Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

22 Rush Yards, Team Leader

Alex Smith led the Washington Redskins with a whopping 22 yards rushing, all on one scramble in the 2nd quarter. The Redskins came into the game with the 8th best rushing attack in the league, fronted by a resurgent Adrian Peterson. The Falcons came into the game as one of the league's worst rush defenses (20th in Yards, 30th in TDs), so Peterson's whopping 1.9 yards per attempt were a big disappointment. Smith did manage to find Maurice Harris in a big way. Harris's 10 catches for 124 yards is better than he's ever gotten in an single year. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan, usually a very average QB outdoors, really stepped it up with 29 fantasy points, the third best QB total of the week. Even Julio Jones finally found the end zone, his first time this season. Jones is 2nd in yardage, while managing just 11th in fantasy points. Only he and Keenan Allen make the top 30 of fantasy WRs with 1 TD reception.

151.9 QB Rating

This week's QB rating leader isn't Mahomes or the aforementioned Ryan, who had an excellent day. It's not even Drew Brees, though his 137.0 rating was impressive. No, I'm talking about the one and only Nick Mullens, a guy that NONE of you (or us) had heard about before Thursday night. The undrafted free agent couldn't ask for a better or less caring opponent than the current iteration of the Oakland Raiders. Mullens averaged 14.6 yards per pass attempt, had a better than a 72% completion rate and threw for 3 TDs on only 22 attempts. Along the way, Mullens proved the George Kittle is a top TE, regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Kittle has the 2nd most points overall at his position, thanks to a few of his peers having a bye week. Regardless of that, it's an impressive spot for a guy whose ADP was 129, basically Mr. Irrelevant in a lot of drafts. Word is that Mullens will start again next week against the Giants, an easy matchup. The following week the 49ers play the Bucs, I could easily see Mullens earning the starting job for the rest of the season, if he can keep playing like he did on Thursday night.

996 Rushing Yards

Tom Brady seems obsessed with getting to 1000 rushing yards, and was within one yard on Sunday night, prompting everyone to assume he was going to sneak for a TD. Instead, the Packers got a surprising, but ultimately futile, fourth-down goal-line stand. In the end, Brady wasn't going to hold any milestones, due to his ultimate rushing nemesis: taking a knee at the end of games. Three kneel-downs have left him at 996 career rushing yards. In his career, with a lead and less than 2 minutes to go, Brady has 135 rushing attempts for a net of -115 yards. By comparison, famous non-runner Peyton Manning has -104 yards in 137 carries in the same game situation. Peyton even managed to leave Denver with a net of -55 yards. I'm getting off track, but maybe that's because the Patriots and Packers left me with nothing to talk about fantasy-wise. A matchup between two of the best QBs in history left us with a combined 3 passing TDs and 553 passing yards between them. No, I'm not counting Julian Edelman's 37 yard toss to James White.

8 Consecutive 300 Yard Passing Games

At the risk of becoming a Patrick Mahomes/Adam Thielen/Todd Gurley column, I'm going to squeeze in a quick update on all three players in one blurb. First off, the good - Patrick Mahomes threw for 375 yards and another 3 TDs, extending his league lead in both categories. His interceptions now stand at 7 in the last 5 games. He's thrown at least one in each of those games, and that's a streak I'm sure he's eager to end. He is now just one game from tying Drew Brees' all time record of 9 straight games with 300 passing yards. Next week he faces the Cardinals, who are 7th in the league giving up passing yards, so matching Brees on this record won't be easy. Next, the bad - Adam Thielen, who went into the day tied with Calvin Johnson for 8 straight 100 yard receiving games. Thielen managed just 22 yards on 4 catches, though he found the end zone for the 6th straight game, saving his day for fantasy owners, but ending his streak. Finally the ugly, and I mean the Rams who finally lost a game. OK, ugly is a bit of a stretch, but Todd Gurley did put up his worst game of the season - just 13.90 points (also a stretch to call ugly). The silver lining for Gurley owners is that he is now far more likely to be playing for real in week 16, since the Rams no longer have control of home field in the playoffs.

