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We are getting to the nitty gritty right now! Only two weeks remain in the regular season.

If you have been using our picks this year, then you are sitting pretty good in your year-long pool and are poised to take that top spot!

 

If you haven’t been using our picks, well then you deserve the low spot in the standings that you have right now! But hey, jump on the bandwagon now and maybe win a week or two!

…and never doubt me again! :)

 

WEEK 16 – HERE WE GO!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

 

• 16 – SEATTLE over Arizona – The Seahawks get an easy tune up before their huge matchup with the 49ers next week.
  
  
• 15 – INDIANAPOLIS over Carolina – I think it’s safe to say that the Panthers were one of the most disappointing team in the league this season.
  
  
• 14 – SAN FRANCISCO over Los Angeles Rams – The ending of the Falcons/9ers game was just crazy – and made San Francisco realize that they can no longer leave anything to chance.
  
  
• 13 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Oakland – After their dismal display in their last two games in Oakland, let’s just call them the ______________ Raiders until they officially move to Vegas. My BOLD PREDICTION this week is that THE LAS VEGAS RAIDERS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS NEXT YEAR.
  
  
• 12 – PHILADELPHIA over Dallas – (sigh) … this game will actually decide a division winner…(sigh)…
  
  
• 11 – NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo – I still don’t see the Bills as a legitimate threat to the Patriots AFC East dominance.
  
  
• 10 – TAMPA BAY over Houston – Tampa has nothing to play for but are playing like a team with nothing to lose.
  
  
• 9 – Kansas City over CHICAGO – I know I said the Panthers were the most disappointing team this season…but then the Bears came to mind…
  
  
• 8 – New Orleans over TENNESSEE – Between this game and the game last week against the Texans, the Titans are getting a bad dose of reality
  
  
• 7 – Baltimore over CLEVELAND – It’s really hard to see the Ravens lose another game this year.
  
  
• 6 – MIAMI over Cincinnati – You know that feeling when you are watching a Pee-Wee Football game? It’s just so cute to watch them run around and try to play football. Yeah…that…
  
  
• 5 – DENVER over Detroit – I will say this, Drew Lock is starting the process of eventually coming close to the possibility of maybe changing my opinion on his legitimacy as a starting QB in the NFL.
  
  
• 4 – MINNESOTA over Green Bay – The Vikings are set to complete their “Don’t forget about us” run to the NFC North title! (side note, I almost just typed NFC Central – yay for nostalgia!)
  
  
• 3 – ATLANTA over Jacksonville – How did the Falcons pull off the upset in San Fran last week?? BECAUSE I PICKED THEM TO LOSE!!!!!
  
  
• 2 – WASHINGTON over New York Giants – Haskins vs Jones – the NFC East quarterback matchup of the future! With probably the same levels of stakes as there are this week!
  
  
• 1 – NEW YORK JETS over Pittsburgh – I still don’t think the Jets are as bad as their record says they are.

 

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to the final week bye week of the season. Hopefully you’re in good playoff position heading into this week. Week 11 had some exciting new developments, including the continued breakout of Deebo Samuel and the debut of N’Keal Harry, but let’s not live in the past. Let’s look at what to expect from week 12…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 12: @NYJ): As usual, Jacobs is an obvious start this week. He’s not quite a chalk DFS play, but he should be a fine fantasy starter in this one. The Jets have been tough on running backs for a team with just 3 wins. They’ve allowed the 13^th fewest RB PPR points per game and rank 2^nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but the Raiders should feed Jacobs once again. They’re a 3-point road favorite and should have no problem keeping the game script at least neutral. Jacobs has run for 110 or more yards in 4 of his past 6 games and has multiple receptions in 6 of his last 7.

 

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Sanders didn’t exactly have the breakout game we all hoped for last weekend with Jordan Howard out, but I like his chances to have that big day this week if Howard sits again. New England is one of the toughest RB matchups in the league because they allow the 2^nd lowest RB receiving production in the league. The Seahawks aren’t a complete pushover, allowing the 11^th-fewest RB points per game, but they rank just 16^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 11^th-highest yards per rush attempt. They’ve also allowed 3 backs this year to reach 8+ catches and 60+ receiving yards in a game. If Sanders gets a full workload he should be a safe RB2 with so many backs out of commission this week. If Howard plays, he falls to more of an RB3 or flex option.

 

 

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 12: @Phi.): On the other side of the Philly-Seattle game, DK Metcalf looks poised to have a strong week facing a secondary that allows the 7^th-most WR PPR points per game. Metcalf has been playing at a high level lately, and the Seahawks will have Tyler Lockett playing at less than 100%. In his last 4 games, Metcalf has turned 33 targets into 19-259-3. DK is a little pricey to be a sneaky DFS play this week, but he should be a strong WR3 and passable WR3 in a smash spot this week.

 

Borderline Rookies: 

 

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Singletary has become the clear lead back in Buffalo, and in a week with numerous injuries and byes at the top of the position, he has to be in RB2 consideration, but the matchup is a bit dicey this week. The Broncos allow the 12^th-fewest RB points per game and haven’t allowed more than 76 rushing yards to an opposing back since week 4 (Marlon Mack hit 76 against them in week 8). They also rank 6^th in run defense DVOA. Singletary remains a solid option and a decent bet to reach double-digit PPR points, but his ceiling isn’t exciting this week. 

