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Jason & Dave go live from the studio to discuss injuries, trends, matchups, and more as we move into Week 5 of the 2019 fantasy season. There is still plenty of time to turn your team around (or lock in a top position for the playoff run), but in a few weeks you may look back at this time as a turning point. Do your research, make good decisions, and stay on top of the waiver wire!

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Listen to the Fantasy Finish Line, 10/2/2019: Week 5 Preview: Moving right along..

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For more in-depth analysis and discussion of these injury scenarios, tune in to the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Week 5 Preview: Moving right along..

QUARTERBACKS

Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) – Yes, I’m calling him Mitchell. It’s the least I can do for a guy that is being outplayed by his backup Chase Daniel and is clearly not living up to expectations so far in 2019. The injury was to the left (non-throwing) shoulder and happened early in the game against the Vikings in Week 4. He was stretched out trying to recover a fumble with his left arm in front of him as a player from the opposing team landed on top of him with all their weight. The resulting injury to labrum was confirmed by an MRI and shouldn’t cause Trubisky to miss much more time but may force him to wear a shoulder brace for the rest of this season. Adam Schefter suggests that we’ll see Trubisky in Week 7, following the Bears’ week 6 bye. So far this year, Trubisky has thrown 3 TDs, all in the same game and all to Taylor Gabriel. He’s had 2 interceptions in that same time period. Trubisky provides an athletic element that Chase Daniel does not have, but he is performing at a very low level this year. Based on Daniel’s ability to run the Bears’ offense, Neither Trubisky’s absence nor his return should greatly affect the performance of skill-position players over the next few weeks.

Josh Allen (concussion) – The helmet-to-helmet hit that knocked Allen out of the game against the Patriots looked rough. Going up against the Titans on Sunday, Allen should have enough time to get healthy for the game, but it’s a situation to monitor. Otherwise, it’s Matt Barkley time against Tennessee and that’s not good for anyone in Buffalo.

Gardner Minshew (knee) – Minshew was limited in practice (Wednesday) with a knee injury but there’s currently no reason to think that will affect him suiting up against the Panthers on Sunday. Minshew mania is still alive and kicking.

RUNNING BACKS

Jamaal Williams (concussion) – Williams was hit violently last Thursday and taken off the field on a spine board. He did not practice today (Wednesday) and it’s likely that Aaron Jones will get the lion’s share of work whether or not Williams is able to practice later this week. It’s nice that he’ll get some extra time to go through the concussion protocol since he was injured on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, but there aren’t any other RBs on the depth chart currently that are worth discussion.

Marlon Mack (ankle) – Mack had an ankle injury in Week 4 but was able to return to the game for snaps still after originally coming off the field. After the game he said that he would play in Week 5 vs. Kansas City, but newsflash: it’s not up to Mack. He did not practice today (Wednesday), so he’ll need to practice sometime later this week in order to suit up. Jordan Wilkins (3% owned) has been more than serviceable in short yardage situations in the past (averaging 5.6 YPC in 2018), and Nyheim Hines (20% owned) has proven that he can be a PPR asset as long as he is out there for enough snaps (63 receptions for 425 yards on 81 targets last year). Especially going up against Kansas City, there could be fantasy value available on the wire here for teams with injury problems or bye-week issues if Mack can’t get healthy.

Tevin Coleman (ankle) – Coleman (70% owned) has been trucking around in a walking boot for a few weeks now, but it appears that he’ll practice this week and so he may suit up as early as Week 5 against the Browns on Monday Night Football. A high-ankle sprain carries a usual timetable of 2-6 weeks depending on severity, so this is all within the realm of possibility. During his absence, we’ve seen all of the 49ers running backs (Matt Brieda (82% owned), Raheem Mostert (29% owned), Jeff Wilson (6% owned)) putting up yards and touchdowns, but it’s likely that some clarity will return to the backfield situation with both Coleman and Breida healthy.  