2 of the Top 5 WRs Owned in Less than 2% of Yahoo Leagues

OK, this title is a mouthful, but what I'm getting at is that Adam Humphries (2% owned) and Curtis Samuel (1% owned) both finished in the top 5 points at WR this week (and for once, I don't expect anyone on Monday night to ruin those numbers). Humphries led his team in receiving, catching all 8 of his targets and finding the end zone twice. Amazingly for the Bucs, Mike Evans caught just one of his 10 targets. Sometimes it's a little Fitzmagic, sometimes it's a bit Fitztragic. Your mileage may vary. What I'm getting at is that RBs are just astoundingly more reliable this year. To find a player who's similarly available in Yahoo leagues, you must go to the RB18 of the week, Kapri Bibbs, owned in 3% of leagues, who managed 9.5 points on 4 touches. A look at the top 18 WRs would also include Cordarrelle Patterson (5%), Maurice Harris (0%), and Josh Doctson (8%). I suppose the right move here is to trade your unreliable WRs for some solid RBs before your league's trade deadline.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've made it to the double-digit weeks, which means we're in the home stretch of the fantasy regular season. Week 9 saw the surprising debut of Nick Mullens, and an apocalyptic performance by Sam Darnold against the Dolphins. DJ Moore's purported breakout didn't quite go according to plan, but Calvin Ridley found his way back into the end zone and Marquez Valdes-Scantling continued his mid-season surge. Let's take a look at what to expect in week 10, and which rookies could help you improve your playoff positioning this week.

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 10: @SF): Of course you're starting Barkley in season-long leagues, but he should be a chalky play in DFS cash games this week as well. The 49ers should let him have a solid receiving day since only 4 teams have allowed more RB receptions and only 4 have allowed more RB receiving TDs on the year. Barkley has been the engine of the Giants' offense, and he's a strong RB1 this week once again.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Duke Johnson is the more popular name after last weekend's 9-catch, 2-score game, but Chubb still notched more than 20 carries and faces a Falcons' defense that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA. There's room in this matchup for both Chubb and Duke to be solid RB2s.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 10: @Cle.): Ridley got back into the end zone last week, and he's a reasonable WR3 option this week. The Browns aren't a great matchup, ranking 2nd in pass defense DVOA, but they have allowed the 11th-most WR points per game (all point totals and ranks are based on PPR scoring). This isn't a matchup to run away from. Ridley should be a solid WR3, but I wouldn't hold it against you if you had 3 really solid options to play over him and sat him.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Atlanta has allowed the 3rd-most QB points per game on the year. They've allowed 6 of 7 QBs faced to reach 300 passing yards, and 6 of 7 to reach at least 20 fantasy points. Mayfield has thrown multiple TDs in 3 consecutive games. Mayfield should be a high floor QB2 this week with some appeal as a back-end QB1 in 12-team or deeper leagues.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Sony should be active this week, but the Pats could ease him back in after the success Cordarrelle Patterson had at running back against Green Bay. The Titans are a tough matchup, allowing the 4th-fewest RB fantasy points per game, but it'll be tough to sit him if it looks like he'll get his usual role back. Sony tallied at least 92 rushing yards and a TD in each of the 3 full games he played.

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 10: @Chi.): The Lions' offense really sputtered in their first game after dealing away Golden Tate. It was a tough matchup against a strong Vikings' defense, but things don't get much easier for Kerryon and company this week in Chicago. Johnson still has some upside, but the Bears are allowing the fewest RB fantasy points per game, and Theo Riddick's return has put a damper on KJ's receiving opportunities. Kerryon should be viewed as an upside flex play this weekend.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Mia.): Valdes-Scantling has been running as the number 2 WR for the Packers, even with Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison back on the field, and Allison suffered a season-ending groin injury last Sunday night. I'm not quite ready to go all-in on MVS due to his reliance on big plays to post fantasy production, but he's managed to reach double-digit scoring in 4 straight games. The number 2 WR in any Aaron Rodgers offense is a fantasy threat. The Dolphins are allowing just the 9th-fewest WR points per game, but MVS should be a boom-or-bust WR3 option.

