Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

The last two weeks have gone just how I like it. My picks have won in blowout fashion and given me supreme confidence in my picking abilities. After the first quarter Houston was ahead 2-0 and I had to double take that I wasn't seeing the MLB playoff scores, but then Arizona scored 17 in the 2nd and never looked back.

This week's pick should be another slam dunk. I was considering a few different teams I like this week but when I heard the Jets were trading for Joe Flacco, I knew my choice was made. The Cincinnati Bengals will wipe the floor with Jets starting QB Mike White. Maybe there could be a slight let down after the beating Cincinnati put on the Ravens last week, but the talent gap is too large to lose to a guy getting his first start. Burrow and Chase have been probably the most exciting WR/QB duo going this season. I expect an easy Bengals win and cover of the 10.5 point spread and seeing that I am writing this from fabulous Las Vegas, I will be putting my money where my mouth is.

Cheers! Drink Five!

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

37 Pass Completions

Jets QB Mike White set an NFL record with 37 pass completions in his very first start, but the fun numbers from the game did not stop there. White set the second-highest yardage total in a first start with 406, which was good for the most yardage so far in Week 8. White posted the highest yardage total for a Jets QB since Vinny Testaverde in 2000. White finished the Week as the QB2 in fantasy, the best of the QBs who are not owned in many leagues in a week dominated by guys like that. 5 of the top 10 QBs this week, so far, are not rostered on any team in the drinkfive.com league and have an average ownership rate of just under 30% in Fleaflicker leagues. White has certainly earned himself a chance to start another week or two, and may even find himself as the permanent starter if he continues to play at a high level like this. It’s really a tough break for all of us who said “Mike White? Who the hell is that?” and proceeded to pick the Bengals in our survivor pools.

331 Yards Per Game

Tom Brady, at age 44, is currently dominating in many statistical passing categories. He currently leads the league in completions, pass attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. He is the QB1 on the season with 206.9 total fantasy points in just 8 games. Only Josh Allen has a higher PPG average than Brady, but sits as the QB2 due to bye weeks. Allen isn’t really putting up the passing numbers that Brady is either, with Allen’s fantasy points bolstered by 269 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs. But, back to Brady, who put up another ho-hum performance yesterday of 375 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. Heck, he even threw a touchdown to the wrong team yesterday, which is the only thing that keeps him from passing the aforementioned Mike White as the QB2 for the week. Brady’s huge offensive output has kept 3 of his WRs as regular starts, when healthy. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown are all in the top 22 WRs by total fantasy points. If you look at them on a points per game basis, they are all ranked in the top 19.

137 Rush Yards

Elijah Mitchell is the only running back so far in Week 8 to have surpassed the 100 rushing yard mark. In an era where the traditional running back role seems to be disappearing week by week – and we lost our #1 boy this week, perhaps for the season – it’s increasingly rare to find someone top 100 yards rushing. This doesn’t mean that RBs are necessarily going away, they just get their points in a variety of ways. This week, 23 RBs had at least 10 points or more, so there’s plenty of good players out there still, but it’s so clear that this is a passing league now. 8 wide receivers passed the century mark on Sunday (no RBs or TEs joined them with 100+ receiving yards). Speaking of passers – the only other player with 100+ rushing yards this week is Justin Fields, who had 103 yards in a losing effort against Mitchell’s 49ers. Perhaps it’s fitting that the last bastion of 100-yard rushers is Soldier Field, for this week anyway.

4 WRs with 10+ Receptions

Illustrating my point about this being a passing-dominated league, which I suppose I seem to make at least a couple of times per year, is the fact that this week had the most players with 10+ catches of any this year. This week, we saw Tyler Lockett, Cole Beasley, A.J. Brown, and Michael Pittman all catch at least 4 passes. All but Pittman went over 100 yards as well, but Pittman managed to find the end zone twice, so we’ll still give him an A+ for his fantasy day. There were 3 weeks with 3 WRs at 10+ receptions, and 3 weeks with just 1 WR with 10+ receptions. Even with the 17^th game added this season, the season-long receptions record, set by Michael Thomas in 2019, seems perfectly safe. Currently, Cooper Kupp leads the league in receptions and is only on pace for about 133 receptions on the year, good for just 5^th on the all-time list. Also, an honorable mention must go to T.J. Hockenson, the only non-WR to crack the 10 receptions mark this week. In fact, kudos to Hockenson, who has currently the TE1 on the week without even finding the end zone.

38.7 Receiving Yards Per Game

Odell Beckham Jr. has really fallen from the heights of the top WRs in the league. With just 38.7 yards per game, he is a long way from his 80.3 career average (it was 83.3 going into this season). In Odell’s rookie year, he led the league with 108.8 yards per game, and he posted double-digit TDs in each of his first 3 seasons. He now has just a 50% catch rate on the year (61% going into the season). He posted a season-low 1.1 fantasy points this week, his 4^th game of the year where he is below just 5 points. Odell is not alone, however. Allen Robinson has had an equally disappointing fantasy season. Since week 1, he has not topped 4 receptions in a game, and in 2021, he has not broken into double-digit fantasy points once. He is at less than half his yards per game, 33.9, than he had in his first 3 seasons in Chicago, 70.0. Robinson is the WR63 for the season, a truly terrible mark for someone who has not missed a game this year.

