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12/09/14, Week 15 - In Which Jonas Gray Has Disappeared

Welcome to another installment of the drinkfive Podcast. We’re knee deep in fantasy football playoffs, which is just fine with us! We broke down some of the fun stuff from week 14 before diving into our weekly segment, the trends. As always, we started it by drinking for the trends that we didn’t predict correctly last week. We also looked more into the trends themselves and what we should really be getting out of them.

For Week 15, we said that Matt Ryan will continue his upward trend and reach or exceed his line of 21 points against the Steelers. We looked a Demaryius Thomas and the Broncos and set his line at 14. Dave said he’d stick with the trend and go under, I said he’d break it and go over 14. Malcolm Floyd has been talked about a bunch lately and is trending up. Dave said he’d continue that and score over 8.5, I said he’d struggle and go under. Joquie Bell’s line was set at only 12 points and both of us went over for his matchup this week against the Vikings. Shane Vereen has been struggling and we both said that he would stay under 8 points against the Dolphins. Finally, we looked at Denard Robinson’s downward trend. This is now irrelevant as he’s on the IR. Drink five anyways!

To wrap up the show, we discussed waiver pickups for this week. Coming in the following weeks, we will gather all of the trend data, finish looking at where the top 10 ADP/finishing RB’s and WR’s are and have more guests!

Make sure to join us next week, live at 9pm CST on blogtalk radio (blogtalkradio.com/drinkfive). Feel free to send us your questions and we'll answer them on the podcast! Ask us on our Facebook page, follow us on twitter (@drinkfive), or send us an e-mail to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. You can also grab the podcast on iTunes.

At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.

Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show:

Tim Wright: Wk 9 vs DEN – 0.00 pts, Wk 11 @ IND – 6.20 pts, Wk 12 vs DET – 15.60 pts, Wk 13 @ GB – 1.20 pts

Dave has a rather specific prediction that says he will score between 6.1 and 8.0, I said under 6.1. Wright had just one target in an exciting game, netting him just 12 yards and no touchdowns. Wright is only played for his TD scoring (6 on the season) and really is only a last minute option. Dave drinks five for this one

Well, not so fast, just yet. Dave doubled down on this bet (double or nothing) for over 6.1 points for Wright. Well, Dave, I hope your beer is full, because Wright had 0.00 points on 2 targets. Drink five, then do it again!

Joe Flacco: Wk 10 vs TEN - 10.56 pts, Wk 12 @ NO - 13.92 pts, Wk 13 vs SD - 23.30 pts

Flacco hasn't been lighting up the world since his 5 TD game back in week 6, but his 23+ points against SD is the third time he's gone over 20 points this season. Flacco will go to Miami for Week 14, a team that is giving up the 2nd fewest points to opposing QB's. Flacco is clearly in the QB2 conversation, but does he need to be a sit this week? We will set the line at 14 points.

Both of us went under the line of 14 points for Flacco, and we’ll drink for this one. Flacco had an excellent fantasy day, throwing for 2 TD’s and rushing one in, he had his third best fantasy day of the season, putting up 25.36 points against the slipping Dolphins.

Mike Evans: Wk 11 vs ATL – 32.90 pts, Wk 12 @ CHI – 10.70 pts, Wk 13 vs CIN – 4.90 pts

Evans is a member of this year’s stellar WR rookie crop and was on his way to rookie of the year consideration for a while there. He scored 86.5 points in a 4 week stretch (9-12) and had 6 TD’s in that time. Last week he struggled, catching only 4 of 9 targets for 49 yards against the Bengals. This week it gets even harder, playing the Lions in Detroit. We’ll set Evans’s line at 11 points – can McCown get him the ball enough?

We agreed on this one as well, both of us going under 11 points for Evans. While he did struggle, catching on 4 of 11 targets, he managed to find the end zone twice, so his 4 for 45 and 2 TD line (16.50 points) is plenty to make us both drink this week.

DeSean Jackson: Wk 11 vs TB – 3.70 pts, Wk 12 @ SF – 3.90 pts, Wk 13 @ IND – 14.40 pts

Jackson is the victim of one of the more volatile QB situations in the league. The Redskins have had 3 starting QB’s this season, though it does appear that they will stick with Colt McCoy for the remainder of the season. This is good news for Jackson as he has 14 points per game when McCoy starts and he’s under 10 per game on average when he does not. This week, Jackson faces the Rams whom are giving up the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing WR’s. Can Jackson keep his trend going upward? We will set the line for him at 12 points.

