Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The last 7 days around the NFL have been an absolute whirlwind. We’ve seen a potential Hall of Famer get traded (Von Miller), another future Hall of Famer be proven to be dishonest about his vaccination status (Aaron Rodgers), a disgruntled star wide receiver get told to stay away from his team after allegedly orchestrating a social media campaign against his QB (Odell Beckham Jr.), and another star WR step away from football to work on his mental health (Calvin Ridley). The worst news of the week, however, was the arrest of Henry Ruggs, and the tragic circumstances around it. Ruggs was driving faster than 150 MPH while at twice the legal blood alcohol limit and crashed into and killed a young Las Vegas woman. Ruggs’ recklessness likely means the end of his NFL career, but that is the least important part of sorting through the wreckage that his irresponsible decisions caused.

None of these news updates even touch on the action we saw on the field last week, and that action was wild enough on its own. No one saw the Mike White-led Jets or Cooper Rush-led Cowboys picking up upset wins this week, or the ultra-durable Derrick Henry suffering a season-ending foot injury. I also didn’t see disappearing acts coming from Kyle Pitts, Kenneth Gainwell, and DeVonta Smith. Michael Carter, Elijah Mitchell, and Justin Fields pick up the rookie slack. Which rookies are going to step up in week 9 and help you fill in for your byes and injured players? Let’s take a look and find out.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game Let’s dive into week 9…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 9: vs. Pit.): You already know to start Harris, but his recent usage has been in the Derrick Henry range. Over the past 3 games, Harris has averaged 24 carries and 5 targets per game, this week he faces a defense that has allowed over 130 rushing yards to opposing backs in each of their last 3 games. The Bears rank 24^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Harris is a locked-in RB1 again this week, even without stellar rushing efficiency.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Cle.): Chase had one of the worst fantasy games we’ve seen from him in his rookie season, with a season-low 32 receiving yards. He still finished the week as the WR27. He’s a must-start, and this week he faces a defense allowing the 15^th-most WR points per game. Keep Chase locked into your lineups.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 9: @NO): Was week 8 a frustrating one for you if you started Kyle Pitts? You bet it was, but I’m comfortable going back to the well this week. The Falcons didn’t know until Sunday morning that they were going to be without star wide receiver Calvin Ridley and had no film on how the Panthers would deploy CB Stephon Gilmore, as he was making his first appearance for the team. With Ridley out, the Falcons offense was out of sorts, and Gilmore was able to shadow Pitts all game. Pitts’ production was terrible, finishing with just 2 catches for 13 yards on 6 targets, but his usage was a level rarely seen by a tight end. Pitts was in a route on 97% of Matt Ryan’s dropbacks, and those 6 targets still represented a 22% target share as Matt Ryan threw just 27 times. The Falcons will be able to prepare all week knowing they won’t have Ridley. They’re going to be much more creative in finding ways to ensure that Pitts isn’t followed around by Marshon Lattimore all day, and Pitts should be in line for a nice bounce back game. It’s true the Saints allow just the 5^th-fewest TE points per game, but they’ve faced just one tight end all year that’s currently better than the TE20 on the season. Don’t run from the matchup. Pitts should be in your lineup this week unless you have an elite top-5 TE option to start over him.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 9: @Car.): If this were last year, the Panthers would be exactly the kind of defense Mac Jones would be licking his chops to face. The 2020 version of the Panthers were content to sit back in zone coverage and let teams pick them apart underneath, but not give up the deep ball. They had the 9^th-lowest blitz rate, and the 12^th-lowest press coverage rate in the league. The 2021 Panthers, on the other hand, have the 4^th-highest rates in both areas. They play aggressive in coverage, and they get after you up front, and the addition of Stephon Gilmore has them back to playing defense at a high level after a few shakier defensive weeks. Jones has been efficient through his first half-season, but it hasn’t come with much fantasy upside, and this week could be a challenging one. The reason I list Mac as a borderline option is because I see him as a borderline QB2 this week. Four teams are sitting the week out on byes, and a few others are without their starting QBs as Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, and Jameis Winston could all be out this week. I’d prefer Mac over bottom-of-the-barrel options like PJ Walker, Mike White, Jordan Love, and fellow rookies Trevor Lawrence & Justin Fields this week. He doesn’t have a big ceiling in this matchup, but he should have a reasonable floor.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Carter dazzled in week 8, hauling in 9 receptions and finishing as the overall RB1 for the week. He’s clearly established himself as the lead back in this committee over Ty Johnson, and Mike White at QB has been a huge boost to his receiving production. White has targeted running backs on over 40% of his passes while Zach Wilson was below 20%. This week’s matchup isn’t an ideal one for Carter. The Colts rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game, and the Jets’ offense is expected to struggle with an implied total of just 18 points. Indy doesn’t give up a ton of receiving production to backs, allowing just 4 receptions and 33 yards per game to the position. With White at QB, the checkdowns are going to keep coming, so I do expect the Jets’ backs to out-pace those receiving averages the Colts have allowed. Carter just doesn’t possess the same ceiling this week that he did against the Bengals. He’s a low-end RB2 option in PPR leagues, and a little lower than that in half-PPR. If I were going to target Jets’ pass catchers in showdown contests, Carter, Jamison Crowder, and Elijah Moore would be my choices.