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17
September

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2020 - Week 2

Week 1 is in the books and it taught us, well, nothing.

One week does not a whole season make – that being said, opening weekend gave us plenty of drama, and room for improvement after a .500 week

So let’s get at it!

Week 2 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – GREEN BAY over Detroit – On the bright side, the Lions won’t have the opportunity to blow a 17 point 4th quarter lead this week!

15 – TENNESSEE over Jacksonville – I said the Jags would only win one game this year – well the Panthers once won their first game and lost the rest…so I still can be right.

14 – PITTSBURGH over Denver – The Denver offense just isn’t good enough to do anything against this Steelers defense.

13 – TAMPA BAY over Carolina – I said I wasn’t buying the Tampa Bay hype…that doesn’t mean I don’t think they are a good team!

12 – Kansas City over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – The Chiefs are a great team, but the biggest thing we learned in that game was how disgusting their fans are. If you boo unity, you shouldn’t be allowed inside an NFL stadium!

11 – SEATTLE over New England – This will be the first real look at the post-Tom Patriots.

10 – San Francisco over NEW YORK JETS – The Jets offense was questionable at best before losing Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder to injury.

9 – ARIZONA over Washington – Arizona proved a lot last week. My BOLD PREDICTION for this is week is that even with Seattle and San Francisco, THE CARDINALS WILL WIN THE NFC WEST.

8 – DALLAS over Atlanta – The Cowboys are one bad call away from being 1-0, they’ll have a lot of anger to let out this week.

7 – Buffalo over MIAMI – It’s the home opener for the Dolphins but with no fans. So, you know, just another game.

6 – Baltimore over HOUSTON – David Johnson looked surprisingly solid in his Texan debut, but my goodness do the Ravens look good!

5 – Minnesota over INDIANAPOLIS – I think last week was more the Colts showing they won’t be good this year than that Jaguars showing they will be good.

4 – LAS VEGAS over New Orleans – The Michael Thomas injury is a huge shot of luck for the Raiders Vegas debut.

3 – CHICAGO over New York Giants – Mitchell Trubisky played 15 minutes of football that Bears’ fans having been waiting years for!

2 – CLEVELAND over Cincinnati – I feel that the Bengals are closer to being the team the Browns were supposed to be last year than the Browns are.

1 – PHILADELPHIA over Los Angeles Rams – Blowing a lead against Washington should give you something to play for. This game will tell us a lot about the 2020 Eagles.

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21
September

Statistically (in)Significant: Week 2

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

statistically insignificant header image

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

37 Completions

Thursday night, the Bengals unleashed their #1 overall pick in a prime-time game – though if you didn’t have NFL network handy, you struggled to find it. Broadcast rights aside, this Browns-Bengals matchup was better than it had any business being. In only his second game of his professional career, Joe Burrow attempted 61 passes, completing 37 of them for 316 yards and 3 TDs with zero interceptions. The 37 completions are a record for rookie passers. Now, perhaps, the Bengals would like to consider acquiring a defense so that their rookie’s arm doesn’t fall off by the end of the season.

50 years

Raheem Mostert, one of 49 (probably) players injured for San Francisco, recorded a feat that hasn’t been done in over 50 years. He became the first player in 50+ years to score a TD of 75+ yards in the first two weeks of a season. Last week, he had a 76-yard TD reception, and yesterday he opened the game with an 80-yard TD run where he was clocked at a blazing 23.09 MPH. Seriously. Get in your car and drive 23 mph and see if anyone could possibly keep up. Hell, Mostert would have been speeding on the street that I grew up on. Limited to only 10 touches since apparently injuries are more contagious than Covid-19 to the 49ers, Mostert still sits as this week’s RB14, and the RB4 on the season. Hopefully Mostert can stay on the field as he has the two fastest speeds clocked by ball carriers this season – and they’re the fastest regular season numbers since 2016.

