Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
47.80 Fantasy Points
Derrick Henry has set a new high-water mark for the 2018 fantasy football season, taking 17 carries and converting them into 238 yards and 4 TDs. That's 14 yards per carry for those of you counting at home. His touchdowns went for 3, 99, 16 and 54 yards and his 99-yarder tied a record held by Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett, which hadn't been matched since it was first set in 1982. The rest of the Titans combined for 15 carries for just 26 yards and Marcus Mariota barely needed to do more than just hand it to Henry. He was a one-man wrecking crew, accounting for all of the Titans TDs. Henry's 47.8 points were the most in fantasy football since way back in week 4, when Mitch Trubisky threw for 6 TDs. There were 4-40 point performances in the first 4 weeks of the season, and then not another until 10 weeks later. Heck, even Amari Cooper's incredible (and personally heartbreaking) 39.70 point performance is the most points in the last 10 weeks, aside from Henry's game Thursday night.
368 Passes without an INT
Aaron Rodgers has just 1 INT on the season, which isn't really a good look for those people blaming Rodgers for the decline of the Packers. Rodgers is just fine, thank you - throwing an INT on just 0.2% of his pass attempts. This was highlighted Sunday when Rodgers threw a TD to Randall Cobb in the 3rd quarter and broke Tom Brady's streak of consecutive passes without an interception. Rodgers went on to finish the game cleanly, and now the streak sits at 368 consecutive passes since his last INT. Rodgers' last pick came in week 4 when the Packers shut out the Bills. I'd like to think he threw a sympathy pick for Josh Allen, just to help the rookie feel like he belongs. Most importantly, the Packers got a win with their new interim coach, Joe Philbin - who to me is the boring version of Hue Jackson. The Packers ran the ball a whole 25 times on Sunday, which were the most since they beat Miami. What a coincidence, that's the last time they won a game too.
210 Receiving Yards
George Kittle had 210 receiving yards and a TD on Sunday, and completed a fantasy football trifecta on Sunday. The highest scoring WR, RB and TE all beat out the highest scoring QB. Kittle's day could have been much better, considering he was only targeted once in the second half. The 49ers were leading, and did win, but not without sweating a little. Kittle was also only 5 yards away from breaking the record for TE receiving yards in a game - a record held by Shannon Sharpe of the Broncos - Kittle's opponent that very day! It would have been a great time, but still, Kittle probably led a lot of fantasy teams to victory with the third highest point total of the week, a cool 27.00. Also in this game, rookie Bradley Chubb got his 12th sack of the year, which breaks his teammate Von Miller's team record of 11.5, set back in 2011. Of course, Miller is probably fine with it - he still has more than Chubb this year with 13.5.
101 Rush Yards
Since returning from injury, Josh Allen has been unleashed as a rushing QB, and the results are amazing. In the last 3 weeks, Josh Allen has 335 rushing yards, and he would have 3 consecutive 100-yard games if he didn't take a knee at the end of the game week 12, when he finished with 99 yards. This is just one yard less than Lamar Jackson's total across four games since he took over as starter. Allen is averaging 10.8 yards per carry during this stretch and is has 25.8 fantasy points per game over the last three weeks. Both Jackson and Allen are showing tremendous production as soon as they get dropped into their offenses' starting role. Being a rushing QB just provides a great instant advantage and jolt to your team. It's a shame that there's no great rushing QBs out there that a team once in the playoff hunt could have turned to once they had not one, but two QBs break their leg. Total shame. One with a much better TD:INT ratio than Mark Sanchez would be real nice.
