Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Christmas is indeed the time of giving.

And this year, the NFL is giving us a double-header on Christmas Day and a Saturday triple-header to go with our regular slate of games. Let’s face it, we’ll all need some sort of a distraction from our families, now we have it! (just kidding, family members who might be reading this!)

Happy Holidays everyone!!

Week 17 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – BUFFALO over New York Jets – Better late than never for the Rodgers/Adams connection to start clicking again … won’t matter this week though!

15 – TAMPA BAY over Carolina – Hosting Carolina is needed after losing to a depleted Cowboys team.

14 – PHILADELPHIA over Dallas - …and the Eagles will show the Bucs just what to do with the aforementioned depleted Cowboys.

13 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Arizona – I told you weeks ago that the Rams were ready to go on a tear

12 – Seattle over CHICAGO – Just two more games Bears fans …

11 – Indianapolis over NEW YORK GIANTS – When you’re hanging on for dear life to your playoff hopes, a game against the Giants is just what you need! My BOLD PREDCITION for this week is that THE COLTS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

10 – WASHINGTON over Atlanta – Can’t play the Giants every week, Mr. Penix

9 – Detroit over SAN FRANCISCO – This won’t have the same feel as last year’s NFC Championship game

8 – CINCINNATI over Denver – The Broncos won’t be able to score enough to keep up

7 – HOUSTON over Baltimore – The Texans need to play like they need this one, because they do.

6 – Los Angeles Chargers over NEW ENGLAND – If they can get more weapons for Drake Maye, the Pats could be a sneaky team next year.

5 – Green Bay over MINNESOTA – It’s sad to say, but the Packers are legit.

4 – JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee – Someone has to win this one …

3 – CLEVELAND over Miami - …and this one…

2  -NEW ORLEANS over Las Vegas - …aaaaaaaand this one.

1 – PITTSBURGH over Kansas City – The Steelers have been playing strong, but the fact that it’s the Chiefs keeps this game on the one-point line

To say this has been a year of uncertainty is an understatement.

So many injuries, coaching changes, player issues shaped this season into pure unpredictability. So we’re are gonna end the year with a toss up of our own. Winners will be picked like normal, but the points list will be based on when the games are played – should add an additional degree of interest to the season finale in Detroit Sunday Night!

Before we get into the games, I just wanted to say thank you again for following along this year! I hope I helped you in your pools this year…and I’ll see you in September!

Week 18 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – DETROIT over Minnesota – Ford Field will be rocking louder than it was in the playoffs last year

15 – Los Angeles Chargers over LAS VEGAS – Change is coming for the Raiders … hopefully

14 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Seattle – The Rams should easily lock up the 3 seed by just keeping on doing what they’ve been doing

13 – DENVER over Kansas City – The Broncos will be taking full advantage of a depleted Chiefs roster

12 – ARIZONA over San Francisco – This could be the battle for the division next season as long as CMC stays FAR away from the Madden cover!

11 – NEW YORK JETS over Miami - The Dolphins are playing for their playoff lives, but this just seems like a game the Jets squeak out.

10 -  GREEN BAY over Chicago – Its over, Bears fans … … … it’s over!

9 – TAMPA BAY over New Orleans – Mike Evans is going to get PAID while leading the Bucs to the division title.

8 – PHILADELPHIA over New York Giants – The Eagles have nothing to play for … but the Giants just can’t play.

7 – ATLANTA over Carolina – They’ll miss out this year but my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE FALCONS WILL FINISH IN THE TOP 2 OF THE NFC NEXT YEAR

6 – Washington over DALLAS – It will be interesting to see what happens in Jerry World this off-season…if anything.

5 – INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville – This game will happen … so there

4 – NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo – Like the Broncos, the Pats will benefit from playing a powerhouse with nothing to play for

3 – TENNESSEE over Houston – Another example of a bad team being thrown a week 18 bone

2 – BALTIMORE over Cleveland  - The Ravens win the division…but I don’t see them doing much in the playoffs…maybe not even winning a game

1 – Cincinnati over PITTSBURGH – The Steelers haven’t been able to win when they’ve had something on the line – why would they win when the division will be out of reach?

What an incredible time to be alive!  The sports betting business is booming as more and more states pass legislation to legalize and collect, on the once-taboo activity. Whether or not you’re new to sports betting or you’ve had means of betting for some time now, the fact remains that every bettor needs to have a strategy to have any shot at being successful. In that last couple of years, I would say that I transitioned from a true average Joe bettor to a more informed and strategic amateur bettor. The first step in the progression for me was identifying a strategy and sticking to it.

I don’t make a living betting on sports. As much as I would love to eventually learn to handicap and create my own power ratings, it’s not something that is in the cards for me right now. I would venture to guess that a majority of sports bettors feel this way. So what’s the next best thing?  Start your sports betting fundamentals with a contrarian strategy.

A contrarian is simply someone who “opposes or rejects popular opinion”. In sports betting this is also referred to as fading the public. I’ve been the public. The guy betting on my basic instinct and bias. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees on Monday Night Football, how can I not take the over!  Of course, I would look at the line, but my bias placed the bet before I had even grabbed my phone. Sportsbooks and oddsmakers are very aware of public bias and they build this into their lines. Contrarian bettors take advantage of this to get more value in our picks.

Identifying public bias and understanding how the books play into this is the most important tenet of being a contrarian bettor. Favorites are a staple of the public bettors. The books build this bias into their numbers. So, let’s say a book runs their power rankings and it shows that Seattle should be a 4-point favorite, they will shade the line towards Seattle and make them, for sake of argument, 4.5 or 5 point favorites knowing the public is more often than not taking them anyway. Immediately out of the gate a contrarian bettor is getting a half-point to full point value simply because of public betting bias. The same is true for home teams. So, using the same example from above, Seattle is a 5-point favorite with the public bias computed in, if they are at home you would see this line increase even more making Seattle -8 or perhaps even higher. That is not to say that there are not advantages to playing at home, but rather that the bookmakers already take this into account when setting the number and essentially protect against the home field advantage bias. A team like Seattle could see a shade towards their home field advantage because it’s widely known that Seattle is a tough stadium to play in with the 12^th man. Notice that I didn’t even mention who Seattle was playing. Obviously, the opponent factors into the lines, but the point I am trying to make is purely to show how public betting bias plays into the creation of lines. A contrarian bettor in this fictional scenario is already gaining, at minimum, a half-point of extra value before we even break down other factors.

Overs are another popular pick for public bettors. Who doesn’t want to see points?  I will be the first to admit it is more fun to watch a shootout and more scoring, however, this is another bias that is built into the number. Much like the spread on the favorite is shaded to account for public bias, so is the over. So, let’s stick to the football examples. A matchup formula may indicate that a game total will be around 47 points. The house will shade this line to build in public betting bias and would open the line at 47.7, 48, or 48.5. Again, contrarians gain inherent value looking at unders to play because of this built-in adjustment.

Favorites, home teams, and overs are just 3 examples of how being a contrarian immediately builds value in your bets. Ranked vs unranked bias shades the lines toward the ranked team. A team with a better win-loss record may see shaded lines. Even recent games play into the psychological effects of betting. A team coming off a huge win is more likely to receive heavy betting from public bettors because that big win is fresh in their minds. At the end of the day, it is extremely important to recognize these biases and even more important to understand that the bookmakers have already taken them into account.

Being a contrarian is simply a foundation. It’s a starting point for which to build fundamentals in the way you bet and the games you bet on. It is not the end all be all, however, it does allow you to take advantage of the betting market and in many cases even capitalize on the extra value in your bets because you are fading the public bias.