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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully, your team is still alive and kicking for the fantasy semifinals. We’re starting to see some impressive rookies like Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers have breakout games and keep fantasy seasons alive. Hopefully, your teams have been benefitting from those performances. The lineup choices this week are crucial, so make sure you follow the health updates throughout the week. There are a lot of players at the same positions listed under ‘Rookies to Start’ and ‘Borderline Rookies’ this week, so keep in mind the order they’re listed in and make the best choice based on who else is on your team. A ‘Rookie to Start’ may not be an automatic start for you. Let’s dive into week 15…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 15: @LV): Herbert had a someone muted performance last week with 243 passing yards and 2 scores, but it was a vast improvement over what he did against New England the week before. He gets to square off with the Raiders this week and should have a great chance to at least match what he did last week against a Vegas defense that allows the 10^th-most QB points per game. The Raiders have given up exactly two passing scores in each of their last 4 games and 5 of their last 6, and Herbert threw for 326 yards and a pair of scores in the first meeting. The Raiders haven’t been giving up big blowup games to QBs since they are also abysmal against the run, so Herbert should be in line for a low-end QB1 performance. I wouldn’t be starting him over any of the top-tier options at the position (Mahomes, Rodgers, Russ, Josh Allen, Lamar, Kyler), but if you don’t have any of those top guys Herbert should be a solid QB play this week.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): The Colts are finally starting to unleash Taylor the way they should, and he is making defenses pay. He’s posted back-to-back top-3 weeks, and one of them came against this week’s opponent, the Texans. In that game, the Colts didn’t really start to feed Taylor the ball until the 4^th quarter. I expect it to start earlier this week after what he showed against the Raiders. The Texans are one of the worst run defenses in the league, ranking 29^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and allowing the 2^nd-most running back fantasy points per game. They’ve allowed the 2^nd-most rushing yards, the 2^nd-highest yards per rush average, and are tied for the 4^th-most rushing touchdowns allowed. If Taylor gets fed the ball as he should, there’s no reason he can’t have a 3^rd straight high RB1 performance.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Watching what Akers has done in the last few weeks has to have people questioning why he was playing behind Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown for so long. After running for 156 yards and 2 TDs combined in weeks 12 & 13, Akers put on a clinic last week against New England. He didn’t find the end zone but totaled nearly 200 yards from scrimmage. We’ve seen what kind of fantasy upside a running back in a Sean McVay offense can have if they commit to him as the lead back thanks to Todd Gurley. Gurley was the number 1 running back in fantasy in 2017 & 2018. I’m not saying I think Akers will be at that level, but he can be a top-10 running back going forward if he’s the true lead guy. This week’s matchup looks great on paper against the 0-13 Jets. The Rams are favored by a ridiculous 17 points and should be able to lean on the ground game a lot, but the Jets defense is much more vulnerable to the aerial attack. New York ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, but 8^th in that stat against the run. They give up plenty of points to opposing backs (12^th-most in the league), but they don’t give up the big blow-up games very often. Only 3 running backs have reached 15 fantasy points against the Jets this year, and only Melvin Gordon scored more than 1 touchdown against them. Because of this, I wouldn’t treat Akers as a chalk play in DFS formats, but volume should get him into the top 10-12 running backs for the week in what is still a plus matchup.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 15: @Bal.): Every week I look at Robinson’s matchup and see something that doesn’t look great for him on paper, and every week he comes through with a solid fantasy day. Last week he actually had a down game, and still finished with 12 fantasy points. This week is no different. Baltimore is favored by two touchdowns and ranks 9^th in run defense DVOA, so the game script could get away from the Jaguars again, but you have to count on Robinson to keep doing what he’s done all year. The Ravens have given up at least 60 rushing yards and 10 fantasy points to the opposing RB1 in each of their last 5 games, and I see no reason why Robinson won’t get to those marks as well. The return of Gardner Minshew at QB could provide a spark for the Jaguars offense, and he actually targets running backs in the passing game at a slightly higher clip than Mike Glennon this year (20.5% to 18%) albeit in a small sample size. Robinson should be a safe RB play once again this week despite the tough matchup.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 15: @Ten.): Swift returned from his concussion/illness last weekend and went right back to his usual role as lead back, playing 53% of the snaps and scoring a short rushing TD. He seems to be recovered, and that’s good for your fantasy lineups this week. He gets to face a Tennessee defense that has allowed the 7^th-most RB points per game. Game script could lean pass-heavy with Tennessee favored by double-digits, but the Titans have allowed the 10^th-most RB receiving yards, the 2^nd-most RB receiving TDs, and Swift may have Chase Daniel at QB. In the 6 games Daniel has started or played the majority of, he’s thrown 32.1% of his passes to running backs. Stafford for the season is at about a 20% target share for backs, and that’s only if you count gadget player and return man Jamal Agnew as a running back. Swift is the only back on this team likely to put up substantial receiving production, so he should still be a solid RB2 in a game that looks like it could get out of hand in Tennessee’s favor.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. Jax.): If I had any faith that Dobbins would see a handful of targets this week he’d be even higher on this list. Dobbins seems to have taken a firm grip on the lead back job in this committee as Mark Ingram has been mostly phased out in recent weeks. Dobbins has played more than 60% of the offensive snaps in 2 of the last 3 games he’s played. He’s also had 10+ carries in 5 of his last 6 games and found the end zone in each of his last 3. The Jaguars have allowed each of the last 3 lead backs they faced to reach 120+ rushing yards and 20+ fantasy points. Granted, those were 3 elite backs – Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook & Derrick Henry, but there have been just 2 games all year where the opposing lead back against Jacksonville failed to reach 11+ fantasy points. One of those games was against the Chargers without Austin Ekeler. If Dobbins is treated as the lead back early on in this one, I expect him to have a huge rushing day, and to possibly post a top-10 fantasy day. His lack of receiving usage is why I rank him below the other backs above this week.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 15: @Dal.): Aiyuk has been on a tear in recent weeks, with 100 receiving yards or a TD in 6 straight games, and this week he gets to face off with a Dallas defense that allows the 5^th-most WR points per game. Deebo Samuel is likely done for the season after injuring his hamstring on his first touch of the game last week, and in the 4 games he’s played without Samuel (counting last week) Aiyuk has totaled 48 targets and put up fantasy point totals of 18.6, 19.1, 16.2, and 16.9. Three of those four games came against defenses currently in the top-12 at limiting WR fantasy points. Again, Dallas is in the bottom five. George Kittle could return this week, and that would put a bit of a dent into Aiyuk’s ceiling, but it’s looking more likely that he returns next week. The rookie should be in line for 10+ targets and a borderline WR1 day.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 15: vs. Chi.): Jefferson gets a tough on-paper matchup this week after being limited to just 4-39 on 8 targets by the Bucs a week ago. Chicago allows the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but that’s not a death knell for Jefferson this week. In their last 5 games, the Bears have allowed 3 different receivers to reach 100 yards against them. The two teams that didn’t get a receiver to 100 against them in that span were Green Bay, who routed the Bears in the first half and didn’t need to throw, and the Texans who were missing all of their top-3 wide receivers last week. Jefferson put up 8 catches for 135 yards on 10 targets in his first meeting with the Bears and should be good for another solid day in this one. He’s still seen 8+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games, and that volume should be there again.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 15: @Ari.): Hurts made quite the impression in his first career start, knocking off a solid New Orleans team and making the offense look competent in a way Carson Wentz hasn’t in weeks. He didn’t put up gaudy passing numbers, with just 167 yards and a touchdown, but his 106-yard rushing day made him the QB10 for the week. That rushing upside is a huge advantage for Hurts in fantasy, and it should be there again this week. The Cardinals are a respectable QB defense, allowing the 13^th-fewest points per game to the position, but they’ve also allowed the 6^th-most QB rushing yards on the year. They’re unlikely to let Hurts run for another 100 yards, but if he gets into the 60-70 range he has a great chance to be a high-end QB2 this week, even if the passing numbers are muted again.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 15: @NO): Edwards-Helaire didn’t exactly have a banner day in week 14, finishing as the RB20, but there were plenty of positive signs for the rookie. He was on the field for 74% of the offensive snaps and logged 21 touches, the highest total he’s seen since the team added Le’Veon Bell. This week’s opponent, the Saints, allows the fewest running back points per game, but 4 of the 5 running backs they’ve allowed to run for 60+ yards have been guys that win with speed and agility rather than power -  David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Ronald Jones, and Aaron Jones. Josh Jacobs is the only power back to hit that mark. If the volume continues for CEH, I like his chances of posting another top-20 day even in a tougher matchup.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Sea.): Gibson was held out of practice on Thursday dealing with turf toe, so it seems unlikely we see him this week. If he does play, he faces a Seattle defense that ranks 11^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed only Wayne Gallman to run for 40+ yards against them since week 7. Gallman did go for over 100, so it’s not impossible for Gibson to have a good day if he suits up. Gibson’s true upside comes from getting into the end zone. He’s scored at least 1 touchdown in 8 of the 11 full games he’s played in, and Seattle has given up 11 RB rushing scores on the year. Keep an eye on the injury report here, but I see Gibson as more of a low-end RB2 or flex play if he plays and is close to 100%.

