Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

It's the end of another exciting week of football which means it's time to put your claims in for available free agents in your fantasy league to strengthen your team. I'll be going over who I think are the top five picks for you to target this week so don't miss out on them. Good luck!

Note: %owned is based on Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.

5) Nick Foles (PHI) - 26% owned - Philidelphia's passing attack didn't appear to take too much of a hit with Carson Wentz as Nick Foles threw for 237 yards and 4 TDs against the Giants last week. Foles has streamer appeal in week 16 against a mediocre Oakland pass defense.

4) Eric Ebron (DET) - 43% owned -  Ebron has been getting more opportunities the past couple weeks catching 15 of 18 targets for 127 yards a touchdown over that span. There probably isn't a better option available on the wire if you are in need of a tight end streamer.

3) Washington Redskins (WAS) - 35% owned - The Redskins draw the Broncos this week who have no surpassed Cleveland as the team giving up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Look for Osweiler to spew a few turnovers in this game.

2) Kerwynn Williams (ARZ) - 35% owned - Williams should continue to see enough touches to put him in the RB2/Flex conversation. He draws a favorable matchup against the Giants this week as they are giving up the 4th most points to opposing running backs.

1) Mike Wallace (BAL) - 40% owned - Another week, another solid performance from Wallace after catching 6 of 10 targets for 89 yards. He now has 27 catches on 45 targets for 400 yards and 2 TDs over his last 6 games and draws a favorable matchup against the Colts this week.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report and Happy Turkey Day! Things get a little wild this week with 3 Thursday games, so make sure to get your lineups set ahead of time. The Thanksgiving holiday also brings us the end of the bye weeks. It’ll be full 16 game slates from here on out, so some of those fringe guys you have been willing to try in recent weeks should be shelved for safer options. Oddly enough, in a lot of cases the safer options right now are rookies, especially at the running back position. 4 of the top-12 running backs and 6 of the top-25 in PPR scoring are rookies. Compare that with 2016: only 2 of the top-25 backs were rookies (Zeke and Jordan Howard) and you had to go all the way to RB43 to find the 6th-best rookie contributor. Just imagine how good this rookie crop would be if Dalvin Cook had stayed healthy. There hasn’t been as much success at the other positions, but that may change with Corey Davis’s schedule opening up, a possible TE changing of the guard in Tampa, and a certain turnover-prone QB getting some of his weapons back in Cleveland. Let’s jump in and see what to expect for week 12…

Rookies to Start:

RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 12: vs. Buf.): With each passing week, it’s getting harder and harder to rely on Hunt as an RB1. He has zero TDs since week 3, and 3 straight games with fewer than 100 scrimmage yards after hitting that mark in each of his first 7 games. The Bills are an ideal get-right spot for him. Buffalo has coughed up 212.7 rushing yards per game and 11 rushing TDs in the 3 games since they dealt Marcell Dareus, and Hunt has accounted for nearly three-quarters of the Chiefs rushing yards on the year (73.7%). This is a chance for Hunt to find his ceiling again. A 20-point PPR day could be in the offing.

RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 12: @LAR): You already know that Kamara is pretty much an auto-start at this point. The Rams are improving against opposing running backs and have held 3 of their last 4 opponents below 17 PPR points (the best RB defense in the league, Houston, allows 17.2 points per game), but the Rams played from ahead in most of those games and still have allowed the 4^th-most running back points on the year. You can’t bet against Kamara’s hot streak here. He’s been an RB1 for 5 straight weeks, and THE RB1 in 2 of the past 3. He’s well worth the cost in DFS formats and a locked in RB1 again.

RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ari.): Fournette got back on track with 111 rushing yards last Sunday against the Browns. He’s still battling an ankle injury, but he played 67% of the offensive snaps and produced a solid fantasy day. The Cardinals have been decent at stopping the ground game, ranking 9^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but Fournette’s volume has kept him pretty much matchup-proof, and Arizona is coming off their worst game against RBs all year. I’d prefer Kamara or Hunt as a top flight option in DFS, but LF should be locked in to season-long lineups as usual.

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 12: @NYJ): The Jets defense has been pretty formidable against running backs this year, holding opposing backs to the 10^th-fewest PPR points per game and ranking 13^th in run defense DVOA, but I’m not betting against McCaffrey. He’s posted back-to-back top-6 weeks since the Kelvin Benjamin trade. He’s more of an RB2 this week than RB1 given the matchup, but with KB gone he’s finally finding his ceiling, and it isn’t something you want to leave on the bench.

RB Samaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): I’d be a little nervous if I’m relying on Perine as an RB1 this week but Chris Thompson suffered a season-ending injury, Perine is coming off a breakout game, and the Giants have allowed the 3^rd-most rushing yards in the league. Washington also enters the game as a touchdown favorite, so game script should work in Perine’s favor as well. I don’t know if he’ll repeat the performance he had last week, but Samaje should be a solid RB2 based on volume and matchup. He’s a better option in non-PPR formats since he provides almost no receiving production.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 12: vs. GB): Make sure the hamstring isn’t a problem before pulling the trigger here. JuJu has averaged 8.3 targets per game in the past 3 contests, and Green Bay has allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game. There is probably some worry after Antonio Brown exploded Thursday night and JJSS scored in single-digits, but the Packers have let 2 WRs finish in the top-24 in the same game 4 times (nearly 5, but Josh Bellamy of the Bears was the WR26 against them). Make sure to keep an eye on the hamstring updates. JuJu isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, and the Steelers play Sunday night. Make sure you have a fallback option if he can’t play (Martavis, Bruce Ellington and Mike Wallace are all options that may be available on your waiver wire), but if he’s able to go he should be a borderline WR2.

WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 12: @Ind.): I am here for the Corey Davis breakout game this week. The snaps and targets have been there for Davis since he returned from his hamstring injury, and now he gets a matchup that will allow him to really get going. The Colts rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8^th-most WR points per game. It would be a ballsy move to thrust Davis into lineups this week given how he’s produced so far, but I love Davis as a WR3 this week. He could drastically outplay his $4,900 price tag in DraftKings this week.

TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 12: @Was.): Don’t be scared off by his clunker last week. The wind was howling, and he was facing a tough matchup. Remember that Engram put up a goose egg in week 5 and then followed it with 4 straight top-5 performances before last Sunday’s dud. EE draws Washington this week, a defense much more giving to opposing TEs than the Chiefs. Washington has allowed the most yards per game to opposing TEs and the 4th-most fantasy points per game to them. The Chiefs have allowed the 3^rd-fewest TE points. Engram is a strong bet to get back on track on Thursday night.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): Mixon has continued to show a lack of a ceiling all year in this Bengals’ offense. He hasn’t reached 14 PPR points in any game this year, and he has the fewest yards per carry of any back with at least 55 carries on the year (2.9). He’ll need receiving usage to find his floor this week, as the Browns actually rank 1^st in run defense DVOA. Gio Bernard is still stealing some of the passing down work. The Bengals are a heavy favorite, so game script could boost his volume, but he’s looking like no more than a flex play in this one.

RB Jamaal Williams, GB (Wk. 12: @Pit.): Williams had a usable day in his first start, finishing as the RB20 in a blowout loss to Baltimore on Sunday. He should see enough volume to push for fantasy viability again this week since the biggest threat to his carries, Devante Mays, fumbled twice in two attempts Sunday. If Ty Montgomery manages to return this week, Williams is off the table, but TyMo isn’t practicing as of Wednesday. The Steelers’ run defense has been stingy and ranks 4^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game so far. Game script should also work against Williams with the Steelers a 14-point favorite. If he continues to see some receiving work, there should still be enough volume for Jamaal to be in play as a flex option in deeper leagues, but there isn’t a ton of upside.

RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): If Forte is out again, and it appears he will be, Elijah is worth some consideration as a flex option. Carolina is a tough matchup, allowing the 3^rd fewest rushing yards and 2^nd-fewest rushing TDs in the league, so McGuire will need some receiving usage to show his value. The Jets will likely be playing from behind and McGuire saw 7 targets last week to Bilal Powell’s 2 with the Jets in comeback mode against Tampa. Elijah also played more snaps than Powell in that game. If that usage continues, McGuire could surprise this week in deeper PPR leagues.

WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. NO): At this point you pretty much know what you’re getting with Kupp. He’s probably overdue for a TD but his volume has been steady with 7+ targets in 3 of the last 4 games. Robert Woods’s absence should also give his target number a boost. The Saints have been decent defensively, but Kupp’s volume makes him a safe floor WR3… I mean, what are they going to do, start featuring Sammy Watkins? Sammy Watkins owners know the answer to that question.

WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 12: @KC): This is a good spot for Zay this week with Tyrod re-inserted at QB. Jones has finally started to play at a solid level in the past few weeks, and with KB expected out in this one Tyrod should lean on Zay in the passing game. Charles Clay hasn’t looked right since returning from injury a couple weeks ago and Jordan Matthews will likely play limited snaps in his first game back. The Chiefs allow the 2^nd-most points per game to opposing WRs, and Zay has been averaging 7 targets a game in his last 4 played. He should be a PPR WR4 this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 12: @Phi.): The Eagles’ defense has been playing inspired football of late. They haven’t exactly been facing elite offenses (49ers, Broncos, Cowboys without Tyron Smith & Zeke), but the Bears and Mitch Trubisky don’t qualify as one either. Chicago ranks 26^th in offensive yards per game and 27^th in points per game. The Eagles have allowed 17.8 fantasy points to the opposing QBs in total in their past 3 contests. Mitch will be hard pressed to be a QB2 this week.

RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Cohen’s usage bounced back in a big way against Detroit on Sunday, but Philly allows the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game and Benny Cunningham is still mixing in during the 2-minute drill . You could try and plug Cohen in as your flex if you’re feeling lucky, but I’d like to see his usage repeat before I start considering him for the lineup again.

RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): You could throw CC in as a DFS tournament dart throw if you want to, but at some point the garbage time bonanza is going to dry up. Clement’s usage hasn’t been reliable enough to put him in season-long lineups with fantasy playoff spots at stake. He’s topped 50 rushing yards in 3 straight games and scored 4 TDs in the past 2, but he’s done so on just 28 carries and 1 reception in those 3 games, most with the games long decided. There is a legitimate chance that the script repeats itself for Clement with Philly a 2-touchdown favorite, but at some point the Eagles are going to have a letdown game. It’s hard to bank on a 4^th consecutive blowout. Even if it is a blowout, you’d still need a TD from Clement for him to return real value.

