OK, last week wasn’t all that great – only 62 out of a possible 105 points.
That’s OK though, there are going to be weeks where undefeated teams lose at home, Super Bowl champs are still given false hope and Good Morning Football hosts win a game – any given Sunday, right?
The key is to not let scores like that become a habit, which we haven’t yet this season…
…so let’s keep it rolling!
Week 11 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
14 – BALTIMORE over Carolina – The old saying is that if you have two QBs then you don’t have a QB…the Panthers are overachievers with having three QBs that make it seem like they don’t have a QB.
13 – BUFFALO over Cleveland – I’m just going to use this space as an appreciation for the workers who will be clearing, from what I’ve hear, roughly 24 feet of snow (give or take) from the field and the stands in Buffalo this weekend.
12 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Detroit – The Giants just seem to be getting winnable games on their schedule
11 – San Francisco over ARIZONA – Monday Night Football heads south of the border…seems like Mexico City will be getting a team in the near future – just my opinion, and Cardinals fans might be willing to offer their franchise at this point
10 – Philadelphia over INDIANAPOLIS – Sorry Jeff Saturday, can’t play the Raiders every Sunday
9 – DENVER over Las Vegas – Oh speaking of! I feel like the loser of this game should have to take the contracts of both head coaches
8 – Kansas City over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – Patrick Mahomes lost another receiver … … … yeah I don’t think it will matter either. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that even with the WR injuries, MAHOMES WILL STILL THROW FOR OVER 350 YARDS
7 – Cincinnati over PITTSBURGH – The Steelers stole an OT win in Cincy in week 1 – look for the Bengals to even up the road wins
6 – MINNESOTA over Dallas – I’m still trying to figure out how the Vikings won in Buffalo last week
5 – GREEN BAY over Tennessee – OK, I’ll give the Packers the benefit of the doubt this week
4 – NEW ORLEANS over Los Angeles Rams – No Kupp…no win – Rams fans should probably get used to this
3 – New York Jets over NEW ENGLAND – How much fun with the AFC East this year?
2 – ATLANTA over Chicago – Would really like to this this as a Fields vs Ridder matchup
1 – HOUSTON over Washington – If you think the Texans will win, keep them on the one-point line
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
10 for 10 on Field Goals
Also, 5 for 5 on extra points. This week saw the two kickers top the season-long scoring charts, and go perfect along the way. Brett Maher kicked 4 field goals and 4 extra points as the Cowboys destroyed the Vikings. His 23 fantasy points are better than anyone in the first 10 weeks of the season. Tyler Bass, meanwhile, made the most out of not having to kick outdoors in 6’ of snow. He went 6 for 6 on field goal attempts and, appropriately, added an extra point. Bass’s 26-point performance is the best of any kicker this season, with Maher’s week 11 the second best. Bass was the 10th highest-scoring player in all of fantasy football this week. He scored the most fantasy points in his game and Jacoby Brissett was right behind him at 25.86 points. If you had Bass and Brissett as the two highest scorers in a game that included Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Nick Chubb, then I’m calling you a liar.
10’s Wild
Derrick Henry has 10 rushing touchdowns on the season and 1,010 rushing yards so far. A very nice total after 10 games in the season. Henry has 7 games over 15 fantasy points, after starting the season with 2 games under 9 points. Six of those games are over 22 points. Three of his last four games have two touchdowns each (one of those a passing score this week). Henry is now the fifth player in history to rush for at least 10 touchdowns in five straight seasons. He’s the RB2 on the season, just 1.54 points behind Austin Ekeler, without ever leading the league in scoring in a given week.