We split on this line, Dave going under 12 and me going over. This one, however, doesn’t really count as DeSean Jackson wound up sitting out the game on Sunday against the Rams. Jackson’s status for Week 15 is still up in the air, so make sure you’re checking the news later in the week on him.

Jeremy Hill: Wk 11 @ NO - 16.50 pts, Wk 12 @ HOU - 15.60 pts, Wk 13 @ TB - 5.20 pts

Side note before we start, the Bengals just had 3 road games and won all 3 of them, a first in franchise history. Hill has been a big part of two of those wins, racking up over 30 points in the first two games, but only carrying the ball 13 times for 40 yards last week (3.1 ypc). That's quite disappointing, compared to the 4.9 ypc he had going into the game. Hill criticized the play calling, his OC promptly called him out, saying he needs to break more tackles and block better. Perhaps the fire has been lit under Hill's ass and he has a home game against the Steelers this Sunday to show he deserves time on the field instead of Giovani Bernard. We'll set the line for Hill at 10 this week, due to the Steelers only giving up 16 to opposing RB's and Gio getting back into the swing of things.

Hill was the choice in the Bengals backfield on Sunday, but the game got away from them once the fourth quarter came around. Hill ended the game with 6.7 points (8 for 46, 3 rec for 21) and that’s lower than the line we set at 10 points, which we both went over. Both of us drink, again!

Rashad Jennings: Wk 11 vs SF - 6.70 pts, Wk 12 vs DAL - 12.00 pts, Wk 13 @ JAX 21.40 pts

Jennings returned to the Giants lineup three weeks ago, and has been trending up ever since. His first game was shaky against the 49ers, but since then has been the RB2 you expected him to be. Andre Williams is basically irrelevant for fantasy purposes and all but being a goal line back for the Giants. Jennings will see the bulk of the work going forward, as his 26 carries in Jacksonville can attest. We'll set the line at 12 points for his Week 14 matchup in Tennessee.

I’m sensing a pattern here. Once again, we both went over and once again, we’re both wrong. Jennings had some injury issues crop up this week after we made our predictions, but he did play and finished the game with 2.20 points. Andre Williams started and was just fine against the worst run D in the league. So…We’ll drink our five and make sure to keep an eye on Jennings’s practice sessions this week ahead of his matchup with Washington.

Jason Witten: Wk 10 @ JAX - 9.30 pts, Wk 12 @ NYG - 9.00 pts, Wk 13 vs PHI - 0.80 pts

Tight Ends don't really seem to trend like QB/WR/RB, but let's give it a shot anyway. Witten has been a disappointment all season and while 30 yards and a TD in weeks 10 and 12 may seem acceptable, those are the 2nd and 3rd highest scoring weeks this season. Witten plays the "soft enough for a bear in the woods" Chicago Bears defense, so can we expect 9 points, or is he a definite sit?

Well, if there’s one trend, it’s that we were wrong about trends last week. Witten managed only 2.6 points in a great matchup against the Bears. His struggles to be the least bit relevant this year speak volumes and I think it’s safe to say that we’ve seen the end of the Jason Witten era in Dallas. We’ll drink for going under our predicted line and to Witten’s hall of fame career.

Finally, a bet where one of us was bound to win – because it was against each other. Dave bet that the Steelers would beat the Bengals, and while at the end of the 3^rd it looked like I might pull it out, the fourth quarter belonged entire to Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers. I’ll be providing the beers for tonight’s show, they’ll be good ones!

Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 14 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!

Matt Ryan: Wk 12 vs CLE – 16.52 pts, Wk 13 vs ARI – 21.84 pts, Wk 14 @ GB – 32.30 pts

Matt Ryan finds himself in a nice position of symmetry. He’s currently the 8^th ranked QB in standard Yahoo leagues, and his ADP position was #8 in the preseason. He’s finally playing up to his expected level, but it’s only been a late run that has gotten him there. Ryan started off the season with 3 of 4 games over 20 points, but failed to reach the 20 point mark for the next 7 games. He’s gone over again the last two, so can his streak continue? Two things we look at: Is he your playoff starter the next two weeks (PIT, @NO) and will he score over 21 points in week 15.