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 15: vs. NE): Ahmed has been practicing in a limited capacity this week and looks like he may be on track to return to the lineup. The Patriots have been struggling to defend the run this year. They rank 28^th in run defense DVOA and let Cam Akers run for over 170 yards a week ago. They don’t give up a ton of receiving production, but Ahmed could be in line for a nice day running the ball if he’s able to play. Salvon had 33 combined carries in the last two games he was healthy for with Myles Gaskin sidelined. He should see 15+ touches again if he plays and Gaskin doesn’t get cleared from the COVID list ahead of this game. That kind of volume would put the rookie on the flex/RB2 radar against this defense.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 15: @Den.): Moss was benched in week 13 after an early fumble against the 49ers, but the Bills didn’t carry over that punishment to week 14. Moss was right back to his usual role against the Steelers, playing about 60% of the offensive snaps. Against Pittsburgh, that role didn’t translate to many fantasy points, but the matchup this week is a bit more favorable. The Broncos rank 25^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 10^th-most running back points per game. They are also tied for 4^th in most rushing TDs allowed at 17. Moss’s upside comes from his role as the goal line back. Obviously, in this offense, Josh Allen is just as likely if not more likely than any of the running backs to score a short TD, but this week Moss has as good a chance as any to get in the end zone. Buffalo’s offense has been much more pass-happy this year than in years past, and with Denver missing their top 3 CBs again this week that should continue. The run volume might only be there if they get out in front early. I see Moss as mostly a flex option where you’re hoping for 50+ yards and a TD.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): Claypool has confusingly seen his snaps limited in recent weeks, giving way to James Washington at times and playing just 69 out of 128 snaps in the last 2 games (54%). Given that those games were the first two losses of the season for Pittsburgh, it would behoove them to get Claypool more involved, and this should be a good week to do that. The Bengals rank just 29^th in pass-defense DVOA, and the Steelers have an implied total of 27 points. Claypool’s likely defensive matchup would be 5’10” Darius Phillips. Claypool stands 6’4”, and I like the chances that Big Ben exploits that advantage in the red zone at some point and gets the ball to Claypool in the end zone. This should be a get-right spot for the entire offense that has struggled in recent weeks. Claypool is an upside WR3 for me this week.