582 Total Passing TDs
I would be remiss if I didn't give props to Tom Brady, who broke Peyton Manning's combined regular season & playoff passing TD mark on Sunday. Brady now has 582 total TDs, 511 regular season, 71 playoffs. By comparison, Manning has 539 & 40 - I'm sure that Tom is fine with having made up the difference during the playoffs. Brady did have to break the record on a bittersweet day, one where the end of both the first and second half went quite wrong for the Patriots. At the end of the first half, Brady took a sack with no timeouts left, thus blowing his team's chance for a FG as time expired. That's an uncharacteristic mistake, but at least Brady doesn't get blame for the second half. Kenyan Drake wound up scoring on a 69 yard double lateral play. That's the longest play to end an NFL game in the Super Bowl era and definitely swung some fantasy games and wrecked some parlays. Brady now has 10 losses in Miami, and it's probably the only place where he actually has a losing record.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
29.24 Fantasy Points
Once again, Derrick Henry led all RBs in fantasy points - this time it was a much more reasonable point total. Henry has a whopping 408 yards and 6 TDs over the last two weeks. If you started him these last two weeks, then you're probably looking at a championship matchup next week. Those numbers also account for basically half of his entire production in the 2018 season, so it's no surprise if he was riding your bench last week and you didn't want to chase points this week. Either way, it's been an impressive two weeks for Henry, and perhaps he's starting to live up to the potential he was touted to have coming out of college. This week, el "Tractorcito" will be taking on the Redskins, whom have fallen to the middle of the pack in rush defense after starting strong. Might as well fire up Henry and ride this hot streak while you still can.
142 Rush Yards
Steelers backup RB Jaylen Samuels put up a total of 172 yards from scrimmage in a tough win against the Patriots, a team that the Steelers haven't beaten since 2011. His 142 rush yards were the first time that the Steelers had a player cross the 100 rushing yard threshold since week 9 in Baltimore. Samuels' performance once again shows that it's the offensive line of the Steelers that is the real MVP here. It was the difference in a game that featured two perennial giants that have seen better days. Adding to the fun was Samuels' eligibility as a TE in Yahoo leagues. He was by far the highest scoring TE of the week, and only one of two players to hit double digits. The other player was Garrett Celek, owned in 0% of leagues. Now, the Patriots are in line to have to play during the wild-card weekend for the first time since 2009. Finally, someone else is getting a bye in the AFC.
4 of the top 8 TEs Owned in 0% of Leagues
OK, it's getting ridiculous at the TE position this year. Not only is it hard to get any kind of consistency at the TE position (the TE10 scored just 5.4 points), there are guys every week doing all the scoring instead of the ones in starting fantasy lineups. Week 15 saw Garrett Celek, Jeremy Sprinkle, Darren Waller and Lee Smith all wind up in the top 8 scoring TEs this week. All of those guys are basically rounding errors to us, as they're all owned in 0% of leagues. To look at this from another angle, all 6 TEs owned in 90% of leagues or more (we're throwing Jaylen Samuels out of this) scored a combined 18.6 points, good for a 3.1 point average. Might as well throw out the TE slot and just make it another flex position in order to take a bit of the sadness out of fantasy football.
4 of the top 10 WRs Owned in 51% of Leagues or Less
OK, it's not quite as ridiculous at the WR position, but it's not exactly full of guys you expected to be putting up big games. Starting off, you've got Mike Williams (51% owned) who scored 3 TDs and a 2 pointer for the win, led the week with 29.5 fantasy points. Then you've got Robert Foster (14%), Robby Anderson (27%) and Chris Hogan (28%) all scoring a touchdown and finishing in the top 10 WRs. Whatever happened to standards? You also had Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen combine for a whopping 6 points - all of those guys are owned in 100% of Yahoo leagues. We've said it for a while now at drinkfive, but WR performances really get inconsistent when you near the end of the season, so here's hoping you turned some of those early stars into RBs at some point this season.
8 of the top 8 RBs Owned and Started Everywhere!