Here's a sneak peek of tonight's Fantasy Finish Line Podcast with Dave and I. We'll discuss news, all the rapid changes in rosters in the league, and random stuff that comes up along the way. Make sure to tune in at 9pm on YouTube.

• Where do we start? First off, there’s the covid news. Aaron Rodgers tested positive, and he’s out for Week 9’s game against the Chiefs. The Packers 3rd string QB is out too, and it’s certainly possible that Jordan Love can test positive before Sunday as well. Blake Bortles was signed earlier today and spent training camp with the Packers, so he’ll slot in if everything goes haywire for the Packers. Davante Adams was placed on the covid list on 10/25 so should be cleared to return this week. Adams and Jones remain a must start against a poor Chiefs defense. Allen Lazard has been taken off the covid list, so that’s a good sign for Adams being available on Sunday.

• Henry Ruggs….lots has been said about him, but fantasy wise - Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow should see a bit more usage, but I expect Zay Jones to be the one to get the deep targets. Ruggs was in on 65-80% of snaps, but only saw about 5 targets per game. Renfrow should see an increase in snaps as he was more of a 55-65% guy and could see a bump to his 7 targets per game.

• Saquon Barkley is also on the covid list, so even if his ankle is rehabbed, he won’t be returning this week. The Giants are on bye the following week. Also with the Giants, Kenny Golladay returned to practice today, and Sterling Shepard looks like he’ll be out at least through the bye next week. The WR group for the Giants continues to be a revolving door, and your decision on who to start will likely go right up to game time on Sunday.

• Dak Prescott is back at practice this week, it would appear that the Cooper Rush era will be put on hold for now. Michael Gallup has been designated to return from IR, but still has not been active.

• Calvin Ridley stepped away from the Falcons indefinitely, and abruptly, on Sunday morning. It’s always important to watch those inactives! The biggest beneficiary of this will probably be Russell Gage, with Kyle Pitts now being the primary target in the offense. I expect Gage’s snap count to go way up, and his zero targets last week to be a fluke. 

• Odell Beckham Jr. appears to be on the way out in Cleveland. They did not find a trade partner for him, so, considering the team asked him not to come in, he will likely be put on waivers and then cut if nobody claims him. Plenty of teams would probably take a chance on him, with the Saints high on that list, but it seems like his days in Cleveland are done. He’s averaging less than 6 targets per game, and playing less than 70% of snaps. His presence won’t be missed. Jarvis Landry will continue to be the only weekly start catching passes for the run-heavy Browns.

• Christian McCaffrey has been designated to return from IR, right on schedule with his initially reported timeline. This doesn’t need to officially happen until Saturday in order to play on Sunday, so keep an eye on the news. As usual, McCaffrey should be in your starting lineup if he’s playing.

• DeAndre Hopkins is not practicing this week. He only played in 15 snaps last Thursday night, apparently on some of those he snuck in and wasn’t supposed to be on the field. He’s one of the few players that can perform well if he does not practice all week, so just keep an eye on his status on Sunday - he does play a late afternoon game. He needs to be in your lineup if he’s playing. Kyler Murray also did not practice today, but he should be good to go this week after injuring his ankle late in the game last Thursday night.

• Is there such a thing as WR burnout? Michael Thomas led the league in receptions in 2018 and 2019, with a record-breaking 149 catches in ‘19. Since then he’s played in just 7 games and has announced that he won’t be returning in 2021. He’s still under contract for 2022 and will be 29 at that time. Expect the Saints to make a play for Odell Beckham once he is finally cut, or any other free agent WR for that matter.

• Derrick Henry suffered a (fantasy) season ending injury on Sunday and is supposed to be out for 6-10 weeks. An extremely optimistic outlook might have him back in time for the fantasy playoffs, but I find that to be unlikely at best. If you have the luxury of a free IR spot, then definitely use it. Otherwise I think it’s safe to drop him and let someone else waste a roster spot on him in the hopes he returns in Week 16 or 17 of the NFL season. If the Titans are in the playoffs at that time, they would be smart to just hold him until the playoffs start. If they are eliminated, then there’s no reason to bring him back. Jeremy McNichols stands to see a big increase in carries, and the passing game will probably also see a boost for the Titans. It remains to be seen how the Titans want to use Adrian Peterson, and how much use he actually gets.

• Jameis Winston tore his ACL in the Saints win against the Bucs and is out for the rest of the season, and probably out of New Orleans, practically speaking. For now, we’ll see a combination of Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian under center for the Saints. This doesn’t affect the Saints fantasy players much because nobody was doing anything other than Kamara anyways! (True - Marquez Callaway has been a flex play from weeks 3-5 but that’s about it, only putting up 3 fantasy points in each of the last two matchups).