WIDE RECEIVERS

Davante Adams (toe) – 10 passes for 180 yards, what a spectacular night for Adams against the Eagles. He did, however, injure his right big toe quite severely by getting it caught in the turf. Turf toe has several grades of severity and according to the reports that I’ve read from experts in the medical field as well as beat reporters close to the team, we’re looking at an absence of 2-4 weeks. That may put Adams back in play in Week 8 or 9 if recovery goes well. In the meantime, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (70% owned) and Geronimo Allison (32% owned) will certainly see more snaps, but neither is particularly exciting. Way under-the-radar is Jake Kumerow (0% owned), who just started practicing in full after an injury earlier this season, has only logged 9 receptions in the NFL, but has shown a lot of chemistry with Rodgers and is technically Adams’ direct backup. Hey, if you want to throw caution to the wind...

Christian Kirk (ankle) – A right ankle sprain has sidelined Kirk which is not great news for fantasy owners after enjoying a considerable number of targets consistently from QB Kyler Murray. As Kirk will likely miss at least 1-2 weeks for a low-grade ankle sprain and Damiere Byrd (hamstring) is also not likely to suit up against the Bengals, it looks like Larry Fitzgerald and Keesean Johnson (1% owned) will see their targets increase so both will be viable fantasy players this week along with David Johnson, of course. Look out for Andy Isabella (1% owned) who has been pushed down the depth chart so far this year but has the tools and talent to show up as soon as he becomes a major part of the offense. Could be soon.

Jarvis Landry (concussion) – Landry had his biggest day ever last week but went out with a concussion in the second half. Keep watch to see if he’ll be able to play or not, the Browns play on Monday Night Football and they could certainly use another sure-handed receiver.

Kenny Stills (hamstring) – Stills was becoming one of Watson’s favorite targets after being traded to the Texans from Miami earlier this year. Soft tissue injuries like these will sometimes take a while to heal, and although he did eclipse Keke Coutee (17% owned) on the depth chart while Coutee was battling injury, the reverse may happen now as Coutee is healthy. Don’t sleep on a guy that was a standout for some of last year and has shown great chemistry with Deshaun Watson. Going up against the Falcons, Coutee could have 100+ yards if Stills sits this one out.

TIGHT ENDS

T.J. Hockenson (concussion) – Hockenson looked great last week as he pulled in a TD and 27 yards early in the game against the Chiefs, but he later fell hard on his head and shoulder after attempting to leap over an opponent and suffered a concussion. The latest news from Adam Schefter is that he won’t be put on the IR, but there’s no estimate on his return to the practice field. I’d count him out, possibly for a few weeks. We’ll know more after the Lions’ bye week.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

3 More Touchdowns

Todd Gurley continues to set the league on fire, scoring another three touchdowns in San Francisco on Sunday. This time around, Gurley had a season low 19 touches en route to a paltry 26.6 points. Gurley's touchdown pace, now 14 in just 7 games, would put him at a league record 32 for the season, if he can keep it up. Realistically, LaDanian Tomlinson's single season record of 31 touchdowns is probably safe. Gurley is unlikely to play all 16 games if his team keeps winning - they currently have a 1.5 game lead for the #1 seed, and an incredible 4 game lead in their division already. To break Tomlinson's record, Gurley would likely need to increase his TD production. As someone who drafted Gurley #1 overall, I'm all for it. I just hope that Gurley doesn't sit out for week 16, as well as 17. That would truly be a fantasy football tragedy.

222 Consecutive Extra Points

Justin Tucker, the most accurate kicker in NFL history, finally missed an extra point. Tucker had converted his previous 222 attempts, over 102 games going back to the start of the 2012 season. Tucker's miss kept his team from tying the game at the end of the 4th quarter and the Saints beat the Ravens 24-23. The Ravens, Bengals and Browns losses combined to grant the Steelers first place in the AFC North, all during their bye week. Over in England, Marcus Mariota broke a career long streak of his own. Mariota threw his first interception in the red zone in his career. A career that has spanned 4 years now in 48 games, the streak was preceded by 41 passing TDs on 161 passing attempts with a 104.1 QB rating in the red zone. Like Tucker, Mariota also contributed to his team losing the game at the end of regulation. He's not the root cause, however - I put the blame on Coach Vrabel and the lack of Derrick Henry, as well as the ill-advised decision to desperately go for 2 when your team is winning on both sides of the ball.