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): The Panthers might get Christian McCaffrey back this week…or they might not get him back for two more weeks. It’s hard to say with any certainty at this point, but the Panthers did open his practice window to potentially return. If McCaffrey is ready to go this week, don’t play Hubbard. If he sits again, Hubbard should be in good position to post an RB2 week. Of the trio of rookie lead backs who don’t catch many passes (Hubbard/Elijah Mitchell/Khalil Herbert), Chuba has the most favorable matchup this week. The Patriots rank a middling 17^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 18^th-most RB points per game. They’re not an inviting matchup, but they aren’t as daunting as those faced by the other rookie backs. Keep an eye on the injury report and make sure CMC sits before locking in Chuba in your lineups.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Mitchell had a big game against the Bears last Sunday, rolling up over 130 yards and a touchdown, but the sledding will be a bit tougher this week. The Cardinals rank 9^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game. They’ve also probably seen enough film on Mitchell to know he’s kind of a one-trick pony. He doesn’t catch passes, and he hasn’t had much success running between the tackles. 13 of his 15 rushes of 10+ yards this year have come either off-tackle, or on the outside. The Bears allow the 2^nd-highest yards per rush average on those kinds of carries. The Cardinals allow the 18^th-highest average. Mitchell is still the lead back in an offense that wants to run the ball. He’s got a questionable tag with a rib injury, so keep an eye on his status, but if he plays, he should be a solid flex option with upside this week.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 9: @Pit.): The Bears have opened the practice window for David Montgomery to return from IR, so this may be your last opportunity to get Herbert into your lineups before he’s relegated to backup duty again. He’s proven to be an outstanding runner in his first few opportunities this year, but he seemed to hit a wall in the second half against the 49ers last Sunday. Khalil tallied just 8 scrimmage yards in the second half on 10 carries and 1 reception. The Steelers are an even better run defense than the 49ers, ranking 6^th in run defense DVOA, and allowing the 6^th-fewest RB points per game. If Montgomery is out again this week, Herbert is still a reasonable RB3 option, but know that it could be tough sledding for him against the Steelers.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 9: @Dal.): This is your weekly ‘Javonte Williams is going to touch the ball about a dozen times and may or may not post a useful fantasy stat-line with them’ update. Dallas has been solid against the run, ranking 11^th in run defense DVOA, and allowing the 7^th-fewest RB points per game. Dallas has given up just 4 running back TDs all year, and you’ll probably need a score to feel good about starting Javonte. He’s an RB3 option if you’re desperate.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Waddle had a down game against a tough Bills’ defense in week 8, but he should get back on track against the Texans on Sunday. After facing Taron Johnson last week, the Texans’ secondary will be a sight for sore eyes. Waddle has averaged just over 10 targets per game since Tua returned to the lineup, and the Texans are allowing the 13^th-most WR points per game. Waddle should pile up enough catches to post a strong PPR WR3 game.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Since returning from IR, Bateman has played more than 60% of the offensive snaps and seen 6 targets in both games he’s been active for. This week he gets to face a Minnesota defense allowing the 6^th-most WR points per game. I expect the Ravens to continue to get their 1^st round pick involved in this good matchup. The Ravens still don’t throw enough to make Bateman a truly safe play along with Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, but he should be a reasonable WR3/4 option this week in all formats.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. LV): Toney seems likely to play this week despite suffering yet another injury Monday night against the Chiefs. It also appears that Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay will return to action as well, so it remains to be seen just how big a target share Toney is going to get. I expect the Giants want him involved after his breakout games a few weeks ago, but his ceiling might not be as high this week against the Raiders. 58% of Toney’s yards on the season have come after the catch, and Vegas has allowed the 2^nd-fewest yards after catch in the league. Toney is still in play as a WR3/4 option, but I’d take a long look at your other available options before pulling the trigger.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): Smith remains an infuriating player if you have him on your fantasy rosters. He dominates usage in this passing game, still sitting at a 23% target share and nearly 40% air yard share for the season, but he just isn’t converting those things into fantasy points. For the season, he’s scored fewer points than Van Jefferson, Hunter Renfrow, and Kendrick Bourne. He’s much closer to a must-sit than a must-start at this point, but the usage keeps alive the hope of a tantalizing ceiling. The Chargers probably aren’t the team that he’ll reach it against. They’ve allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, and rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA. Smith is in the ‘only if you’re desperate’ category this week.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 9: vs. Chi.): Freiermuth faces a tough matchup on paper this week against a Chicago defense that has allowed the 2^nd-fewest tight end points per game, but his target volume keeps him in the TE streamer discussion this week. The rookie has been targeted 7 times in each game since JuJu Smith-Schuster went down for the season, and that volume should continue going forward. With TJ Hockenson and Gronk on a bye, Noah Fant on the covid list, you may be looking for a replacement this week. There are probably streaming options with higher upside than Freiermuth this week, but the Steelers’ TE should be a safe floor play who should clear 40 yards.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Fields finally posted the kind of game we’ve been waiting for from him last Sunday, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance this week against a talented Pittsburgh defense. His big day last week was a result of over 100 yards and a score running the ball, and so far, the Steelers have only allowed 1 quarterback to rush for more than 11 yards against them. Matt Nagy returns to the sideline this week, giving Fields another obstacle to overcome. I would view him as a very tail end QB2 option this week.