WR Lynn Bowden, Jr., MIA (Wk. 15: vs. NE): Bowden has emerged at just the right time for a Dolphins team that has had limited weapons in recent weeks due to injuries. The team was already down to their 4^th-string running back last week and lost DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki to injury during the game. Bowden stepped in and filled the void admirably with 7-82 on 9 targets. Gesicki returned to practice Thursday, and Parker has been practicing in a limited capacity as well. It remains to be seen who will be active on Sunday, but Bowden is healthy and should be lining up in the slot again. New England allows the 3^rd-most yards per target on throws to the slot receiver, and I like the chances that Bowden sees another high-volume day. He should be in line for a solid WR3 kind of day in PPR formats.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 15: vs. SF): Lamb has been a floor option most weeks with Andy Dalton at QB, but this week is one where he could see a bump in production. Prior to last week, Lamb was averaging 7 targets per game since Dak went down, and I wouldn’t read much into the two targets he saw last week. The Cowboys were in the rare position of having a commanding lead for much of the day and Dalton was limited to just 23 attempts (he’s averaged 42 attempts in the 4 other full games he’s played). The 49ers aren’t going to be a pushover like Cincy was a week ago, so Dallas should be forced to throw a lot more. Lamb gets the most favorable matchup of the Dallas receivers, avoiding Richard Sherman and Jason Verrett in the slot, where he lines up for 85% of his snaps. Instead, he’ll face off mostly with Dontae Johnson, who has allowed a 104 passer rating on throws into his coverage, albeit in limited opportunities. If Dallas wants to stay competitive in this one, they’ll look Lamb’s way often. I like the odds that Lamb tops 60 receiving yards for just the 2^nd time since week 6.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Jeudy has been a bit of a disappointment in recent weeks on the stat sheet, but he’s still playing most of the snaps and should get a boost if Tre’Davious White follows around Tim Patrick this week. I expect Denver to have to throw quite a bit more than they have in recent weeks, and in the last 3 games where Drew Lock attempted 30+ passes, Jeudy averaged 10 targets and 77 yards per game. He should be in line for his best game since before the Kendall Hinton bowl this week even though Buffalo allows the 13^th-fewest WR points per game. He’s an upside WR4 this week.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 15: @Bal.): Shenault should be a floor PPR option even in a tough matchup this week. The Ravens secondary is stingy, ranking 11^th in pass DVOA, and allowing the 9^th-fewest WR points per game, but Shenault was targeted 11 times last week and should benefit from the return of Gardner Minshew at QB. Rookie teammate Collin Johnson seems to have fully gone back to the bench, and it looks like Shenault and DJ Chark will see the biggest boost from Minshew’s return. I’d expect Viska to see 8+ targets in a game where Jacksonville should be playing from behind as usual.

WR Michael Pittman, Jr., IND (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Pittman squares off with the Texans for the 2^nd time in 3 weeks, and as we learned in that first meeting it’s TY Hilton who has the best chance to cash in on this matchup. The Texans have been cooked by opposing WR1s in all 4 games without Bradley Roby, allowing 110+ receiving yards and a TD to each WR1 they’ve faced in those games. I tricked myself into believing that would be Pittman in the game two weeks ago, only to watch Hilton put up 8-110-1 on 11 targets while the rookie totaled 5-46 on 5 targets. This is still a bad pass defense, so there is upside for more for Pittman, but I’d expect similar results to the last time. The other WR2s to face Houston with Roby out are Darnell Mooney (2-22-1), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (0-0), and Chris Conley (7-52).