RB Matt Breida, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Breida posted a productive game against the Giants heading into the bye, but that was with the 49ers playing from out in front all day. I’d expect mostly Hyde this week with the Seahawks being a much tougher opponent. Seattle ranks 11^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 4^th-fewest RB points per game. This isn’t a matchup to target with a rotational back like Breida.

RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 12: @Was.): Gallman has just 10 touches in the last 2 games, and with Darkwa playing well there’s no reason to expect that number to go up on Thanksgiving.

WR Keelan Cole, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ari.): With the return of Dede Westbrook, Cole’s role will diminish quite a bit over the next couple weeks. I’d expect Westbrook and Marqise Lee to be on the field in most 2-wide sets, and Cole in the slot when they go to 3 WRs. Few teams employ fewer 3-WR formations than Jacksonville. The matchup isn’t terrible with the Cardinals allowing the 9^th-most WR points per game, but I don’t expect Cole to find enough volume for a useful day.

WR Alex Erickson, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): Don’t take his TD in week 11 to mean anything, and don’t read into the matchup this week with the lowly Browns. Erickson isn’t usable in fantasy at the moment, nor are his rookie teammates John Ross and Josh Malone.

WR Trent Taylor, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): This matchup looks a lot better than it did a couple weeks ago, but even if Taylor is able to play he managed to post just 2 catches for 6 yards in the first meeting with Seattle, and his role in the offense already kept him away from Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman’s coverage. He’s scored 10+ PPR points just once on the year. If Taylor is out again, fellow rookie Kendrick Bourne will continue to see increased playing time, but he’s also not worth consideration as he battles Louis Murphy for WR3 snaps.

TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 12: @Atl.): OJ made good on my ‘sleeper’ call last week with a 3-52-1 line while playing 70% of the snaps, but I’m not ready to double-down on him this week. It does appear that he’s slightly edged out Cam Brate for the lead TE spot, but they still share enough work that it hurts the fantasy upside for both guys. Howard out-targeted Brate 4-3 in week 11. While those few targets are enough to be productive in a great matchup like the one they faced last week, Atlanta isn’t a great matchup. The Falcons are right in the middle of the pack vs. TEs, allowing the 16^th-most TE points per game.

TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): I’d like Kittle as a sleeper if I were sure he’s healthy, but I’m not. TE gets pretty ugly after the top handful of options and the Seahawks have given up 11.9 or more PPR points to the position in 7 of their past 8 games. 10 PPR points is basically a borderline TE1 this year. With Kittle banged up though, I’d look elsewhere for TE streamers.

TE Adam Shaheen, CHI (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Shaheen has finally become part of the Bears’ game plan with injuries to Zach Miller and Dion Sims, but the Eagles have allowed 10+ points to the opposing TEs just 3 times all year, and only once in the last 6 games. This isn’t a good spot for Shaheen.

TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): With Corey Coleman back, Njoku was limited to just one target last weekend. It’s now been 5 games since Njoku’s last TD and 3 games since he reached 20 receiving yards. ‘Because he’s due’ isn’t a good reason to use him in lineups.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB CJ Beathard, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): The 49ers have announced that Beathard will get another start this week, and there actually is some upside in what is typically a demoralizing matchup. Seattle still has some defensive firepower to be reckoned with, but losing Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor is a huge blow to their secondary. Seattle is a 7-point favorite this week, so the 49ers should have to throw plenty, and CJ’s found some success of late with 17.4 and 25 fantasy points in his last 2 starts respectively. If you are playing a streamer in a 2-QB league, I like Beathard better than a lot of the other options at the bottom of the QB barrel.

QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Cincinnati has been one of the better QB defenses in the league this year, allowing the 11^th fewest QB points per game, but they have shown some cracks of late. They’ve allowed at least 14.6 points to the opposing QB in each of the 5 games since their bye week, and all 5 QBs faced finished between the QB10 and QB17 for the week. That range might not be exciting, but it’s usable in 2-QB formats. It’ll be easy to point to Kizer’s 4 turnovers and 5.4 fantasy points last week, and his poor performance in the first meeting with Cincy and write him off as an option, but he actually posted the 5^th-highest point total any QB has against Jacksonville. He also scored 38 points combined in the two games before that against pretty formidable QB defenses (DET & MIN). The Bengals are one of 5 teams that have allowed 200 QB rushing yards on the year, so Kizer should create some extra points with his legs. He showed an immediate connection with Corey Coleman last week, and gets Josh Gordon back in week 13. I think DeShone will surprise some people down the stretch. We’ve seen flashes of his skills at times, and he’s getting weapons to work with. Now he just has to cut down on the turnovers and play more consistent football. He’s a high-risk, high-reward streamer for 2-QB leagues this week.

RB Austin Ekeler, LAC (Wk. 12: @Dal.): The Cowboys’ run defense has suffered whenever Sean Lee is out, and he will miss this game. Dallas has allowed 120+ rushing yards in all 3 games that Lee has missed, and another 120 in the final 3 quarters against Atlanta after Lee left with injury. They’ve given up 64 rushing yards per game with him in the lineup (not including that Atlanta game). The question with Ekeler will be his volume. He was effective on limited touches last week, but he didn’t play at all until the game was well in hand. Melvin Gordon should have a great game this week, but if Ekeler sees another 8-10 touches spelling him, he could post another flex-worthy game as well.

RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Mack is likely becoming a forgotten man amongst the crowded rookie RB crop. He failed to score even 5 PPR points in week 9 or 10, and then was on bye in week 11. People likely are forgetting that the Colts played mostly from ahead in those two games. In positive game scripts, they are going to rely more heavily on Frank Gore. Despite playing with leads in those games, Mack still played over 40% of the snaps in each and handled 8.5 touches per game. I expect his usage to go up if Indy plays from behind, and the Titans allow the 5^th-most RB catches and 4^th-most RB receiving yards in the league. Mack is an upside play for DFS tournaments and the deepest of PPR leagues.

WR Dede Westbrook, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ari.): As I mentioned above with Keelan Cole, the Cardinals allow the 9^th-most WR points per game and I expect Westbrook’s playing time to increase a bit this week. With Keelan Cole playing as the slot WR, that keeps Marqise Lee on the outside and will allow Patrick Peterson to cover him. That could open things up for Westbrook, who put up 3-35 on 6 targets last week. There’s upside for Westbrook to have a breakout game, and might reward you as a DFS punt option.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Minnesota’s top corner Xavier Rhodes is likely to spend most of the day covering Marvin Jones, and while Trae Waynes has improved of late, he’s still the guy to go after if you’re going to attack the Vikings on the outside. Golden Tate will be the Lions’ best WR play this week, but there’s room for Golladay to have a game as well. Kenny’s snap count tripled from 11 to 33 in his second game back, and there’s something about Lions’ Thanksgiving games that brings out the best in their QB. Matt Stafford has thrown for 330+ yards in 4 of the last five Turkey Day tilts he’s played in. While the one game he didn’t hit that mark was last year against these Vikings, I still like his chances at a better than expected day. If Golladay’s targets climb from the three he saw last week, he’s got some real upside as a boom-or-bust WR4.

WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 12: @Dal.): It’s likely that Williams’ 8 targets last week were more a result of the game being out of hand than part of the original plan, but it’s still an encouraging sign. His usage has been too inconsistent to use him in season-long leagues this week, but he could be a tournament winner for the Thanksgiving DFS slate. He costs just $100 more than the minimum in DraftKings, and faces a Cowboys’ defense that allows the 6^th-most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs.

WR Chad Williams, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Don’t play Williams this week against the ferocious Jaguars’ defense, but keep an eye on his usage and production. John Brown is likely to miss this game with a toe injury, and head coach Bruce Arians said Williams has impressed in practice and “is going to get his shot.” The Jaguars allow the fewest WR points per game by a wide margin, so if Williams has an even remotely productive game he’s likely worth a flier in deep leagues and dynasty formats.

TE Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Like his teammate Chad Williams, Seals-Jones is just a stash at this point, and for Ricky it’s specifically for dynasty leagues. He’s played just 9 offensive snaps all year (only one before week 11), and managed to see 6 targets and put up 3-54-2 with them. He finished as the TE2 in week 11. That kind of production isn’t sustainable on that snap count…still, starting TE Jermaine Gresham has just 2 TDs all year. Ricky is a converted WR who can be a matchup nightmare at 6’5”, 243, but I’d need to see his playing time increase to consider rostering him in season-long leagues. At the very least, his performance last weekend has made him a rookie to keep an eye on.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of the critical lineup decisions you have to make this week. If you see two players listed at the same position under the same header above, they are listed in the order that I like them for this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week, and make sure you don’t miss any players playing on Thanksgiving. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

8 Turnovers in 3 Games

Since Ezekiel Elliott took some mid-season R&R about 3 weeks ago, the Cowboys have struggled mightily. Dak Prescott, hailed last year for his ball security, has turned the ball over 8 times in the last 3 games, all of them without Zeke. He has 5 INT and 3 fumbles lost in those games and has thrown zero touchdowns. In fact, the Cowboys have only scored 2 TDs in those three games. With Zeke in, Dak threw 16 TDs with only 4 INTs over 8 games. The rest of Zeke's suspension will see the Cowboys taking on the Redskins, Giants and Raiders. I'm not sure that the Cowboys are going to win any of them. This strangely begs the argument - Is Zeke the most valuable player to his team? It sure would be a hilarious thing for Goodell to have to see the Zeke be given such a big award that was highlighted by the suspension that ruled (and ruined) the news cycle for the first half of the season.

-0.6 Yards per Carry for Bears RBs

Several bad rushing days have found their way into my column this season, but oh boy, the Bears took it to another level yesterday. The three Bears running backs, Jordan Howard, Benny Cunningham and Tarik Cohen combined for 10 carries and -6 yards. It took QB Mitchell Trubisky's monumental 4 carries for 12 yards to make sure that they didn't finish in the negative as a team. But yes, of course, the Bears are bad. I'd rather talk about the team that beat them, the best team in the league right now, the Philadelphia Eagles. Carson Wentz threw another 3 touchdowns, making it his 5th game where he threw 3 or more TDs. He's also got the league lead with 28 for the season. The Eagles have won 9 in a row, and now have two huge tests over the next two weeks, both on the west coast. First to Seattle next Sunday night, and a visit to the Rams the following week.

