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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Football season is fast approaching – we’ve gotten our first taste of preseason action, and while the games haven’t exactly been barnburners it was still nice to see actual football again. Today I’m continuing my preseason look at the rookie class. If you missed my QB fact sheet, you can find that here, but today I’m going to take a look at the running back class. The premise is simple. I’m going to give you some cold hard facts that apply to the rookie running back class based on things like draft capital, college production, and coaching tendencies, and then give you my interpretation of what those things mean for 2021 season and beyond. Since most dynasty rookie drafts are over, the info is going to slant towards redraft leagues, but there will be some dynasty tidbits thrown in as well. Let’s dive in…

FACT:

Since Mike Tomlin took over as Steelers head coach in 2007, their lead running backs have averaged 275.6 touches per year.

In the last 10 years, the 14 running backs drafted in the 1^st round of the NFL draft have handled an average of 240 touches in their rookie year.

What it means:

 Najee Harris should be in line for a huge role as a rookie. 10 of those 14 first-round picks handled at least 200 touches in their rookie season (and Christian McCaffrey was at 197), and Harris landed with one of the teams that aren’t afraid to use a workhorse back. Only 5 teams have given more touches per year to their lead back over Tomlin’s tenure than the Steelers. All camp reports so far have confirmed that Najee is ticketed for a big role and his 43 catches as a senior makes it easy to envision him being very involved in the passing game. Harris has the upside this year to finish as a top-8 back and should be THE guy in the Pittsburgh backfield for the foreseeable future.

FACT:

From 2017-2020 there were 5 running backs drafted in the 2^nd round of the NFL draft that had a teammate who was both, a former 1,000-yard rusher, and was 28 years old or younger. 4 of those 5 handled 14+ touches per game as a rookie (AJ Dillon is the only one who didn’t), and three of them finished as the RB16 or better in points per game (half-PPR) as a rookie.

Nick Chubb narrowly missed the cutoff for this list when he was drafted in 2018. Carlos Hyde was 27 years old at the time and his career-high in rushing yards at that point was 988 yards. Chubb averaged 13.25 touches per game and finished as the RB16 in total points as a rookie.

What it means:

You might’ve guessed that the only running back in the 2021 class this applies to is Javonte Williams. Williams is being drafted as the RB24, while teammate Melvin Gordon is being drafted as the RB28. I don’t believe that Gordon is washed up, and I don’t think he’s going to just be pushed aside for Javonte, but those ADPs are too close together. From 2001-2010, there were 30 running backs drafted in the first round. From 2011-2020, that number was just 11. A second-round running back today is the equivalent of a mid-to-late first-round running back a decade ago, and a player with that kind of draft capital is going to see the field a lot.

Williams posted 1,445 scrimmage yards and 22 TDs in just 11 games while splitting the RB work pretty much right down the middle with Michael Carter last season at North Carolina, and his physical running style should play well in Denver. Williams doesn’t profile as a prolific pass-catcher, so he’ll be most valuable in non-PPR leagues, but don’t be afraid to reach above his ADP for him in any format. You may have to wait a few weeks for Williams to be fully unleashed like people had to with Nick Chubb in 2018, but he’s going to be a solid RB2 and maybe more once he gets the starter’s share of the work.

FACT:

In his time as a college coach, Urban Meyer had 4 different seasons where a wide receiver or tight end logged 70+ rushing attempts.

What it means:

There’s a reason the Jaguars drafted Travis Etienne in the first round of the NFL Draft despite having an established starting running back in James Robinson. Urban has a propensity to use his most dynamic players in a hybrid running back and wide receiver role if they can handle it. He showed hints of it at Utah when his leading receiver Paris Warren totaled 48 rushing attempts in his two seasons there, and in later years went all-in on that role with Percy Harvin (twice), Trey Burton, and Curtis Samuel. Etienne appears to be ticketed for that type of role with the Jaguars.

This is a great thing for Etienne’s outlook as a rookie, especially in PPR formats. James Robinson figures to still be the leading rusher, but Etienne should be heavily involved in the passing game. I already mentioned above that 1^st-round running backs have averaged 240 touches as rookies over the last decade. I don’t think Etienne will approach that number, but I’d view him as a rich man’s Nyheim Hines (or Duke Johnson from a few years ago). He should probably be drafted as a borderline RB2 in full PPR leagues, and about 6-8 spots lower in non-PPR formats.

