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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally arrived at the final week of the fantasy regular season for most leagues. This weekend will be your last chance to improve your positioning as we head into the playoffs. Make sure you know your league’s playoff rules – how many teams get in, how those spots are decided, and what tiebreaker rules are – and make sure you know what you need to do to make the playoffs. It’s good to know if you need huge points this week, or just a win. Don’t get too caught up on other matchups that you need to go one way or another to help you into the playoffs. Focus on only what you can control, your team.

Week 13 saw more struggles for a few of the top rookie pass catchers (Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts and DeVonta Smith), but it was nice to see Najee Harris bounce back to a respectable score and Jaylen Waddle and Elijah Mitchell to each post another productive week. Elijah Moore, Kenneth Gainwell and Amon-Ra St. Brown all found the end zone in impressive performances as well. Zach Wilson stunned us by accounting for 3 TDs in a loss, while Mac Jones only threw 3 passes in a win. It was all in a week’s work for the 2021 rookie crop, and they’ll have plenty more in store for us in week 14.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 14…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 14: @Min.): Harris was a letdown in week 12, and while he didn’t bounce back with a ceiling game last Sunday, he still posted 15+ PPR points for the 10^th time in his last 11 games. This week he faces a Vikings’ defense that allows the 12^th-most running back points per game and ranks 29^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. He should be a safe RB1 as usual.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. SF): Chase got back above 50 yards last week for the first time since week 7, but it was hardly a banner day for him. He’s now averaging just under 11 PPR points per game in his last 5 contests, but he’s also averaged 7.8 targets per game in that span. The points are going to come back, and I think this week is a good opportunity for that to start happening. The 49ers allow more points per game to wide receivers than 4 of the last 5 teams the Bengals have faced, and they’ll be missing starting CB Emmanuel Moseley. Keep firing him up.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): I know Williams feels like he should fall into the auto-start category above after he steamrolled his way to 178 scrimmage yards and a TD last Sunday night, especially heading into a cake matchup with the Lions. I just want to jump in to say pump the brakes just a little bit. Melvin Gordon appears set return this week, and as much as we want Denver to just give the reins of this backfield to Javonte, head coach Vic Fangio was clear after Sunday’s game that they’re going to continue to use both backs when Gordon is healthy. The good news for Javonte is that he was seeing close to 60% of the snaps in the last 2 games Gordon was active, and I’d expect him to be in that range again in this one. Detroit has allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game, and Denver is an 8.5-point favorite, so even 60% of the workload in this matchup puts Williams in a great position to deliver a strong RB2 day. If Gordon somehow is inactive again, Javonte will be in line for another monster day, and would likely be a top-5 play for the week.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 14: @Cin.): Keep a close watch on the injury report with Mitchell. He’s still not practicing as of Thursday due to a concussion and knee irritation. If he manages to get cleared though, he should probably be in your lineup. Mitchell has topped 15 fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games and faces a Cincinnati defense that shouldn’t scare you away. The Bengals have allowed the 13^th-most RB points per game this season. If Mitchell is active this week, he’s a high-end RB2 or low-end RB1 option.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): With Christian McCaffrey back on the shelf, Hubbard should step back in as the starting RB this week against Atlanta. We’ve already seen how this offense looks with Hubbard as the lead back. In his 5 starts the Panthers have fed him the ball. Hubbard averaged 17.8 carries and 3.6 targets per start, and in a game against these Falcons, and he finished with 91 scrimmage yards and a TD. The Falcons have allowed the 7^th-most RB points per game and rank 21^st in run defense DVOA, and the Panthers are favored by 2.5 points, so they game script should allow them to stick with the running game. It’s worth noting that Sam Darnold was the starter for all 5 of Hubbard’s prior starts, and things will be a little different with Cam under center. I still expect the game plan to be run-heavy, but Cam is more likely to vulture goal-line rushing attempts than Darnold. Cam already has 3 rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line in just 3 games on the team. I’d still treat Hubbard as a low-end RB2 this week, but be aware of the Cam vulture possibility if you’re trying to break a tie between Hubbard and another back.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 14: vs. NO): We finally got what we’ve been waiting for and saw a big-time game out of Moore with Zach Wilson at QB. It took 12 targets for Moore to post a 6-77-1 line, but that kind of volume should keep coming with Corey Davis done for the season. Moore faces a daunting matchup with New Orleans. The Saints give up the 4^th-most WR points per game, but Moore should see shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore, who has made life tough on top WRs like Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, and Davante Adams this season. Moore’s volume should be enough to get him through to another WR3 day in spite of this tough individual matchup.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 14: @Min.): Freiermuth has finished as a top-12 TE in 5 of his last 7 games and was 1.2 points away from making it 6 of 7 last weekend. He did post his lowest reception total of any of those 7 games last week, but he makes his fantasy living by getting into the end zone, and the Vikings have allowed 3 tight end scores in the last 3 weeks despite allowing the 8^th-fewest TE points per game. Freiermuth isn’t a slam dunk start this week, but I’d prefer him over most of the available streaming options that’ll be sitting out there on the wire.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 14: @Den.): St. Brown posted his best game as a pro last Sunday, hauling in 10 passes for 86 yards and the game-winning TD that ended the Lions’ long winless streak. He’s clearly a bigger part of the passing game with D’Andre Swift sidelined, and Swift seems likely to miss another game this week. That puts ARSB back on the fantasy radar in PPR formats. He’s got a tougher matchup this week, though. Denver has allowed the 9^th-fewest WR points per game, and Amon-Ra’s individual matchup with Kyle Fuller in the slot could be a tall task. Fuller has played well since moving back to the slot when Ronald Darby returned from injury in week 6. He was picked on a bit by Keenan Allen in week 12, but aside from that game, he’s allowed just 2 completions and 13 yards on 10 targets into his coverage since week 6. ARSB may still have success this week, but I think 4-5 catches for 40-50 yards is much more likely than a repeat of what he did last weekend.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Bateman’s playing time has slowly evaporated since the return of Sammy Watkins, and in week 13 he played behind both Watkins and Devin Duvernay. The Browns allow the 10^th-fewest WR points per game, and it’s hard to envision Rashod posting a useful fantasy day while running a route on fewer than 40% of the Ravens’ pass plays.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 14: @Car.): It’s come to this. I’m advocating for sitting Kyle Pitts in a week where your matchup could be pivotal to making the fantasy playoffs. I’m not saying you should just sit him for anyone, but if you have another reasonable option or can grab a high-end streaming option this week like Tyler Conklin or Jared Cook, I’d think long and hard about it. We’ve already seen how the Panthers will attack Pitts from their first meeting. They’re going to cover him with Stephon Gilmore any time he lines up outside. Gilmore made life miserable for him in the first meeting, as Pitts was limited to just 2 catches for 13 yards on 6 targets. If you’re chasing points in the standings and need more than just a win to make the playoffs, Pitts likely offers a higher ceiling than other comparable options, but the floor here is lower than usual.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 14: @Ten.): Lawrence did post one of his best fantasy days of the season against this Titans’ team, and they’ve allowed the 3^rd-most QB points per game, but they’re not that same defense. The Titans have allowed 20.8 QB fantasy points per game this season. Mac Jones is the only QB to score more than that against them since Josh Allen in week 6, and Jones topped it by less than a point. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense have gone in the opposite direction since that game. Lawrence has accounted for just 3 total TDs in 7 games since the first meeting with the Titans, and he’s topped 200 passing yards in just 3 of them (only one above 240). A turnaround could happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it with your season on the line.

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 14: vs. NO): For 3 glorious drives on Sunday, Zach Wilson flashed the tools that made him the 2^nd overall pick in the NFL draft, accounting for 2 passing scores and another on the ground on the Jets’ first 3 drives of the game. He then turned back into the Zach Wilson we’ve seen the rest of the season, the one who accounted for just 5 total TDs in his first 7 starts. After those first 3 drives Sunday, Wilson went 12-for-25 for 123 yards, zero scores, and 1 INT the rest of the game. The Saints’ defense has given up some ceiling QB weeks this season, but I don’t see how you can rely on Wilson to put one up this week. Wilson has scored a dozen or more fantasy points just 3 times in 8 starts this season, and 12 is significantly lower than the point total you should be hoping for from a QB2.

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Mills has shown flashes of competence in his limited opportunities this season, tallying over 20 fantasy points in two starts against good defenses (Patriots and Rams), but in his other 4 starts the Texans’ offense has mustered a total of just 15 points and only 1 touchdown. They failed to score a point on any of his 4 drives at the helm last Sunday as well. Seattle’s pass defense ranks just 26^th in pass defense DVOA, but they also allow the 8^th-fewest QB points per game and have only allowed multiple TDs to the opposing QB twice in their last 8 games. Mills is a bottom of the barrel QB2 option this week. He could surprise as he’s done a couple other times this season, but the floor is nonexistent.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 14: @GB): I liked Herbert as a sleeper this week before the Thursday news update that David Montgomery has returned to practice. Herbert put up 112 scrimmage yards and a TD in the Bears’ first meeting with Green Bay and would’ve been a solid play if Montgomery was out this week. Instead, he’ll be lucky if he handles 5+ touches.

