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The preseason is in full swing, complete with ACL tears and bad teams looking really good. Most importantly, it's draft time, and as is tradition, we've set aside one week per position. This week, we kick it all off with Quarterbacks.  Check out our Quarterback, and every other position rankings.

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast: 8/18/15, The Preseason QB Show!)

We talked about the QB's with good draft value like Palmer, Romo and Rivers. We talked about a few bad values in Newton and Kaepernick. We also took a look at the rookies, Winston and Mariota. Finally, we check in on the QB battles in Buffalo and Houston.

Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes to get notifications whenever we release a new episode. We also broadcast the shows live at http://www.mixlr.com/drinkfive on Tuesday nights at 9pm CT. Feel free to browse over and join in the discussion!

The fantasy season is almost upon us, and every year we like to take the preseason to break down each position individually. We’ll be starting this year with the Quarterbacks. This article will focus on QB’s that have good draft value, and others that do not. Remember, this isn’t exactly who’s going to land in or out of the top 10 this year, but it’s who you can target, or avoid, in a draft to get yourself the best roster.

For a more in-depth discussion, check out our podcast from 8/18/15, The QB Show!

QB’s that have good value:

Can Palmer start all 16 games this season?

Carson Palmer - #11 on our rankings, Palmer is an excellent QB, when healthy. The Cardinals have a decent offense which was able to move the ball when Palmer was out last year. Their defense will make sure the offense gets plenty of possessions. Palmer has an ECR of 19, giving him the largest gap of any QB on our list. His ADP of 22 (153 overall) means that you can take him at the end of nearly every draft, and have a guy that we think should finish just outside the top 10.

Palmer Targets: Fitz!, Michael Floyd, Jaron & John Brown, Andre Ellington, CJ?K, Whoever starts at TE.

Relevant stats: Arizona threw the ball 35.1 times per game in 2014, right in the middle of the pack for the NFL. Palmer is on a 3-year trend upward (extrapolating last year's stats over 16 games). The Cardinals' window is closing fast, look for them to pull out all the stops to make a Super Bowl run this year.

Tom Brady - #8 on our rankings, he has an ECR of 14, mostly, I suspect, due to his looming suspension. If he plays all 16, I think he’ll go up a bit. Overall, I think we underestimate Tom every year, and every year he’s playing in January, so he must be doing something right. What we do know about Brady is that he has Gronk, and it doesn’t really matter who else is there.

Brady Targets: Edelman, Gronk!, Tyms, Amendola, Bolden/White/Blount/Gray, Reggie Wayne (New!), LaFell

Relevant stats: The Pats threw the ball 38.6 times per game last year, 7th most in the league. Brady has thrown over 30 TD's in 4 of the last 5 seasons, and usually keeps the INT's low. Don't be fooled by the lack of targets, it's never bothered Brady.

Tony Romo - #5 on our rankings, he has an ECR of 9 and an ADP of 8. Romo’s value is going up, he’s currently being drafted about 1 round higher than his overall ranking would put him, however we rank him even higher, so there is still value to be had here. Romo is a tough QB leading what is likely to be a top 5 offense in the NFL this season. Romo is the highest tier QB with a good value rating.

Romo Targets: Dez Bryant (over 135 targets each of the last 3 years), Witten, Williams, Beasley, Randle/Dunbar/McFadden

Relevant stats: Last year, Dallas threw the ball only 29.2 times per game, the second fewest in the league. Romo made the most of the times he did throw the ball, leading the league in completion % (69.9), TD % (7.8) and yards per pass attempt (8.5). He has been trending up in TD's and down in INT's over the last 3 years. Romo is playing better than he ever has and will need to pick up the slack after Demarco Murray's departure. Don't worry about his age either, he may be over 35, but he's only started 20 more games than Rodgers, so he has plenty of football left in him.

This guy got $65 million...