FACT:

Kyle Shanahan has been an offensive coordinator or head coach for 13 seasons. In 7 of them, his lead back logged 200 or fewer touches. In 6 of them, his lead back logged more than 280 touches. None of his lead backs finished between those two numbers.

What it means:

Shanahan typically either has a clear-cut number one back or a full-blown committee backfield. There hasn’t been any in-between for him. For the last 3 seasons in San Francisco, it’s been the committee, and this year looks to be more of the same with a crowded backfield group that includes Raheem Mostert, Wayne Gallman, and rookies Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell. That doesn’t even include Jeffery Wilson Jr., who should return from injury somewhere in the back half of the season. Sermon is someone who has been identified as a sneaky later-round pick that has starter upside, but I don’t expect his usage to be consistent enough for that to come to fruition.

The 49ers have had an efficient run game under Shanahan, but I expect a carousel of running backs to be involved, with Mostert and Sermon handling the biggest share of the load. They’ll both have their weeks where they produce, but you’ll be hard-pressed to guess which one it’ll be unless there are injuries involved. I wouldn’t reach for Sermon expecting a starter’s workload, but I wouldn’t avoid him at his current ADP either (RB37).

FACT:

Since 1990, only 7 undrafted running backs have run for 800 yards as a rookie.

What it means:

After the success of James Robinson last season, I’ve seen a few fantasy articles asking – who’s next? Who is the next James Robinson? The answer is probably no one. Aside from Robinson last year, and Phillip Lindsay in 2018, no undrafted rookie has finished as an RB1 since Dominic Rhodes in 2001. There has been some camp hype for Javian Hawkins in Atlanta and to a lesser extent Jaret Patterson in Washington. Patterson is buried on the depth chart and should be avoided in all but the deepest of leagues. Hawkins is the one UDFA who may be worth a dart throw in more standard leagues, but it’s a longshot that he amounts to much this year. There’s no guarantee he beats out Qadree Ollison for the RB2 role. If you take Hawkins in a dynasty league and he does hit as a rookie, you should look to flip him when you’re able. In the last 30 years, only Ryan Grant and Chris Ivory have posted three 800-yard rushing seasons as a UDFA, and no one has posted a 4^th.

FACT:

In the last 5 seasons, the average RB24 has scored 167.4 PPR points. Since 2000, only 5 running backs out of 287 that were drafted in the 4^th round or later topped that point total as a rookie. 4 of them topped 225 PPR points.

What it means:

Drafting a day 3 running back and hoping for anything more than RB3 production is a losing proposition. One silver lining here is that the guys who have succeeded as rookies have hit big, and they’ve had one thing in common that can help identify them. Aside from Mike Anderson (who had injuries to both Terrell Davis and Olandis Gary in front of him) all the running backs who finished with more than 167 PPR points as rookies landed in wide-open backfields that didn’t have prior fantasy success. The four running backs were Domanick Williams, Jordan Howard, Alfred Morris, and Zac Stacy, and not one of them entered their rookie season with a single teammate that had previously finished as even a top-40 fantasy back.

The problem is there aren’t any day 3 backs this year that fit that criteria. The closest to it would be Jake Funk – Darrell Henderson finished as the PPR RB36 last year – but I wouldn’t count on Funk to unseat Henderson. You shouldn’t be jumping ahead of ADP to take Michael Carter, Kenneth Gainwell, or Chuba Hubbard unless an injury (CMC or Miles Sanders) or cut (Tevin Coleman) happens unexpectedly.

FACT:

During Bill Belichick’s tenure as head coach (2000-2020) the Patriots drafted 13 running backs in the NFL Draft. Those players have combined for just 3 seasons as the PPR RB24 or better.

What it means:

The Patriots have been wildly unsuccessful at drafting running backs during the Belichick era. James White has been easily the most successful back they’ve drafted in that time, with one top-10 season and two top-20 seasons in his career. It doesn’t instill much confidence in the long-term outlook for Rhamondre Stevenson. His skill set has been compared to LeGarrette Blount, which is exciting to consider when you remember that Blount scored 18 touchdowns in a season with New England, but the Patriots have a long track record of relying on a committee backfield that makes it hard for anyone to stand out in fantasy without a crooked touchdown total or a crooked reception total. In dynasty leagues, you’d probably be best served by avoiding Stevenson. If you’ve already drafted Stevenson you should look to trade him on the strength of his two-touchdown preseason debut.

