Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
37 Completions
Thursday night, the Bengals unleashed their #1 overall pick in a prime-time game – though if you didn’t have NFL network handy, you struggled to find it. Broadcast rights aside, this Browns-Bengals matchup was better than it had any business being. In only his second game of his professional career, Joe Burrow attempted 61 passes, completing 37 of them for 316 yards and 3 TDs with zero interceptions. The 37 completions are a record for rookie passers. Now, perhaps, the Bengals would like to consider acquiring a defense so that their rookie’s arm doesn’t fall off by the end of the season.
50 years
Raheem Mostert, one of 49 (probably) players injured for San Francisco, recorded a feat that hasn’t been done in over 50 years. He became the first player in 50+ years to score a TD of 75+ yards in the first two weeks of a season. Last week, he had a 76-yard TD reception, and yesterday he opened the game with an 80-yard TD run where he was clocked at a blazing 23.09 MPH. Seriously. Get in your car and drive 23 mph and see if anyone could possibly keep up. Hell, Mostert would have been speeding on the street that I grew up on. Limited to only 10 touches since apparently injuries are more contagious than Covid-19 to the 49ers, Mostert still sits as this week’s RB14, and the RB4 on the season. Hopefully Mostert can stay on the field as he has the two fastest speeds clocked by ball carriers this season – and they’re the fastest regular season numbers since 2016.
75,000 Yards
Tom Brady became the second player, behind fellow quadragenarian Drew Brees, to reach the 75,000 passing yards mark. Brady has yet to really impress in a fantasy football sense this season, but he did lead his team to an impressive victory over the, admittedly lame, Carolina Panthers on Sunday. The question of whether Brady still “has it” is unresolved in my mind, but he does win games, so we can go ahead and give him credit for this one. He does need to stop throwing interceptions – that’s 4 games in a row including the playoffs last year. Nonetheless, we celebrate Brady’s 75,000 yards, a distance so damn far that it would take Raheem Mostert nearly 2 hours (111 minutes) running at full speed to cover all those passing yards. You can tack on another 17 minutes to include his playoff yardage.
60+ Fantasy Points
So far in this short season, 4 QBs are averaging 30+ fantasy points per game. Leading the pack is no surprise, it’s Russell Wilson, who has an amazing 82.5% completion rate to go with 9 passing TDs already. It’s the 3 players who also average 30+ per game that may have you surprised. In order, you have Josh Allen, Cam Newton and Kyler Murray. Between them they have 8 rushing TDs, obviously an invaluable asset to fantasy football QBs. Amazingly, Cam Newton has landed here with only 1 passing TD in 2 games so far this season. Last year’s MVP, Lamar Jackson sits just outside the top 10, just a few points ahead of 2020 Rookie of the Beginning of the Year Joe Burrow.
43.6 Fantasy Points
Aaron Jones is insane. This is the note that was my placeholder and I really can’t start this section any better. Since the start of last year, he has 13 games over 15 points (and 2 more games of 14.8 points). Two of those games are over 40 points, 8 of those are 22+ points or better. On Sunday, Jones was everywhere. He carried the ball 18 times for 168 yards, good for a 9.3 yards per carry average. He found the end zone twice on the ground and once more through the air, where he added 4 catches for 68 yards. His performance in Week 2 was so dominant over all other RBs that the difference between Jones and the RB2, Nick Chubb, is an entire Raheem Mostert – 17.8 points! If you take the highest non-QB, non-Jones scorer in Week 2, Calvin Ridley, you would need to increase his output by 65% just to reach Aaron Jones’s performance. This guy is insane, and the Packers are really, really good this year.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
0-6 Record in Their First Start
Trey Lance is the sixth rookie QB to make his first start this season, and in those games, all 6 rookie QBs have posted losses. Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, and Trey Lance are the six rookies. Overall, those rookies only have 5 total wins, with Fields leading the way with two, Wilson with just one win last week in OT over the Titans. Mac Jones also has two victories this year, but interestingly enough, his opponent in both of those wins were also rookie QBs. Of this week’s performers, even though Davis Mills did not win, he was by far the best fantasy rookie QB of the week. Mills threw for 312 yards and 3 TDs for 24.68 fantasy points, good for QB5 on the week (and Mills is only owned in 21% of Fleaflicker leagues). His 141.7 QB rating was the second-best on the week, behind only the GOAT himself, Tom Brady – who posted his 9th career game with 5+ passing TDs (and second of the season).
