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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been an explosive first 2 weeks of the NFL season, but for the rookies it’s been a pretty disappointing start. Saquon Barkley has lived up to his considerable hype despite the Giants’ offensive line woes, but beyond him only Phillip Lindsay, Will Dissly, and Sam Darnold have shown consistent production so far. Two of those players are guys you probably hadn’t heard of before week 1, and the another one is a QB2 at best for fantasy purposes, which isn’t that useful for most leagues. There have been flashes from some of the more heralded rookies. Dante Pettis, DJ Moore, and Calvin Ridley have all made big plays, but need more consistent opportunities. Week 3 is yet another week where there aren’t many rookies I trust to start. There will come a point where more of them are productive, but in the meantime I’ll keep trying to identify some good guys to stash or take a shot on in DFS. Let’s dig into what to expect for week 3…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 3: @Hou.): Barkley is still an every week starter despite poor o-line play and substandard overall offensive play. He hasn’t been particularly efficient in the run game, but his usage in the passing game is going to make him a PPR star quickly. The Texans haven’t proven to be a matchup to avoid yet, and their pass rush with JJ Watt and Jadaveon Clowney should actually be a boost to Barkley’s upside this week catching dump off passes.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 3: @Bal.): Lindsay has started his career with 2 consecutive games with 100+ scrimmage yards. He’ll be hard pressed to make it 3 against a formidable Ravens’ defense that has allowed the 2^nd fewest RB points in the league so far, but the success he’s had so far at least has him in the conversation for a flex spot this week in spite of the matchup.

 

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 3: @Bal.): His goal line usage gives him value, but his lack of consistent playing time has turned him into a TD-dependent flex option until things change. Freeman was out-snapped by both Devontae Booker and Lindsay last week. Some of that was due to a negative game script, but it’s still a little troubling.

 

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Jarvis Landry is questionable and on a short week this week and Josh Gordon has been shipped off to New England. That leaves Callaway as potentially the number 1 receiver this week in Cleveland. He already saw his playing time jump from 17% of the snaps to 81% with Gordon out in week 2. There’s no reason to think that will drop this week. He’s explosive with the ball in his hands, and should be an intriguing flex option this week in deeper leagues. He’s looking at a huge role and reasonable matchup. Bump him up a little if Landry isn’t able to play.

 

TE Will Dissly, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Tight end has been a bit of a wasteland after a few elite options so far this season. Injuries to Delanie Walker and Greg Olsen haven’t helped. One surprising bright spot has been Dissly. He had a huge performance in week 1, and seemed to be following it with a pedestrian performance in week 2 until a late TD catch. Garbage time points still count, and he’ll remain the Seahawks’ leading TE. The Cowboys have allowed the 8^th-most PPR points to tight ends in the league in the first 2 weeks, so the matchup is a decent one. There are worse streamers out there than Dissly for this week.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 3: @Cle.): The Browns’ defense has been pretty solid against 2 pretty solid offenses. Darnold has been better than expected through his first 2 starts, but he’ll be a low-end QB2 this week at best.

 

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 3: @Min.): Allen was less than stellar in his first pro start, and this week he gets to face another quality defense on the road with his best offensive weapon either out or limited (Shady McCoy). The Vikings have limited two quality QBs, Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo, to an average of 12.5 fantasy points apiece. Allen is much worse than that duo, with much worse talent around him.

 

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 3: vs. NE): The Lions running game woes have continued into this season despite investing offseason resources in Kerryon and LeGarrette Blount. Kerryon has been seeing a respectable number of touches, but the production just hasn’t been there. He needs to start scoring touchdowns to really take off, but that will be tough on this team. Detroit has run 18 plays in the red zone this season. 17 of them were passes. The Lions’ defensive woes are real, and the Patriots will be playing angry after their letdown last weekend. I expect Detroit to be playing from behind again and abandoning the run early. It’s not a great spot to use Johnson.

 

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Carlos Hyde had an inefficient performance in week 2 despite finding the end zone. He tallied just 43 yards on 16 carries. With a few more performances like that, Chubb’s role is sure to grow, but I don’t see a big shift in the backfield split this week. It also doesn’t help that the Jets are an uninviting matchup for backs. I’d avoid starting Chubb this week.