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 14: @Den.): D’Andre Swift faces long odds to suit up this weekend, but that we saw last weekend that still leaves Jefferson 3^rd in line for RB snaps and touches in this offense. Jamaal Williams and Godwin Igwebuike split the bulk of the backfield work with Swift out in Detroit’s first win of the season. Jefferson played just 8 snaps. He’ll still likely see a handful of carries against a Denver defense that ranks 25^th in run defense DVOA if Swift is out, but that isn’t enough to warrant fantasy consideration.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): With JD McKissic out last weekend, Patterson still played just 4 offensive snaps and handled 1 carry against the Raiders. There’s no reason to count on a lot of usage this weekend.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Felton was limited to just 1 offensive snap in week 12 with Kareem Hunt back. He isn’t going to see the field for more than a couple plays when Hunt and Chubb are both active.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. SF): Evans hasn’t handled more than 1 target in a game since week 6, and he’s only logged rushing attempts in 2 of the 8 games where he’s played offensive snaps.

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): It sounds like Dalvin Cook is going to give it a go on Thursday night barring a setback during pregame warmups, and Nwangwu played just 9 snaps and handled 6 touches with Cook out last Sunday. He’s only worth consideration this week if your league starts a return man.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. LAR): The return of DeAndre Hopkins last week means even less opportunity for Moore, who has topped 30 scrimmage yards just once in the last 7 games. The Rams do allow a lot of yards after the catch (7^th-most in the league), but that really doesn’t matter if Rondale’s only going to get a couple targets.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Collins hasn’t reached 30 receiving yards since week 8, and the Seahawks allow the 7^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Eskridge has seen his snap share increase in each of the last 3 weeks, and he posted his best game of the season last Sunday with 3 catches for 35 yards and a score, but he’s not on the field enough to be anything more than a TD dart throw right now. There isn’t much of a ceiling playing a part-time role in a run first offense, especially in a week where they’re favored by more than a touchdown.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 14: @LAC): Toney still isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, and he hasn’t topped 40 receiving yards since week 5. Even if he ends up playing, you don’t need me to tell you it’d be wise to sit him with possibly Jake Fromm at QB against the defense allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Schwartz still isn’t practicing as of Thursday after missing the last 2 games with a concussion. If he ends up active, his $200 price tag in DK showdown contests would be tempting. He’s played around half of the offensive snaps in all 3 games he’s been healthy for that OBJ didn’t play in and been used as a situational deep threat in them. The Ravens have allowed the most completions of 20+ yards, and the most completions of 40+ yards in the league. It’s still a long shot that the Browns would install those kind of deep shots to Schwartz into the week’s game plan when he hasn’t practiced in nearly 3 weeks.

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Jax.): Fitzpatrick played behind Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Jacob Hollister, and Chester Rodgers ahead of last week’s bye, and the Titans should have Julio Jones back this week. Dez isn’t a fantasy option.

WRs Terrace Marshall Jr. & Shi Smith, CAR (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Marshall was a healthy scratch ahead of last week’s bye, and the Panthers’ firing of Joe Brady probably isn’t a good thing for him. Brady served as OC at LSU during Marshall’s time there and was likely one of his biggest advocates on the coaching staff. Shi Smith stepped in and played 15 snaps in that week 12 game that Marshall sat out, but he wasn’t targeted. Both are off the fantasy radar.

WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Milne has been a healthy scratch each of the last two weeks, and Brown has played fewer than 10 snaps in each of the last 4 games.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Don’t be tempted into thinking this is a good spot for Tremble against a defense allowing the 12^th-most TE points per game. About 30% of the fantasy points and 57% of the TDs the Falcons have allowed to tight ends were given up to Rob Gronkowski in their two meetings with the Bucs. Only two other tight ends have made it to 7 points against them all year (Gesicki and Goedert).

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Jordan is nothing more than a TD dart throw this week, and as mentioned under Davis Mills, Houston likely won’t score more than one touchdown. He’s seen an increased snap share in the last couple of weeks, but he’s still hasn’t been targeted more than 4 times in any game. 4 targets aren’t very useful when you average fewer than 8 yards a catch.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Starting TE Logan Thomas suffered what will be a season-ending knee injury in week 13, but it doesn’t open the door for Bates as Ricky Seals-Jones is set to return from IR this week. Bates is only worth consideration if he’s the only available tight end for the Football Team.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 14: @GB): On paper, the Packers are not an easy QB matchup. They allow the 9^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 10^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’re vulnerable to running QBs. Green Bay has allowed the 5^th-most QB rushing yards per game. They’ve given up totals of 37 yards to Jameis Winston, 46 to Jared Goff, 95 to Taylor Heinicke, and 43 to Fields in the first meeting with Chicago. The Bears offense should get a big boost from the return of Allen Robinson as well, even if his main function in this game is to keep Jaire Alexander occupied. Alexander is expected back from IR as well. You’re barking up the wrong tree if you plan to use Fields in a 1-QB league, but with 4 guys who are typically top-20 QB options on byes (Tua, Wentz, Hurts and Mac Jones), I’m very comfortable taking a swing on Fields’ upside if I’m looking for a QB2 this week.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): The Chargers’ RB2 role behind Austin Ekeler has been a weekly revolving door, but in week 14 the person who ends up in that role could have some relevance. The Chargers enter the week as a 10-point favorite against the Giants, who will be without their starting QB Daniel Jones, and possibly without backup Mike Glennon. It was reported Thursday that Glennon was “moving in the right direction” to be able to play Sunday, but he still needs to clear the concussion protocol. Whether it’s Glennon or 3^rd-stringer Jake Fromm at QB, this should be a convincing win for the Chargers, and that means late garbage time carries against a defense that ranks 31^st in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game. Rountree, Joshua Kelley, and Justin Jackson have each taken a turn in the role in the last 3 weeks, playing about a quarter of the offensive snaps in that turn, and being a non-factor in the other two games. Whichever of that trio holds the role on Sunday will be a value in showdown DFS contests for this game, especially since Austin Ekeler is battling an ankle injury. Rountree and Kelley each cost just $200 on DraftKings for those contests. Jackson costs $2,800. Keep a close eye on team reports this week to see who is active, but if Rountree manages to get into the RB2 role, a double-digit scoring day isn’t impossible.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): Mike Williams is officially ruled out for Sunday on the Covid reserve list, and Keenan Allen could potentially miss this week as well if he can’t get cleared in time. That bodes well for Palmer facing a defense that allows the 10^th-most WR points per game. Palmer and Jalen Guyton will be working as the WR1 and 2 in practice all week as the gameplan is installed, and both will be on the field a lot. To this point of the season, Guyton has typically been on the field twice as often as Palmer, but their target totals are close. In the last 8 games, Guyton has 22 targets to Palmer’s 18. Guyton costs $7,000 on DraftKings for the showdown slate for this game. Palmer costs $200. Both are likely in play as WR4 types this week even if Allen plays and slide up to WR3 options if Allen can’t get cleared in time.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend and helps you find your way into the fantasy playoffs. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the first round of the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. Hopefully you’ve managed to secure a first-round bye and don’t have to worry about coming up with a win this week because Covid-19 and injuries are wreaking havoc on the league. Over 100 NFL players have been added to the Covid reserve list this week and many fantasy-relevant players still have statuses that remain up in the air. You need be vigilant this week about staying up to date on the latest Covid news, because new names have been getting added to the list daily, and you don’t want to get stuck taking a zero from a starter in the playoffs. Plenty of rookies are going to see increased opportunity in this crucial week due to players ahead of them being out, and I’m here to walk you through what to expect from those rookies this week.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 15…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Ten.): Harris had one of his best games of the season last Thursday night, and while the Titans seem like a tough matchup on paper, allowing the 2^nd-fewest running back points per game, they also rank just 18^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. This isn’t a matchup to run away from. He’s not an ideal DFS target this week, but you can’t sit him in season-long leagues.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 15: @Den.): Chase finally posted another ceiling game last Sunday against the 49ers, tallying 83 scrimmage yards and 2 scores. It was his first game over 60 yards since week 7, but it was his fourth 20-point fantasy day of the season. You can’t leave that kind of upside on your bench in the fantasy playoffs. The Broncos are good, but not great at limiting WR points. They allow the 11^th-fewest WR points per game, but rank 19^th in pass defense DVOA. It’s not a matchup to run away from.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 15: vs. Min.): You might not have noticed it since there was a bye week and an injury absence mixed in, but Fields has finished as a top-10 fantasy QB in each of the last 3 full games he’s played, and there’s no reason he can’t make it 4 straight against the Vikings. He’s been more aggressive running the football in recent weeks, averaging 56 rushing yards per game in his last 5 full games with more than 35 yards in each contest. The Vikings have allowed the 9^th-most QB rushing yards per game. Fields also could be in line for a ceiling passing game. In the three games where he’s topped 200 passing yards, he’s connected on downfield throws, averaging 15.7 yards per completion. The Vikings have given up the 4^th-most yards per completion on the season and allowed the 3^rd-most QB fantasy points per game. There’s always risk with Fields due to low passing volume (only 2 games of 30+ pass attempts), but he’s got a big ceiling this week and should be treated as a top-10 QB play.

