Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.

4 Games with 100+ Rushing Yards

Last week Lamar Jackson played on Monday night, so I didn’t have my usual opportunity to gush about his absurd statistical season he’s having this year. Allow me to quickly remedy that by pointing out that Jackson now has 4 games with at least 100 rushing yards, a feat that has not been done by any QBs in the history of the league. Jackson’s season total is now up to 977 rushing yards and he could pass Mike Vick’s single season record of 1,039 yards next week. Jackson’s opponent next week, the Buffalo Bills, have given up 109 rushing yards to opposing QBs all season, though Jackson has the ability to go ahead and double up their total on the season by the end of the game. Now 50 fantasy points ahead of the field, Jackson has wrapped up the unofficial Fantasy MVP award for this year, and is the front runner for the actual MVP award, and it’s not even really close.

2 TDs and a Blocked Kick

Taysom Hill had a hell of a game on Thursday night. This may be the first instance I’ve seen of a third string QB outscoring a starting QB (who played the entire game) in fantasy scoring. Hill had 16.50 points thanks to a rushing and a receiving TD, while Drew Brees put up only 11.26 points, his lowest effort of the season. Hill even blocked a punt early in the game, which probably gave him even more points in leagues that feature IDPs. Maybe we could make a special flex position for guys like Hill who are only QB eligible, but never actually play QB. Meanwhile, Hill’s teammate Michael Thomas finally dropped a pass. He had a streak of 198 receptions over 22 games without dropping a pass, just an incredible stretch for him. Thomas had only 6 receptions on Thursday, but he’s still on pace to break the single season receptions record – as long as he doesn’t drop any more passes.

27.90 Fantasy Points

If you had DeVante Parker as the WR1 for the week, then congratulations, you ought to go play the lottery. The 2015 pick has been a bust for years before actually emerging as a solid WR this season. He has at least 91 yards and 6 receptions in each of the last 3 games and is on pace for a really respectable season of 70 receptions and 1100+ yards. Parker finished with the 3^rd most points overall for Week 13 and has the 3^rd most points at WR over the last 4 weeks. Props also go to his teammates Jason Sanders and Matt Haack for executing a very strange play on 4^th down for a touchdown. It was apparently a fake FG, though it did not look like any fakes I’ve ever seen. It did, however, remind me of that awful 4^th down trick play that the Colts tried back in 2015.

25 Fantasy Points in the Last 4 Weeks

The New England Patriots D/ST have not put up points lately, only 25 points in the last 4 weeks, but are still 45 points ahead of 2^nd place. The pace at which they were scoring early in the season obviously could not be sustained, though they are still doubling up the 10^th highest scoring D/ST. That’s a hell of a head start. The Patriots have yet another tough matchup next week when they host the Kansas City Chiefs, but their prospects of being the top D/ST returns in Week 15 and 16 against the Bills and Dolphins. Hopefully the team is healthier, not in an IR sense, but mostly healthy enough so they can all travel in the same enclosed space without worrying about disease spreading rampantly. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a team taking two planes because so many of its players are ill.

25.28 Fantasy Points per Game in the Last 4 Weeks

Derrick Henry is crushing it at RB lately, averaging 25.28 points per game over his last 4 games. This makes him the top RB during that time period and second to only Lamar Jackson. It would be easier to count the games this year that Henry does NOT have a touchdown; that would be 3. He’s scored 11 TDs total, just one off his career high he set last year. He’s already set new career highs for rushing and receiving yards. Over the last 3 weeks, Henry has 496 yards rushing and 5 TDs. He’s great at putting up tons of points in bunches, and he’s currently in the midst of one of his best streaks of his career. Meanwhile, the Titans have won 5 of their last 6 games and are in the wild card hunt, thanks to Ryan Tannehill. He’s a top 10 QB over the last 4 weeks and leads the league in yards per pass attempt at 9.2y/a since Week 5. The Titans still have 2 games against the Texans which will go a long way to deciding the division winner.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you were lucky enough that you get to take the week off, but if you made the playoffs and have to play this week, it’s hard to not put extra weight into every lineup decision you make. This year’s rookie crop has felt more volatile than most other classes, but that may just be because there are so many of them that have been fantasy contributors this year. We head into week 14 with 7 rookie QBs slated to start (if Daniel Jones is able to play). There are 3 rookie RBs among the top-20 in PPR points, 6 WRs in the top-43, and countless other skill players that have been useful as spot starters when injuries opened the door, and plenty more who are likely to do damage in the fantasy playoffs. Let’s dive in and talk about what to do with your rookies this week…

Rookies to Start:

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): The Giants have done a nice job of limiting RB production in recent weeks, but I’m betting on Sanders’ usage and the fact the Eagles are favored by 8 and a half points here. Sanders has seen 40 carries and 14 targets in the last 3 weeks and has averaged about 80 scrimmage yards per contest, and the Eagles lost all those games. I expect the Eagles to run a bit more this week if they play from ahead as expected. There is a chance that Jordan Howard returns this week, and if that happens Sanders gets a slight downgrade and would be closer to a borderline option. If Howard sits again, Miles should be a solid RB2.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Montgomery came through for fantasy players who trusted him enough to start him last week on Thanksgiving, and I like his chances to return value again this week. The Cowboys’ defense has been banged up, missing their starting nose tackle Antwaun Woods and their defensive leader in linebacker Leighton Vander Esch this week. Montgomery continues to see consistent usage with 15+ touches in 6 straight games. His production hasn’t always matched that usage, but Mitch Trubisky has been playing better of late and it is making the whole offense better. Dallas isn’t a defense to fear, ranking 17^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and allowing the 15^th-most RB points per game. Montgomery should be a useful RB2 this week and is a reasonable $5,100 on DraftKings.