 

RBs Jordan Wilkins & Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 3: @Phi.): The backfield roles are very up in the air after the return of Marlon Mack. Everyone played about the same amount in week 2, and I’d expect Mack to start getting more work going forward. Hines will still get some opportunities in the passing game, and Wilkins will probably still handle some carries this week, but you can’t count on enough usage for either one of them to start them with any confidence. We’ll need to see how things trend with all 3 backs healthy for another week or 2.

 

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Ito may be worth a stash in deeper leagues, but this is a bad week to roll the dice on him in DFS tournaments. The Saints have allowed just 4 running back receptions and the 3^rd-fewest RB points total through 2 weeks. Smith will get some usage behind Tevin Coleman as long as Freeman is out, but I’m not too optimistic for him in week 3.

 

RB Mark Walton, CIN (Wk. 3: @Car.): Walton is a player to keep an eye on this week with Joe Mixon sidelined for a bit, but I’m not ready to buy into him as a stash just yet. He should dress this week after being a healthy scratch in each of the first two weeks, but Gio Bernard saw the vast majority of the work in games Mixon missed last year, and I’d expect the same this year until the team shows me different. They did also sign Thomas Rawls this week, but I wouldn’t expect him to be much of a factor.

 

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 3: @Bal.): Sutton is trending in the right direction in terms of how many snaps he’s playing, but his production has been inconsistent. He’s going to have some weeks where his point totals spike, but as long as Demaryius and Manny Sanders are around he’s going to stay inconsistent. The matchup this week is against the formidable Ravens defense, so I wouldn’t bank on this being one of those spike weeks for Sutton.

 

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Kirk was used quite a bit more in week 2 than he was in week 1 (5 targets after just 2 in week 1), but it’s hard to even consider using him until the Cardinals’ offense starts playing better. I don’t see that happening until Josh Rosen is under center. If the offense continues to sputter, that could happen sooner than expected.

 

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 3: @Ari.): Miller certainly has shown some upside in the first 2 weeks, but to really make good on his promise he’s going to have to pass Taylor Gabriel on the depth chart, and he’s going to need some better play from Mitch Trubisky. As for week 3, the Bears are favored by nearly a touchdown and should lean on Jordan Howard’s running a bit more than they have so far. The passing volume won’t be high enough to take a chance on Miller.

 

Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Gallup is dealing with low snap and target counts, and an offense that leans on the rushing attack and slowing down the pace of the game. Until the passing attack starts to play at a higher level and Gallup starts playing more, he needs to be avoided in fantasy lineups.

 

TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 3: vs. Oak.): He’s seen just 2 targets in the first 2 weeks, and the Raiders have allowed the 4^th-fewest TE points in the league through 2 weeks.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 3: @Det.): The Lions have allowed over 170 rushing yards in each of the first 2 weeks. The usage split between Michel and Rex Burkhead is still a bit of a question mark going forward, but I like Michel’s chances of being heavily involved. The matchup is a great one, and he’ll be a sneaky DFS tournament play this week as long as Burkhead doesn’t get workhorse carries.

 

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Coach Pete Carroll stated that Chris Carson remains the starter after not playing him at all in the 4^th quarter on Monday night, but it looks like the window is opening for Penny to take on a bigger role. Carroll also expressed a desire to run the ball more this week, so there could be more carries to go around for everyone. Penny is also a better receiver than Carson, and Dallas has allowed a 45-yard receiver in each of the first 2 weeks. There’s a chance for Penny to make a nice impact in the passing game as well. I wouldn’t trust him in season-long leagues, but there is some DFS tournament upside here.

 

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Ridley got much more involved in week 2, seeing 3 more targets than Mohammed Sanu and scoring his first career TD. His increased usage also coincided with the Falcons finally seeming to exorcise some of their red zone demons. New Orleans has allowed the most receiving yards and TDs to wide receivers in the league through 2 weeks. It’s a great week to consider Ridley in DFS tournaments, or to take a shot on him as a flex in deeper leagues.