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 15: @Ind.): Jones doesn’t have the big ceiling that Justin Fields offers, but this is a week where he should be a very strong QB2 in superflex and 2-quarterback leagues. You know the Patriots’ game plan is going to be conservative like it always is, but the Colts rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-fewest rushing TDs in the league. They’ve also allowed the 2^nd-most passing TDs and the 12^th-most QB fantasy points per game. I’d be less than stoked to start him as a QB1 this week, but I expect 200+ yards and a pair of scores, which would make him a high-end QB2.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): Keep a close eye on the injury report if you’re considering starting Mitchell, and make sure you have a backup plan ready since Mitchell doesn’t play until the late afternoon Sunday, but if Elijah is able to play against the Falcons he should probably be in lineups. The Falcons rank 23^rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game. In his last 3 games played, Mitchell has averaged 25 carries and 3 targets per game and the 49ers are 9-point favorites against Atlanta. Even if the 49ers limit his workload a bit, he could still post a top-12 performance in this matchup.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): Vic Fangio wasted no time getting Melvin Gordon back into his normal role upon his return from injury last week, pushing Javonte back into a 50-50 split of the backfield work again. If you have more reliable options this week, don’t be afraid to sit Javonte. I know he’s scored touchdowns in each of the last 3 games, but two of those games came against bottom-5 run defenses, and in the other game he had a workhorse role. The Bengals rank 10^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest running back rushing yards per game. I only lean towards starting Williams because of how messy the situation is with Covid-19 and injuries this week. You know Williams is a threat for 60+ yards and a score every week, even in tougher matchups, but be aware that his outlook isn’t quite as rosy this week as it’s been. I’d treat Williams as a low-end RB2 at best.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (WK. 15: vs. Was.): Smith’s usage has been inconsistent since the Eagles shifted to a run-heavy approach in week 8, and his production bottomed out the last two games with just 4 targets, 2 catches, and fewer than 25 yards for Smith in each game. The Eagles know they have to get the ball to Smith more often, and they may have less of a choice on the matter this week with Quez Watkins on the Covid list. Watkins also saw 8 total targets in those last two games. Jalen Hurts is 50-50 to be able to play this week, and it’s decidedly better for Smith’s outlook if Hurts is able to go, but the matchup this week is a good one. Washington allows the 3^rd-most WR points per game and will likely be without starting corner Kendall Fuller and starting safety Kameron Curl. There’s a low floor for Smith, especially if Minshew starts at QB, but this feels more likely to be a ceiling week for the rookie.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): The Lions are running very short on pass catchers right now, and St. Brown has done an admirable job of picking up the slack in the last two weeks. ARSB has been targeted 12 times in each of the last two games, posting WR6 and WR27 PPR finishes in those contests. Arizona isn’t an easy matchup. They rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA, and slot corner Byron Murphy has allowed a passer rating of just 76.2 on throws into his coverage. The ball is still going to find its way to St. Brown. The Lions will be without TJ Hockenson, and likely without D’Andre Swift as well, and they’re probably going to be playing from behind as usual. St. Brown should be a solid PPR WR3 this week on volume alone. I’d give him a slight downgrade if Swift is able to play, but even then, I’d probably lean towards starting him.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Ten.): The Titans have been stingy against tight ends this season, allowing the 6^th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, but Freiermuth has found the end zone in 5 of his last 7 games, including one score last week against a Minnesota defense that allows the 10^th-fewest TE points, and 2 scores against a Chicago defense that allows the 7^th-fewest TE points. Since JuJu Smith-Schuster went down with injury, Freiermuth has averaged nearly 6 targets per game and has earned a 31% target share in the red zone. His TD upside keeps him in the low-end TE1 range, even in tough matchups.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 15: @Jax.): Mills was impressive for much of last week’s game against the Seahawks, completing his first 15 passes of the game and finishing with 331 yards and a score. On paper, a matchup with Jacksonville, who ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA, seems like an ideal spot for another strong performance, but Mills has usually done the opposite of what you’d expect on paper. His three best fantasy performances have all come against defenses that rank in the top-8 at limiting fantasy points for QBs. The Jaguars actually allow the 9^th-fewest QB points per game, so maybe they fit into that bucket as well, but I’d rather not risk starting Mills as my QB2 with the season at stake. I expect the Jaguars to play inspired football now that they’re no longer cursed with Urban Meyer as their head coach.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 15: @Mia.): Carter is expected to return from IR this week, but he returns to a tough matchup. Carter will likely have a big role for the Jets in this one, but in their last 6 games the Dolphins have only allowed 1 running back to reach 10 fantasy points (Saquon Barkley). You’ll need a big receiving day from Carter for him to even post an RB3 performance with the Jets unlikely to do much running as 8.5-point underdogs. I wouldn’t start Carter in playoff matchups unless you’re desperate.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 15: @Ind.): Stevenson has been very impressive with his opportunities, but Damien Harris is trending in the right direction to play this week and the Colts are a tough matchup. They rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest running back points per game. Rhamondre has rushed for 60+ yards in 4 of the last 5 games, but most of those games were blowout wins and New England is a 2-point underdog in this one. You could do worse than Stevenson if you’re desperate, but this feels like it’ll be a floor game for him.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 15: @Buf.): Week 14 was a clear illustration that Hubbard’s role as lead back is going to look a bit different with Cam Newton at QB rather than Sam Darnold. Hubbard averaged 20 touches per game in his 5-game stint as the lead back with Darnold under center. He touched the ball just 10 times last Sunday as Cam Newton handled more than a third of the team’s designed rushing attempts and vultured a goal-line score. Hubbard still got into the end zone once himself, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat trip this week against a Buffalo defense that ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA. Ameer Abdullah is going to play in passing situations and the Panthers are double-digit underdogs this weekend. Abdullah is the one worth considering this week unless you expect Carolina to play from ahead and have success running the ball.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Bateman posted the first 100-yard game of his career last week, with all the yards coming from the arm of Tyler Huntley. It’s still up in the air whether Lamar Jackson will be able to return this week or not, but Bateman is a risky starting option in your playoff matchups no matter who is at QB. Much of his week 14 production came during a furious rally with the Ravens trailing by multiple scores. He didn’t see his first target of the game until the Ravens were trailing by 21 points, and 4 of his 7 catches came in the last 3 minutes of the game. He’s been impressive when given chances, but those chances only seem to occur when the team is desperate. Over 71% of his yards have come with the Ravens trailing on the scoreboard. The Ravens may find themselves in more desperation time in week 15 as they’re 4.5-point underdogs, but the Packers are a better pass defense than the Browns and may get Jaire Alexander back this week. I view Bateman as an upside WR4 option in this one.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 15: @Jax.): Collins had a breakout game in week 14, garnering a season-high 10 targets, and turning them into 5 catches for 69 yards. It was the kind of week we’ve been waiting for from the rookie, but he had totaled just 6 catches for 62 yards in the previous 4 games. I wouldn’t be willing to bank on Collins repeating his best game of the season in the fantasy playoffs, even in a plus matchup with the Jaguars. If you believe in Davis Mills and the Texans passing game this week, they could be value DFS plays, but I wouldn’t bet on them in playoff matchups.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 15: @Det.): In all honesty, I could probably move Moore down to the rookies you already know to sit, but I want to make sure you aren’t getting any ideas just because DeAndre Hopkins is out, and because the Cardinals are facing the hapless Lions. We’ve already seen that it’s Antoine Wesley who will see increased snaps when Hopkins is out, not Rondale, and Moore’s current usage just isn’t conducive to fantasy production. He’s got an average target depth of just 1.7 yards downfield, and Detroit allows the 6^th-fewest yards after catch in the league. Moore’s best hope for production is if James Conner misses this game and he gets used more often as a rusher in what should be a blowout win, but you can’t count on that.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 15: @SF): I know if you have Pitts, you likely don’t have any better options to play this week than him, but this isn’t a great spot for him. The 49ers have allowed just one tight end to reach 40 receiving yards in their last 12 games, and if you have Pitts on your team, you already know he doesn’t score touchdowns, so the catches and yards are crucial. Pitts has scored just one touchdown all season. If you want to search for a silver lining here, Pitts is still a freakish athlete capable of a big game, and that one tight end who topped 40 yards against San Francisco was CJ Uzomah just last week. Just don’t be surprised if we get another 3-catch, 30-yard type of performance from Pitts again in this one.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 15: @Mia.): The Dolphins have held 3 of the last 5 QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 10 fantasy points, and all 5 to fewer than 18. Wilson has started 9 games this season. He’s posted multiple TDs 3 times, and just 1 TOTAL touchdown in the other 6 starts. I would not expect a ceiling week in this matchup, and I certainly wouldn’t take a chance on it with the season on the line.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 15: vs. Was.): Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard are both practicing in a limited capacity this week and seem to be on track to play. Gainwell hasn’t played more than 20 snaps in any game Howard has been active for this season. Even if one of Sanders or Howard sit, Washington allows the 12^th-fewest RB points per game. Gainwell should be left parked on the bench and not in your playoff lineups.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 15: @Phi.): Patterson hasn’t taken on a bigger role in the last couple weeks, even with JD McKissic sidelined due to a concussion. Instead, he split the backup work with Wendell Smallwood in week 13 and Jonathan Williams in week 14. Antonio Gibson has been seeing his largest snap shares of the season in the past 3 weeks, and there just isn’t enough work leftover for Patterson to have value.  