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 15: vs. Pit.): In 3 full games without Joe Burrow. Higgins has finished with exactly 5 catches and a yardage total between 44 and 56 yards. He hasn’t found the end zone in any of those games. This week he faces a Steelers’ defense that ranks 1^st in the league in pass defense DVOA and is in the top half of the league at limiting WR points. Higgins did torch this defense for 7-115-1 in his first meeting with them in week 10, but that was with Burrow under center. Counting on any more production from Higgins than what we’ve seen in the last few weeks is asking for trouble.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 15: @Min.): Kmet has now seen 7 targets in back to back games to go along with a snap share above 80% in that time, but his yardage totals have left something to be desired (39 per game). This week he faces a Minnesota defense that has allowed the 11^th-most yards to the position, but just 5 touchdowns to tight ends in 12 games. Kmet’s usage makes him an intriguing streaming TE1 if you’re searching for someone at the position this week. I’d expect him to see a healthy target number again this week and would be a helpful piece of your lineup if he finds the end zone.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 15: vs. NE): Tua had his best fantasy game of the year last week in a loss to Kansas City, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat against a defense that has held 4 of the last 9 QBs they’ve faced to zero total touchdowns and fewer than 10 fantasy points. The place to beat the Patriots has been on the ground. New England has allowed the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game on the year, and you can’t afford a bad game from a quarterback in the playoffs. Tua is no more than a low-end QB2 this week, even if he is missing Gaskin and Ahmed and has to have a pass-heavy game plan again. His weapons are banged up, and the Patriots under Belichick have always made life miserable on rookie QBs against them. Since 2000, 29 rookie QBs have attempted at least 15 passes against the Patriots in a game. 14 of them threw multiple interceptions, and just 7 threw multiple TD passes. Only 5 threw for 240+ yards. We all saw what this defense did to Justin Herbert. This is not a great spot for Tua.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): James Conner looks like he may not be active this week after being held out of practice Thursday. McFarland played just 25 total snaps in the last two games Conner was inactive for, playing behind both Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels. This game could be a blowout win for the Steelers, but I wouldn’t count on McFarland to get an extended run even if Conner sits and they win in a blowout. The Steelers have played down to their competition on several occasions this year, so there is no guarantee this is a blowout. You can’t rely on McFarland in season-long leagues. He’s no more than a dart throw in a DFS single-game showdown slate.

RB KeShawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 15: @Atl.): RoJo was added to the COVID list this week, so it seems likely he’ll miss this game, but that’s not a reason to trust Vaughn to play a lot. Leonard Fournette was inactive last week, and Vaughn still just saw 4 snaps and 1 rushing attempt while Shady McCoy played 16 snaps. I’d expect Fournette to be the guy to step into Jones’ early-down role this week, and McCoy to continue as the 3^rd-down back. Atlanta allows the 6^th-fewest RB points per game, so a limited role against them won’t lead to fantasy-worthy production.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 15: @LV): Kelley was a healthy scratch last week with Justin Jackson back from IR. There is no reason for him to be on your roster at this point. Even if Austin Ekeler sits tonight, it’ll be Jackson and Kalen Ballage doing most of the backfield work.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 15: @LAR): Even though Mims is likely to avoid the coverage of Jalen Ramsey, this isn’t a great spot to fire him up in fantasy lineups. The Rams allow the fewest WR points per game, and only Deebo Samuel and Tyler Lockett have topped 60 yards against them in the last 6 games. Mims is a desperation WR4 at best this week. He’d need to get into the end zone to return much value.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 15: @Ari.): With Jalen Hurts at QB the passing volume is going to be limited. Reagor has just 5 targets in the last two weeks (4 of those in Hurts’ 1^st start), and while Arizona isn’t a matchup to run away from (they allow the 14^th-most WR points), it also isn’t one to roll the dice on Reagor having a surprise big day. Obviously negative game script could inflate the passing volume with Arizona favored by 6.5, but there are safer options with your season on the line this week than Reagor.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 15: @NYG): Peoples-Jones has now played more than 50% of the offensive snaps 3 times this season, and in those games he’s put up 56, 92, and 74 yards, but he hasn’t had more than 5 targets or 3 catches in any of those games. The Giants’ defense hasn’t been very vulnerable to the big plays though. They’ve allowed the 4^th-fewest completions of 20+ yards for the season, and it seems likely that KhaDarel Hodge will return to the field this week and push DPJ back to a more limited role.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 15: @Ten.): Cephus’s two target trend continued last week. He’s now exactly 2 targets in 5 of his last 6 games, and for the year has 14 targets in two games against the Bears, and 13 in the rest of his games combined. Chase Daniel at QB would take away any limited upside that Cephus has this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 15: @NYG): Bryant may get one more week as the lead tight end if Hooper sits again, but it sounds as though Hooper is on track to play. The Giants allow the 8^th-fewest TE points per game and Bryant’s only big game of the year came against Cincinnati, who allows the 3^rd-most points to the position. I think you’re best looking for a higher upside option than Bryant even if Hooper sits.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Hamler had a huge game against the Panthers last weekend on just 3 targets, turning them into 86 yards and two touchdowns, and while I don’t expect a repeat of that performance this week he does have the most favorable matchup of the Bronco WRs against Taron Johnson in the slot. The Broncos are going to have to throw the ball a lot in this game to keep pace with a Buffalo offense that should shred their depleted secondary. The last 3 times that Drew Lock attempted 30+ passes, Hamler totaled 26 targets and 160 receiving yards on 14 receptions. He’s got some upside for deep leagues as a flex option.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 15: @Den.): John Brown was designated to return from IR this week, but if he sits another week Davis has a good opportunity for another productive day. Davis has 50+ receiving yards and/or a touchdown in 5 of the 6 games that John Brown has either missed or played less than half of the snaps due to injury, and the Broncos are without their top 3 cornerbacks and have another two that got banged up last week. He should have a great opportunity at another 50+ yard day if Brown sits again. Keep an eye on the injury report here.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. Jax.): The Ravens added receivers Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, and James Proche to their COVID list this week, and that leaves them with just Duvernay, Willie Snead, and Dez Bryant healthy on the roster for this week. They’re likely to add Chris Moore from the practice squad and use more 2-tight end and 2-running back sets to help cover up how shorthanded they are at receiver. Duvernay should still see an increased role this week from what we’re used to. He brings a speed element that Bryant and Snead don’t, and is the most likely candidate to replace what Brown does in this offense. The Jaguars allow the 8^th-most WR points per game and have allowed the 8^th-most completions of 20+ yards for the season. This could be a great spot for Baltimore to get their deep passing game connecting again, and Duvernay would be the likeliest beneficiary. He’s a great dart throw in DFS tournaments this week.