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 10: @KC): The Cardinals will undoubtedly be throwing a lot in this one as 17(!)-point underdogs to Kansas City. Kirk has been the most consistent fantasy WR in Arizona, averaging just under 13 PPR points per game in his past 6 contests. There's always some risk in this low-floor offense, especially now that there is a new coordinator who may try to get DJ and Fitz more involved, but Kirk's upside makes him a decent WR3 option in deeper PPR formats.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Moore was a big letdown in a great matchup last Sunday, but he may have been limited by Carolina playing from way ahead most of the day. I wouldn't expect the same result in the Steel City. Pittsburgh isn't as tantalizing a matchup as Tampa, but it's not far behind. The Steelers allow the 6th-most WR points per game. I don't know if this will come up in the game, but the Steelers also have allowed 10 yards per carry to WRs on the 4 attempts they've faced, and Moore is averaging 17 yards per rush on 7 carries. I'd expect a carry or 2 for DJ again. If you were burned by Moore last week, you may hesitate to roll the dice again, but I would be willing to go back to that well.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Nick Mullens, SF (Wk. 10: vs. NYG.): Mullens technically isn't a rookie after spending all of 2017 on the 49ers practice squad, but I'll make an exception and include him after his breakout NFL debut last Thursday. I'd be surprised if Mullens manages to replicate his performance this week. The Giants allowed fewer than 240 passing yards in 5 games out of 8, and a total of just 5 TD passes in those 5 games. There is some appeal in deeper 2-QB leagues or as a cheap DFS tournament option, but he carries a ton of risk.

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Darnold fell flat on his face in a plus matchup last week, and gets a much tougher one this Sunday. The Bills have allowed 10 fantasy points or fewer to 4 of the last 7 QBs they've faced, and they've allowed more than 1 passing touchdown to just one of them. Darnold isn't worth the risk even in 2QB leagues this week.

RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): There is some deep league PPR upside for Hines, but Jacksonville allows just the 7th-fewest RB points per game and has given up the 2nd-fewest RB receptions. Wilkins is stuck behind Marlon Mack on early downs. Mack's big performances late have made Wilkins useless for fantasy purposes.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 10: @LAR): Even if Chris Carson sits, Penny just isn't getting enough opportunities to be a useful option. Mike Davis is going to see the lion's share of the work if Carson is out.

WR Tre'Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 10: @Cin.): Tre'Quan has struggled to breakout as the Saints' WR2, and New Orleans added Dez Bryant this week. Smith may still work as the number 2 guy this week, and there's always big potential as the WR2 in this offense, but he's got no more than 3 catches in a game and has only topped 44 yards once. If you're considering using him, keep a close eye on the expected playing time for Dez this week.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 10: @Phi.): I was tempted to call Gallup a sleeper this week, but it's hard to get too excited about his upside in this offense even if he's the WR2. Philly has allowed the 4th-most WR points per game, and Gallup has averaged 3 catches for 66 yards in the past 2 games. There's some upside if you want to roll the dice on him as a DFS punt option, but I probably wouldn't consider him for much more than that.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Goedert is basically a TD dart throw this week against a defense that has allowed just 2 tight end scores on the year. He's posted a total of 10-111-2 over the past 5 games.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Herndon's role has been growing, but he faces a tough matchup this week. The Bills rank 4th in pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends, and have allowed an average of 2-26 per game over the past 5 games and gave up 2 scores to the position in that span. You're basically praying for a TD if you play him.