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): You can’t sit a player with Jacobs’ locked-in usage. He’s averaging 88 yards per game on the ground and has only been held under 70 three times in 12 games. I’d be nervous to roll him out in DFS lineups this week though. The Raiders have gone in the tank as a team the last couple weeks, losing by a combined score of 74-12 in their past 2 games. It was a problem for Jacobs against the Jets, but he bounced back with a 100-yard day in a blowout loss against Kansas City. The Chiefs rank 30^th in run defense DVOA. The Titans rank 4^th. If the Raiders continue the trend of getting blown out, this could be a disappointing fantasy day for Jacobs. Oakland is a 2 and a half-point underdog though, so if they keep it competitive Jacobs should see enough work to be just fine.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Murray had been playing at an improved level recently, but week 12 was a bit of a hiccup. He was able to salvage his day with a rushing score, but he gets a rough matchup again this week. The Steelers have been one of the best pass defenses in the league since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick. They’ve held 7 of the 10 QBs they’ve faced since the trade to fewer than 200 passing yards, and Murray has thrown for fewer than 250 in 5 of his last 6 games. He’s been able to keep his fantasy numbers up with touchdowns and rushing yards (he has 9 total TDs in his past 4 games and averaged 42 rushing yards per week in them), but I’d be hesitant to trust him in this matchup as a QB1. The Steelers rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA.

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. LAC): I learned my lesson with Minshew early in the season. If he’s starting, he’s in play as a QB2 even in tougher matchups. The Chargers allow the 7^th-fewest QB points per game and just got Derwin James back last week, but they also rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. The Chargers have allowed at least 1 passing TD to every QB they’ve faced except Mitch Trubisky. The reason they rank so highly at limiting QB points is because they are also bad against the run and often are playing from behind. I wouldn’t expect Minshew to approach 300 yards, but he usually finds his way to the middle of the QB2 ranks.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): I’d lean towards playing Singletary this week, but it’s worth noting that the Ravens allow the 7^th-fewest PPR points to opposing RBs. With that said, the best way to attack the Ravens’ defense is with the ground game. Baltimore just allowed Raheem Mostert to run wild last Sunday, and they’ve struggled to contain the run game in other contests as well. Baltimore ranks just 25^th in run defense DVOA. It’s not an ideal matchup, but it isn’t one to run away from either if Singletary would usually be in your lineup. He’s the undisputed lead back for the Bills. He’s had at least 16 touches in each of the past 3 games and averaged 98 scrimmage yards and 13.5 PPR points per game in that stretch.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Mattison became a hot waiver wire commodity this week after Dalvin Cook left Monday night’s game with a shoulder injury. It sounds as though Dalvin is likely to play this week, but I would expect a lot of Mattison. The Vikings are favored by 2 touchdowns against the hapless Lions who allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game. The biggest surprise from Monday’s game was how involved Mattison was in the passing game. The rookie actually tied for the team lead with 4 catches and turned them into 51 yards. I’d expect Mattison to handle most of the work this week even if Cook plays, and I think it’s likely he out-produces Dalvin. I’d be willing to consider him as a flex even if Cook is able to go, and he’ll likely be a steal at his DraftKings price of just $4,500.

RB Benny Snell Jr., PIT (Wk. 14: @Ari.): The Cardinals have been a better run defense than pass defense this year, but the Steelers are likely to lean on the ground game as usual since Devlin Hodges will be making just his 3^rd pro start. Snell has totaled 37 carries in the last 2 weeks and is likely to continue to see a healthy workload in this one with the Steelers favored by 2 and a half on the road. There is a chance that James Conner returns this week, and if he does that will certainly cut into Snell’s opportunities, but Mike Tomlin openly said that Snell has earned the right to stay in the rotation even when Conner comes back. The Cards allow the 9^th-most running back points per game and rank 16^th in run defense DVOA. Snell offers little as a receiver. He has just 3 catches on the year, so he’s a much better option in non-PPR formats. If Conner is out, I’d consider him a solid flex option outside of full-PPR leagues, but he is a bit dicier in PPR.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 14: @LAR): Metcalf has become an integral part of the Seahawks passing attack as the year has gone on. He’s averaged 7.7 targets, 4.7 catches, and 61.5 yards per game in his last 6 games. The 61% catch rate in those games is a 9% improvement on what he did in the first 6 weeks of the season. He’s developed a troubling fumbling habit with 3 fumbles lost in the past 6 games, but overall the arrow is pointing up for DK. This week’s matchup could include Metcalf squaring off with Jalen Ramsey, but my guess is that he will cover Tyler Lockett a fair amount as well. The Rams are a middling pass defense, allowing the 14^th-fewest points per game to wide receivers. They’ve let other big physical receivers have success against them this year (Mike Evans, Auden Tate, Miles Boykin, and Metcalf himself in the first meeting with the Rams). DK is in play as a WR3 this week.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 14: @Phi.): Slayton gets a plus matchup this week against the Eagles, who allow the 5^th-most WR points per game, but he also is likely to have a new QB under center and a more crowded pass catching group this week. Slayton didn’t record his first catch of the year until week 3, after the team had already made the switch to Daniel Jones. It remains to be seen if he’ll have the same connection with Eli. It’s also possible that Evan Engram and Golden Tate return this week. Slayton has had some productive games with Golden Tate in the lineup, but all 4 games where he saw more than 5 targets came with Evan Engram sidelined. If Engram and Tate both return, Slayton is a volatile WR3/flex option. If one or both sit, he becomes a much safer play.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 14: @NO): Samuel can’t be disregarded as a fantasy option after posting his 4^th straight game with 13+ PPR points last week in a less than ideal matchup in rainy Baltimore. He gets another difficult matchup this week in the Big Easy, but at least the weather won’t be an issue. It’s possible that Samuel draws the shadow coverage of Marshon Lattimore, the Saints’ best cover corner. New Orleans ranks an impressive 9^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game. The bigger concern for Deebo is his target share. With George Kittle back on the field, Samuel was targeted just 6 times in the past 2 weeks. I’d look for him to be a bit more involved this week, but he’s still just an upside WR3 option with all the 49ers’ main receiving weapons healthy.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Brown gets the unenviable opportunity to square off with TreDavious White’s shadow coverage this week. White has been a tough matchup for most of the receivers he’s faced, and the ones who have put up decent fantasy days against him have gotten there on volume rather than big plays. The Ravens are the run-heaviest team in the league, and the Bills rank 22^nd in run defense DVOA. That’s where they’re likely to attack Buffalo. I don’t expect big volume for Brown, so you’re hoping he cashes in a big play or 2 if you start him. The Bills have allowed the 9^th-fewest WR points per game and have given up just 3 pass plays of 40+ yards all year. Brown’s upside keeps him in consideration, but I’d have a hard time pulling the trigger this week.