11 Receiving Touchdowns
Travis Kelce leads the league in receiving touchdowns. His 3 on Sunday night, including the seemingly inevitable game-winner late in the 4th quarter. He’s now at 11 receiving scores on the season and just utterly dominating at his position. He’s the 4th highest-scoring non-QB fantasy player, but what’s perhaps more amazing is that he’s ahead of the TE2 by an astonishing 78.7 points. Mark Andrews, the TE2, has only 58% of Travis Kelce’s season-long point total. Kelce is officially an all-time great, as if there was any doubt, when he passed the one and only Gronk for most 100-yard receiving games by a TE in league history.
11 QBs with 20+ Points
For the second time this season, 11 QBs scored at least 20 fantasy points in one week. As of halftime on Monday night, Jimmy Garoppolo has a shot at being the 12th, which would be the high-water mark of this season. Included in these 11 QBs is Joe Burrow, topping the weekly list for the third time this year. Jacoby Brissett and Andy Dalton, are on an average of just 34% of rosters. Justin Fields for his 6th straight top-10 finish. And, though he’s pushed it the last two games, did not include Aaron Rodgers in the realm of 20-point scorers, yet again, like he has…all season long.
$20 Million in Salary Cap
If you told Jerry Jones that the $20 million in cap space that he’s devoting to the running back position produced 6 touchdowns and 573 yards from scrimmage from just one of the players, he might be pretty happy. If you told him that all that production comes from the guy who is using up less than 6% of that cap space, well, maybe his eyes might finally pop out of his head. Tony Pollard has been outstanding in his contract year with the Cowboys. While Ezekiel Elliott is looking at getting his contract picked up or not, Pollard is looking at dollar signs coming up in 2023. Pollard put up his second 33-point fantasy performance this season and is now the RB8 on the season – a far cry from his ADP of RB35. This guy is someone who is propelling your team to the playoffs if you landed him in the second half of your draft.
We’re back to full strength!
Well, at least for one week.
For the first time in weeks all 32 teams will be playing this week. Thanks to a full day’s worth of football action on Thursday, all teams will need to be on duty on Sunday! With that comes the chance for more points so let’s cushion our lead in the season long pools!
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! To take a short break from the football mentality, I do want to let you know that I am thankful to those that follow along with me and read my stuff – thank you!
OK…back to FOOTBALL!
Week 12 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – SAN FRANCISCO over New Orleans – To beat the 9ers you’re gonna need an offense that can at least try to keep up…that’s not the Saints.
15 – PHILADELPHIA over Green Bay – At least Packer fans will have a win against the Cowboys to hand on to this season.
14 – KANSAS CITY over Los Angeles Rams – Super Bowl preview it is not this year.
13 – MIAMI over Houston – If they set an over/under just for Miami’s points…whatever it is, take the over.
12 – Buffalo over DETROIT – Not having actually looked this, I do feel confident that the Bills could very well be the first non-Lions team to win in Detroit in back-to-back weeks
11 – MINNESOTA over New England – You know how I’ve mentioned that we remove our worst week from season-long pools? Yeah, Vikings will just remove last week from their schedules.
10 – Baltimore over JACKSONVILLE – This game will give you a sense that Lamar is getting a little jealous of the Just Fields attention. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that LAMAR JACKSON WILL RUSH FOR 100 YARDS.
9 – NEW YORK JETS over Chicago – Expect another solid Fields performance (if he plays) and another loss Bears fans – the perfect combination for a team in rebuild mode.
8 – WASHINGTON over Atlanta – This game will happen…there you go
7 – CLEVELAND over Tampa Bay – Welp, thanks for stopping by, Jacoby…
6 – DALLAS over New York Giants – Who knew that this would actually turn into a game worth being excited for during Thanksgiving dinner?
5 – Los Angeles Chargers over ARIZONA – I’m surprised I haven’t started watching the in-season Cardinals Hard Knocks yet, this seems like a team full of entertaining locker room drama!
4 – INDIANAPOLIS over Pittsburgh – Could Jonathan Taylor be coming back to a Jonathan Taylor level?
3 – SEATTLE over Las Vegas – As a Raider fan, the though of at least making it a game in Seattle would make me happy.