Deep-League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 10: @KC): The Chiefs have been improving steadily against the pass, so Rosen is probably no more than a QB2 in the deepest of leagues, but Rosen has had an extra week to get ready for this game and the new offensive coordinator had an extra week to get David Johnson more involved. As improved as they are, Kansas City has still allowed the 6th-most QB points per game. Rosen has a reasonable chance to post his best fantasy game of the year.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 10: @Cle.): Tevin Coleman seems to have a firm grasp on the receiving work out of the backfield, but Ito continues to play a significant role as a runner. He's an intriguing flex option this week against a Browns' team that has allowed a league-high 12 RB rushing scores and ranks 30th in run defense DVOA. He's a better option in non-PPR leagues.

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): This might not be the best week to run Adams out there in lineups with the Cowboys ranking 4th in run defense DVOA. Josh's recent success has come as a runner, not as a receiver. Still, his 9-61 rushing day before last week's bye should at least earn him a bigger role moving forward in a wide-open backfield. He's worthy of a stash this week, and decent desperation option in deep leagues.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Callaway's efficiency has been improving in the last couple weeks, and this is a prime matchup with the Falcons allowing the 3rd-most WR points per game. Antonio remains an upside option in deeper leagues.

WR DJ Chark, JAX (Wk. 10: @Ind.): Chark seemed to be ascending in this offense before the bye, posting 4 catches in back-to-back games. The matchup this week isn't enticing with the Colts ranking in the top-10 in the league at limiting WR points, but Chark is an intriguing stash in deeper leagues. He's got size and speed to burn, so his upside goes way up if the Jaguars start to utilize him downfield.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tough lineup decisions involving the rookies this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report and make sure you don't play any players who wind up being inactive. Feel free to reach out on twitter if you have specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re back after a 1-week hiatus, and it looks like we missed a pretty explosive week for some rookie receivers, not to mention the scintillating first start of Lamar Jackson’s career. Jackson won’t hold up for long if he keeps carrying the ball 27 times per game, but it worked at least in this one. Not to be outdone, DJ Moore and Tre’Quan Smith each put on a show in week 11. Christian Kirk finished the week as a top-20 option, Keke Coutee was in the top-30 for the week, and Courtland Sutton and Anthony Miller ended up in the top-40. Marcell Ateman and Trey Quinn were also each productive in their first real action of the season. Saquon kept being Saquon, Lindsay kept being Lindsay, but the rest of the rookie RB crop was quiet in week 11 outside of a breakout performance by unknown Gus Edwards. Will any of these trends continue this week? Let’s dive in and take a look…

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 12: @Phi.): You obviously know what to do with Saquon, but I wanted to give a little background on the matchup this week. The Eagles’ injury-riddled defense has allowed 31 RB points per game in their last 5 contests (all scoring and rankings are in PPR format). There are only 3 teams in the league that allow more than that per game for the year. The return of Timmy Jernigan this week might help Philly, but the Saquon show doesn’t take weeks off.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Like Philly’s, the Cincinnati defense has been crumbling of late. Over their past 8 games, the Bungles have coughed up more than 135 rushing yards per game and 9 rushing scores to RBs. Chubb should be a strong RB2 play in this one.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Michel should’ve had a chance to get healthier over New England’s bye last weekend, and he gets a great situation this week. The Pats are 9.5-point favorites on the road at the Meadowlands this week. The game script should be run-heavy and the Jets have a middling run defense that ranks 17^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Only 6 teams have allowed more rushing scores to backs than the Jets.

RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): Edwards should be a great option this week, especially in non-PPR formats. I did list Phillip Lindsay in the borderline category this week, but I’d be hard-pressed to start Edwards over him in a PPR league. With that said, I love Edwards this week. I can’t imagine the Ravens would go back to Alex Collins this week after the performance Edwards put together against the Bengals, and the Raiders have been shredded on the ground this year. Baltimore is a double-digit favorite, and Oakland has given up more than 100 running back rush yards in 8 of their last 10 games, and more than 150 in 4 of them. Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability from the QB position only serves to open up more lanes for Edwards. If you managed to get Gus on the wire this week, find a way to get him into your lineup.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Mayfield is nearly a must-start in 2-QB leagues this week, but he’s a borderline option in leagues where you start just one. Baker’s been really consistent over the past month-plus, and has seemed to turn a corner since Hue and Haley were fired. He’s thrown for multiple TDs in 4 straight starts, and has only turned the ball over twice in those games. Cincinnati has allowed the 2^nd-most QB points per game. Keep rolling with Baker in 2-QB formats until he gives you a reason not to.

