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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully the first 11 weeks of the season have put you in a good position as we head into the closing stretch of the fantasy regular season, because byes are going to make two of the next three weeks pretty hairy. It starts this week, with 6 teams on byes in week 12 that include 2 of the top-5 QBs, 4 of the top-13 RBs, 4 of the top-14 WRs, and 3 of the top-12 TEs in points per game. If your teams aren’t impacted in week 12, consider yourself extremely lucky, though I’m guessing that means you’ll be impacted in week 14.

With so many byes this week, you may have to dig a little deeper to fill starting spots than usual, so you’re going to see some rookies below with more favorable recommendations than they’d normally get with a full slate of games, and quite a few more rookie deep league sleepers than usual. I’m going to harp on it a lot, but when there are this many byes, the standards of what guys you should be considering get lowered.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 11…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): After a few down weeks for Jayden Daniels, it’s now Bo Nix who is the safest weekly fantasy start among the rookie QBs. Nix has rattled off 5 top-12 finishes in his last 7 games, including weekly finishes as the QB2, QB3, QB8 and QB9 in that span. He finished as a mid-range QB2 in both games where he failed to crack the top-12, so the floor has been solid as well. This week he faces a Vegas defense that has allowed the 8^th-most QB points per game and ranks 26^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA stat. The Raiders have given up multiple passing scores and 23+ fantasy points to 4 of the last 6 QBs they’ve faced, including to Bo Nix in week 5. With Joe Burrow and Josh Allen on byes this week, Nix is a top-10 QB play for me.