That’s all I’ve got for the running back class for now. Hopefully, it helps give you a little clarity on how you should be treating them in your fantasy drafts. I’ll be back with a look at the rookie tight ends and wide receivers soon, but in the meantime feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know if you want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one was a very eventful one for the rookie crop and was a humbling reminder how hard it can be to predict what to expect in the first game for the fantasy rookies. The two rookies I told you to start last week, Najee Harris and Kyle Pitts, both had the kind of volume you look for from a fantasy starter (17 touches for Harris and 8 targets for Pitts), but neither put up the kind of fantasy performance that you hope for. Both should have better days ahead. All five of the first-round rookie QBs scored more points than Aaron Rodgers in week 1, and Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence each put up over 250 passing yards and multiple scores. 

It was a big debut week for all 3 of the top-10 drafted WRs as well, as each topped 60 yards and found the end zone in their respective openers. All 3 were somewhat risky fantasy plays going into the week, but I also talked about the big upside each possessed in this article last week. My three deep-league sleeper WRs for week 1 (Elijah Moore, Dyami Brown, and Kadarius Toney) all managed to somehow put up negative receiving yards on Sunday, but Rondale Moore had a nice debut and Anthony Schwartz was a big surprise for the Browns with Odell Beckham sidelined. 

One of the biggest rookie storylines of the week was the San Francisco 49ers backfield. Trey Sermon was long expected to be the number 2 back in the Bay behind Raheem Mostert, but he was a surprising healthy scratch in week 1 and got to watch from the sideline as Elijah Mitchell rattled off over 100 yards and a score against the Lions. With Mostert sidelined for the season, I’ll get into what to do with the 49ers backs going forward later in this article.

There are a few rookies that were close to non-factors in week 1 that don’t warrant enough consideration for a full blurb about their week 2 outlook. Those players are: 

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Played zero offensive snaps in week 1)

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Zero carries, 2 targets in week 1)

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Maybe number 2 back behind Gibson, but played just 4 offensive snaps)

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Saw 2 carries and 1 target in week 1, now in concussion protocol)

WR Tutu Atwell, LAR (Played just 2 offensive snaps in week 1)

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Targeted just once in 14 offensive snaps week 1)

WR Amari Rodgers, GB (Targeted one time in the 4th quarter of a blowout loss)

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Played just 4 offensive snaps in week 1. Clearly lost WR3 battle with KJ Osborn)

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 2…

Rookies to Start: 

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. LV): Harris’ debut wasn’t quite what fantasy managers who drafted him in the first or second round were hoping for as he totaled fewer than 6 fantasy points against the Bills. On the one hand, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Steelers’ offensive line isn’t great and struggled against a talented defense like Buffalo’s. On the other hand, Najee Harris played 100% of the offensive snaps and handled all the running back touches. That’s the kind of usage you’re looking in a first round fantasy running back. The offensive line should improve with more time playing together, and there will be easier matchups to come, starting as soon as this week with the Raiders. Vegas allowed the 4th-most running back points per game in 2020 and ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. In the opener Monday night they let the combination of Ty’Son Williams, Latavius Murray, and Trenton Cannon put up 98 rushing yards and 2 scores. Najee should be in for a bounce back performance and should be started with confidence.  

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 2: @Jax.): If you look only at their final fantasy production, you’d probably think Melvin Gordon is still the clear lead back in Denver after the veteran posted 118 scrimmage yards and a touchdown Sunday while the rookie ended up with 41 scoreless yards. If you only look at that production, you’d miss that it was Javonte who handled 56% of the RB rushing attempts, and two-thirds of the short down & distance snaps. Gordon padded his stats with a 70-yard touchdown run but at worst this is a 50-50 timeshare for Javonte. At best, he’s the current 1-A to Gordon’s 1-B…and this week they get to go face the Jaguars. The Jaguars allowed the third-most RB points per game last season and allowed the 3rd-most RB points in week 1 as they were publicly undressed by what should be a very bad Texans team. The Broncos should be able to have their way with the Jags, and I expect a much better showing from Javonte in this one. I’d view him as a low-end RB2 who’s a better option in formats that aren’t full PPR. 