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): Jackson was phenomenal in his first NFL start, and he gets rewarded with one of the easiest matchups imaginable. We already know what Jackson can do with his legs and his running ability, and this week he faces a Raiders team that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA and has allowed multiple passing scores in 9 of the 10 games they’ve played. Jackson is a high-upside QB2 this week with some borderline QB1 appeal in deeper leagues.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): I’d still lean toward starting Lindsay even though I listed him as a borderline option. I just want to emphasize that this is one of the tougher matchups he’ll face. The Steelers have allowed the 7^th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, and the Broncos have really failed to feature Lindsay as much as they should. He’s been hyper-efficient, averaging better than 5.5 yards per carry, but he’s received more than 15 carries in a game just twice all year, and has more than 3 receptions just twice as well.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. NO): It’s been a while since Calvin teased us with his string of blowup games in the season’s first few weeks. He’s shown a floor right around 7 points, but we’ve kind of lost the ceiling a bit. This week is as good as any to take a chance on him finding it again. The Saints have allowed more WR points per game than any other team, and the Falcons are likely to be throwing as 2-score underdogs. The risk of another floor game is still there, but Ridley is a reasonable upside WR3 this week.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Moore’s coming-out party last weekend was a blast, but Carolina’s passing volume is never a given. Cam Newton has thrown fewer than 30 times in 4 of Carolina’s 6 wins this year, and the Panthers are favored this week. He could see a bigger target share with Devin Funchess listed as questionable, and we’ve seen him flash the skills to be a big-time player in this league. If the volume is there, he should be a solid WR3 this week.

WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Smith had a huge breakout game last weekend against Philadelphia, but he looks iffy to play on Thursday night after missing Tuesday’s practice and getting in a limited session Wednesday. He revealed last Sunday that Drew Brees pulled him aside to tell him the reason he threw him the ball on his 2^nd TD catch was because he trusts him. That could just be a motivational tactic from Brees, or it could be a positive sign for Smith going forward. The Saints have so many mouths to feed in this offense that it leads to some low-floor performances. We’ve seen those with Tre’Quan a couple times in recent weeks. The Falcons do allow the 7^th-most WR points per game, so the matchup is ripe for another strong performance if Smith is able to play. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): The Lions corners outside of Darius Slay have struggled mightily in coverage this year. Several secondary receivers have torn this defense apart this season: Danny Amendola (6-84-1), David Moore (4-97-1), DJ Moore (7-157-1), Equanimeous St. Brown (3-89), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (7-68-1), Quincy Enunwa (6-63-1) and notably Miller himself (5-122-1) have all had strong days against this defense. I’d expect the Lions to be a little more aware of Miller this time around, and he’ll likely be catching passes from Chase Daniel rather than Mitch Trubisky, but he’s still a decent flex option in deeper leagues and has a ton of DFS tourney upside.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 12: @LAC): Rosen has made some strides in his rookie year. He’s made some big plays to Christian Kirk and had his first 3-TD game last week, but he’s still throwing for minimal yardage (just 2 games over 210 yards and peak of 252), and the Chargers have been stingy against the pass of late. They’ve allowed just 5 passing scores in their past 6 contests, and have allowed just 1 QB to top 250 yards passing and one to top 16 fantasy points in that span. Rosen isn’t the type to overcome that for a solid day.

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. NE): It’s looking more and more like Darnold is going to miss this game. He’s not practicing as of Wednesday, but I’d still steer clear if he does play. It’s possible the bye week got him straightened out (both physically and mentally), but I wouldn’t count on it. Darnold turned the ball over 4 times twice in his last 3 starts. There could be some garbage time upside for Darnold in this one with the Pats heavily favored, but you know better than to chase garbage time points.