Philip Rivers - #10 on our rankings, his ECR is 13, so we’re not too far off there, but it’s a game of inches, isn’t it? Rivers just got a huge new contract, with something like $65 mil GUARANTEED. That means it’s his job to now go out and prove to the team that he deserves it. The Chargers’ ground game got a big upgrade this season, drafting Melvin Gordon #14 overall. This should take a bit of pressure off Rivers. Rivers had 31 TD’s, but also 18 INT’s. He’s generally not that errant of a passer, so if he can cut down on the picks, he will finish in the top 10 yet again.

Rivers Targets: Allen, Malcom Floyd, Jacoby Jones, Stevie Johnson (dave’s guy!), Gates/Green, Gordon/Woodhead/Oliver

Relevant stats: San Diego threw the ball 35.9 times per game last season, 14th in the league, but threw it 43 times per game in the last 3 games, two of which were against division opponents. Rivers has gone over 4000 yards in 6 of the last 7 seasons and over 30 TD's in 5 of them. He's wonderfully consistent and can be counted on to be in the top 12 every years. Pick him up when he's available late. Oh yea, the new contract doesn't hurt his outlook any.

QB’s that are overvalued:

Colin Kaepernick – Kaepernick is ranked 22 on our sheets and has an ECR of 15. He won’t be drafted as a starter in standard leagues anyways, but I wanted to just reiterate how much we do not like the 49ers offense this year. The rankings, thankfully, agree with us. His overall stats for the last 3 years have been underwhelming, so let someone else reach for him as their backup QB.

Kaepernick Targets: Boldin, Smith, Davis, Hyde/Bush – See why we aren’t hyped?

Relevant stats: the 49ers threw the ball only 30.4 times per game last year, good for 29th in the league. Kaepernick already only completes 60.1% of his passes through his career, so you need to rely on his feet to get you big points. The problem there is that his rushing TD's have gone from 5 to 4 to 1. Are you ready to bet it's going back up to 5? His Int's are the other alarming trend, going up each year that he's been in the league.

Cam's job got a lot harder with Benjamin going down.

Cam Newton – Newton has a rank of 13 on our sheet, but an ECR of 7. He’s clearly favored by pundits and fans alike, but our rankings sheet is not so high on him. Newton has slightly regressed in his stat line every year since he broke into the league back in 2011. Even though it may “feel” like Newton is due to rebound back to what he had his rookie year, his risk is not worth the price you have to pay. His ceiling is actually rather low, especially considering he will run less and less as he gets older. It’s not worth it, in my opinion, to draft a guy as the 7^th best QB when he really only has a shot at being #5 at the very highest.

Newton Targets: Benjamin, Ginn, Funchess, Cotchery, Corey Brown, Olsen, Stewart/Tolbert/Whittaker

Relevant stats: Carolina threw the ball 34.1 times per game last season, but Newton only has a career 59.5 completion %. Newton has also only thrown the ball about 31 times per game in his career, so I expect his pass attempts to stay flat, at best. Newton was only the 16th best fantasy QB last year, right above our buddy Kaepernick. At least he's above the Andy Dalton line.

Ryan Tannehill - #14 in our rankings, Tannehill is a guy who we have been pumping up all year, and it looks like we’re not the only ones. His ECR is 10, so the experts like him, and his ADP of 13 indicates that he hasn’t quite caught up to his ECR in the rest of the fantasy world. Here’s the thing though, Tannehill is the QB who is being hyped as the best value or biggest jump from last year. News like this spreads like wildfire and the draft season is now in full swing. Just this past weekend, I was in a draft where he was the 7th overall QB taken, late in the 6th round.

Tannehill Targets: Landry, Cameron, Jennings, Parker, Miller, Stills

Relevant stats: Miami was in the top half of the league, throwing the ball 37.2 times per game in 2014. Tannehill's stats have generally been trending up over his first three years in the league. They just got Jordan Cameron and drafted Devante Parker. Yes, things are looking up for Ryan Tannehill, but the secret's out. He's got a good shot at going too early in your draft. Give a silent nod and just move on. If he's available closer to his ADP of 13, then go for it.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re just a few weeks out from NFL training camp, so that means it’s time once again to turn your attention back to fantasy football (if you’re one of those crazy people that stops thinking about it during the offseason). Today is part one of my 4-part look at the incoming rookie class that I call the “Rookie Fact Sheet”. Today we look at the quarterback class, but I’ll have more coming on the running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends soon. 

