Fantasy Football is here and drafts are either already going on or just around the corner. Here at drinkfive, we're updating our rankings, watching all the preseason film we can get our hands on, and kicking the Fantasy Finish Line podcast into high gear.
On this episode of the Fantasy Finish Line podcast - your hosts Jason Evans and David Biggs are talking about active QB controversies and training camp battles leading into the 2021 season that will affect the fortunes of quite a few fantasy footballers. Stay on top of the latest news and analysis by listening to the show!
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- Various original music by David Biggs
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Since we’re doing a podcast on Tuesday night this week, let’s return to an old favorite and go over some good waiver pickups for Week 5. All players owned in less than 50% of Fleaflicker leagues, and FAAB bid suggestions are a percentage of your total budget.
QB
Teddy Bridgewater (CAR, 42% owned, FAAB 5%) – Bridgewater is legitimately trending up with improved performances over the last 3 weeks. Now, in Week 5, he gets to face the Falcons who have surrendered essentially 30 fantasy points to the QB position of their opponent every single week. This is a great fill-in if you have injury or bye concerns. Week 6 vs Chi is not great, but then Week 7 is another top matchup against the Saints. Christian McCaffrey could be back by that game as well. Bridgewater is gelling with his receivers nicely and the Panthers are now on a little 2 game win streak.
Kirk Cousins (MIN, 64% owned, FAAB 6-7%) – Cousins had a truly abysmal outing in Week 2, but it turns out that the Colts defense is really good, so we can probably write that one-off. Now he’s got consecutive games against the teams giving up the second and most points to opposing QBs. Both teams, Seattle and Atlanta, are giving up an average of 30+ points per game. Cousins has a very reliable run game that opposing defenses will be forced to focus on before the pass. He’s also found a great connection with his rookie WR, Justin Jefferson. Combine that with Adam Thielen trending up and you’re going to find Kirk Cousins in the top 5 QBs the next couple of weeks.
RB
Damien Harris (NE, 43% owned, FAAB 15-18%) – Harris was quite impressive on Monday Evening Football, putting up a perfect 10.0. Well, I suppose he could have done a bit better, but 100 yards on 17 carries is a nice average. This is the kind of production that will keep you in the lineup on the Patriots, especially with Sony Michel heading to the IR yesterday. Now, traditionally starting RBs for the Patriots is a recipe for driving yourself insane, but let’s just look at their current stable of RBs. Damien Harris is in line to take almost all of the early-down work, provided the game is not getting out of hand. The Patriots defense should keep them in every game. James White will get almost all of the 3rd down work, and as demonstrated last night, even when he’s playing well, he won’t see much – if any – work on early downs. Sprinkle in a little Rex Burkhead and that’s your rotation. I see Harris as a high floor player with a decent ceiling if he can find the end zone. Just know that when Cam comes back, Harris will probably Cede some goal-line and short-yardage work to him, but then again, he was probably already going to lose a few of those carries to Burkhead anyways.
Justin Jackson (LAC, 22% owned, FAAB 10-12%) – Jackson did not produce much in limited work on Sunday, but he’s been able to produce in the past and he’s definitely going to be given opportunities. The Chargers have always worked with more of a split in carries than most teams, and they should continue to do that with Ekeler out. Joshua Kelley will see the largest boost in production on the team, but he’s a rookie and I do not see him getting 3-down work at all. Kelley has also lost a fumble in consecutive games, and any more of that will see him lose carries. Jackson had an impressive 6.9 yards per carry last season, and his rookie year showed him as effective in the passing game. He’s had a small sample size over his whole career, but now is when he can get sustained work and string a few good games together in a bid to get a larger share of the RB work for the Chargers.
D’Ernest Johnson (CLE, 2% owned, FAAB 13-15%) – Nick Chubb is headed to the IR, and that means that D’Ernest Johnson is the next man up in Cleveland. Johnson looked very good in his first actual game where he got a decent amount of work. This was against a Cowboys team that allowed a franchise-record number of rushing yards. Johnson produced 95 yards on only 13 carries, good for a 7.3 ypc average. Thus far this season, the Browns have been quick to swap between Chubb and Hunt, especially as the game goes on. I expect this to continue with Johnson and Hunt – perhaps with Johnson replacing more of Chubb’s carries instead of Hunt and keeping Hunt in a similar role to what he has now. The Browns are leading the league in rushing yards and are 2nd in rushing attempts, so their 2nd RB is a must-own.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB, 41% owned, FAAB 5-8%) – Vaughn has had a rough start to his rookie campaign. Injury and a positive COVID test in the preseason basically kept him out of training camp. Now that Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy have been sidelined with injuries, there’s room for Vaughn to show his stuff. He had only 5 touches but did find the end zone. Any RB that can connect with Tom Brady in the passing game has potential for a high ceiling, once his usage goes up. For now, I like Vaughn as a bench stash, though he can be used in an emergency situation this week if you need. The Bucs play on Thursday night and the quick turnaround will make it tough for their injured RBs to return by then. Fresh legs will be at a premium, and while the Bears have a solid defense this year, they have resigned themselves to Tom Brady being one of their co-owners along with the McCaskeys.
