Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s semifinal week, so hopefully your fantasy squad is still alive and kicking, and hopefully you didn’t get hit too hard by injuries last week. There were a number of players who saw their season cut short last weekend. Alshon Jeffery, Rashaad Penny, Mike Evans, Derrius Guice and Calvin Ridley were just some of the casualties that could have you looking for replacements this week. There are a few rookies who might be able to help you out with that this week. Let’s take a look at which rookies are in line for big things this week. Keep in mind that all players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I’d play them this week…
Rookies to Start:
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 15: vs. Jax.): Jacobs missed last week with a cracked bone in his shoulder, but he had been playing through it pretty well for weeks before sitting in week 14, and all indications are that he will play this week. The Jaguars have gone in the tank in the last few weeks and have been one of the worst run defenses in the league. They rank 31st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and allow the 4th-most RB PPR points per game. They’ve allowed five 100-yard rushers in their last 5 games and 10 running back scores in those games. Jacobs is a strong RB2 play this week if all systems are go with his shoulder.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): Arizona’s offense has looked a bit different in recent weeks compared to the early part of the season. They’ve moved away from the 4-wide receiver base sets they were using early in the year and started using the tight end position and 2-back sets more often. It’s hurt Murray’s passing yardage output but helped him find the end zone more frequently. In the first 8 games of the year, Murray totaled just 7 TD passes and averaged just under 250 yards per game. In the last 5, he’s found the end zone 9 times but averaged 215 yards per game. I’d look for him to be around 200 yards in this one, but if you play him, you’re hoping for multiple touchdowns and some rushing production for him to return value. For their part, the Browns have allowed the 8th-most QB rushing yards per game and did let Ryan Fitzpatrick go for 45 and a score on the ground a couple weeks ago. Murray is best treated as a top-flight QB2 option with upside for more this week.
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 15: @GB): Monty has proven to be difficult to trust on a weekly basis, but the matchup here is a good one. Green Bay has been shredded on the ground for much of the season. They rank 26th in run defense DVOA and allow the 6th-most RB points per game. The Bears’ offense has been playing better lately and Montgomery has had at least 15 touches in 7 straight games. I’d expect him to be in the 15-20 touch range in this one, and that puts him on the RB2 radar against such a burnable defense. Montgomery did get a questionable tag this week, so make sure he plays before you start him, but the upside is there.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 15: @Pit.): Singletary faces a tough matchup this week, but his usage keeps him in the flex conversation. The Steelers rank 4th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5th-fewest RB points per game, but the biggest reason they’ve been so good against the position is their ability to keep backs out of the end zone. They haven’t allowed a running back rushing score since week 5 and have given up just 6 RB scores all year. Singletary is going to be heavily involved and should be a nice play in PPR leagues. The Steelers are favored in this one, and Singletary has had at least 6 targets in the passing game in all 3 of the Bills’ losses this year. I’d expect nice passing game usage again.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 15: @Was.): Sanders had a forgettable performance on Monday night, showing a lack of vision that eventually had him ceding work to Boston Scott. Scott impressed enough in his opportunities that I’d expect him to steal more work from Sanders going forward. Washington is not a challenging match-up for running backs, allowing the 10th-most PPR points per game and ranking 24th in run defense DVOA, so even if Sanders doesn’t get a full workload he may still return usable value. There’s risk here, but Sanders is still worth consideration for a flex spot.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Brown’s match-up looked like a smash spot on paper, and he made good on it in a big way. He gets another plus matchup this week, but not quite as juicy as the one with Oakland. The Texans rank 27th in pass defense DVOA but aren’t as giving to wide receivers as that number would imply. They allow the 15th-most WR points per game. Brown’s production has come from big plays, and the Texans allow the 9th-most passes of 20+ and 40+ yards. The last 2 games are the first times all year that Brown has out-snapped Corey Davis. He’s unquestionably the WR1 in Nashville now, and his connection with Tannehill has been solid. There is still a bit of a low floor with Brown, but we’ve also seen the ceiling and he’s got 80+ yards in 3 of the last 5 games. Brown is a volatile WR3 this week.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): Samuel has been on fire over the last month. He’s scored at least 13 PPR points in 5 straight games after reaching that mark just twice in his first 7 games of the season. This week the 49ers face off with Atlanta, who allows the 12th-most WR points per game and ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA. They also just lost both of their starting corners to injury last week. This looks like a smash spot for Deebo (and Emmanuel Sanders), but the concern is that it gets out of hand early and the Niners lean on the run. San Francisco is favored by 11 points, and Deebo has fewer than 5 targets in 2 of the last 3 games. I do like his chances at a strong game this week but be aware that there is some risk.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 15: @Car.): Metcalf has become the most consistent part of the Seahawks’ passing attack in recent weeks. He has at least 6 catches and 70 yards in 4 of his last 5 games even as the overall passing volume for the team has been down. Seattle hasn’t thrown for 250 yards in a game since November 3rd. Carolina is the worst run defense in the league, so there should be a lot of Chris Carson and limited pass volume again. Metcalf is still in play as a WR3 this week. Despite their struggles against running backs, the Panthers have also managed to allow the 7th-most WR points per game. The limited volume puts a little damper on Metcalf’s ceiling, but he’s shown a solid floor that makes him a decent option this week.
WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): Slayton showed out on Monday night, proving that his production wasn’t just tied to Daniel Jones. This week he gets to face the Dolphins, who allow 4th-most WR points per game and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, so there is plenty of upside. The potential return of Evan Engram could pull some targets away from him, but Slayton is in the WR3 discussion regardless of who suits up for the Giants. I would move him to the ‘Rookies to Start’ section if Engram sits again.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Brown has been a volatile weekly fantasy option this year. He’s topped 20 PPR points twice and topped 15 four times. He’s also finished below 7 points 5 times. The Jets are a solid run defense, and not so solid against the pass. They’ve allowed the 10th-most WR points per game and rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA. I’d expect the Ravens to try and get Brown going this week after catching 3 passes for negative 2 yards last week, but they might not be throwing much in the second half. He’ll have to do his damage early. Brown is a boom-or-bust WR3 option this week.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 15: @KC): Fant is questionable for this week after suffering an injury last weekend, but if he plays, he’s got a nice opportunity at a strong game. The Chiefs allow the 5th-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. Denver is likely to be playing from behind and throwing and Fant has scored 10+ PPR points in 3 of the last 5 games (20+ in 2 of them). I wouldn’t be considering him over an elite option at the position, but he’s not too far behind that group this week if it sounds like he’s close to 100%.
Rookies to Sit:
QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 15: vs. TB): I’d be tempted to consider Blough as a deep sleeper this week if he hadn’t lost Marvin Jones for the year last Sunday. Tampa is the best run defense in the league in terms of DVOA, but they are just 19th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5th-most QB points per game. We’ve seen that Blough has a willingness to push the ball down the field, and the Bucs have been burnable. He’s still got Kenny Golladay, but the limited weapons and limited track record make Blough impossible to trust with your season on the line.
QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 15: @KC): Lock has been a big surprise in his first two starts, but I think the hot streak ends this week. Kansas City has been playing at a high level lately. They rank 6th in pass defense DVOA, and in the last 3 games they’ve allowed just 3 passing scores and have 7 interceptions. Lock has fared well through two games, but they were against below average pass defenses. The Chiefs are not that despite allowing the 12th-most QB points per game for the year. Lock may be able to produce in garbage time if Kansas City gets out in front, but I wouldn’t be inclined to start him outside of deeper 2-QB leagues.
QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Hodges should finally have a full complement of weapons to work with as JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner are both expected back, but Buffalo is one of the toughest QB defenses in the league. The Bills allow the 3rd-fewest QB points per game and rank 5th in pass defense DVOA. Hodges failed to capitalize on a great match-up last week, finishing as just the QB23 due to limited passing volume. I wouldn’t want to roll him out there expecting more this week in a bad match-up.
QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Phi.): Do you really want to risk your season on a player who has thrown for less than 200 yards in 4 of 5 starts and thrown just 3 touchdowns all year? I didn’t think so.
RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 15: vs. Den.): Thompson finally saw some real playing time last week, but still played fewer snaps than both LeSean McCoy and a fresh off the street Spencer Ware and he didn’t touch the ball until the Chiefs were up two scores. It’s entirely possible the Chiefs get out in front again this week. They’re 9 and a half point favorites, but they also are likely to have Damien Williams back. The best-case scenario for Thompson is that he gets some late run with the Chiefs out in front, but Denver allows the 12th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing backs. You could talk yourself into trying him as a cheap DFS tournament option, but not much more.
RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Don’t be tempted to try Johnson with Bo Scarbrough likely to miss this week. The upside just isn’t there. He’s still going to be splitting work with JD McKissic, and the Bucs allow the 3rd-fewest RB points per game in the league and rank 1st in run defense DVOA. Look elsewhere.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): Dalvin Cook clearly looked healthy enough last week against Detroit, which means Mattison will continue playing second fiddle. He’s been his most productive in blowout wins, and the Chargers just don’t get blown out. They haven’t lost by more than 7 points all year. LA does struggle to stop the run. They rank 23rd in run defense DVOA and allow 13th-most RB points per game. Mattison will get some touches, but this probably isn’t the best week to run him out there. He’s averaged 49.5 rushing yards per game in the 7 games Minnesota won by 2+ scores, and 16.4 in the 7 games they didn’t.
RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Snell’s run as the Steelers’ lead back is likely to come to an end this week. James Conner is likely to return Sunday night, and we’ve seen Snell’s efficiency and fantasy production drop over the last 3 games anyway. The Bills are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air (they rank 17th in run defense DVOA), but I expect Snell to be playing just a change of pace role to Conner at most. If Conner is somehow out again, Snell becomes more of a dicey flex play.
RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): Although there is a great chance that the Ravens win in a waltz Thursday night, we’ve seen that happen several times this year and it hasn’t turned into garbage time production for Hill. Baltimore is favored by 16.5 points in this game, but that likely means a lot of Gus Edwards in the second half. Even if Hill gets extra opportunity late, the Jets rank 2nd in run defense DVOA.
WRs Terry McLaurin & Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Phi.): Washington’s passing attack just isn’t consistent enough to trust any of the pass catchers in it in the most important weeks of the season. Philly does allow the 5th-most points per game to opposing wide receivers, so I understand if you have to start McLaurin in a deeper league. He’s the only receiver that has shown enough to even consider. The Eagles have been burned by Darius Slayton and DeVante Parker in the last two weeks, but each guy may have caught for more yards than Haskins is likely to throw for this week.
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Johnson posted a nice game last weekend, but the return of JuJu Smith-Schuster will be a problem for him moving forward. Devlin Hodges is averaging just 20 pass attempts and 1 TD in his starts, and with JuJu taking a handful of those targets, it’s hard to imagine more than just a few for Diontae. You’re banking on a touchdown if you play him, and Buffalo is one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league. I’m staying away from Johnson this week.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 15: vs. Den.): The big plays are enticing, but Hardman has just 8 offensive touches in the last 6 games. He’s been productive with those touches, but they aren’t enough to count on with your season on the line.
WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 15: @Cin.): Harry missed out on a touchdown last week on a blown call by the officials, but it was his only target of the game. Meyers continued to play a decent amount of the offensive snaps but has seen his targets drop each of the last two weeks as Sanu and Dorsett get healthier. The duo combined for 2 catches and 47 yards last week. There just isn’t enough here to trust in the semifinals.
WR Olamide Zaccheaus, ATL (Wk. 15: @SF): Zaccheaus came out of nowhere to score a 93-yard touchdown last week, but it was his only target of the game. He should see additional work moving forward with Calvin Ridley done for the year, but this week draws one of the best pass defenses in the league. San Francisco ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA and allows the 4th-fewest PPR points per game to receivers.
WR Riley Ridley, CHI (Wk. 15: @GB): Ridley was the receiver thrust into action with Javon Wims going down with injury last Thursday, but there isn’t a lot of leftover receiving work to go around after Allen Robinson, and Anthony Miller and Tarik Cohen will both be ahead of Ridley in the pecking order. Monitor Ridley to see how he performs with extended opportunity, but don’t use him in fantasy lineups.
WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): Adam Thielen is on track to return this week, and Bisi wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire in his absence. The Chargers aren’t a great matchup, allowing the 3rd-fewest WR points per game. I wouldn’t consider Johnson anywhere this week.
TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): It looks like Evan Engram has a good chance to return this week, and even if he doesn’t there are higher upside options out there than Smith. I’d stay away from him this week. As bad as the Dolphins have been, they are at least a middling defense against tight ends.
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 15: @Pit.): The Steelers have allowed just one tight end to reach 30 receiving yards since their week 7 bye, and Knox has just 8 catches in the last 4 weeks. Knox is nothing more than a TD dart throw this week.
TE Irv Smith Jr, MIN (Wk. 15: @LAC): The Chargers allow the 9th-fewest TE points per game, and the return of Adam Thielen this week should leave less passing volume to go around to the other weapons. Smith hasn’t had many fantasy relevant weeks this season, and I wouldn’t count on this to be one either.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 15: @Oak.): Minshew hasn’t looked quite the same since being re-inserted into the lineup in place of Nick Foles, but the Raiders are a perfect spot for him to get right. Oakland has allowed the 2nd-most QB points per game and rank 31st in pass defense DVOA. The Jaguars are likely to lean on Leonard Fournette, so there may not be a ton of volume for Gardner, but against this defense he should make the most of the passes he does throw, and he’s always a candidate to add a few points with his legs. I like his chances of finishing as at least a mid-QB2, but he is just the 27th-highest priced QB on DraftKings at $5,500.
RB Patrick Laird, MIA (Wk. 15: @NYG): Laird was the full time running back last week in the Dolphins’ first game since Kalen Ballage was hurt, playing 82% of the offensive snaps. While 15 carries for 48 yards doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, it’s more impressive than it looks on the surface. Ballage couldn’t manage to run for 2 yards per carry behind this offensive line. Laird averaged 3.2 per carry against the defense that ranks 2nd in run defense DVOA. The Giants aren’t a pushover, but they aren’t as stingy against runners as the Jets. Laird has also seen 5 targets in each of the last 2 games, making him an interesting option in PPR leagues. I know it’s not exciting to start any Dolphins’ offensive players, but Laird is at least intriguing as a flex option in deeper leagues.
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 15: @Was.): The Eagles have to throw the ball to someone, and only JJ and Greg Ward are healthy at this point. The Eagles will undoubtedly use two tight end sets as their base offense, but JJAW will be on the field almost every snap. Washington ranks 18th in pass defense DVOA and Arcega-Whiteside is a big bodied receiver who excels in the red zone. He’s as good a bet as any Eagle pass catcher to find the end zone this week.
WR Scotty Miller, TB (Wk. 15: @Det.): Miller is practicing this week and looks likely to return. I’ve seen a lot of fantasy pundits talking up Justin Watson this week with Mike Evans done for the year, but Miller and Breshad Perriman were both playing ahead of him before Miller got hurt. The Lions allow the 9th-most WR points per game and the Bucs are a pass-happy offense. Miller is an upside option in DFS tournaments this week. He costs the minimum in DraftKings. Obviously, he shouldn’t be considered if Jameis Winston ends up sitting, so keep an eye on his status if considering Miller.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Championship week is upon us. There are several rookies who have helped us get here along the way, but few that are easy to trust this week whether due to injury or tough matchups. This week is slated to have 8 rookie QBs under center, but unless you are in a 2QB league you probably won’t be starting any of them in your championships. The rookies that matter this week are the top tier running backs and the handful of receivers that have shown to be useful weekly options. I’ll still talk a bit about the QBs and a few deeper league guys that could help in DFS this week, but I know who you’re here to see. A lot of the rookie RBs and WRs are listed as borderline options. Keep in mind that all the guys at the same position and same header are listed in the order I would play them this week. Let’s look at which rookies could help carry you across the finish line…
Rookies to Start:
RB Alexander Mattison, Min (Wk. 16: vs. GB): I’m listing Mattison here to emphasize just how much I like him if he’s somehow able to play. He still wasn’t practicing Friday, and the Vikings don’t play until Monday night. There is a real chance that you don’t have much clarity on his status until Monday. The Packers have struggled to defend opposing backs all year, coughing up the 8th-most PPR points to the position and ranking 25th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Dalvin Cook torched them for 191 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in the first meeting, and Green Bay has allowed a double-digit scorer at the position in half PPR scoring in 13 of their last 14 games. Damien Williams ended up with 9 in the other one. Mattison was considered a high value handcuff all year. This is the reason why. There has been a lot of hype this week for Mike Boone on fantasy twitter, and it’s warranted if Mattison isn’t able to play, but if Mattison does play he could win you your league. If you have other quality options that play Saturday or Sunday, I’d certainly consider starting them rather than waiting on Mattison, but if your other options are guys like Tevin Coleman or Carlos Hyde or other low-upside RB3 types, I’d move Mattison to a flex spot, pick up a Packers’ receiver as a fallback and hope he plays (assuming you weren’t able to get Boone as your fallback). Jake Kumerow should be available in most leagues. If Mattison does play, I like his chances to be a top-15 finisher at the position this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 16: @Sea.): It feels like Murray is close to turning a corner as a passer in his young career. After an up and down first half of the season, he’s posted a passer rating of 98 or better in 4 of his last 6 games. He’s also posted 12 total touchdowns in that span (10 passing, 2 rushing). The Seahawks are a slightly above average pass defense, ranking 12th in pass defense DVOA, but this could turn into a shootout. Along with Tampa-Houston, this game is tied for the highest Vegas total of the week. Murray is a bit volatile for my tastes if I’m starting him as my QB1, but he should be a strong QB2 option this week and an interesting DFS play at a reasonable $6,100 on DraftKings.
