Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Oh this is gonna be an interesting week for sure.

Looking down the list of games and there aren’t too many, no-brainers! The Bengals are sitting on the second highest line this week … … … need I say more?? So this could be a make or break week for us.

No point in delaying the inevitable any longer, let’s get going!

Week 9 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

15 – BALTIMORE over Denver – The Broncos will be crashing back down to reality on this one … … … hard!

14 – CINCINNATI over Las Vegas – It’s fun being a Raiders fan… it really is…

13 – MINNESOTA over Indianapolis – This probably would’ve been on the top line if the Colts didn’t make a quarterback change.

12 – BUFFALO over Miami – The inevitable realization of the Dolphin’s offense that Tua is back does make me a bit hesitant on this one.

11 – PHILADELPHIA over Jacksonville – It’s weird to have a game this high when I think they’ll win just because it’s a home game.

10 – SEATTLE over Los Angeles Rams – I feel like last week’s drubbing by Buffalo is the wake up Seattle needs in the apparently winable NFC West .

9 – Washington over NEW YORK GIANTS – Safe to say the Commanders are riding high after last week.

8 – KANSAS CITY over Tampa Bay – I would have loved to see this game if the Bucs had a full offense.

7 – Chicago over ARIZONA – A bounce back here after last week’s ending would show us how Caleb Williams can handle the NFL life.

6 – ATLANTA over Dallas – I see big things for Kirk Cousins in this one. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that KIRK COUSINS WILL THROW FOR AT LEAST 450 YARDS AND THREE TDs THIS WEEK.

5 – Los Angeles Chargers over CLEVELAND – I feel like the Browns got their one unexpected win of the season last week.

4 – Houston over NEW YORK JETS – To put it terms New York fans will understand – Houston is like Aaron Judge in the regular season, the Jets are Aaron Judge in the post season.

3 – GREEN BAY over Detroit – This is contingent on Jordan Love playing. Switch to the Lions if he doesn’t…or if you think he’ll be knocked out in the middle of the game again.

2 – New Orleans over CAROLINA – I want to, but its just hard to pick the Panthers in any situation.

1 – New England over TENNESSEE – Titans fans will watch Drake Maye and think about what should have been with Will Levis.

We’re already on double digit weeks? How can this be!

And after last week, we are ready to get into the double digit portion of the season. We said that we needed a big week last week and I would say we did just that!

Let’s keep it rolling!

Week 10 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

14 – KANSAS CITY over Denver – The Chiefs are going to lose a game this season … … … right?

13 – BALTIMORE over Cincinnati – Can’t play the Raiders every week, Bengals!

12 – WASHIGNTON over Pittsburgh – The Commander should have no business being this high against the Steelers, but here we are.

11 – CHICAGO over New England – Lose this one and there will be a LOT of angry Bears fans

10 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Tennessee – The Chargers have been one of the quietest solid looking teams this year – along with … … …

9 – CARDINALS over New York Jets - … … … the Cardinals!

8 – Buffalo over INDIANAPOLIS – I’m feeling it this year. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE BILLS WILL WIN THE SUPER BOWL.

7 – Minnesota over JACKSONVILLE – Safe the say the Vikings need this one if they want to keep up with the Lions.

6 – San Francisco over TAMPA BAY – If Baker had a wide receiver to throw to this would be a lot closer.

5 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Miami – Take the over on this one for sure!

4 – Atlanta over NEW ORLEANS – Derek Carr needs to get the Saints offense back to where they were in the beginning of the season for me to have faith in them.

3 – Philadelphia over DALLAS – The Cowboys would have at least had a chance if Dak was playing.

2 – Detroit over HOUSTON – This will be a Super Bowl matchup in the next few years.

1 – CAROLINA over New York Giants – Sending these two teams to play in Germany is our wars start.

Don’t look now but we are getting close to the end of the season.

If you are somewhere in the middle of your season long pool, now is the time to start making your move! Though, if you have been following the picks here – obviously you are towards the top :)

So let’s keep it rolling!

Week 11 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

14 – DETROIT over Jacksonville – I feel like the Lions are what the Jaguars were supposed to be

13 – MIAMI over Las Vegas – (looks at 2025 NFL Mock Drafts to see the next Raiders quarterback)

12 – SAN FRANCISCO over Seattle – On behalf of one-win fantasy owners everywhere, welcome back CMC!

11 – Houston over DALLAS – At least it’s a night game so the open window in Jerry World won’t be an issue this week.

10 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Cincinnati – The Bengals can put up numbers, just not enough points.