 

WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 3: @KC): Pettis’s status really depends on whether or not Marquise Goodwin is able to play this week. The matchup is a juicy one. The Chiefs have allowed the 3^rd-most WR points in the league so far, and Pettis will play major snaps if Goodwin sits again. He’ll be a dart throw in DFS if Goodwin plays, but I’d expect 6+ targets if Marquise is out again. Against this defense, that kind of work gives him WR3 upside.

 

WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 3: @TB): Washington did score his first TD last week, but caught just 1-of-5 targets for 14 yards in the process. That doesn’t sound like a promising performance, but he played 66-of-82 snaps in what is typically one of the more prolific passing offenses in the league. If that snap count repeats itself this week, there’s a ton of upside in a solid matchup against the Bucs. Tampa has allowed the 7^th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far. Given his increased role, Washington is a decent low-cost option in DFS tournaments.

 

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Moore is shaping up to be a good buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues and deeper redraft leagues. He’s only played 17 snaps in each of the first two weeks, but head coach Ron Rivera has been saying that they need to use him more moving forward. He managed to post a 51-yard TD catch last week. I wouldn’t take a chance on him this week, but I would consider putting an offer into the Moore owner in your league to see if you can get him at a discount.

 

TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): The Ravens’ tight end split has been a bit frustrating so far. They’ve pretty much split the targets evenly between Nick Boyle, Maxx Williams and Andrews, but this matchup is a good one for the position. Denver has been notorious for being stingy to wide receivers and vulnerable to tight ends. The Broncos allowed the 4^th-most TE points in 2017, and have coughed up the 6^th-most so far this year including a big game from Will Dissly. Andrews already found the end zone once last week and has 3 catches in each game so far. He’s a TD dart throw for DFS tournaments.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week, hopefully it helps you with some tougher lineup decisions this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the rest of the week to make sure you aren’t starting any players who end up sitting. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

You will not have any easier pick all year than when you pick the Minnesota Vikings as 16.5 point favorites this week home against the winless Buffalo Bills. I'll keep this part short and sweat. The Bills are very, very bad, and their best player, LeSean McCoy, has injured ribs. I will be surprised if they manage to score a touchdown against a tough Vikings defense.

 

Just in case you have already taken the Vikings, my next suggestion would be the New England Patriots, 6.5 point favorites on the road against the Detroit Lions. The Patriots rarely lose consecutive games and Bill Belichick relishes at the opportunity to crush former assistants. I am staying away from this one only because the Vikings have shown me more at this point of the season and are facing a rookie QB in Josh Allen rather than former pro bowler Matthew Stafford. I am planning on holding on to the Patriots until at least midway through the season when they really get rolling.

 

Cheers!

Drink Five!

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

 

 

2 Records to Start the Season

 

Last week, we checked in on Patrick Mahomes and Michael Thomas's blistering starts. This week, they both continued their record making/breaking pace. Mahomes now has 13 TD to start the season, the most by anyone ever. He's averaging over 30 points per game, leading all non-magical quarterbacks. He'll get Denver in week 4, his toughest match so far, but certainly one where he can keep up his pace. Meanwhile, Thomas added another 10 receptions to his season total, bringing it to 38. All of this on just 40 targets - he's almost having a perfect season. He's still on pace for over 200 receptions, a ridiculous number, but I'm just a sucker for ridiculous early season extrapolation.

 

565 Field Goals Made

 

Kickers rarely make this column, but I'm generally OK with making an exception for future hall-of-famers. Adam Vinatieri went 3 for 3 in Philly on Sunday to tie Morten Anderson's all time record of 565 field goals made. Congrats to Adam, for completing this in just your 23rd season. Yea, Adam was kicking field goals way back during Clinton's first term in office. Anderson played even longer - he was drafted before I was born, and kicked his last FG after my 26th birthday. Vinatieri will probably pass Anderson's record for most points, as he's only 33 behind him now. Will a kicker make this column twice in one year?