Now here's a position with some consistency, and let me elaborate. These top 8 guys are all owned in at least 88% of leagues, with the exception of Damien Williams (67%), who is being used in leagues that are paying attention, at least. Weather is a factor somewhere almost every weekend in the NFL, and bad or cold weather definitely favors the run game over the passing game, but there's something else to this trend of RBs being better than WRs this time of year. Later in the season, you wind up with teams that are able to improve their offensive line, since the only true way to practice a run game is to play real games. This is how you wind up with 8 players scoring at least 20 points at one position, and it being at least mildly predictable. Rounding out the top 10, honorable mentions go to Kalen Ballage (nice 75-yard TD) and Wendell Smallwood, both owned in 14% or fewer Yahoo leagues.
What’s changed since last year? Let’s start with Joe Flacco as the starting QB of the Broncos, that’ll be interesting. And ringmaster John Elway rolled the dice on another young QB in Drew Lock, selected #42 overall in the rookie draft. They recently picked up the former Lion Theo Riddick, though he has a fractured shoulder to work through (6-8 weeks), but the biggest offensive boon from a fantasy standpoint may come from rookie TE Noah Fant (TE20), who has been compared to a Jimmy Graham / Aaron Hernandez / Eric Ebron type of receiving Tight End.
Who is the breakout/3rd year WR on the team? Broncos’ receivers beyond Emmanuel Sanders (WR45) are a bit of a jumble right now (he’s the only WR on the roster that has had a 45-catch season in the NFL), but signs point to 2nd year Courtland Sutton (WR38, drafted round 2, 2018) breaking out as he transitions to the #1 WR on the Broncos. 704 yards and 4 TDs on 42 receptions last year could lead to bigger and better, especially since he was pushed in as a rookie to fill the shoes of Demariyus Thomas after Thomas was traded to the Texans in late October.
Who is a sleeper you can draft? Although his ADP is still very low, I’m hearing whispers from Denver beat reporters that Royce Freeman (10th round ADP, RB39) will have an increased workload in 2019 – splitting time or even taking most of Phillip Lindsay’s (5th round ADP, RB22) short-yardage and goal-line touches. This is not to say that Lindsay won’t have a good season – just that he’s likely being overvalued whereas Freeman should outperform his ADP.
What stud can you draft without hesitation? Phillip Lindsay is currently the highest drafted Bronco with an ADP of 42 overall, but I would not consider him a stud – therefore Denver is currently bereft of any surefire game-winning players that you could draft with near 100% certainty in my mind.
Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? One player that may go undrafted in some leagues but could also fit the ‘sleeper’ tag and will be picked up on the waiver wire at some point during the season (early on, probably) is Daesean Hamilton (20th round ADP, WR66). Hamilton ended the year averaging 9.5 targets over his last 4 games and will be the primary slot receiver for the Broncos. He could easily eclipse Courtland Sutton (and did last year as Sutton did not take off strong from the starting line), but will never be a #1 receiver (comps to Steve Johnson of the Bills who had several seasons of around 80 receptions for 1000+ yards).
Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Noah Fant is more than likely the only rookie this year that will have a fantasy impact. Currently being drafted as the 20th TE off the board, he will score some TDs and be a waiver wire fill-in at the very least. QB Drew Lock is not likely to play this season unless there is an injury to Joe Flacco, but that’s certainly a possibility, and round 6 WR flier Juwann Winfree is a developmental prospect who could be good down the road but doesn’t profile as impactful this season.
What’s changed since last year? The Chiefs picked up WR Mecole Hardman (4.33-second 40-yard dash, yipes! 18th round ADP, WR61) in round 2, and RB Darwin Thompson (19th round ADP, RB60) in round 6 this year’s NFL draft. They signed free agent and former Jaguar Carlos Hyde (12th round ADP, RB44), and they were able to keep Tyreek Hill (ADP 17, WR6) out of jail.