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Buf.): The Bills have only allowed 1 quarterback all season to post a top-12 finish against them, and I don’t like Lawrence’s chances to make it 2. In week 8, Lawrence saw his efficiency levels fall back to where they were in the first few weeks of the season despite facing a burnable Seattle defense. This week he takes on a Buffalo unit that ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA, has allowed the fewest QB points per game, and has forced 12 QB turnovers in their last 6 games, with at least one in every contest. They’ve been a defensive buzzsaw and are not a great spot to hope for a Lawrence bounce back after his down game last week. Garbage time may give Lawrence more upside this week than Mac Jones, but his floor is lower. I’d keep the rookie parked on my bench.

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): In case you missed the news, Tyrod Taylor will be back from IR and starting at QB for the Texans this week. Across his 6 starts, Mills faced an absolute gauntlet of defenses. The Colts were the only team he started against that doesn’t rank in the top-12 in the league at limiting QB points, and now he goes back to the bench as the Texans prepare to face a Miami team that allows the 3^rd-most points to the position. Sometimes the world just isn’t fair.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): Like everyone else, I too was shocked that the Eagles phased Gainwell out of their offense against the Lions last weekend. I expected a lot of Boston Scott and Gainwell in the backfield with Miles Sanders sidelined, but the Eagles opted to use Jordan Howard as the 2^nd RB instead of the rookie. The final stat sheet actually shows Gainwell led the backfield in touches, but almost all of his opportunities came in the 4^th quarter after the other two backs had each found the end zone twice. I don’t expect Gainwell to only have 1 touch through the first 3 quarters again this week, but I do expect the Eagles to have a similar gameplan against a Chargers’ defense allowing the most RB rushing yards per game. It clearly worked well last week, and I expect a lot of Boston Scott and Jordan Howard again this week. Gainwell may play a bit more, but I’d shy away from using him in any fantasy lineups this week.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 9: @Car.): The Patriots backfield after Damien Harris continues to be a conundrum to sort out each week. Even if Stevenson works as the team RB2 this week, which is far from a certainty, he’s going to see limited opportunity against a defense allowing the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 9: @Phi.): Rountree may get a bit more run this week against a defense that has allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game thanks to an injury to Justin Jackson, but it’s hard to know exactly how big that role will be behind Austin Ekeler. He’s gotten additional run in games the Chargers have won easily, so if you think they run away with this game, Rountree may have some desperation flex-appeal in non-PPR leagues. I wouldn’t count on him though.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. Cle.): Evans should return from injury this week, but the Browns allow the 9^th-fewest RB receptions per game, and we’ve seen Evans be productive exactly 1 time in the 5 games where he saw snaps.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 9: @Cin.): With Nick Chubb back on the field last week, Felton totaled just 1 rushing attempt and 1 target. He’s not worth a roster spot in season-long leagues.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Sermon hasn’t played an offensive snap since week 5…when he played all of 2 offensive snaps. Nothing to see here.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 9: @SF): Moore could move into a more prominent role this week with AJ Green on the Covid list, but he’ll have to be utilized differently to cash in on the opportunity. The majority of Moore’s work this season has come on short passes behind the line of scrimmage or just a few yards downfield, and the 49ers have allowed the 3^rd-fewest yards after catch in the league this year. Moore could pile up a bunch of short catches to help in PPR formats, but I don’t see him posting a quality fantasy line for you this week.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Marshall has a good chance to return to action this week as he practiced in full on Wednesday, but he’ll likely be doing so with PJ Walker at quarterback, and Marshall averaged just 2.7 catches and 23 yards per game when things were good in this passing game the first 4 weeks of the season. I can’t see him putting up a productive game his first week back. If you get him into any lineups, you’re just crossing your fingers that he scores a TD.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 9: @Cin.): There is a small amount of upside this week for Schwartz with Odell Beckham Jr. essentially booted off the team. In the first two games of the season with OBJ sidelined with injury, Schwartz played right around 50% of the offensive snaps and saw a handful of deep targets. The concern here is that Schwartz still may find himself 4^th on the WR depth chart this week if Donovan Peoples-Jones is able to return from injury. In week 1, Rashard Higgins played just 4 offensive snaps, but he’s been a fixture in 3-WR sets since, and Schwartz isn’t going to play much over Jarvis Landry or Peoples-Jones. If DPJ sits, Schwartz has some dart throw upside in the deepest of leagues and DFS tournaments, but otherwise he should be avoided.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 9: @Phi.): Palmer scored his first career TD last week, but he also played the fewest snaps he’s seen since week 4. Don’t be fooled by the touchdown. There’s no change here for Palmer. He remains waiver fodder.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Tremble is playing enough to get mentioned every week but isn’t seeing enough usage to warrant lineup consideration. He’s seen 12 targets come his way over the last 4 games but hasn’t topped 20 receiving yards in any game and found the end zone just once. There isn’t any reason to expect that to change against a New England defense that’s allowing the 3^rd-fewest TE points per game.