9 – Green Bay over CHICAGO – Changes on the Lakefront happened too late. Between that and a difficult remaining schedule, my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE BEARS WILL HAVE A TOP 5 PICK IN NEXT YEARS DRAFT.

8 – NEW ORLEANS over Cleveland – This is a needed get-right game for the Saints offense – MVS isn’t a lasting answer.

7 – Minnesota over TENNESSEE – It’s gonna be hard to pick the Titans the rest of the season.

6 – BUFFALO over Kansas City – There’s a small chance this could very well be an entertaining game.

5 – Baltimore over PITTSBURGH – I’m probably making a mistake not having faith in the Steelers at this point, yet here we are.

4 – PHILADELPHIA over Washington – Potential for another competitive game on Amazon? What world are we in?

3 – DENVER over Atlanta – I can’t remember there being a game with two teams who I can get an accurate read on less.

2 – NEW ENGLAND over Los Angeles Rams – Pure hunch on this one.

1 – Indianapolis over NEW YORK JETS – The Colts believe in Anthony Richardson again, so I’ll believe in him as well.

What an incredible time to be alive!  The sports betting business is booming as more and more states pass legislation to legalize and collect, on the once-taboo activity. Whether or not you’re new to sports betting or you’ve had means of betting for some time now, the fact remains that every bettor needs to have a strategy to have any shot at being successful. In that last couple of years, I would say that I transitioned from a true average Joe bettor to a more informed and strategic amateur bettor. The first step in the progression for me was identifying a strategy and sticking to it.

I don’t make a living betting on sports. As much as I would love to eventually learn to handicap and create my own power ratings, it’s not something that is in the cards for me right now. I would venture to guess that a majority of sports bettors feel this way. So what’s the next best thing?  Start your sports betting fundamentals with a contrarian strategy.

A contrarian is simply someone who “opposes or rejects popular opinion”. In sports betting this is also referred to as fading the public. I’ve been the public. The guy betting on my basic instinct and bias. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees on Monday Night Football, how can I not take the over!  Of course, I would look at the line, but my bias placed the bet before I had even grabbed my phone. Sportsbooks and oddsmakers are very aware of public bias and they build this into their lines. Contrarian bettors take advantage of this to get more value in our picks.

Identifying public bias and understanding how the books play into this is the most important tenet of being a contrarian bettor. Favorites are a staple of the public bettors. The books build this bias into their numbers. So, let’s say a book runs their power rankings and it shows that Seattle should be a 4-point favorite, they will shade the line towards Seattle and make them, for sake of argument, 4.5 or 5 point favorites knowing the public is more often than not taking them anyway. Immediately out of the gate a contrarian bettor is getting a half-point to full point value simply because of public betting bias. The same is true for home teams. So, using the same example from above, Seattle is a 5-point favorite with the public bias computed in, if they are at home you would see this line increase even more making Seattle -8 or perhaps even higher. That is not to say that there are not advantages to playing at home, but rather that the bookmakers already take this into account when setting the number and essentially protect against the home field advantage bias. A team like Seattle could see a shade towards their home field advantage because it’s widely known that Seattle is a tough stadium to play in with the 12^th man. Notice that I didn’t even mention who Seattle was playing. Obviously, the opponent factors into the lines, but the point I am trying to make is purely to show how public betting bias plays into the creation of lines. A contrarian bettor in this fictional scenario is already gaining, at minimum, a half-point of extra value before we even break down other factors.

Overs are another popular pick for public bettors. Who doesn’t want to see points?  I will be the first to admit it is more fun to watch a shootout and more scoring, however, this is another bias that is built into the number. Much like the spread on the favorite is shaded to account for public bias, so is the over. So, let’s stick to the football examples. A matchup formula may indicate that a game total will be around 47 points. The house will shade this line to build in public betting bias and would open the line at 47.7, 48, or 48.5. Again, contrarians gain inherent value looking at unders to play because of this built-in adjustment.

Favorites, home teams, and overs are just 3 examples of how being a contrarian immediately builds value in your bets. Ranked vs unranked bias shades the lines toward the ranked team. A team with a better win-loss record may see shaded lines. Even recent games play into the psychological effects of betting. A team coming off a huge win is more likely to receive heavy betting from public bettors because that big win is fresh in their minds. At the end of the day, it is extremely important to recognize these biases and even more important to understand that the bookmakers have already taken them into account.

Being a contrarian is simply a foundation. It’s a starting point for which to build fundamentals in the way you bet and the games you bet on. It is not the end all be all, however, it does allow you to take advantage of the betting market and in many cases even capitalize on the extra value in your bets because you are fading the public bias.