Demaryius Thomas: Wk 12 vs MIA – 26.70 pts, Wk 13 @ KC – 12.30 pts, Wk 14 vs BUF – 1.10 pts

Right off the bat, let’s get one thing straight. Demaryius Thomas is a MF’n stud and he belongs in your lineup each week. He is here mostly to illustrate that all of the Denver skill players are on a downward trend, at least those associated with the passing game. Thomas is not, of course, matchup proof, mostly because WR’s are so reliant on their QB. Week 14 saw his season low in targets (5), receptions (2) and yards (11). Thomas had a 7 game streak over 100 yards in the middle of the season and now has only 161 yards in the last 3 games – his 4 td’s over that time really save his fantasy value. The question here is: Will Denver get back on track? Will Demaryius Thomas scoring over 14 points against the Chargers be the indicator that yes, he and his team are back where we expect them?

Malcom Floyd: Wk 12 vs STL – 3.00 pts, Wk 13 @ BAL – 8.50 pts, Wk 14 vs NE – 11.40 pts

It’s tough to pick a weekly receiver in the Chargers offense. It seems that no player is much more likely to go off than another guy, including Antonio Gates and last year’s phenom Keenan Allen. Floyd seemed to be the most recent flavor of the week, and did find the end zone against the Patriots and put up his second most points of the season. The problem here is that Floyd is very TD dependent, only making it into double digits when he finds pay dirt and has only made it over 100 yards receiving once this year. Is this a guy who is trending up that you want to count on the fantasy playoffs, or is this guy fantasy fool’s gold? He faces Denver in week 15 and we’ll set his line at 8.50 points.

Joique Bell: Wk 12 @ NE – 4.60 pts, Wk 13 vs CHI – 22.70 pts, Wk 14 vs TB – 25.30 pts

Bell has really excelled against poor opponents - all but one of his double digits games have come against below .500 teams. Luckily for Bell owners, he continues that through the fantasy playoffs, matching up against Minnesota this week and the Bears in week 16. Bell has seen no meaningful drop in his touches with Reggie Bush coming back, getting 23 touches just last week. With an easy matchup against the Vikings (the Jets ran for 168 yards against them on Sunday), it looks like Bell will continue trending up. We’ll set his line at a generously low 12 points (yahoo’s projection). If you think this line is too low, Bell has only gone over 12 points 4 times this season, so take that as you will.

Shane Vereen: Wk 12 vs DET – 6.00 pts, Wk 13 @ GB – 3.20 pts, Wk 14 @ SD – 3.10 pts

Vereen has all but disappeared in the Patriot’s backfield confusion. First Jonas Gray puts up a 40 spot, then he is essentially replaced by Blount who was basically kicked off the Steelers for pouting. We surmised that this would leave Vereen in a good situation as the Patriots typically love the short passing game, and he excels in that game. I suppose our error then lies with us assuming the Patriots will typically do anything. The ONLY thing you can count on from them is that Gronk will SMASH (either the opponent or his own bones). So, can you count on Vereen at all going forward, or does he belong on the bench barring any injuries to others in the New England backfield? We’ll set his over/under at 8 points against a Dolphins team that is in the middle of the pack when defending RB’s.

Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 15 and we will recap the results next week.

Each week we'll give you some recommended starters that you need to get in your lineup for one reason or another. Usually, it's because of a good matchup, sometimes it's a player that's trending up, and once in a while it's going to be the secret to your fantasy victory!

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan @ OAK: The Atlanta quarterback was not highly touted heading into this season. Week 1 was a strong showing for him with 334 yards and 2 touchdowns. More importantly, he protected the football, something he has struggled with in the past. I like Matt Ryan in week 2 against the Oakland Raiders. Drew Brees just torched the Oakland secondary in week 1. Mohamed Sanu gives Ryan a good second option after Julio Jones. Running Backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will keep the Raiders defense honest too.

Joe Flacco @ CLE: The Ravens win the Cleveland Lottery in week 2. Joe Flacco returned to the field after tearing his ACL last season, and while his knee looks fine his fantasy score left something to be desired. The highlight was his connection with Mike Wallace on a 66 yard touchdown pass. Cleveland did a piss poor job last week of introducing rookie Carson Wentz to the NFL. Wentz threw for 278 and 2 TD’s in his first ever game; I expect Flacco to have his way with the Cleveland defense this Sunday.