RB Tyrone Tracy, Jr., NYG (Wk. 12: vs. TB): There’s no reason to overthink this one. Tracy has a clear lead back role and is about to face a Tampa defense that allows the 6^th-most RB points per game. The switch to Tommy DeVito shouldn’t be a problem for Tracy. It could mean they lean harder on the run game, but DeVito also has shown to be more willing to throw to running backs than Daniel Jones when he’s had chances to play. Jones targeted RBs on 18.3% of his passes in 2023, and on 14.5% in 2024. For DeVito, that rate in 2023 was 23.2%. More targets against the Bucs would be a huge boost to Tracy, as Tampa allows the 3^rd-most RB receptions per game and the most RB receiving yards per game. You also don’t need to worry about Tracy ceding that receiving work to Devin Singletary. Tracy has logged route participation rates of 55% or higher in 3 of the 4 games he’s started when Singletary has been active. It’s Tracy’s backfield. With 6 teams on byes, the rookie is a solid RB2 this week.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. TB): The QB changes for the Giants this week, but I don’t think it’s any worse than a lateral move for Nabers. Daniel Jones was providing arguably the worst QB play in the NFL, and Head Coach Brian Daboll has already been gushing about Tommy DeVito’s ability to make anticipation throws, telling Nabers to “get your head around, because he will throw it before you break.” Nabers has been a WR3 or better in every single game he’s played this year, but in recent weeks he’s sort of hovered around the WR2/3 borderline. I’d expect his floor to remain in that range, but the hope is that DeVito brings back some of that top-10 upside that Nabers showed earlier this year. You know he’s going to continue to see 30% of the targets, and the Bucs allow the 6^th-most WR points per game. Nabers should continue to be started with confidence.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Bowers is coming off his best performance of the season, and is easily pacing to post the best rookie tight end season since Mike Ditka’s 12-TD rookie campaign back in the 60s. The matchup here isn’t a great one – Denver allows the 12^th-fewest TE points per game – but Bowers racked up 13-126-1 last weekend against a Miami team that entered the week allowing the 8^th-fewest. Bowers has earned 10+ targets in 4 of his past 6 games, and he’s an easy call as a top-3 option at tight end this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): Daniels has been slipping in recent weeks. He still ranks as the QB6 by total points, but he’s finished as the QB24 or worse in 3 of the last 5 games. On paper, Dallas looks like a great matchup to right the ship – the Cowboys allow the 5^th-most QB points per game and rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA – but Dallas’ defense has been badly hampered by injuries and is getting healthier. Micah Parsons returned last week after a 6-week absence, and Marshawn Kneeland and DaRon Bland could both be active this week. Kneeland, like Parsons, was hurt in week 4, and Bland would be making his season debut. The Cowboys have allowed 25+ points to an opposing QB 4 times this year. 3 of them were with Parsons & Kneeland sidelined. They’ve held 3 of the 5 QBs they’ve faced with Parsons active below 13 points. With that said, the Dallas defense remains really bad against the run, and they’ve especially struggled with mobile QBs. The 5 QBs that have scored 20+ fantasy points against Dallas this year have averaged 10.1 fantasy points against them from just rushing production, and that includes 0.5 points from Jared Goff. Daniels should have success running the ball, and I think he finds his way back into the ranks of the QB1s this week.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 12: @ NYG): Irving has finished as a top-18 PPR back in 4 of his last 5 games, and now gets to face a Giants’ defense that has allowed 773 rushing yards in their last 4 contests. Irving has posted those performances in a stretch where Tampa has played mostly from behind, which tends to favor Rachaad White. During the current Tampa 4-game losing streak, White has run 31 more receiving routes than Irving, but carried the ball 9 fewer times. This week, Tampa is favored by 5.5-points and should be playing from ahead for a change. That should slant this backfield in Irving’s favor for the week, and against a terrible Giants’ run defense, he should have no trouble putting together an RB2 finish. It’s worth mentioning though that the Bucs have talked about wanting to get Sean Tucker involved again, but I think we likely won’t see Tucker for more than a couple plays unless we get into garbage time late.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): In all honesty, I could probably move McConkey up to the section above, and you probably wouldn’t bat an eye. Touchdowns and ceiling weeks haven’t been easy to come by for the rookie – he has just one top-12 fantasy finish all year – but he’s been a top-30 finisher in 5 of his last 7 games, and this week sets up really nicely for him against a Ravens’ team that is significantly better defending the run than the pass. Baltimore allows the most WR fantasy points per game, and they play man-to-man coverage at the 12^th-highest rate in the NFL. No WR has been better against man coverage than McConkey this year. Per PFF, he’s averaging 0.82 PPR points per route run against man coverage, the best rate in the league this year (minimum 50 routes run), and he ranks 5^th in yards per route run against man coverage with 4.02. With all the byes this week, it’s hard to see him as anything less than a solid WR2 play.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 12: @Sea.): Rostering Harrison has been much more of a roller coaster ride than it should be for a player who has a 42% air yardage share for the season and has been above a 20% target share in 8 of his last 9 games (he left the other game early with a concussion). In the 8 games where he’s seen over a 20% target share, he’s finished as a top-25 PPR WR 5 times, and he’s finished outside the top-45 3 times. There hasn’t been much of a middle ground. With all of the byes this week, I find it hard to believe he’ll finish outside the top-45 WRs in week 12, especially against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the 12^th-most WR points per game, and they’re in the top half of the league in man coverage rate. Harrison has done his best work against man coverage – per PFF, he ranks in the top-10 receivers in the league in fantasy points per route run vs. man coverage (minimum 25 routes), and he earns a target on a third of his routes against man-to-man defenses. I’d treat him as a fringe WR2 option this week.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Odunze gets the benefit of the doubt this week because of the bye-pocalypse. The Bears’ passing game looked competent for the first time in weeks last Sunday now that Thomas Brown is calling the plays, and since week 8 Rome has a 26% target share and 40% air yardage share, both team highs. They’ve finally started to run the passing game through him a bit more, and the Vikings allow the 3^rd-most WR points per game. I wouldn’t view Odunze as anything more than a WR3 option given how inconsistent the Bears’ passing game and Odunze’s production have been, but if you’ve got the fortitude to start him, there’s a solid chance it’ll pay dividends.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 12: @ Car.): In all honesty, Worthy probably isn’t a great option this week, but if you’re impacted by byes, there aren’t a lot of players who offer a higher ceiling than Worthy. The likeliest way this game plays out is that the Chiefs lean on a returning Isiah Pacheco and the run game and easily beat a Carolina team that they’re favored to beat by double-digits, but part of me believes Mahomes and the Chiefs are itching for an opportunity to finally have an offensive explosion, and Carolina may offer the perfect matchup to do it. The Panthers rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA and dead last in run defense DVOA, and Kansas City hasn’t scored more than 30 points in a game this year. We know Mahomes and the Chiefs have a 40-point game in them, and if that happens, the chances are pretty good that Xavier Worthy scores one of the TDs. Worthy’s targets have been down since DeAndre Hopkins joined the team, but he turned 5 targets and 1 rushing attempt into a top-20 finish against a strong Buffalo defense last weekend. A similar workload against a bad Panthers’ defense could be on tap this week. I see Worthy as a boom-or-bust WR3/4 play this week. If you believe the Chiefs’ offense explodes, he’s probably worth rolling the dice on.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 12: @ Mia.): Obviously, you probably don’t want to start Maye in single QB formats against the Dolphins, who allow the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game, but don’t let that defense scare you off of him if you’re considering him for a QB2 spot. Miami was dominant against QBs early in the year, but they’ve been much more vulnerable in recent weeks and now rank 16^th in pass defense DVOA. In their last 4 contests, Miami has allowed nearly 280 passing yards per game and gave up multiple TD passes 3 times, including to Gardner Minshew last weekend. There are going to be rookie mistakes with Maye – he’s thrown 6 INTs in 5 full games played – but we know he’s going to be aggressive and make plays as well, and he provides a boost with his legs that can offset some of the mistakes (Maye averages 41 rushing yards per game in his 6 starts). I’d view Maye as a mid-range QB2 this week in a matchup that isn’t quite as tough as it seems on paper.