 

Over 40 Fantasy Points

 

Drew Brees and Matt Ryan have now faced off something like 20 times, and Sunday might have been the highest scoring affair of all of them. Both QBs managed to top 40 fantasy points in a game, combined for 770 passing yards and 10 total TDs. The Saints have been coming from behind in every game this year, and it's resulted in some huge fantasy production. Not only the afore mentioned Brees and Michael Thomas, but Alvin Kamara is living up to his draft stock and has the 2nd most points among RBs. For the Falcons, this is Matt Ryan's best game since 2016, and the first time that he's thrown 5 passing TDs in one game. Three of those went to Falcons rookie Calvin Ridley, who put up a 7 for 146 line and will be the waiver wire darling of the week. He was only 22% owned in Yahoo leagues going into Sunday's games, so look for him in your league this week.

 

5th Most Points in Week 3

 

One of the best performances of the week belongs to a guy owned in just 3% of Yahoo leagues. He's responsible for the biggest upset of the season so far, and the destroyer of survivor pools. That's right, it's Josh Allen, Buffalo's rookie QB. Allen was an efficient 15 of 22 for 196 yards, one TD and no picks, while running in two on his own. I'm not saying you go out and pick him up, but it was enough to beat the Minnesota Vikings, who were favored by 16.5 points. This is now two straight weeks of just 3 points for the Vikings DST, which has to now go face the Rams on a short week. This is probably the time to move on and stream another team. It still remains to be seen if the Vikings are really this bad, or if they just got caught looking ahead to the next game.

 

3 of the top 10 TEs

 

Using the drinkfive fantasy league as a measuring stick (standard scoring, 10 teams), only 3 of the top 10 TEs this week are even on teams. This week's top 10 TE list is dominated by guys owned in 2% or fewer of Yahoo leagues. Dallas Goedert led the way with a measly 13.3 points, and was only one of three guys to hit double digits. Both OJ Howard and Jesse James have a shot at that tonight, bringing a little stability to a position that has some of the worst production it's seen in years. At this point, I feel that playing a TE is just a dart throw and a hope that he will find the end zone. Streaming a TE this season seems more relevant than ever, and I would definitely go that route if you are not getting the production you want out of the TE slot.

 

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 was a wild one around the NFL with some stunning upsets, most of which involved the NFC North. More importantly, we finally started to see a bigger chunk of the rookie class making their presence felt. Calvin Ridley, Kerryon Johnson, Josh Allen, Christian Kirk, Dallas Goedert and Baker Mayfield all had breakout games, and Saquon Barkley and Royce Freeman stayed productive as well. We’ve also arrived at the Josh Rosen era in the desert. The rookie crop will continue to make a larger impact as the season rolls on, whether through improvement or attrition. It’s going to get harder each week to decide which rookies to take a chance on, so it’s a good thing I’m here to help sort it out. Let’s take a look at what to expect in week 4.

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. NO): Saquon continues to demonstrate week in and week out that he’s a must start every week. The Giants’ offense may not be great, but he’s part of a very select group when it comes to usage, and that isn’t going to change barring injury. He’s an RB1 until further notice, and the Saints’ D is nothing to be afraid of this week.

 

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): The Chiefs have been really impressive through 3 games overall, but the defense has been less than stellar. While Freeman has been a bit touchdown-dependent, there should be plenty of chances for the Broncos to get into scoring territory. Don’t be stunned if Freeman finds the end zone more than once. Game script might have the Broncos throwing more than they’d like, but that kind of scoring upside makes Royce a solid RB2 option in 12-team leagues.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Kerryon became the first Lions’ running back since Reggie Bush to top 100 yards in a game last week, and while he’ll be hard-pressed to duplicate the feat this week, his performance should at least earn him more opportunities. The Cowboys, defense isn’t exactly stingy, but the offense slows the game down a ton and limits the number of plays for the opposing offense. The Lions are still a pass-happy offense at heart, so the slow down likely means limited work for Johnson. Still, the rookie should be a solid bet for 60-70 yards from scrimmage and a potential TD.

 

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 4: vs. Mia.): Michel dominated the running back carries for New England on Sunday night as Rex Burkhead surprisingly didn’t have a single carry. The results were mixed, with Sony flashing solid skill on several runs and going nowhere on several others. At the end of the day, the usage was promising, and the production should get better as the Pats’ offense finds its footing. He’s worth taking a chance on again this week in a matchup with Miami, who has allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game (all rankings and point totals based on PPR scoring).