Rookies on Bye in week 9: RB Jaret Patterson, WAS, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, WR Dyami Brown, WAS, WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Moore’s playing time in week 8 was less than encouraging (on the field for just 36% of the offensive snaps in a game Corey Davis missed), but what he did with his playing time is worth some attention. The rookie had his best game of the season, catching all 6 of his targets for 67 yards, and throwing in a 4-yard rush for good measure. I’d be surprised if his playing time doesn’t tick up a bit this week, and the Colts have struggled to defend undersized speed receivers who play on the outside. Brandin Cooks posted 9-89 against them. Tyler Lockett put up 4-100-2. Marquise Brown posted 9-125-2. Moore will likely need Mike White to take a few deep shots to cash in this week the way those guys have against the Colts, but the opportunity is there for Moore to improve on what he did a week ago.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): The return of Tyrod Taylor to the lineup should open up the deeper passing game this week, and the Dolphins allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game and have allowed the 2^nd-most air yards on completed passes this year. Taylor’s return and the matchup are certainly more beneficial for WR1 Brandin Cooks than for Nico, but there is plenty of DFS upside for Collins in a game that has some shootout potential. Collins costs just $3,600 on DraftKings.

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 9: @Mia.): I list Jordan here more as a guy to stash in deeper leagues than to start this week. He was active for the first time all season in week 8 thanks to Pharaoh Brown being out with injury, and he made the most of the opportunity with a 3-41-1 line on 4 targets. The Texans’ season is going nowhere fast, and at some point, it will behoove them to see what they have in the youngster after he caught for 72 yards and nearly a touchdown per game at Miami last year. Jordan does have sneaky DFS appeal this week if Brown misses another game. The Dolphins rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA, and Jordan costs the minimum on DraftKings.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The last two weeks have made us rethink everything we thought we knew about the NFL this season, but here’s hoping things get back to normal this week. Week 8 saw unheralded QBs Mike White, Cooper Rush and Trevor Siemian lead their teams to huge upset wins. Week 9 saw the Bills fall to the Jaguars, the Cowboys throttled by Denver, and the Rams look lost against the Derrick Henry-less Titans. It was an eventful week for the rookies too. Ja’Marr Chase posted the worst game of his rookie campaign and Kyle Pitts underwhelmed again, but DeVonta Smith and Elijah Moore had the kind of games we’ve been waiting for from them. Jaylen Waddle topped 80 yards for the 2^nd time this year, and Javonte Williams ran for over 100 for the first time. Hopefully there are more rookie firsts in store for us this weekend, but I’m here still here to walk you through what to expect from the rookies this weekend even if there aren’t. 