 

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): You know the drill with Montgomery. The usage has been there, but the rushing efficiency hasn’t. He’s averaged 4 yards per carry or more in a game just twice this season. Monty has had at least 14 carries and 15 touches in each of the last 4 games, and with Chicago favored by almost a touchdown this week I’d expect that streak to be safe, but he’ll likely finish as a low-end RB2 if he doesn’t get into the end zone. The Giants have given up just 8 RB scores on the year (rushing or receiving). The volume will make Montgomery a passable floor play with the hope for more.

 

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 12: vs. GB): There is a lot up in the air this week for the 49ers offense with regard to injuries. Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders, Matt Breida, and George Kittle are all not taking contact yet as of Thursday. The 49ers seem to have found something in Samuel, so he should be a solid WR3 option even in a tough matchup with Green Bay if he plays, but if you have safe options that play earlier in the day it would probably make sense to get them in the lineup rather than wait on Deebo. The Packers allow the 8^th-fewest WR points per game.

 

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 12: @LAR): Brown is more of a ceiling play than anything this week. The Rams have been ok against opposing wide receivers, limiting them to the 13^th-fewest PPR points per game, but Brown is likely to have to tangle with Jalen Ramsey for much of this game. Julio Jones is the only team WR1 to reach 70 yards against the Rams since week 4. Brown’s deep threat skills make him an intriguing upside option, but this week could be a tough one for him if he doesn’t get a deep ball.

 

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): McLaurin got back on track to some degree last week, totaling 69 yards on just 4 targets against the Jets. He also had a 67-yard catch nixed by a penalty. All in all, it was a good sign for McLaurin moving forward. He gets another plus matchup this week against a Lions’ secondary that has been cooked lately, allowing five 80+ yard receiving days and 7 WR touchdowns in their last 5 games. McLaurin is in play as a WR3 in a favorable matchup, but beware there is still a low floor given the shaky QB play he’s getting.

 

WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Renfrow has fully emerged as a weekly PPR WR3 streamer over the last few weeks. The Raiders have actively looked to involve him in the passing game, and he gets a great matchup this week. In his last 4 games he’s gone 19-250-2 on 22 targets. He gets to face the Jets this week, who allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game. I’d expect a double-digit PPR output from Renfrow this week, putting him back in that WR3 range.

 

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 12: @Buf.): Fant will be an interesting option at the tail end of the TE1 range this week. With Hunter Henry and Travis Kelce on byes this week, the TE position is a little uglier than usual. The Bills have been as tough a matchup as there is for tight ends this year. They’ve given up just 1 touchdown to the position, allowed only 1 TE to catch more than 4 passes, and only 1 to top 50 receiving yards, and they weren’t the same tight end. Fant has been on a bit of a tear since the Broncos traded Emmanuel Sanders and Jeff Heuerman has been hurt. In the last 3 weeks, Fant has been targeted 23 times and totaled 12-201-1. The usage should be there even in the tough matchup. Fant’s ceiling won’t be great, but he has a reasonable shot at being the second tight end to reach 50 yards against Buffalo.

 

Rookies to Sit: 

 

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 12: @Chi.): Jones has been a road warrior this season, averaging 24.5 fantasy points per road start compared with 11.25 points per home start, but that largely is a result of who his opponents were. His 3 blowup performances came against the defenses that allow the 2^nd, 4^th and 11^th-most points per game to opposing QBs. This week’s opponent allows the 5^th-fewest and have allowed just 9 passing scores in 10 games. Jones has turned the ball over 11 times in his last 5 starts. He’ll need rushing production to make him even a worthwhile QB2 play this week in a brutal matchup. If you’re considering Jones in a 1 QB format you’re doing yourself a disservice this week.

 

QB Ryan Finley, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Finley had a prime opportunity to have a decent game last week and he fell horribly flat, completing just 42% of his passes for 115 yards, zero TDs and a pick. This week he’ll face a Steelers’ defense that has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to fewer than 200 passing yards and forced 16 QB turnovers in those games. If Finley were your last option in a superflex league, I’d consider starting a non-QB instead.

 

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 12: @Was.): Johnson returned from his injury last weekend, but he didn’t return to his normal role. I think Bo Scarbrough’s early down role might become the new normal in Detroit rather than a one-game fluke. Both Ty Johnson and JD McKissic are more built to be third down backs rather than early down grinders. Washington has given up the 5^th-most rushing yards per game to opposing backs, and I’d look more to the new guy Scarbrough to be the best fantasy option in the Lions’ backfield this week. 

 

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 12: @NE): It was nice to see Pollard get into the end zone last week and make the most of his opportunities, but the Cowboys enter week 12 as a touchdown underdog and Pollard doesn’t get opportunities when the Cowboys are behind. 37 of his 51 carries this season have come with Dallas in the lead (27 of them with a multiple score lead) and 8 of his 11 targets came with the team ahead as well. This week’s opponent, the Patriots, allow the fewest RB points per game and allow fewer than 30 running back receiving yards per game. There isn’t much upside for Pollard here even if he gets a boost in playing time.

 

RB Qadree Ollison, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. TB): Ollison found the end zone last week, but it would be tough to roll the dice on a repeat performance. He was the 3^rd option in the run game behind Brian Hill and Kenjon Barner, so you’re just hoping for a goal line carry or 2 if you play him. The Bucs allow the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game and rank 1^st in run defense DVOA. I’d look elsewhere if desperate for a running back this week.