2 – TENNESSEE over Cincinnati – This is just going to be fun to watch.
1 – CAROLINA over Denver – Safe to say that the Panthers will rally behind (spins wheel) Sam Darnold!
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
14.6 Fantasy Points
This week, 14.6 fantasy points are more than the RB16, Ty Johnson scored. Josh Jacobs accomplished that on one play in OT. In total, he gained 109 yards and scored 1 TD in overtime – whatever fantasy player always dreams about when their players make it to overtime. On the day, Jacobs had an astounding 303 yards from scrimmage, scored 2 TDs, and added 6 receptions. He touched the ball 39 times and he was only tackled for a loss twice, losing just one yard each time. His grand total was 45.3 fantasy points, good for the second-highest total on the season among all players. Jacobs is now the RB1 on the season and is the only RB averaging more than 20 points per game. He’s leading the league in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage. Having 303 in one game will do that for ya.
81.1% Completion Rate
Well, it’s only fair that I praise Kirk Cousins a bit for showing up on a prime-time game after I was so rough on him last week. Kirk has a reputation for turning in clunkers when he’s playing in the only game on, but that was not the case on Thanksgiving night. It was probably Kirk’s best game of the season, completing 30 of 37 passes and throwing for 299 yards, his second-highest total of the season, as well as the first time he’s thrown for 3 TDs all year. Cousins has the 4th most passing attempts in the league on the season, which is pretty necessary considering the Vikings' defense is giving up the most passing yards of any team in the league.
145 Receiving Yards
The player who’s sure to be the hottest waiver pickup of the week, Zay Jones, helped his team clinch a win over Baltimore in a really exciting finish. The Ravens-Jaguars game featured 4 touchdowns, 1 field goal, and two 2-point conversions all in the 4th quarter. Jones led the way for his team through the air, catching 11 passes for 145 yards and the all-important 2-point conversion at the end of the game. He caught two other passes on the final drive (5 total in the quarter) and finished as the WR5 on the week. He's only on 40% of Fleaflicker rosters at the moment, and that’s certain to shoot way up after waivers go through tomorrow night. Jones has now been targeted at least 8 times in 6 out of 10 games this season. This is his first time over 100 receiving yards this year, and only the second time in his career. He's starting to be a very important piece of a passing offense that is starting to click in Jacksonville.
76 Receiving Yards
There was only one TE this week who had more than 50% of Zay Jones’ yardage total. Josh Oliver of the Ravens topped the charts with 76 yards. He was also the TE2 on the week with 15.6 points, thanks to a touchdown late in the 4th quarter of their game. Oliver is rostered in only 1% of Fleaflicker leagues, and he is one of three TEs in the top 10 this week who are rostered in less than 10% of all leagues on Fleaflicker. If you extend the list a little, there are 6 of the top 15 TEs that were free agents in over 90% of Fleaflicker leagues when their game kicked off on Sunday. This is only the second time all season that Travis Kelce has finished outside of the top 3 TEs in fantasy points for the week. He finished 4th. What a bum. Time to drop him and pick up Josh Oliver.
0.38 Fantasy Points
Sometimes, a leader is hard to spot. Technically, Patrick Mahomes is ahead of Josh Allen in season-long fantasy points, but damn are they close. Mahomes has 288.80 points, while Allen has 288.42 points. That’s a difference of just 10 passing yards. Or 4 rushing yards. Hell, a touchdown would swing this wildly in someone’s favor. Both QBs have been at or near the top spot all season, and Allen really closed the gap with the best QB performance of the week in the very first game we got to watch this week. Allen threw two passing TDs and ran in another one, and added 78 rushing yards to top 30 fantasy points for the third time this year, but the first time since week 5. Allen doesn’t lead the league in any significant stat categories, showing that he has a well-rounded game. Oh wait, he leads the league in interceptions with 11 (tied with Davis Mills). I suppose that’s significant in a different way.