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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re just 3 weeks into the season, and already the rookie crop has been making a massive impact on fantasy leagues. Hopefully you weren’t too busy watching Taylor Swift cheer at the Chiefs game to notice it. De’Von Achane posted arguably the greatest rookie single-game performance we’ve ever seen as the Dolphins rolled the Broncos by 50 points, but he was hardly alone in having a standout performance. Sam LaPorta finished the week as the TE1, Tank Dell finished as the WR6, and CJ Stroud and Marvin Mims put up big games as well.

Injuries have been a rampant problem in the early going, which has helped get some of these rookies extended opportunities, and those injuries don’t show many signs of slowing down after Mike Williams suffered a season-ending knee injury last Sunday. Standout rookies Achane, Dell, Puka Nacua, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jayden Reed have all benefitted from injuries ahead of them on the depth chart thus far, and following along with the Rookie Report all year will help you know which rookies can step up when an injury happens.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 4…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 4: @Jax.): Robinson is coming off his worst game of his young career and gets a really tough matchup, but you can’t sit your first-round pick in week 4, especially when he finished as a top-10 RB in two of the first 3 weeks. Robinson is more of a contrarian play in DFS lineups this week as he faces a Jacksonville team that ranks 4^th in Aaron Schatz’s run defense DVOA and has allowed the 10^th-fewest running back points per game. He still needs to be in your lineups in season-long leagues.

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 4: @GB): LaPorta through three weeks is making the conventional wisdom that rookie tight ends don’t produce in fantasy look silly. The rookie ranks as the current TE2 in total points behind only TJ Hockenson, and he’s logged PPR finishes of TE8, TE8, and TE1. Has he reached the point where you should be starting him over guys like Mark Andrews, Darren Waller or Evan Engram? I wouldn’t go that far, but that doesn’t mean he can’t outscore them. I just wouldn’t count on LaPorta pulling in another 45-yard TD. The Packers are a middling TE defense, allowing the 16^th-most points per game, but the Lions had one of the narrowest target trees last week that I’ve seen. LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Kalif Raymond combined for 93% of the Lions total targets in week 3. If that continues going forward, LaPorta should be a safe top-10 PPR TE (at least until Jameson Williams returns).

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Anthony Richardson, IND (Wk. 4: vs. LAR): Richardson is on track to be back under center this week after returning to a full practice on Wednesday, and he should be treated as a low end QB1 despite a matchup that looks tough at first glance. The Rams have allowed the 5^th-fewest QB points per game so far and held both Geno Smith and Joe Burrow below 10 fantasy points, but the Rams also rank just 20^th in pass defense DVOA. None of the QBs who have faced the Rams offered much in the way of rushing upside, and we know Richardson is a virtual lock to run the ball 8-10 times, giving him a healthy floor. The DVOA ranking tells me that the passing matchup isn’t quite as tough as the points allowed number would indicate. Don’t be afraid to plug Richardson in if he’s been your QB1.

RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Wk. 4: @Buf.): I know, I know…there’s probably no world where you’re considering benching Achane this week if you’ve got him after watching him pile up 4 TDs and over FIFTY(!) PPR points against the Broncos last Sunday, but the sledding will be notably tougher this week. Denver’s barely-there run defense allowed nearly 30 PPR points to Brian Robinson Jr. in week 2 before being incinerated by Achane and Raheem Mostert last weekend. Buffalo, on the other hand, has allowed the 9^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 6^th in run defense DVOA. On the plus side, Achane’s big game last weekend wasn’t fueled by garbage time. He worked in a committee with Mostert early in the game and was actively involved while the game was still competitive and should remain in at least a timeshare with the veteran Mostert this week. Despite the tough matchup, the Dolphins’ run game has been playing at an incredible level, and you’ll be kicking yourself if he has another blow up game from your bench. You should find a way to fit him in your starting lineup this week if you can.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 4: @GB): Gibbs had a strong performance on Sunday against the Falcons, but his fantasy production didn’t really reflect that. The Lions leaned on Gibbs on the ground with David Montgomery sidelined, and he racked up 80 yards on 17 carries and hauled in a 2-yard catch. He helped the Lions control the game but didn’t help you win your fantasy matchup. This week David Montgomery seems to be on the right side of questionable, but I’m on board with going back to the well here with Gibbs. The Packers have been shredded for about 150 running back scrimmage yards per game, 5^th-most in the NFL. They also rank just 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. No team is allowing more RB catches per game, and only the Broncos and Bears are allowing more RB receiving yards per game. Monty’s return should free up Gibbs to be more involved in the passing game, and I like his chances to produce a strong PPR day in a good matchup. I like Gibbs to finish as a high-end RB2 or better on Thursday night.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Den.): One of the more interesting games of week 3 will happen when a stoppable force meets a movable object in Chicago on Sunday. The Bears and Broncos have been huge dumpster fires in the league’s first few weeks, but one of them is bound to pick up their first win in week 4. Chicago may finally play a game with neutral or positive game script. The Bears want to be a run-first team, but scoreboard deficits have limited their running backs to just 15 rush attempts per game. A competitive contest this week would be a good thing for both Roschon and Khalil Herbert. Another good thing for that pair is a matchup with a Denver defense that gave up 182 scrimmage yards to the Commanders’ running backs in week 2, and a whopping 441 to Miami’s backs in week 3. Johnson appears to have closed the playing time gap on Khalil Herbert, and the duo essentially took turns playing full drives in Kansas City. Roschon has been the more effective runner of the two, but both backs have high-end RB3 appeal in this very inviting matchup.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 4: @Ind.): Nacua had the worst game of his season on Monday night against the Bengals. He finished that game with 5 catches for 72 yards on 7 targets, good for a PPR WR36 finish for the week. If that’s the floor, you have to feel pretty good about firing him up against an Indy defense that has allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game. Cooper Kupp could be back as soon as week 5, so this could be the last week of Nacua as an auto-start.  

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 4: vs. Pit.): Dell has logged back-to-back 20-point PPR games and may be emerging as the best wide receiver on the Texans. The 5’10”, 165-pound Dell’s usage has been surprising, as he’s played just 28 snaps from the slot. Dell is doing his damage lined up mostly as a perimeter WR. The Texans should continue to lean on CJ Stroud and their passing game this week, and the Steelers have allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game so far. I’m not saying another 20-point day is a sure thing, but I trust Dell to be a serviceable WR3 this week.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 4: @Car.): Addison logged a season-high 80% route participation rate and earned a season-high 8 targets in week 3, but he posted his lowest fantasy output of the season after failing to find the end zone. Addison still hasn’t overtaken KJ Osborn for the WR2 role, but he’s slowly closing the gap and this offense is going to continue to be pass-heavy enough that he’ll keep seeing 6-8 targets in his current role. Carolina is a tough matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but some of that is due to the Panthers frequently playing from behind and their opponents running the ball a ton. Minnesota isn’t likely to run the ball a ton, and the Panthers rank 20^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. Both of Addison’s TDs this year have gone for more than 35 yards. I wouldn’t fault you for sitting Addison this week if you have a WR3 you feel really good about ahead of him, but I’d roll with the Vikings rookie if you don’t.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Musgrave has posted a route participation rate of 80% or better in each of Green Bay’s first three games, and Detroit’s defense has given up 9+ tight end receptions or a tight end score in all 3 of their games. Packer tight ends not named Musgrave have seen two total targets this season. I wouldn’t treat the 8 targets Musgrave earned last week as the new normal. Green Bay threw more than they would like to after falling behind 17-0 last Sunday. If their passing volume gets back to normal this week, something like 5-6 targets feels likely here, and against Detroit’s defense that has struggled to contain the TE position, that’s probably enough to push for a back-end TE1 finish. Musgrave has higher than normal chances of scoring a TD as well in this plus matchup. I’d rather roll out Musgrave this week than guys like Hunter Henry, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Higbee, or Pat Freiermuth.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 4: vs. Pit.): Stroud has been fantastic over the last two weeks, piling up 664 passing yards and 4 TDs with just 1 turnover, but he gets a stiffer defensive test this week. Each of Stroud’s last two opponents have been bad against QBs, coughing up 18+ points to the opposing signal caller in every game they’ve played. The Steelers have allowed 18+ just once, to Jimmy Garoppolo on Sunday night when they couldn’t contain Davante Adams. The Steelers rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 13^th-fewest QB points per game. There should still be a good amount of passing volume for Stroud, so he’s a great QB2 option in superflex leagues, but I have a hard time ranking him as a top-12 QB option this week.