 

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ten.): It was nice to see Armstead get a couple targets again in the passing game, but he’s still only seeing a handful of snaps and a few touches per game. There isn’t enough production to consider him unless Fournette misses time.

 

RB Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 12: @Cle.): Gaskin is fighting for scraps in one of the worst offenses in the league. No running back on the team saw more than one carry other than Kalen Ballage despite Ballage being his usual inefficient self. Gaskin has played just 12 snaps in the two weeks he’s been active. Even with Mark Walton being cut from the team, there isn’t a reason to take a flyer on Gaskin.

 

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 12: @Chi.): The last time we saw Slayton he was roasting the Jets for 10-121-2 on 15 targets. It was an impressive performance to be sure, but it’ll be tough for him to produce anywhere close to that this week. Sterling Shepard is practicing in full and is expected to clear the concussion protocol in time to play this week, and Evan Engram has an outside shot at suiting up as well. Shepard was targeted 9 times in each of the 3 games he played with Daniel Jones, including one that Golden Tate was active for. I still think Slayton is in line for a decent workload (5-7 targets), but the Bears allow the 2^nd-fewest WR PPR points per game and Slayton is a bit overpriced to be a cheap DFS option ($5,300 on DraftKings). You could play Slayton if you’re desperate, but with Shepard back and the tough matchup I’d look for a safer option.

 

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): I’d love to tell you that Brown is a sneaky option this week, but the Titans’ passing game just hasn’t been trustworthy all year and Jacksonville has allowed just one wide receiver to reach 70 yards in their last 4 games. The return of Corey Davis should also take away some of Brown’s target share. If Brown manages to top 50 yards this week it would be a bit of an upset.

 

WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): With N’Keal Harry active for the first time last Sunday, Meyers was relegated to the 5^th WR role for the Pats. He did still play 19 snaps but managed just 1 catch for 7 yards on 2 targets. As Harry gets more integrated into the offense, Meyers is going to find it harder to make a fantasy impact. Meyers would slide into the sleeper category for this week if Dorsett doesn’t play, but it’s still a low upside spot with the Cowboys allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game.

 

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 12: @Hou.): It sounds like Campbell may return from his abdominal injury this week, and he would’ve been an interesting sleeper this week if TY Hilton were still out, but Hilton’s return renders Campbell an afterthought for fantasy purposes this week. Monitor his production this week, but he’ll be hard to actually use in any lineups.

 

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 12: @Was.): You might be able to get away with Hockenson as a fill-in tight end this week, but he’s been a disappointment more often than not. Washington was eviscerated by the tight ends of the Jets last week, but prior to last week hadn’t allowed any tight end to reach 60 yards and had only allowed 2 TE scores. Hockenson hasn’t topped 4 catches in any game since week one, and has only reached 50 yards once and has just 1 score since then. There are other tight ends you can find that would be a better option this week.

 

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Moreau continues to get in the end zone every other week, but his usage continues to render him almost unplayable. His snap share has been solid, playing about 40% of the offensive snaps or higher every week, but in the last 4 games he’s totaled just 4-21-2 on 6 targets. If he doesn’t get in the end zone, he’ll give you close to a goose egg, and the Jets have allowed just 2 tight end scores all year.

 

Rookies on Byes: QB Kyler Murray, ARI, RB Alexander Mattison, MIN, RB Darwin Thompson, KC, WR Andy Isabella, ARI, WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI, WR Bisi Johnson, MIN, WR Mecole Hardman, KC, TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options: 

 

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): I know…I feel dirty even considering recommending Haskins in a fantasy lineup, but if there was ever a week for him to come through, this is it. The Lions have given up multiple passing TDs in 6 straight games, and 3+ passing scores in 4 of the last 5. They’ve also given up 280+ passing yards in 5 of them and haven’t picked off a pass since week 6. This could be a get right spot for their defense, or it could be Dwayne Haskins’ first useful fantasy week. Haskins has sneaky upside in 2QB leagues as a desperation streamer.

 

RB Patrick Laird, MIA (Wk. 12: @Cle): You know you’re grasping at straws a bit if you’re considering the backup running back for the Dolphins for your lineup, but you have to figure the Dolphins are only going to put up with Kalen Ballage running for 2 yards per carry for so long before they decide to see what someone else can do. The player with the best chance to be that ‘someone else’ right now is Laird. Myles Gaskin was a more prolific runner in college and was the only one of the pair that was drafted, but the usage on Sunday made it clear that Laird is more likely to benefit than Gaskin if the Dolphins shift some of the work away from Ballage. He out-snapped Gaskin 16-7, and more importantly was the guy on the field during the hurry-up garbage time offense. He totaled 6 catches for 51, and although 4 of them came on the team’s final drive he showed enough that he should get some extended run this week. He was a prolific pass catcher in college with 96 receptions and 5 receiving TDs in his last 2 seasons at Cal, and he should get a chance to showcase that skill more going forward. With the numerous unavailable running backs this week, Laird is an interesting dart throw if you’re desperate for a fill-in RB in PPR leagues.

 

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 12: @Cin.): I feel like Diontae should be held out of this week’s game just on principle after he suffered a concussion that left him BLEEDING FROM HIS EAR on Thursday, but it sounds like there is a real chance he clears the protocol in time for the game. If he plays, he has to at least be in consideration for a WR3/flex spot with JuJu Smith-Schuster likely out. The Bengals rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and Johnson would be the default number 1 or 2 receiver along with James Washington. Keep a close eye on the injury report, but Johnson is a sneaky streamer if he plays.

