Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

37+ Fantasy Points

 

A trio of quarterbacks leads the NFL in fantasy points for week 15. At the top of the group is Eagles rookie Jalen Hurts, who had his first start last week after seeing a handful of snaps in almost every game this season. Hurts’ debut was not bad, he had over 100 yards passing and the Eagles upset the Saints, but this week showed that he’s a legit QB. Hurts threw for 338 yards with 3 TDs, adding 63 yards and another TD on the ground for a total of 37.82 fantasy points. Zero turnovers, despite the loss, is probably the most important stat to the coach, and it’s clear that this job is about to be his to lose, and Wentz might be looking for a new home next year. Meanwhile, Josh Allen and Ryan Tannehill both eclipsed 37 fantasy points while leading their teams to 48 and 46 points respectively. Between them, they threw for 632 yards, 5 TDs, and ran for 4 touchdowns – two apiece. Both Tannehill and Allen are probably on lots of teams that are going to the finals, but if you managed to start Hurts and are going to the finals, well, just exactly how do you get around with those giant brass balls of yours?

 

1106 Days

 

There were three wide receivers of note that scored their first touchdown in a year or more on Sunday, but none of them had a gap like Dez Bryant, who scored for the Ravens. It was his first touchdown in 1,106 days, more than 3 years ago on December 10^th, 2017 – which was a 50-yard strike from Dak Prescott. Bryant was joined by fellow veteran WRs Antonio Brown (462 days) and Larry Fitzgerald (364 days – ok ok not technically a year). Both of whom caught touchdowns last year and today from the same QB, though Brown (and Brady) have the distinction of both moving to a new team. Honorable mentions go to Jake Kumerow (426 days) and Marcus Mariota – 445 days since his last passing TD and 772 days since his last rushing score. While we’re at it, might as well congratulate those who have never scored before - Lil’Jordan Humphrey (NO), Quez Watkins (PHI), Darrynton Evans (TEN), and Jalen Hurts (PHI) getting his first rushing TD, the only way the bookies count a real TD scored.

 

1,679 Rushing Yards

 

Derrick Henry, or El Tractorcito if you’ll help me propagate his fantastic nickname a little bit, is absolutely crushing everyone in rushing yards this year. He’s averaging 120 yards per game (ok, 119.9, but this is about gushing here…) and only needs to average a bit over 160 yards the last 2 games in order to reach the fabled 2,000-yard season. Through 14 games this year, he’s already passed his total from last year where he led the league with 1,540 yards in 15 games. Henry has nearly doubled up the 10^th highest rushing total on the year, Jonathan Taylor’s 842 yards. Henry’s only real competition at this point is Dalvin Cook, with 1,484 rushing yards. Cook actually leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 1,833, on pace for 2,256 total yards on the season. Cook has now cracked 300 points on the season, Henry is third with 278 and there’s a huge gap between him and 4^th place. Both Cook and Henry have gone over 300 touches for two years in a row, so be careful drafting next year

 

27 Passing Touchdowns

 

Justin Herbert tied the rookie passing touchdowns record this past Thursday, adding two more to his season total and tying Baker Mayfield’s record of 27 he set in 2018, and hasn’t yet matched in his career. Herbert still has two games left in the season in order to assume the mantle all on his own, though it should be noted that Mayfield started only 13 games in 2018, matching Herbert’s total so far this year. Herbert’s OT win over the Raiders probably put him back firmly in the lead for offensive rookie of the year, especially with the one-yard rushing touchdown to seal the game at the end of overtime, and despite Anthony Lynn’s apparent attempts to get his quarterback killed. Herbert is truly putting together an impressive rookie year, especially when one takes into account that the plan was not for him to start much, if at all this year. He has a 27:10 TD to INT ratio, something that QBs like Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, and Matt Ryan cannot boast. His 4 rushing TDs is also something that Mayfield could not match in his rookie year – he did not find the end zone on his own until his second season.

 

88 Total Rushing Yards

 

Who says you need a running game to be balanced or have success in this league? On Sunday, the Buccaneers and Falcons combined for a whopping 88 rushing yards between the two teams. Leonard Fournette led the way with a blistering 49 yards (and 2 scores, giving him a new fantasy day in the end), and 3 players wound up with negative rushing totals on the game, keeping us below 90. Brian Hill really helped that along, with 5 attempts for -2 yards. He added 2 catches for 9 yards, meaning he averaged exactly 1 yard per touch on the day. So, what did this lack of a rushing attack mean for the game as a whole? Well, the game blew the Vegas total out of the water, with 58 total points – under bettors were counting their winnings after a whopping 17 points in the first half. 22 teams passed the 88-yard mark and 5 players did it all on their own. In fact, those 5 all went over 120 rushing yards, leaving this game in the dust.

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! What a wild ride the 2020 season has been. The calendar has turned to 2021, and most fantasy leagues this season are now complete, but there is another week of NFL regular season football to go. While most of us know better than to play in leagues with a week 17 championship game, there are those leagues that exist, so while this week’s Rookie Report will be a little more slanted toward DFS options, I wanted to provide some insight about the rookies for those still playing for a title. Week 17 is all about motivation. What teams still have something to play for? Which teams will be phoning it in for the week? Knowing the answers to those questions will help you identify players who could have big final weeks and those who will disappoint. With that in mind, let’s dive into week 17…

 

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

 

Rookies to Start:

 

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 17: @KC, DrafKings main slate price: $7,100): Typically the Chiefs wouldn’t be a great matchup for a QB, but this is a game that Kansas City will just be trying to survive healthy. They’ve already clinched a playoff bye. Look for the Chargers to let Justin Herbert air it out a bit in his final regular-season game as a rookie with the Chiefs sitting the majority of their starters. Herbert has thrown for over 250 yards in all but 3 starts this season, and I fully expect him to keep that number at 3 this week, even with Keenan Allen sidelined again. Herbert should be a safe top-10 QB again this week.