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. SF): If you just look at the box score from week 1, you can see that DeVonta Smith had a solid NFL debut. If you look deeper at the numbers, there are even more reasons to be excited about what Smith can do this season. The rookie dominated usage in the Eagles’ passing game. Smith ran a route on 95% of the Eagles dropbacks in week 1, had a 23% target share, and a whopping 55% of the team’s air yards. Despite the talk of how involved the Eagles’ tight ends would be this year, this passing game runs through DeVonta Smith. Smith gets a very favorable week 2 matchup. The 49ers have typically been good against wide receivers over the last couple seasons, but they lost their top corner Jason Verrett for the year last week and may not have Emmanuel Moseley back from injury in time for this game. That leaves them with freshly signed Dre Kirkpatrick and Josh Norman (neither of whom were on a team for training camp), 5th-round rookie Deommodore Lenoir (who held up well in week 1 but faced a Lions’ team that is devoid of WR talent), and Dontae Johnson (who was cut for Josh Norman before being later re-signed). No matter who the matchup, I expect Smith to have a notable advantage. He should be fired up as a WR2 this week. 

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 2: @TB): I may regret listing Pitts here come Monday, but you simply can’t already be benching this guy after a so-so week 1 performance given what he cost to acquire. This matchup isn’t an exciting one. The Falcons struggled to keep Matt Ryan upright last week against the Eagles, allowing pressure on more than 30% of his dropbacks (the 8th-worst mark in week 1). They should have similar issues with the Bucs in week 2. Philly was 2nd in the league last year in pressure rate as a defense, and the Bucs were 3rd (and returned all 11 starters). That pressure could actually play into Pitts’ hands. His average target depth was just 4.8 yards in the opener, and Ryan may need to find him as an outlet in the short part of the field to beat the pass rush. Pitts did have 8 targets in week 1, tied with Calvin Ridley for the team lead and good for a 24% share. He’s going to be heavily involved. The Bucs are not a dominant defense against tight ends. They allowed the 10th-most points per game to the position a year ago and allowed Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz to combine for 9 catches and 65 yards a week ago. If you drafted Pitts, don’t run away from starting him in this matchup. 

Borderline Rookies: 

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 2: vs. Den.): The Jacksonville Jaguars, as a team, had the most embarrassing performance in the NFL in week 1 by getting housed by a Houston Texans team that is expected to be the worst in the NFL. Somehow Trevor Lawrence still finished the week as a QB1. Playing from behind played into his hands in the opener, as he tallied over 330 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. He also threw 3 interceptions, but it was an exciting week, nonetheless. On paper, the Denver Broncos should be a tough matchup. PFF graded their secondary as the best in the NFL entering the season, but they let Daniel Jones throw for over 260 yards and a score against them last week. The Broncos did revamp their secondary in the offseason, so you shouldn’t give too much weight to the fact that they allowed the 10th-most QB points per game a season ago, but there seems to be a defensive issue that has carried over. They struggle to prevent QBs from running the ball, especially near the goal-line. Denver allowed the 5th-most QB rushing yards per game last season, and tied for the most QB rushing scores allowed, and then in week one they let Daniel Jones run for 27 yards and a score. We’re yet to see Trevor Lawrence showcase that part of his game, but he has the capability. He rushed for 766 yards and 17 TDs in his last two seasons at Clemson, and he may get a chance to flash those skills again this week. The Jaguars should be playing from behind and throwing again (they’re a 6-point home underdog), and I like Lawrence’s chances of posting multiple total scores and another top-15 QB finish. 

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Mitchell was certainly the biggest surprise of week one among the rookies, getting the nod as the 49ers RB2 ahead of the higher drafted Trey Sermon, and then putting on a show when his number was called after Raheem Mostert suffered a season-ending injury. Mitchell handled 19 of the 20 running back rushing attempts after Mostert went down and finished the day with a 104-yard performance that included a scintillating 38-yard touchdown run. It was an impressive debut from a player who wasn’t on very many fantasy radars…but will it carry over to week 2? Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained Trey Sermon’s healthy scratch by saying that he just wasn’t one of their top-3 guys out of camp, but I suspect it had something to do with the fact that Sermon doesn’t play special teams. Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty both do. I expect Sermon to be active in week 2, and it remains to be seen which back will post the better fantasy day. Kyle Shanahan has shown a willingness to ride the hot hand in the backfield, regardless of who has it. Since the start of 2020, 6 different running backs have led the team in rushing attempts, with 5 of them handling two-thirds of the HB rushing attempts at least once. Injuries played some part in the musical chairs in this backfield, but this job isn’t going to just be handed to Mitchell. I expect he’ll get first crack to establish the hot hand in week 2 but faces a Philly defense that allowed the 11th-fewest RB points per game in 2020. He’s also unlikely to be very active in the passing game. Mitchell wasn’t targeted once in week 1 and averaged just 1.24 receptions per game over his last 3 college seasons (no more than 1.6 per game in any individual season). I’d shy away from Mitchell in PPR formats and look at him as a risk/reward RB3 option in half- and non-PPR scoring. 