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game Let’s dive into week 10…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. Det.): As usual, you don’t need me to tell you to start Harris this week, but this is an especially good spot for the rookie. Detroit has allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game and rank 25^th in Football Outsiders run defense DVOA stat. He should be an automatic chalk play in DFS cash games, and not a bad tournament option either. Just be aware that he’s going to be in a LOT of lineups. We’ve seen some baffling performances by clear chalk picks in recent weeks, but Najee is a very strong bet to post a top-12 performance this week, with an RB1 overall ceiling.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 10: vs. Bal.): Waddle has very quietly hauled in the 6^th-most receptions in the league so far. He’s had 8+ targets come his way in each of the last 4 games and posted 15+ PPR points in 3 of them. The Ravens are a tough matchup, allowing the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. Slot corner Tavon Young has allowed just a 58.0 passer rating on throws into his coverage. I still expect Waddle’s volume to rule the day. He’s going to get enough work to make up for it. Brissett starting again lowers his overall ceiling, but Waddle is a safe WR3 in PPR formats this week.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 10: @Dal.): Pitts has topped at least 50 receiving yards in 5 of his last 7 games and gets to face a Dallas defense allowing the 12^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Trevon Diggs cover the rookie a fair amount, but Diggs has been prone to giving up big plays, allowing 15.8 yards per completion into his coverage. We already know Pitts can produce big plays, averaging nearly 20 yards per catch over the last 3 weeks. Pitts remains a top-6 tight end option in this one.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. Det.): Freiermuth’s run of recent success continued in week 9. He’s now been targeted at least 6 times and caught for over 40 yards in 3 straight games, topping 14 fantasy points in each of the last two, and now gets to face a Detroit defense that ranks 29^th in pass defense DVOA. The Lions have only allowed the 11^th-fewest TE points per game but opposing offenses have been able to pick them apart wherever they choose to, and the Steelers are going to continue to pepper Freiermuth with targets. George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert all broke 70 receiving yards against this defense. With Chase Claypool potentially sidelined, the Steelers may have to rely on the rookie tight end even more. He’s a top-10 tight end play this week, and a bargain for main slate DFS contests, where top options like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Mike Gesicki, George Kittle and Darren Waller are not available.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 10: @Ind.): The Jaguars stunned the football world with a victory over the Bills last weekend, but it was a second straight clunker of a fantasy game for Lawrence, and the second straight game where the Jaguars failed to score 10 points as a team. This week looks much more promising for the #1 overall pick. James Robinson should be back in action, taking some of the offensive burden off the quarterback, and he gets to face a Colts’ defense that has allowed the 3^rd-most points per game to QBs and ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA. I like Trevor’s chances of accounting for multiple TDs in this game and finishing as a fringe QB1.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 10: vs. Phi.): It was great to see Williams top 100 rushing yards for the first time in his burgeoning career last Sunday, but don’t be fooled into thinking the season-high 17 carries were a sign of things to come for him. Melvin Gordon still carried the ball 21 times in a game that the Broncos controlled throughout. This is still a full-on timeshare, but it’s a full-on timeshare facing a favorable matchup. The Eagles have allowed the 5^th-most RB points per game, and Williams has consistently been the more efficient back of the duo. Philly’s recent shift to a run-heavy game plan could put a dent in the overall number of plays run in this one, so Williams might not have quite the same ceiling in this one that he would’ve a few weeks ago, but he should finish as a top-24 back in week 10.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 10: vs. LAR): Week 9 was at least a little concerning if you have Mitchell on your roster after he saw his 2^nd-lowest touch total of the season. A lot of that can be chalked up to game script. JaMycal Hasty was operating as the 3^rd-down back, and the 49ers were in catch-up mode for most of the game. The problem is that the 49ers could find themselves in a similar boat on Monday night. The Rams are only favored by 4 but will be looking for a get-right game after stumbling against the Titans. The 49ers also will likely activate Jeff Wilson Jr. for the first time this season, who could siphon playing time from the rookie. For now, I’m operating under the assumption that Mitchell will continue to be the lead back and see him as a low-end RB2 option against a solid Rams’ defense that adds Von Miller into the mix this week. The Rams have had more struggles with receiving backs (D’Andre Swift, Gio Bernard) than pure runners.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): The matchup here isn’t great, but Carter’s usage has been consistent, and he gets checkdown hero Mike White back under center. The Bills don’t allow much RB receiving production, giving up the fewest RB receptions and 4^th-fewest RB receiving yards in the league, but the ball is still going to find its way to Carter. He’s seen 15+ touches in each of the last 3 weeks and should see similar usage here. The ceiling is low, but Carter should be able to return an RB3-worthy performance in PPR formats.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Bateman hasn’t played in a game with Sammy Watkins active yet, but it’s hard to imagine the 1^st-round rookie will take a major backseat to the veteran in Watkins’ first game back. Bateman has played more than 60% of the offensive snaps in each game he’s been active for and seen at least 6 targets in each. I expect another 6+ targets tonight. Bateman is an upside WR3 play this week against the Dolphins, who allow the 3^rd-most WR points per game. Don’t let Watkins scare you off firing him up if you were considering starting him when you expected Sammy to sit.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 10: @Den.): Here’s hoping last Sunday was a sign that Smith and Jalen Hurts are finally on the same page, but I’m not ready yet to declare that they definitely are. Smith has dominated air yards in this passing game all season, but the Eagles’ recent recommitment to the running game has lowered his margin for error. He’s seen 3 of his 4 lowest target totals of the season in the last 4 games and totaled just 107 receiving yards in the 3 games prior to his 5-116-1 breakout last week. The Broncos allow the 14^th-fewest WR points per game. Smith is back to being a boom-or-bust WR3 this week.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Last week was the breakout performance we’ve been waiting for from Moore, with 2 touchdowns, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance. Corey Davis should return to the lineup, and the Jets face a Buffalo defense that allows the fewest WR points per game. With Mike White back under center, there’s still a chance at a floor week for Moore, but that likely means closer to 40 yards than the 60+ we’ve seen the last couple weeks. He’s in play as a WR4 in deeper PPR leagues, but I’d probably lean away from him in most leagues.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Jones faces a Cleveland defense that has allowed the 11^th-most QB points per game, but this defensive unit has been much better than that number implies. They’ve been shredded a few times this season, by star quarterbacks Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Patrick Mahomes. In their other 6 games, they’ve allowed just 11.2 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. No QB they’ve faced in the last 3 weeks has reached 15. I’d be hesitant to play Mac anywhere this week unless you have to in a superflex or 2-QB league.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Stevenson is fighting to get himself cleared from the concussion protocol this week, as is teammate Damien Harris. As of now, I would guess that neither guy gets cleared, but Stevenson should function as the lead back if he gets cleared and Harris doesn’t. Even in that case, he’s no more than a fringe option for deeper leagues. The Browns rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 9^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 10: @NE): Felton was placed on the Browns’ Covid-reserve list this week along with Nick Chubb, but since both players are vaccinated there is a chance that one or both could get cleared in time for this game. If Felton gets cleared and Chubb doesn’t, the rookie will play a larger role than usual in this offense, but it still won’t be one worthy of starting in your lineups. In the one game this season where Chubb and Kareem Hunt were both inactive, Felton played a season-high 22 offensive snaps, but he handled just 2 rushing attempts and 3 targets in that game. There’s a glimmer of hope for Felton as the Patriots allow the 3^rd-most RB receiving yards per game and he’s a pass catching specialist, but the upside isn’t great enough to chase here.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 10: @Den.): Gainwell got into the end zone last weekend, but he was on the field for just 11 offensive snaps and handled only 2 offensive touches. He’s a non-factor in this offense right now, and you can’t start him until that changes.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 10: @Ari.): The return of Christian McCaffrey sends Hubbard back to being nothing more than a handcuff with little to no standalone value. Chuba played just 10 snaps in week 9, even with McCaffrey playing less than half of the offensive plays. Ameer Abdullah worked as the RB2 ahead of Hubbard. As McCaffrey’s workload gets ramped back up in the coming weeks, Hubbard will have even less of a chance to play a fantasy relevant role.