 

WR Scotty Miller, TB (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Miller jumped onto the fantasy radar with 7 targets in a game back in week 6 with Breshad Perriman sidelined, but he fell back into obscurity for a few weeks once Perriman returned (just 6 total targets in weeks 8, 9 and 10). In week 11 he resurfaced. Miller was on the field for 51% of the offensive snaps without a Perriman injury and managed to post 4-71 on 6 targets. It may feel like chasing points to consider Miller this week, but he gets to face an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 6^th-most WR PPR points per game and costs just $100 more than the minimum on DraftKings. The Falcons have struggled to defend the slot this year. 3 of the 4 100-yard receiving days they allowed were to players that play significant snaps in the slot (Michael Thomas, Tyler Lockett and Nelson Agholor). They also gave up 3-72 to Keke Coutee, 6-69 to Larry Fitzgerald and 8-65-1 to TY Hilton.

 

WR N’Keal Harry, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): Harry is worth looking at this week if you’re desperate for a WR in deeper leagues, and he’s worth a stash after seeing his usage in his NFL debut. Harry played almost an even split with Mohamed Sanu & Phillip Dorsett behind Julian Edelman and was tied for 3^rd on the team with 4 targets. It’s a really encouraging sign to see him so involved right away, and now Sanu is expected to miss multiple weeks with injury and Dorsett is questionable for week 12 with a concussion. The Cowboys are a tough matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but there should be plenty of opportunity for Harry if Dorsett is out. At just $3,300 on DraftKings, he’ll be a fun & inexpensive upside option in DFS tournaments. There will be more favorable matchups ahead to use Harry in later this season if he shows out in his extended opportunity this week (Houston, Kansas City, Cincinnati).

 

WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): Keep an eye on Paul Richardson’s status for week 12. With Richardson out last week, Harmon was a near every-down player and found a nice rhythm with Dwayne Haskins. Harmon totaled 5-53 on 6 targets and gets to face a Detroit defense this week that allows the 10^th-most PPR points per game to WRs. At just $3,300 on DraftKings, he offers plenty of upside for DFS tournaments if Richardson is out again.

 

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Knox found the end zone for the first time since week 3 last Sunday and played his second highest snap share of the season. The targets left something to be desired, but Knox gets another favorable matchup this week. The tight end position is the best way to attack the Broncos. They’re a top-5 defense against QBs and WRs, and a top-12 defense against RBs. Tight end is the only position they are in the bottom half of the league at defending. Knox makes for a reasonable fill-in this week if you’re struggling for a tight end.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most of you we’ve made it to the final week of the fantasy regular season. You know where you stand in the playoff picture and know what you need to do to extend your season. It also means the end of the NFL bye weeks, which may make it harder to find use for some of the rookies that were invaluable fill-ins over the last few weeks. Week 13 does boast some favorable matchups for the rookie crop. Miles Sanders, David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs all face off with defenses in the bottom-5 in the NFL at limiting RB points, and every notable rookie tight end other than Noah Fant gets to face off with a bottom-8 tight end defense. Plenty of rookies may dazzle this week.

Regardless of upcoming opponent, let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookie crop this week on Thanksgiving. I’ll dive into the rest of the rookies that play Sunday and Monday later, so stay tuned for that… All of the players for Week 13 are now listed.

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Singletary is getting close to being an every-week fantasy starter. He’s put up 75+ rushing yards in 3 of his past 4 games, and this week faces a Dallas defense that ranks 18^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. His usage is secure every week, and he has the ability to be a game-changer on the Thanksgiving DFS slate at a reasonable $5,800 price tag. The only rookie running back I’d consider ahead of him this week is Josh Jacobs.

 

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 13: @Det.): I know playing Monty would feel like playing with fire on Turkey Day, but on paper it’s probably the right move. The Bears are almost certainly going to handle the Lions in the early game Thursday as Detroit starts David Blough at QB. Montgomery’s efficiency has been BRUTAL lately, but he’s got 15+ touches in 5 straight games and the Lions are allowing the 2^nd-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. If you have Montgomery, it probably makes sense to hold your nose and put him in the lineup.

 

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 13: @KC): Jacobs is coming off his worst fantasy game of the year in a surprising blowout loss to the Jets, but you have to go back to the well again this week. His ceiling won’t be as high as it typically is with the Raiders a 10.5-point underdog, but he’ll have plenty of room to run while the game is competitive. The Chiefs allow the most RB PPR points per game and rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Jacobs went for 9.9 PPR points the first time he faced KC (99 rushing yards). I expect he’ll reach double-digits in this one.

 

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Jordan Howard has been ruled out for another week, and Sanders has played more than 80% of the offensive snaps with Howard sidelined the last two games.  Against Miami that should result in a strong fantasy day for him. The Dolphins have given up the 5^th-most RB PPR points per game and rank 29^th in run defense DVOA. The Eagles have been hesitant to give Sanders a huge workload. He hasn’t topped 15 touches in any game this year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jay Ajayi getting a bit more work this week if the Eagles are playing from ahead (they’re a 10-point favorite), but if Sanders gets about 15 touches in this matchup, he should be at least a low-end RB2 this week.