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 14: @Phi.): It appears that Evan Engram may return this week, but with the Giants playing to improve their draft position I wouldn’t expect them to push Engram back before he’s ready. If Engram doesn’t play, Smith should have plenty of opportunity again. He’s been targeted 14 times in the last 2 weeks and finished as the PPR TE4 and TE10 in those games. The Eagles aren’t an ideal matchup for tight ends, allowing the 9^th-fewest PPR points to the position per game, but they did give up 52 yards to Ben Watson in week 11 and a 5-79-1 line to Mike Gesicki last Sunday. No matter who is at QB, the Giants will keep their tight end involved. Smith will probably be a lower end TE1 this week if Engram is held out again. If you’re thinking about playing Engram, you should have Smith as a fallback option just in case.

Rookies to Sit:

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 14: @Min.): Blough surprised us all on Turkey Day by throwing 2 first quarter touchdowns in his first NFL start. After tallying 131 yards and those two scores on his first 6 passing attempts, he managed just 149 yards and a pick on his other 32 attempts. I wouldn’t bank on a repeat with your season on the line. The Vikings rank just a middling 14^th in pass defense DVOA, but Blough’s best shot at a decent fantasy day will come from piling up stats in garbage time. The Lions are a 13-point underdog in this game and have an implied total of just 15 points.

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Lock’s NFL debut was remarkably similar to David Blough’s. He put up the majority of his production in the 1^st quarter, when he completed 9 of 13 passes for 73 yards and 2 scores. He completed just 9 of 15 for 61 yards and an interception the rest of the game. The game plan for Lock is clearly to dink and dunk as evidenced by his sub-5 yards per attempt average. Unlike Blough, Lock gets a favorable matchup this week. The Texans allow the 6^th-most QB points per game and rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA. Lock could produce a nice day, but the conservative game plan will likely keep him from cashing in on a good matchup. I wouldn’t look at Lock as anything more than a desperation QB2 this week.

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 14: @GB): There’s nothing to be excited about with Haskins this week, and likely for the rest of 2019. Through 4 starts, he’s averaging just 15 completions for 165 yards per game and has failed to throw a TD pass in 3 of them. The floor here is miserable, and we just haven’t seen any sort of ceiling yet, especially facing a Green Bay defense that allows the 9^th-fewest QB points per game.

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 14: @Phi.): I mention Jones here just to make sure you’re aware that it’s highly unlikely that he plays this week. If he does get the chance to start, the Eagles aren’t as enticing a matchup as they appeared to be last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick shredded them for 365 yards and 3 scores, but no other QB had reached 250 yards or 3+ touchdowns against the Eagles since Kirk Cousins in week 6. Jones has been a turnover machine this year with 11 interceptions thrown and 9 fumbles lost in his 10 starts. He’d be no more than a low end QB2 if he does end up starting.

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 14: @NE): It was nice to finally see Thompson get his opportunity last week with the Williamses banged up, and he made good on it by putting up 44 yards and a TD on 11 carries, but I’m not sold that it was more than just a 1-week flash in the pan. Much of Thompson’s work came with the game already out of hand, and the team signed Spencer Ware this week to add depth to their backfield. Head coach Andy Reid is really comfortable with Ware, and LeSean McCoy still figures to be the lead back if Darrel and Damien are both out. On top of that, the Patriots allow fewer RB points per game than any other team in the league. It all adds up to Thompson being a bit overhyped this week. I’d let someone else take that risk on Darwin.

RB Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 14: @NYJ): After Kalen Ballage got hurt last week, it was the Patrick Laird show for Miami. Laird played 60% of the offensive snaps to Gaskin’s 22%. Laird is also clearly the guy the Dolphins prefer as a receiving back, out-targeting Gaskin 14 to 4 over the past 4 weeks. Gaskin is going to see more work going forward than he was seeing with Kalen Ballage healthy, but Laird is the Dolphin back to consider for fantasy purposes.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 14: @Chi.): Pollard has teased fantasy upside at times this season but has only turned in 2 useful weeks on the year. I wouldn’t be confident he makes it 3 this Thursday. He just doesn’t play enough to consider in any format this week with so many other options available. It doesn’t help his cause that he was also hit with a questionable tag this week. His status appears genuinely in doubt.

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 14: @Min.): The Detroit backfield has become the Bo Scarbrough show of late, and that has relegated Johnson to fantasy irrelevance. He continues to split 3^rd down work with JD McKissic, rendering both useless for fantasy purposes. There may be a little more work for the 3^rd down duo this week with the Lions a heavy underdog, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration for either.

RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Henderson managed to get a handful of carries in last week’s blowout win, but I don’t expect him to see any work in what should be a closer game this week. Henderson totaled just 11 offensive snaps played in the 3 games prior to week 13.

WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Adam Thielen’s status seems to be uncertain once again this week, and Johnson continues to play a significant role in the offense with him out, but the Vikings have begun to lean even more heavily on 2-TE sets lately than usual. Both Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith played 85% of the offensive snaps last Monday while Bisi played just 56%, his lowest share since week 6. He’s even begun to split some of the WR2 snaps with Laquon Treadwell. With Minnesota favored by 2 touchdowns this week, I’d expect similar personnel usage as the Vikings lean heavily on the run game. You could make an argument that Johnson is a sneaky upside DFS option. The Lions allow the 7^th-most WR points per game, Stefon Diggs is likely to be shadowed by Darius Slay, and Johnson’s price tag is just $3,700 on DraftKings. He’s seen similar situations several times in the last few weeks though and hasn’t reached 45 receiving yards in any game this season. The last time the Vikings faced Detroit, Bisi put up 4-40-1 on 8 targets. It was his best fantasy game of the season, but without the TD it wouldn’t have been very useful.

WRs Terry McLaurin & Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 14: @GB): Haskins has torpedoed the value of any receivers that he throws to with his limited passing production. McLaurin’s 2 catches for 8 yards last week should be all you need to see to know you can’t trust him with your season on the line. Harmon has shown some value as a low upside PPR target with 11 catches for 147 yards over the last 3 weeks, but there are safer options out there for this all-important week.

WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 14: vs. KC): With the Patriots back at full strength at wide receiver last week, N’Keal Harry saw his snap share drop precipitously. Meyers still played 70% of the snaps and drew 7 targets against Houston, but I think it’s likely New England was easing Mohamed Sanu back from what was originally supposed to be a multi-week injury. I’d expect Sanu to play a bit more this week. If you want to roll the dice on Meyers’ usage continuing this week, keep in mind that the Chiefs rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game. The only place I’d be considering Meyers this week would be in DFS tournaments, where he’ll cost just $3,500 on DraftKings.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 14: @NE): Mecole failed to see a single target in a matchup against one of the most burnable secondaries in the league last week. I’d look for the Chiefs to try and get him more involved this week, but I’m not confident he finds a way to fantasy relevance against a Patriots defense that has allowed just 2 offensive touchdowns in 5 games at Gillette Stadium. Hardman will need a touchdown to be fantasy relevant, and he’s not a great bet to find one.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): Arcega-Whiteside did get into the end zone for the first time in his career on Sunday, but he saw his snap count cut in half with the returns of Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. He split WR3 duties with Greg Ward and was targeted just twice. With fantasy seasons on the line, there’s no reason to read into that TD that his usage is going to increase. He’s caught just 5 passes all year and shouldn’t be on your radar this week.

WRs Andy Isabella & KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Isabella & Johnson continue to be afterthoughts in the Cardinals’ passing game. Isabella seemed to be breaking out with back-to-back strong games a few weeks ago, but he’s tallied just 1 catch for 6 yards on 5 targets over the last 2 weeks. Johnson didn’t play a single snap in the loss to the Rams. Both should be afterthoughts for you too as you consider fantasy options this week.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Like his teammate Olabisi, Irv’s best fantasy game of the year came in the Vikings’ first meeting with Detroit. He’s trended towards being a full-time player over the last few weeks, seeing his snap share climb from 61% to 74% to 81% to 85% over the last 4 games. He’s been targeted at least 3 times in 6 straight contests, but I can’t recommend him with your season on the line. As long as he’s splitting the role with Rudolph, he’s shaky as anything more than a TE2 for a season long league, and just hasn’t shown the ceiling to warrant using him in a DFS tournament this week with bigger upside options at similar prices out there like OJ Howard, Kaden Smith, and Jonnu Smith.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Knox is seeing the most extensive playing time he’s seen all year lately. He’s played more than 70% of the offensive snaps in 3 straight games after only hitting that mark once prior to week 11, but it isn’t translating to fantasy production and the Ravens have been wiping out tight ends. Baltimore has allowed the 4^th-fewest PPR points to the position per game, and since week 4 they haven’t allowed any tight end to reach 35 yards against them and have given up just 1 touchdown to the position. I wouldn’t hate Knox as an option in a league that requires you to start 2 tight ends, but I would look for better options if considering him as a TE1.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Fant had shown flashes of consistent production with Brandon Allen under center and Jeff Heuerman sidelined, but Heuerman’s return and the change to Drew Lock have made Fant a less than exciting option. Fant did drop a touchdown last week, but it was one of just 3 targets he saw from rookie Drew Lock. Heuerman, meanwhile, drew 5 targets despite playing 13 fewer snaps than Fant. Noah is still the better fantasy option of the two in Denver, but this week’s opponent hasn’t been particularly giving to tight ends. They’re in the top half of the league at limiting tight end points and have given up just 3 tight end scores all year. With other options emerging like Mike Gesicki, Jack Doyle, and Jacob Hollister, I wouldn’t be inclined to take a chance on Fant this week.