 

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 17: vs. Jax., DK main slate price: $7,400): The Colts need to win this game AND have at least one other 10-5 AFC team lose in order to make the playoffs, so look for them to ride their best players to ensure they hold up their end. Over the last month, that means Taylor. JT has averaged 117 scrimmage yards and a touchdown and a half per game over the past 4 weeks, and this week he faces a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the 3^rd-most RB rushing yards. The Jaguars have allowed at least 1 back to reach 89 yards on the ground in 5 of their past 6 games, and one over 80 scrimmage yards in all 6. Taylor should have his way in this one for as long as the game is competitive. Triple-digit yards and multiple TDs is the ceiling for Taylor in this one, but he should be a safe bet for 15+ fantasy points in just about all formats this week.

 

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 17: @Cin., DK main slate price: $6,700): The Ravens come into this week with both Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards questionable to suit up. If both sit, Dobbins may get a crack at being a workhorse back against a defense that ranks 20^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Justice Hill would likely get some change of pace work, but it would be Dobbins’ show until the game got out of hand. A more likely scenario is that Ingram is able to play (he logged a full practice on Friday), but even in that scenario, I’d expect Dobbins to make a push for a top-10 week. He’s averaged 67 rushing yards per game during his current 5-game touchdown streak, and he should have no trouble reaching 70+ and a score again in this one. He should be very safe in DFS cash games, even if he lacks the ceiling you typically look for in tournaments. If Edwards and Ingram both sit, that ceiling is there.

 

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 17: @Phi., DK SNF showdown price: $9,000): Gibson returned from his turf toe injury last week and looked sharp, tallying 61 rushing yards on just 10 carries. This week he faces an Eagles team that will be without several defensive starters, including Fletcher Cox, Derek Barnett, and Duke Riley, who all start in the front 7. With that same trio sidelined last week (Cox played 7 snaps while the other 2 were out), Zeke Elliott looked like his old self and ran for 105 yards. It was just Elliott’s second 100-yard day of the year. Washington can clinch a division title with a win in this game, so they should be going full tilt while the Eagles just try to get through the game. Gibson is likely in line for a big game here and should be a staple in any showdown lineups for Sunday night, and would be a good choice for captain.

 

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 17: @Det, DK main slate price: $7,600): Jefferson should be able to put on one final show for the season on Sunday. The Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook, so they may throw a little more than usual, and the Lions have looked like they’ve thrown in the towel on the season in recent weeks. Detroit ranks dead last in pass-defense, DVOA, and has allowed the most WR points per game. In the past 3 weeks, the Lions have allowed at least one 100-yard wide receiver each week and given up 8 receiving TDs to opposing wideouts in that span. Jefferson and teammate Adam Thielen should both be great plays for DFS in week 17.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF showdown price: $11,400): Hurts has taken the starting job in Philly and run with it in the last few weeks. Turnovers hurt him in a bad loss to the Cowboys a week ago, but in his 3 starts he’s finished as the QB10, QB1, and QB16. This week he faces a Washington defense that has been one of the stingiest against the pass in the league and needs this win to clinch the division title. In their last 13 games, Washington has allowed just 4 QBs to throw for more than 220 yards, so Hurts will be hard-pressed to put up a 3^rd-straight 300-yard passing game, but he should still have a stable rushing floor. The rookie has run for 60+ yards in all 3 of his starts, and Washington has allowed 4 different QBs to run for 50+ this season. With Miles Sanders sidelined, even more of the rushing load should fall on Hurts. He’s a bit pricey for the showdown slate Sunday night but should be treated as a low-end QB1 for any teams that have championships this week.

 

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 17: vs. Min., DK main slate price: $6,300): The Lions appeared to have thrown in the towel on the 2020 season in recent weeks, but if that were truly the case Matt Stafford wouldn’t be playing through injury and starting Sunday. This game still has the potential to get out of hand with how bad the Detroit defense has been, but on paper, it should be a great matchup for Swift. Minnesota ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 6^th-most RB points per game. Swift appears to have his injury issues behind him after he played about two-thirds of the offensive snaps in each of the past two weeks and saw a total of 33 touches in those games. I’d expect similar usage in this one, and against this defense, that means a top-10 RB week could be in the offing. There is risk in betting on a Detroit player since it remains to be seen how motivated the Lions will be to win this game, but if you have him in a championship game he should probably be in your lineup.

 

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 17: vs. Ari., DK main slate price: $6,100): Akers was held out of practice for much of the week with a sprained ankle and is questionable for Sunday’s tilt with the Cardinals, but I’d expect him to be heavily involved if he’s able to play. The Rams will be without Jared Goff and will likely lean on the run more than usual, and Akers has shown himself in recent weeks to be the best option in this backfield. The Cardinals allow the 11^th-most RB points per game, and just last week were shredded by Jeff Wilson, Jr. to the tune of 183 rushing yards. Akers himself tallied 94 scrimmage yards and a score in the first meeting with Arizona. Something in that same ballpark would be a successful day for Akers in this one, but if he’s close to 100% he may be able to do even more. Keep a close eye on the injury updates here.

 

RB Rodney Smith, CAR (Wk. 17: vs. NO, DK main slate price: $4,000): Smith has been seeing extended playing time in recent weeks, averaging 36 scrimmage yards on 6 touches per game in the last 3 weeks, and Mike Davis is unlikely to play this week. The matchup isn’t a good one, with New Orleans allowing the fewest RB points per game, but in the last 3 weeks, they’ve let 4 different backs top 60 rushing yards and given up 5 running back scores in that span. Smith isn’t in the same class as the backs who have been running well against the Saints (CEH, Dalvin, Lev Bell, and Miles Sanders), but he’ll have plenty of opportunity with the Panthers’ backfield shorthanded. Smith should see 15+ touches, and his role as the default workhorse back isn’t built into his DFS price tag. He should return more than his cost in cash games and is a reasonable option for limited slate tournaments. He is also probably on the waiver wire if you have a championship game and need to replace a sidelined starter like Miles Sanders or Dalvin Cook. With the Saints missing all of their running backs, the Panthers may hang around in this game for a while and keep the ball going to Smith.