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): The switch to Thomas Brown at OC proved to be a fruitful one for Caleb for at least one week. The Bears’ offense looked much sharper than they had in weeks under Shane Waldron, and Caleb was more decisive and willing to take off and run when he didn’t get the looks he wanted in the passing game. Caleb finished with his 2^nd-highest completion percentage of the season, 231 passing yards, and 70 rushing yards, but was just the QB21 for the week due to lack of touchdowns. I’m hopeful the positive strides continue this week, but the Vikings’ defense is a different animal than Green Bay’s. Minnesota ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA, allows the 10^th-fewest QB points per game, and allows the fewest QB rushing yards per game. In fact, no QB they’ve faced has run for 20+ yards against them. Caleb is going to have to win throwing the ball against the best pass defense in the league. With only 26 teams in action, Caleb is of course in consideration for superflex spots if you’re in a pinch, but I wouldn’t consider him as a fill-in QB1 this week.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): Sean Payton loves to mess with us on a weekly basis, doesn’t he? The Broncos’ head coach had teased bigger workloads for Estime multiple times earlier this season without following through, so it was a surprise when Estime handled 14 of the team’s 17 RB carries in week 10 despite Payton talking him up that week. When Payton continued to talk him up into week 11, it was only natural to believe that his large workload would continue, but Payton pulled the rug out from under us last Sunday. Estime was one of the most added players in fantasy leagues last week, and is one of the most dropped players this week after finishing with just 25 yards on 9 touches against Atlanta. 9 touches may sound like a decent workload, but 7 of those touches came in 2^nd half garbage time after Denver had opened up a 28-6 lead. Javonte Williams served as the clear lead back, and Estime handled mop up duty. This week’s matchup is another one that the Broncos could win comfortably – they’re 5.5-point road favorites in Vegas – and the Raiders allow the 7^th-most RB points per game, but you’re taking a huge risk if you’re relying on Estime in lineups this week. I know there are a lot of byes this week and you may be desperate for RB help, but with Payton in charge, Estime could see 20 touches or he could see 3. If I had to pick a Denver back to start this week, I’m picking Javonte.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 12: @ Sea.): Benson has tallied at least 10 PPR points in each of his last two games, but Arizona has had a strange habit of playing in lopsided games this year, and most of Trey’s playing time has come in garbage time. He’s logged 4 games this year with at least 9 touches, and all 4 of those games were decided by 20+ points. Just 14 of his 54 touches for the season have come in situations where the margin on the scoreboard was less than 14 points. I bring this up because the Cardinals are 1-point underdogs in Seattle. If this game is as close as Vegas thinks it’ll be, Benson likely will be limited to just a few touches. Seattle isn’t a daunting matchup for running backs, allowing the 11^th-most RB points per game, but starting Benson is a bet on this game being more lopsided than it should be on paper.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): Legette has been serving as the Panthers’ de facto WR1 since the Diontae Johnson trade, and while that’s a good thing for him in general, it’s not great when you’re facing the Chiefs because it means a head-to-head matchup with Trent McDuffie. McDuffie has allowed just 5.6 yards per target on throws into his coverage this season, and he’s a big part of the reason why Kansas City allows the 3^rd-fewest fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers. Legette only has one top-24 fantasy finish this season, and in this tough matchup it’s likely he will finish below his normal production. I’d view him as a WR4 option this week at best.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 12: @ GB): It’s always difficult to trust a player in your lineup the week after he puts up a goose egg. In his first 3 games played, Pearsall finished as the PPR WR46, WR35, and then WR12 before being blanked last Sunday on 2 targets. I don’t expect Pearsall to get shut out again, but he’s comfortably behind all of Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel, CMC, and George Kittle in the team target pecking order, and that’s going to make him hit-or-miss on a weekly basis. This week he faces the Packers, who allow the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. Green Bay will be without Jaire Alexander in this contest, so Pearsall gets a small bump, but I’m not sure it’s enough to make me comfortable starting him when he could be limited to just a few touches.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): Franklin found the end zone last weekend and has seen his route participation rate increase in each of the last 3 weeks, but he’s still limited to a part-time role, he’s not earning targets at a high rate, and Sean Payton could pull the rug out from under us at any moment and cut his involvement in half. Franklin hasn’t earned higher than a 10% target share since week 7, and even with the TD last weekend, he finished as the PPR WR40 for the week. This week’s opponent, the Raiders, do play man-to-man coverage at a significantly higher rate than the Falcons do, and Franklin does his best work against man coverage, but the Raiders are still only playing man-to-man at a league average rate. I wouldn’t want to trust Franklin this week, even in deeper leagues.

TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. Ari.): Noah Fant is questionable again this week, so the door is open for another Barner start in Seattle, but I would look for other options this week, even if you’re desperate for a fill in. The Cardinals allow the 8^th-fewest TE points per game and have only allowed 2 tight ends all year to catch for 40+ yards (George Kittle and Will Dissly), and only Kittle to reach the end zone. Barner’s average target has been just 3.3 yards downfield in his two games as starter, so you’re banking on a TD or a bunch of targets to get a respectable performance if you start him.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Wright has seemingly moved ahead of Raheem Mostert in this backfield, but there’s a chance that’s due to a groin injury Mostert has been dealing with. Wright has out-snapped Mostert in each of the last two games, but so far it hasn’t resulted in a large workload, as he’s logged just 6 touches in each of those contests. The last time he handled more than 6 touches in a game was back in week 5 when he tallied 13 carries for 86 yards against these same Patriots he’s facing this week. In that game, De’Von Achane suffered an early concussion and Wright split the backfield work with Mostert. I wouldn’t expect a repeat here. Tyler Huntley was at QB in that game, and the Dolphins called a run-heavy gameplan. I’d be surprised if Wright gets to double-digit touches this time around, and I wouldn’t view him as anything more than a desperation option. 

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 12: @ Car.): Steele has now been held under 20% of the offensive snaps in 7 straight games, and Kansas City is expected to welcome back Isiah Pacheco this week. It’s possible Steele doesn’t lose additional snaps with Pacheco’s return since he offers a different skill set than the other KC backs, but he’s not playable now, and he won’t be playable with Pacheco back.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. Phi.): Corum was allowed to play for one glorious 2^nd quarter drive last weekend where he rushed for 21 yards on 4 carries and pulled in a 7-yard reception as well, but he spent pretty much the entire rest of the game on the sideline. He had just 1 rush attempt for zero yards outside of that drive. He continues to be nothing more than a change of pace back for Kyren Williams, and the Rams don’t like to change pace a whole lot. Philly allows the 5^th-fewest RB points per game, so I wouldn’t count on a surprising spike game on limited touches here.