WR Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 15: vs. LAC): Henry Ruggs is going to be inactive this week on the COVID list, and that will get Edwards back into a starting role for the first time in weeks. I expect the Chargers standout corner Casey Heyward, Jr. to matchup mostly with Nelson Agholor, which leaves Edwards with Michael Davis. It’s not a high upside spot with the Chargers allowing the 11^th-fewest WR points per game, but Edwards costs just $400 for the TNF showdown slate on DraftKings. He should see at least a handful of targets as he has the easiest individual matchup of the Vegas receivers.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies and helps you advance to next week. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates tonight and on Saturday and Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player (that’s right, there are 2 Saturday games this week). If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at fantasy championship week. If you’ve survived this far, congratulations! That’s an accomplishment in and of itself, but I’m sure you’re not satisfied with second place. For me, the key to championship lineups is to not get too cute. If you roll the dice on a sleeper this week and it blows up in your face in a close loss, are you going to be able to live with that for the whole offseason? If not, you probably shouldn’t roll those dice. That’s not to say that a sleeper can’t help you win a championship. Last year in week 16 it was guys like Daniel Jones, Tajae Sharpe, Steven Sims, DeAndre Washington and Kaden Smith who put up big scores (mostly from people’s benches). There certainly will be some similar performances this year…but the chances of picking them ahead of time is slim to none. Play the reliable starters over the dart throw guys unless you’re comfortable with the consequences. With that in mind, most of this week’s sleepers are guys I wouldn’t consider outside of DFS and the deepest of leagues. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookies for the all-important week 16…

(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Herbert has gotten himself back on track in the last couple weeks after a rough day against the Patriots, and this week he catches a Denver defense that is without most of the top of its CB depth chart. The Broncos have coughed up 280+ passing yards and 20+ fantasy points to the opposing QB in each of the two games they’ve played with their corners sidelined, and I’d expect Herbert to extend that to three in a row. Herbert will be without Hunter Henry in this game, and possibly Keenan Allen who is a game-time decision. If Allen misses this one, I’d downgrade Herbert at least a little bit, but they still have enough other weapons that he should still be a really safe low-end QB1 this week against the Broncos’ depleted secondary.

