Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Through 3 weeks we are 6-3 on the official drinkfive picks!  Insert the “Its not much but its honest work” meme.  We are turning a small profit and I am looking forward to building on it in week 4! Underdogs and unders have been extremely profitable through the first 3 weeks. Dogs are 30-18 ATS (62.5%) with away dogs seeing the best profitability at 19-10 ATS (65.52%). Unders have also been incredibly profitable with a 28-20 record to the under (58.3%).  There are a couple of things I want to mention related to this incredible start; first, when betting underdogs, in particular short dogs, I advise putting a small portion of your bankroll on the money line. This is a great way to build extra bankroll and take advantage of plus money bets. Second, sports betting is not easy and trends are great for extra edges, but we have to be wary of regression. This is why sticking to a strategy is important. You’re going to ride some highs and lows, but trying to play both sides of the market is a recipe for disaster. I’m seeing some incredible value on dogs again this week so without further a due…

Seattle +3 at San Francisco:

This is a buy-low spot on Seattle as they are coming off of two losses in a row. Admittedly this line is a bit chalky with 72% of the bets and 77% of the money coming in on the Seahawks. I have this at +3.5 and my recommendation is to hold off and shop around for the hook if you can find it. That being said I am making it an official play +3. This is also a great spot to throw a bit of money on the money line currently at +130. First and foremost, this is a division game and I love taking division dogs. Division games provide an extra edge for underdogs because the teams are very familiar with one another, and GM’s build their teams to win divisions so they match up well regardless of record. I am betting on Russell Wilson in this one! He is 27-10 ATS (70%) as a road dog and 26-14-4 ATS (65%) off a loss. The extra edge is that he has never lost 3 games in a row in his entire career. I simply can’t pass up taking Wilson in a rare underdog spot.

Baltimore +1/ML at Denver:

Hopefully, you jumped on this one earlier in the week. I like Baltimore to win this game regardless, but the line is flipping and the Ravens will be the favorite before kickoff. This was an early week bet for me at Baltimore +1.5 and a little on the money line as well. I still like it here with Baltimore still showing as a slight dog. A small tidbit to mention when betting on this game. If the line flips and the spread is anything between a PK and -1.5 I would recommend looking at the money line instead of the spread. Even if that means paying a little more juice it protects you from losing the bet completely if Baltimore wins by 1. This is another chalky dog play with 74% of the bets and 80% of the money coming in on the Ravens. Ultimately, I think the Ravens were teased up when they opened as dogs, and are probably in a lot of money line parlays too. This explains the heavy action, but regardless I like other edges here outside of what the market is showing is the public play. Denver has been playing very well and Teddy Bridgewater has looked incredible, which is why now is the time to sell high on them. The Broncos look good, but then again look at the teams they have played; Giants, Jags, and Jets. The Ravens are a big step up in class compared to those teams. Harbaugh is another edge I like in this game. He is 58% as a road dog, including 4-1 with Lamar Jackson, but beyond that, he is significantly better than his counterpart Vic Fangio which could be the difference in what bookmakers are saying will be a coin flip game.

Minnesota +2 vs Cleveland:

I am back in my contrarian comfort zone with this pick. Minnesota is only getting 38% of the bets and 30% of the money this week when they play host to the Cleveland Browns. While Cleveland has the better record, they have not necessarily been the more impressive team. Sure, week 1 was a fight for the ages and for 3 quarters the Browns looks good, but ultimately, they came up short against Elite talent again. They followed up that disappointing loss with an uninspiring win against Houston and a drumming of the Chicago Bears; two severely bad teams that don’t earn them any merit from me. On the other hand, the Vikings are literally only a couple of plays away from starting 3-0. An OT loss to Cincinnati with a questionable fumble call and a missed field goal against Arizona in week 2. The fact that this game is in Minnesota makes all the difference. Mike Zimmer is 35-21-1 ATS (62.5%) at home and 9-4 ATS (69.2%) as a home dog.  Kirk Cousins has actually been playing very well and Dalvin Cook is looking to be back from injury. I don’t have faith that the Cleveland defense is complete enough to cover all the ways the Vikings can attack them. The only way I see this going south for the Vikings is if Cleveland jumps out to a big early lead.

Week three was relatively safe for everyone in the pool, with all the big favorites taking care of business. About 15% of the league were resurrected by Saint Justin Tucker's NFL record 66 yard field goal as time expired, but who could root against that kick? The Chiefs loss against the Chargers knocked out 18 for the highest number of the week bringing the total survivors down to 1064. Already 199 people have moved on this week with that actually exciting Thursday night game, where the Bengals pulled out a comeback win with a game-ending field goal. That may have been the best spot all year to play Cincinnati and they almost punished you for it. After watching my first Jaguars game, I don't see a winless season in their future.

I decided to use my two picks on the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans. The Bills are the biggest favorite of the week opening at -16.5 against the quarterbackless Houston Texans. Buffalo looks to be rolling now ever since their week one slip up against the Steelers. Houston has no chance against any of the better teams in the league until they upgrade their QB. 

The Titans are my second choice for the week. There is no need for concern about them not having any wide receivers, they are playing the Jets. The Titans will get plenty of receptions on defense to make up for the absence of Brown and Jones. Zach Wilson must be ecstatic for Justin Fields' start for the Bears so he is no longer the biggest embarrassment at QB so far. Titans defense and a heavy dose of Derick Henry should be all it takes.

Good luck everyone! And Drink Five!

ENTRY #1           ENTRY #2

RAMS                 BUCCANEERS

BUCCANEERS      BROWNS

BRONCOS           CARDINALS

BILLS                 TITANS