 

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. Mia., DK main slate price: $4,600): Moss is an interesting case for this week. The Bills don’t have a reason to aggressively try to win this game. I’d expect Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs to be done after the first series or two of the day, and several other key players may play limited snaps as well. While that could mean limited snaps for Moss and Devin Singletary, I’m not sure how comfortable the Bills will be giving all of the backfield work to 32-year-old Taiwan Jones, and with Allen off the field the quarterback won’t be vulturing goal-line carries from Moss. The Dolphins rank just 23^rd in run defense DVOA, so there is some upside for Moss if he does play close to his normal share of the snaps, but the risk of a shortened day for him is real.  

 

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. LV, DK main slate price: $4,200): Jeudy has caught a lot of flack from the fantasy world and Broncos’ fans after dropping 6 passes in last week’s loss to the Chargers. The thing that I take away from that game is that he was targeted 15 times. Targets are earned, and Jeudy had to be getting open a lot to see that many passes in his direction. We’ve consistently seen the Steelers go back to Diontae Johnson despite drops because he’s consistently able to get separation. This week Jeudy faces a Raiders defense that ranks 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. The corner he should match up with most often is rookie Damon Arnette, who has allowed an 80% completion percentage and nearly 10 yards per target into his coverage. I expect the Raiders offense to do enough to keep Denver throwing, and for Jeudy to be eager to make last week a distant memory. The rookie has some serious upside in this matchup that I expect him to make good on. It would take some balls to play him after his dropsies last week, but I think those that do so will be rewarded.

 

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 17: @NYG, DK main slate price: $5,200): Dallas is one of the teams that has every reason to play to win in week 17. A victory by the Cowboys and a loss by Washington on Sunday night would give Dallas the division title, so expect them to pull out all the stops. The Dallas offense has been coming together in recent weeks. Their two best yardage games without Dak Prescott at QB were in the last 2 weeks, and Lamb has been more consistent in recent weeks as well. He’s averaged 12.4 PPR points per game in the last 4 weeks, and this week gets a favorable individual matchup against slot corner Darnay Holmes. Amari Cooper will be shadowed by James Bradberry, and that should free up some extra targets for Lamb and Michael Gallup. Lamb went for 8 catches and 124 yards in the first meeting with the G-Men, albeit with Dak at QB. This is a week where Lamb has a solid chance to finish above that 4-40 floor that we’ve seen from him since Prescott went down.

 

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 17: @Ind., DK main slate price: $4,200): The Jaguars have already ruled out DJ Chark, James Robinson, and Collin Johnson for this week, so Shenault should be heavily featured in a matchup where the team should be playing from behind and throwing a lot. Shenault already leads the team in targets from Mike Glennon with 21 and should be a good bet for 6+ targets again this week. The Colts have been a tougher pass defense, ranking 7^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 14^th-most WR points per game and given up 5 receiver scores in the past 3 weeks. Shenault is the best bet of the Jaguar receivers to find the end zone this week.

 

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. Mia., DK main slate price: $3,600): The Bills have already clinched the 2^nd or 3^rd seed in the AFC, and it seems likely that they’ll rest their starters for the majority of this game. They haven’t officially announced it, but after clinching the division in week 16 last season the Bills sat most of their starters and played Josh Allen for just 7 snaps in week 17. Davis could serve as the de facto WR1 for much of this game. Even with Matt Barkley at QB for most of the game, it shouldn’t be hard for Davis to outproduce his price tag if the other receivers sit as expected. The Dolphins rank a solid 6^th in pass defense DVOA but have allowed the 16^th-most WR points per game and given up over 100 receiving yards to Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers in the past 2 weeks. I’d be at least a little surprised if Davis doesn’t lead the Bills in receiving yards this week.

 

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 17: vs. Bal., DK main slate price: $5,000): Higgins finally posted a big day without Joe Burrow at QB last week, but it came against the pathetic Texans’ secondary. This week’s matchup is much tougher against Baltimore, and Higgins is questionable with a hamstring issue, so keep a close eye on the injury report if you’re considering him. If he does play, the volume should be there for him again. Higgins has averaged 7 targets per game since Burrow went down with an injury. The most likely outcome for Higgins this week would be another floor game in the ballpark of 50 yards, but the volume gives him some upside. Baltimore has allowed the 9^th-fewest WR points per game, but have given up 65+ receiving yards to 4 different receivers in the last 4 weeks.

 

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 17: @Cle., DK main slate price: $5,700): Claypool is a bit of a roll of the dice this week with Mason Rudolph under center and the playing time for the rest of the Steelers’ starters still up in the air. Diontae Johnson is the receiver most likely to sit in this one, so Claypool should still be involved. Cleveland has been vulnerable to opposing receivers, allowing the 10^th-most WR points per game, but it remains to be seen if Rudolph will be able to help these receivers take advantage. The Steelers are a 9-point underdog, so they should be throwing. Claypool’s upside is going to come from catching a long ball or getting in the end zone, and for what it’s worth, Rudolph did complete 11 passes of 30+ yards last season in 10 games. I’d probably look elsewhere for most lineups this week, but if you want to try your hand at the showdown slate, Claypool and James Washington are the two Steelers I think are most likely to have a nice game. Washington was a college teammate of Rudolph and is $4,800 cheaper than Claypool in the showdown format.