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Hurts has exploded onto the scene in the last two weeks and made the Eagles look like a competent offense. While the fantasy production from his first start came mostly from his legs, he managed to add the passing element to that in game number 2. Hurts threw for 338 yards & 3 touchdowns, and ran for 63 yards and a score as well, showcasing his tantalizing ceiling. That ceiling should be in play again this week against the Cowboys. The passing yardage against Dallas has been limited due to teams being in positive game script. Only 3 teams in their last 11 games have thrown for 225+ yards against them, but 8 of 11 threw for multiple touchdowns. Dallas has also been shredded on the ground by the two true running QBs they’ve faced this season. They allowed 74 rushing yards to Kyler Murray and 94 to Lamar Jackson. Hurts should be in line for another day of strong rushing production and efficient passing, but know that there is always some risk when we only have a 2-game sample size to go off of. I’ve seen a lot of people debating between Herbert and Hurts this week for their championship. Herbert has the safer floor, but Hurts has the higher ceiling. Since both play in the late window on Sunday, I would suggest waiting until closer to kickoff to make that call. By then you should know if you need to swing for the fences with Hurts, or take the safer points with Herbert.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 16: @Pit.): Taylor has been on an absolute tear over the past 3 weeks with 4 total touchdowns and an average of just over 130 scrimmage yards per game, but he gets a rough matchup for championship week. The Steelers have allowed the 2^nd-fewest running back points per game, but they’ve had a couple of their more dicey performances in the last few weeks, giving up 12.8 points to JD McKissic in week 13 and 22.2 to Gio Bernard last week. Taylor seems to have found his groove in recent weeks, and I would count on his more consistent usage and improved recent play to push him to a solid fantasy day once again even in this tough matchup. I would view him as more of an RB2 than RB1 this week, but he should be in your lineup unless you have some studs ahead of him.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Dobbins found the end zone for the 4^th straight week last Sunday, and he should be in a great position to do it again during championship week. The Ravens have phased Mark Ingram completely out of the run game, and Dobbins has stepped in as the clear lead guy in the committee. He’s now carried the ball more than 10 times in 6 of his last 7 games, and this week faces a Giants’ defense that has allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game. New York has given up at least 11 fantasy points to an opposing running back in all but two games this season. Dobbins should be a safe bet to finish in the top-20 backs this week.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 16: @NO): Jefferson gets what looks like a tough matchup on paper against the Saints, but it’s one he should be able to thrive against. The Saints rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 10^th-fewest WR points per game, but they play man-to-man defense more often than most defenses and Jefferson has been exceptional against man-to-man. He’s averaging nearly 5 yards per route run against man-to-man defense, and no other player in the league averages even 4 yards. Add in that Jefferson has seen at least 8 targets in 5 of his last 6 games (average of 9.8 per game in that span), and he should be a safe WR1 or 2 this week in most formats despite a tougher matchup.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 16: @Ari.): Don’t overthink it with Aiyuk. He’s gotten into the end zone in 5 of his last 7 games, and had at least 5 catches and 73 yards in each of the last 6. He should be a sure bet for 10+ targets again, even with the return of George Kittle and the switch to CJ Beathard at QB. Aiyuk and Beathard haven’t had the best connection thus far, with Aiyuk catching just 3 of 8 targets from CJ for 49 yards on the season, but with a full week of practice together I expect they’ll have things more ironed out this week. Arizona isn’t a defense to avoid, allowing the 14^th-most WR points per game, so as long as the targets are there Aiyuk should be a safe WR2 for the finals.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 16: @LV): Tua managed to post a strong fantasy game last week despite the absence of most of his weapons thanks to two rushing touchdowns. He may get some of those weapons back this week (Mike Gesicki & DeVante Parker are practicing in a limited capacity), but we know that the backfield is getting healthier and the Raiders rank 31^st in run defense DVOA. Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida returned last week, running for over 200 yards against New England, and Myles Gaskin was activated from the COVID list this week. The Dolphins would be wise to ride their run game as far as it will take them this week. The pass defense is bad for the Raiders also, but I would expect limited passing volume. Tua should be a mid-QB2 this week unless they fall behind and he’s forced to throw a bunch.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Robinson has been as consistent a fantasy producer as there has been this season, but this week could be different. Many teams that are still alive and kicking owe their success to Robinson, but he’s battling an ankle injury that could keep him out this weekend against the Bears. Robinson typically is safe for double-digit points, but even if he plays this week I’d be surprised if the Jaguars give him his typical workload in a game that really doesn’t mean all that much for them. The Bears rank 5^th in run defense DVOA, but have been effectively run on in recent weeks. Robinson would be a reasonable floor flex play if he does give it a go, but he won’t be nearly as safe a play as he usually is. Obviously keep an eye on the injury report if you’re considering Robinson, and have other options ready in case he doesn’t play.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Week 16 should be an interesting one for the Detroit Lions. Due to COVID exposure they’re going to be without their interim head coach, all of their coordinators, and a few position coaches as well. It remains to be seen what kind of impact that’s going to have on their game plan for this week, but if they know what they’re doing they’ll get the ball into Swift’s hands early and often. The Bucs have been one of the toughest matchups for running backs, allowing the 3^rd-fewest points per game and ranking 1^st in run defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed the most running back receptions in the league and the 10^th-most running back receiving yards. It’s unlikely that Swift will put up a crooked rushing total in this tough matchup, but receiving work can get him to a productive day in PPR and half PPR formats. Swift should be a solid flex play in the fantasy finals.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. Car.): Keep an eye on the injury report if you’re considering Gibson for this week. There is still no guarantee that he will play this week, but if he does suit up he should be in line for an RB2 day. The Panthers rank 22^nd in run defense DVOA and allow the 8^th-most running back points per game. Before going down with injury, Gibson had scored 8 touchdowns in his last 5 healthy games, and Washington should give him a healthy workload again. If it sounds like Gibson will be close to 100%, he should probably be in your lineup unless you have studs ahead of him.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): After being benched for an early fumble in week 13, the Bills haven’t been shy about going back to Moss in the games that followed. The 13 carries Moss handled in each game is just one off of his season-high, and last week he matched his best yardage day with 81 yards on the ground. This week’s opponent, the Patriots, allowed over 208 rushing yards to Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida last weekend, and 171 to Cam Akers the week before. The Bills’ best game plan would be to pound the ball on the ground. There is a solid chance that Moss approaches the yardage total he posted last week again, but you never know if the touchdowns will come with the yards. Josh Allen is as likely as any Buffalo running back to get the goal line carries. Moss is a flex play with some upside this week if he manages to find paydirt.

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 16: @LV): Ahmed came back from injury in a big way last week, shredding the Patriots to the tune of 122 yards and a TD. It could have been an even bigger day if he hadn’t had another TD overturned on replay review. That performance came with Myles Gaskin still sidelined on the COVID list, and Gaskin is set to return this week. That throws a bit of a wrench into Ahmed’s value for this week. The Raiders rank 31^st in run defense DVOA and allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game, so there is an opportunity for another big game if his role is similar, but I would expect Gaskin to take a big chunk of that workload, and Matt Breida (12 carries for 86 yards last week) won’t be completely phased out either. I’d expect Ahmed to be in the ballpark of a dozen touches in this one, and that will make him a decent flex play in this plus matchup.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 16: @Hou.): Higgins has had a hard time putting up fantasy production since Joe Burrow went down for the season, but if there was a week to be hopeful for a big day for him, this is the one. The Texans have played without Bradley Roby in 5 games this season, and have allowed 21+ fantasy points to one opposing receiver in each of those games. If any Bengal is going to approach that mark it’s Higgins. Ryan Finley earned another start this week with his performance against the Steelers last week, and he knew to feed the ball to Higgins. Finley threw just 13 passes in that game, but 6 of them were directed at Higgins. I’d expect Cincy to try to keep the passing volume low if they can again, but I also expect Higgins to post his best receiving day since Burrow got hurt. He’s an interesting WR3 this week.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Claypool’s fantasy performance has taken a hit with the Steelers falling apart as a whole over the past 3 weeks, but he did get back to 8 targets Monday night for the first time since week 12. Indianapolis has allowed the 11^th-fewest WR points per game, but they’ve also allowed three 100-yard receiving games in the last 3 weeks. Claypool still has some boom-or-bust element to his fantasy outlook, but with Eric Ebron likely to be sidelined again Claypool should be a solid bet for another 8+ targets. He’s in play as a WR3 option if you need someone with some extra upside.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 16: vs. Phi.): By this point you pretty much know what to expect for Lamb without Dak Prescott around. Lamb has had 4+ receptions in 6 of his last 7 games, but yardage has been tough to come by. Last week was just the second time in that span that he’s topped 50 yards. The Eagles are a middle of the pack defense against receivers, allowing the 15^th-most points per game to the position, and they’ve allowed 5 double-digit fantasy days to wideouts in their past 3 games. Lamb should be safe for 7 or 8 points, but counting on much more has proven to be dangerous in the last couple months. He’s a flex option for deeper leagues where a safe floor may be better for your lineup than your other options.