6 QBs in Tier 1
This season, it’s quite crowded at the top of the QB list. There are 6 QBs that I would consider all in the same playing tier, as they are all within less than a 10%-point difference of each other. On top is Patrick Mahomes, with a surprising 2-3 record, has a league-leading 16 passing TDs, and still leads the league in fantasy points with 136.9 (just edging out Tom Brady’s 136.28). The only other QB with a losing record, Jalen Hurts, is just 11.7 points behind the leader. Of the top 6, Hurts actually has the highest floor – his worst game clocks in at 21.80 points against the 49ers in Week 2. Take that, Kyler Murray, who could only post 13.66 this week against them. Perhaps in all of this I have not given enough credit to the best performer of the week, and the only QB to break the 40-point barrier this season, Justin Herbert. Herbert led his team to an astonishing 47 points, even if they weren’t trying to score a TD on that very last drive.
153 Yards from Scrimmage per Game
While the top of the QB list may be crowded, there is only one name atop the RB list, and that’s King Henry himself. Derrick Henry quietly had 130 rushing yards this week, actually lowering his season average for yards from scrimmage – probably because this is the first game this season that he was not targeted in the passing game. In every other game this year, he has at least two receptions. I suppose that his participation in the passing game wasn’t necessary since the Titans were easily handling the Jaguars, handing them their 20th consecutive loss. Those of you with Henry on your team will just have to settle for the 3 TDs and 31 total points that he gave you. Henry is still on pace to break the single-season yardage record, though at this pace he will definitely need that 17th game to do so. Henry definitely deserves his own tier when looking at the rankings – he’s nearly 20 fantasy points ahead of the second-best RB, Austin Ekeler, who in turn is 16+ points ahead of the 3rd highest scoring RB this year, some slouch named Zeke that’s apparently barely worth mentioning. Of course, I kid, but Henry’s dominance is amazing. The best WRs have just a fraction over 100 fantasy points through 5 games.
3 Franchise Records
Alvin Kamara picked a good week to finally put up a performance worthy of his first-round draft status. While he’s been OK this year, this week was his first game over 20 fantasy points, his most receiving yards in a game, his most yards from scrimmage in a game, and the most TDs he’s scored in a game all season. Along the way this week, he set three franchise records that are so very Kamara-esque. He had his 9th game with a rushing and receiving TD, his 12th game to go over 50 yards rushing and receiving, and his 19th multiple TD game. Kamara now sits as the RB9 on the season, not a terrible spot to be in, but when you look at the draft capital you would have spent on the RB10 guy, James Robinson, it’s hard not to think that perhaps if you drafted Alvin Kamara, you definitely overpaid (so far). Hopefully, the Saints can keep him rolling when they return from their bye in Week 7.
10 Receptions for 189 Yards
Pardon me while I take a victory lap with Kadarius Toney’s performance on Sunday. Last week I called him as a sleeper who could turn in a top-10 performance, and he did just that. Toney led the Giants in targets for the second week in a row, seeing 13 targets where the second-highest total was only 5. Unfortunately for Toney and the Giants, the injury bug has hit them in a very serious way. Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones both exited the game and were carted off before halftime. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard both missed their second consecutive game. Their offensive line is in shambles. 7 of their 11 opening day starters are now out with injury, leaving a team that was on the upswing for a moment reeling. Toney is now probably their best offensive weapon, and despite only having Mike Glennon throwing to him for now, he’s probably in line for another high-volume game next week against the Rams, though I hesitate to start him against that passing defense. Looking at their numbers on the season, however, the Rams are giving up the 15th most fantasy points to opposing WRs and are susceptible to giving up good games to players with lots of targets.
Bring out your dead! It's one of the worst weeks in recent memory in the NFL for injuries (please don't count them on me), so let's have a not-so-quick roundup of all of the fantasy relevant guys who we need to monitor going in to Week 6.