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Spears’ early season usage has been promising for PPR leagues, but the production just isn’t matching that usage. Spears is playing nearly all of the long down & distance snaps, and he’s consistently drawing targets in the passing game, but this offense looks like a shell of what it was in 2022, especially when it comes to running backs in the passing game. Last season there were 89 different NFL running backs who logged 10 or more targets for the season. Only 8 of them averaged 8 or more yards per target. The Titans’ backfield collectively averaged 8.0 yards per target on 85 total targets. Through 3 games, Tyjae Spears has 10 receiving yards on 10 targets, or just 1 yard per target. That must change for Spears to start returning fantasy value, and it’s unlikely to change this week. The Bengals have allowed just 3 catches and 20 receiving yards per game to opposing backs. I’m holding Spears in deeper PPR leagues still, but this offense needs to turn it around or have a very favorable matchup before I’d consider plugging him into lineups.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 4: vs. TB): Miller failed to make the most of his NFL debut, tallying just 34 yards on 10 touches. He faces a middling Bucs’ run defense this week (15^th-fewest RB points allowed and 23^rd in run defense DVOA), but the Saints get Alvin Kamara back this week and he should step immediately into the lead back role. Kendre will split the backup work with Tony Jones, making him a bad option in fantasy lineups.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 4: @Cle.): So far this season the Todd Monken offensive revolution in Baltimore hasn’t quite gone as planned. The Ravens are attempting just 29 passes per game and rank just 14^th in points scored. Zay Flowers has continued to earn a big share of the workload, seeing 20% or more of the team air yards in all 3 games and 10 targets in two of them, but the matchup this week with the Browns is a tough one. Cleveland ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the fewest WR points per game. 54% of Flowers’ yards this season have come after the catch, and Cleveland has allowed the 6^th-fewest yards after catch in the league. There’s a sliver of hope that the Browns focus more on Mark Andrews as they did last year, when they limited him to just 3 catches for 31 yards in 2 meetings, freeing up Flowers to do more damage, but that feels like hopium. Flowers is the Ravens’ WR1, so he’s certainly a viable WR3 option in your lineups this week, but if you’re having a tough time choosing between him and another player this week, I’d lean away from Flowers.

WRs Jayden Reed & Dontayvion Wicks, GB (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): The Packers will get Christian Watson back for week 4’s tilt with the Lions, and that knocks both Reed and Wicks down a spot in the WR pecking order this week. Watson is expected to be on a snap count, but the Packers are already a lower passing volume team (they rank 21^st in pass rate over expectation so far), and they’ve been spreading their receiver snaps around more than you’d like to see. In week 3, only Romeo Doubs was in a route on more than 72% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks, and 5 different receivers earned multiple targets. Watson’s return further muddies things. If I had to guess, I’d say Wicks is the WR hurt most by Watson’s presence. Wicks has been targeted regularly on play action passes (5 of his 12 targets have come on PA passes). Last season, Watson led the team with 31% of his targets coming from play action. Watson likely pushes Wicks to the bench, and Reed probably loses some routes to Wicks. The Lions have allowed the 10^th-fewest WR points per game, and while both Reed and Wicks have flashed with their opportunities thus far, I can’t recommend starting them here with reduced playing time.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 4: vs. LAR): Downs made me look smart last week by doing exactly what I predicted and compiling his way to a top-30 PPR finish on 12 targets with Gardner Minshew at QB. It looks like Anthony Richardson is good to go for this game, and I don’t expect quite as much passing volume for the Colts in this one. The Colts are favored by a point and a half, the Rams rank 29^th in run defense DVOA, and Zack Moss is coming off a breakout performance in week 3. I’d expect the Colts to try and lean on Moss and that run game as long as they can Sunday. They may still throw enough for Downs to earn a healthy number of targets, but he turned 12 targets into a line of just 8 catches for 57 yards last weekend. His low aDOT opportunities mean he needs to pile up a lot of catches or yards after the catch to maximize his output, and the Rams have allowed the 2^nd-fewest yards after the catch so far this season. I’d treat Downs as a low-ceiling PPR WR4 option this week.

WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 4: vs. LV): The Chargers got the disappointing news after their game last Sunday that starting wide receiver Mike Williams is done for the year with a torn ACL. The injury will mean good things for Johnston’s playing time, but I’d still wait to plug him into any lineups. Johnston has worked behind Josh Palmer on the depth chart, and that should continue in the short term. As the season wears on, I’d expect Johnston to carve out a bigger role. If you’re looking for reasons to plug in Quentin this week, he does have a higher target-per-route-run rate than Palmer, he’ll be on the field in most 3-WR sets, and the Raiders rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA (28^th on deep passes). Just consider yourself forewarned that the floor is lower than you’d like. He’s a boom-or-bust WR4 this week.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 4: @NYJ): In case you haven’t been paying attention, Rashee Rice has now logged 3 consecutive games with a target-per-route-run rate above 30%, and in week 3 he logged a season-high 51% route participation rate. He finished the game with 5 catches for 59 yards on 7 targets, but it could’ve been a much bigger game as he was tackled at the 1-yard line twice. My biggest concern for Rice is that only 2 of his targets happened before the team was up by more than 20 points. I think the route participation rate may be an outlier caused by garbage time. The matchup this week is dicier against a New York defense that has allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. Rice is worth a stash in most deeper leagues and could emerge as the best wide receiver in this offense, but I wouldn’t trust him to have a big game this week.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 4: @SF): Wilson hasn’t earned big target volume in the first 3 weeks, but he’s functioned as Arizona’s WR2 and his targets have come downfield. His 16.8-yard average target depth ranks 9^th in the NFL among qualified pass catchers, and 6 of his 7 catches have resulted in at least 15-yard gains. That sort of usage isn’t going to lead to much production against the 49ers, who do not allow downfield completions. Opposing teams have attempted 8 passes of 20+ air yards against the 49ers this season. The only two of those attempts that were caught were hauled in by 49er defenders. This is a bad matchup for a WR who specializes in deep balls.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 4: vs. Mia.): Kincaid gets a favorable matchup against a Miami defense allowing the 7^th-most TE points per game, but he’s logged back-to-back games with a route participation rate below 70% and hasn’t yet topped 10 fantasy points in a game. His average target depth for the season is below 5 yards, and it’s just going to be hard for him to put up big fantasy days until that changes. He’s still on the field a lot in a high-powered offense and facing a favorable matchup, so there’s still upside here, but I’d treat him like a fringe top-15 TE this week.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 4: @LAC): Jimmy Garoppolo was concussed on Sunday night and is listed as questionable for this week, but it would likely be Brian Hoyer who gets the starting nod if Garoppolo is unable to play. The Chargers have allowed more QB points per game than any other defense so far, but even if O’Connell gets the nod, you’d probably be crazy to start him in his first NFL start. The Raiders would undoubtedly lean on Josh Jacobs in that scenario.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 4: @Chi.): McLaughlin played a season-high 20% of the offensive snaps in week 3 and posted 5 carries for 15 yards, but most of that work came late in an epic 50-point beatdown at the hands of the Dolphins. This week’s game should be more competitive against the only other team in the league that looks like as big of a mess as the Broncos. Any opportunities against the Bears’ awful defense are good opportunities, but I don’t expect McLaughlin to get many of them this week.

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 4: vs. Atl.): Bigsby has found the end zone in two out of three games this season, but he’s handled just 2 touches on 19 snaps in the last 2 games combined. This is Travis Etienne’s backfield, and while Bigsby will remain a threat to vulture more goal line opportunities, the Falcons are yet to allow a running back score this season and have allowed the 5^th-fewest running back points per game.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 4: @NO): Tucker has been largely a disappointment in the first 3 weeks if you’ve stashed him in hopes that he eventually takes more of Rachaad White’s touches. White was back to his inefficient self in week 3, but he played 91% of the offensive snaps in the game and Tucker was even worse with his limited opportunities. Tucker now has 10 carries for 8 yards in the last two weeks. You can still hold him in deeper leagues, but every week that passes with White outplaying him makes it harder for Tucker to be useful without an injury ahead of him.

RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. NE): Vaughn tallied 6 touches in each of the first two games of the year as Dallas had a bunch of garbage time in blowout wins. He then played zero offensive snaps in week 3 in a game the Cowboys never led. Dallas is favored by 7 points against the Pats, so if the game goes as expected there may be a chance for a few garbage time touches for Vaughn, but there’s not a lot of ceiling to chase and the floor is zero points if Dallas doesn’t play from ahead.