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): With Hunter Renfrow out last week, Moreau didn’t really see a big bump in playing time. He still played his usual amount, about half the offensive snaps, but Keelan Doss got on the field for 55% of the offensive snaps after not playing since week 7. Neither of them will be useful fantasy options as long as Darren Waller is commanding 30% of the targets like he did last week. If you play Moreau it’s with a hope & a prayer that he finds the end zone. The Titans have given up 6 tight end scores in 12 games this year.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 14: @Ari.): The Steelers have certainly called a conservative game plan with Hodges under center. He’s averaged just 20.5 passing attempts and 172 passing yards per start in the 2 games he’s gotten the nod, but he’s shown a willingness to take shots down field as evidenced by his 4 completions to James Washington of 30 or more yards in the last 2 weeks. He’s averaging a healthy 8.7 yards per attempt on the year. This week he takes on a Cardinals’ defense that is hemorrhaging QB points at a rate rarely seen. For the season they’ve given up a full 3 points more per game to opposing QBs than any other team in the league, and in the last 5 weeks they’ve given up an insane average of 379 passing yards per game. They’ve also given up 14 passing scores in those games and given up 26.3 fantasy points per game to QBs. Hodges is a little pricier in DFS than I would’ve expected given his limited production so far ($5,900 on DraftKings), but this is a great week to consider him as a lower priced cash-game option and a sneaky QB2 in leagues that let you start 2. Don’t count on him to approach 380 yards, but he should be in line for the best passing day of his young career.

RB Patrick Laird, MIA (Wk. 14: @NYJ): With Kalen Ballage going on IR, the backfield in Miami is left to Laird and Myles Gaskin. As mentioned under Gaskin above, Laird is the guy who saw the bulk of the playing time after Ballage went down. The Jets have been a solid run defense this year, ranking 2^nd in run defense DVOA, but they have allowed an opposing back to tally 4 or more receptions in 10 of their 12 games this year. Laird hasn’t been much more efficient that Ballage was as a runner, but he has topped 40 receiving yards in 2 of the last 3 games. He’s worth consideration in deep PPR leagues if you’re struggling for a running back this week.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 14: @Oak.): The Raiders have been one of the most burnable pass defenses downfield in the league, giving up 56 passes of 20+ yards, 24 of them going for 30+. The Titans have completed 14 passes this season of 30+ yards, and 6 of them have been to AJ Brown. Khalif Raymond and Jonnu Smith each caught 2, and no other Titan caught more than 1. Brown has been getting more consistent usage since the Titans made the switch to Tannehill at QB. He averaged 3.8 targets per game in Mariota’s starts, and 5.2 per game in Tannehill’s. Brown still doesn’t have a safe floor, but this looks like a spot where a smash game is possible. He’s a nice DFS tournament option and an upside flex play in deep leagues.

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 14: @TB): Campbell got in a full practice on Wednesday and looks on track to return this weekend in Tampa. TY Hilton said this week that he may be done for the year, and Campbell has been heavily involved whenever he’s been on the field and Hilton hasn’t. In the two games Campbell played with Hilton sidelined, he’s totaled 13 targets and 3 rushing attempts. And turned them into 10 catches and 105 scrimmage yards. The efficiency isn’t ideal, but the Buccaneers allow a full 5 more PPR points to wide receivers per game than any other team in the league. Campbell is practically free in DFS ($3,200 on DraftKings) and could be walking into a big role against easily the worst defense in the league against the position. If you can stomach playing a guy fresh off missing a month with an injury in your fantasy playoffs, Parris could be a really nice option in deep PPR leagues.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 14: @Ari.): Johnson has been disappointing in recent weeks, coming up short of 30 receiving yards in 4 of his past 5 games. Granted, he did leave a game in the middle of that stretch concussed and bleeding from his ears, but those numbers aren’t going to help fantasy owners. This is as good a spot for him to get back on track as he’s had in a while. The Cardinals have been handing out receiving yards lately like they’re candy on Halloween. The Steelers still aren’t a high volume passing attack, and Johnson is likely to be the 3^rd-best fantasy option in this passing game this week behind James Washington and Vance McDonald, but he costs just $4,300 in DraftKings and has tied Washington for the team lead in targets over the last two weeks. I’m not sure where I would use Johnson this week, but I think this is a nice bounce-back opportunity for him. There is still a chance that JuJu Smith-Schuster could return this week, which would make everything written above irrelevant.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.

43 Yards from Scrimmage

On Sunday, Alvin Kamara put up 43 total yards, while his team put up 46 total points – to call this a disappointment is a massive understatement. Kamara’s entire season has been a flop, really. He’s only scored 2 TDs on the year, both of them in Week 3. He’s only averaging 8.1 points per game since the Saints came off the bye and he returned from injury. During this time, the Saints have put up at least 26 points in 4 games, and they’re just not using Kamara. He needs to remain on your bench if you don’t want to be disappointed again through the fantasy playoffs. Meanwhile, the rest of the Saints were feasting in their loss to the 49ers. Drew Brees led the week at QB with 40 points, and Michael Thomas added 11 receptions to his amazing season total. Thomas now has 121 catches, which is almost 30 more than the 2^nd highest total, to go along with a league leading 1,424 yards. All these crazy numbers, and the Saints didn’t even win the game.

2 of the Top 3 WRs

This week’s top performing WRs were not the most popular guys of the week. Leading the way was AJ Brown (26% owned) for the Titans, he averaged 30 yards per catch and put up 28.6 in standard leagues. His 91-yard touchdown had the Titans going early and was a sign of good things to come for those of us who rolled the dice on Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill, meanwhile, kept the Titans offense rolling – they’re averaging 31.4 points per game since he took over the starting job. But I digress, back to the WRs. Emmanuel Sanders had a stellar game, scoring a 75-yard TD and throwing another. Sanders was started in only 31% of Yahoo leagues. Rounding out the top 3 was Diontae Johnson (12% Owned) of the Steelers. Johnson scored on a punt return and later on a 2-yard pass from Duck Hodges. Johnson was basically responsible for half of the Steelers points in their win over the Cardinals.