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Atlanta has been playing improved football over the past several weeks, and to be honest I’m not quite sure how they’ve pulled it off. They’re missing their top corner Dez Trufant and have their number 2 and 3 guys battling injuries as well, and this week sent leading pass rusher Takk McKinley to IR, yet they’ve managed to go 4-2 since their bye week and have held Kyle Allen, Drew Brees and Jimmy Garoppolo to an average of just 207 passing yards in their last 3 games. I’m not sure that Minshew is the guy to break that trend. He hasn’t had quite the same magic since being re-inserted into the starting role, but he showed flashes of getting it back last week in a comeback win against Oakland. If he’s able to carry over the way he played late in that game, he should have a great chance to finish as a mid-range QB2 this week. Despite their recent improved play, the Falcons still allow the 5th-most QB points per game for the year.
QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 16: @Was.): Jones has been cleared to return this week, and he gets to face a Washington defense that can be burned by mediocre QBs. The list of QBs that have tallied 3 total touchdowns or more against Washington this year includes Mitch Trubisky, Kyle Allen, and Sam Darnold, but Jones’ Achilles heel has been turnovers and it’s one that Washington can exploit. Washington’s overall numbers aren’t terrible. They rank a middling 18th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 14th-most QB points per game. Jones has turned the ball over 20 times in his 10 starts this year, and Washington has forced 8 QB turnovers in their last 5. There is a bit of a ceiling to chase this week with Jones, but coming off a high ankle sprain I wouldn’t expect him to augment his score much with his legs. I’d view him more as an upside QB2 than anything else this week.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Dal.): Over the last 4 weeks, Sanders has averaged almost 16 carries and just over 5 targets per game. He doesn’t always make the most of his opportunities, but he’s playing well enough to be a fantasy asset when his usage looks like that. The Eagles are going to be without Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor again, so his passing game work should be secure. The key for how big a ceiling he has will come down to how efficient he is with his rushing attempts. We’ve seen him not always show the best vision and ability to get what’s blocked. He’ll have to do a better job of that here if the Eagles hope to win. Even if he doesn’t, Sanders should be on the cusp of the RB2 range. He has a top-10 ceiling and should probably be in your lineup this week unless you have a stud to play ahead of him.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): Singletary has been one of the brightest spots of the entire rookie class this year, but he gets a tough draw for championship week. He’s been held below 79 scrimmage yards just once since week 9 but must go to Foxboro to battle the Patriots’ league-best defense this week. New England has hung their hat on not letting running backs into the end zone. They’ve given up just two running back scores all year. Singletary hasn’t been putting up his points on touchdowns, so there is still a chance for him to post a nice day. If you’ve been starting him all year and have been happy with his output, you should strongly consider playing him again this week. This is unlikely to be a ceiling week for him, so he’s more of a contrarian DFS play, but the Pats have given up 90+ scrimmage yards to 6 different running backs this year. It’s probably close to a 50/50 bet that Singletary makes it 7 this week.
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 16: vs. KC): David Montgomery with good on-paper matchups might be one of the most frustrating things in fantasy football this year. Even when he gets good usage and runs well, the final stat line ends up being unsatisfying. Will this week continue that trend? Kansas City allows the 3rd-most running back PPR points per game. They’re bad against the run, ranking 30th in run defense DVOA, and they’re bad at limiting backs as receivers, coughing up the 2nd-most RB receiving yards per game. Monty is unlikely to take advantage of their struggles to stop pass catching backs. Even as Montgomery has rattled off a stretch of 8 consecutive games with at least 15 touches, he’s been out-targeted by Tarik Cohen 47-19. It’ll likely take a touchdown for you to be happy with Monty’s output. He’s had red zone usage with 7 carries inside the 20 in the last 5 games, but none of them have ended in 6 points. Montgomery is best viewed as a high floor, low ceiling RB3.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. NO): AJ has been a revelation since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB. He’s put up the bulk of his fantasy points with Tannehill in 3 blowup games against bad defenses, but he’s still averaged 77.5 yards per game across all of Tannehill’s 8 starts. The Saints rank a respectable 10th in pass defense DVOA, but they allow the 8th-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers. The Saints haven’t proven to be a matchup to run away from, and I don’t see how you sit a player that has put up 23.5 PPR points or more 3 times in his last 4 games. I can live with starting Brown this week and him flopping much more easily that I’d be able to live with benching him if he blows up again.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 16: vs. Ari.): Metcalf has been remarkably steady from a fantasy perspective in the 2nd half of the season. He’s topped at least 11 PPR points in 6 of his last 7 games and had at least 6 catches and 70 yards in 4 of the last 6. He hasn’t really shown the kind of ceiling that we’d hope for in recent weeks, but this may be a week where he’s able to do that. Only Detroit and Oakland allow more completions for 20+ yards than the Cardinals do. Metcalf fell flat in the first meeting between these teams with just 1 catch for 6 yards, but he’s become a much bigger cog in the offense since then. With Seattle favored by 9 and a half points, there is a chance this gets out of hand early and Metcalf winds up with a poor day, but I think it’s more likely that Metcalf comes up with a deep catch or two before things are settled.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): McLaurin made it two weeks in a row with a touchdown last Sunday and posted his best yardage day of the season, and this week he faces a New York defense that has given up the 6th-most WR PPR points per game. They also rank an abysmal 30th in pass defense DVOA. McLaurin seems to have re-established his connection with his college QB, but Washington’s run-first attack and inconsistent QB play always lurk as threats to Scary Terry’s opportunities. The passing game should still run through McLaurin, especially the high value deep targets, but just know that his chances to bust are a little higher than your average WR2 option.
WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 16: @Was.): Slayton managed to salvage his fantasy day with a touchdown Sunday, but the low volume might have been alarming for those of you who started Slayton last week. The Giants were playing the Dolphins and won easily. It isn’t something that happens often for them and they were able to lean on the run game late. This game should be a bit more competitive. Prior to last week, Slayton had been targeted 38 times in the previous 4 weeks. Some of that came with other receivers sidelined, so don’t expect Slayton to be targeted 10+ times this week, but he should be more involved than he was last Sunday. Washington isn’t a terrible pass defense. They rank 18th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 13th-fewest WR PPR points per game, but Slayton has proven to be a threat to find the end zone in every game, and he’s scored multiple TDs 3 times this year. He’s got the kind of upside you don’t want to leave on your bench if you’re between him and a lower ceiling option.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Week 15 didn’t go according to plan for Deebo. He was held to single-digit PPR points for the first time since week 9 in what looked like a plus matchup on paper. This week’s matchup looks a little less inviting. That could change if it turns out Jalen Ramsey is going to shadow Emmanuel Sanders. The Rams have deployed Ramsey in shadow coverage in spots this year, but with San Francisco being a run 1st offense with a tight end as their leading receiver, I’d be surprised if Ramsey is deployed that way in this one. That means both receivers will see a bit of him. Samuel is still in play as an upside WR3 this week. He’s shown the ability to post solid fantasy games with limited opportunity. He may have to do so again this week.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 16: @Cle.): Brown has been a volatile weekly option for fantasy lineups, and I’d have a hard time pulling the trigger on starting him this week with the title at stake. The Browns gave up three 100-yard days to wide receivers in the first 3 weeks of the season and have allowed just one since. Brown was held mostly in check in the first meeting between these two teams with 4 catches for 22 yards on 7 targets. In the past 5 weeks Brown has had PPR scores of 21.2 and 14.5 points…and failed to reach 5 points in any of the other 3 games. The highs are fun, but the lows are low for Hollywood. This doesn’t look like a smash spot for him, so I would suggest thinking long and hard about it before putting him into your championship lineups.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Fant has played fewer than 50% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two games, but he also topped 50 receiving yards in each, a mark he reached just twice all year before week 14. The Lions have been better against tight ends this year than their recent history, but still allow the 15th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t look for Fant to post a blowup game this week, but he’s been utilized enough by Lock that he’s in play as a low-end TE1 for a consolation game. I wouldn’t be excited about him in a championship.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 16: @NYJ): There is an outside shot that Hodges puts up a better game than expected this week since the Jets are strong against the run and may force Pittsburgh to throw more than they typically would, but we’ve seen Hodges fail to cash in against bad pass defenses a couple times now. The Cardinals are the worst QB defense in the league; The Bengals are bottom-10; The Browns are bottom-half, and Hodges didn’t reach 15 fantasy points against any of them. Sure, the Bengals’ game is tough to count since he didn’t start and instead replaced an ineffective Mason Rudolph, but I still wouldn’t want to bet on this week being the first time Hodges posts a big day.
QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 16: @Den.): Since throwing his second 1st-quarter touchdown against the Bears on Thanksgiving, Blough has posted just 5.16 yards per attempt and thrown just 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions across almost 3 full games. This week he faces a Denver defense that allows the 9th-fewest QB points per game. A low upside option in a bad matchup is not a recipe for fantasy success.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 16: @Phi.): Last week was a fun one to have Pollard in best ball leagues as Dallas unexpectedly trounced the Rams and Pollard piled up points in garbage time. Don’t treat that as a reason to start him this week. The Cowboys are unlikely to put that kind of beating on Philly, and the Eagles allow the 9th-fewest RB points per game. Sure, there is a chance that the Cowboys decide to give Pollard a bit more work this week after his impressive performance, but chasing last week’s unexpected points is a recipe for disaster.
RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): It’s been nice seeing Thompson get a chance to get on the field and produce some fantasy points these past few weeks. He hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but he’s flashed some of the talent that made people excited about him this preseason. Still, he was only playing about a third of the offensive snaps each of the past 3 weeks with Damien Williams out, splitting time with LeSean McCoy and Spencer Ware. Williams is going to return this week and push him back to the bench or at least into a smaller role. I’m out on Darwin this week.
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 16: @LAC): Just listing Jacobs in case you missed the news that he’s taking the week off to rest his ailing shoulder. DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard will work in his place.
RBs Benny Snell & Kerrith Whyte, PIT (Wk. 16: @NYJ): With James Conner back on the field last week, Snell & Whyte combined to play just 8 offensive snaps. The Jets rank 2nd in run defense DVOA and Snell still costs nearly $5,000 on DraftKings. Steer well clear of this duo.
WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Harry appears to have pushed Meyers and Phillip Dorsett to the bench for now, playing 38 snaps last week while the other 2 combined for 19, but we’ve seen New England switch things up before. This isn’t a great matchup to play any New England wide receivers, even Julian Edelman who is clearly playing at less than 100% and just put up a 9-yard game last week. The Bills allow the 4th-fewest PPR points to the position and rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA. They’ve allowed just one 100-yard receiver all year and only 8 receivers to reach 10 fantasy points in half-PPR. This isn’t the week to try Harry or Meyers in DFS or regular lineups.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 16: @Chi.): You know the drill with Mecole by now. With the full complement of Kansas City receivers healthy, Hardman just isn’t playing a whole lot. He’s made some exciting splash plays in those limited snaps and gotten in the end zone a few times, but that’s what you’re banking on if you use Hardman in any format, and the Bears have allowed just 7 offensive plays of 40+ yards all year against them. Mecole isn’t even the most likely guy on his own team to cash in on a big play as long as Tyreek Hill is around.
WRs Kelvin Harmon & Steven Sims, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Both of these players have made some positive plays this year, but the passing volume just isn’t robust enough to consider anyone but McLaurin for fantasy lineups right now. The matchup this week is conducive to throwing the ball, but we’ve seen Haskins throw 30+ times just once in 6 starts, and the highest value targets are going to McLaurin. If I were scrounging for a deep DFS sleeper for tournaments I’d prefer Sims to Harmon as he’s been targeted 18 times in the last 2 weeks, but both have low ceilings unless they’re getting in the end zone.
WRs Hunter Renfrow & Keelan Doss, OAK (Wk. 16: @LAC): Renfrow is on track to return this week, but the injury that sidelined him was cracked ribs and a punctured lung suffered just a few weeks ago. I’d be surprised if the Raiders throw him back into a full-time role in his first game back no matter how good they claim he looks in practice. He was just a low-upside PPR WR4 most weeks before suffering the injury. His return will also render Doss unplayable. It was Doss who had picked up the extra snaps at WR in his absence. I’d stay away from both this week as the Chargers allow the 3rd-fewest WR PPR points per game.
WR Bisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. GB): With Adam Thielen back in the lineup, Bisi was limited to 26 offensive snaps and one passing game target. He’ll be irrelevant for fantasy purposes with both Diggs and Thielen on the field. No team plays fewer 3-wide sets than Minnesota.
TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Although he found the end zone last Sunday and this week faces a defense allowing the 9th-most PPR points per game to tight ends, Smith is at best a touchdown dart throw this week. He’s playing plenty of snaps, but this just remains such a low volume passing attack that he isn’t getting enough opportunity to break through to fantasy relevance when he doesn’t find the end zone. It doesn’t help Smith that the team’s number 3 tight end Tyler Conklin has been playing 40+ percent of the snaps in each of the last 2 weeks as well. Irv’s cheap in DFS, but there are higher-upside tight ends to chase.
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): Knox has been an afterthought in the Bills’ offense for the last month, and I don’t see this as the week where that changes. In his last 4 games, the rookie has pulled in a total of 7 passes for 76 yards on 11 targets, and New England allows the 7th-fewest TE PPR points per game.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Lock has acquitted himself pretty well since taking over as the starting QB in Denver. He struggled last week in snowy conditions in Kansas City, but he performed well against the Chargers in his debut and shredded a mediocre pass defense in Houston two weeks ago. This week he gets to face the best matchup he’s gotten so far. Detroit has allowed 5 of the last 9 teams they’ve played to throw for *at least* 320 yards and 3 touchdowns. I’m not suggesting that Lock will put up those kinds of numbers. The Broncos are a touchdown favorite and will likely lean on the run game if they get out in front, but something in the range of 15-20 fantasy points wouldn’t be surprising for Lock. He’s a sneaky QB2 this week and an intriguing cheap DFS option.
QB Will Grier, CAR (Wk. 16: @Ind.): The Will Grier era in Carolina is upon us, at least for the next two weeks. Grier was known as a gunslinger in college. He was willing to push the ball down the field and had great results at West Virginia. He averaged nearly 10 yards per attempt and threw 37 touchdowns as a senior. He had a shaky preseason where he connected on just 1 of 11 deep passes and ultimately lost the backup job to Kyle Allen, but he’s behind Allen no more. As Carolina has fallen out of the playoff picture with 6 consecutive losses, they’ve finally decided to give Grier a shot. Grier’s debut comes in a pretty good matchup for him. The Colts allow the 10th-most QB points per game and have given up the 5th-highest passer rating to opposing QBs. They don’t give up a lot of deep balls, but this still feels like a game where Grier may connect downfield with Curtis Samuel a couple times. Grier costs barely more than the QB minimum on DraftKings, and Indy has coughed up 762 passing yards and 8 touchdown tosses in the last two weeks. There are worse options out there if you want to take a crazy swing in a DFS tournament.
QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Haskins had his best yardage game as a pro last weekend and gets a favorable matchup this weekend as well. The Giants allow the 8th-most QB points per game and rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. The Giants are much better against the run, ranking 8th in run defense DVOA, so the burden to make plays will likely fall on Haskins. It remains to be seen which team will be more motivated to win this game. The winning team will get rivalry bragging rights, but the losing team will likely get to draft Chase Young. I don’t know that I expect Haskins to do enough to be trusted in lineups, but 200+ yards and 2 scores isn’t out of the question this week, and he’s only hit those marks twice in 6 starts.