WR
Cole Beasley (BUF, 44% owned, FAAB 8%) – Beasley has been very fantasy relevant this season because Josh Allen is playing like he deserves some MVP consideration. Usually, a really strong passing offense can support 3 WRs in fantasy, and the Bills are apparently one of those offenses this season. Beasley had 20 targets through 3 games going into last week and was getting good work until he went out with an injury in the 2nd half of the game in Las Vegas. Beasley did return later in the game, and the injury came on a spectacular TD catch, so I don’t expect Beasley to miss too much time. This team is just too exciting to stay away for long. This week, the Bills are scheduled to play the Titans, so keep an eye on Beasley’s practice attendance, as well as the Titans COVID testing results. As of the time of writing, the Titans have gone 2 straight days with no new positives, which means that they can open their facilities tomorrow, barring any new developments. I like Beasley as an injury/bye week replacement and a guy you should keep on your roster since he will move up the depth chart if there are any long-term injuries to Diggs or Brown.
Laviska Shenault (JAX, 47% owned, FAAB 5%) – Shenault is a rookie and all rookies are going to have growing pains, however, the Jaguars really like this rookie and are trying their best to get the ball in his hand. He has at least 5 touches in every game this season. He also has at least one rushing attempt in every game and last week put up a season-high of 91 yards from scrimmage. The bigger worry with the Jaguars is whether Minshew Mania is for real or not. After a surprise win against the Colts in Week 1, the Jaguars have lost 3 straight and now must go to Houston to face a team that will be fired up after finally ridding themselves of Bill O’Brien. Shenault is just behind Cole and Chark for the receiving yardage lead on his team. 5 players on the team have over 130 receiving yards on the season already, showing that Minshew likes to spread the ball around. Any changes in the depth chart will benefit Shenault and he is a TD away from a very good performance any week. Consider him a bench stash, for now, to be used to fill in for byes and injuries, especially if his team is getting a good matchup.
Tee Higgins (CIN, 45% owned, FAAB 10%) – Higgins just dwarfs everybody on the field when you see him on TV. He lines up at WR, but wears 85 (why do so few WRs not wear numbers in the 80’s anymore?) and is easily mistaken for a TE. He’s 6’4” but runs a lot faster than you expect him to. He’s an elite WR talent and is just starting to find his groove. Now that the Bengals finally have a win under their belt, they have some very tough matchups. I fully expect Joe Burrow to continue throwing the ball a lot – he is currently second in the league for passing attempts. Higgins leads his team in yards per reception, is second in receiving yards, and third in targets. I expect his target share to grow with A.J. Green struggling as he has. This is a young man’s league, and Green is not that anymore. Get Higgins on your bench now while he’s still cheap. The Bengals have a much softer schedule when it’s time for you to make your playoff push.
Scott Miller (TB, 29% owned, FAAB 8%) – Miller is officially trending up in several categories, including receptions, targets, and fantasy points. The Bucs keep running into injuries, so there’s going to be plenty of playing time for Miller going forward. Tom Brady also seems to be up to his old tricks with a 5 TD game (to 5 different players). With Brady getting in the groove with his new team, there will be plenty of fantasy potential out there. Miller is going to see lots of targets as long as Chris Godwin remains out (for this week most likely) and Mike Evans keeps getting banged up (every week it seems). This week doesn’t seem to be a great matchup for him, however as I mentioned earlier, Tom Brady owns the Bears, so you could do a lot worse than Scott Miller as a bye week or injury replacement.
Tim Patrick (DEN, 8% owned, FAAB 3%) – Patrick is a deep league option, but has all the signs you look for when grabbing a waiver wire player. He’s trending up on a team that has an injury above him on the depth chart. He has increased his receptions each of the last 3 weeks, along with his yardage and fantasy points. He’s also scored a touchdown each of the last two weeks. With Brett Rypien filling in the next week at least, at least he and Patrick have a bit of a downfield rapport developing. However, they’re going to New England, who will smother them on the pass defense. The only solace may be that the Broncos could find themselves down by enough points that they have to throw the ball deep anyways. Grab Patrick as a cheap bench stash if you can’t get any of the players listed above and wait until he has easier games to take a flyer on him in your lineup.
TE
Robert Tonyan (GB, 31% owned, FAAB 10%) – Tonyan will be on bye in Week 5, so he’s not going to be there for you if you need someone this week, but he looks like one of Rodgers’s favorite targets this year. Tonyan has a touchdown in all 3 games that he started this year and put up an incredible 6 rec, 98-yard, 3 TD performance on Monday Night Football yesterday. Tonyan was making the Falcons secondary look foolish, and it’s clear that he’s caught Rogers’s eye. Tonyan will be one of the hottest waiver pickups this week, and if people with big budgets in your league need TEs, you will probably need to double that FAAB to 20% or more to have a shot at landing him. When the Packers return, even with Davante Adams, I expect Tonyan to be a relevant TE1 for the rest of the season.