 

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): It looks like the Giants will be without Golden Tate, Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison this week. That leaves Sterling Shepard and Slayton as the top two options in the passing game (outside of Saquon of course) against a defense that ranks 19^th in pass defense DVOA. Slayton has been consistently targeted down the field, and no team in the NFL has allowed more 40+ yard pass plays than the Green Bay Packers. There are likely safer options than Slayton this week, but this a great spot for another big game for the Auburn product. He may tangle with Jaire Alexander more than I’d like him to, but I still think Slayton comes up with a nice game.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. LAR): Murray has been playing his best football of the season the last few weeks, and this week gets a reasonable matchup with the Rams. LA ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA, and the strongest part of their pass defense, Jalen Ramsey, isn’t likely to venture into the slot to cover Larry Fitzgerald and/or Christian Kirk. Murray has really started to use his legs over the past several weeks, topping 30 rushing yards in 5 of his last 7 games, and the Rams are a week removed from letting Lamar Jackson run for 95. With all 32 teams playing, Murray is going to be more of a low-end QB1 this week rather than locked-in starter, but the upside is there for a strong week.

 

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): The Steelers have made the switch to Devlin Hodges at QB this week, and the last time Hodges started they leaned heavily on the run game with 16 rushing attempts in 25 first half offensive plays against the Chargers. James Conner is expected to miss another week, and Snell worked as the starter last week, handling 21 of the team’s 38 rushing attempts. Kerrith Whyte had a nice performance last week as well, but he carried just 6 times and played just 7 offensive snaps. Snell is the Steeler back you want. The Browns have limited opposing backs to the 13^th-fewest PPR points per game, but they rank 22^nd in run defense DVOA. Snell seems like a sure bet for 15+ carries against that defense. I like him as a flex option this week. He is a better option in non-PPR formats though.

 

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. Min.): I believe Metcalf is going to fall on the right side of the borderline this week. The Vikings have struggled to contain all kinds of different receivers this year, allowing the 4^th-most PPR points per game to the position. They’ve given up a decent number of splash plays, allowing the 11^th-most 20+ yard pass plays on the year. Tyler Lockett is still a little banged up, and Metcalf has averaged 7.8 targets per game over the last 5 contests. There is still some degree of boom-or-bust to Metcalf’s game, but I like him to finish as a WR3 or better this week.

 

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): McLaurin is more of a floor play than ceiling as long as Haskins is the QB, but the matchup this week puts him in play. The Panthers overall pass defense has been decent, ranking 8^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve given up the 5^th-most WR points per game. McLaurin has been the target on 21.3% of Haskins’ pass attempts this season and has averaged 7.8 yards per target. He’s averaged about a 4-70 line the past two weeks, and I think he’ll be in that ballpark again in this plus matchup. He’s a reasonably safe WR3/4 floor play with an outside chance at a ceiling week.

 

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 13: @Ind.): Brown has been the epitome of boom-or-bust this season. He’s topped 80 receiving yards in 4 contests and been held under 30 yards in 6 of them. The Titans’ offense as a whole has been more productive in the passing game since changing QBs. They’re averaging 32 more passing yards and 0.6 more passing TDs per game in Tannehill’s starts compared to Mariota’s (excluding the game Mariota was benched during). Brown leads the team in targets from Tannehill, and in yards per target from him (min. 6 targets). The Colts are an average pass defense. Brown is worth a roll of the dice if you’re an underdog in a must-win matchup.

 

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Fant put up a pretty miserable fantasy day in week 12 with the whole Broncos’ offense doing next to nothing. He was targeted 5 times but totaled just 3 catches for 14 yards. It’s worth noting that the return of Jeff Heuerman from injury did ding his snap share a little bit. Heuerman had been out all 3 games since the Manny Sanders trade prior to week 12, and Fant played 82, 86, and 86 percent of the offensive snaps in those games. That number was down to 74% in week 12 with Heuerman back on the field. Fant is still the tight end featured in the passing game, but the Chargers allow the 10^th-fewest PPR points to the position. His usage keeps him in the conversation of being a top-12 tight end option this week but he’ll be a volatile option like most borderline tight ends. The likelihood that Drew Lock starts this week gives Fant even more uncertainty.

 

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Knox played above 70% of the offensive snaps in consecutive weeks for the first time all year in weeks 11 & 12. If that continues the targets are going to follow. The Cowboys allow the 8^th-most PPR points per game to tight ends, and the Bills are a touchdown underdog and will likely have to throw it more than they like to. If there was ever a week to take a leap of faith on Knox, this is probably it.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): Jones has been productive of late, putting up 11 TDs and 1 pick over the last 4 games while adding 28.5 rushing yards per game in that span, but turnovers and sacks have continued to be problems for him. He’s taken 23 sacks and lost 7 fumbles in his past 5 games. The Packers have just a middling pass rush, but so do the Jets and Cardinals who got to Jones a combined 14 times. Green Bay allows just the 10^th-fewest QB points per game and Jones will be without Golden Tate and Evan Engram. Engram has been out several weeks, but Tate has averaged 8 targets per game since returning from suspension. Jones is only a low-end QB2 option this week.

 

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): Haskins failed to make good on his opportunity last week against one of the worst QB defenses in the league, so there’s no reason to trust him against a much tougher opponent this week. The Panthers allow the 11^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA. In 3 starts this year, Haskins has averaged 171 passing yards per game and totaled 2 touchdowns and 3 turnovers. There just isn’t a ceiling to chase here right now.