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 12: @ GB): Guerendo has played just 5 offensive snaps and touched the ball just once in the two games with Christian McCaffrey back on the field. He’s off the fantasy radar until there’s another injury in this backfield.

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): Vidal has now been a healthy scratch in two straight games with Gus Edwards back. He’s not on the fantasy radar in non-dynasty formats.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 12: @ Mia.): The Patriots got Kendrick Bourne back into the mix in week 11 and Polk operated as the team’s WR5. He was in a route on nearly a third of the team dropbacks but wasn’t targeted. He’s now earned just 2 targets in the last 3 games. You can’t have any confidence in plugging him into lineups.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): Mitchell was under a 20% route participation rate for the 2^nd time in the last 3 weeks last weekend (also for just the 2^nd time in the last 8 games), and he turned that limited playing time into 1-33 on two targets. He was tripped up a yard short of a touchdown on that one catch. He hasn’t caught more than 2 passes in any game Anthony Richardson has started this season, and is a distant WR4 on the depth chart at the moment. Detroit allows the 7^th-most WR points per game, but Mitchell isn’t going to be the receiver to take advantage of that matchup.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Washington was in a route on 37% of Miami’s dropbacks in week 11, his 2^nd highest route participation rate of the season, and equal with Odell Beckham Jr.’s rate for the week as well, but he finished with just 18 yards on 4 touches. He’s still too deep down the pecking order in this offense to be considered for fantasy lineups.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): McCaffrey was in a route on just 31% of the team passing dropbacks last week against the Eagles. It was his lowest route participation rate of the season. He hasn’t played more than 50% of the snaps in any game since week 5, and he’s totaled just 2 catches in his last 5 games.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. Phi.): Whittington has run just one route in the last two weeks since returning from injury. He’s being used almost exclusively on special teams at this point.

TE Cade Stover, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Stover remains at least modestly involved in the offense – he logged right around a 30% route participation rate in week 11, even with Nico Collins back – but he’s still yet to reach 3 targets or 4 PPR points in any game this season. He remains a Dalton Schultz injury away from relevance.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): Sinnott remains the TE3 in Washington. He ran just a handful of targetless routes in week 11 while John Bates was targeted 3 times against Philly. Sinnott was the second TE off the board in the draft in April, but he continues to be a non-factor as a rookie.

Rookies on Byes in week 12: RB Ray Davis, BUF, RB Braelon Allen, WR Keon Coleman, BUF, WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX, WR Mason Tipton, NO, WR Jermaine Burton, CIN, WR Malachi Corley, NYJ

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

RB Dylan Laube, LV (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Laube has spent his rookie season mostly languishing as a healthy scratch on game days. He’s been active just 3 times this season, and played only one offensive snap in those 3 games – a snap where he fumbled the ball away. He may finally get his second touch of the season this week with Zamir White and Alexander Mattison both battling injuries. Both players missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Ameer Abdullah has been the 3^rd RB for much of the season, and will undoubtedly see an expanded role if both players are out, but there really aren’t any Vegas running backs left who are built to run between the tackles. Between Abdullah, Laube, and the team’s two practice squad RBs (newly signed Chris Collier and rookie Sincere McCormick), Vegas has 4 backs who all weigh 210 pounds or less. Because of that, I don’t expect either practice squad player to leapfrog Laube into a big role. I think we’re going to see Abdullah play something like two-thirds of the snaps, and Laube fill in the rest of the time. The Broncos rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA, but they do allow the 4^th-most RB receptions and 5^th-most RB receiving yards per game, so that’s the place the Raiders backs should be able to do damage, and both Abdullah and Laube are capable in that area. I’m not sure I’d want to count on more than 5-6 PPR points out of Laube this week, but if White and Mattison both miss this game, he’s likely to be at least modestly involved. He’s still just a desperation option in deep PPR leagues this week.