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Jamaal Williams still isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, and Jefferson posted 12.9 PPR points in week 8 with Williams sidelined, but there is no reason to count on a repeat performance here. The bulk of Jefferson’s points came on a 4^th quarter garbage time drive that he capped with a touchdown. Through the first 3 quarters, D’Andre Swift handled 17 of Detroit’s 22 running back touches, and the leftover touches were split between Jefferson and Godwin Igwebuike. You don’t need me to tell you that spitting less than 25% of the backfield touches against a team allowing the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game isn’t an ideal situation to start a running back.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 10: @Pit.): ARSB is consistently playing right around 70% of Detroit’s offensive snaps, but it isn’t translating to a ton of fantasy production. He’s fine if you’re looking for 8-10 PPR points without upside for a lot more, but most of us should be looking for a higher ceiling. The Steelers have allowed double-digit PPR games to several slot WRs this year - Cole Beasley, Randall Cobb, Hunter Renfrow, and Tyler Boyd – but St. Brown will likely need to find the end zone to make him a worthwhile start. He’s yet to do that all season.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): It’s a new week, but it’s the same story for Rondale, who just isn’t seeing deep enough targets to put up fantasy points. He’s topped 40 scrimmage yards just once since his breakout game in week 2. The Panthers have allowed the 5^th-fewest yards after catch this season, making this an unlikely spot for a surprise big performance.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 10: @NE): Schwartz did see a jump in playing time in week 9 with Odell Beckham Jr. given the boot. He played more than 50% of the offensive snaps but garnered just one target that he hauled in for 15 yards last week. The Browns are likely to use him as a situational deep threat the rest of the way, but the Patriots aren’t especially vulnerable to the deep ball, allowing just 3 completions of 40+ yards this season.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 10: @Ari.): Marshall returned from a two-week absence to just a 37% snap share and one target despite the Panthers trailing for the majority of the game and needing to throw. Carolina also lost QB Sam Darold for the next 4+ weeks. While that could be a good thing for the Panthers’ passing game given Darnold’s struggles, the biggest beneficiaries are likely to be DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. Backup QB PJ Walker has thrown about 60% of his career pass attempts to those two receivers (42 of 71), and I expect it to be Walker under center this week as Cam gets up to speed. Keep Marshall sidelined until his production gives us a reason not to.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 10: @GB): I only mention Eskridge this week because he’s officially returned to practice after missing half the season due to a concussion suffered in week 1. Eskridge was being used as part-time gadget player before getting hurt in week 1, but his 2^nd round draft capital speaks to grander plans that the Seahawks may have for him. It’s worth monitoring how the Seahawks utilize him against the Packers if he’s able to return to action.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 10: @Ari.): I keep waiting for the week where Tremble turns his playing time into production, but he’s now played 45% or more of the offensive snaps in 4 straight games and hasn’t reached even 20 yards in any of them. He remains waiver fodder.

Rookies on bye in week 10: QB Justin Fields, CHI, QB Davis Mills, HOU, RB Khalil Herbert, CHI, RB Chris Evans, CIN, WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, WR Kadarius Toney, NYG, WR Nico Collins, HOU, TE Brevin Jordan, HOU

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. TB): It’s easy to forget what a team coming off a bye did in their last game, but it was Patterson that led Washington in rushing attempts and rushing yards in week 8 against Denver, finishing with 11 carries for 46 yards. It was clear Washington was trying to limit Antonio Gibson’s snaps headed into the bye week, but it’s not clear if the bye week fixed the problem for Gibson. His practice schedule this week has mirrored what he was doing in the weeks prior to the bye, and it’s entirely possible Washington continues to severely limit his playing time coming out of it. Washington is sitting at 2-6 and is very likely to fall to 2-7 this week. It’s only a matter of time before they shut Gibson down for the season if his shin isn’t improving. Patterson is unlikely to have much success running against the stout Bucs front this week, but if he leads the backfield in carries again you probably won’t be able to get him for free for much longer in deep leagues. If you’re desperate for RB help down the stretch, Patterson is a worthwhile speculative add.