 

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Ridley put on a show last Sunday, but don’t get too enamored with the TD barrage he unleashed on the Saints. The pendulum will eventually swing back to Julio as defenses start to pay more attention to Ridley. The Bengals have been a much better pass defense thus far than the Saints, and I’d be surprised if they let Ridley get going the way he did last week again. This might be a week to target Julio in DFS lineups. As for Ridley, it’ll be hard to sit a player with the upside he’s shown over the past couple weeks. If you believe in the talent, keep starting him. I’d at least pause and look at my other options if I had solid other choices. At the very least, Ridley has demonstrated that it is possible for a prominent 1^st round rookie WR to start his career fast.

 

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Kirk was heavily featured for the first time in week 3 posting a 7-90 line on 8 targets, and there is a decent chance it happens again this week as Larry Fitzgerald fights through a hamstring issue. There is some risk here with a new starting quarterback, but I believe the switch to Josh Rosen makes the Cardinals’ offense better, not worse, and Kirk was targeted 3 times in Rosen’s 2 possessions at QB. Kirk is a flex option in deeper PPR leagues.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 4: @GB): Allen is coming off his best day as a pro, a dazzling performance against the vaunted Vikings’ defense where he scored twice on the ground and once through the air in an emphatic victory. The win, however, included a bit of good fortune and good defense early on that staked the Bills to an early lead. Minnesota extended Buffalo’s first scoring drive with a late hit penalty on a 3^rd-down sack. Then Kirk Cousins handed the Bills the ball deep in Vikes territory with two bad fumbles where he just didn’t feel the pressure coming. I don’t expect the same kind of perfect start at Lambeau. There is a chance that Allen does some stat-padding if the Bills fall behind in this one, but I wouldn’t trust him as more than a low-end QB2. The Packers will be playing angry coming off a disappointing loss last week, and they won’t sleep on the Bills like Minnesota did.

 

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Rosen has officially been announced as the starter moving forward, and it hopefully will jumpstart the Cards’ offense. I’m hesitant to put much faith in him this week against a Seahawks’ defense that has been playing surprisingly well despite a lot of roster turnover. The ‘Hawks rank 4^th in the league in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. I’ll be watching Rosen closely this week, but he should only be started if you’re desperate in a 2-QB league.

 

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 4: @Jax.): Darnold has posted back-to-back shaky performances after a strong NFL debut, and now he gets to face one of the most feared secondaries in the league. The Jaguars have allowed the 4^th-fewest QB points per game and will make it a long Sunday for Darnold.

 

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): Lindsay was a disappointment last week after being ejected for throwing a punch on Sunday. It may have opened the door for Devontae Booker to push his way back into a role in the offense, and Lindsay might see some reduced playing time as a result of his transgression. There’s still a chance that the rookie goes right back to putting up 100 scrimmage yards this week, but I’d be cautious about trotting him out there in lineups this week.

 

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 4: @Ari.): Penny seemed to be working his way into a big role, but that all changed in week 3 as Chris Carson tallied over 30 carries. Penny is clearly relegated to the second string again, and until we know that’s changed you just can’t trust him in lineups.

 

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): Chubb’s time seemed to be on the horizon as Carlos Hyde struggled with his efficiency in the first 2 weeks, but Hyde took a big step forward in week 3. The veteran back posted his best game as a Brown and likely bought himself at least a couple more weeks as Cleveland’s clear lead back. Chubb will continue to spell Hyde for the time being, but he isn’t getting enough work to be useful in fantasy right now.

 

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 4: @Ten.): Adams looks like the next man up in the Eagles’ backfield group with Jay Ajayi sidelined, but he’s not worth trusting in fantasy yet. He carried just 6 times in week 3 and wasn’t targeted. There’s a chance that Ajayi returns this week, which would render Adams totally useless. If Ajayi sits, 6-8 touches feels like the most you can hope for.

 

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Smith will continue to see some work to keep Tevin Coleman fresh as long as Devonta Freeman is out, but not enough of it. Smith handled just 5 touches last week to 17 for Coleman. That kind of work gives him just enough opportunity to flash his skills without being useful in fantasy.