 

Upside DFS Sleepers:

 

RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 17: @Hou., DK main slate price: $4,000): The Titans need to win this week to secure the AFC South title, but this one has the chance to get out of hand. The Texans’ defense made the Bengals look unstoppable last weekend to the tune of 540 offensive yards. Derrick Henry should run through this defense like a hot knife through butter, and that could lead to Evans getting some garbage time run in the 2^nd half. The last time the Titans had garbage time Evans posted 57 scrimmage yards and a TD against the Lions. The Texans allow the most running back points per game, so any extended playing time for Evans could have a nice upside.

 

WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 17: vs. Ari., DK main slate price: $3,000): The Rams lost Cooper Kupp to the COVID list this week, and Jefferson should be the next man up in the slot for them. They need to win this week against Arizona to make sure they make the playoffs. It seems logical that the Rams would use more 2-tight end sets with Tyler Higbee & Gerald Everett, but the game script could force them into more WR-heavy formations. The Rams will be without starting QB Jared Goff, so keeping pace with the Cardinals may be a bit tougher in this one. Jefferson likely gets a lot of practice work with Wolford on the 2^nd team and seems a good bet to see at least a handful of targets in this one. Jefferson costs the minimum on DraftKings and faces a middling defense against WRs.

 

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 17: vs. Pit., DK main slate price: $3,500): Before last week’s trip to the COVID list, DPJ had been on quite a roll with 221 receiving yards in the 3 games prior. He’s topped 50 yards in all 4 games where he’s played at least 50% of the offensive snaps, and it looks like the Steelers will be resting several of their key players in this game. There is a great opportunity here for Peoples-Jones to get loose for another big play or 2. There is a low floor here since DPJ hasn’t had more than 5 targets or 3 catches in a game, so he’s a better option in a DFS tournament than in cash games or in any championship matchups.

 

WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 17: @Car., DK main slate price: $3,200): The shorthanded Saints will be without receivers Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith again this week, but will also be without most of their running backs. They aren’t going to win this game simply by pounding the rock with Ty Montgomery, so there should be a bit more passing volume than we saw last week when they leaned on Alvin Kamara for a half-dozen touchdowns. Juwan Johnson had seen a spike in recent playing time with the injuries ahead of him, but while playing 90 offensive snaps over the past 4 weeks he’s managed just 2 catches for 30 yards on 6 targets. Callaway returned from IR last week and immediately played about twice as many snaps as Johnson (42 to 23) and totaled 3-26 on 4 targets. Callaway is the guy who is going to benefit from the increased passing volume, and he costs $200 less than Johnson on the main slate this week. There isn’t a huge ceiling for Callaway, but if the Saints substitute the short passing game for the run game, there could be 6+ targets there for Marquez this week.

 

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 17: @Cin., DK main slate price: $3,000): Willie Snead is questionable for the Ravens in what will be a must-win game in Cincy, and Duvernay is the best suited of the other receivers to man the slot. If Snead sits, Duvernay should get some chances to showcase his track-star speed against a defense that has allowed the 3^rd-most 20+ yard completions on the year. There is some risk here since Dez Bryant and Miles Boykin have played ahead of Duvernay in recent weeks, so I would prefer Devin as more of a dart throw in the showdown slate for this game, where his price tag is just $1,000, rather than a bigger tournament.

 

WR Quez Watkins, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF showdown price: $1,600): Watkins has shown a penchant for coming up with splash plays in his limited snaps with Jalen Hurts at QB. He took a screen pass for a 32-yard score against the Cardinals and hauled in a 43-yard grab a week ago in Dallas. Watkins is questionable for this week, but several pass catchers have already been ruled out for week 17 – Dallas Goedert, DeSean Jackson and Richard Rodgers. If Watkins plays, there could be some increased opportunity for him, and his price tag is more than reasonable for the showdown slate Sunday night. It would only take one splash TD play to make him worth that cost.

 

Rookies to Sit (Or avoid in DFS):

 

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 17: @Buf., DK main slate price: $5,100): Tua has thrown for fewer than 100 yards and been pulled in each of his last two games away from Miami. He likely won’t get pulled again this week as coach Brian Flores won’t have Ryan Fitzpatrick as a fallback option in this game. The bearded backup was placed on the COVID list this week. I’d still expect the Dolphins to lean on the run game unless the game script forces their hand. They’ll need to win this one to ensure they make the playoffs, and Buffalo has been locked in as a pass defense, allowing fewer than 360 total passing yards in the last 3 weeks. I’d steer clear of Tua in this one.

 

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 17: @Buf., DK main slate price: $4,400): With the return of Myles Gaskin last week, Ahmed handled just 6 carries and saw 1 target against the Raiders. With a playoff berth on the line this week, it should be the Gaskin show again unless the game gets out of hand. If Buffalo rests their starters and Miami pulls away, it could be a combination of Ahmed and Breida carrying the ball down the stretch. I don’t see a huge ceiling for Ahmed unless Gaskin gets hurt early.

 

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 17: @Chi., DK main slate price: $4,900): Don’t fall in love with the performance you saw last week. Green Bay gets Jamaal Williams back this week, which will send Dillon back to the bench, and they face a much less generous run defense. The Bears rank 4^th in run defense DVOA.

 

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 17: vs. Atl., DK main slate price: $4,400): A Bucs win this week ensures that they’ll face the NFC East’s sub-.500 champ in their first playoff game, so they’ll treat this like a game they want to win. Last week was the first time all year that Vaughn played more than 25% of the offensive snaps, and it came in a lopsided blowout with Ronald Jones out. Jones returns this week, so even a blowout might not result in a ton of snaps for Vaughn in week 17.