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 10: @LAC): None of us like having to talk about what’s going on with Dalvin Cook right now, but there’s no avoiding the fact that it could affect his availability in the second half of the season. As of right now he’s eligible to play, but there’s no way to be certain that won’t change. Obviously, Alexander Mattison would be the biggest beneficiary on the football field if Dalvin were to miss time, but Nwangwu would start finding his way onto the field as well. The rookie is a special teams standout who returned a kick for a score last week. With Ameer Abdullah out of the way, Nwangwu would be the clear RB2 on this team behind Mattison if Dalvin does become ineligible. He’s a speculative add for deep dynasty leagues, especially those that give points for return yards.

WR Jaelon Darden, TB (Wk. 10: @Was.): The Bucs may be without both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown this week in a matchup against the defense allowing the 2^nd-most WR points per game. Darden likely would see a healthy number of slot snaps playing behind Mike Evans and Tyler Johnson and has some PPR upside in deep leagues. Darden is a guy the Bucs have tried to get the ball to when he’s on the field. He’s seen 5 targets and 1 rushing attempt on just 25 snaps. The floor here is a goose egg, but don’t be surprised if Darden puts up 8-10 PPR points this week.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. TB): Brown is only in play in DFS contests this week, but he should be in line for a lot of playing time in a game where game script should keep the Football Team throwing with Tampa favored by nearly 10 points. Brown missed week 5 with injury, and then returned to an 80% snap share and 6 targets in week 6 against Kansas City. The Bucs allow the 11^th-most WR points per game and have allowed the 9^th-most completions of 20+ yards in the league. Assuming he’s able to play, Dyami has reasonable upside and costs just $200 in DraftKings showdown contests for this game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

7 of the Top 12 QBs

Quarterback continues to be a volatile position in fantasy football. This certainly has not been the case in years past, but this week alone, 7 of the top 12 QBs by fantasy points are not owned in the Drinkfive league. Part of the issue is that many top guys were out with injury, bye weeks, or...other issues. Another problem is that many top guys under performed - Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes combined for fewer points than Josh Johnson. Of course, credit must go to Josh Johnson, who put up big numbers in the (garbage) time he had vs the Colts on Thursday night. Colt McCoy and Trevor Siemian also get big kudos for turning in good performances in their first starts of the season, finishing as the QB11 and QB12 respectively. Overall, the 7 QBs that are unowned in the top 12 represent just 38% average ownership (in Fleaflicker leagues) - that number also is heavily weighted by Matt Ryan’s 81% ownership rate - he’s a free agent in our league right now. So, the lesson here is that volatility can happen in any fantasy football market, including at the traditionally stable quarterback position. If you planned on streaming QBs this year and didn’t invest draft capital in a QB, you’re definitely benefiting from that decision now.

31.4 Fantasy Point Average for the Top 4 RBs

I’ve been pointing out the lack of production from the top of the running back position over the last few weeks, and especially how there’s tons of production from wide receivers. This week was the opposite of that - maybe they got my message? Anyways, we saw huge performances from James Conner (37.8), Jonathan Taylor (33), Nick Chubb (29.3), and Joe Mixon (25.5). This was better than any wide receiver for the week so far. In fact, the best wide receiver owned in 90% or more of Fleaflicker leagues is Keenan Allen, who finished as the 15th best flex player this week (RB/WR/TE). The top 4 RBs on the week combined for 9 touchdowns, 646 total yards, and averaged nearly 8 yards per touch. Quite the week from all 4 guys, all of whom put up their best fantasy game of the year. Final note - even after that huge week, Jonathan Taylor remains the RB2. Derrick Henry still has both more points and more rushing yards than Taylor.

3 WRs with 2 TDs

It was a down week for wide receivers for sure. Only 3 of them managed to find the end zone twice, and stop me if you’ve heard these names on this column before (you haven’t). Elijah Moore, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Malik Turner all found the end zone twice this week, and none of them managed to go over 100 yards receiving. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance from any of those three - they are owned in an average of 16% of Fleaflicker leagues. Most of that ownership is probably Elijah Moore in dynasty leagues. Only 4 wide receivers did reach the century mark for receiving yards - the same number of RBs who reached that number of rushing yards. This is the first week where the RBs were able to pace the WRs when it came to games over 100 yards - usually it’s close to a 2:1 ratio in favor of the wideouts. 