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 15: vs. Min.): Herbert played fewer snaps than Damien Williams in week 14. It was the first time he played fewer snaps than Williams since week 4. He’s off the fantasy radar so long as David Montgomery is healthy.

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): Jefferson had a golden opportunity last week with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams both sidelined…and he played just 3 offensive snaps as the unknown Craig Reynolds functioned as the team’s lead back with Godwin Igwebuike playing on passing downs. Jermar isn’t worth a roster spot right now in any redraft format.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 15: vs. LV): Felton could see a few more snaps this week with Kareem Hunt out with an ankle injury, but after 2 muffed punts a week ago it’s hard to see the Browns giving him much of an extended role. He’ll still be playing behind Nick Chubb and D’Ernest Johnson.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 15: @Den.): Evans has been inactive in each of the last two weeks with an ankle injury, and he’s logged more than 10 snaps in a game just once all season.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 15: vs. KC): Rountree has been inactive for each of the last 3 weeks, and even if he were suddenly thrust into the RB2 role this week, I wouldn’t expect much of a workload in a game where the Chargers will need to throw to keep pace with the Chiefs.

WR Ben Skowronek, LAR (Wk. 15: vs. Sea.): Skowronek is worth mentioning because he’ll be forced into a much bigger role in the offense if Odell Beckham Jr. can’t get cleared from the Covid list ahead of the game, but he’ll still be a distant 4^th in the target pecking order behind Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee. We’ve seen Skowronek play more than 70% of the offensive snaps once this season, and the result was 1 catch for 8 yards on 5 targets against the 49ers. Seattle allows the 7^th-fewest WR points per game. With your season at stake, you can find a better upside option than Skowronek.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 15: vs. KC): Palmer posted a very nice fantasy day last weekend in Keenan Allen’s absence, but don’t count on a repeat performance with Allen back this week. He’ll go back to his usual role on Thursday night, and in that usual role Palmer hasn’t totaled more than 25 yards in a game. Even in a matchup where the Chargers could be throwing a lot, I wouldn’t trust Palmer.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 15: @Buf.): Marshall was on the field quite a bit in week 14. In fact, his 47% snap share on Sunday was the most he’s played since week 5, but it translated to zero targets in a game where the Panthers threw the ball 35 times. Unless DJ Moore ends up sidelined with his hamstring injury, there’s no reason to consider Marshall even in deep leagues this week. Even if Moore sits, the Bills allow the fewest wide receiver points per game.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): In case you missed the news, Waddle was yet another player added to the Covid reserve list this week, making him unlikely to suit up in a great matchup with the Jets. Albert Wilson is the most likely candidate to fill Waddle’s spot in the lineup, but DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki and the running backs are the places to turn for fantasy options.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Toney’s best game of the season came against the Cowboys in Dallas, with Mike Glennon playing at QB for most of the game. The rookie likely won’t get a chance at a repeat performance. He’s been out with injury the last few weeks and was added to the Covid reserve list this week. His return to the field is very unlikely in week 15.

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 15: @Pit.): Fitzpatrick was inactive last week and was added to the Covid reserve list this week. He’s unlikely to play Sunday and even less likely to produce a fantasy-relevant day.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 15: @Buf.): Tremble hasn’t seen more than 3 targets in a game since week 8, and the Bills have allowed 1 tight end touchdown since week 6. There’s no reason to roll the dice on Tremble.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Urban Meyer is finally out as Jacksonville’s head coach, and for at least this week it should be a big boost for the team. Lawrence has been an abysmal fantasy option in recent weeks, totaling just 1 touchdown in his last 6 games, but this is the week where I expect him to buck that trend. Since 2010, interim head coaches have a record of 14-9 in their first game, and the teams they were stepping in for were a combined 60-164-2 at the time the previous head coach was fired. That’s a winning percentage that’s 34% higher in the first game under an interim coach. This points to the Jaguars being very likely to beat the Texans, and if they win, I like Lawrence’s chances of finishing as a mid-range QB2. Admittedly, this is more of a hunch than a well-reasoned decision. The Texans have actually been decent against QBs and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’re far from an unbeatable defense.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 15: @LAR): Eskridge has seen his playing time increase each week since returning from IR, and in week 14 he finally out-snapped Freddie Swain for the first time this season. Tyler Lockett was placed on the Covid reserve list this week, and the Rams have FIVE defensive backs currently on the Covid list as well, including both starting cornerbacks and their starting strong safety. I’d look for the Rams to use the blitz to try and cover for their lack of DB depth, and Eskridge could be a popular outlet option with speed to burn after the catch. If you’re desperate in a deep redraft league, Eskridge is probably available on the waiver wire. The floor is non-existent, but 15+ points is not impossible for Eskridge if Lockett misses this game.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 15: @Phi.): I wouldn’t consider Brown in any fantasy playoff matchups this week, but Terry McLaurin was concussed last weekend and Curtis Samuel is ailing again as well. There’s a clear path to a lot of playing time for Brown if both McLaurin & Samuel are inactive, and Brown costs just $200 for the DraftKings showdown slate. We’ve seen this story play out before. Brown didn’t do much with extended playing time early in the season, and the Eagles have allowed the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but it’s still hard to ignore a guy with a potential full-time role that costs the minimum in a limited slate contest.

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 15: @Jax.): Since their week 7 bye, the Jaguars have allowed just one tight end touchdown (to George Kittle) and haven’t allowed a single tight end to reach 50 receiving yards against them, but Jordan’s recent spike in usage is impossible to ignore. He was only running a route on about 40% of the Texans’ dropbacks each of the last two weeks, but he was targeted on more than a quarter of his routes. He’s now seen the ball come his way 11 times in the last two weeks, and I think that increased opportunity for him is here to stay with Davis Mills now installed as the starting QB. He’ll need to get in the end zone to be a worthwhile play this week, even as a cheap DFS option, but he’s found the end zone 3 times in the last 6 games and should be a safe bet for 4+ targets on Sunday.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 15: @Phi.): Bates has been mostly an afterthought in this passing game, seeing 4+ targets just once all season, but he played a bigger role than I expected last week with Ricky Seals-Jones back from IR and gets the best possible tight end matchup in week 15. Bates was in a route on 63% of Washington’s dropbacks last Sunday compared to 40% for RSJ, even if Seals-Jones did out-target him 4 to 2. The Eagles allow the most tight end points per game and have allowed a tight end TD in 9 of their last 11 games. I do expect Seals-Jones’ playing time to increase going forward, but RSJ costs $5,400 for the showdown slate for this game on DraftKings while Bates’ costs just $1,000, and backup tight ends have scored against Philly with regularity. I wouldn’t fire up Bates in any fantasy playoff matchups this weekend, but he has DFS upside.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend and helps you advance in the fantasy playoffs. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! If you thought surviving last week’s Covid nightmare week was fun, how about we do it all over again? Week 16’s news updates have included an onslaught of positive Covid tests and have left a lot of playoff fantasy rosters scrambling. We already saw last week how rookies like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Fields can be useful fill-ins, and there are certainly going to be more rookies that can help fill gaps in week 16. I’m here to walk you through what to expect from the rookie crop in this crucial fantasy week.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 16…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 16: @KC): Harris has posted a couple duds in recent weeks, including an awful game last week against the Titans, but he should be in line for a bounce back game against the Chiefs. Kansas City has allowed the 12th-most running back points per game and has given up the 5th-most RB receptions and 3rd-most RB receiving yards. Najee is tied with Austin Ekeler for the 2nd-most RB receptions this season. His workload isn’t going anywhere. Najee is still a top-12 RB play this week despite some recent down games. You have to keep starting him. 

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 16: @NO): Waddle has hauled in 8 or more receptions in 4 of his last 5 games played, and the Saints have allowed the 7th-most WR points per game. Marshon Lattimore isn’t going to cover Waddle in the slot. Don’t overthink this one. Waddle is a WR2 this weekend. 

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 16: vs. Bal.): You might not be still in the fantasy playoffs if you were relying on Chase last week, but you have to go back to the well again this week if you’re still alive. Chase has too high of a ceiling to leave him on your bench. The Ravens lost Marlon Humphrey to a season-ending pec injury a couple weeks ago, and this week will be without Jimmy Smith on the Covid list. The Bengals are going to try to take some deep shots to take advantage, and Chase topped 200 receiving yards against the Ravens when their corners were healthy. You’ll be kicking yourself if he scores 20+ points from your bench. 

Borderline Rookies I Would Lean Toward Starting: 

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 16: @Sea.): Fields has finished as a top-10 QB in each of his last 4 full games played, and there’s no reason he can’t make it 5-for-5 this week. The Seahawks have allowed the 10th-fewest QB points per game, but they rank just 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. They’ve allowed the 5th-fewest QB rushing yards, but most of the QBs they’ve faced have been statues. They’ve faced only 6 QBs all season with more than 100 rushing yards on the year, and 4 of them ran for more than 20 yards against the Seahawks. Fields will have his usual rushing upside, and he’ll have a chance to throw a bunch as well with the Bears a touchdown underdog. If you’re looking for a streaming QB this week, Fields would be a good option again. 