35 Points per Game

Mitchell Trubisky leads the league in points per game over the last 4 games with 27.96 PPG. That's better than Gurley, Mahomes... everyone. I'll let that sink in for a moment. Bringing down that average is his performance in week 3 where he put up only 6.60 points. In the last 3 weeks, Trubisky is averaging 35 points per game. He's still only on a roster in 53% of Yahoo leagues, but will likely be a big pickup this week. Even if the Bears are losing (especially, really), they will be throwing the ball a lot. Trubisky has fewer than 31 pass attempts just once this season and he scored 43.46 points on the strength of 6 passing TDs in that outing. My point is that he's on hell of a tear and he's the perfect option for bye weeks coming up, because the Bears already were off during week 5.

7 games of 100 yards in a row

I do love keeping track of big streaks in the NFL. Earlier, we looked at some career long streaks that have ended, so let's go positive here. Adam Thielen now has 100 yards in each of the first 7 games this season and he's now one game short of tying Calvin Johnson's all time record of 8 games. Thielen is leading the league in receptions with 67, currently a 10 catch lead over 2nd place. He also leads in receiving yards with 822, though Julio Jones will go into tonight's game with 708 yards and I really could use a good performance, Julio. But I digress, The other streak is of course, Patrick Mahomes, who notched his 6th straight 300 yard game. He's up over 2200 passing yards on the season and on pace to break the 5000 yard mark. Mahomes is not technically a rookie, but that would smash Andrew Luck's rookie record of 4374 yards.

4 OT Games in 7 Weeks

Humor me for a moment while I examine the fantasy football relevance of the Cleveland Browns, who have now basically played a league leading 7.5 games on the season. This hasn't quite helped out the 2-4-1 Browns, but at least there's some bright spots on the team, unlike last year. Baker Mayfield has made the Browns look like a team again, but he's not very productive in fantasy football yet, averaging just over 17 points per game when he starts. A bright spot has been TE David Njoku, who is one of Mayfield's preferred targets. He has at least 50 receiving yards in the last 4 games, and a TD in each of the last two. He's now the TE9 on the season and can be started on a weekly basis. Finally, Nick Chubb seems like he'll settle into Carlos Hyde's empty spot just fine. Chubb had 80 yards and a TD on Sunday and had all but 5 of the team's rushing attempts. Chubb should be a decent RB2/Flex start for most of the season, with a lot of upside.

Trends are a topic that I like to get into once the football season has had enough time to let them develop properly. Looking back on the past few weeks can tell us a lot about the future fantasy production of players, in some cases. I've selected 2 players each from QB/RB/WR positions to take a look at what direction I think they are headed in for the last half of the season. Those players trending up can also be seen as good targets to try and acquire before the trade deadline in your league(s). Percentage owned is taken from Yahoo as of 10/24/18.

QB

Russell Wilson (92% owned, #22 QB, 104.52 fantasy pts total)

Week 4 @ARI (19/26, 172 yds, 0 TD, 8.98 pts)

Week 5 LAR (13/21, 198 yds, 3 TDs, 19.92 pts)

Week 6 @OAK (17/23, 222 yds, 3 TDs, 21.88 pts)

• A rough start for the former QB1 in fantasy, but just rested through a bye week and now with Doug Baldwin healthy and performing (6/8, 91 yds in Week 6), Tyler Lockett locked in as the WR2, and a 3-headed rushing attack that is starting to come together, we could see Wilson come back to life in the 2^nd half of the season. In Week 8 he goes up against a Detroit passing defense that has allowed 8 TDs over the past 3 games. Russell Wilson should continue to pick up speed over the next few weeks and come close to his initial value as a top QB to own and start in fantasy.

Mitchell Trubisky (66% owned, #8 QB, 142.26 fantasy pts total)

Week 4 TB (19/26, 354 yds, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 43.46 pts)

Week 6 @MIA (22/31, 316 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 28.34 pts)

Week 7 NE (26/50, 333 yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 33.42 pts)

• Trubisky has been an exceptional fantasy QB over the last 3 games that he has played, no question about it. The real question is whether or not these point totals are sustainable and if we should be worried about the rising trend of interceptions juxtaposed with the falling TDs. Both TB (#1) and NE (#7) are in the top 10 worst passing defenses in the league. He faces the Jets in Week 8, a middle of the road passing defense. I'm concerned about the trend above of less TDs and more INTs, but Trubisky is locked-in as a starting QB now in fantasy until he proves otherwise. He is definitely a SELL for me though, if you have another good option it may be worth it to find a trade partner before he comes back down to Earth.