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Allen looks set to return just in time to face one of the most fearsome pass defenses in the league, Jalen Ramsey and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA, and the Bills’ offense remains a dumpster fire. A rusty Josh Allen could get roughed up a bit in his return.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned with Phillip Lindsay above, the Steelers are a tough matchup for RBs, and Freeman is getting by on touchdowns alone. He hasn’t reached 40 rushing yards in a game or more than 10 fantasy points since week 4.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. NO): Smith has just 10 carries for 21 yards in the last two weeks, and the Saints allow the 4^th-fewest RB points per game. Ito continues to see some goal line work, but not enough that you can bank on it. He also isn’t seeing enough action in the passing game to offset his poor rushing performances. This game should be pass-heavy for Atlanta with the Saints favored by 12. It looks like more of a Tevin Coleman night for the Falcons backfield.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 12: @Car.): Penny should continue to work as the number 2 back behind Chris Carson this week. He’s been pretty efficient with his touches over the last 2 games, but the Panthers have allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game and rank a respectable 12^th in run defense DVOA. Penny has managed to top 6 PPR points just 3 times all year, and reached double-digits just once. The upside isn’t there for you to trust Penny unless something happens to Carson.

RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): Jordan Wilkins pleasantly surprised in week 11 by scoring a TD, but he and Hines still combined for just 9 carries and 3 targets in a game that the Colts won by 4(!) scores. This backfield is Marlon Mack’s show until further notice.

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 12: @LAC): This isn’t the best week to roll our Christian Kirk. The Chargers allow the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, and just one wide receiver has found the end zone against them in the past 5 games. Kirk’s role in this offense is secure, but his upside is severely limited this week.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Sutton has played pretty well over the past 3 games, averaging 3-71, but the QB play of Case Keenum holds this entire offense back, and the Steelers have been playing much improved pass defense of late. They’ve allowed fewer than 30 WR fantasy points in each of the last 4 contests. Only 2 teams in the league have allowed fewer than 30 per game on the year.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): Gallup is dealing with the suicide death of his brother from last weekend, and also has to get ready on a short week for a Thursday game. I’m surprised he’s going to play. Some people feel like it’s a welcome distraction from the grief to go play a game and not think about it. Brett Favre played one of the greatest games of his career after the death of his father, but I can’t imagine taking the field so soon after the death of an immediate family member and being able to focus on football. I wish Gallup all the best both on and off the field this week.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): The new coaching regime has opened up the game plan and gotten other weapons more involved in Cleveland (most notably Duke Johnson Jr.), and that’s made Callaway’s already low floor even lower. His stats haven’t dropped off much, but his targets have. In the 7 games prior to the coaching change, Callaway averaged 6.3 targets per game. He’s had just 7 total in the 2 games since the change. There may be some upside in DFS tournaments this week, but I would take my chances elsewhere.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): If you’re looking for spots to use Goedert in any format, you’re searching for the opportunities where he has the best chances of finding the end zone. In each game this year he’s either scored a TD and finished with double-digit fantasy points or failed to score 4 points. This week isn’t a prime opportunity for a touchdown. The Giants have allowed just one TE to hit paydirt all year.

TEs Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): These two might be a decent DFS dart throw if they were one guy, but individually there just isn’t enough upside to roll the dice, especially in tougher matchups. Only one team has scored double-digit points against Tennessee from the tight end position, and that was Zach Ertz and the Eagles.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): It’s pretty hard to trust much of the Philly offense after their putrid performance in week 11, but Adams was a bright spot. He continued to produce with limited touches, and now has averaged 7.6 carries and 53.6 yards per game in the last 3 (7 ypc). This week’s opponent, the Giants, have allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game and rank 20^th in run defense DVOA. The game script also should be much better for Adams with the Eagles favored by a touchdown. Adams should be a good option in deeper leagues and a bargain in DFS tournaments.

WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Bringing in Demaryius Thomas hasn’t affected Coutee the way I feared it would. Coutee posted a 5-77 line in his return from a hamstring injury, and the Titans are a good matchup for him this week. Tennessee ranks 24^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 12: @Min.): MVS could be in line for a bounce-back week after he burned a lot of fantasy owners in week 11. The Vikings rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing number 1 receiver, but just 25^th on throws to the number 2 guy. Xavier Rhodes probably has a lot to do with that. It might not be a great week to go for Davante Adams in DFS lineups, but Valdes-Scantling has some appeal in DFS tourneys in deeper fantasy formats.

WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 12: @Dal.): ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ from the 2018 draft made some noise in his first regular season action. It may be point chasing to point him out as a sleeper now, but this is a team that has really missed Chris Thompson, Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson this year. This team loves to throw to their slot receivers, as evidenced by the 15-176 that Maurice Harris tallied in weeks 9 & 10. Those numbers didn’t stop Quinn from supplanting him in week 11. Jamison Crowder could return this week, but Quinn should be a decent floor PPR option going forward in the same vein as Bruce Ellington or Cole Beasley.

WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Ateman is an intriguing stash in deeper leagues and in dynasty formats. Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant have shown time and again this year that they can’t be relied upon to produce or stay healthy, and Ateman’s 4-catch, 50-yard debut is already the 4^th-best receiving yardage total any Raider WR has posted in a game this season. He’s a big, raw, physical player who could make a splash down the stretch. The reason why I call Ateman a stash is because this week’s matchup is a tough one. Baltimore allows just the 6^th-fewest WR points per game, but the coast gets a little clearer after. The Chiefs, Steelers and Bengals are the opponents that follow, and the Raiders should be throwing a bunch in each game.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Herndon has turned into the clear top TE on this team over the course of the season, and the Pats are quietly struggling to defend the position this year. New England has allowed 6 tight end scores in the past 6 games, and at least 50 receiving yards to them in each contest as well. Herndon hasn’t caught for a ton of yards, but he’s reached 10 points or more 3 times in the past 5 games. He’s a back-end TE1 this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps with your toughest decisions involving rookies. This week is a critical one with only two weeks left before the fantasy playoffs begin. Make sure to double-check your lineups for any players with games on Thursday, and this especially goes for players with injury designations that play on the holiday. Kerryon Johnson, Chris Thompson and Marvin Jones have already been ruled out and Tre’Quan Smith, Mitch Trubisky and a host of others are questionable as well. Make sure you aren’t starting inactive players before going into your turkey comas on Thursday. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Two weeks ago, the Arizona Cardinals put up a gutsy performance defeating the San Francisco 49ers 18-15 at home while Larry Fitzgerald's son attended the state fair. Unfortunately, I watched some of this game. Now, fresh off their bye week, the Cardinals are poised to pick up their second straight victory when they travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. Just kidding! This Cardinals team could not beat the Chiefs if they had a million weeks to prepare!

Currently the Chiefs are sitting as 16.5 point favorites in this one. While the Browns did give them a little trouble last week in the first half keeping it within 6 points before ultimately getting blown out 37-21, Josh Rosen will suffer the same fate as Baker Mayfield. This is my clear cut pick for the week if you have the luxury of still using the Chiefs.

If you are not so lucky, I would recommend using the Chargers on the road vs. the Raiders. The team clearly quit on coach Jon Gruden last week in a touchdown-less blowout loss to the 49ers. If both those have been used I like this week as an opportunity to use an unreliable Jets team at home vs. the Bills.

Normally, I'd shy away from the Jets here as the Bills players have to see this as a rare game in which they have a chance of winning, But, with Darnold out that leaves the Jets with veteran QB Josh Mccown. The wiley vet will only have to outperform human interception machine Nathan Peterman, which means just complete more passes to your team than to your opponent. I'm just now reading Buffalo media being hopeful that freshly signed Matt Barkley will get the start. So in other words, they are hoping for a QB who doesn't know the offense to get the nod. Yikes!

Cheers,

Drink Five!