Dalton Schultz (DAL, 49% owned, FAAB 8%) – Schultz found the end zone for the second time this season on Sunday and he currently sits as the TE8 after 4 games. With Dak Prescott throwing the ball so much and so well, there will be plenty of work for Schultz. He already has 28 targets on the season and there’s not a lot of competition for his spot on the Cowboys depth chart. As long as Dak keeps throwing the ball like he has been, and there’s no reason to expect otherwise, Schultz will be in the TE1 conversation based on volume alone.
Often we don't look far enough ahead to be able to make intelligent decisions for our rosters going forward 2, 3, or even more games. Let's play chess here and look into some players that are trending up overall that I think will continue to provide fantasy value deeper into the season. All of these guys are also very obtainable either through the waiver wire or buy buying them from an opponent while they're still cheap!
QB Teddy Bridgewater is the 15th highest scoring QB this season, putting up 92.74 fantasy points over 5 games. Although he started slow (which makes sense after the coaching and player changes that Carolina made over the last year), he has averaged almost 300 passing yards and 2 TDs over the past 2 matchups with Atlanta and Arizona, not including a rushing TD against the Cardinals in Week 4. Bridgewater has the cast to back up his rising numbers with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson at wideout (and Curtis Samuel is one of the best #3 WRs in the league), but one of the biggest indicators that Bridgewater will have continued success is that even without the #1 pick of most fantasy football drafts this season (Christian McCaffrey), the Panthers offense has been able to put up big numbers and continue to utilize fill-in Mike Davis in a similar way. The guy had 25 touches last week including 10 targets which resulted in 9 receptions for 60 yards and a TD. That is what we like to see when looking for a fantasy QB that excels... a pass-catching RB that scores TDs every game. That’s what we have here, folks.
RB Myles Gaskin probably should not be on this list – and we probably shouldn’t be talking about the Dolphins in general this season, right? But hey, here we are. He’s the 27th highest scoring RB this year, with 45.6 fantasy points, 17.60 coming in Week 5’s routing of the 49ers. But Gaskin has not had a game below 7.7 fantasy points this season and is in general still trending up. With a matchup against everyone’s favorite New York Jets this week (currently allowing the 6th most points to RBs with 24.9 per game), he should continue that trend. Admittedly, a lot of Gaskin’s value depends on Fitzpatrick staying under center for as long as possible, but that seems to be the likely situation in Miami for quite a while as they allow Tua Tagovailoa to develop slowly and learn the offense. Gaskin is currently ranked as RB26 by the FantasyPros ECR, but I have him at #22. This team is hot, and you know what they say about irons.
WR Mike Williams is currently the #50 WR overall in Half PPR scoring with 38.9 points. Although only putting up 7 receptions for 100 yards over the first 3 games of the season and going out with a hamstring injury in week 3 against the Panthers, he has stepped up in a big way starting with this most recent week’s performance. In Week 5’s loss to the Saints he caught 5 passes for 109 yards and 2 TDs for a 25.40-point performance. Welcome back to fantasy relevance, Mike! This is the start of a positive trend for Williams which coincides with the rise of the Chargers’ rookie QB, Justin Herbert. Herbert started in Week 2 against the Chiefs due to the botched pain-killing injection before the game and has retained the job ever since. He has played better each subsequent game and is himself an honorable mention for the ‘Boom!’ tag as a QB. Granted, Keenan Allen came out of the game in the 2nd quarter with back spasms, but Herbert is throwing well enough and for enough yards now that he can easily support both receivers in this offense. Williams has a very good chance to get back to his level of success in 2019 (50ish receptions for 1000ish yards). In fact, he already matched the number of TDs (2) just from showing up on Monday Night Football.
TE Austin Hooper is currently ranked TE15 from the FantasyPros ECR, and I think that is a little low considering the trend that I am seeing and how I project him to perform over the next several games. He has scored only 29.8 fantasy points so far in Half PPR which makes him the #22 ranked TE over 5 games, but his targets have increased over the last 3 weeks from 4 to 7 and then to 10. Last week against the Colts, Hooper caught 5 passes for 57 yards. The previous week he also caught 5 passes and scored a TD. With the Browns’ offense stepping up this year and scoring 30 points in 4 straight games for the first time since 1968, it is impossible to ignore that Cleveland may be doing some things right this season. Hooper obviously had a hell of a resume from Atlanta, and the signs of life that we’re seeing now are really encouraging! The next 3 matchups (PIT, CIN, LV) don’t look great on paper, but with all of the threats both on the ground and in the air in Cleveland, Hooper is not attracting much of the secondary so far in 2020. Capitalize on that!
Week 4 was not kind to many across the league. Only one undefeated team remains, Tom Brady barely escaped Foxboro with a victory, Matt Nagy has saved his job for another week, Urban Meyer might have lost his job (certainly his locker room), and we learned that even domes can have weather delays. Not sure who to thank for that last one, probably El Niño. Regardless, let's get updated on what you need to know going in to Week 5.
That's it for this week! Make sure to join us live on the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Wednesday at 9pm CST. Bring us your lineup questions, trade evaluations, and things you generally need advice on in your life. We're guaranteed not to make it any worse than it already is.