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
162.1 Total Fantasy Points
Derrick Henry didn’t score another 3 TDs this week, but he didn’t need to in order to finish the week as the highest scoring player in all of fantasy football for the 2021 season. Henry, who scored just 15.4 points this week, actually brought his average down to 27 points per game, in part because he failed to find the end zone. He did manage to throw a touchdown, however, salvaging his worst fantasy performance since Week 1 of this season. Speaking of bad fantasy performances, Patrick Mahomes put up his second worst fantasy game ever (Week 7 of 2019 was the only game worse). This poor performance left just enough of a window for Henry to pass Mahomes for the season-long lead. The last time a non-QB finished with the most fantasy points at the end of a season was Todd Gurley in 2017, who manage to do that in only 15 games.
201 Receiving Yards
This week, Ja’Marr Chase announced his presence as not only an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate (he was already in the lead for that) but as one of the best wide receivers in the game right now. Chase is now the WR2 through 7 games on the season, finished just behind Cooper Kupp for both the season and Week 7-point totals. Chase had a career high 201 receiving yards, helped along by an 82-yard touchdown reception – a short pass where he got the ball over the middle and did the rest of the work himself. This was Chase’s second game with 10 targets. He leads the league with 21.5 yards per reception and is second only to Kupp in season long yardage. Chase is doing the most with what he’s given. He has only 35 receptions on the whole season (on pace for 85 for the year, though I would bet on the over for that). By contrast, Kupp has more receptions (56) than Chase even has targets (51). Chase’s 3.6 points per touch is an amazing number, one that is unmatched by anyone in the league so far.
28.54 Fantasy Points
The best free agent of the week, at least in the drinkfive.com “experts” league, is Tua Tagovailoa, owned in 71% of Fleaflicker leagues, but not this one. Tua is not only the best free agent of the week, he’s the best QB of the week, out of all players. Tua just edges out his 2020 draft mate, Joe Burrow, who led his team to a very impressive 41-17 victory over the Ravens. Tue finishes as the 4th highest scoring player on the week, before the two WRs mentioned above and the man who gave away Tom Brady’s 600th touchdown catch. Thankfully for Mike Evans, the fan gave it back, so he doesn’t have to get the cold shoulder from Brady for the rest of the season. Tua had a rough start to this season, but after a few weeks off for injury, he has returned and played very well at QB. In 2 games he has 6 touchdowns (and 3 picks, yuck). He has also run for over 20 yards in each game, and is averaging 25.45 points per game during this stretch. With games against Houston, New York Jets, and Carolina coming up, he’s a great streaming option to keep around for a while.
89.47% Catch Rate
The highest catch rate in the NFL belongs to Bengals TE C.J. Uzomah, who has caught 17 of his 19 targets so far this season (Pat Freiermuth leads the league at 90%). Uzomah has had quite the up-and-down season. He’s currently the TE10 on the year with 64.1 total fantasy points, however, 46.6 of those points (almost 73% of his total points) came in weeks 4 and 7. He finished as the TE1 in week 4 and currently leads the field in week 7 with no looming threats to overtake him on Monday night. Despite his fantasy high points, he’s a very tough player to start. He has only one week with more than 3 targets, and that was just 6 in week 4. Despite this, he’s managed to find the end zone 5 times in the last 4 games, so perhaps it’s time to find a way to insert him into your lineup, and maybe more than just a streaming option. Oh yea, and if you’re wondering, Rondale Moore has the highest catch percentage among wide receivers at 83.87%. Jaylen Waddle has the highest catch percentage among WRs with more than 50 targets with 77.19%.
602 Career Touchdowns
There was one thing happening this week that I just had to mention, and no, it’s not National Tight Ends Day. Raise your hand if you’re sick of hearing about that. No, this week Tom Brady threw his 600th touchdown in the regular season. And his 599th, and numbers 601 and 602 if we’re counting them all. Of course, we are. This season, Brady is leading the league with 21 passing touchdowns. Matthew Stafford is in 2nd with 19. Brady also has a rushing touchdown, for good measure. He has 26 of those in his career. In addition, the ageless one is leading the league in completions, passing attempts, passing yards, and yards per game. Pretty good for anyone, unprecedented for a 44-year-old in the NFL. The yards per game mark is his second highest in his entire career, and he’s ahead of his career averages in completion percentage, interception percentage, and QB rating. I suppose if you’re going to play so many years in the NFL, you might as well make them count instead of just playing out the streak. In a league with so much great young QB talent, Brady might still be the best one each and every Sunday that he steps on the field. And I don’t mean that as an overall picture, I mean that right freaking now, he’s the best QB in football.