75,000 Yards

Tom Brady became the second player, behind fellow quadragenarian Drew Brees, to reach the 75,000 passing yards mark. Brady has yet to really impress in a fantasy football sense this season, but he did lead his team to an impressive victory over the, admittedly lame, Carolina Panthers on Sunday. The question of whether Brady still “has it” is unresolved in my mind, but he does win games, so we can go ahead and give him credit for this one. He does need to stop throwing interceptions – that’s 4 games in a row including the playoffs last year. Nonetheless, we celebrate Brady’s 75,000 yards, a distance so damn far that it would take Raheem Mostert nearly 2 hours (111 minutes) running at full speed to cover all those passing yards. You can tack on another 17 minutes to include his playoff yardage.

60+ Fantasy Points

So far in this short season, 4 QBs are averaging 30+ fantasy points per game. Leading the pack is no surprise, it’s Russell Wilson, who has an amazing 82.5% completion rate to go with 9 passing TDs already. It’s the 3 players who also average 30+ per game that may have you surprised. In order, you have Josh Allen, Cam Newton and Kyler Murray. Between them they have 8 rushing TDs, obviously an invaluable asset to fantasy football QBs. Amazingly, Cam Newton has landed here with only 1 passing TD in 2 games so far this season. Last year’s MVP, Lamar Jackson sits just outside the top 10, just a few points ahead of 2020 Rookie of the Beginning of the Year Joe Burrow.

43.6 Fantasy Points

Aaron Jones is insane. This is the note that was my placeholder and I really can’t start this section any better. Since the start of last year, he has 13 games over 15 points (and 2 more games of 14.8 points). Two of those games are over 40 points, 8 of those are 22+ points or better. On Sunday, Jones was everywhere. He carried the ball 18 times for 168 yards, good for a 9.3 yards per carry average. He found the end zone twice on the ground and once more through the air, where he added 4 catches for 68 yards. His performance in Week 2 was so dominant over all other RBs that the difference between Jones and the RB2, Nick Chubb, is an entire Raheem Mostert – 17.8 points! If you take the highest non-QB, non-Jones scorer in Week 2, Calvin Ridley, you would need to increase his output by 65% just to reach Aaron Jones’s performance. This guy is insane, and the Packers are really, really good this year.

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24
September

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy 2020 - Week 3

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

I don’t know about you but I started to hurt just watching the games last week.

Whether it is due to the lack of preseason prep or poor field conditions, several teams saw key players go down for injury including superstars who are gone for the year.

Obviously this will have an impact on our picks. You need to keep up with the injury list, teams will be looking different starting this week!

Week 3 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – INDIANAPOLIS over New York Jets – Pretty safe to say the Jets are filling in nicely for the Jags in the “Tank for Trevor” role.

15 – ARIZONA over Detroit – It’s pretty much going to be a continuation of last week’s debacle in Green Bay for the Lions.

14 – PITTSBURGH over Houston – The Steelers are going to be the team to give the Chiefs and Ravens the most problems in the AFC this year.

13 – Tampa Bay over DENVER – Injuries are making an already bad season for the Broncos worse.

12 – SEATTLE over Dallas – Dak and the ‘Boys are going to find out that not every team regularly blows a lead.

11 – JACKSONVILLE over Miami – After my negative prediction in week 1, I would like to take full credit for the Jaguars looking some sort of relevant,

10 – PHILADELPHIA over Cincinnati – If you wanted to drop the Eagles a few spots on your list, I wouldn’t take it personally.

9 – ATLANTA over Chicago – Eesh…well think of it this way Falcons fans…at least it was just week 2! At least you didn’t blow that kind of a lead in the Super B…oh…

8 – Tennessee over MINNESOTA – Remember when I said it would be an entertaining battle all year between the Packers and Vikings? Yeah…battle’s over!

7 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Carolina – Justin Herbert better succeed, or apparently the Chargers will sick their doctor on him too!

6 – CLEVELAND over Washington – This game will happen…what else is there to say.

5 – BALTIMORE over Kansas City – We already get the Game of the Year and the Ravens are just happy that will be played on the East coast.

4 – BUFFALO over Los Angeles Rams – The Pats haven’t exactly gone away, but change is here. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE BILLS WILL WIN THE AFC EAST.