RBs Patrick Laird & Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have been a defense to target with your running backs all year, and that will hold true even in this toilet bowl of a matchup. The question of which running back to target them with this week got a little more muddled with Gaskin playing the same number of offensive snaps as Laird in week 15, but I think both have a chance to return nice value. Cincinnati ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and coughs up the 6th-most RB PPR points per game. Neither player would be trustworthy in your league championship, but in deep leagues and DFS tournaments both are worth looking at. I’d still prefer Laird over Gaskin. He got the start and played most of the first two drives on Sunday, but Gaskin will be involved moving forward as well. Even as the playing time evened up, Laird still handled 3 more carries and 2 more targets than Gaskin.
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 16: @NYJ): Johnson becomes much harder to trust if JuJu Smith-Schuster returns this week, but he’s carved out a nice role for himself with JuJu sidelined and Duck Hodges under center. Diontae has been targeted 15 times in the last 2 weeks and turned in 11-122-1 with at least 60 yards in each game. The Jets have proven to be a strong run defense and bad pass defense, which plays into Johnson’s hands a bit. They allow the 10th-most WR PPR points per game despite playing a pretty easy WR schedule. The only top-14 WRs (in total PPR points) they’ve faced all year are Julian Edelman and Amari Cooper, and Cooper got hurt very early on in their meeting. Disregard Johnson if JuJu suits up, but if not, he’s got interesting upside for deep leagues.
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Dal.): I know, talking about using JJ in any format feels like a joke at this point, and a bad one if you have him in any dynasty leagues. I don’t know if there is such a thing as a contrarian flyer in DFS, but that’s what I would call JJ this week. He costs just $3,500 in DraftKings and he’s been playing more than 90% of Philly’s offensive snaps with Alshon and Agholor out. He only has 6 targets and 2 catches to show for it in the last two weeks, but he also has 4 red zone targets in the last 5 games. It’s almost purely a gut call, but I have a feeling that Arcega-Whiteside cashes in his opportunities this week and posts a surprising 2 touchdown game. The Cowboys rank just 23rd in pass defense DVOA.
TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 16: @Was.): Smith became a bit of a forgotten man in the past 2 weeks as Eli Manning filled in at quarterback. That could change this week with Daniel Jones back at the helm. With Jones under center Smith was targeted 14 times in weeks 12 & 13, tallying 11-87-1. With Eli in he was targeted just 8 times in the last 2 games and ended up with just 5 catches for 47 yards. There is some threat that Rhett Ellison returns this week, but Smith seemed to have a connection with Jones, and Washington allows the 5th-most TE PPR points per game. It would be a big leap of faith to use Smith in the fantasy championship with Ellison looming, but I could see my way to using him in DFS lineups.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
38.1 Fantasy Points
Good things do indeed come in small packages, as proven last night by Kyler Murray. His 38.1-point performance last night vaulted him to the top of the overall points list for all fantasy players this year. His per-game average is still a few points behind Russell Wilson, who has already had his bye week, but Kyler defeated Russell last night, so let’s focus on him today. Kyler’s consistency is remarkable – his lowest scoring week this season is a healthy 23.12 points, which is a floor that not even Wilson can match. The Cardinals now have a 5-2 record in the toughest division in football. He has at least 2 TDs in every game, and in 5 games he has 3 TDs. He’s putting up some great rushing numbers as well, with 437 total rushing yards he has the 11th most rushing yards in the entire league. Murray has made great progress since last season, and his future is very bright. As he gets better, his interception rate will drop, his completion percentage will go up, and he will be a frequent participant in the playoffs, both in fantasy football and real football.
51.4 Points in 2 Games
Yesterday was the Jeff Wilson show again for the San Francisco 49ers. Wilson found the end zone 3 times and is the RB1 on the week with 31 fantasy points. In 2 games, this season, Weeks 3 and 7, he has 51.4 points. In the other 3 games he appeared in this season, he has a whopping 5.4 points total. It’s enough to give you whiplash. This just kind of shows that the best RB on the 49ers in the last few years seems to be whoever the backup is. Another player who’s going to give your fantasy team whiplash, though not quite as badly, is Tyler Lockett. Yesterday he put up the biggest single-game total that we’ve seen in fantasy football this year. 15 receptions, 200 receiving yards, and 3 TDs for a grand total of 45.5 points is truly an amazing performance. Weeks 3 and 7 were also Lockett’s good weeks, where he put up a total of 78 points. His two games between those weeks combined for just 11.3 points. Lockett, unlike Wilson, is at least an every-week starter that has to stay in your lineup for his absolutely absurd ceiling.
1 NFL Victory
Rookie QB Justin Herbert has been quite remarkable since he was called in to start Week 2 with just a few minutes' heads up. Sunday, he finally notched his first win and Herbert led all QBs with 38.48 fantasy points. This year, Herbert has 3 games over 300 passing yards and has at least 3 passing TDs each of the last 3 weeks. He’s now averaging just a hair under 30 points in each of his last 3 games. His schedule going forward isn’t too bad through week 16, with only 2 opponents not in the bottom half giving up fantasy points to opposing QBs. It also seems like regardless of Tyrod Taylor’s status, Herbert will remain the starter going forward. As for Herbert’s opponent yesterday, it seems that Minshew Mania has dwindled down to a golf clap at best after his paltry 14 for 27 performance netting just 173 yards passing. The Jaguars 1-6 record is going to have them thinking long and hard about the future of the team through their upcoming bye week. The only bright spot on the team has been rookie UDFA James Robinson, who is the RB6 on the season.
