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Oh this is going to be a fun week!

To clarify, this will be a “fun” week.

This is the kind of week where it looks like there are a decent amount of sure-fire picks…but you know we’ll see at least one upset. It’s football, we always do. All because some jerk once coined the phrase “Any Given Sunday.”

We’re not worried about that here though so let’s get some confidence!

Week 3 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – JACKSONVILLE over Houston – (embracing my inner-Billy Madison) I put the Jags on the 16 because I’ve never seen the Jags on the 16 and wanted to see the Jags on the 16,

15 – KANSAS CITY over Chicago – What in the holy hell is going on at Halas Hall???

14 – MIAMI over Denver – I trusted the Broncos last week…not making that mistake again anytime soon

13 – SAN FRANCISCO over New York Giants – No Saquon = no win…that simple

12 – SEATLLE over Carolina – Something clicked for the Seahawks last week and the Panthers don’t have what it takes to…um…unclick it…yeah that works

11 – Dallas over ARIZONA – The Cardinals have looked surprisingly competent running the NFC East Gauntlet so far…that comes to an abrupt stop this week

10 – BALTIMORE over Indianapolis – Anthony Richardson is looking impressive early in his career…just can’t find a way to stay in the game long enough for a win

9 – LAS VEGAS over Pittsburgh – The Steelers won’t be able to score multiple defensive TDs every week

8 – DETROIT over Atlanta – Who knew this time last year that this would be an intriguing, and probably fun, game to watch??

7 – CLEVELAND over Tennessee – As intriguing as that last game should be, that’s how boring this one should be

6 – MINNESOTA over Los Angeles Chargers – An 0-2 Kirk Cousins will be mad…you won’t like him when he’s mad! My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that KIRK COUSINS WILL THROW FOR OVER 400 YARDS.

5 – GREEN BAY over New Orleans – The atmosphere of a Packers home opener will be too much for the Saints to handle

4 – CINCINNATI over Los Angeles Rams – All faith in the Bengals this year will be lost if they lose this one

3 – Buffalo over WASHINGTON – I don’t have nearly as much confidence on this one as I probably should

2 – NEW YORK JETS over New England – This is your weekly “Team X will win because they’re the home team”

1 – TAMPA BAY over Philadelphia – Hunch…pure hunch…hunches like this belong on the one point line

And what a difference a week makes!

Last week, we had a decent amount of games that were sure fire picks. This week, we have a LOT more games that are pick’em’s to say the least!

Well, last week a few too many “sure fire’s” were apparently not that sure a thing…maybe more toss-up’s will mean more correct picks this week!

Week 4 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – SAN FRANCISCO over Arizona – When you are a team that looks unbeatable, a home game against the Cardinals is not necessarily something to be worried about.

15 – Kansas City over NEW YORK JETS – Aaron Rodgers being replaced on this Sunday Night Football broadcast by Taylor Swift probably won’t help the Jets too much.

14 – DALLAS over New England – Losing to Arizona last week only upset the Cowboys defense. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE COWBOYS DEFENSE WILL SHUTOUT THE PATRIOTS WITH AT LEAST FIVE SACKS, TWO ITERCEPTIONS, A FUMBLE RECOVERY.

13 – PHILADELPHIA over Washington – I said the Eagles were going to be better than they were last year … I was right.

12 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Las Vegas – I can verify that Raiders fans are already looking at 2024 Mock Drafts.

11 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Seattle – The Giants still win if Saquon doesn’t play here…but drop them down below the five point line

10 – Baltimore over CLEVELAND – Take the over on this one.

9 – Minnesota over CAROLINA – I just can’t see the Vikings starting the season 0-4…can you?

8 – GREEN BAY over Detroit – It will be interesting to see how Jordan Love responds to the national spotlight.

7 – INDIANAPOLIS over Los Angeles Rams – Id’ say drop the Colts down a few if Richardson doesn’t play again…but it didn’t seem to matter last week.

6 – BUFFALO over Miami – This is just going to be fun to watch!

5 – NEW ORLEANS over Tampa Bay – I’m not saying that Jameis Winston went to the locker room kicking Derek Carr so he could play against Tampa this week … buuuut I’m not NOT saying it either.

4 – HOUSTON over Pittsburgh – I feel legally and morally obligated to pick Houston to win after picking them to lose in the 16 point slot last week.

3 – Atlanta over JACKSONVILLE – And on that note, I feel the same about picking the Jags to lose after picking them to win in the 16 point slot last week.

2 – Cincinnati over TENNESSEE – This was a playoff matchup not too long ago…just gonna leave that there…

1 – CHICAGO over Denver – I don’t care who you pick, just keep it on this line – neither team deserves to be higher than the one point line

As we head into week 5, we head into our second week of the International Series. This week we are sending the Bills over to London while keeping the Jaguars over there for a second straight week because Jacksonville probably wouldn’t notice anyway.

This, like last week, means that our Sunday is getting an early start. So if you are like me and wait until Sunday morning to do your final fantasy/confidence tweaking, remember to set your alarm!

Week 5 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

14 – MIAMI over New York Giants – The Dolphins put up 70 in their last home game…this time I feel like they could get 70 sacks against the Giants O-Line.

13 – WASHINGTON over Chicago – There is no way change can’t be coming soon. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that, if the Bears lose, MATT EBERFLUS WILL BE FIRED BEFORE WEEK 6.