17.1 Fantasy Points

George Kittle returned to the lineup on Sunday, giving the TE position a much needed boost. In fact, we saw the top 3 drafted tight ends finish 1-2-3 so far on the week. George Kittle was the top finisher, scoring a touchdown and gaining over 100 yards, leading all tight ends in week 9. Travis Kelce was right behind him, and Darren Waller made the most out of his 11 targets, which led all tight ends this week. This is the first time since week 1 of this season that all 3 guys have finished in the top 10 scorers. Of course, after them, 4 of the next 5 TEs were owned in an average of less than 4% of Fleaflicker leagues. This just goes to show that all it takes to be a decent fantasy tight end is that you find the end zone. In fact, 8 of the top 10 TEs did find the end zone, and the #10 guy who didn’t, Jared Cook,  at least was able to get a few points from a 2-point conversion

10 D/STs over 10 points

10 points is a great benchmark for your defense/special teams slot. If you can get 10 or more points, you should definitely be happy. This week, there were plenty of opportunities for you to land a D/ST that could do that for you, but only if you chose wisely. The top team this week were the New England Patriots, the team that consistently just drinks Sam Darnold’s milkshake. The Pats put up 20 points with 3 picks (one of them a pick-six), a sack, and only 6 points allowed. Then it gets interesting. If you had the guts to pick against some of the top offenses in the league, then you stood a great chance of doing well. The Browns (vs CIN), Jaguars (vs BUF), and the Titans (@ LAR) all were able to score at least 16 fantasy points for you. Those three D/STs combined for 6 interceptions, 14 sacks, 2 defensive TDs, 2 fumble recoveries, and an average of just 13 points allowed. One other crazy thing about this week’s D/ST stats - the Texans and Dolphins played against each other and both teams scored at least 15 points against the opposing offense. Truly, that was a game that should have been played on Thursday night.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

36.24 Fantasy Points

Patrick Mahomes put up his highest fantasy total in over a year (Week 8 of last season). It looked like the Chiefs offense got back on track, putting up 41 points and really taking it to the Raiders, the team that he really loves to play against. Going into this game, he already had more passing yards and passing TDs against the Raiders than any other team in the league (and it's only the first time they play this this year). This week, Mahomes was the top fantasy player in the league, putting up 406 yards and throwing 5 TDs, good for 36.24 points. This was his 3rd game with 400+ yards and 5+ touchdowns in his career, now tied for the all time lead for games with those stats with Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, and Joe Montana. That’s some impressive company.

8 Players with at Least 20 Carries

As the season moves on, the balance of run to pass always seems to shift to the run. Combine that with injuries and less depth, leading to fewer players to split carries, resulting in the most players getting 20+ carries all season. We had 8 players with at least 20 carries this week, and 11 of them with at least 15 carries. Having an RB who receives such a large cut of the carries on a single team is extremely valuable in fantasy football. Three players got 26+ carries: D’Andre Swift, Elijah Mitchell, and Najee Harris. Unfortunately, none of them found the end zone, keeping all of them from really having a big fantasy day.

9 D/ST With 10+ Points

It was a week for defenses to shine through. Offenses struggled - only two QBs had 3+ TDs, and only 2 QBs had 300+ passing yards. This week would have been even more underwhelming if not for Patrick Mahomes, but I digress. The defenses that scored at least double digit points are owned in 61% of Fleaflicker leagues - an ownership rate that actually isn’t that bad when you consider the top 6 only average out to 39% ownership. None of the teams in this top 9 gave up more than 17 points, so they earned their points the hard way. This, like most weeks, shows that D/ST is a position to go ahead and stream on a weekly basis unless you have one of the very top teams, and still their matchup is going to dictate if you want to start them or not.

33 Carries 

To elaborate on the rushing attempts mentioned earlier, it’s worth mentioning that D’Andre Swift had 33 carries for the Lions in Pittsburgh on Sunday in what we can all agree was the least inspiring end to a football game in quite a while. Swift’s 33 carries is the second highest total for any player in the NFL this year. In fact, he’s the only one not named Derrick Henry (33, 35) who has gone over 30 carries in a single game this season. Swift also more than doubled up his previous career high water mark, which he also coincidentally received in week 10 last year. Sunday also saw Swift run for 130 rush yards, another career high mark. Swift is on pace for almost 800 rushing yards this year, which would surprisingly be the most on the Lions since Joique Bell in 2014. The Lions’ last 1000 yard rusher came in the form of Reggie Bush (1006) in 2013, who had done it for the first time in 9 years. It’s really been downhill since Barry Sanders put up 10 straight 1000 yard seasons, 7 of those being over 1400 yards.

158.3 QB Rating

Two backup QBs took the field on Sunday and posted perfect QB ratings, but they were in very different situations. First off was Brian Hoyer, the man who has started at QB for 7 different teams. Hoyer came in during garbage time against the Browns and went a cool 3/3 for 85 yards and a TD while leading the Patriots on a quick 95 yard drive late in the 4th quarter to help pad everyone’s stats. Joe Flacco also saw action for the Jets, and apparently it was so refreshing to see him in there over Mike White that he might earn the start this week. Flacco also went 3/3, this time for just 47 yards and also had a TD. The best actual starting QB rating this week? Mac Jones and his 142.1 on the way to the Patriots’ 4th win in a row. The Pats are now 6-4, in the 6-seed for the playoffs and Jones is looking like the best rookie QB this year, though his fantasy numbers leave a lot to be desired - he has just one game over 20 points all season.