 

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 17: @Cle., DK main slate price: $4,000): The Steelers will be resting starters since they’re locked into the 2^nd or 3^rd seed in the AFC, so James Conner may not play this week. In the last 3 games that Conner sat this season, it was Benny Snell who carried the load. McFarland played a total of just 32 offensive snaps in those games, seeing 8 carries and 3 targets. I’d expect more of the same here if Conner sits.

 

RB Tony Jones, Jr., NO (Wk. 17: @Car., DK showdown price: $200): Jones isn’t even available for the main slate on DraftKings, but he is expected to be called up from the practice squad Sunday with all of the New Orleans running backs sidelined on the COVID list. Don’t fall for his $200 price tag if you’re playing the showdown slate for this game. I’d expect the short-yardage back to be Taysom Hill, and for Ty Montgomery to do his best to fill in for Alvin Kamara. The Saints are still in play for the NFC’s playoff bye, so they won’t just phone this game in. I’d be surprised if Jones gets more than a few carries in this one.

 

RB Jason Huntley, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF Showdown price: $200): I know, $200 is basically free on the showdown slate, and Huntley should see at least some opportunity with Miles Sanders sidelined, but Huntley hasn’t been active in weeks. He still has Boston Scott, Corey Clement, and Jordan Howard ahead of him on the depth chart. It would be a positive week for Huntley if he just gets on the field for a few touches.

 

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Was., DK SNF Showdown price: $6,200): Reagor has essentially served as the Eagles’ WR1 in terms of targets, but Quez Watkins’ 57 yards last week is more than Reagor has put up in any game this season. Reagor costs $4,600 more than Watkins on the showdown slate. Washington allows the 4^th-fewest WR points per game. Don’t pay up for Reagor expecting a big game this week, but I do think he has the talent to take a step forward next season.

 

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. GB, DK main slate price: $4,100): Mooney has found the end zone in two of the last 3 games, but if you roll him out there in a championship game or DFS lineups this week you’re counting on him finding the end zone again. Green Bay has allowed just 1 WR touchdown in their last 4 games combined. Volume has been there for Mooney in several games this year (5 games with 7+ targets), but he’s averaged just 4 catches for 41 yards in those games. He’s topped 50 scrimmage yards just twice all season.

 

WR Michael Pittman, Jr., IND (Wk. 17: vs. Jax., DK main slate price: $4,100): Pittman gets a plus matchup against a miserable Jaguars defense this week, but he’s fallen behind Zach Pascal and now sits at 3^rd in the target pecking order for the Colts. Indy is favored by 14 points this week, so they likely won’t throw much in the second half. That limited volume makes Pittman a bad bet as a dart throw.

 

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 17: @Den., DK main slate price: $3,600): This may look like a good spot for Ruggs to make a couple of splash plays in a matchup against a team that is missing all of its top-3 cornerbacks, but it’s not a wager I’d make. The Broncos have been this shorthanded at CB for 3 games now, and have allowed just 2 completions for 30+ yards in those games, and the corner that Ruggs will match up with most (De’Vante Bausby) runs a 4.35-second 40-yard dash. Ruggs isn’t going to beat you with volume -he has no more than 3 receptions in any game this year – and it doesn’t look like a great bet that he gets a big play this week.

 

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 17: @NE, DK main slate price: $3,000): Mims has played 4 games this year with Sam Darnold at QB and Jamison Crowder on the field. In those games, he’s totaled 17 targets, 9 catches, and 125 yards. The Pats allow the 11^th-fewest WR points per game. This doesn’t strike me as a good opportunity to bet on a big game from the rookie.

 

WR Lynn Bowden, Jr., MIA (Wk. 17: @Buf., DK main slate price: $3,500): The Dolphins should be getting healthier this week, as DeVante Parker could return from a hamstring injury, and Bowden has averaged fewer than 50 scrimmage yards per game in the last 4 weeks despite seeing significant usage in that span (nearly 6 targets and 1 rush attempt per game).

 

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 17: vs. Min., DK main slate price: $3,000): The Lions still will be missing Kenny Golladay yet again this weekend, but that hasn’t resulted in Cephus having an expanded role this year. Quintez hasn’t seen more than 3 targets in any game this year that wasn’t against the Bears. There’s also the risk that Detroit pulls Matt Stafford if he takes a few hits in this one. There is an upside for next season with Golladay and Marvin Jones, Jr. each hitting free agency this offseason, but there isn’t much to get excited about here for week 17.

 

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 17: vs. Atl., DK main slate price: $3,200): The Bucs need to win this game to make sure they don’t face off with the Saints, Packers or Seahawks next weekend, and that means very limited snaps for Johnson, as usual, barring a blowout win.

 

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. GB, DK main slate price: $3,000): Kmet has been a popular name in recent weeks as he’s been playing the vast majority of the Bears’ offensive snaps and been targeted 6+ times in 3 of the last 4 games. He’s also been handily out-produced by teammate Jimmy Graham in that span and faces a defense this week that allows the 4^th-fewest TE points per game. He’s also still questionable to even play in this one. In his best receiving game of the year so far Kmet finished with just 45 yards. I don’t have confidence that he bests that in week 17.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully, you’ve gotten some use out of this column throughout the year in figuring out what to do with the rookies on your fantasy teams. Make sure to keep an eye out for any updates throughout the week and up to kickoff. There could be some surprise benchings/inactive players for teams with nothing to play for this week. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I’ll be back next season to help you navigate your way through a new crop of rookies. I look forward to filling you all in on Travis Etienne, Kyle Pitts, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Justin Fields each week. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re just a few weeks out from NFL training camp, so that means it’s time once again to turn your attention back to fantasy football (if you’re one of those crazy people that stops thinking about it during the offseason). Today is part one of my 4-part look at the incoming rookie class that I call the “Rookie Fact Sheet”. Today we look at the quarterback class, but I’ll have more coming on the running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends soon. 