17.75 Yards per Touch

Austin Ekeler did all kinds of damage on Sunday, and he wasn’t even a workhorse back. Ekeler was in on only 49% of offensive snaps, and in 12 touches he managed 213 yards from scrimmage. He’s having an amazing year, currently the RB6, his ADP was RB27. He’s leading all RBs in receiving yards, and his 73 receptions are tied for 11^th among all players in the NFL. Ekeler is averaging 1.04 fantasy points per touch in standard leagues, and an amazing 1.44 yards per touch in PPR scoring. The Chargers punked the Jaguars and are now outscoring their opponents 75-20 when playing in Florida this year. Lucky for the Bucs, they don’t have the Chargers on the schedule. Hell, the Chargers even got Tyrod Taylor in on the action – he completed 5 passes and threw for a touchdown.

7 Made Field Goals

It was a day for kickers to swing your fantasy playoffs one way or another. For the Dolphins, Jason Sanders was 100% of their offense, converting on 7 of his 8 field goal attempts, kicking 243 yards of field goals. His one missed FG is the difference in the game, as the Dolphins only managed the 21 points provided by Sanders. Overall, Sanders put up 24 fantasy points, good for the 14^th highest score of the week. Younghoe Koo also had a great game, scoring 18 fantasy points of his own – he’s averaging 12.6 points per game since Week 10 and even recovered a fumble on Sunday. We also saw Will Lutz and Robbie Gould put up 13 each in a ridiculous duel that saw 94 total points scored. In that match, both teams surpassed the Vegas over/under line, which opened at 45.

26 TDs and 23 INTs

Jameis Winston had another huge game on Sunday, in both number of scores and turnovers. For the third time this season, he started the game with a pick on his very first pass. Still, it would up being a ridiculous game for Winston, who put up a season-high 456 yards and 37.74 fantasy points. His season totals of 26 TD and 23 INT are pretty ridiculous, and he could wind up being the first player to break the 30 and 30 threshold. It’s anybody’s guess where he winds up playing next year, it could be the Bucs, but it’s just as likely to be somewhere else. Either way, Winston is likely to be the most volatile player worth watching, after all, he’s the QB5 on the year – second in both passing yards and passing touchdowns.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s semifinal week, so hopefully your fantasy squad is still alive and kicking, and hopefully you didn’t get hit too hard by injuries last week. There were a number of players who saw their season cut short last weekend. Alshon Jeffery, Rashaad Penny, Mike Evans, Derrius Guice and Calvin Ridley were just some of the casualties that could have you looking for replacements this week. There are a few rookies who might be able to help you out with that this week. Let’s take a look at which rookies are in line for big things this week. Keep in mind that all players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I’d play them this week…

Rookies to Start:

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 15: vs. Jax.): Jacobs missed last week with a cracked bone in his shoulder, but he had been playing through it pretty well for weeks before sitting in week 14, and all indications are that he will play this week. The Jaguars have gone in the tank in the last few weeks and have been one of the worst run defenses in the league. They rank 31^st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and allow the 4^th-most RB PPR points per game. They’ve allowed five 100-yard rushers in their last 5 games and 10 running back scores in those games. Jacobs is a strong RB2 play this week if all systems are go with his shoulder.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Arizona’s offense has looked a bit different in recent weeks compared to the early part of the season. They’ve moved away from the 4-wide receiver base sets they were using early in the year and started using the tight end position and 2-back sets more often. It’s hurt Murray’s passing yardage output but helped him find the end zone more frequently. In the first 8 games of the year, Murray totaled just 7 TD passes and averaged just under 250 yards per game. In the last 5, he’s found the end zone 9 times but averaged 215 yards per game. I’d look for him to be around 200 yards in this one, but if you play him, you’re hoping for multiple touchdowns and some rushing production for him to return value. For their part, the Browns have allowed the 8^th-most QB rushing yards per game and did let Ryan Fitzpatrick go for 45 and a score on the ground a couple weeks ago. Murray is best treated as a top-flight QB2 option with upside for more this week.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 15: @GB): Monty has proven to be difficult to trust on a weekly basis, but the matchup here is a good one. Green Bay has been shredded on the ground for much of the season. They rank 26^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 6^th-most RB points per game. The Bears’ offense has been playing better lately and Montgomery has had at least 15 touches in 7 straight games. I’d expect him to be in the 15-20 touch range in this one, and that puts him on the RB2 radar against such a burnable defense. Montgomery did get a questionable tag this week, so make sure he plays before you start him, but the upside is there.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 15: @Pit.): Singletary faces a tough matchup this week, but his usage keeps him in the flex conversation. The Steelers rank 4^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest RB points per game, but the biggest reason they’ve been so good against the position is their ability to keep backs out of the end zone. They haven’t allowed a running back rushing score since week 5 and have given up just 6 RB scores all year. Singletary is going to be heavily involved and should be a nice play in PPR leagues. The Steelers are favored in this one, and Singletary has had at least 6 targets in the passing game in all 3 of the Bills’ losses this year. I’d expect nice passing game usage again.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 15: @Was.): Sanders had a forgettable performance on Monday night, showing a lack of vision that eventually had him ceding work to Boston Scott. Scott impressed enough in his opportunities that I’d expect him to steal more work from Sanders going forward. Washington is not a challenging match-up for running backs, allowing the 10^th-most PPR points per game and ranking 24^th in run defense DVOA, so even if Sanders doesn’t get a full workload he may still return usable value. There’s risk here, but Sanders is still worth consideration for a flex spot.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Brown’s match-up looked like a smash spot on paper, and he made good on it in a big way. He gets another plus matchup this week, but not quite as juicy as the one with Oakland. The Texans rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA but aren’t as giving to wide receivers as that number would imply. They allow the 15^th-most WR points per game. Brown’s production has come from big plays, and the Texans allow the 9^th-most passes of 20+ and 40+ yards. The last 2 games are the first times all year that Brown has out-snapped Corey Davis. He’s unquestionably the WR1 in Nashville now, and his connection with Tannehill has been solid. There is still a bit of a low floor with Brown, but we’ve also seen the ceiling and he’s got 80+ yards in 3 of the last 5 games. Brown is a volatile WR3 this week.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): Samuel has been on fire over the last month. He’s scored at least 13 PPR points in 5 straight games after reaching that mark just twice in his first 7 games of the season. This week the 49ers face off with Atlanta, who allows the 12^th-most WR points per game and ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA. They also just lost both of their starting corners to injury last week. This looks like a smash spot for Deebo (and Emmanuel Sanders), but the concern is that it gets out of hand early and the Niners lean on the run. San Francisco is favored by 11 points, and Deebo has fewer than 5 targets in 2 of the last 3 games. I do like his chances at a strong game this week but be aware that there is some risk.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 15: @Car.): Metcalf has become the most consistent part of the Seahawks’ passing attack in recent weeks. He has at least 6 catches and 70 yards in 4 of his last 5 games even as the overall passing volume for the team has been down. Seattle hasn’t thrown for 250 yards in a game since November 3^rd. Carolina is the worst run defense in the league, so there should be a lot of Chris Carson and limited pass volume again. Metcalf is still in play as a WR3 this week. Despite their struggles against running backs, the Panthers have also managed to allow the 7^th-most WR points per game. The limited volume puts a little damper on Metcalf’s ceiling, but he’s shown a solid floor that makes him a decent option this week.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): Slayton showed out on Monday night, proving that his production wasn’t just tied to Daniel Jones. This week he gets to face the Dolphins, who allow 4^th-most WR points per game and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, so there is plenty of upside. The potential return of Evan Engram could pull some targets away from him, but Slayton is in the WR3 discussion regardless of who suits up for the Giants. I would move him to the ‘Rookies to Start’ section if Engram sits again.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Brown has been a volatile weekly fantasy option this year. He’s topped 20 PPR points twice and topped 15 four times. He’s also finished below 7 points 5 times. The Jets are a solid run defense, and not so solid against the pass. They’ve allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game and rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. I’d expect the Ravens to try and get Brown going this week after catching 3 passes for negative 2 yards last week, but they might not be throwing much in the second half. He’ll have to do his damage early. Brown is a boom-or-bust WR3 option this week.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 15: @KC): Fant is questionable for this week after suffering an injury last weekend, but if he plays, he’s got a nice opportunity at a strong game. The Chiefs allow the 5^th-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. Denver is likely to be playing from behind and throwing and Fant has scored 10+ PPR points in 3 of the last 5 games (20+ in 2 of them). I wouldn’t be considering him over an elite option at the position, but he’s not too far behind that group this week if it sounds like he’s close to 100%.