 

WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): Washington has seen much more playing time over the last couple games than he did week 1, but it hasn’t resulted in big production. The Ravens aren’t likely to be the team he breaks out against. Baltimore ranks 6^th in the league in pass defense DVOA, and have allowed just 10 catches to WRs per game, and the vast majority of those will go to JuJu and Antonio Brown.

 

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Gallup’s targets have climbed from 1 to 2 to 4 in the first 3 games of the year, but he’s caught just 1 pass each week. He also was on the wrong side of a highlight-reel interception by Earl Thomas after Gallup couldn’t hang on to the ball. His usage is trending up, but his production is not. Keep waiting on Gallup.

 

TE Will Dissly, SEA (Wk. 4: @Ari.): The Seahawks finally got a chance to play from ahead in week 3, and Will Dissly’s production disappeared as a result. Seattle is a 3-point favorite on the road this weekend, and it’s hard to count on him to return to productive ways if they do in fact play from in front. The TE position has been a bit desolate this year, but there are probably better options you can find this week.

 

TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 4: @NE): Gesicki posted his best game as a pro last Sunday, but it’s going to take a bit more than 3 catches for 31 yards for me to buy into the Penn State alum. He was targeted just 3 times against Oakland and had just 1 catch prior to last Sunday.

 

TE Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 4: @Ind.): The Colts are an inviting tight end matchup, allowing the 4th-most points per game to the position and at least 57 yards each week, but Akins has totaled just 5-50-0 in 3 weeks.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): If you play in a 2-QB league and have Cam Newton or Alex Smith as one of your weekly starters, Baker could make for a nice bye week fill-in. He didn’t post a TD in his debut, but he looked fantastic in leading the Browns to just their second win since 2015. The Raiders rank just 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and I don’t think they have quite enough film on Baker to be able to shut him down this week. I’m excited to see what he does for an encore.

 

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Hou.): Marlon Mack’s status is still up in the air for this week, and Hines has shown himself to be the only other Colts’ back worth considering. Jordan Wilkins hasn’t really made much happen with his limited opportunity, but Hines has shown himself to be a useful receiver out of the backfield. It would help him if Andrew Luck gets back the ability to push the ball down the field to create more space for screens and other short passes, but Hines has the athleticism to make a big play happen at any time. That explosiveness makes him an intriguing punt option in DFS tournaments.

 

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): Callaway was a letdown last week, but he was a letdown that was targeted 10 times. If that volume continues, it’s only a matter of time until he has that breakout game. Baker Mayfield’s accuracy and quick decision-making should open up the Cleveland offense a bit, and make Callaway even more of a threat. If he’s still available in your league, you should rectify that. He has solid upside in week 4 against a poor Oakland secondary.

 

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): This week is a good one to take a chance on Sutton in DFS tournaments or if you’re desperate for a flex option in deeper leagues. The Chiefs are heavy favorites and lack much of a pass defense. If Denver is chasing points, Sutton is going to see a solid number of targets against the defense. KC is allowing the 7^th-most WR points per game so far.

 

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. TB): Much like Sutton above, Miller is going to face a team with a lackluster defense and explosive offense. The Bears aren’t a team that’s likely to be involved in a shootout, but if you expect Fitzmagic to continue this week, Miller will have a chance to put up a solid day as the Bears try to keep pace. He’s worth a dice roll as a cheap DFS tournament play. He left last Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury, but posted that he was fine on twitter afterward.

 

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 4: @Ten.): Goedert may have been the most surprising rookie performance of last weekend. He managed to out-target and out-produce Zach Ertz in the return of QB Carson Wentz. Wentz’s affinity for his tight ends is well known, so I’d look for Goedert to remain a big part of the offense at least until Alshon Jeffery returns. The Titans have allowed the fewest TE points per game, but they have yet to face a decent tight end. Goedert is an interesting DFS tournament option this week.

 

TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 4: @Pit.): The Steelers have been absolutely shredded by tight ends each of the last 2 weeks, and Andrews is averaging just over 8 points per game (PPR). He’s still splitting work with Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams (at least until Hayden Hurst returns), but he is a decent DFS dart throw again this week.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week, hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you aren’t starting any injured players come game day. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) and let me know. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.