 

The concept is simple. I’m going to give you some facts related to this year’s quarterback class based on things like college production, draft capital, and what those things have historically meant for NFL production. Then, I’ll tell you how I interpret those facts for 2021 and/or beyond. Since many of you in dynasty leagues have already had your rookie drafts, this series will slant more toward redraft leagues, but there will be some fun dynasty tidbits for you as well. Without further ado, let’s dive in…

 

FACT: 

Since 1990, only 3 non-FBS (or Division 1-A as it was previously known) QBs have been drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.

Steve McNair – Four top-5 fantasy seasons, six top-10 seasons, nine top-20 seasons.

Joe Flacco – One top-10 season, three top-15 seasons, eight top-20 seasons.

Carson Wentz – One top-5 season, two top-10 seasons, five seasons as a QB2 or better

 

What It Means:

Don’t be afraid to draft Trey Lance just because he went to North Dakota State. The league has identified 3 QBs in the last 30 years that played at the FCS level as being good enough to be taken in the first round of the draft, and all 3 turned out to be pretty good. Don’t be afraid of the lower level of competition that he faced. 

 

FACT: 

Since 2000, only 7 quarterbacks who ran for over 1,000 yards in a college season were drafted in the first or second round of the NFL draft – Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Colin Kaepernick, Deshaun Watson, and Vince Young. 

Five of them have posted a top-10 fantasy season, and Hurts could make it six this season. Watson and Newton each have multiple top-5 seasons, and Lamar Jackson has posted a QB1 season. 

 

What It Means:

This is another Trey Lance fact. Lance ran for 1,100 yards in 2019 for North Dakota State, and became the 8th QB on this list when he was drafted. I expect that Jimmy Garoppolo will probably open the season as the starting QB for the 49ers, but I don’t think it will take long to turn the page to Lance even if they’re winning games early on. This is a roster that if healthy is likely to win games even if Garoppolo is holding the offense back. The last time Kyle Shanahan had a dynamic runner at QB like this was in 2012 with Washington and RG3. Griffin ended that season as the QB5 with over 800 rushing yards, and Washington finished the year ranked 4th in the league in points and 5th in total yards. If Shanahan thinks Lance can open up this offense the same way that Griffin did back in ’12, he won’t hesitate to make the switch. Lance is a player I would be targeting in the later rounds of 1 QB leagues, and might even be willing to take as a QB2 in superflex and 2QB formats. Just make sure to get a 3rd QB who will open the year as a starter. I expect Lance to be a fringe QB1 as a rookie in weeks where he has the job. 

 

FACT:

Three quarterbacks other than Justin Fields have posted 40 passing touchdowns and 400 rushing yards in one college season and then been drafted into the NFL.

Deshaun Watson – Three consecutive top-5 fantasy seasons

Kyler Murray – Back-to-back top-10 seasons to start his career, including a top-5 finish in 2020.

Marcus Mariota – Four consecutive QB2 finshes when he was a starter. He didn’t play 16 games in any of those seasons.

 

What It Means: 

Fields’ ceiling at the NFL level is sky high. I hope we’ve moved past the harebrained idea that Fields is going to be a bust just because he went to Ohio State. Fields is just the third ever 1st-round QB drafted out of Ohio State, and one of them was drafted nearly 40 years ago (Art Schlichter), so if you’re using OSU as a knock against him, you’re basically saying you don’t like him because Dwayne Haskins was a bust. Fields has exactly the kind of fantasy upside you should be chasing in leagues, and he landed in an offense that made Alex Smith into the QB4 in 2017, and Mitch Trubisky into the QB11 in points per game in 2018. Like Trey Lance, he might not open the season as the starter, but he’s going to force Matt Nagy’s hand sooner than later. You should be drafting him as a mid-QB2 in redraft leagues. Like with Lance, just make sure you have a fill-in for the early weeks if it’s superflex. 

 

FACT: 

Since 2000, nine rookie QBs have finished as the QB14 or better. All nine had at least one wide receiver on the roster who had posted a top-10 fantasy season (non-PPR) prior to that season. 

Among the 5 first-round QBs this season, only Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields have a past top-10 WR as a teammate.

 

What It Means:

If you want to make an upside bet on a rookie QB in redraft leagues this year, Lawrence and Fields are probably the two to target. Neither Trey Lance nor Zach Wilson will have a receiver that has previously posted a top-24 season, and Mac Jones’ top target Nelson Agholor hasn’t finished higher than the WR22. Having a top-10 WR doesn’t automatically mean a QB will be a top finisher (14 of the 32 rookie QBs who started 11+ games and didn’t finish in the top-14 in that span had a previous top-10 WR as a teammate), but since 2000 it has seemingly been a prerequisite to finishing as a QB1 or close to it. If you’re drafting a rookie QB to start for your fantasy team you’re definitely living dangerously, but Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields are the best bets to be worthwhile starters. 

 

FACT:

In his last six seasons as head coach at Ohio State, Urban Meyer’s quarterbacks threw for 38 or more touchdowns in 4 of them.

 

What It Means: 

Urban Meyer has a reputation of having a run-heavy offensive system, but that system has resulted in high-volume passing touchdown totals in many of Meyer’s most recent seasons as coach. Trevor Lawrence has been kind of overlooked since training camp started as videos of Trey Lance and Justin Fields throwing dimes have popped up on twitter, but there’s a reason why Lawrence was pretty much the consensus QB1 in this class. He’s got plenty of receiving weapons and is almost assured to be the week 1 starter. Lawrence is the safest of the rookie QBs in re-draft. 

 

FACT:

Mac Jones is the first quarterback selected in the first round of the NFL draft on a team coached by Bill Belichick.