Rookies to Sit:

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 15: vs. TB): I’d be tempted to consider Blough as a deep sleeper this week if he hadn’t lost Marvin Jones for the year last Sunday. Tampa is the best run defense in the league in terms of DVOA, but they are just 19^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5^th-most QB points per game. We’ve seen that Blough has a willingness to push the ball down the field, and the Bucs have been burnable. He’s still got Kenny Golladay, but the limited weapons and limited track record make Blough impossible to trust with your season on the line.

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 15: @KC): Lock has been a big surprise in his first two starts, but I think the hot streak ends this week. Kansas City has been playing at a high level lately. They rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA, and in the last 3 games they’ve allowed just 3 passing scores and have 7 interceptions. Lock has fared well through two games, but they were against below average pass defenses. The Chiefs are not that despite allowing the 12th-most QB points per game for the year. Lock may be able to produce in garbage time if Kansas City gets out in front, but I wouldn’t be inclined to start him outside of deeper 2-QB leagues.

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Hodges should finally have a full complement of weapons to work with as JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner are both expected back, but Buffalo is one of the toughest QB defenses in the league. The Bills allow the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game and rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA. Hodges failed to capitalize on a great match-up last week, finishing as just the QB23 due to limited passing volume. I wouldn’t want to roll him out there expecting more this week in a bad match-up.

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Phi.): Do you really want to risk your season on a player who has thrown for less than 200 yards in 4 of 5 starts and thrown just 3 touchdowns all year? I didn’t think so.

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 15: vs. Den.): Thompson finally saw some real playing time last week, but still played fewer snaps than both LeSean McCoy and a fresh off the street Spencer Ware and he didn’t touch the ball until the Chiefs were up two scores. It’s entirely possible the Chiefs get out in front again this week. They’re 9 and a half point favorites, but they also are likely to have Damien Williams back. The best-case scenario for Thompson is that he gets some late run with the Chiefs out in front, but Denver allows the 12^th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing backs. You could talk yourself into trying him as a cheap DFS tournament option, but not much more.

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Don’t be tempted to try Johnson with Bo Scarbrough likely to miss this week. The upside just isn’t there. He’s still going to be splitting work with JD McKissic, and the Bucs allow the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game in the league and rank 1^st in run defense DVOA. Look elsewhere.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): Dalvin Cook clearly looked healthy enough last week against Detroit, which means Mattison will continue playing second fiddle. He’s been his most productive in blowout wins, and the Chargers just don’t get blown out. They haven’t lost by more than 7 points all year. LA does struggle to stop the run. They rank 23^rd in run defense DVOA and allow 13^th-most RB points per game. Mattison will get some touches, but this probably isn’t the best week to run him out there. He’s averaged 49.5 rushing yards per game in the 7 games Minnesota won by 2+ scores, and 16.4 in the 7 games they didn’t.