WR Lynn Bowden, Jr., MIA (Wk. 16: @LV): Bowden has been just what the doctor ordered for a Dolphins team that has been beyond beat up at the skill positions over the last few weeks. He’s been the one constant in the lineup over the last 3 games, and as a result he’s totaled 17 catches for 174 yards on 20 targets in that span, and tallied 22 rushing yards to boot. That’s not league-winning production, but he’s been valuable for deeper PPR leagues. The Dolphins are getting healthier, but Bowden should remain involved against a defense that has struggled against slot receivers. Jamison Crowder, Keenan Allen and Scotty Miller each reached 19 points against Vegas from the slot since the Raiders’ bye week. Bowden should be good for in the ballpark of 5-60 this week in a good matchup, even if Gesicki and DeVante Parker return.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone has been playing coy about who will start at QB this week against the Bears, and it matters for Shenault. If the starter is Gardner Minshew again, Viska has some upside for the deepest leagues after being targeted 17 times in the last two games with Minshew under center. He was targeted just 7 times in the two weeks prior with Glennon. The Bears allow the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but have given up 7 double-digit fantasy days to opposing receivers in their last 5 games, and they’re missing corners Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine. Steer clear if Glennon starts, but if it’s the mustachioed one under center Shenault is a WR4/flex option in deep leagues this week.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 16: @Jax.): Kmet has taken over as the starting tight end in Chicago, playing every single offensive snap in week 15, but his fantasy production hasn’t been consistent since taking over the starting role. Kmet has totaled just 105 receiving yards in the last 5 games, all games in which he’s played 70% or more of the snaps. He does have a better than average chance to find the end zone this week. Jacksonville allows the 7^th-most TE points per game and has let a tight end score a touchdown in 4 of their past 5 games. The tight end pool is pretty thin, so if you’re scrambling for a Hunter Henry replacement you could probably do worse than Kmet. Just know that the floor is pretty low here.

Rookies to Sit:

RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Perine should return this week, but after being off for a few weeks he might not jump right back into a full-time role. Frank Gore and Ty Johnson have played fairly well in his absence. The Jets should still get Perine a significant share of the work this week, but they’re a 9.5-point underdog and the Browns allow the 8^th-fewest RB points per game. This isn’t a spot to view the rookie as a sneaky fantasy play.

RB Rodney Smith, CAR (Wk. 16: @Was.): Smith has seen an uptick in his usage in recent weeks, taking some of the passing down work from Mike Davis while we all wait to see if Christian McCaffrey ever comes back. Smith played 35% of the offensive snaps last week. CMC will be out again this week, so I’d expect Smith to be similarly involved against the Football Team, but this isn’t a great week to count on that sort of usage resulting in a productive fantasy day. Washington has allowed the 4^th-fewest running back receptions and 3^rd-fewest receiving yards. The upside isn’t all that high in this one.

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 16: @Det.): With Ronald Jones out, it was Leonard Fournette who handled the bulk of Tampa’s backfield work, handling nearly 70% of the offensive snaps. Vaughn and LeSean McCoy split the rest of the work. Jones will be out again this week, but I’d expect Fournette to get the bulk of the work again. There may be a bit more garbage time this week. Tampa was already favored by 9.5 points before it was announced that much of Detroit’s coaching staff would be out due to COVID exposure. That potential garbage time upside isn’t worth risking a possible goose egg in your championship lineup. Vaughn has reached 1 full fantasy point in just 2 of the 5 games where he got at least 1 touch.

RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 16: @GB): Evans made a splash in his first extended action of the season last Sunday, putting up 57 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, but much of that came with the Titans up multiple scores. This week’s game should be a much tougher one in Green Bay as a 3.5-point underdog. I don’t expect there to be much garbage time for Evans to do work, and would avoid him in any lineups this week.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 16: @Jax.): Mooney has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks, but his volume has been limited with the Bears playing with leads in the last two weeks. He’s averaged 3.5 targets per game in those two contests, and had only seen fewer than 4 targets once in the 10 games prior. This week the Bears are a heavy favorite in Jacksonville against a Jaguars team that has zero reason to win this game. Jacksonville is a bad pass defense, ranking dead last in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 8^th-most points per game to wide receivers, but the Bears should have limited passing volume. If you play Mooney anywhere, you’re hoping he gets in the end zone. He hasn’t reached 70 scrimmage yards in any game this year. I think Jimmy Graham or Cole Kmet are more likely to be the recipients of any ancillary passing scores this week.