RB

David Johnson (100% owned, #11 RB, 82.10 fantasy pts total)

Week 5 @SF (18/55 rush/yds, 2 TDs, 2/16 rec/yds, 19.10 pts)

Week 6 @MIN (18/54 rush/yds, 1 TD, 2/15 rec/yds, 10.90 pts)

Week 7 DEN (14/39 rush/yds, 3/31 rec/yds, 7.00 pts)

• At first glance, #11 RB isn’t so bad, but it is for David Johnson. Drafted top 3 for the past few years, Johnson enjoyed much success with former coach Bruce Arians calling the shots in Arizona. Johnson also had a seasoned QB under center. He may be able to break the top 10 and start performing at a high level again with the firing of OC Mike McCoy and switch to one of Arians’ pupils, Byron Leftwich, taking over offensive play calling duties. David Johnson faces a porous opponent Week 8 in the 49ers, who are currently the 7^th worst rushing defense, allowing just under 100 yards and 1 TD per game on average. Things should turn around immediately for Johnson and get even better after the Cardinals' bye week. This is likely the lowest that David Johnson's value will be for the next few years.

Latavius Murray (79% owned, #24 RB, 60.70 fantasy pts total)

Week 5 @PHI (11/42 rush/yds, 2/14 rec/yds, 5.6 pts)

Week 6 ARI (24/155 rush/yds, 1 TD, 1/3 rec/yds, 21.80 pts)

Week 7 @NYJ (15/69 rush/yds, 2 TDs, 2/14 rec/yds, 20.30 pts)

• The latest news on Dalvin Cook is that he will be out through the Vikings’ Week 10 bye. That means Murray has at least two more weeks to lead the backfield, and he has been impressing with good consistency over the past couple of games. Week 8’s opponent, the New Orleans Saints, have been great against the run (no one has gone over 80 yards against them) but Murray will still have some opportunities at the goal-line to collect fantasy points and then faces up against a generous Lions’ rushing defense. With bye weeks and injuries hitting now over the middle of the season, Murray is an excellent play until Cook gets healthy enough to return.

WR

Emmanuel Sanders (96% owned, #3 WR, 94.72 fantasy pts total)

Week 5 @NYJ (9/72 rec/yds, 7.20 pts)

Week 6 LAR (7/115 rec/yds, 1 TD, 17.50 pts)

Week 7 @ARI (6/102 rec/yds, 1 TD, 21.32 pts)

• Sanders was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week in Week 7, and he has clearly been the best WR on the Broncos this season. In fact, he is sitting right at #3 among all WRs in fantasy points so far in standard leagues. There was some concern over his ankle injury late in the game against the Cardinals, but he has since been removed from the injury report and should be good to go against the Chiefs in Week 8 who are giving up a ton of yards to opposing receivers. Sanders should continue to feast!

Jordy Nelson (71% owned, #37 WR, 52.30 fantasy pts total)

Week 4 CLE (5/48 rec/yds, 1 TD, 12.80 pts)

Week 5 @LAC (4/43 rec/yds, 1 TD, 10.30 pts)

Week 6 SEA (2/6 rec/yds, 0.60 pts)

• Nelson has had a big game this season (Week 3: 6/173 rec/yds) and scored 3 TDs so far, but his role has been chaotic at best on the Raiders – certainly an accurate reflection of the state of the team in general. With former WR1 Amari Cooper having been traded to the Cowboys, Jordy Nelson should immediately take over that position and his share of targets should increase. In weeks 3 (23.3 pts) and 4 (12.8 pts) Nelson had 8 targets each and his highest fantasy totals of the season. We can use this as a measuring stick to determine that his fantasy production going forward should be between 10 and 20 points per game in a standard league Grab him off the wire or try and buy him low if possible.