WR Ronnie Bell, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Ari.): Bell tallied the first two touches of his NFL career last Thursday and turned one of them into a TD with Brandon Aiyuk sidelined. His other catch was hauled in off a deflection on a pass that wasn’t intended for him. Aiyuk appears likely to return this week, but Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings have picked up questionable designations ahead of this game as well. If any of them sit, Bell could be worth a cheap dart throw in showdown DFS contests, but I wouldn’t roll those dice in any other format. Again, with Aiyuk out last week he was truly targeted only once, and the 49ers won’t need to throw much in this game as two-touchdown favorites. If both Deebo and Jennings miss this game, I’d treat Bell as a desperation WR4/5 option.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 4: @NO): Palmer was on the field for a season-high 86% of the Bucs’ team passing dropbacks in week 3, but he earned a season-low 1 target as a result. Through 3 weeks, 53% of the Bucs’ team targets have gone to either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. Just 6 targets have gone to Palmer. The 3^rd receiver in this offense will continue to be a lightly targeted ancillary player.

WRs Kayshon Boutte & Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Boutte has been a healthy scratch in back-to-back weeks after running 46 routes in week 1, and Douglas has run just 16 routes in the last two weeks. Neither player is worth consideration against a Dallas defense that ranks 3^rd in pass defense DVOA.

TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. NE): Schoonmaker has run just 10 routes total for the season and earned 2 total targets. If you’re looking for 1 target per week (at least for the time being), he’s your man.

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Will Levis, TEN, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Zach Evans, LAR, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, TE Michael Mayer, LV, TE Darnell Washington, PIT

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 4: vs. Min.): You’re probably scoffing at the idea of using a QB who in his first two games averaged 150 passing yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT, but this is a great opportunity for Young to post a solid fantasy day. A week of watching Andy Dalton throw for 361 yards against a bad pass defense hopefully taught Young some things he can use toward a similar outing against a bad Minnesota secondary. The Vikings have coughed up the 3^rd-most QB points per game and rank 23^rd in pass defense DVOA. They’ve given up 8 total QB touchdowns through 3 games as well. Bryce’s results in the first two games mean he should be viewed as just a low-end QB2 this week, but he’s got some extra upside in a favorable matchup. Don’t be surprised if he throws for comfortably over 200 yards with a pair of scores.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 4: @NYG): Charbonnet has quietly been earning more and more playing time in this offense, logging a season-high 44% snap share in week 3. Kenneth Walker is still going to get most of the high-value touches, but we saw Charbonnet produce 46 yards on 9 carries against a bad run defense last weekend, and he’s got another one on the docket this week. The Giants have allowed the 6^th-most RB points per game and rank just 25^th in run defense DVOA. If Charbonnet sees another 10 or so touches this week, he should be a fringe RB3 again like he was last week.

WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 4: @Chi.): You might not have noticed it amidst the SEVENTY points that Miami put on the Broncos, but Marvin Mims put up another stellar game on limited opportunities in week 3. Mims has run just 17 routes in the last 2 weeks, but he’s earned 7 targets and turned them into 5 catches for 186 yards and a TD, with 4 of those catches going for 30+ yards. He also added a 45-yard punt return and a 99-yard kick return TD in those games for good measure. At some point the Broncos are going to realize they have to get this kid on the field more often (beat writer Cecil Lammey hinted that will happen as soon as this week), but even if that doesn’t happen this week, he’s got another matchup where he could put up big splash plays. The Bears have been a disheveled defense so far, and rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. Mims is the definition of a boom-or-bust play, but he’s boomed in back-to-back weeks and has a history of being uber efficient. Per Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points: Mims in 2019 put up the most receiving yards in US high school history. In 2020, he posted the 2^nd-best age-adjusted yards per route run that PFF College has ever tracked. And in 2021, he posted the best ever yards per target that PFF College has ever tracked. If your league gives points for return yards, Mims is a great upside play, and he should be rostered in all formats. If you want to live dangerously in more standard formats, roll the dice on Mims making it 3 straight booms weeks.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 4: vs. Min.): Mingo still hasn’t quite cleared the concussion protocol, but he’s trending towards being able to play this week against a bad Minnesota defense. Adam Thielen and DJ Chark seemingly cemented themselves as the go-to receivers in this offense last week, but that was with Andy Dalton under center. Mingo still has the highest target share from Bryce Young of any pass catcher on the team, and no team in the NFL has allowed more PPR points to perimeter wide receivers this season than the Vikings. Mingo spends most of his time lined up outside. Obviously, Mingo is a risky play in what has been a shaky passing game with Young at QB, but if Mingo gets cleared, I’d view him as a fringe WR4 with upside for a better game than expected. He’d make a nice contrarian play in showdown DFS contests to counter players chasing the narrative of a resurgent Adam Thielen in a revenge game. Thielen costs $8,600 for showdown contests on DraftKings. Mingo costs $3,000. I expect Mingo to be the better value of the pair this week at those prices.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 4: @NYG): Obviously a 1^st round NFL draft pick isn’t someone you would think of as a ‘sleeper’, but JSN hasn’t exactly been someone you can use in fantasy lineups so far this year. He’s averaging just 4 yards per target as the Seahawks have used him only on short throws. This week he’s got a matchup where he could put up his best game of the season on those short throws. The Giants rank 30^th in overall pass defense DVOA, 27^th in pass defense DVOA on short throws, and have allowed the 7^th-most yards after catch this season. You still can’t start Smith-Njigba in most formats, but he’s got a little more upside this week than usual in deeper full PPR leagues.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Hyatt was predictably blanked by the 49ers on Thursday night, but he gets a much more favorable matchup in week 4. The Seahawks have coughed up over 300 passing yards in each of their first 3 games and have given up 17 completions of 20+ yards and 5 of 30+ yards. The Giants should get Hyatt a couple of deep targets in this game, and it would only take one deep connection to make him a worthwhile play in showdown DFS contests.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4 was one of those weeks that reminds you just how tough this game can be to predict. It wasn’t exactly a banner week here at the Rookie Report, as a lengthy list of players I liked to have solid games – Bryce Young, Jahmyr Gibbs, Roschon Johnson, Zach Charbonnet, JSN, Tank Dell, Jordan Addison, and Luke Musgrave – were huge disappointments. I also didn’t feel great about CJ Stroud or Michael Wilson in week 4, and both turned in top-10 finishes.

Some weeks are going to be like that. Making the right decisions for your lineup isn’t about being perfect every week, and you’ll drive yourself nuts if that’s your goal. All you can do is use the information available to try and give yourself the best chance to win. You can’t kick yourself for not making an irrational decision like starting Michael Wilson over Calvin Ridley, or Jaylen Warren over Jahmyr Gibbs, even though those moves would’ve resulted in more points in your lineup.

I’ll continue to let talent, usage and matchups be my guide in breaking down the outlook for the rookie class each week and following that is going to put you in better position to win more weeks than not.

This week we hit the first of the NFL’s bye weeks, so you may be searching for fill-ins for every week starters like Justin Herbert or Kenneth Walker III, and you might be looking at a rookie as an option to step in and fill the void, so let’s talk about what to expect from the rookies this weekend.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 5:

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Anthony Richardson, IND (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): Richardson returned last Sunday after missing week 3 with a concussion, and he quickly reminded us that he has the potential to break fantasy this season, finishing as the QB2 for the week behind only Josh Allen. Richardson has played just two full games so far, and he logged 10 rushing attempts, multiple total TDs, and over 20 fantasy points in both. He also tallied 17.7 points in just over a quarter against Houston before suffering his concussion. The Titans are just a middling QB defense, allowing the 14^th-fewest QB points per game, but they rank 25^th in Aaron Schatz’s pass defense DVOA. You should be treating Richardson as a top-5 fantasy QB this week.

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 5: vs. Hou.): Robinson had a field day in London, getting back into the RB1 column with his 3^rd top-12 PPR finish in 4 games. He’s now seen at least 5 targets in all 4 games and ranks 3^rd among all running backs in routes run. This week he faces off with a Texans defense that allows the 7^th-most running back points per game and ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA. The Texans also rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. All systems are go for Bijan this week. He’s a slam dunk top-10 RB option.

RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): Achane followed up his 50-point explosion in week 3 with another dynamite performance in week 4, tallying 27 PPR points and finishing the week as the RB5. He was one of the few bright spots for Miami’s offense in a 28-point drubbing at the hands of the Bills. Achane totaled 120 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs on just 11 touches, but what’s more exciting is that he’s seemingly moved ahead of Raheem Mostert on the depth chart. Achane was on the field for 66% of the offensive snaps and in a route on 68% of the team’s passing dropbacks. He also handled the only carries inside the 5-yard line. He’s now the 1A back in this offense, and this week they face a Giants defense that has allowed the 10^th-most RB points per game and ranks 22^nd in run defense DVOA. There’s no reason to sit him in what should be an easier matchup this week. Achane is a top-10 RB play this week.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): The Rams might get Cooper Kupp back this week, but you can’t sit Nacua with the way he’s been playing. Puka has been playing primarily on the perimeter, and Kupp works mostly from the slot, so there’s room in this offense for both to thrive. Nacua has been rewriting the rookie record books through 4 weeks, averaging nearly 10 catches for 125 yards on 13 targets per game, and the Eagles have allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game. Kupp’s return could put a dent into Puka’s target share, but that likely means he’s more of a WR2 than a surefire WR1 for fantasy lineups. There’s still a chance that Kupp doesn’t return this week as well. Don’t be afraid to start Nacua this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 5: @Atl.): With Justin Herbert and Geno Smith on byes this week, I think it pushes Stroud into the top-12 QBs for the week. He’s been flat out dealing over the last 3 weeks, averaging 323 yards, 2 TDs, and zero INTs per game, and he faces an Atlanta defense that ranks 27^th in pass defense DVOA. Atlanta has also struggled to defend the run, so QBs haven’t piled up a ton of volume against them. No passer has thrown for 250+ yards against Atlanta yet this season, but the Texans are a pass-first team and Stroud should have a great chance to be the first. He’s a back end QB1 option this week.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): Gibbs has continued to look impressive with his touches, but also continued to disappoint fantasy managers over the last month. David Montgomery returned from injury in week 4 and went right back to a 70% snap share and dominating the goal line carries. Montgomery scored 3 touchdowns on Thursday night and is up to 5 scores in 3 games. Gibbs is yet to score his first NFL touchdown. For the time being, we need to readjust our expectations for Gibbs and treat him like a weekly RB3 option rather than the potential RB1 we drafted him to be. With that said, this week Gibbs gets a juicy matchup and should probably be in lineups if you can make room for him. Carolina has allowed the 4^th most RB points per game so far, and they rank dead last in run defense DVOA. Detroit has one of the highest implied point totals of the week at 27 points, so this is an offense to target. Don’t count on a full complement of snaps, but Gibbs should see a dozen or so touches and find his way to an RB2 finish.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ): This is contingent on Javonte Williams not playing this week, but if the hip injury Williams sustained against the Bears keeps him out on Sunday, I like McLaughlin as a back end RB2 option in a reasonable matchup with the Jets. Samaje Perine would likely lead the Broncos in snaps if Williams sits (Perine out-snapped McLaughlin 22-16 in week 4), but the Broncos made a point last week to get the ball into McLaughlin’s hands. McLaughlin touched the ball on 10 of his 16 snaps and he caught a receiving TD before Williams had even been hurt, and he’s been significantly more explosive than Perine so far this season. McLaughlin has averaged nearly 3 yards per touch and 4.5 yards per rush more than Perine over the last 3 weeks. The Jets have allowed the 11^th-most RB points per game and are one of just 8 teams allowing 6 or more running back receptions per game. There’s room here for another strong performance from the rookie back. Just know that there is some built-in risk since McLaughlin’s production is more a result of efficiency than volume.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 5: vs. KC): Addison put up a frustrating goose egg last week on just 1 target in a game where the Vikings threw the ball just 19 times. The upside case for Addison is that this offense passes at such a high volume that even as Minnesota’s WR3 he’s going to put up useful fantasy stat lines. In weeks where they don’t throw a lot, floor weeks like this are a possibility. Luckily for Addison, the Vikings should throw plenty as 5-point underdogs against the defending champs on Sunday. Look for a bounce back game from the rookie WR against a KC pass defense that struggled to slow down Zach Wilson last Sunday night. I’d treat Addison as a WR3 this week.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Through his first 4 games, Flowers has put up consistent fantasy performances despite some yo-yoing of his target totals. In weeks 1 and 3, Flowers earned 10 targets in each game, but in weeks 2 and 4 he earned just 9 targets total. The Ravens have at least done us the favor of getting him those targets further downfield in the games where the targets haven’t been as plentiful. He’s had an aDOT below 4 yards in both games with 10 targets, and an aDOT above 12 yards in both games with fewer targets, and it’s resulted in Flowers reaching 50 scrimmage yards and 8+ PPR points in all 4 games. There’s a little more risk this week in firing up Flowers with Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham both likely to return from injury for week 5, but Zay is still the team’s WR1 and faces a promising matchup. The Steelers have allowed the 3^rd-most points per game to opposing wide receivers, and Flowers is still a great upside WR3/4 option this week.

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 5: @LV): The return of Christian Watson limited Reed to his lowest target share of the season, but he’s still earned 5+ targets in all 4 games and had an aDOT of 14+ yards in 3 of them. Watson’s snap share may increase further in his second game back, but I still like Reed’s chances of posting a strong fantasy day this week. The Raiders rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 5^th-fewest PPR points to receivers lined up on the perimeter. Reed functions as the Packers’ primary slot receiver, aligning in the slot for 73% of his snaps. The Raiders allow the 12^th-most PPR points to receivers lined up in the slot. It’s still going to be a bit of a weekly guessing game to figure out which Packer WRs to trust in fantasy, but the matchup suggests that Reed should be in line for a strong outing on Monday. I like him as a WR3/4 option this week and would rank him just ahead of Tank Dell for week 5.

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): LaPorta finished outside the top-12 PPR tight ends for the first time in week 4, but he still earned 5 targets for the 4^th consecutive game and topped 50 yards for the third game in a row. His role has been very stable, and while the Panthers have allowed just the 8^th-fewest TE points per game, they’ve struggled to contain the position when it’s actually targeted. Carolina ranks in the bottom-5 in the league with 9 yards per target allowed to opposing tight ends. LaPorta is a fringe TE1 this week, even in a matchup that looks tough at first glance.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 5: @Det.): I was excited about Bryce’s chances at a big game last week against a porous Viking defense, and while he did play his most efficient game of the season, he finished with just 7 fantasy points and certainly didn’t help you win your matchups if you started him. The increase in efficiency was a good sign. Bryce set season-highs in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating, but he took too many drive killing sacks and gave away a TD on a fumble that proved to be the difference in the game. Young isn’t throwing for enough yards or TDs to be trustworthy as a QB2 in lineups right now, and his opponent this week is much tougher than the Vikings. Detroit ranks 8^th in pass defense DVOA and should be able to keep Bryce mostly in check. I’d view him as a dicey QB2 option this week.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 5: @Was.): Roschon’s playing time went in the wrong direction in week 4 as the Bears played mostly from in front against Denver. He was out-snapped by Khalil Herbert 55 to 15. It was really the first chance we’ve had to see the Bears play with a lead, so for now I would assume this is what the RB usage will look like when that happens. Chicago is a 5.5-point underdog this week, so the game script should be Roschon-friendly, but even when that’s been the case in previous weeks, Johnson his split the backfield work with Herbert and averaged just 9 touches per game. He’ll need efficiency to get by, and the Commanders rank 9^th in run defense DVOA. Roschon is in play as a fringe RB3 option, but I’d prefer to look elsewhere this week.

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 5: @Atl.): Dell followed up back-to-back 20-point PPR games with a 1-catch, 29-scrimmage yard dud in week 4 against the Steelers. Through 4 games, it’s starting to feel like each game is either going to be a Tank Dell game or a Nico Collins game. Robert Woods hasn’t put up big fantasy production, but his role has been stable. He’s been right around a 20% target share every week, and between a 20% and 30% air yardage share in each game. Dell and Collins have seen much bigger weekly fluctuations. Collins had air yardage shares of 64% in week 1 and 42% in week 4, both games where he led the WR room in fantasy points. Dell was at 54% in week 3, when he finished as the PPR WR7. The duo was much closer together in air yards in week 2, when both players produced strong fantasy days. Overall, it’s been Collins who has more consistently seen downfield targets and has out-produced the rookie in 3-of-4 games. For the time being, I’d consider Collins a weekly WR2 option, and Dell a weekly WR3/4 option. The Falcons are not a good pass defense, ranking just 27^th in pass defense DVOA, but they also don’t face a ton of passing volume as they’re a bad run defense too. Atlanta has allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. That likely lower pass volume for the Texans has me leaning towards leaving Dell on the bench this week, but he’s right on the borderline.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Wilson posted a monster game in tough matchup with the 49ers last weekend, piling up a line of 7-76-2 on 7 targets, but it wasn’t due to some sort of fundamental change in his usage. Wilson logged a route participation rate of 74% in week 4 (his second-lowest mark of the season), and earned a 17% target share, which was his highest of the season but not by a wide margin. It’s a great sign that Wilson is seeing the ball come his way more often, but last week’s result was likely a bit of an outlier. Wilson has been very efficient this season, catching 89% of his targets and putting up nearly 15 yards per target. The Bengals this season have allowed just a 56.6% completion rate on throws to receivers and 7.8 yards per target. Expecting a top-20 finish out of Wilson this week is probably wishful thinking. You could certainly plug him in as a WR3/WR4 option, especially in deeper leagues, but he should be viewed as more of a floor play this week.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): The matchup is a good one this week for Downs against a Tennessee defense that ranks 25^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 7^th-most PPR points to opposing receivers lined up in the slot, but the overall volume just hasn’t been there for Downs and we don’t know what kind of impact Jonathan Taylor’s return will make on the team’s pass rate going forward. Downs has been held below 40 yards in all 3 games that Anthony Richardson has started, and even if he breaks that streak this week in this good matchup, he’s probably still just barely scratching and clawing his way to double-digit PPR points. Downs is a WR4 option this week in PPR leagues only.

WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ): Mims came up with his 5^th catch of 30+ yards in the last 3 weeks against the Bears on Sunday, but the Broncos continue to frustratingly limit his playing time. He ran just 12 routes in that game and faces a tougher matchup this week against the Jets. The Jets’ defense has allowed the 4^th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. I don’t love Mims’ chances of pulling in a deep ball or two in this matchup.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 5: @Det.): Mingo will return from his concussion this week, and he’s been he’s been a constant on the field when he’s been healthy, logging route participation rates of 93% and 97% in the first two games of the season. It remains to be seen if he’ll return to that same role since all of Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Terrace Marshall Jr. have posted 14+ PPR points in a game since Mingo’s injury. There are volume concerns with the Panthers averaging just 168 passing yards per game in Bryce Young’s starts, and the Lions rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA. If Mingo has a breakout game this week, it would be totally unexpected. I’d keep him parked on the bench.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 5: @LV): Musgrave has cleared the concussion protocol and will return to face the Raiders on Monday night, and I expect his role to pick up where it left off. He’ll still function as the full-time tight end and the Raiders have allowed the 11^th-most TE points per game, so he is a viable starting option in this one. My concerns are that no tight end has caught for big volume against the Raiders (no tight end has reached 45 receiving yards against them this season), and we still haven’t seen if Musgrave’s targets will take a hit at all with Christian Watson back in the lineup since the rookie tight end was injured so early on in week 3. I wouldn’t bank on more than 5 or so targets for Musgrave this week, and that means you’re holding out hope for a touchdown. The Raiders have allowed 2 tight end scores in their first 4 games, so that TD is very much in play. If any of the teams on byes this week had a top-12 tight end, I’d probably be more bullish on Musgrave finishing that high this weekend. Instead, I’ll say that I’d consider him a top-16 option at TE for week 5.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Jax.): Kincaid was in a route on nearly 80% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks in week 4, but he logged his 3^rd game this season with fewer than 30 receiving yards. His targets continue to come mostly within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, which sort of misses out on the biggest advantage of playing with Josh Allen – his arm strength and willingness to take deep shots. Allen ranked 3^rd in the league in deep ball attempts last year, but Kincaid has had just 1 catch go for more than 10 yards this season. He gets a favorable matchup this week as the Jaguars allow the 6^th-most TE points per game, but I can’t recommend starting Kincaid given what his usage has looked like. You could plug him in as a desperation bye week fill in, but there just aren’t any top-flight tight ends on byes this week that you’re in need of replacing.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Jimmy Garoppolo is practicing as of Thursday, but has not yet cleared the NFL concussion protocol, leaving open the possibility that O’Connell will get a second start this week. The 4^th-round pick handled himself well at times in his first start and did a good job of getting the ball to Davante Adams in the 2^nd half, but he also turned the ball over 3 times against a Chargers defense that had been the worst QB defense in the league through 3 weeks and finished as the QB23. With 4 teams on a bye, any starting QB is in consideration in Superflex leagues, but O’Connell would be toward the bottom of the list of starters this week if he starts. He gets a tougher matchup against Green Bay. The Packers have allowed the 15^th-fewest QB points per game. If AOC starts again, he’s nothing more than a desperation plug-in for 2-QB and superflex leagues.

RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Demercado has stepped in as the RB2 in Arizona with Keaontay Ingram battling a neck injury. He played 38% of the offensive snaps against the 49ers last Sunday, but that resulted in just 4 touches for 24 yards. He may get some extra run in weeks when the Cardinals are in catch-up mode as they were last week (Emari played 57% of the two-minute drill snaps in week 4), but this will remain James Conner’s backfield going forward. Demercado shouldn’t be a consideration as anything more than a waiver flyer in deeper dynasty leagues.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 5: @NE): Alvin Kamara returned from suspension in week 4 and dominated the Saints backfield. Kamara saw 11 carries and a whopping 14 targets against Tampa, while Miller and Tony Jones combined for just 1 target and 1 carry (both by Miller). Kendre’s opportunity to carve out a bigger role may have passed him by now that Kamara is back. He needs to stay on your bench (or dropped to the waiver wire).

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Buf.): Over the last 3 weeks combined, Bigsby has played 27 snaps and handled 5 carries and 1 target. There’s always a chance that Tank gets a goal line plunge, but if he doesn’t, he might give you less than 1 fantasy point. He’s not start-able for now.  

RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL (Wk. 5: @SF): Vaughn has handled 6+ touches in 3 of Dallas’ 4 games this season, but each of those games was a blowout win for the Cowboys. Dallas is a 4-point underdog on the road against the 49ers this week, and the odds of it being a laugher in the ‘Boys favor by halftime is almost zero. Don’t be surprised if Vaughn isn’t involved at all Sunday night.

WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Douglas tallied a 42-yard catch last Sunday at Dallas, but his playing time continues to be too limited to rely on. He draws targets when he’s on the field, with a 26% target per route run rate, but his route participation rate has been in the 40s in 3 games this season (and at 9% in the other game). That’s just not enough playing time to be useful in fantasy unless the Patriots are throwing the ball 45-50 times per game. They’ve attempted 29 and 30 passes in the last two weeks, and that number is unlikely to climb much this week. The Patriots-Saints tilt is one of just two games this week with a Vegas point total below 40 points.

WR Ronnie Bell, SF (Wk. 5: vs. Dal.): Bell scored a TD in week 3 with Brandon Aiyuk sidelined, but with Jauan Jennings out and Deebo Samuel serving as a decoy in week 4, Bell was limited to just 3 routes run. Bell is the WR5 in this offense behind that trio and Ray-Ray McCloud, which makes him waiver wire fodder in all but deep dynasty leagues.

WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB (Wk. 5: @LV): Wicks logged his lowest route participation rate of the season in week 4 with Christian Watson back in the lineup, but the drop-off in playing time wasn’t as drastic as expected. Wicks was still in a route on 57% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks as Watson played a limited number of snaps. The problem is that Wicks was targeted just once after averaging 5 targets per game in the previous 2 games. It’s only going to get harder for Wicks to earn more targets as Watson gets up to full strength. The Raiders are a terrible defense, and this would be a spot where Wicks would have some extra upside if we knew he was going to get opportunities, but it’s hard to count on that this week. 

TE Josh Whyle, TEN (Wk. 5: @Ind.): Whyle finished last week as a top-12 TE after earning his first 2 targets of the season and hauling in a 24-yard touchdown. Don’t expect that kind of output regularly. He’s run just 11 routes all season.