1.24 Points Per Touch

Step aside Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara just took your spot for the favorite to win rookie of the year. He's now third in STANDARD fantasy scoring and he only has 77 carries on the season. His production is off the charts, fantasy wise. At 1.24 points per touch(ppt), he's even crushing Chris Thompson (ended the year at 1.09 ppt), whom we gushed about earlier this season. The next closest player still going is Duke Johnson at 0.94 ppt, but seeing as Duke has only the 17th most fantasy points, there's really no comparison. Look instead to how much he's dominating the guys above him. Todd Gurley is averaging about 0.80 ppt, and high volume guy Le'Veon Bell is getting just 0.52 ppt. This means that somehow, Alvin Kamara is more than twice as efficient with the ball than the guy commonly accepted as the best back of the last couple years. All this talk about Mark Ingram being a first team all-pro might be a bit premature. He's got a teammate doing at least as well as he is!

46:21 TD:INT Ratio

This week, quarterback play was a lot cleaner than last week. With a ratio of 46 touchdowns to only 21 interceptions, this week's games felt a lot less sloppy than last week's 39:31 ratio. An obvious side effect of this better play is improved numbers for wide receivers. This week, 6 guys found themselves north of 20 points, with Julio Jones leading the way with an absurd 38.8 in standard leagues. His 253 receiving yards was the highest total for a player in one game since his 300 yard game last season. Meanwhile, Antonio Brown is the major beneficiary of an improved Ben Roethlisberger and has put up an absurd line of 20 receptions for 313 yards and 5 touchdowns in the last two games. Not to be outdone, the surging Chargers have scored 82 points in the last two games, behind Philip Rivers awesome Thanksgiving performance and Keenan Allen's 331 receiving yards over that same stretch. All of this means that the end of the fantasy football season is sure to be freaking amazing.

7-0 Since Week 5

Congrats to Case Keenum, easily the best performing player in the league whose job is constantly in jeopardy. Since taking over for good in Week 5 - remember Sam Bradford? - Keenum has won 7 straight games and the team has averaged 27.4 points per game. This has the Vikings sitting pretty at 9-2, while every week, Coach Zimmer has to announce Keenum as his starter, and not Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater may be the future of the team, but he has almost nothing to do with their success this season. I think that changing the signal caller at this point in the season would be disastrous, but hey, with Zeke finally suspended, what else do talking heads have to discuss?

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most of you, this is the final week of the fantasy regular season. Your whole season could be riding on the outcome of this week’s matchup. Make sure you know what your scenario looks like. Do you need to win and make up a point differential? Do you need to just win? If you’re out of the playoffs, are there any side pots you can win this week? If you are in a dire spot, look for ceiling instead of floor. I’ll do my best to point out who has more of which in the breakdowns below. If you see two players at the same position listed under the same header, the player I like more this week will be listed first. Let’s dive in to what to expect from the rookies in week 13…

Rookies to Start:

RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 13: vs. Car.): To put it as simply as I can, you can’t sit a guy who has been the RB1 in 3 of the last 4 games (and the RB4 in the other). The matchup this week isn’t an easy one, but Kamara has been on a crazy run. Carolina allows the 4^th-fewest RB points per game, and rank 5^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Given the matchup, I’d probably fade Alvin in DFS lineups, or view him as more of a contrarian play, but you have to trust him in season-long leagues. In the past 4 weeks, Kamara has scored an astonishing 43 more PPR points than any other running back, and he’s done it with fewer than 15 touches per game.

RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Fournette was a disappointment in week 12, as he handled a season-low 12 carries and posted fewer than 8 PPR points, but unless the ankle is an issue I’d expect both the carries and the points to go up this week. The Jaguars played from behind last week, but they’re 9.5-point favorites in this one and the Colts allow the 6^th-most RB points per game. There is a little worry since Fournette has posted 2 down games in 3 chances since returning from the ankle issue, but he’s practicing in full as of Wednesday and looks like he should be back to normal this week. I’d understand if you were hesitant to pull the trigger in DFS with his recent results and the price tag, but he should be at least a borderline RB1 in season-long leagues.

RB Jamaal Williams, GB (Wk. 13: vs. TB): As long as Williams has the backfield to himself, he’s a strong RB2 option and a huge value in DFS lineups. He was the RB2 last Sunday against a stout Steeler defense, and even managed to finish in the top-20 backs the week before when Green Bay was shut out by Baltimore. Williams has consistently been able to produce when given the opportunity, and he should have plenty of opportunity in this one as long as Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery remain sidelined. Tampa Bay allows the 14^th most RB points per game, and ranks 20^th in run defense DVOA.

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 13: @NO): McCaffrey didn’t have a great game against the Jets last week. He was held to a season-low 2 catches, but still managed to finish as the RB22 in a tough matchup. He basically has a top-25 floor at this point. The Saints allow the 9^th-most RB receptions and 7^th-most RB receiving yards, and McCaffrey finished as the RB10 with 20.7 PPR points in his first go-round with New Orleans in week 3. That was before he started to consistently produce on the ground. CMC totaled just 117 rushing yards in the first 8 games of the year (70 in games 2-8), but has managed to tally 151 yards on the ground in Carolina’s past 3 contests. That balance has made McCaffrey an even safer RB2 option.