The concept is simple. I’m going to give you some facts related to this year’s quarterback class based on things like college production, draft capital, and what those things have historically meant for NFL production. Then, I’ll tell you how I interpret those facts for 2021 and/or beyond. Since many of you in dynasty leagues have already had your rookie drafts, this series will slant more toward redraft leagues, but there will be some fun dynasty tidbits for you as well. Without further ado, let’s dive in…

FACT: 

Since 1990, only 3 non-FBS (or Division 1-A as it was previously known) QBs have been drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.

Steve McNair – Four top-5 fantasy seasons, six top-10 seasons, nine top-20 seasons.

Joe Flacco – One top-10 season, three top-15 seasons, eight top-20 seasons.

Carson Wentz – One top-5 season, two top-10 seasons, five seasons as a QB2 or better

What It Means:

Don’t be afraid to draft Trey Lance just because he went to North Dakota State. The league has identified 3 QBs in the last 30 years that played at the FCS level as being good enough to be taken in the first round of the draft, and all 3 turned out to be pretty good. Don’t be afraid of the lower level of competition that he faced. 

FACT: 

Since 2000, only 7 quarterbacks who ran for over 1,000 yards in a college season were drafted in the first or second round of the NFL draft – Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Colin Kaepernick, Deshaun Watson, and Vince Young. 

Five of them have posted a top-10 fantasy season, and Hurts could make it six this season. Watson and Newton each have multiple top-5 seasons, and Lamar Jackson has posted a QB1 season. 

What It Means:

This is another Trey Lance fact. Lance ran for 1,100 yards in 2019 for North Dakota State, and became the 8th QB on this list when he was drafted. I expect that Jimmy Garoppolo will probably open the season as the starting QB for the 49ers, but I don’t think it will take long to turn the page to Lance even if they’re winning games early on. This is a roster that if healthy is likely to win games even if Garoppolo is holding the offense back. The last time Kyle Shanahan had a dynamic runner at QB like this was in 2012 with Washington and RG3. Griffin ended that season as the QB5 with over 800 rushing yards, and Washington finished the year ranked 4th in the league in points and 5th in total yards. If Shanahan thinks Lance can open up this offense the same way that Griffin did back in ’12, he won’t hesitate to make the switch. Lance is a player I would be targeting in the later rounds of 1 QB leagues, and might even be willing to take as a QB2 in superflex and 2QB formats. Just make sure to get a 3rd QB who will open the year as a starter. I expect Lance to be a fringe QB1 as a rookie in weeks where he has the job. 

FACT:

Three quarterbacks other than Justin Fields have posted 40 passing touchdowns and 400 rushing yards in one college season and then been drafted into the NFL.

Deshaun Watson – Three consecutive top-5 fantasy seasons

Kyler Murray – Back-to-back top-10 seasons to start his career, including a top-5 finish in 2020.

Marcus Mariota – Four consecutive QB2 finshes when he was a starter. He didn’t play 16 games in any of those seasons.

What It Means: 

Fields’ ceiling at the NFL level is sky high. I hope we’ve moved past the harebrained idea that Fields is going to be a bust just because he went to Ohio State. Fields is just the third ever 1st-round QB drafted out of Ohio State, and one of them was drafted nearly 40 years ago (Art Schlichter), so if you’re using OSU as a knock against him, you’re basically saying you don’t like him because Dwayne Haskins was a bust. Fields has exactly the kind of fantasy upside you should be chasing in leagues, and he landed in an offense that made Alex Smith into the QB4 in 2017, and Mitch Trubisky into the QB11 in points per game in 2018. Like Trey Lance, he might not open the season as the starter, but he’s going to force Matt Nagy’s hand sooner than later. You should be drafting him as a mid-QB2 in redraft leagues. Like with Lance, just make sure you have a fill-in for the early weeks if it’s superflex. 

FACT: 

Since 2000, nine rookie QBs have finished as the QB14 or better. All nine had at least one wide receiver on the roster who had posted a top-10 fantasy season (non-PPR) prior to that season. 