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 16: @LV): Williams continues to split the backfield with Melvin Gordon, but it hasn’t stopped him from coming on strong late in the season. Williams has topped 80 scrimmage yards in 4 of his last 5 games, 4 of which Melvin Gordon was active for. The Raiders allow the 3rd-most RB points per game, and the running back pool is a little depleted this week with Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook and Elijah Mitchell all likely sidelined. The Broncos are likely to lean on the ground game even more than usual with Drew Lock under center. I’d look at Javonte as a mid-range RB2 with the upside for a lot more. 

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Carter split the backfield with Tevin Coleman in his return from IR last week, but I’d expect him to take more of a lead role as he’s another week removed from his injury, and the Jaguars allow the 13th-most RB points per game. The Jets are actually favored for once, so I’d expect them to be able to run the ball a bit more than usual, so a lead back role for Carter probably means 15+ touches against a middling run defense. He’s not an auto-start this week, but he’s a top-24 option at the position this week. 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 16: @Atl.): This is contingent on Jared Goff getting cleared from the Covid list in time for this game, but ARSB should be a solid WR3 this week if that happens. He may not see another dozen targets if D’Andre Swift is able to get cleared to play, but he’ll still be the top target among the wide receivers against a defense that allows the 3rd-most wide receiver points per game. He’s a safe bet for 8+ targets in a plus matchup no matter who is at QB for the Lions, but if it’s Tim Boyle, I’d view him more as a WR4 than WR3. The Falcons slot corner Richie Grant has allowed a passer rating of 111.6 and 8.2 yards per target on throws into his coverage. Editor's note: As of Friday morning, Goff is unlikely to start.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Pitts hasn’t set the world on fire in recent weeks, but he’s earned 6+ targets in all but 2 games this season, and the Lions defense ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA and is just a middling defense against tight ends, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position. If you don’t have a top-8 tight end, you’re going to have a hard time finding an option who has a higher yardage floor than Pitts. Pitts is one of the few tight ends once you get past the studs who could give you a strong performance without finding the end zone. 

Borderline Rookies I Would Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): It’s safe to assume that Jones is going to throw the ball more than 3 times in this go-round with the Bills, but he still is unlikely to be a good fantasy option. Big Ben Roethlisberger scored 12.04 fantasy points against the Bills in week 1. That is still the most fantasy points any QB has scored against the Bills without scoring a rushing touchdown, and Mac hasn’t scored a rushing TD since early last season at Alabama. He also may be playing without Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne this week. Jones should be considered a low-end QB2 for this week. 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Damien Harris is practicing in a limited capacity this week, and Stevenson is sitting out of practice with an illness (not Covid-19 as far as we know). I’d expect both to be active this week, but I don’t expect Stevenson to provide a useful fantasy day without finding his way into the end zone. In New England’s first meeting with Buffalo, the Patriots asserted their will in the ground game and Stevenson handled 24 rushing attempts. Rhamondre finished that week as the RB28. I wouldn’t expect much more than that this week in a game where the Patriots are sure to throw the ball more often than the first meeting. 

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. TB): The potential return of Sam Darnold makes Hubbard a better play this week than he was last week, but Matt Rhule announced this week that Cam Newton and Darnold will both play in this game, making it too muddy of a situation to trust Hubbard in the fantasy playoffs. Ameer Abdullah has fully taken over the passing down role in the offense since Christian McCaffrey went down with injury, and Hubbard splits the rushing work with Newton whenever Cam is on the field. Chuba handled 19 touches in the last 2 weeks while Cam rushed the ball 25 times himself. Even if we knew Hubbard was getting all of the rushing work to himself, the Panthers are 11-point underdogs and will be throwing a bunch, and the Bucs allow the 3rd-fewest rushing yards per game. Hubbard would be a dicey RB3 option if Darnold was going to be under center all game. With Cam and Darnold splitting the QB job, Hubbard is an even worse play than that. 

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Smith hasn’t seen more than 6 targets come his way in the last 7 games, and this week is shaping up as a week where the Eagles probably won’t have to throw much. The Giants rank just 28th in run defense DVOA and will be playing with a backup QB. Philly should have no problem running it down their throats. Smith will also likely be shadowed by James Bradberry, who held him to 2 catches and 22 yards on 4 targets in the last meeting between these teams. Smith’s ceiling has been lowered in recent weeks due to Dallas Goedert’s increased receiving usage and the team’s run-heavy approach, and this game has all the makings of being a floor week for Smith. 

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 16: @Cin.): Bateman was on the field for almost every offensive snap in week 15 with Sammy Watkins sidelined, but Tyler Huntley only had eyes for Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown in the passing game, as that duo combined for a nearly 70% target share. I’d expect those targets to be a little more spread out in this one, but Bateman has been held under 40 yards in 4 of his last 5 games. There is upside for Bateman this week - the Ravens are a 3-point underdog, Sammy Watkins is on the Covid reserve list this week, and the Bengals fielding just a middling pass defense, but the floor is low as well. I’d look for a safer option than Bateman in the fantasy playoffs. 

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Collins has been much more involved for the Texans in recent weeks, with 20 targets in the last 4 weeks, but this week he faces a Chargers’ defense that allows the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and he’s topped 30 receiving yards just once in his last 6 games. Collins may see 6+ targets in this game with the Chargers heavily favored, but it’s hard to count on him returning more than WR4 production in this crucial week. 

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 16: @Hou.): The Chargers placed Jalen Guyton on the Covid list this week, which should open up playing time for Palmer if Guyton can’t get cleared before this game. I still wouldn’t expect a big week for Palmer. The Chargers are nearly double-digit favorites in this game, so they should lean on the run game, even if Austin Ekeler is out, and the Texans are much more susceptible to the run than the pass. They rank 10th in pass defense DVOA. Palmer will still be no better than 3rd in the target pecking order in this game. It would be a pleasant surprise if Palmer tops 50 yards in this game. 

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 16: @KC): Freiermuth suffered a concussion in week 15 and might not clear the protocol in time to face the Chiefs. If he does get cleared, this isn’t a slam-dunk start for him. Muth has gotten by on touchdowns. He’s failed to top 50 yards in any game since week 6, but he’s found the end zone 6 times in the last 8 games. Kansas City hasn’t allowed a tight end touchdown since week 8. The Steelers could be forced to throw a bunch as a 10-point underdog, but I’d still view Freiermuth as a fringe TE1 play if he’s able to go. I’d be looking for a higher upside option in the fantasy playoffs. Zach Gentry would have a little deep league appeal if Pat is out. 

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit: 

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): This is a favorable matchup for Wilson against a defense that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA, but he’s still playing without his top 2 wide receivers and hasn’t been a trustworthy fantasy option. Wilson has averaged just 186 passing yards per game since returning from IR and has accounted for more than 1 score in just 3 games all season. The Jets are actually favored to win this game, which may mean even lower passing volume than usual. He’s only worth consideration if you’re desperate for a QB2. 

QB Ian Book, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Mia.): Book is likely to make his first start this week with Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian both on the Covid reserve list, but he shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineups. The Dolphins have given up an average of fewer than 12 QB fantasy points per game during their 6-game winning streak, and the Saints will likely be conservative with the game plan and try to win behind their defense and Alvin Kamara. There is a little bit of Konami code rushing upside to Book’s game. He ran for over 1,000 total rushing yards in his last two seasons at Notre Dame, so he’ll be interesting in showdown contests if the price is right, but there are currently no showdown prices posted on DraftKings for this game. Book is a bottom-of-the-barrel play in season-long leagues. 

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Gainwell was an afterthought in the Philly offense last week in a comfortable win against a shorthanded Washington team, with Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard handling the backfield work, and I’d expect similar usage this week unless the Eagles pull away and blow the Giants out. Philly is a 10-point favorite, so that’s entirely possible, but it’s not something I’d want to rely on in the playoffs. 

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 16: @Sea.): Herbert did get some extended run in hurry-up mode late on Monday night, catching 3 passes for 34 yards, and the Bears may try to get him more involved with their season essentially over. He’s still averaged just 3 touches per game since David Montgomery returned from IR (no more than 5 touches in any single game). I wouldn’t be seriously considering him anywhere unless we get word that the Bears are going to cut back on Monty’s usage down the stretch. 

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Patterson scored his first NFL touchdown on Tuesday night, but he’s still not seeing a ton of playing time as Antonio Gibson has taken over a bigger share of the backfield workload with JD McKissic sidelined. Gibson has played more than two-thirds of the offensive snaps in each of the last 4 games, and Patterson has totaled just 10 touches in the 3 games that McKissic has missed. The Cowboys allow the 3rd-fewest RB points per game, so Patterson is unlikely to do much damage on only a handful of touches. 