RB Samaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Perine has now posted back-to-back 100-yard rushing games for Washington, and he had 4 targets last week that led to a 3-30 receiving line as well. The receiving production is new here. Perine is known as a non-factor in the passing game, so the new usage boosts both his ceiling and his floor. This week he gets to face a Dallas defensive front that is still without Sean Lee, allows the 12^th-most RB points per game, and ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA. The receiving work might not carry over as Byron Marshall gets more up to speed as the receiving back, but Perine remains a strong RB2 option this week. Think Alex Collins on a team that actually scores offensive touchdowns. (Washington has scored 10 more offensive TDs than Baltimore).

WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 13: @Ari.): Kupp saw a whopping 11 targets last week, and he should approach that number again this week with Patrick Peterson likely to shadow Sammy Watkins for much of the day. The Cardinals allow the 9^th-most points per game to WRs despite stellar coverage from Peterson. Kupp posted 4-51-1 in the first meeting with Arizona when Robert Woods was healthy and in the lineup. Woods is going to miss this one. Cooper should be worth his price in DFS cash games and is a solid WR3 this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Before you freak out about Trubisky being listed here, let me explain that this is for 2-QB leagues (or crazy leagues with 16+ teams). Trubisky had been showing signs of improvement before taking a big step back against the Eagles last week. I’m willing to chalk it up as a down week in a brutal matchup. The matchups don’t get better than the one he has this week. The 49ers have allowed the most QB points in the league and have coughed up multiple passing TDs in 6 straight games. Mitchy T was the QB14 and QB18 in the games before being eviscerated by Philly. He has some solid upside this week and is a decent play in DFS lineups as well.

RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 13: @NYJ): Hunt has been struggling for a little while now, but last week was especially bad. For the first time all year he was held under 60 scrimmage yards, and it was way under (26). He gets a brutal matchup this week with the Jets allowing fewer than 16 RB points per game over their past 5 games. To explain how good that is, the Vikings are the best RB defense in the league with 17.3 points per game allowed. There is still some upside. The Jets do rank just 17^th in run defense DVOA for the year, and Hunt still has the backfield touches mostly to himself, but the QB and coaching staff aren’t helping. Defenses have been stacking the box, and Alex Smith isn’t beating them downfield to keep them honest. I’d still lean toward starting him if I have him, but would understand if you didn’t. I don’t know if I’d have the stones to sit him for Perine or Jamaal Williams, but the matchups and recent production suggest you should. Hunt would make a great contrarian play in DFS tournaments if you had any faith a bounce-back was coming. No one will be on him this week in DFS.

RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. Pit.): I’m not quite ready to buy into last week’s breakout game from Mixon as the new normal for him, but it was very promising to see. Mixon punished the Browns consistently all game, piling up 114 yards on the ground without the benefit of any 20+ yard carries. He gets a much stiffer test this week. The Steelers may have been carved up by Jamaal Williams on Sunday night, but it was the first time they’ve allowed the opposing backs to total 20 PPR points or more since week 5. Pittsburgh ranks 6^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 9^th-fewest RB points per game on the year. Mixon himself failed to reach 10 points in Cincy’s first meeting with the Steelers. The volume should still be there for Mixon this week, which keeps him in the RB2/flex discussion, but I doubt the ceiling that he showed last week will repeat itself on Monday night. Joe’s back to being a floor option in this one.

WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 13: vs. NE): The Patriots have managed to cut down on how many points they’ve been giving up to opposing teams after an atrocious first 4 games (32 ppg allowed first 4 weeks, 13 ppg since), but they’ve continued to bleed fantasy points to WRs. Miami was the first opponent they’ve faced all year that didn’t reach 32 PPR points from their WR group. Zay is the clear WR1 for the Bills with Kelvin Benjamin sidelined, as evidenced by the 24 targets he’s seen in the past 3 weeks. The bouts of inefficiency he dealt with early in the year crept back in last Sunday against KC as he caught just 3 of 10 targets, but he also found the end zone in that game. He’s posted his 3 best fantasy games of the year in his last 3 played, and his target share should be strong again in a great matchup. He’s an excellent cheap DFS option and a solid flex option in deeper PPR leagues.

WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 13: vs. Hou.): Davis’s play and stat lines have been disappointing so far, but I’m still holding out hope for him this week. 4 of the 6 games that Davis has suited up for have been against teams that rank in the top-5 in the league at limiting WR points. In the other 2 games, he’s averaged 7 targets, 5 catches and 54 yards. The Texans allow the 6^th-most WR points per game and rank outside of the top-20 in pass defense DVOA on throws to any WR. Literally…Football Outsiders tracks DVOA on throws to WR1s, WR2s, and other WRs, and the Texans rank outside of the top-20 in all 3 categories. With Rishard Matthews possibly out again, this is a second chance for Davis to post his breakout game. I would treat last week’s production as his floor against Houston, and hope that he moves closer to his ceiling this week.