Among the 5 first-round QBs this season, only Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields have a past top-10 WR as a teammate.

What It Means:

If you want to make an upside bet on a rookie QB in redraft leagues this year, Lawrence and Fields are probably the two to target. Neither Trey Lance nor Zach Wilson will have a receiver that has previously posted a top-24 season, and Mac Jones’ top target Nelson Agholor hasn’t finished higher than the WR22. Having a top-10 WR doesn’t automatically mean a QB will be a top finisher (14 of the 32 rookie QBs who started 11+ games and didn’t finish in the top-14 in that span had a previous top-10 WR as a teammate), but since 2000 it has seemingly been a prerequisite to finishing as a QB1 or close to it. If you’re drafting a rookie QB to start for your fantasy team you’re definitely living dangerously, but Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields are the best bets to be worthwhile starters. 

FACT:

In his last six seasons as head coach at Ohio State, Urban Meyer’s quarterbacks threw for 38 or more touchdowns in 4 of them.

What It Means: 

Urban Meyer has a reputation of having a run-heavy offensive system, but that system has resulted in high-volume passing touchdown totals in many of Meyer’s most recent seasons as coach. Trevor Lawrence has been kind of overlooked since training camp started as videos of Trey Lance and Justin Fields throwing dimes have popped up on twitter, but there’s a reason why Lawrence was pretty much the consensus QB1 in this class. He’s got plenty of receiving weapons and is almost assured to be the week 1 starter. Lawrence is the safest of the rookie QBs in re-draft. 

FACT:

Mac Jones is the first quarterback selected in the first round of the NFL draft on a team coached by Bill Belichick.

What It Means:

There isn’t too much to read into this one. Belichick stumbled upon Tom Brady as a 6th round pick in 2000 and hasn’t had much need to pick a QB in the first round since. Jimmy Garoppolo, picked back in 2014, was the only second rounder Belichick had ever picked. The one thing I’ll mention here is that there is a narrative that Bill Belichick won’t play rookies early on, but in reality 14 of the 18 first round picks Belichick has made in his time as Patriots’ head coach have played in at least 12 games as rookies. Only N’Keal Harry and Ben Watson appeared in fewer than 8 games as rookies. The QB position is sometimes viewed differently, but again we have no track record of what Bill will do with a first-round rookie signal-caller because he’s never had one. I expect Cam Newton to open the season as starter, but don’t be surprised if Mac is playing sooner than expected. 

FACT: 

20 Quarterbacks scored 240+ fantasy points in 2020. 

Since 2000, only 2 quarterbacks not drafted in the first round scored 240+ points or more as a rookie: Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson, and both scored more than 60 fantasy points rushing the ball.

What It Means:

This one is pretty straightforward. If a quarterback wasn’t drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, he shouldn’t be on your radar for redraft leagues. Only 2 such QBs in the last 2 decades scored enough points as a rookie that they would’ve been a top-20 QB last year. If you’re going to throw a late dart at a guy like this, it should be a guy that has the ability to add points with his legs. Davis Mills seems to have a clear path to win playing time early on as a rookie, but he totaled 86 rushing yards in 14 college games. Kyle Trask, who appears to be in line to back up Tom Brady in Tampa, rushed for 54 yards in 27 college games.

There are 3 QBs drafted after the first round this year that do have running ability. Kellen Mond, Ian Book, and Sam Ehlinger all posted a 500-yard rushing season in college. Book and Ehlinger both appear to be no higher than 3rd on their team depth charts this season (Ehlinger may be 2nd with the Wentz injury, but it seems inevitable that they add a veteran QB). That leaves just Kellen Mond, who would likely step in as the starter if anything were to happen to Kirk Cousins. Kirk Cousins has missed just one game in the last 6 seasons, and it was a week 17 game where he was rested because the Vikings were locked into their playoff position. Leave Mond to the waiver wire unless an injury does occur, even in 2-QB leagues.

That’s all I’ve got for now. I’ll be back soon with the rookie fact sheets on the running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, and eventually my rookie rankings for 2021. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if there’s anything you want to yell at me about written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.