12 – DETROIT over Carolina – The top three lines on a confidence pool sheet are the Dolphins, Commanders and Lions…whoduh thunk!

11 – BUFFALO over Jacksonville – The Bills lost to the Jets … that still just dumbfounds me.

10 – Baltimore over PITTSBURGH – The Steelers are playing almost the same kind of offense they just gave up 30 points to…only this offense is better.

9 – INDIANAPOLIS over Tennessee – The Colts are just an intriguing team this year.

8 – DENVER over New York Jets – I’d say the non-Rodgers led Jets had there moment in the sun by almost winning last week…that won’t carry over.

7 – LAS VEGAS over Green Bay – OK, maybe still a little bit of a personal reason for putting the Raiders this high on the list.

6 – Cincinnati over ARIZONA – If they can’t beat the Cardinals, stick a fork in the Bengals.

5 – SAN FRANCISCO over Dallas – Grab your Pogs and put on some Ace of Base – this one will take you right back to the 90s!

4 – NEW ENGLAND over New Orleans – Two teams with two-letter abbreviations that both start with N … … … that’s the excitement I found for this one.

3 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Philadelphia – The will be the game the Rams show the league that they are indeed back.

2 – Houston over ATLANTA – This is going to be an unexpectedly fun game to watch.

1 – MINNESOTA over Kansas City – If you think someone will get their first win against the Chiefs, keep it on the one-point line.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

4 Career Pick-Sixes

Mac Jones has played 19 home games and has thrown 4 pick-sixes. That’s the same number that Tom Brady threw in his entire career in Foxborough. (Sidebar: Tom Brady has played in more Super Bowls, 10, than games in the Wild Card round, 7). This is normally where I’d pile on the Patriots and try to roast them for losing terribly two games in a row this year. To be honest though, I really want to see Bill Belichick get that win #300. He’s a hero to curmudgeons everywhere. This game was really the pinnacle, or I suppose the nadir, of this Patriots team. Their opponent had 12 penalties for 86 yards and only converted 1/3^rd of their third downs, yet still dominated the time of possession 2:1. The Patriots only converted 1 out of 14 third downs and had 156 total yards of offense. Well, there I go piling on when I said I wouldn’t. Hopefully, the Pats can win #300 for Bill this coming week because I don’t see it happening for the rest of the month while they play the Bills and Dolphins.

12.1 Yards Per Carry

De’Von Achane, yes, it took me one whole entry until I got to this season’s statistical freak, went into week 5 averaging 11.5 yards/attempt, and he only improved on that. He has a whopping 460 rushing yards, second only to Christian McCaffrey at 510. CMC has taken 99 carries to get there, compared to Achane’s 38. CMC’s average of 5.2 Y/A is absolutely pitful in comparison. OK, that might be a little far, but Achane has 17 carries of 20+ yards. He gains 20+ yards 45% of the time he gets handed the ball! The next closest player in terms of yards per carry is Breece Hall, and he’d be noticed and lauded in any year that isn’t 2023. Hall has 54 carries for a measly 387 yards – just 7.2 Y/A – why even bother? Achane, with essentially only 3 fantasy games under his belt (he has no points week 1, 1.5 points week 2) is still the RB3 on the season.

14 Consecutive Games with a Touchdown

Moving on to the guy who keeps seeing Achane in his rearview mirror. It’s not because Christian McCaffery is slowing down. I suppose that makes Achane more impressive because McCaffrey is now on quite a streak of 14 games in a row with a touchdown. He has 18 total touchdowns during that stretch. He’s averaging almost 25 fantasy points per game this year. McCaffrey has shown time and again that when healthy, he is the best player in fantasy football. Now that he’s on one of the best offenses in the league, it has to feel like your team starts every game with a lead.

3 of the Top 14 Kickers

I love to talk about removing kickers from fantasy football, and I just can’t help myself once again. This week – using the drinkfive fantasy football league as the standard – only 3 of the top 14 are rostered. None of the top 6 kickers are rostered. Kickers in the NFL are important in some situations. Kickers in fantasy football are random! With teams going for 2 more than ever, there’s not even the one-pointers to count on. The two most rostered players in Fleaflicker leagues, Tyler Bass (96%) and Justin Tucker (94%) combined for just 5.5 points. Together they would just be the K23 on the week! If the two best position players turned in games like that, it would be front story news on every fantasy website. But no, it’s just another Sunday for kickers. OK, I promise to lay off the kickers for a while.

186 Consecutive Pass Attempts

C.J. Stroud is the best-looking rookie QB to start the season. He currently has a streak of 186 consecutive pass attempts – all of the passes he’s thrown this season – without an interception. Stroud is the QB13 on the season so far. He’s thrown over 300 yards twice already and has 3 games with multiple touchdown passes. He’s pulled the Texans out of the basement with a respectable 2-3 start, including a TD pass to take the lead late in this week’s game. Unfortunately, he was up against the man who does not lose at home. Desmond Ridder has the Falcons at 3-2. All three victories occurred at home – two of those being exciting 4^th quarter comebacks. Ridder has not lost a game at home in his professional or college career. He’s 5-0 in the NFL as a starter at home, and of course, to balance it out, he’s 0-4 on the road.