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Snell’s run as the Steelers’ lead back is likely to come to an end this week. James Conner is likely to return Sunday night, and we’ve seen Snell’s efficiency and fantasy production drop over the last 3 games anyway. The Bills are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air (they rank 17^th in run defense DVOA), but I expect Snell to be playing just a change of pace role to Conner at most. If Conner is somehow out again, Snell becomes more of a dicey flex play.

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Although there is a great chance that the Ravens win in a waltz Thursday night, we’ve seen that happen several times this year and it hasn’t turned into garbage time production for Hill. Baltimore is favored by 16.5 points in this game, but that likely means a lot of Gus Edwards in the second half. Even if Hill gets extra opportunity late, the Jets rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA.

WRs Terry McLaurin & Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Phi.): Washington’s passing attack just isn’t consistent enough to trust any of the pass catchers in it in the most important weeks of the season. Philly does allow the 5^th-most points per game to opposing wide receivers, so I understand if you have to start McLaurin in a deeper league. He’s the only receiver that has shown enough to even consider. The Eagles have been burned by Darius Slayton and DeVante Parker in the last two weeks, but each guy may have caught for more yards than Haskins is likely to throw for this week.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Johnson posted a nice game last weekend, but the return of JuJu Smith-Schuster will be a problem for him moving forward. Devlin Hodges is averaging just 20 pass attempts and 1 TD in his starts, and with JuJu taking a handful of those targets, it’s hard to imagine more than just a few for Diontae. You’re banking on a touchdown if you play him, and Buffalo is one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league. I’m staying away from Johnson this week.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 15: vs. Den.): The big plays are enticing, but Hardman has just 8 offensive touches in the last 6 games. He’s been productive with those touches, but they aren’t enough to count on with your season on the line.

WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 15: @Cin.): Harry missed out on a touchdown last week on a blown call by the officials, but it was his only target of the game. Meyers continued to play a decent amount of the offensive snaps but has seen his targets drop each of the last two weeks as Sanu and Dorsett get healthier. The duo combined for 2 catches and 47 yards last week. There just isn’t enough here to trust in the semifinals.

WR Olamide Zaccheaus, ATL (Wk. 15: @SF): Zaccheaus came out of nowhere to score a 93-yard touchdown last week, but it was his only target of the game. He should see additional work moving forward with Calvin Ridley done for the year, but this week draws one of the best pass defenses in the league. San Francisco ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allows the 4^th-fewest PPR points per game to receivers.

WR Riley Ridley, CHI (Wk. 15: @GB): Ridley was the receiver thrust into action with Javon Wims going down with injury last Thursday, but there isn’t a lot of leftover receiving work to go around after Allen Robinson, and Anthony Miller and Tarik Cohen will both be ahead of Ridley in the pecking order. Monitor Ridley to see how he performs with extended opportunity, but don’t use him in fantasy lineups.

WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): Adam Thielen is on track to return this week, and Bisi wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire in his absence. The Chargers aren’t a great matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game. I wouldn’t consider Johnson anywhere this week.

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): It looks like Evan Engram has a good chance to return this week, and even if he doesn’t there are higher upside options out there than Smith. I’d stay away from him this week. As bad as the Dolphins have been, they are at least a middling defense against tight ends.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 15: @Pit.): The Steelers have allowed just one tight end to reach 30 receiving yards since their week 7 bye, and Knox has just 8 catches in the last 4 weeks. Knox is nothing more than a TD dart throw this week.

TE Irv Smith Jr, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): The Chargers allow the 9^th-fewest TE points per game, and the return of Adam Thielen this week should leave less passing volume to go around to the other weapons. Smith hasn’t had many fantasy relevant weeks this season, and I wouldn’t count on this to be one either.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 15: @Oak.): Minshew hasn’t looked quite the same since being re-inserted into the lineup in place of Nick Foles, but the Raiders are a perfect spot for him to get right. Oakland has allowed the 2^nd-most QB points per game and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. The Jaguars are likely to lean on Leonard Fournette, so there may not be a ton of volume for Gardner, but against this defense he should make the most of the passes he does throw, and he’s always a candidate to add a few points with his legs. I like his chances of finishing as at least a mid-QB2, but he is just the 27^th-highest priced QB on DraftKings at $5,500.

RB Patrick Laird, MIA (Wk. 15: @NYG): Laird was the full time running back last week in the Dolphins’ first game since Kalen Ballage was hurt, playing 82% of the offensive snaps. While 15 carries for 48 yards doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, it’s more impressive than it looks on the surface. Ballage couldn’t manage to run for 2 yards per carry behind this offensive line. Laird averaged 3.2 per carry against the defense that ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA. The Giants aren’t a pushover, but they aren’t as stingy against runners as the Jets. Laird has also seen 5 targets in each of the last 2 games, making him an interesting option in PPR leagues. I know it’s not exciting to start any Dolphins’ offensive players, but Laird is at least intriguing as a flex option in deeper leagues.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 15: @Was.): The Eagles have to throw the ball to someone, and only JJ and Greg Ward are healthy at this point. The Eagles will undoubtedly use two tight end sets as their base offense, but JJAW will be on the field almost every snap. Washington ranks 18^th in pass defense DVOA and Arcega-Whiteside is a big bodied receiver who excels in the red zone. He’s as good a bet as any Eagle pass catcher to find the end zone this week.

WR Scotty Miller, TB (Wk. 15: @Det.): Miller is practicing this week and looks likely to return. I’ve seen a lot of fantasy pundits talking up Justin Watson this week with Mike Evans done for the year, but Miller and Breshad Perriman were both playing ahead of him before Miller got hurt. The Lions allow the 9^th-most WR points per game and the Bucs are a pass-happy offense. Miller is an upside option in DFS tournaments this week. He costs the minimum in DraftKings. Obviously, he shouldn’t be considered if Jameis Winston ends up sitting, so keep an eye on his status if considering Miller.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.