5 Go Ahead 4th Quarter TDs
Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow combined for 5 go-ahead touchdowns in the 4th quarter on Sunday, an NFL record. Both of the young QBs are playing very well this year for their respective teams. The two teams combined for 34 total points in the 4th quarter, with a missed XP at the very end looming very large for the sports bettors out there. With his first 30+ point performance of his career, Joe Burrow moves up to the QB10 spot on the season. He broke the 400-yard mark for the first time, and also helped his own cause by scrambling for a TD to start the scoring on Sunday. Burrow also threw 3 TDs to 3 different players. On the other side, Baker Mayfield also cracked 30 fantasy points, but he sits as the QB21 on the year and is just an interesting streaming option for now. The Browns will continue to focus on running the ball first – they’re still 5th in the league in rushing attempts. The impressive 5-2 Browns will host the Raiders next week, but will not have the services of resurgent WR Odell Beckham Jr, who is out for the season with an ACL tear.
24 Fantasy Points on Defense
For the second time this season, the Kansas City Chiefs have the top D/ST score in the league. A gaudy stat line of 1 kick return TD, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks, 2 fumbles recovered and 1 defensive TD contributed to their 24-point total on Sunday. This doubled up the 12 points that Patrick Mahomes put up this week. Not that Mahomes had a bad game, he just didn’t need to do much with his defense doing all the work. We also saw rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire find the end zone for the first time since Week 1. He’s clearly seeing Le’Veon Bell filling his entire rearview mirror. Side note – isn’t it awesome to see football in the snow? I freaking love it and the chaos that can sometimes ensue in it during a football game. Finally, you can add Denver to the list of teams (that include the Jets, Giants, and …Team) to fade when streaming a D/ST.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
252 Yards from Scrimmage
For the second week in a row, Dalvin Cook reached 200 yards from scrimmage in another dominating performance. This time around, he only needed 22 carries to hit 206 rushing yards, but he still added 2 catches for 46 yards for good measure. He did “only” find the end zone twice, but it was enough to be the top scorer for the second week in a row with 38.2 points. Most weeks I wonder if someone will turn in a performance on Monday night that makes one of my entries a moot point. This week is not one of those times. Cook is now the RB1 on the season with a 10-point lead over Alvin Kamara, who turned in a mere 49 yards from scrimmage in a game where his team put up 38 points. Cook has 13 touchdowns in just 7 games and is basically single-handedly dragging his team out of the basement of the NFC North. An honorable mention goes to Christian McCaffrey, who did not skip a beat and put up 32.1 points in his return, continuing his average of scoring 2 TDs per game. Unfortunately, it sounds like McCaffrey is headed to the bench with another injury.
2% Ownership in Fleaflicker Leagues
There were a number of familiar names on the top WR list of the week, but the one above all the others was definitely new to me. Richie James, who is owned in just 2% of Fleaflicker leagues, and was started in zero leagues that you or I are in, had 3 receptions over 40 yards, including his 41-yard touchdown in what can only be described as garbage time while the 49ers were down 34-10 late in the 4th quarter. Fantasy football, however, does not care what the score is on the field, so James gets credit for all the 28.9 points that he earned last Thursday night. James just barely edged out Tyreek Hill, who put up his first 100 receiving yard game of the season and caught the 100th (and 101st) touchdown pass of Patrick Mahomes’ career. Hill has been around for all of them – he also caught Mahomes’ first TD pass back in 2018. Mahomes is the fastest QB to 100 passing TDs, beating Dan Marino’s mark by 4 games.
3rd Week as the Top TE
Travis Kelce has been the top TE on a weekly basis for 1/3rd of the season so far. Not too bad when you consider just how volatile the position is in fantasy football. Kelce is basically a lock for the top spot when he reaches the 20-point mark. This week, and last’s, 20.9-point performances were good for the lead, and it wasn’t even close. He also put up 20.8 in Week 5 and led the league. On the season, Kelce is just dominating the position and is in tier 1 all by himself and it’s not even close. You might say that tier 2 is his as well, considering he has 139.9 points on the season and the next closest player is over 50 points behind him. Darren Waller has quietly been the TE2 on the season without ever finishing in the top 2 of any given week. Waller leads his team in both receptions and receiving yards, though being 8 games into the season and not having a single receiving leader over 400 yards is nothing to write home about.
8th Most Rushing Yards in the League
Kyler Murray did all he could on Sunday to win but lost to a very surprising Miami team that is playing way beyond any level that people expected this season. Murray added another 106 rushing yards to his already gaudy numbers this season. For the year, he has the 8th most rushing yards of any player in the league. He’s averaging 7.14 yards per carry. If he never threw a pass, he would be the RB13– 102.3 points come from his rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs. As it stands, Murray is the QB1 on the season with 240.5 points in 8 games. He leads a tier 1 of QBs that include 3 other players, all of whom deserve MVP votes so far this year. Patrick Mahomes got a shout out earlier, but really the major props go to Josh Allen who shut up his critics for a week with his 44-34 win over the Seahawks. Russell Wilson was the only one of the group to struggle, turning the ball over 4 times and scoring his second-lowest total of the season, 24.1 points.
8 Rushing Yards
Tom Brady suffered the worst defeat of his career (35 points) last night and everybody was invited to watch it on Sunday Night Football. The Buccaneers combined for just 8 total rushing yards in a game where none of their players reached double-digit fantasy points. Brady had just 209 passing yards and 3 INTs as he could only muster a late field goal for his team to keep them from being shut out. On the other side, Drew Brees was the only one with a good fantasy game, despite his team putting up 38 points. Brees found the end zone 4 times reaching 22.68 fantasy points, nearly 10 more than the next highest player on his team. Of note in this game was the fact that it contained the two all-time passing touchdown leaders in the NFL. Brees and Brady keep trading the top spot, but this week it was all Brees. He’s now in the lead 564-561.