Who is the breakout/3rd year WR on the team? I would say Sammy Watkins (9th round ADP, WR34) but he already broke out with over 1,000 yards and 9 TDs in 2015. 4th year WR Demarcus Robinson (ADP 264, WR91) is a possible breakout candidate after the departure of Chris Conley (and previously Albert Wilson). Robinson will be going into a contract year and if Watkins can’t stay healthy again, Robinson should slot right in as the 3rd option in the passing game, behind Hill and Kelce. He has reportedly been working with Mahomes on deep-ball plays, so that’s certainly promising.
Who is a sleeper you can draft? If you’re paying attention to the current situation at RB, there is a war waging. Rookie Darwin Thompson could challenge Carlos Hyde for the backup role, or even supplant Williams as the starter in Kansas City if he continues to show issues with his hamstring. Thompson flashed some good talent during the first preseason game and the Chiefs have not been particularly loyal to RBs since Andy Reid took the reins. Reid has already stated that a RBBC approach may be the best for this season, casting a shadow over the whole situation. Thompson is a high-risk, high-reward pick.
What stud can you draft without hesitation? The Chiefs have a player being drafted within the top 15 of every offensive position. In fact, if you take out Damien Williams (ADP 25, RB14), you get 3 guys in Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce that are all arguably top 5. But Mahomes and Kelce both have ADPs of #1 for their respective positions, so they are clearly the answer here. If in a standard draft only starting 1 QB, the most valuable over replacement player (VORP) award goes to Travis Kelce.
Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? There’s not much to work with here, but again I look at Darwin Thompson as a guy that will likely go undrafted unless chosen as a sleeper, and there is a high likelihood that either Damien Williams or Carlos Hyde have some kind of injury that will allow Thompson to climb up the depth chart, at least for a short time. Whoever the top RBs are on KC on any given Sunday, they will both hold fantasy value.
Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? I’ve covered Darwin Thompson – Mecole Hardman was being hyped up as a possible Tyreek Hill replacement/fill-in if Hill was to be disciplined by the NFL for issues off the field in the offseason. Hill was not suspended and Hardman will likely not have a fantasy relevant role in the current offense, barring injury, etc.
What’s changed since last year? Tyrod Taylor was added and will serve as a great backup QB, and Tyrell Williams was released and picked up by the Raiders. Antonio Gates is again a free agent, and as long as Hunter Henry is healthy, this could be the first season that the Chargers won’t have Gates on their roster since 2003.
Who is the breakout/3rd year WR on the team? This one is easy. 3rd year WR Mike Williams (ADP 61, WR25) had 10 TDs in 2018 on 66 targets (43 receptions for 664 yards), but the departure of Tyrell Williams will open more targets for him in the offense immediately. The fact that the Chargers didn’t go out to get more receivers shows trust in his new role as the solid #2 WR. Williams played all 16 games last year after struggling a little with injuries in his rookie season.
Who is a sleeper you can draft? Melvin Gordon (ADP 23, RB13) is holding out for a larger contract, and has officially requested a trade out of Los Angeles. Scary stuff. If the two sides come to an agreement and all is well, Austin Ekeler (8th round ADP, RB34) will still have value as one of the better backups with pass-catching ability out of the backfield, but Justin Jackson (17th round ADP, RB57) is a sleeper candidate that could give you an RB2/3 with the last pick of the draft. The question is, will Gordon’s situation be resolved or not? It’s currently pushing his ADP down further each week.
What stud can you draft without hesitation? The top drafted player on the Chargers is Keenan Allen (ADP 28, WR11), and there is no reason why he shouldn’t finish the season with around 100 receptions, 1200 yards, and 6 TDs, just as he has for the previous two seasons. He has also not missed a game since 2016. Draft Allen confidently in all formats.
Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Travis Benjamin (ADP 291, WR99) should be able to secure the #3 WR spot behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and in an offense where Phillip Rivers has thrown for more than 4,000 yards 6 years in a row, Benjamin could absolutely be a waiver wire fill-in as a WR4/5 in some weeks this season.
Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Chargers drafted QB Easton Stick in round 5 as a developmental pick and possible successor to Phillip Rivers, but he’s not fantasy relevant at this point. No other offensive picks to mention this year.
What’s changed since last year? There’s been quite a few changes in Oakland – perhaps they’re getting ready for the big change to Las Vegas, but I digress. The big move for the Raiders was to acquire Antonio Brown from the Steelers for a 3rd and 5th round pick. At the time, it seemed like a steal. Now it seems like the Steelers might have the last laugh. They also signed Tyrell Williams, formerly of the Chargers. Derek Carr’s favorite target last season, Jared Cook, is no longer on the team – but I think the new toys at WR should go a long way in consoling him. Finally, the Raiders used one of their three first round picks on a RB, Josh Jacobs from Alabama.
Who is the breakout/3rd year WR on the team? The best breakout contender on the Raiders is JJ Nelson. This doesn’t mean that we’ve forgotten Tyrell Williams, it’s just that he basically already broke out in 2016 with over 1000 yards. But back to Nelson – he’s a burner who was drafted to the Cardinals back when Bruce Arians was the coach. He fits systems where you can go deep and take shots down the field. That’s not quite what the Raiders have been in the past, but with the other additions at WR, it’s certainly the direction that the team is heading this year.
Who is a sleeper you can draft? Currently, Hunter Renfrow (ADP 375, WR113) is not being drafted, but could find his way into a big role this season. As long as he’s not singing, he has looked pretty good on Hard Knocks and seems to be incorporated into the offense already. It helps that basically every WR is new to the team this year. Renfrow is listed on the depth chart as the starting slot receiver, so expect him to see some looks early, especially since Carr likes to throw it over the middle.
What stud can you draft without hesitation? Based on the advice of our resident Raiders expert, Tad Bukowski, he has stated firmly and unequivocally that Antonio Brown is still the stud WR that we all remember from years past. He’s currently sitting at ADP 22 (WR11) which is his cheapest draft cost since he was a rookie. Of course, that’s due to his new surroundings, but hey, AB is AB and it’s hard to argue against his six straight seasons with over 100 catches. He’s scored 67 touchdowns during that time as well.
Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Two guys that you can check out – Hunter Renfrow mentioned above) and Darren Waller, who was signed off the Ravens practice squad. Waller is currently the starting TE on the depth chart and has an ADP of 322 (TE27), so he’s likely to be a streaming TE option for the early part of the season. If he can fill the Jared Cook role from last season, then Waller is going to be fantasy relevant for sure. As for Renfrow, he will likely be on the waiver wire unless there’s a Raiders fan in your league – but he isn’t likely to stay there long.
Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The two main rookies on this team are Josh Jacobs (ADP 36, RB21) and Hunter Renfrow. The rest of the early picks the Raiders had were for the defense. Jacobs should lead the backfield in carries this season and is currently looked at as an RB2/3 and will likely be in most starting fantasy lineups this season. Renfrow has a ways to go to be fantasy relevant this season, but he is Tad’s pick on the Raiders to rise the ranks quickly and be a contributor to this offense.
One-thousand, five hundred and twenty entries are all that’s between me and early retirement. It took 15 weeks to whittle the field of 1275 down to one in last year’s pool, so I should have my work cut out for me. I decided on two entries this year (mainly to make sure I survive week 1). The first few weeks of the season can be some of the toughest to predict, that’s why a quarter to half of all entrants usually drop out in these first few games. I was listening to an odds making expert on the radio suggesting picking weak teams in the first week to save the premium teams for later and went on to suggest taking the Cardinals over the Lions. I however do not subscribe to this philosophy and actually will pick the Lions in that game.
I say - don't make it hard until you have no choice. My picks this week are the Seattle Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles. Those two teams are the biggest favorites at 9.5 and 10 respectively and are both playing their games at home. We have been shown nothing in the preseason from anyone this year so I will assume that the Redskins and Bengals will still suck.