Running Backs

Lamar Miller vs. KC: As expected, Lamar Miller was used heavily in week 1 for the Texans. In fact, he was one of only two top 25 running backs to rush for over 100 yards in week 1. Miller saw 28 carries and 4 receptions in week 1. Houston will not move away from that in a week 2 match-up with the Chiefs. Kansas City gave up 146 total rushing yards between Danny Woodhead and Melvin Gordon in week 1.

Spencer Ware @ HOU: Jamaal Charles is still a question mark for week 2 and it’s safe to say the Chiefs have no reason to rush him back. Spencer Ware split time with Charcandrick West in week 1, but Ware was clearly the more utilized back. His 18 touches for 199 total yards makes him a must start this week and every week until Charles returns.

Wide Receiver

Tajae Sharpe @ DET: Marcus Mariota is clearly feeling it with Tajae Sharpe. Sharpe led the team in targets with 11 while bringing in 7 receptions for 76 yards. Tennessee has a favorable match-up in week 2 against a Lions pass defense that looked awful in week 1. Sharpe’s strong route running will offer him plenty of opportunity against this secondary.

Tight End

Dwayne Allen @ DEN: Jack Doyle and Dwayne Allen were both strong options for Andrew Luck in week 1. They finished 1 and 2 amongst tight ends in scoring for week 1. Dwayne Allen saw 2 more targets and 18 more yards, while Jack Doyle’s big boost came with his 2 touchdown performance. I like Allen in week 2 because he is clearly the TE1 on the Colts and a favorite red zone target for Andrew Luck.

Each week we'll give you some recommended starters that you need to get in your lineup for one reason or another. Usually, it's because of a good matchup, sometimes it's a player that's trending up, and once in a while it's going to be the secret to your fantasy victory!

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan @ NO: Included on the list last week, here's a guy who is currently the fantasy points leader at QB in standard leagues and yet is still not owned by 30% of [Yahoo] leagues. If you happen to be in a league where that is the case, I suggest you remedy that quickly! His matchup in week 3 against the Saints (giving up 672 passing yards so far over 2 games) looks pretty advantageous. The Falcons defense is more than suspect, and they'll always keep their opponent in the game - forcing Ryan to keep chucking it.

Ryan Fitzpatrick @ KC: Fitzpatrick is still out of the top 10 (currently #13 in overall fantasy points at the QB position in standard scoring leagues), but he's spreading the football around this year with new additions to the offense like Enunwa and Forte. The Jets know that this could be their last chance to make a playoff run for quite some time and they will be fighting to the bitter end of every matchup this year. Fitzpatrick could end up a good short-term start or may even become your QB1 as long as guys like Bortles and Cousins are underperforming. Owned in 41% of Yahoo leagues currently. (Keep your eye on Marshall's health, though, Fitz's ceiling comes down if Marshall is not on the field).

Running Backs

Isaiah Crowell @MIA: Crowell exploded last week with 133 yards and a touchdown. Granted, most of that was from a specific play, but his performance so far this year has been raising more than a few eyebrows out there, and he'll be going up against a Dolphins rushing defense that is giving up the 2nd most yards per game. A must start until he proves otherwise!

Mark Ingram vs. ATL: Ingram has just not had the opportunities on offense yet this season - with only 21 carries over 2 games, the Saints need to commit a little more to the running game. That has been mentioned in recent press conferences, etc and an excellent matchup against the Falcons on Monday could be the catalyst for a top-10 fantasy performance for Ingram.

Wide Receiver

Mike Wallace @JAX: Wallace finally has a QB with some arm strength that is willing to send a few far downfield - that's all he needs to be a productive fantasy receiver. He's actually propelled himself to be the #6 fantasy WR in standard scoring leagues (as of Monday evening). Going up against the Jaguars shouldn't prove a much more difficult situation for Wallace to rack up his customary 3 or 4 receptions. Cross your fingers for the touchdown that makes him a commodity from week-to-week.

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph @ CAR: I would not normally recommend fantasy plays against a stout Panthers defense, but Kyle Rudolph has proved so far this season to be one of the highest targeted Vikings' pass-catchers (8 targets in both week 1 and week 2) and is currently situated as the #10 TE thus far in the season. With an upgrade to QB in Sam Bradford, I think we'll see more of Rudolph - especially as a red zone threat.