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): I mention Brooks here more as a stash for future weeks than as a guy to plug in for week 12. Brooks is expected to finally be activated this week and see his first NFL action, but he enters a backfield that has largely been dominated by Chuba Hubbard, so he’ll be fighting for RB2 work alongside Miles Sanders. There is a sliver of hope for Brooks this week as the Panthers figure to play from behind as 10.5-point underdogs, and Brooks’ clearest path to playing time is in the passing game. For the season, Chuba Hubbard has played 72% of the offensive snaps, but he’s played just 34% of the long down & distance snaps and has ceded much of that work to Sanders. If Brooks can take over that Sanders role, he could have some receiving upside in a game where the Panthers should be forced to throw a lot. It’s worth nothing though, that the Chiefs have allowed the 12^th-fewest RB receptions and 6^th-fewest RB receiving yards this year. Brooks is only worth a look out of desperation, but better weeks could be ahead with Tampa in week 13 and Dallas in week 15.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 12: @ LV): Vele has finished as a WR3 or better in back-to-back games and seems to have established himself as Denver’s clear WR2. The potential return of Josh Reynolds this week could throw a wrench into things, but Vele again feels like a reasonable WR3/4 option in PPR leagues against a Vegas team that ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA and has been more vulnerable in the slot than on the perimeter. Slot corner Nate Hobbs has allowed the most fantasy points per route run into his coverage among the Raiders’ starting corners, and that’s who Vele should face most often. There’s always risk in trusting a Sean Payton skill player that isn’t named Courtland Sutton, but Vele has shown a nice floor in recent performances.

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): Coker’s outlook this week is really going to depend on how Adam Thielen is used upon his return. Thielen is expected to be active this week, and in his tenure with the Panthers he’s been used primarily as a slot receiver…the same role that Jalen Coker has been playing for the last couple months. Per Mike Clay from ESPN, the Chiefs allow the 2^nd-most fantasy points to receivers lined up in the slot, but the 3^rd-fewest to receivers on the perimeter, so it’s kind of a big deal which guy will play in the slot. If Thielen is held out for another week, then we know Coker has sneaky WR3 upside in this matchup as the primary slot guy. If Thielen returns, pay close attention to the reporting on how these players will be used. I find it hard to believe that David Moore will remain a starter in 3-wide sets with Thielen back, which means one of Thielen or Coker will be lined up on the outside. The one who stays in the slot has a chance at a strong fantasy performance.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 12: @ NYG): McMillian has been kind of a forgotten man in Tampa since he’s been sidelined and hasn’t played since week 8, and now his return to the lineup will be overshadowed by Mike Evans returning the same week. With that said, I expect McMillan to play a full-time role this week and push Ryan Miller and Rakim Jarrett back to the bench. Mike Evans will undoubtedly be the WR1 this week, but the Bucs are a pass-first team, and the Giants rank 24^th in pass defense DVOA. McMillan still hasn’t caught for more than 35 yards in a game this season, so the ceiling probably isn’t huge here, but in a week with so many byes, McMillan has some appeal if you’re desperate for a fill-in WR. I’d expect Evans to get some extra defensive attention, which could open up opportunities for splash plays for McMillan, who has a 14-yard aDOT for the season.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. KC): You might not realize it, but Ja’Tavion has finished as a top-15 PPR tight end in 4 of his last 5 games and has become an integral part of the Panthers’ passing attack, and this week he faces a Kansas City defense that has allowed the 5^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t bump Sanders up to a top-12 play this week, but he’s certainly a serviceable option if your seeking a spot-starter this week because your tight end is on a bye. It’s worth noting that Tommy Tremble is off the injury report this week and is expected to return, and the Panthers have stubbornly treated Tremble as the starter when he’s been healthy. I’d like to believe that Sanders has shown enough over the last month that he should remain the full-time tight end with Tremble back, but we’ve seen Sanders play second-fiddle to Tremble as recently as week 8. Keep an eye on team reports this week to see if the team hints at Sanders being ‘the guy’ at tight end moving forward.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. TB): Just like Sanders above, Johnson gets a favorable matchup this week that makes him worth considering if you need a fill-in TE streamer. It’s hard to say with certainty how the switch to Tommy DeVito will impact Theo, but DeVito targeted tight ends on 17.3% of his throws last year, and much of that was with rookie Daniel Bellinger as his starting tight end, so I think similar usage to what we’ve seen with Daniel Jones is a reasonable expectation for the new rookie. Johnson has reached at least 3 catches and 30 receiving yards in each of the last 3 games and 4 of his last 5, and Tampa allows the 4^th-most tight end points per game. The passing game will still run through Malik Nabers, but Johnson should see at least a few targets come his way as well. Starting Theo probably shouldn’t be the goal this week, but if you’re struggling to find a spot starter, he probably won’t kill you.

TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (Wk. 12: @ Was.): Jake Ferguson left Monday night’s game early with a concussion, and it seems unlikely he’ll get cleared in time to play this weekend. Luke Schoonmaker is the TE2 in Dallas, but both Schoonmaker and Spann-Ford were heavily involved after the injury. Brevyn finished with just a 39% route participation rate, but he hauled in 4 passes for 42 yards on 5 targets as Cooper Rush threw the ball an absurd 55 times. The passing volume should be high again this week as Dallas is a 10.5-point underdog in DC. Washington allows the 15^th-fewest TE points per game, so this is a middling matchup for tight ends. I wouldn’t consider Spann-Ford as a TE1, but if you’re in a pickle for a bye week fill-in for a TE2 or flex spot in TE premium formats, there is some upside here for a player who is rostered in just 2% of dynasty leagues on Sleeper. He’s more likely to be available on the wire in the deepest leagues than Ja’Tavion or Theo.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Week 14 was the start of the fantasy football playoffs and some big things went down before, during and after all the games. In case you haven’t yet, make sure you check out all the crazy stats that Le’Veon Bell racked up on Sunday.

• -          Two NFC South receivers sat out. Sitting out isn’t usually the end of the world because you have a chance to get someone else in the lineup, but missing Julio Jones (turf toe) and Michael Thomas (foot) definitely had an effect on some team’s fantasy playoff outcome. Both guys are questionable to start in Week 15, so keep your eyes peeled to those injury reports.

• -          Two top flight RB’s went down very early in their game. Matt Forte exited the game early with a knee injury, paving the way for Bilal Powell to have a monster game that by all rights should have gone to Forte owners, but hey, “them’s the breaks”! Melvin Gordon was carted off the field with a hip injury and is currently anywhere between being just fine and inches from his deathbed. I suspect he’s more week-to-week and will not be a good bet for Week 15’s lineups. Forte plays on Saturday night, so at least you have plenty of time to plan for alternates if he does not play.

• -          Jeff Fisher was fired as the Rams head coach, just a few games shy of breaking the all-time loss record for head coaches. The Rams were abysmal this season, handing the 49ers their only victory, they left their #1 overall pick on the bench far longer than anyone thought reasonable and they just can’t seem to figure out this thing called “offense”.

• -          Ryan Tannehill exited Sunday’s game with a suspected ACL tear. While he seems to have escaped a full tear, he will not be playing any more games in the regular season. He’s out of the mix as a QB2 and this is a downgrade for Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker, who now have to catch passes from career-backup Matt Moore. I don’t see much of a change for Jay Ajayi who should have success against the Jets and Bills, provided that Moore is not awful.

• -          Aaron Rodgers hurt his calf on the third play of the game, apparently. He didn’t seem too affected by his injury, if so, because he ripped the Seahawks apart much like in the playoffs two years ago. Unlike two years ago, his team held the lead. Rodgers should be just fine going forward, but I suppose it always something you need to keep an eye on.

• -          Matt Stafford made it 8-4^th quarter comebacks on Sunday, but at the expense of his middle finger on his throwing hand. This is an injury he’s expected to play through, but just take note that this is similar to Derek Carr’s injury, and he hasn’t been the same since.

• -          Darren Sproles and fellow backfield mate Wendell Smallwood both exited the game on Sunday due to injury. Smallwood wound up going to the IR for the remainder of the season, but is a hold in dynasty formats. Sproles is in the concussion protocol and needs to get cleared. If he sits on Sunday, then Ryan Mathews is worth a look.