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 16: @GB): Felton was on the field for more than 50% of the Browns’ offensive snaps last week with the team drastically shorthanded at wide receiver and tight end due to a Covid outbreak, but it led to just 4 targets, 3 catches and 16 yards. Keep an eye on the injury updates, but I’d expect Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper to each return this week, which would push Felton back to the bench. He’s a low-upside dart throw if both remain sidelined again. 

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Jefferson already isn’t getting onto the field behind Craig Reynolds and Godwin Igwebuike (9 total snaps in the last two weeks). Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift may both be back this week. A healthy scratch is very possible for Jermar.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 16: vs. Bal.): Evans returned from his ankle injury last week but logged just 6 snaps and zero touches. He’s got some work to do to get back into the mix in the Bengals’ backfield. 

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 16: @Ten.): If you missed the news, Mitchell has been ruled out for Thursday night’s tilt with the Titans. It’ll be Jeff Wilson, JaMycal Hasty and Deebo Samuel manning the 49ers’ backfield again on Thursday. 

WR Ben Skowronek, LAR (Wk. 16: @Min.): Skowronek played his best game of the season on Tuesday night, but it was likely just a blip on the radar for him. He hauled in 4 passes for 42 yards on 5 targets but was on the field for just 21 snaps. You can’t rely on that kind of production repeating itself on that kind of playing time, even against a Minnesota defense that allows the most wide receiver points per game. A repeat of last week’s performance would be a pleasant surprise. 

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Rondale has one game of 50+ scrimmage yards in his last 9 contests, and now is battling through an ankle injury that held him out of practice early in the week. There’s no reason to expect a breakout game this week against a Colts’ defense that’s in the top half of the league at limiting WR fantasy points. 

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 16: @Phi.): Toney has a chance to finally return to action this week, but he’s had a 5-week layoff and will be facing a defense that allows the 3rd-fewest wide receiver points per game. He also may have Jake Fromm at quarterback. I wouldn’t count on him this week. 

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Tyler Lockett has been cleared to return from the Covid reserve list, so Eskridge moves back into a timeshare for the WR3 role with Freddie Swain this week. The rookie had a chance at a big game last week – he was targeted deep downfield 4 times but failed to convert any of them into catches. I wouldn’t expect him to see that kind of opportunity this week with Lockett back, even in a plus matchup against the Bears. 

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Marshall hasn’t caught a pass since week 6 and hasn’t been targeted more than twice in a game since week 5. Even if the Panthers’ passing game improves with the return of Sam Darnold, you can’t trust Marshall in any lineups. 

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 16: @GB): Schwartz returned last Monday after missing 3 games with a concussion, but he played just 13 snaps and wasn’t targeted despite the Browns being short-handed at wide receiver. It’s possible that his playing time gets ramped up as he gets further away from the injury, but I’d expect Jarvis Landry back this week as well. Steer clear until we see more from Schwartz. 

WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Over Washington’s last 5 games, Milne and Brown have combined for 4 targets, 3 receptions, and 9 receiving yards. Don’t even consider it. 

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. SF): Fitzpatrick missed week 15 on the Covid list, but even if he returns this week, I wouldn’t expect a substantial role in the offense. AJ Brown could return this week, and Julio Jones came back last weekend. Even if Fitzpatrick gets cleared and AJ Brown can’t play Thursday night, Fitzpatrick will have missed practice all week and likely won’t be part of the game plan. 

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Smith-Marsette managed to score his first touchdown last week, but he did so with both Adam Thielen and Dede Westbrook sidelined. Westbrook was cleared to return from the Covid list Tuesday and Thielen is expected back as well. Ihmir would be lucky to play any offensive snaps this week. 

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (WK. 16: vs. TB): Tremble gets a decent matchup this week against a bottom-10 tight end defense, but he’s reached 25 receiving yards just twice all year and the Panthers’ revolving door at QB this week is going to make it tough for Tremble to have a breakout game. 

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Bates has played more than 60% of the Washington’s offensive snaps in each of the 2 games since Ricky Seals-Jones returned from IR and came up a yard short of a touchdown on Tuesday night, but RSJ is the tight end to consider in this offense. Seals-Jones has been targeted 11 times in the last two games. Bates has been targeted 3 times. You’d have to be pretty desperate to be considering Bates this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options: 

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Mills was the 8th QB selected in this year’s NFL draft, but he’s outperformed most of the QBs selected ahead of him and gets a better matchup this week than you think. The Chargers have allowed 16+ fantasy points to each QB they’ve faced in the last 7 games, a stretch that included matchups with Mike Glennon and Teddy Bridgewater. Davis has averaged 18 fantasy points per game in his last 3 starts. There’s downside, but Mills is a sneaky QB2 option this week for an improving Texans’ offense. 

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 16: @NYJ): I know, there’s no way to trust T-Law in your fantasy playoffs after he’s accounted for just 1 touchdown in his last 7 games, but if a breakthrough is ever going to happen this season, it’s probably going to happen this week. The Jets have allowed multiple touchdowns (passing or rushing) to each of the last 10 QBs they’ve faced, and this week they’re likely to be without 6 defensive starters due to Covid-19, including 3 defensive backs. The Jaguars are undoubtedly going to lean on James Robinson in this game, but Lawrence has a real chance to finish as a top-15 QB this week. Of course, there’s risk given Lawrence’s recent performances, but there’s upside as well. 

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Nwangwu looked impressive on limited touches on Monday night, and he could be in line for expanded touches this week after Dalvin Cook tested positive for Covid this week. Alexander Mattison was activated from the Covid reserve list this week, and he’ll undoubtedly be the lead back, but Nwangwu only needs a few touches to have a chance to make an impact with his speed. He’s a sneaky option for DFS contests this week. With Cook being unvaccinated, there is a chance that he doesn’t get cleared for week 17 either, this could be a multi-week role for Kene. 

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 16: @Hou.): Disregard this if Austin Ekeler gets himself cleared from the Covid list, but there could be an opening for Rountree to have a role this week if Ekeler’s out. Rountree has been a healthy scratch in 3 of the last 4 weeks, but Joshua Kelley’s goal line fumble against the Chiefs may have opened the door for him. I’d expect Justin Jackson to function as the lead back (Austin Ekeler himself even said you should pick up Jackson on his weekly Yahoo! Fantasy football show this week), but Rountree could take over short-yardage and goal line situations. Houston ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and has allowed 6 running back rushing scores in the last 3 weeks. You can’t use Rountree in the fantasy playoffs, but he costs just $200 in showdown contests on DraftKings. 

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Jordan was active last week after battling through a hand injury during the week but didn’t play a single offensive snap. He’s practicing in full ahead of this week’s game with the Chargers. Jordan was targeted 11 times in weeks 13 & 14, and no team allows more points per target to tight ends than the Chargers. Los Angeles has also allowed a league-high 12 tight end scores. Jordan has more upside than usual this week, and has a great chance to finish as a top-15 TE for the week. 

TE Noah Gray, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Travis Kelce and Blake Bell are both currently on the Covid reserve list, which means Gray steps in as the starting tight end this week if neither can get cleared to return, and we know the tight end is an integral part of this offense. Gray obviously wouldn’t be the same focal point that Kelce is, but he’s likely to see a handful of targets come his way. The Steelers are a tough matchup, allowing the 8th-fewest tight end points per game, but Gray could make a great bargain basement DFS option this week. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend and helps you advance in the fantasy playoffs. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally arrived at the week we’ve been waiting for – Championship Week! Hopefully your squads have survived the rigors of the season, and the multitude of injury and Covid-19 absences in recent weeks to make it this far. Hopefully you didn’t get Tee Higgins’d, or Justin Jackson’d or Rex Burkhead-ed last weekend. Week 16 served as a valuable reminder that it doesn’t matter what your team did for the first 15 weeks of the season. What matters is what they do this week. Don’t completely throw caution to the wind and bench your best players, but don’t be afraid to think a little outside the box this week.