 

What It Means:

There isn’t too much to read into this one. Belichick stumbled upon Tom Brady as a 6th round pick in 2000 and hasn’t had much need to pick a QB in the first round since. Jimmy Garoppolo, picked back in 2014, was the only second rounder Belichick had ever picked. The one thing I’ll mention here is that there is a narrative that Bill Belichick won’t play rookies early on, but in reality 14 of the 18 first round picks Belichick has made in his time as Patriots’ head coach have played in at least 12 games as rookies. Only N’Keal Harry and Ben Watson appeared in fewer than 8 games as rookies. The QB position is sometimes viewed differently, but again we have no track record of what Bill will do with a first-round rookie signal-caller because he’s never had one. I expect Cam Newton to open the season as starter, but don’t be surprised if Mac is playing sooner than expected. 

 

FACT: 

20 Quarterbacks scored 240+ fantasy points in 2020. 

Since 2000, only 2 quarterbacks not drafted in the first round scored 240+ points or more as a rookie: Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson, and both scored more than 60 fantasy points rushing the ball.

 

What It Means:

This one is pretty straightforward. If a quarterback wasn’t drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, he shouldn’t be on your radar for redraft leagues. Only 2 such QBs in the last 2 decades scored enough points as a rookie that they would’ve been a top-20 QB last year. If you’re going to throw a late dart at a guy like this, it should be a guy that has the ability to add points with his legs. Davis Mills seems to have a clear path to win playing time early on as a rookie, but he totaled 86 rushing yards in 14 college games. Kyle Trask, who appears to be in line to back up Tom Brady in Tampa, rushed for 54 yards in 27 college games.

There are 3 QBs drafted after the first round this year that do have running ability. Kellen Mond, Ian Book, and Sam Ehlinger all posted a 500-yard rushing season in college. Book and Ehlinger both appear to be no higher than 3rd on their team depth charts this season (Ehlinger may be 2nd with the Wentz injury, but it seems inevitable that they add a veteran QB). That leaves just Kellen Mond, who would likely step in as the starter if anything were to happen to Kirk Cousins. Kirk Cousins has missed just one game in the last 6 seasons, and it was a week 17 game where he was rested because the Vikings were locked into their playoff position. Leave Mond to the waiver wire unless an injury does occur, even in 2-QB leagues.

 

That’s all I’ve got for now. I’ll be back soon with the rookie fact sheets on the running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, and eventually my rookie rankings for 2021. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if there’s anything you want to yell at me about written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game. 

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re about to get into the full swing of the preseason, which means your fantasy draft is probably fast approaching. Today I continue my preseason look at the rookie class. If you missed my QB fact sheet or running back fact sheet, you can find the QBs here, and the RBs here, but today I’m looking at the tight ends. The premise is simple. I’m going to give you some cold hard facts that apply to the rookie tight end class based on things like draft capital, college production, and coaching tendencies, and then give you my interpretation of what those things mean for 2021 season and beyond. Since most dynasty rookie drafts are over, the info is going to slant towards redraft leagues, but there will be some dynasty tidbits thrown in as well. Let’s dive in…

 

FACT:

The average TE4 in the past 5 seasons has scored 195.6 PPR points. Only 2 rookie tight ends have ever scored more PPR points than that, most recently Keith Jackson in 1988. Kyle Pitts is being drafted as the TE4 in redraft leagues.

 

What it means:

As you might expect, any rookie tight-end overview might as well just be called the Kyle Pitts article. A lot of these facts are going to focus on Pitts. What this particular stat is telling you is that Pitts will need to post the best rookie TE season of the last 30 years to be worth his ADP. While that’s within his range of outcomes, I’m not sure it’s a bet that I’m willing to make. Maybe if I dig into some of the reasons why he’s so highly regarded I can get a bit more clarity…

 

FACT:

In all the years that Arthur Smith was on the offensive coaching staff for the Titans (since 2012), they’ve never ranked higher than 19^th in the league in pass attempts. In his two years as the offensive coordinator, they ranked 31^st and 30^th.

 

What it means:

A big piece of the argument in Kyle Pitts’ favor for 2021 is that he steps in as the number 2 target in one of the highest passing volume offenses in the league, but will they stay a high-volume passing offense? Atlanta has ranked in the top-10 in passing attempts in the league in 10 of the last 12 seasons, and in the top-5 in 6 of the last 9, but Arthur Smith would prefer if the Falcons’ offense is more balanced in 2021 if his coaching history is any indication. The coaches that Smith cut his teeth under in the NFL had run-heavy offenses, and Smith continued that in his two seasons as the offensive coordinator.

The Falcons don’t have Derrick Henry, and they have a Vegas win total of just 7 games, so they aren’t going to rank 30^th in pass attempts this season like the Titans did in 2020. They’re still likely to throw substantially less often this season. It’s entirely possible they fall out of the top-10 after ranking 4^th in pass attempts last year. Don’t be surprised if they throw the ball fewer times in 17 games this season than they did in 16 games in 2020.  If you’re penciling in the Falcons for 625+ pass attempts, and 120+ targets for Pitts, you’re probably setting those marks too high.

 

FACT:

Since 1980, there have been 7 tight ends selected in the top-10 picks in the NFL draft. Only Junior Miller (156.2 PPR points in 1980) scored 100 or more PPR points as a rookie.

 

What it means:

Pitts’ lofty draft capital is another brick people use in building the case for him, but in the last 41 years, only one tight end drafted in the top 10 finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end as a rookie. None of those players were drafted quite as highly as Pitts (4^th overall), but Kellen Winslow and Vernon Davis were both picked 6^th, Junior Miller was picked 7^th, and TJ Hockenson was picked 8^th and was the first non-QB offensive player drafted in 2019. While I agree with most folks that Pitts is nearly a lock to finish as a top-10 tight end in 2021, every single tight end drafted in the last 4 decades with similar draft capital to Pitts has underwhelmed as a rookie.