 

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): The Steelers have made the switch from Mason Rudolph to Devlin “Duck” Hodges, but he’s not likely to be a valuable fantasy starter this week. Pittsburgh leaned heavily on the run game in Hodges’ first start, and I’d expect them to do the same here. Pittsburgh ran the ball on 16 of their first 25 offensive plays in Hodges’ first start. Cleveland ranks 9^th in pass defense DVOA. Hodges’ best bet for fantasy production would be on the ground. He ran for nearly 30 yards in his first start, and Cleveland has allowed the 4^th-most QB rushing yards per game and coughed up 4 rushing scores to the position. I’d still look elsewhere this week, even in 2QB formats.

 

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Signs are pointing to Drew Lock making his first start of the year Sunday. He’s been taking the majority of the 1^st string reps in practice, but I’d rather see what he can do before pulling the trigger on him in any lineups. The Broncos want to run first and foremost, and the Chargers rank 27^th in run defense DVOA. The Broncos likely want to limit Lock to fewer than 30 attempts if possible. I’d steer clear until we see how Lock looks in real game action.

 

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): The Vikings have played 3 consecutive close games that were decided by 4 points or less, and Mattison has averaged just 8 offensive snaps per game in those contests. The Vikings are a field goal underdog this week and Seattle allows the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. Mattison probably gets a handful of carries, but not enough to trust in lineups.

 

RBs Patrick Laird & Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Laird did see a jump in playing time last week as expected, but he was still limited to just 37% of the offensive snaps. He played one snap less than Kalen Ballage, and Gaskin played just enough to keep Laird’s usage from being exciting. With all 32 teams playing this week, you shouldn’t be scrounging the wire for a guy who may get a handful of targets on one of the worst offenses in the league. The Eagles allow the 9^th-fewest PPR points per game to running backs.

 

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 13: @SF): I only mention Hill at all because he got 8 carries on Monday night. There’s nothing to read into his usage. Baltimore won by 39 points, so he got some late run. It’s HIGHLY unlikely that scenario repeats itself in San Francisco.

 

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. TB): In two games since posting a 5-65 receiving line against Houston in week 9 Armstead has just 3 touches for 19 yards. The Bucs rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and allow the 3^rd-fewest RB PPR points per game. Even if Ryquell does get a handful of touches this week he’s unlikely to do much with them.

 

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Brown found the end zone twice last week, and probably is still in consideration for your lineup this week if you have him, but on paper this looks like a down week for Hollywood. The 49ers rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 7^th-fewest WR PPR points per game. This week’s matchup is going to be a rainy one in Baltimore, and if you play Brown it’s with the hope he hits a couple big plays. San Francisco has allowed just 18 pass plays of 20+ yards in 11 games. No other team in the league has allowed fewer than 23. I get it that Brown may be your best option this week, but I want to make it clear how dicey he is against the 49ers.

 

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Samuel has been breaking out over the past few weeks, but the return of George Kittle last Sunday resulted in Samuel being targeted just twice. He did turn those targets into 50 yards and a TD, but similar usage this week is unlikely to have a similar return. The Ravens secondary has been fantastic since trading for Marcus Peters. They’ve given up just 2 WR scores in their past 6 games, and there is a 100% chance of rain in Baltimore during the game. I know there will be temptation to play Samuel after he put up 19.2, 21.4, and 13 PPR points in his last 3 games, but I think you’ll be better served to look elsewhere this week.

 

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): Johnson may very well lead the Steelers in targets this week, but I’d rather not rely on him if you need a win this week. The Steelers are likely to lean on the run game, and the Browns allow the 11^th-fewest WR points per game. Johnson has just 5 catches for 46 yards in the past 2 games. Meanwhile James Washington has put up 6-147-1 including a 79-yard TD catch from Devlin Hodges. Washington seems like the higher upside play this week. Johnson has some upside this week, but it’s very possible the Steelers total less than 200 passing yards which caps his ceiling.

 

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 13: vs. Oak.): Tyreek Hill is fully expected to play this week after exiting KC’s last game with a hamstring issue just 7 snaps in. Mecole played 52 snaps in that game but had played just 38 snaps total in the 3 games prior, totaling 3-118-2 on 3 targets and adding a rush for 7 yards in those games. That’s an incredible level of production given the limited playing time, but Hardman remains just a big play dart throw as long as Hill is in the lineup. The Raiders have been burnable, giving up more 20+ yard pass plays than any other team in the league, but I’d still try for a safer option this week.

 

WR N’Keal Harry, NE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Harry made a spectacular TD catch last week and played more than 80% of the offensive snaps, but the return of Phillip Dorsett this week should push him back to the bench. He’ll play some, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration even in this decent matchup. I’d look to Jakobi Meyers if you’re looking for a rookie Patriot pass catcher this week.

 

WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): Harmon has finally started to make an impact on the field the last couple weeks with Paul Richardson battling an injury. Richardson returned last week but played just 15 snaps to Harmon’s 38. Harmon has been targeted 6 times in each of the last 2 contests, but he’s been mostly utilized in the short & intermediate part of the field. His sneaky PPR upside the last two weeks was mostly due to so many receivers being on byes. With all 32 teams playing and Richardson another week removed from injury there just isn’t enough upside to try Harmon this week.