• -          Teams need to start focusing on their extra points more, particularly not getting them returned for 2. Arizona arguably lost the game on Sunday due to not making a single extra point in two attempts, one of them being returned the other way for 2 points. That’s a 4 point swing in a game where they lost by 3. In overtime. Yep, it’s been that kind of season for the Cardinals.

• -          Bryce Petty started and won a game! Granted it was against the hapless 49ers, but this is yet another young QB getting starts and wins before #1 overall pick Jared Goff can get his first. Goff has to go to Seattle this Thursday night, so I really think that RG3 has a better chance at a win this week.

• -          It might have been NBC trying to stir the pot, but the image of Ezekiel Elliott standing next to Tony Romo on the sidelines in the 4^th quarter of the Cowboys game really sticks with me. You know those guys were thinking “Why the hell am I not out there?” I have to say, I agree with them. Despite an 11-2 record, the Cowboys have no business thinking they will win games in December and January when they can only complete 1 out of 9 passes to Dez Bryant and are relying on Cole Beasley and Lance Dunbar for late game heroics. I’m all for keeping Dak Prescott in at QB, but you must keep his weapons around him (and keep them finely honed, not rusty). Of course, now it also seems like he can’t beat the Giants.

We're right into the thick of the fantasy playoffs now. If you've had a bye week, your rest is over and it's time to play! If you won last week, congratulations, but you need to win two more games before we're all impressed! This week, make sure you keep up to date on the best waiver wire pickups as well as the news and updates from around the league.

 This week, both Dave and I agree that Philip Rivers needs to probably ride your bench, unless you have no other options. If you need a fill-in this week at RB, look at Kenneth Farrow who should get the start of Melvin Gordon can't play. Also, keep an eye on AJ Green - if he starts, you probably want him helping you win playoff games. Good luck!

Fantasy Football is now in their playoff season. Things are just as intense in the confidence pool world as well. For those that are hanging on to hope for the season long pool, you need to end the season strong.

The best way to end the season strong? Well, just read on!

Week 15 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

16 – ATLANTA over San Francisco – Funny to think that this was the matchup in a recent NFC Championship game.

15 – SEATTLE over Los Angeles – Every team gets one prime time game a year. The Rams, having just moved to LA, get theirs on the road. So that makes sense.

14 – HOUSTON over Jacksonville – The Texans picked up a huge win in Indy last week. They should easily be able to keep that momentum going with a home game against the lowly Jags.

13 – BUFFALO over Cleveland – The Bills are this high based on who they are playing, not necessarily for how they have been playing themselves.

12 – DALLAS over Tampa Bay – The Bucs are on a roll, but they are standing in the way of an angry Cowboys team with a quarterback with something to prove now.

11 – WASHINGTON over Carolina – The disappointing season for the Panthers can’t end soon enough.

10 – Pittsburgh over CINCINNATI – Just hand the ball to Bell and get out of his way!

9 – Green Bay over CHICAGO – The league’s greatest rivalry is renewed on the lakefront. The Bears may have their answer at quarterback, but it won’t show this week. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that MATT BARKLEY WILL BE THE BEARS STARTING QUARTERBACK WEEK 1 NEXT SEASON.

8 – KANSAS CITY over Tennessee – The Titans aren’t pushovers anymore! It will be a good game but the red hot Chiefs should be able to keep rolling.

7 – Oakland over SAN DIEGO – Playing in San Diego has been a bit of a second home for the Raiders as of late. The fact that Melvin Gordon will be out only helps their road cause.

6 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Detroit – The Giants apparently have the Cowboys number. Now they need to take that momentum and top a division leader to bolster their playoff hopes.

5 – DENVER over New England – This heated rivalry seems to go to the home team as of late. I don’t see things being any different this time around.

4 – BALTIMORE over Philadelphia – The Ravens are still cleaning on to playoff hopes. They need an easy win like this to stay alive.

3 – Indianapolis over MINNESOTA – If the Colts still want a chance at winning the AFC South, they NEED this road win!

2 – ARIZONA over New Orleans – This should have been a game of the week contender. Now…meh.

1 – NEW YORK JETS over Miami – The Jets should be able to take advantage of a Dolphins team with fresh quarterback issues.