WRs Jalen Reagor & Quez Watkins, PHI (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Reagor and Watkins both set season-highs for targets last week against the Cardinals, but neither player topped 50 yards and I wouldn’t expect them to repeat their target totals this week. I guarantee the Eagles don’t want Jalen Hurts throwing the ball 44 times if he doesn’t have to, and the Cowboys have allowed more rushing yards than any team in the league. The Cowboys also allow the 5^th-most WR points per game, but Reagor should see a few less targets this week and hasn’t posted a double-digit fantasy day all season. Watkins’ 3-40-1 line last week was the first real production he’s posted all year. Reagor may be worth a dart throw in a DFS tournament, but neither player should be trusted for your fantasy championship.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 16: @Pit.): Pittman has weekly upside, but this week he faces off with a Steelers’ defense that allows the 9^th-fewest WR points per game, and he’s seen his targets decline in recent weeks. He hasn’t caught for 50+ yards in any of the last 4 games, and has seen just 13 total targets in the last 3. You can’t count on a big uptick this week in your league finals.

WRs Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 16: @LAC): Jeudy and Hamler are both capable of solid days here, but we’ve seen enough overall struggling from Drew Lock and the Broncos’ passing game in recent weeks to steer clear of both this week in your lineups. Jeudy has caught just 4 of his 13 targets since Lock’s return from the COVID list 3 weeks ago, and Hamler hasn’t caught more than 2 passes in any of those 3 games either. The Chargers allow the 11^th-fewest WR points per game. If there is a blowup game from one of these two, let it happen from your bench.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): With John Brown set to return this week, Davis will return to being a part time player that shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineups. He’s only topped 50 yards in a game where Brown was healthy once all year. Even if Brown sits, Davis would be a dicey option in a matchup where the Bills would be wise to run more than throw. The Patriots will be without Stephon Gilmore, but they won’t lack for cornerback talent, and Davis has been held to fewer than 20 yards receiving in each of the last two weeks. He’s been able to find the end zone in 3 of his last 4 games, but you’d be praying for another TD if you play him anywhere this week.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 16: vs. Mia.): Ruggs is practicing this week and may be activated from the COVID list ahead of this game, but he’ll be impossible to trust in the fantasy finals. Ruggs did have two of his 3 best receiving yardage games of the season in the 3 weeks before being placed on the list, so he was trending in the right direction, but he’s topped 60 yards just twice all year and scored just 2 TDs on the year. Leave him sidelined against the defense that ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 16: @NYJ): DPJ has now topped 50 receiving yards in each of the 4 games where he’s played 50% or more of the offensive snaps, and this week the Browns face off with a Jets’ defense that is solid against the run but is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Jets are 29^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 7^th-most WR points per game. Peoples-Jones still hasn’t caught more than 3 passes in any game this season, so counting on him in the fantasy finals is a risky proposition. He has nice upside for DFS tournaments though and a reasonable price tag of just $3,700 on DraftKings.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Mims was quiet in week 15 as the Jets very unexpectedly played from ahead and were able to lean on the run game, and I wouldn’t expect that to be the case this week. The Browns have been in a groove on offense of late, and the Jets should go back to their usual hapless ways. That means they’ll be throwing a lot. The Browns have been a very vulnerable pass defense, ranking 25^th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 10^th-most WR points per game. They got back their top corner Denzel Ward from injury last week, and he should be shadowing Breshad Perriman in this game. That could open things up for Mims to have a nice day. There is still a low floor here. Sam Darnold doesn’t take a lot of deep shots and he typically leans on Jamison Crowder as his first option, but Mims’ downfield skill gives him more upside if he does see a few longer targets come his way. He costs just $3,600 on DraftKings and 70+ yards and a score isn’t a far-fetched stat line for the rookie.

WRs Marquez Callaway & Juwan Johnson, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Min.): The Saints will have to throw to someone other than Alvin Kamara and Emmanuel Sanders this Friday, and with Michael Thomas on IR and Tre’Quan Smith ruled out for week 16, Callaway and Johnson are the next men up. Callaway had a couple notable weeks earlier this season when Thomas was out, including an 8-75 line on 10 targets against the Panthers in week 7. He’s been on IR himself the past few weeks, but is set to return Friday. Johnson was the guy who served as the WR2 last week when Smith left with injury. He played 76% of the offensive snaps, but caught zero of his 4 targets. The Vikings do allow the 3^rd-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so there is upside to any receiver who sees targets in this one. After Sanders, I think Callaway is the most likely to have a useful fantasy game, and he costs just $200 on DraftKings for the Showdown slate for the game. Johnson is a little pricier at $2,200. I wouldn’t consider either for your finals though.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 16: @NYJ): Bryant doesn’t have huge upside this week, but he gets a great matchup. Bryant hasn’t seen more than 2 targets in any game that Austin Hooper was active for this season, but the Jets have given up 8 touchdowns to opposing tight ends in their last 6 games, and plenty of yards to go along with them. Austin Hooper is the better play, but Bryant is worth a dart throw as a cheap option if you play the showdown format for this game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies, and helps you bring home the league crown. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Christmas and on Saturday and Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player (that’s right, there are 3 more Saturday games this week). If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I will be back next week for those of you with week 17 title games or who will still be playing DFS. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.