Rookies on Byes in Week 5: QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, CLE, RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA, RB Sean Tucker, TB, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA, WRs Quentin Johnston & Derius Davis, LAC, WR Trey Palmer, TB, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Will Levis, TEN, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Zach Evans, LAR, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Michael Mayer, LV, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 5: @Ind.): Spears hasn’t quite had a breakout game yet, but he’s been much more involved in the Tennessee offense than we could’ve anticipated. He played more than 50% of the offensive snaps and logged a 50% or better route participation rate in 3 of 4 games, including in week 4 when the Titans were rolling the Bengals. Derrick Henry has handled over 70% of the team rushing attempts in all 4 games this year, but it’s a great sign for Spears that he’s still playing that kind of snap share in games with positive game script. I wouldn’t plug in Spears this week – the Colts rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs, the plays where Spears can do the most damage - but if he’s floating around on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues, he probably shouldn’t be. He’s a dynamic back who is going to have breakthrough games at some point.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 5: @Min.): Rice has yet to hit 12 PPR points in a game this season, but it feels like it’s coming soon, possibly as soon as this week. Rashee has seen his playing time go up in the last two weeks at the expense of Skyy Moore and MVS. He’s logged right around a 50% route participation rate in each of the last two games, and he’s drawing targets on an incredible 32% of his routes run. He also leads the team with 6 red zone targets. Kansas City has made a more concerted effort to get the ball into Rice’s hands than any other receiver on the team. This week they face a Minnesota defense that has allowed the most WR fantasy points per game and ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs also have the 2^nd-highest implied point total in the league this week (29 points), so there should be some red zone opportunities. Rice is more of a WR4/5 option for this week, but I like his chances of posting his best fantasy day of the season in an inviting matchup.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 5: @Mia.): You probably didn’t notice it while the Giants were struggling to muster any offense on Monday night against the Seahawks, but Jalin Hyatt was on the field and in a route for 59% of the Giants’ passing dropbacks. It was the first time this season that he’s eclipsed a 40% route participation rate, and it could be a sign that his playing time is increasing. You can chalk the playing time up to garbage time in a blowout loss if you want to, but this is a New York team that has been competitive just once in 4 games, and Hyatt didn’t see this much playing time in the other two blowouts. I think the Giants are looking for anything to spark this offense, and Hyatt’s deep speed could be an answer. The Dolphins are double-digit favorites in this game, so the Giants should again be playing catch-up, but Miami’s pass defense has had significant struggles this season. They rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game. They also allowed 4 completions of 25+ yards to the Broncos in their week 3 blowout win, including 2 to rookie Marvin Mims Jr. We’ve seen Miami’s defense lose focus when playing with a comfortable lead, and with Hyatt’s deep speed, we only need that to happen a couple times for the rookie to have a fruitful game. This is much more of a DFS consideration rather than a recommendation to plug him into season-long lineups, but I like Hyatt’s chances of getting loose for a deep ball or two on Sunday.

TE Darnell Washington, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): I’m just mentioning Washington here because the Steelers expect to be without Pat Freiermuth for a couple weeks with a hamstring injury, and that likely means a bigger role is coming for Washington in those games. He’s already played a snap share above 40% in each of the last 3 games, and I’d expect his route participation rate to come up with Muth sidelined. It was third-string tight end Connor Heyward who drew 4 targets in week 1 when Freiermuth was banged up, but Washington has a lot more size than Heyward and could be an attractive red zone target. I wouldn’t plug Washington into lineups this week against Baltimore (the Ravens allow the 2^nd-fewest TE points per game), but he’s worth a flyer in deep TE premium leagues in case he takes a true lead tight end role ahead of Heyward. The Steelers face a bottom-10 TE defense in week 7, and Freiermuth might not be back yet for that game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! With Taylor Swift not at the Chiefs-Vikings game last weekend, it freed all of us up to focus on the dominant storyline that actually matters to the fantasy football season: injuries. The first five weeks of the season have been an absolute meat grinder for fantasy lineups. If you haven’t lost a star player to injury yet, count yourself lucky. Week 5 added some more prominent names to the list – Justin Jefferson, James Conner, Anthony Richardson, and De’Von Achane all hit injured reserve this week. All you can do when you lose key players is keep plugging away and find suitable replacements.

The rookie crop continued to impress in week 5, as Puka Nacua wasn’t phased at all by the return of Cooper Kupp, Bijan Robinson scored one of the coolest highlight-reel touchdowns of the season to-date, and Bryce Young posted his first 3-TD game of his career. Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice and Josh Downs turned in solid fantasy games as well, and there are some new rookies who could make an impact in week 6 and beyond as a result of last weekend’s injuries. There’s a lot to sort out with the rookies this week, and luckily, I’m here to walk you through it as always.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 6:

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 6: vs. Was.): Bijan hasn’t quite been the top-5 back that we drafted him to be thus far in his rookie campaign, but with so many top backs banged up or underperforming, Robinson is still a locked-in top-10 RB option every week. He’s scored 10+ PPR points and handled 14+ touches in every game this season, and that workload should be plenty against a middling Commanders run defense. Washington has allowed the 13^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 16^th in Aaron Schatz’s run defense DVOA. Keep Bijan in the lineup this week.

WR Puka Nacua, ARI (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): Nacua’s first week with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup went as swimmingly as we could’ve hoped. He tallied 7-71-1 on 11 targets against the Eagles last Sunday. It’s true last weekend’s game script was largely neutral, and this week’s could be more positive with the Rams favored by 6.5 points, but Nacua should be able to do damage before the game gets out of hand against an Arizona team that ranks 30^th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 7^th-most WR points per game. Keep starting Puka with confidence. 

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 6: @TB): LaPorta set season-low marks in targets and receptions in week 5, but he found the end zone twice en route to a TE5 finish for the week. He gets his toughest test of the season this week against a Bucs defense that ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 10^th-fewest TE points per game, but Sammy Ballgame has finished as a top-8 TE in 4 out of 5 games this season. I wouldn’t lump him in with the elite TEs this week given the tougher matchup, but he’s still a top-10 option at the position for me. LaPorta popped up on the injury report as a DNP on Thursday, so keep an eye on this situation and have a backup plan ready to go if for some reason LaPorta doesn’t play.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Keep an eye on the injury report here as Johnson is still trying to get cleared from a concussion suffered last Thursday, but with Khalil Herbert sidelined by a multi-week injury, Johnson should be in line for the lead back role this week if he can get cleared in time. D’Onta Foreman would undoubtedly mix in as well, but Johnson could be in line for 15 or so touches against a Minnesota team that ranks 14^th in run defense DVOA. I’d treat Johnson as a high-end RB3 or better if he’s able to play this week.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 6: @Chi.): Addison realistically could be placed in the category above this one this week with Justin Jefferson on IR. Reports from the team have indicated that KJ Osborn will step into the Vikings “X” WR role that Jefferson usually plays, but Addison is averaging 6 targets per game and should see an uptick in targets while JJ is out. There’s a chance that the Vikings will lean on the run game more this week with Jefferson out, but the Bears’ defense ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA and the Vikings lead the NFL in passing attempts. There’s no guarantee that the game script will be positive this week with how resurgent the Bears’ offense has been in the last two games. I’d feel confident starting Addison as a WR3 this week.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 6: @Ten.): Flowers finished as the PPR WR25 last week while leaving at least a dozen more points on the field due to drops and stumbles, and this week he faces a Tennessee defense that allows the 8^th-most WR points per game and ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing team’s WR1. Flowers should be locked into lineups as a solid WR3 in a plus matchup. The usage should continue to be strong as Flowers has earned a 30% target share for the season.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 6: @Jax.): The injury to Anthony Richardson might prove to be a good thing for Downs. The Colts should be an inherently more pass-heavy team with Gardner Minshew at QB, and although Downs won’t see more downfield targets with Minshew, he’s likely to see more targets overall. Minshew has averaged 38 pass attempts per game in his last 3 starts in a Shane Steichen offense, and Downs earned 12 targets in Minshew’s one start this year (no more than 7 in any other game this season). Look for Minshew to continue to pepper Downs with short targets this week, and he should again be able to compile his way to a PPR WR3 performance against a middling Jacksonville WR defense (15^th-most WR points allowed per game).

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 6: vs. Den.): Rice has continued to earn targets at a high rate when he’s on the field, and he posted a top-24 finish last week after finding the end zone for the 2^nd time this season. The concern is that Rice’s playing time has been inconsistent. He was in a route on just 23% of the team’s passing dropbacks in week 5, but every Kansas City skill player is in play this week against a barely-there Broncos defense. Denver ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and the Chiefs have the 2^nd-highest implied Vegas point total for the week. Rice is targeted on more than a third of his routes run, and against this defense, he’s got a chance at another WR2 finish if things break his way this week. There’s a lower floor here than you might be comfortable with, but enough upside to give him strong consideration.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 6: @LAR): Wilson dropped a disappointing dud on us in week 5 with just 1 catch for 18 yards, but I think a bounce-back could be in the offing this week. 15 of Wilson’s 18 targets this season have come vs. zone coverage, and the Rams play zone at one of the highest rates in the league. LA has allowed the 5^th fewest WR points per game, but they also rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA and are nearly a touchdown favorite in this game, so the Cardinals should be throwing. Wilson topped 50 yards in 3 straight games prior to last week’s dud, and I like his chances to get back there this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. NO): Stroud has been easily the most consistent of the rookie QBs so far this season, putting up at least 240 yards in every start and multiple TDs in 3 out of 5. But perhaps the craziest stat about Stroud is that he hasn’t taken a single sack in the last 3 games despite playing behind a beleaguered offensive line. The Saints present a new challenge this week. They’ve allowed the 7^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA. Baker Mayfield was able to throw 3 TDs against these Saints a couple weeks ago, so there is hope, but Stroud has finished higher than QB12 just once. This week, in a tough matchup, doesn’t feel like a good spot to bet on him to finish higher than that again. He’s a QB2 option for week 6.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 6: @TB): Gibbs managers got some cold water dumped on them this week as Detroit head coach Dan Campbell talked up David Montgomery’s role as the team’s workhorse back and referred to Gibbs as a “change of pace” guy. It’s what we’ve already seen play out on the field so far this season, but it still feels like pouring salt in an open wound to hear Campbell say it out loud. Gibbs’ workload in that change of pace role will keep him in the range of flex options for fantasy leagues, but the matchup this week is one that I don’t feel great about for him. The Bucs allow the 12^th-fewest RB points per game, and they rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing running backs. That dicey matchup puts Gibbs on the wrong side of the borderline for me…and that’s if he’s even able to play. He’s still questionable after suffering a hamstring injury late last week that kept him out in week 5.

RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 6: @LAR): James Conner has been placed on IR after suffering a knee injury against the Bengals in week 5, opening a void in the Cardinals’ backfield. Demercado has emerged as the popular waiver wire choice to replace him after tallying 53 yards and a score against Cincy, but things get messier with the return of Keaontay Ingram this week. Ingram was the backup to Conner to open the season, and opened the door to playing time for Demercado with a neck injury he suffered in week 3. Ingram is expected to return this week, and the Cardinals have officially listed him as the starter on the depth chart. The likeliest outcome here is that both backs split the backfield work, with early downs leaning more toward Ingram and passing downs more toward Demercado. Emari ran double the passing routes that Ingram did in the games where both were active, and his 3 receptions last week are just two short of Ingram’s career total of 5. The Cardinals are likely to be significant underdogs in each of their next 4 games, so I’d prioritize Demercado over Ingram as a pickup, especially in PPR leagues, but both will make for dicey start options outside of deep leagues.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 6: @KC): McLaughlin looked explosive in the last two weeks, piling up over 80 scrimmage yards with a TD in each game, but the return of Javonte Williams this week likely causes this to devolve into a messy 3-way committee. With Williams out last week, McLaughlin played only half as many snaps as Samaje Perine, but he made the most of those opportunities with 12 touches on 19 snaps. Williams is off the injury report and will play on Thursday, so I’d expect Jaleel to see closer to 5-8 touches against the Chiefs. That’s just not enough work to trust him in lineups unless you’re desperate.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 6: @Hou.): Miller had his best game of the season in week 5, tallying 90 scrimmage yards on 16 touches, but he was out-touched by Alvin Kamara 11-to-2 prior to the Saints going ahead by 3 touchdowns. The bulk of his work came in garbage time. Of course, there’s a chance that there’s more garbage time this week against the Texans, but Houston has been better than expected so far and enters the week as just a 1.5-point underdog. Miller likely doesn’t see the same workload this week and should be kept on the bench.

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): The Titans have struggled to control games early on this season, and Spears has benefited from those struggles. As the primary receiving back, he inevitably gets more playing time when the Titans are behind on the scoreboard, and that’s resulted in him playing more than 50% of the team snaps in 4 out of 5 games this year. He’s also earned 4+ targets in 4 out of 5 games this year. I don’t like his chances of turning in a strong game against the Ravens even if he hits those marks for a 5^th time. Baltimore allows the 11^th-fewest RB points per game this year, and only two backs have topped 12 PPR points against them on the season (Joe Mixon and Zack Moss). The Titans are 4-point underdogs, so they should be playing from behind and afford Spears his usual workload, but I’d expect that to lead to high single-digit points against the Ravens.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 6: @Cin.): Charbonnet still isn’t seeing quite enough work to get real consideration for lineups. He played his lowest snap share of the season in week 4 against the Giants, but he did put up 40 scrimmage yards in that game. He’s done his best work in Seattle’s multi-score wins over the Panthers and Giants, and this week’s game seems unlikely to be a lopsided win as the Bengals got their mojo back last Sunday. Cincy is favored by 3 points in this game. The Bengals do rank 30^th in run defense DVOA, so Charbonnet should have a chance to have success with his opportunities. I’m just not confident that he’ll get enough of them to help your fantasy lineup this week.

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. NO): Dell isn’t practicing as of Thursday as he tries to clear the concussion protocol. As of now, it seems that he’ll miss this game with the Saints. Normally, I would be bullish on his outlook against the Saints as Dell averages nearly 5 yards per route run against man coverage, and the Saints play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. But with no practice time this week, and the Saints ranking 7^th in pass defense DVOA, I’d be inclined to sit Tank even if he gets cleared in time.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Mingo is coming off his best game of the season, putting up 5 catches for 48 yards on 7 targets in Detroit, but it was the first time all season that a healthy Mingo played behind DJ Chark in the WR pecking order. He was down to an 82% route participation rate after being above 90% in each of the first two games of the season. Mingo may have an extra chip on his shoulder this week due to rumors that the team will try to trade for Jerry Jeudy, but Mingo’s best game of the season didn’t earn him a top-36 finish last week. If you believe that the Panthers are better this week with a simplified offense, you could consider Mingo as a WR4 option, but I think the best course of action would be to leave him benched.

WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Johnston was up near a 70% route participation rate in week 4 ahead the Chargers’ bye with Mike Williams sidelined, but he still hasn’t topped 3 targets or 20 yards in a game, and Dallas allows the 4^th-fewest WR points per game. It doesn’t help Johnston that Dallas plays more man coverage than any other defense in the league. Per Roto Underworld, Johnston wins vs. man coverage just 11.1% of the time (121^st-best rate in the league). His breakout probably won’t happen this week.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 6: @Cin.): You probably don’t need me to tell you to sit JSN at this point. He’s reached 5 or more PPR points just once in the first 4 games, and the team refuses to use him down the field. His aDOT for the season is under 4 yards, and the Bengals rank 9^th in the league in pass defense DVOA on short throws. You shouldn’t be counting on a breakout game for Smith-Njigba this week.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. NYG): Keep an eye on the injury report here. Both Kincaid and Dawson Knox are listed as questionable and logging limited practices this week. If both play, Kincaid shouldn’t be trusted as anything more than an uninspiring TE2 option, but if Knox sits and Kincaid plays, there’s a little bit more upside for the rookie than usual. The Giants have allowed just the 12^th-fewest TE points per game, but that’s mostly because they haven’t allowed a tight end to score a TD. They’ve given up 8+ PPR points to a tight end in each of the last 3 games. Kincaid might be a fringe TE1 option if Knox sits.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Wk. 6: vs. SF): Deshaun Watson’s status still remains up in the air for this week’s tilt with the 49ers, but the Browns have said that if Watson can’t play, it’ll be PJ Walker who gets the start this time rather than DTR. Thompson-Robinson looked to be in over his head in his first start against Baltimore, and I’d imagine he’d suffer similar struggles if he got a chance against the 49ers.

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Ind.): Bigsby has handled exactly 3 opportunities in each of the last 3 games, and even if he scores a TD, that kind of workload isn’t going to be helpful in your lineups. He did see 7 carries and 1 target and found the end zone against the Colts in week 1, but nothing about his workload since that game suggests a repeat is likely here.

RB Eric Gray, NYG (Wk. 6: @Buf.): Gray got some extended opportunity last weekend with Saquon Barkley still sidelined, but he turned 13 touches into just 26 scoreless yards, and the Bills rank 13^th in run defense DVOA. Buffalo has struggled with top end backs like De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne all reaching 100 rush yards against them, but I expect they’ll have considerably less trouble with Gray if Barkley is out again. Even if Saquon sits, Gray will continue to split the backfield work with Matt Breida. Barkley has gotten in limited practices to start the week.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Tucker has totaled 23 rushing yards on 15 carries in his last 3 games combined, and this week faces a Detroit defense that ranks 4^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game. We can hope that Tucker got himself right over the bye week, but there’s no reason to expect a breakout game here.

RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. Ten.): Mitchell spent the first 5 weeks of the season on IR but looks likely to be activated this week. He beat out Melvin Gordon for a roster spot in training camp, so it’s possible that he immediately supplants Gordon as their RB3, but it’s a role that likely means only a few touches per game when both Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are active, as they should be this week.

RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL (Wk. 6: @LAC): Vaughn is averaging 5 touches per game this season, and while he hasn’t done much with those touches (9.9 total PPR points), the Chargers do allow the 8^th-most RB points per game. The problem for Vaughn is that just 7 of his 25 touches for the year have come in situations where the Cowboys were closer than 28 points apart from their opponents on the scoreboard. His usage has been almost entirely in garbage time, and the point spread in this game is just 2 points, so there shouldn’t be much of that.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Palmer has played close to a full-time role in the Bucs last two games, logging route participation rates of 86% and 79% in weeks 3 & 4, but he’s yet to top 3 targets in a game this season. He’s scored 2 TDs already this year, but he’s only reached 10 yards in a game once. The targets in the offense continue to funnel to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and that won’t change this week. If for some reason the hamstring injury Evans suffered in week 4 keeps him out this week, Palmer would bump up to a WR4/5 option, but all reports have suggested that Evans should be back for week 6. 

WR Jaylin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 6: @Buf.): Hyatt’s playing time has been headed in the right direction, and he’s been 2^nd among the Giants’ WRs behind Darius Slayton in routes run in each of the last two games, but he’s been targeted just 5 times on 98 routes run for the season. The problem is that Hyatt is mostly used on clear-out deep routes, and even when he’s able to get open on those routes, the Giants’ o-line isn’t holding up long enough to let Daniel Jones hit Hyatt on those plays. That shouldn’t change this week. No team has allowed more sacks this season than the Giants, and no defense has recorded more sacks than the Bills. Buffalo has racked up 18 sacks in the last 3 weeks, and they should make life miserable for Jones in week 6. Hyatt only needs 1 deep ball to turn in a respectable performance, but I don’t like the chances of Daniel Jones having enough time in the pocket to make that happen. If Jones misses this game and Tyrod Taylor starts instead I don’t think it will change a whole lot for Hyatt.

WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 6: vs. Sea.): Iosivas finally saw his first real opportunities with Tee Higgins sidelined in week 6, and while he made the most of his chances, his role isn’t big enough for fantasy consideration. Iosivas ran just 15 routes and was targeted twice, though he did make a dazzling toe-tap catch (that didn’t count when he was incorrectly ruled out of bounds and Zac Taylor opted not to challenge). He may continue to play an ancillary role until Higgins returns, but it won’t be a big enough role to use him in any lineups.

WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 6: @LV): Douglas is still fighting to clear the concussion protocol ahead of this week’s game, but even if he gets cleared, his limited role could get even smaller this week with the return of Tyquan Thornton from IR.

TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 6: vs. NE): After totaling just 1 catch for 2 yards in the first 4 weeks of the season, Mayer finally broke through with 2 grabs for 39 yards on Monday night against Green Bay. It was a promising performance for the rookie, but his route participation rate (46% in week 5) still leaves something to be desired. Mayer could be an intriguing speculative add for the back half of the season, but you can’t thrust him into lineups just yet.

 Rookies on Byes in Week 6: WRs Jayden Reed & Dontayvion Wicks, GB, TE Luke Musgrave, GB, TE Darnell Washington, PIT

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Anthony Richardson, IND, QB Will Levis, TEN, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB De’Von Achane, MIA, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Young posted his best game as a pro in week 5, piling up 247 yards and 3 TDs against the Lions, mostly in garbage time. He should be in line for more garbage time with the Dolphins favored by nearly 2 TDs this week. Garbage time passing opportunities don’t automatically mean another good game is coming for Bryce, but the Dolphins rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA on short throws, and Young has the 3^rd-shortest average target depth out of 33 qualified QBs. The Panthers have also talked about simplifying the offense going forward, and if that change delivers positive results Bryce should be able to finish as a mid-range QB2 this week.

RB Christopher Brooks, MIA (Wk. 6: vs. Car.): The Dolphins got devastating news this week when they learned that De’Von Achane’s injury suffered late in week 5 will require a stint on injured reserve for the dynamic runner. Raheem Mostert seems sure to see lots of action going forward, but it remains to be seen how the rest of the backfield will shake out while Achane is sidelined. The Dolphins may get both Salvon Ahmed and Jeff Wilson Jr. back from injury this week, but don’t discount the chances that Christopher Brooks carves out a role for himself. Brooks is a physical downhill runner who usually gets more than what’s blocked for him, and the Dolphins are going to like that even if he doesn’t have the type of speed of the other weapons in this offense. Don’t be surprised when Brooks is used as the closer in any blowout wins, like he was against the Broncos in week 3. Miami is a 2-TD favorite against the Panthers this week, so Brooks could have a prime opportunity for that kind of work this weekend against a Carolina defense that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA. He’s in play as a dart throw in deep leagues and DFS tournaments for week 6, but he’s also worth a waiver claim if you don’t need him this week in case he earns more than just that closer role.

RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): Evans isn’t a guy you can use anywhere right now, but he should be on your radar in deeper leagues, especially dynasty formats. Thus far, the Rams have been content to run Kyren Williams out at RB on more than 80% of their offensive snaps, but he’s been terribly inefficient with his opportunities. He ranks 37^th out of 41 qualified running backs in rushing yards over expectation. If that continues, the Rams may eventually look to improve their output at the position, and Evans could be the guy to get that opportunity. You don’t have to pick him up right this moment, but you should be aware of the situation.

WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 6: @KC): Mims isn’t likely to haul in a deep ball this week against a Kansas City defense that ranks 6^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, but he’s worth a speculative add if he’s still on your waiver wire as the Broncos released Lil’Jordan Humphrey this week and rumors are running rampant that Jerry Jeudy will be traded in short order. If Jeudy is moved, the team may finally have no choice but to give more playing time to the rookie wide receiver who ranks 1^st in the league with nearly 5 yards per route run. You’d be wise to beat the rush to the waiver wire when the Jeudy trade does happen and pick Mims up before it does.

WR Derius Davis, LAC (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Davis is worth keeping an eye on in leagues that give bonus points for return yards. With Mike Williams gone for the season, Davis was used as the WR4, and the team made a point to get him a few gadget touches in the run game with some success. Davis totaled 67 scrimmage yards on 5 touches in week 4. He also serves as the Chargers primary return man, so while he’s merely a deep league stash for now, it wouldn’t take a full role in the offense for him to have value in return yardage leagues. Think of him as the Chargers’ version of KaVontae Turpin.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Just one week into the season and we have already seen a lot!

But do we really KNOW anything based off of one week? As you’ll see in this week’s picks, no, not really! Don’t forget that just a couple years ago the Jaguars upset the Colts in week 1 and created a bit of a hype train for themselves!
…they proceeded to finish the season 1-15. Week 1 isn’t the end all-be all of the season.

So let’s get back to the games!

Week 2 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – DALLAS over New York Jets – Wow, welcome back to reality Jets fans!

15 – DENVER over Washington – You don’t get to almost lose to the Cardinals at home one week and win on the road the next…even if it is against the Broncos.

14 – PHILADELPHIA over Minnesota – No I don’t think that last week showed the true Vikings, just bad timing that they are part of the Eagles’ home opener.

13 – DETROIT over Seattle – Asterisk or no asterisk, the Lions beat Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead!

12 – PITTSBURGH over Cleveland – Sure this may seem a bit high, but I think last week was more about how good the 9ers are rather than the Steelers being bad.

11 – BUFFALO over Las Vegas – Safe to say the Bills have a lot of anger to take out on the Raiders this week.

10 – New Orleans over CAROLINA – It was a struggle for a team in the NFC South to finish above .500 last season…no real reason to think that will change this year.

9 – TAMPA BAY over Chicago – OK, maybe competing for the division title is at least another year away for these young Bears.

8 – CINCINNATI over Baltimore – I’m gonna go out on a limb and say Joe Burrow will hit triple digits in passing yards this week. That’s not even the Bold Prediction!

7 – Miami over NEW ENGLAND – HERE’S the Bold Prediction – my BOLD PREDICTION for the week is that with an off-season of Bills and Jets hype, THE DOLPHINS WILL WIN THE AFC EAST.

6 – New York Giants over ARIZONA – Keeping with the theme, I still believe the Giants are better than the 40-0 score from last week and can even beat the Cardinals.

5 – Los Angeles Chargers over TENNESSEE – The Titans just don’t have enough offensive firepower to keep up with the Chargers. Weird to say for an offense that includes Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins.

4 – JACKSONVILLE over Kansas City – AFC Championship preview? In the same stadium?

3 – Indianapolis over HOUSTON – This game will happen … follow along if you want.

2 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over San Francisco – If the Rams really are back, this will be the test.

1 - Green Bay over ATLANTA – Is Jordan Love for real or did he just play the Bears? Let’s find out!