I want to emphasize, this week of all weeks, not to take the headers below as gospel. Please consider your league rules and what your roster looks like when applying any of the advice below. Don’t start Rhamondre Stevenson over a back like Ronald Jones or Chase Edmonds, or Amon Ra-St. Brown over receivers like Michael Pittman or Brandin Cooks just because I said I’d lean towards starting them. Put it in the context of your team and make the decision that makes the most sense for your roster.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 17…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): The Browns aren’t a great matchup for running backs, allowing the 10^th-fewest running back points per game, but Najee has scored a dozen or more fantasy points in 12 of his 15 games this season, including 19.5 points in his first meeting with the Browns. He has to be in your lineup this week if you have him.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 17: vs. KC): Chase got back on track in week 16 with his first 100-yard game since October, and that should give you the confidence you need to fire him up Sunday. The Chiefs aren’t a pushover on defense, allowing the 11^th-fewest WR points per game and ranking 13^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, but they’re hardly a matchup to run away from. The Bengals have been more pass-heavy in recent weeks (Joe Burrow has averaged 35.5 attempts in the last 4 weeks after averaging 30.8 prior to that), and they’ll likely have to throw in this one as 5-point underdogs. We’ve seen that the floor isn’t as rock solid as we’d like with Chase, but few WRs can match his ceiling.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 17: @Ten.): Since Tua returned from IR in week 6, Waddle is the PPR WR7. He’s tallied 7+ receptions in 7 of 9 games in that stretch, and 60+ receiving yards in 8 of 9. He hasn’t flashed week-winning upside often, but he should be as safe as it gets facing a Titans’ defense that allows the 2^nd-most WR points per game.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 17: vs. Hou.): Lance is in line to make his second start of the season with Jimmy Garoppolo battling a thumb ailment, and he gets a reasonable matchup in the Houston Texans. The Texans have been playing better defense in recent weeks, holding 4 of the last 7 QBs they’ve faced below a dozen points, but for the season they’ve allowed the 15^th-most QB points per game and rank a middling 15^th in pass defense DVOA. Lance’s rushing ability also gives him a built-in floor that those other QBs the Texans limited didn’t have. The Texans have allowed the 2^nd-fewest QB rushing yards per game, which sounds daunting for Lance...but in the two games where Lance has seen extended playing time, he ran for 41 yards in one half against the defense that allows the 4^th-fewest QB rushing yards (Seattle), and for 89 yards against the defense that allows the 12^th-fewest QB rushing yards (Arizona). Designed runs will be a part of the game plan, and I expect Lance to put up the highest QB rushing total the Texans have allowed this season (their current high is 41). I’d view Lance as a low-end QB1 this week, and he could finish as a high-end QB1 if he has an efficient passing day.

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Jax.): I’d only lean towards playing Jones in 2-QB and Superflex formats, but the Jaguars have proven easier to attack through the air than on the ground this season. Blowout losses have limited how much passing volume the Jaguars have faced, but QBs have still done some damage with that limited volume. 6 of the last 9 QBs they faced threw for fewer than 200 yards, but 4 of those 6 QBs still put up 15+ fantasy points. The Jaguars rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and a middling 16^th in run defense DVOA. The Patriots are favored by 16.5 points, so this one very well could get out of hand and have the Pats running for much of the 2^nd half, but I like Jones’ chances to make an impact before it’s too lopsided. A 200-yard, 3-score kind of game is what you’re hoping for here.

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): It feels like only yesterday that twitter was cracking jokes about Mills’ weirdly long giraffe neck, but his play on the field over the last couple months should have them talking about him for a different reason. In his last 4 starts, Mills has averaged 276 passing yards per game, and racked up a 7 to 2 TD:INT ratio, and he’s finished as a top-15 fantasy QB in every one of those weeks. All 4 of the defenses he faced in those games have allowed fewer QB points per game this season than the 49ers. Mills isn’t going to go out and drop 25+ fantasy points in championship week. He doesn’t have that kind of big ceiling, but he’s a much safer QB2 option than you might realize.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 17: vs. Hou.): Mitchell seems to be trending in the right direction to play this week, and coach Kyle Shanahan is quoted as saying “We’ll play Elijah as much as he can handle.” The 49ers are likely to run the ball as much as they can against a Houston defense that ranks 26^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 4^th-most running back points per game, and the threat of QB Trey Lance running the ball could make it even easier for Mitchell to find space to run. There’s obvious baked-in risk here since Mitchell has missed the last 3 games and could be eased in, but the upside in this matchup is big if he sees 15+ touches. I’d treat him as an upside RB2 in championship week.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Jax.): If you read about Mac Jones above, you know that the Patriots are more than a 2-touchdown favorite in this game, and that should mean a lot of Rhamondre and Damien Harris. The Jaguars have been an average run defense, ranking 16^th in run defense DVOA, but Stevenson should see plenty of volume in a one-sided game. Stevenson has handled 10+ carries in 5 of the last 6 games he’s played. He topped 60 rushing yards in 4 of them and seems a sure bet for 10+ carries again this week. I wouldn’t treat him as a surefire top-20 play this week, but if you’re searching for a flex play, Stevenson is a player I like this week. If you do plan to start him, keep an eye on reports from the Pats to make sure he isn’t suffering any ill effects from his bout with Covid. If he’s good to go, he’s a strong flex play/RB3.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 17: @Sea.): ARSB has already shown us that he can produce without Jared Goff under center, posting a 9-91-1 receiving line with Tim Boyle under center last week. I’m not going to be the one to bet against him keeping it up just because D’Andre Swift is back. St. Brown has seen 11+ targets in 4 straight games and faces a defense this week that ranks 28^th in pass defense DVOA. Swift will likely cut into his target share a little bit, but he’s likely going to be in the range of 7-9 targets against this defense, which is enough to make the Sun God an upside PPR WR3 again this week.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 17: @Was.): Smith has shown us the peaks and valleys that come with being the WR1 in a run-heavy offense over the last two months. Devonta’s played 8 games since the Eagles’ philosophical shift to running the ball happened. He scored over 17 fantasy points in 3 of them, and fewer than 6 points in 4 of them, including in the first meeting with Washington. That same boom-or-bust element applies in week 17, but I like Smith’s chances at greatly improving on the 3-40 line he posted against Washington two weeks ago. In that game, Washington was missing key pieces of their front 7 due to Covid, and the Eagles were able to have their way with them on the ground, running for over 6 yards per carry with their running backs. Most of those Washington defenders are now back, and the Eagles will be playing without Miles Sanders and possibly without Jordan Howard (the two backs who piled up those yards). I don’t expect Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell to have the same success running the ball this time around against a defense that ranks 15^th in run defense DVOA. That means increased passing volume against a defense that allows the 3^rd-most WR points per game. I think Smith posts a double-digit point performance Sunday.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 17: vs. TB): You probably aren’t considering Wilson anyway, but Tampa has allowed the 9^th-most QB points per game and have already ruled out two of their top pass rushers for this week (Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett). Wilson also flashed some running ability last week against the Jaguars. There are reasons to think he’s a sneaky QB2 play this week despite being a 2-touchdown underdog. I just want to remind you that it’s not worth the risk in championship week. Wilson has thrown for 230+ yards just twice all year, run for 20+ just twice all year, and accounted for multiple TDs just 4 times in 11 starts, and the Bucs rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA. It would be a huge roll of the dice to trust Wilson in championship week.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 17: @LAC): With Drew Lock under center, the Broncos’ run game cratered last week as the Raiders were able to focus on stopping Williams and Melvin Gordon. Williams posted 12 yards and a score on 7 rushes while Gordon ran 7 times for negative-4 yards. The matchup is better this week against a Chargers’ defense that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA, but the Denver passing game will offer even less of a threat this week with Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick sidelined by Covid, and Williams is battling through a knee injury that may have contributed to his poor performance last week. There’s plenty of upside here as the Chargers allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game, but I’d rather rely on a more trustworthy option with my season on the line this week.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 17: vs. TB): Carter returned from IR last week and handled a 74% snap share and 19 touches in a strong performance against the Jaguars. The sledding gets much tougher this week against Tampa Bay. Carter should again handle most of the backfield work, which puts him very much in play as an RB2 or RB3 this week, but Tampa has allowed the 3^rd-fewest rushing yards this season and ranks 11^th in run defense DVOA. They’ve been vulnerable to backs in the passing game, allowing nearly 7 receptions per game to backs, but Carter hasn’t been targeted by Zach Wilson more than 3 times in any game this season. All of his best receiving efforts happened while Wilson was sidelined. Counting on garbage time receiving work for Carter seems like an ill-advised strategy in championship week.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): Hubbard has averaged just 8 carries and fewer than 1 target per game in the last 3 weeks, and this week faces a defense that ranks 1^st in run defense DVOA and allows the fewest running back points per game. He’ll continue to operate as the lead back on early downs, but even if the Panthers are more competitive this week and Hubbard gets more carries, there’s no guarantee he’s more successful with those carries or that he won’t get vultured by Cam at the goal line. I wouldn’t count on double-digit points for Chuba.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. LAR): Bateman has been playing an every down role the last two weeks, and the Ravens are underdogs and should be throwing against a middling Rams’ WR defense (they allow the 15^th-fewest points per game to the position). Despite that, I’d steer clear of him in your championship matchups. There’s a possibility Sammy Watkins sees more work this week in his second game back from the Covid list, and Bateman has really only had one productive quarter in his last 5 games. He tallied 5 receptions for 79 yards in the 4^th quarter of a furious comeback attempt against the Browns in week 14. Outside of that quarter, he’s totaled 11 catches, 115 yards, and 1 touchdown in the last 5 games. Of course, there’s upside for him here if the Ravens fall behind and have to throw, but a 4-30 kind of game is just as likely (if not more likely) than an 80+ yard day.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): Collins has come on a bit in recent weeks, with double-digit PPR points in two of his last 3 games, but his production hasn’t been consistent enough to trust him this week with your season on the line. The 49ers do allow the 9^th-most WR points per game, but Brandin Cooks is easily the WR1 in this offense that has thrown the ball 30 or fewer times in 5 of their last 6 games. It’s possible the Texans fall in a hole and have to throw a bit more in this one (they’re 12.5-point underdogs), but I like their chances to stay within striking distance as Trey Lance makes just his 2^nd NFL start. Despite Collins’ recent increased workload, he’s reached 35+ receiving yards just once in the last 7 games.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 17: vs. Den.): Palmer was a great streamer play in two of the last 3 weeks while the Chargers battled Covid issues in their wide receiver room. He posted 15+ PPR points in week 14 and week 16, but both Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton have been cleared to return this week. We’ve seen a trend of players coming off the Covid list getting their workload dialed back a bit, so Palmer could still see extended playing time, but the Broncos allow the 8^th-fewest WR points per game. The matchup isn’t good, and Palmer’s floor is basically non-existent if Williams and Guyton get their usual workloads.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): Freiermuth is expected back this week, and you know what to expect from him if he plays. He’s going to probably have 3-4 receptions for 30-40 yards, and he may or may not find the end zone. It’s that last part that will determine if he was a good play or not. Freiermuth has found the end zone in 6 of the last 9 games he’s played, including in the first meeting with these Browns, but many of the TDs the Browns have allowed to tight ends have been to elite players at the position. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have accounted for half of the 8 TDs the Browns have allowed to tight ends. Ultimately, if you’re projected to win your matchup this week and just need floor production from the position, Freiermuth is probably fine, but he doesn’t provide much upside beyond 15 or so PPR points. He’s a low-end TE1 this week.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 17: @Buf.): You might not have a better option on your roster but be warned that this is a dangerous matchup for Pitts. The Bills allow the 3^rd-fewest tight end points per game and have only allowed 2 tight ends all season to score as many as 9 fantasy points (Logan Thomas and Travis Kelce). Pitts’ volume should be there. He’s been targeted 6+ times in all but two games this season, but tight ends with 6+ targets against Buffalo have averaged just 7.7 fantasy points against them. Pitts is still a low-end TE1 play based on his volume and role in the offense, but the floor here is lower than usual.  