 

FACT:

Since 1990, there have been 34 tight ends drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. Only 2 of them (Tony Gonzalez and Greg Olsen) have more than 3 seasons with 800 or more receiving yards. There have been 8 non-first-round picks with more than three 800-yard seasons in that span.

 

What it means:

This stat looks at Pitts’ draft capital through the dynasty league lens. The true elite producers at tight end have often come from unexpected places. Gronk was drafted in the 2^nd round. Travis Kelce was a third-round pick. Darren Waller was a 6^th-rounder. George Kittle a 5^th, Shannon Sharpe a 7^th, and Antonio Gates an undrafted free agent. The NFL has had a really hard time identifying the true difference-makers at the position for a long time. Pitts is already going as the 25^th overall pick in dynasty start-up leagues. At that price point, you basically need him to have a career like Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates or Travis Kelce where he is a perennial top-3 fantasy tight-end to be worth what you’re paying. If his career looks more like Greg Olsen’s or Vernon Davis’, you’re going to regret ponying up for him.

 

FACT:

According to PlayerProfiler, Noah Fant had a higher college dominator rating, an earlier breakout age, and a higher SPARQ-x score than Kyle Pitts

Vernon Davis was better than Pitts in all those areas except breakout age, but Davis also ran a faster 40-yard dash than Pitts.

 

What it means:

Before Pitts landed in Atlanta as the 4^th overall draft pick, it was his size, athleticism, and college production that had people calling him the greatest tight end prospect of all-time, but there’s a case to be made that a player drafted just two years ago was a better athlete and was more productive in college than Pitts…and Vernon Davis in 2006 is probably the most athletic tight end prospect of all-time.

In fairness to Pitts, his overall combination of draft capital, landing spot, athleticism, and college production hasn’t been duplicated in the league’s history. He truly is among the best tight-end prospects to ever come into the league, if he’s not *the* best. Barring injury he’s a virtual lock to finish as a top-10 tight end this season. Just know that if you draft Pitts at his ADP in any format, you’re betting on him posting a historic rookie season. For me, the gap between Pitts and some of the tight ends that have come before him and failed to stand out as rookies isn’t wide enough for me to make that bet.

 

FACT:

In the past 5 seasons, the average TE12 has scored 138.5 PPR points.

Since 2000, only 6 rookie tight ends have scored more than that. Four of them were drafted in the first or second round of the NFL Draft.

 

What it means:

There isn’t a lot of reason to consider any rookie tight ends taken in the 3^rd round or later in redraft unless it’s on the waiver wire after they show you something in-season. Since 2000 there have been 182 tight ends drafted in the 3^rd round or later that at least caught one pass as a rookie, and another 141 undrafted free agents who did. Only 2 of those players scored 138.5 or more PPR points as a rookie. Don’t waste a draft pick thinking you can pick the one-in-150 guy who has a solid rookie season. This approach doesn’t apply to dynasty though. Plenty of quality tight ends have come from after the first two rounds – Travis Kelce, Jason Witten, George Kittle, Antonio Gates, etc. They just didn’t produce as rookies.

 

FACT:

Since 2000, there have been 55 tight ends drafted after the 2^nd round of the NFL draft that were 24 years old or older as a rookie (according to Pro-Football-Reference). Three of those 55 tight ends caught for more than 350 receiving yards as a rookie. All three of them – George Kittle, Owen Daniels, and Jimmy Graham - went on to post multiple top-10 fantasy seasons. None of the other 52 posted multiple TE1 seasons.

 

What it means:

We’re talking about Jacob Harris here. Harris is one of the more intriguing day-three tight-end picks in this year’s draft. He’s a converted wide receiver, so he has the receiving skills that fantasy players look for, and he landed in a good situation with a quality QB and a creative coach who has said glowing things about him since the selection…but at 24, Harris is old for a rookie. Like most rookie tight ends, I don’t expect him to be useful in redraft leagues, but he’s worth a stash in dynasty leagues to see how he performs this year. A tight end with first or second-round draft capital, even an older one, is going to get opportunities at some point. As a 3^rd-rounder or later though, those older tight ends need to show something in year one or they probably won’t get much of a shot in later seasons. Dennis Pitta and Brandon Myers are the only TEs since 2000 that fit this category to post even one TE1 season after failing to hit 350 yards as a rookie. If Harris gets to 350+ yards as a rookie, you should be looking to buy or hold into year two. If he fails to get there, you should probably be looking to sell at any moment where an offseason narrative causes his value to spike.

 

FACT:

Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007, the Steelers have drafted 8 tight ends (including Pat Freiermuth this season). Only Matt Spaeth played at least 30% of the offensive snaps as a rookie (He played 40%).

 

What it means:

Pat Freiermuth probably isn’t going to be on the field as much as you’d like him to be this season. He does have the highest draft capital of any tight end drafted in the Tomlin era, but I’d expect his rookie usage to be similar to Spaeth, who was a third-round pick in 2007. Eric Ebron returns after being targeted 91 times in 2020, and while he can make frustrating blunders at times, he’s also finished as a top-15 fantasy tight end in 5 of the last 6 years. If Ebron stays healthy, he’s going to be the team’s TE1 and Freiermuth won’t be much more than a TD dart throw for most of his rookie season. 2021 is the last season of Ebron’s contract, so the path is clear for the rookie from Penn State to be the lead tight end for the Steelers in 2022. You should be looking to trade for him in-season in dynasty leagues if your league-mate who has him gets frustrated with his lack of rookie production.

That’s all I’ve got for the tight end class. Hopefully, it helps give you some clarity on these guys as you head into your drafts.  I’ll be back next week with a look at the wide receivers, but feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if there’s anything written above you want to yell at me about. As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.