WR Dede Westbrook, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): The Colts allow the 8^th-most WR points per game, and Dede has seen 16 targets in his first 2 games of the year, including 10 in week 12. Some of that target share was likely due to Marqise Lee getting the Patrick Peterson treatment, and Dede was still out-snapped by Keelan Cole in that game, but I expect the target share to remain solid moving forward. The Colts have been bad against the pass all year, and their secondary will be without its lone bright spot Rashaan Melvin in this one. Westbrook is a big-time value at his $4,100 DraftKings price tag, and he’s an intriguing borderline flex option for season-long leagues.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 13: @Cin.): JuJu looks like a game-time decision this week, and if he does suit up he’ll get a tough matchup and may see limited snaps. The Bengals have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game in the league and rank #11 in pass defense DVOA on throws to #2 WRs. For reference, Smith-Schuster put up 2-39-1 in the first meeting between these teams, but that was before he’d overtaken Martavis on the depth chart. The upside that JuJu showed before his injury keeps him in the flex conversation if he’s able to play, but I’d be hard-pressed to plug him into lineups this week. Big Ben’s normal home/road splits seemed to be a thing of the past early on this year, but when you crunch the numbers they still show up. Ben is averaging 13.75 fantasy points per game on the road, and 19.26 points per game at home, and that’s even with the 2.6 he tallied at home against the Jaguars factored in. Ben’s poor play on the road should temper expectations across the entire Steelers’ passing attack despite how hot they’ve been of late.

TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 13: @Oak.): Coming off 2 consecutive poor outings, Engram now gets a quarterback change to contend with. The targets have still been there for Evan (13 in the last 2 weeks), and the matchup is a good one (Oakland allows the 7^th-most TE points), but I wouldn’t fault you if you went with a more stable option like Kyle Rudolph or Jack Doyle instead. Engram is likely still your best option, but there are definitely some reasons for concern with the Eli Manning era over, and his price tag in DFS is certainly too rich for me.

TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 13: @LAC): The matchup is daunting on paper for Njoku (Chargers allow 2^nd-fewest TE points), and he hasn’t exactly been a key fantasy contributor so far, but the return of Josh Gordon to pair with Corey Coleman could really open things up in the middle for Njoku. He saw his biggest playing time share of the season last week, out-snapping Seth DeValve 41-24, and posted a season-high 4 catches for 47 yards. If the increased playing time continues this week, he’s on the radar as a tight end streamer for deeper leagues.

Rookies to Sit:

QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 13: @LAC): Kizer has quietly been stringing some pretty solid fantasy performances together over the past couple weeks, but this matchup isn’t one to target. The Chargers allow the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game, and have kept 4 of the past 6 QBs they’ve faced out of the top-25 weekly finishers, including a QB31 performance from Dak Prescott on Thanksgiving. The return of Josh Gordon should make the Browns’ offense more dynamic, and week 14 against the Pack should be a prime spot to stream Kizer in 2-QB leagues, but I’d still avoid him this week.

RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 13: @Oak.): Gallman saw a surprisingly high amount of work on Thanksgiving, but the Giants’ offense is going to be unpredictable with Geno Smith under center, and the 6.3 PPR points Gallman scored on Thanksgiving were the most he’s tallied since week 5. It’s hard to rely on any more than that with this offense in flux, especially if your season is on the line.

RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 13: @Sea.): The Eagles did win in a rout for the 4^th consecutive game last Sunday, but Clement’s garbage time bonanza came to an end. Week 12 marked the first time during the streak that Clement failed to rush for 50 yards, and he played on just 18% of the offensive snaps. This week’s game should be a much closer contest. I’d expect the Eagles to rely more on LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi to carry the load than they have in recent weeks, making Clement’s volume too shaky to trust as anything more than a DFS tournament dart throw.

RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 13: @Jax.): Mack handled the fewest touches he’s seen since week 6 on Sunday as the Colts came out of their bye. He posted 10.6 PPR points in the Colts’ previous meeting with Jacksonville, but nothing in his recent performance suggests a repeat is coming. Gore has re-established himself as the clear lead back in Indy over the past few weeks, and Mack is best left seated for now.

RB Matt Breida, SF (Wk. 13: @Chi.): Breida played just 7 snaps and handled 2 touches against Seattle last week. Carlos Hyde has taken a stranglehold on the lead back job in San Francisco. The only way Breida sees extended work this week is if the 49ers manage to build a comfortable lead or Hyde gets hurt. Neither scenario is something to bank on.

WR Taywan Taylor, TEN (Wk. 13: @Chi.): There is some upside here as a DFS punt option if Rishard Matthews misses another game since the Texans are so bad against WRs, but with Matthews sidelined in week 12 Taylor ran just 7 pass routes. The Titans don’t employ enough 3-WR sets to give Taywan the upside you’d need to be able to consider him in season-long leagues.

WR Chad Williams, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. LAR): Williams didn’t show enough or see enough targets in his debut to warrant consideration in an only slightly easier matchup this week. The Rams allow the 8^th-fewest WR points per game. The floor is too low to take the risk here in any format.

TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 13: @GB): With the news that Jameis Winston will be back for this game, I’d be hesitant to trust OJ Howard if I need a win this week. Green Bay allows the fewest TE points per game and has only allowed 1 TD to the position all year, and Jameis tends to favor Cameron Brate much more than Ryan Fitzpatrick does. With Fitz at QB, Howard has been featured more prominently in the offense than Brate. OJ has 4 games all year with more than 50 receiving yards, and 2 of them have come in the 3 games that Fitzpatrick started. If you need to make up points this week, there are few streaming TEs with more upside than Howard, but there is a considerable downside this week as well.

TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 13: @Chi.): The Bears are just a middling defense when it comes to stopping TEs, and the QB change could spark Kittle, but he has just 7 catches for 79 yards total in the past 4 games with his college QB throwing him the ball. I’m not optimistic he suddenly starts producing now that he gets a QB he’s less familiar with.

TE Adam Shaheen, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. SF): With Dion Sims back in the lineup last Sunday, Shaheen played just 17 offensive snaps and was targeted just once in a game where the Bears threw 33 passes. There isn’t enough usage to consider him with Sims healthy.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Patrick Mahomes, KC (Wk. 13: @NYJ): Mahomes hasn’t played at all so far this year and isn’t slated to start this week, but he’s still worth a stash in 2-QB leagues. If the Chiefs fall flat again this week and drop to 6-6 with their 5^th consecutive loss, they’ll have to do something drastic to try and turn it around. Alex Smith has turned back into the dinking and dunking QB he’s been for years as the offense has fallen apart. Mahomes could be the spark they need. He showed throughout his college career that he isn’t afraid to push the ball downfield, and he has the weapons for a breakout if he gets the chance in Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs face Oakland and Miami in the fantasy playoffs. They both rank in the bottom-10 in the league at limiting QB points. Mahomes is a much better stash than Giants’ rookie Davis Webb even though it’s already been confirmed by the Giants that Webb will play at some point. The ceiling is much higher for Mahomes.

RB Austin Ekeler, LAC (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): Ekeler has been a big factor in fantasy when games get out of hand for the Chargers, and LA is a 2-touchdown favorite this week. The Browns have allowed 28 or more PPR points to opposing RBs in 3 of their past 4 games, and Ekeler has scored 10+ in 4 of 5 and has 58 or more scrimmage yards in each of the past 3. He makes for a decent PPR flex option in deeper leagues, and is a solid bet for another double-digit performance.

RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Cohen’s weekly usage remains an enigma, but he’s worth a dart throw in DFS tournaments this week. The 49ers allow the most RB points per game and nearly half of the points they allow to the position have been receiving points. They’ve allowed the most RB receiving yards by a 77-yard margin over 2^nd (New England), and have allowed the 2^nd-most RB receiving TDs. Despite the ups and downs Cohen has had this year, he’s still the PPR RB24 for the season and gets the best matchup possible this week.

RB Chris Carson, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Like Mahomes, Carson isn’t expected to play this week, but is an intriguing stash for the fantasy playoffs. No one has taken the reigns in the Seattle backfield since Carson went on IR, and he’s expected to start practicing again this week. Carson still leads the Seattle RBs in rushing yards for the year despite playing in just 4 games. The Seahawks face the Rams and Cowboys in weeks 15 & 16 (they currently allow the 2^nd-most and 12^th-most RB points per game respectively). Don’t waste the roster spot if you aren’t in solid playoff position yet, but if you are, you could be getting a fresh starting RB for fantasy’s most critical weeks.

WR Josh Reynolds, LAR (Wk. 13: @Ari.): With Patrick Peterson matched up on Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods out again, this could be a great spot for Reynolds to have a breakthrough game. He was solid last week with 4-37-1 on 6 targets on a surprising 61 snaps (the same number of snaps Cooper Kupp played). Watkins was targeted 9 times in that game, and Kupp was targeted 11 times. I don’t see much room for Kupp’s number to increase, and I expect the number of Sammy targets to come down thanks to P-squared. No QB throws fewer passes into tight windows than Jared Goff. Per NFL.com, he’s thrown just 12.2% of his passes this year to WRs with less than a yard of separation, the lowest rate of any qualified QB. Patrick Peterson will create tight windows for Sammy. I’ve liked Reynolds since he was drafted, and this is a great spot for him to shine. He’s could be a week-winning DFS tournament play.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Although Marvin Jones is the one garnering the attention lately, Golladay has quietly put together 3 straight games with 50+ yards while seeing his snap count increase from 11 to 35 to 40 as he’s worked his way back from injury. He’s almost pushed TJ Jones completely out of the lineup. The Ravens are a tough matchup, but at $3,900, he’s a reasonable dart throw for DFS tournaments, and could even make for a reasonable flex option in deeper non-PPR leagues.

WR Travis Taylor, SF (Wk. 13: @Chi.): Taylor played two-thirds of the team’s offensive snaps in his first game back from injury, and Jimmy Garoppolo showed a penchant for leaning on his possession receivers in his starts for New England last season. In his 2 career starts, 20 of his 42 completions went to either Danny Amendola or Julian Edelman, and 2 of his 4 TDs went to Amendola. The Bears rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the WR3 or lower and Taylor costs the minimum in DraftKings. There’s a non-zero chance that Jimmy G leans on easy completions to Taylor to move the sticks, and that gives Taylor some upside in DFS tournaments.

TE Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. LAR): There still isn’t enough track record to tell you to start him in season-long leagues, but Gabbert clearly likes him. He’s only played 25 snaps in the last 2 weeks, and he’s managed to post 7-126-3 on 11 targets. The Rams allow just the 6^th-fewest TE points per game, but with the target share he’s seeing from Gabbert, he’s worth consideration in DFS tournaments despite the matchup.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make the lineup decisions that secure your much needed playoff berth or 1^st round bye. Make sure to stay on top of the injury updates throughout the week, and always check in before kickoff to make sure there are no surprise inactives. If you have any specific questions, or if you just want to yell at me about any of the information included above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.