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): Jordan has carved out a nice chunk of the Texans passing game for himself in recent weeks despite serving as the team’s TE2 behind Pharaoh Brown. Over his last 4 games, he’s totaled 18 targets, 13 receptions, 112 yards and 2 TDs and been the TE14 over that span. I don’t see this as a week where he exceeds that rank. The 49ers have allowed the 6^th-fewest TE points per game. They’ve allowed just 3 tight ends to exceed 40 receiving yards against them all year and haven’t allowed a tight end touchdown since week 10. Jordan is a TD dart throw that I’d bet against scoring a TD this week.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Bates has functioned as Washington’s starting tight end for about a month now, and he faces off with the worst TE defense in the NFL this week, so he’s worth at least some consideration as a desperation streamer. I’d still look elsewhere this week if you’re digging this deep. Last week was the first time in the 3 games since Ricky Seals-Jones returned from IR that Bates out-targeted RSJ, and neither player had a target until the second half of that game when Washington trailed by 5+ touchdowns. There’s a risk that RSJ plays more this week if there’s less garbage time, and that pushes an already shaky streamer to an unusable range for me. Bates is also too rich for my blood in DFS showdown contests ($4,600 on DraftKings).

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 17: @NE): The Pats remain a nightmare matchup for most rookie QBs. Since Bill Belichick took over as New England’s head coach in 2000, the Pats have held 49% of the rookie QBs they’ve faced below 10 fantasy points (17 out of 35). Lawrence has accounted for just 1 total touchdown in his last 8 games, and the Jaguars have an implied point total of just 12.5 points this week. You could take a chance on T-Law as a QB2 on the sole basis that he’s due for a good game, but nothing about this matchup or Lawrence’s recent performance points to a solid game for the rookie.

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. NYG): If you missed the update, the Bears announced Friday that Andy Dalton will start in week 17 with Fields still battling through an injury. I’d be surprised if Fields is active.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. NYG): The Giants are bad enough that the Bears could actually pull off a convincing win this week and allow Herbert to get some extended run late in the game, but you can’t count on that in championship week. Khalil has handled 5 or fewer touches in all 7 games since David Montgomery returned from IR.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Felton filled in a lot at slot WR in week 15 with Jarvis Landry out with Covid, but he was back down to just 4 snaps on Sunday with Landry back. He’s not start-able.

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 17: @GB): The new NFL Covid protocols announced this week made it easier for Dalvin Cook to return for this game, so Cook and Alexander Mattison should handle the bulk of the backfield work in this one. Nwangwu will be back to handling just special teams.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 17: @Dal.): Moore missed last week with an ankle injury, but the same things I wrote about him last week still apply. He hasn’t topped 50 scrimmage yards in his last 9 games, and Dallas ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA. If there’s one glimmer of hope for Moore this week, it’s that the Cowboys allow the 3^rd-most yards after catch, but you can’t count on a useful game from Rondale if he’s active given what we’ve gotten from him this year.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 17: vs. Det.): With Tyler Lockett back in action last week, Eskridge was back down to playing just 20 offensive snaps. He still saw 3 targets and one rushing attempt on those limited snaps, but I wouldn’t bet on a breakout game here against a defense that allows the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. The Seahawks have a great chance to play from ahead for once and lean on the run game as 7-point favorites.

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Mia.): The Titans are battling some Covid issues this week with Julio Jones and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine expected to miss this game on the reserve list, but don’t count on that resulting in a significant opportunity for Dez. AJ Brown saw a 55% target share in his first game back from IR. I don’t expect that share to be quite as high this week, but AJB should dominate targets again in what is already a low volume passing attack. The WR scraps will be split between Fitzpatrick, Racey McMath, and Chester Rodgers. Even against a Miami defense allowing the 8^th-most WR points per game, none of that trio are worth anything more than a low-cost dart throw in DFS showdown contests. Dez, at $200 on DraftKings, is probably the most cost-effective option, but none are particularly good plays.

WRs Terrace Marshall Jr. & Shi Smith, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): The Panthers’ passing game got even harder to predict last week with Sam Darnold and Cam Newton splitting playing time at QB. Marshall is playing a lot of snaps as the WR3, but he isn’t getting targeted. He has just 2 targets across nearly 80 offensive snaps played in the last 3 games. Smith, on the other hand, was productive last week (3 catches for 86 yards on 4 targets) but played just 15 snaps. Neither is trustworthy in championship week.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Schwartz got in the end zone last week but handled just 3 touches on 11 offensive snaps in the process. He’s the distant WR4 in this offense right now.

WR Tylan Wallace, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. LAR): Wallace saw his first extended action of the season last week with Devin Duvernay sidelined and Sammy Watkins playing just 3 snaps in his return from the Covid list. He was targeted just twice. Duvernay could be out again, but I’d expect Watkins to see his playing time ramped up. Another 2-target game would be a reasonable expectation for Wallace this week.

WR Ben Skowronek, LAR (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Skowronek followed his best game of the season by playing just 4 offensive snaps last weekend. The return of Tyler Higbee seems to have drastically cut into his playing time. He’s off the fantasy radar this week.  

WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Don’t let a few targets and big play by Dyami last week fool you. These guys aren’t worth consideration. They played a combined 20 snaps last week, and the Eagles allow the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game. Elijah Moore is the only receiver to score 10+ points against Philly in their last 6 games.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 17: @Chi.): Toney returned last week to NINE targets against the Eagles, but he’s suffered another injury and been ruled out for week 17. He just can’t stay on the field.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): Tremble hasn’t topped 4 targets or 35 receiving yards in any game this season, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 5. The Saints allow the 9^th-fewest TE points per game. Tremble isn’t a streaming option. (Update: Tremble was added to the Covid list on Friday.)

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): You could make a case that Patterson belongs in the borderline options this week with Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic both sidelined and Philly allowing the 14^th-most RB points per game, but he won’t have the job entirely to himself. Jonathan Williams and Wendell Smallwood will both mix-in a bit, and Patterson hasn’t been utilized much in the passing game, which is where Philly is most vulnerable to backs. The Eagles have allowed the 2^nd-most RB receptions per game. Patterson should still handle 10-15 touches in this one, which puts him on the flex radar in deeper leagues and makes him a value in DFS contests at his current price, but I wouldn’t view him as one of the top RB streamers of the week.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 17: @Was.): Miles Sanders’ injury alone doesn’t make Gainwell a usable player this week, but that changes if Jordan Howard is out as well. Howard is going to be a game-time call. If he’s out, that leaves just Boston Scott and Gainwell to handle the backfield work against a middling run defense. The Eagles have had at least two backs handle 10+ touches in every game since week 8, and I don’t expect that to change here. If Howard sits, Gainwell becomes an intriguing DFS tournament option and an upside flex play in deeper leagues.

TE Tre’ McKitty, LAC (Wk. 17: vs. Den.): You’d have to be digging pretty deep in a DFS contest to be looking at McKitty, but the Chargers are down their top 2 tight ends this week with Jared Cook added to the Covid list late in the week. Stephen Anderson will likely function as the starting tight end, but the TE2 in this offense typically sees a 35%+ snap share. Denver doesn’t give up a ton of production to tight ends (allow the 4th-fewest points per game to the position), but you could do worse than McKitty if you’re looking for a bargain basement option in a showdown contest this week. He costs just $400 in the showdown slate on DraftKings.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to championship victory in your leagues. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. I know this is championship week, but I’ll be back next week with a quick look at week 18 as well for you DFS players and those with week 18 championships. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.