 

WRs Andy Isabella & KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. LAR):  Johnson is an obvious sit with just 4 catches for 36 yards on 9 targets in the past 3 weeks, but I’d be opposed to starting Isabella too. He’s getting some deep targets on his limited snaps, but he may have to match up with Jalen Ramsey a bit in this one. He’s still in play as a cheap DFS tournament dart throw, but I’d probably look elsewhere this week. The Rams have allowed the 2^nd-fewest pass plays of 20+ yards in the league and have given up just 4 passes of 40+ on the season.

 

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Johnson was already producing in a limited capacity before the Lions brought in Bo Scarbrough, but Ty’s opportunity should be limited even further going forward. Bo has become the clear leader of the Lions RB committee, getting almost all of the early down work. Johnson is left fighting with JD McKissic for leftovers. Johnson would be lucky to top 35% of the offensive snaps this week against a Bears’ defense allowing the 14^th-most RB points per game, and even if he does reach that number, it’s highly unlikely he reaches a usable point total.

 

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Hockenson hasn’t produced much fantasy goodness in quite some time. He hasn’t topped 10 PPR points since week 4, and he’s finished under 3.5 PPR points in 3 of his last 5 games. He gets a favorable matchup this week against a Bears’ team that has allowed the 7^th-most points to the position per game, but in week 12 he combined his lack of production with a drop in playing time. It was the first time all year he played fewer than 50% of the Lions’ offensive snaps, giving way to Logan Thomas at times. He was playing through an injury, which may explain the dip in snaps, but he will still be banged up on the short week this week. His limited playing time and limited production makes him almost impossible to trust this week.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Phillip Dorsett is set to return this week, but it sounds like Mohamed Sanu could be out again. Sanu has been playing primarily in the slot, so it’s Meyers who is likely to play in his stead. Houston has struggled to defend the slot, allowing massive games to Michael Thomas (10-123) and Keenan Allen (13-183-2) who spend a decent amount of time in the slot, and gave up respectable games to less heralded slot receivers Jarius Wright (5-59), Mohamed Sanu (5-42-1) and Hunter Renfrow (4-88-1). At just $3,300 on DraftKings, Meyers has a chance to easily outproduce his price tag. The Texans rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA.

 

WR Bisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): It seems that Adam Thielen may return Monday night, and if he does, I don’t expect Johnson to do much. He hasn’t topped 4 targets in any game that Thielen played from start to finish. Unfortunately, we may not know if Thielen is playing until Monday night. If you’re considering Thielen this week, it makes some sense to scoop Johnson off the waiver wire to be safe. The Vikes are a 3-point underdog on Monday night, so they’ll likely be throwing more than 30 times and you could make a case for Bisi as a TD dart throw even if Thielen returns. If Thielen does sit, Johnson becomes more of a WR4 type, but one with enough upside to not kill you this week and be a potential steal in DFS tournaments at just $3,800 in DraftKings. The Seahawks aren’t a WR defense to target, but they aren’t one to avoid either allowing the 14^th-most PPR points per game to the position.

 

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 13: vs. Ten.): Campbell’s status is still up in the air for Sunday, but if he plays, he has a chance at a surprising day. TY Hilton has already been ruled out, and the last time Campbell played with Hilton sidelined he was targeted 8 times. Eric Ebron also played in that game, and he’s since gone to injured reserve. The Titans rank 23^rd in pass defense DVOA and Campbell is basically free in DFS ($3,200 on DraftKings).

 

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 13: @Mia.): It looks like there is a real chance that Alshon Jeffery returns this week, but if he doesn’t there is some solid upside for Arcega-Whiteside. The Dolphins are the worst team in the league in pass defense DVOA and they allow the 8^th-most fantasy points per game to the position. JJ was targeted 5 times and played 71% of the snaps in week 12 as the number 2 receiver to Jordan Matthews, and Matthews was cut this week. Nelson Agholor is also on the mend and could be back. If both he and Jeffery return, you shouldn’t consider JJ, but if Alshon or both sit, JJ becomes an upside option for DFS tournaments and deep leagues.

 

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): Smith filled in as the Giants’ full-time tight end in week 12 with Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison both sidelined. If both are out again, Smith would make a really interesting spot play this week. The Packers have given up a 60-yard receiving day to a tight end in 5 straight games and coughed up 5 scores to the position in those games. I wouldn’t expect a monster game out of Smith after he averaged just 3.4 yards per catch last week, but he should have a great chance at 5+ catches if both Ellison and Engram sit again. He could be a steal in DFS tournaments at just $2,900 on DraftKings.

 

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): There is a chance the Vikings play without Adam Thielen again on Monday, and the Seahawks allow the 4^th-most TE points per game. Seattle has surrendered big fantasy days to 2^nd tier and lower tight ends CJ Uzomah (4-66), Gerald Everett (7-136), and Ricky Seals-Jones (3-47-1). It may be tough to pull the trigger on Smith given that we won’t know Thielen’s status until Monday, but he could be a great option for Monday showdown DFS slates ($3,200 on DraftKings), and could be a decent fallback option if you have Thielen set to play in a flex spot.

 

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 13: @KC): With the injury to Hunter Renfrow, look for the Raiders’ plans moving forward to include more 2-tight end sets. The Chiefs allow the 5^th-most TE points per game and Moreau costs the minimum on DraftKings. While Darren Waller is the most likely Raider to take advantage of the matchup, Moreau has had a knack for getting in the end zone. He’s scored every other game for the past 8 weeks, and while that’s hardly predictive this would be the week he’d be due for a score if the pattern holds.