3 – NEW ENGLAND over Las Vegas – Cam has been a pleasant surprise for New England fans and will be just enough to contain Vegas.

2 – Green Bay over NEW ORLEANS – The Raiders showed and the Bucs almost showed that if you have an offense that can pile on the points, you can beat these Saints.

1 – NEW YORK GIANTS over San Francisco – A combination the 9ers players that were injured last night and those that weren’t but have the mentality of playing on the same exact field will be enough for the Giants to pull off the major upset.

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24
September

5 Replacement Players Who Can Succeed For You

Published in Fantasy Football / NFL

Dion Lewis (NYG) – Saquon is done for the season, and the Giants signed Devonta Freeman, but he won’t be ready yet. So, in Week 3 you can roll with Dion Lewis as a spot start. This is unlikely to last longer than a week or two, so if he has a big week, go ahead and put him on the trading block. Lewis found the end zone last week and had 14 touches against a tough Bears defense. This week, he’ll be facing the 49ers who have their own slew of injury problems. Week 1, they gave up double digit points to both Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. I expect Lewis to be in the 15+ touch range this week, and he’ll get work mostly based on the fact that he is the only 3^rd down back on the team, and I expect the Giants to find themselves in 3^rd down often.

Joshua Kelley (LAC) – While not replacing anyone directly with injury (yes, this is a stretch), the Chargers did lose their starting QB and will need to tweak their game script with Herbert taking the reins. He will lean on a strong run game for now. Both Kelley and Ekeler are tied with 35 carries on the season, good for 6^th most in the league. This week they will feast on the awful Panthers defense who are currently giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. With Kelley getting even more carries than Ekeler in Week 2, I’m not hesitant to ride with a rookie this early in the season. Ekeler has always succeeded as the second guy, and this really appears to be a 1A/1B situation they’re setting up for the Chargers.

Jerick McKinnon (SF) – McKinnon has 6 carries this season, his first since 2017. Finally healthy, he’s basically the last man standing in the 49ers backfield for now. Tevin Coleman has been put on the IR and Raheem Mostert is likely to sit this week, so it’s McKinnon all the way. He already has 2 touchdowns this season and a 55 yard run last week, showing that he’s got the talent to take advantage of the opportunities that Kyle Shanahan creates for this offense. The Giants have given up 2 good fantasy games already this season, one to backup Benny Snell and one to David Montgomery, so there’s nothing to fear in terms of this week’s matchup, aside from perhaps turf monsters, which the 49ers seem overly concerned with.

Tre’Quan Smith (NO) – Last week, with Michael Thomas out, Smith had 5 receptions on 7 targets for 86 yards, all respectable. There’s going to be plenty of extra volume to go around if Michael Thomas sits another week. The Saints play the Packers this week, who have probably been the most dominant team in the NFC. However, if there’s one thing that they don’t do incredibly well, it’s limit WRs. The Packers are giving up the 9^th most points to opposing WRs. While the Saints will surely lean on Alvin Kamara for a majority of their offense, they will still need to throw the ball a lot to keep up with Aaron Rodgers. I expect the Saints to play very well and clean up their sloppy play from Monday night. They are 10-1 following a loss since 2017, so I expect lots of fantasy fireworks in this game from both sides. Smith is a good option to slide in your lineup if you’ve been bitten by the injury bug.

Dalton Schultz (DAL) – Going in to last week’s game, Schultz had 14 career receptions. He added 9 more on Sunday on 10 targets and turned that into 88 yards and 1 TD. He did fumble once, but it seems like the Cowboys will be sticking with him due to Blake Jarwin’s torn ACL. This week is a big game against Seattle, one that could very well mirror last week’s script where Dallas finds themselves playing catchup. The Seahawks defense has been stout against the TEs so far this year, but they also haven’t faced much high profile competition yet. Dak Prescott is playing very well this season, so you need to trust in Dak to get the ball to the TE. The top players at TE have been so random this year (Smith, Fant, Gesicki, Reed, Hockenson all in the top 10), why not Schultz too?