 

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): The Cowboys have started to get Pollard at least slightly more involved of late, but he still has averaged just 3 touches per game in the Cowboys’ 5 losses. Luckily for him the ‘Boys are favored by a touchdown on Thursday. I wouldn’t roll Pollard out there in season long leagues. There is a very real chance that the Cowboys streak of losing to every winning team they play continues, but if you think the Vegas line is about right Pollard has a chance to be a dangerous cheap option for Thanksgiving day DFS tournaments. The Bills rank 26^th in run defense DVOA.

 

That’s all I’ve got for the Thanksgiving slate. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. Keep in mind there are 3 games on Thursday with the first starting at 11:30 AM CT, so make sure your lineups are set in time. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Have a safe and happy holiday, and as always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

 

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

2 TDs in 21 Seconds

 

Derrick Henry sure loves to play against the Jaguars. In 8 career games against them, his team is 6-2, and he has 857 yards from scrimmage and 10 total touchdowns. He especially loves to play against them at home – he has 397 rush yards and 6 TDs in the last 2 Jaguars/Titans games in Nashville. On Sunday, he even was able to score 2 TDs in just a 21 second span, accounting for 100% of the Titans offense on two consecutive drives. With 10:51 left in the 3^rd quarter, the Titans started a drive from their own 26 and Henry promptly took the first snap 74 yards for a score. On the ensuing kickoff, the Jaguars fumbled and the Titans recovered on the 7-yard line. The next snap, Henry took it right in to the end zone, to give him 20.1 fantasy points over the course of 21 seconds of game time – not bad! Hell, the rest of the team got involved in the fun on their very next possession just a couple of minutes later. Ryan Tannehill connected with A.J. Brown on a short pass and Brown did the rest of the work, scoring a 65-yard TD, completing a run by the Titans that saw them score 28 points in just over 6 minutes of game time.

 

2 of the Top 8 QBs

 

In our drinkfive.com league, only 2 of the top 8 QBs so far in Week 12 are owned by teams. This is a 10-team league, so admittedly Baker Mayfield should be owned, but I dropped him over a month ago and he’s been a FA ever since. But I digress – I was amazed to find the average ownership of the top 8 QBs to be only 47.5%. This is the kind of stat that you find early in the season while everyone is getting used to a new year, not in Week 12 when we’re all fighting for playoff spots. Leading the way was Ryan Tannehill, the only QB to break 30 points (so far) this week. He had 2 touchdowns through the air and added 2 more on the ground. Following him was Sam Darnold who also had 2 through the air and found the end zone via his feet as well. Raise your hand if you thought Tannehill and Darnold would be the QB1 and QB2 of this week. If your hand is up, you’re a damn liar, or you can see the future.

 

3 Games Over 150 Yards Receiving

 

Chris Godwin was the highest scoring positional player (non-QB) of the bunch on Sunday, putting up 184 yards and 2 scores via some of the most impressive catches of the week. Godwin is the only player other than Tannehill to break the 30-point mark in standard scoring, and he’s now got 3 games with at least 150 receiving yards this season. If you combine this with Mike Evans’ 3 games of at least 180 yards this year, you have the first pair of Bucs teammates to break 1000 yards in a season, as well as the first teammates anywhere to each have 3 games of 150+ yards in a season. In a down year at the position, these two have absolutely dominated, constantly remaining in the top 3 – they’re currently WR1 (Godwin) and WR3 (Evans).

 

104 Receptions in 11 Games

 

One wide receiver who is not experiencing a down year is Michael Thomas, who already has a stat line that anyone would be proud of for an entire season. He’s currently sitting at 104 receptions, 1,242 yards and 6 TDs, and he still has 5 games to go! The receptions and yards are both leading the NFL, and it’s not really close. He has 23 receptions more than the 2^nd highest total (DeAndre Hopkins) and 171 receiving yards more than Chris Godwin, who comes in 2^nd there. Thomas is still on pace to hit 150 receptions on the season, which is probably a record that can stand for quite some time. He is averaging over 100 catches per year now in his first 4 seasons, and has topped 1130+ yards in each of those seasons as well. We’re watching the very beginning of what can certainly be a hall-of-fame career, and damn is it exciting. I suspect he will be the first WR off the board for years to come in fantasy drafts.

 

21 Fantasy Points for the D/ST

 

Congrats to the Washington Redskins for managing to score 19 points and win a game without an offensive or defensive TD. They did manage one score on a kickoff return in a play that looked like it could have been a disaster but turned into a touchdown, all credit to Steven Sims for that run. The Redskins now have 2 wins, all but ensuring the Bengals the first pick in the 2020 draft, up 2 games with just 5 left to play. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are trying to figure out how to win. The team is 3-7-1 this year and they have had a lead in every single game this season. It’s hard to find things to be encouraged by on both teams. The Lions are trotting out Jeff Driskel and Bo Scarbrough, who had an OK day but his fantasy numbers were marred by a fumble. Meanwhile, the Dwayne Haskins finally got a win, but he was too busy celebrating with fans to realize the game hadn’t actually ended and was nowhere to be found to take a knee to actually end it. The reactions at the end of the game to this were basically what I’d expect from a 2-9 team that had to fire their coach this year.