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 2: @Chi.): The pecking order of the Bengals’ WR group was one of the hottest topics of discussion of the offseason, and for at least week 1 the top option of that group appeared to be the rookie Ja’Marr Chase. Chase led the team in route participation and had the highest percentage of targets per route run. He finished with a 5-101-1 line on 7 targets and clearly still knows how to catch a football even without the white stripes on it. The problem for Chase is that this offense has two other very capable receivers who may have better matchups than he does this week. Chase should do most of his work against 2nd-year pro Jaylon Johnson. Johnson had his struggles as a rookie, allowing nearly 9 yards per target and a 107.5 passer rating into his coverage, but his cohorts in this secondary are worse. Marqui Christian and Kindle Vildor are likely to be overmatched by Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, and I look for Joe Burrow to share a little of the wealth with them this week. Chase has the same kind of upside that he did a week ago, but I’d be a little hesitant to go all-in for this week’s matchup. I view him as a WR3 option for week 2. 

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): Like the other two receivers drafted in the top-10 this year, Waddle’s debut was a rousing success. He managed to get in the end zone and finished as the WR27 for the week with 4 catches for 61 yards on 6 targets. Waddle was in a route on 93% of Miami’s dropbacks in week 1, and was targeted on 18% of his routes, but those numbers could both drop with Will Fuller returning from suspension. Waddle spent 75% of his snaps in the slot, but he could leave the field in 2-WR sets with Fuller back. Waddle will match up mostly with Taron Johnson in the slot, who was just an average corner last season, but he allowed just 2 catches on 5 targets into his coverage in week 1 and the Bills allowed the 4th-fewest WR points per game in 2020. With slightly reduced usage, I would be less excited to fire up Waddle this week than I am DeVonta or Chase. 

Rookies to Sit: 

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 2: @NYJ): I was very tempted to list Jones as a sleeper for week 2 but couldn’t bring myself to do it. I just don’t think the Patriots will have to throw enough to make Jones a viable option even in 2 quarterback leagues. The Jets were an awful defense in 2020, allowing the 3rd-most QB points per game, but have just 3 starters that are carry-overs from last year (Quinnen Williams, Bryce Hall, Marcus Maye). I expect them to play better as a unit under the leadership of Robert Saleh, and in week 1 they limited Sam Darnold to just 1 touchdown and a QB17 finish. I’d expect that to be the high end of Jones’ reasonable range of outcomes for week 2 and wouldn’t consider him other than as a low-end QB2 option. 

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. NE): Wilson had a shaky debut in week 1, but he still managed to throw for over 250 yards and a pair of TDs en route to finishing as the QB16 for the week. He should face more of an uphill battle in week 2. The Jets’ o-line allowed the highest pressure rate in the league in week one, and with Mekhi Becton sidelined, Wilson could be under fire even more often in week 2. He was sacked twice in just 13 snaps after Becton was injured in week 1. The Patriots only sacked Tua twice last week and had just the 20th best pressure rate in the league, but I expect Belichick to have some wrinkles ready for the rookie QB this week. There is a narrative that you shouldn’t start rookie QBs against Belichick, and there’s a reason that narrative exists. There have been 31 rookie QBs to make a start against the Belichick Patriots. 15 of them scored fewer than 10 fantasy points, and only 5 of them made it to 18. The absolute best rookie performance against them in that span was put up by Russell Wilson in 2012. Wilson scored 23.42 fantasy points in that game. That score would’ve been good enough for a finish as the QB12 last week. Again, that’s the BEST rookie QB performance EVER against the Belichick Patriots. Wilson isn’t likely to approach it. 

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): The 49ers will likely roll into week 2 with the attitude of ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ at the quarterback position. Jimmy Garoppolo played well in week 1 and should again be at the helm of the offense, with a few designed packages and plays for Lance. The Eagles’ defense erased Matt Ryan and the Falcons in week 1, but they were just a middling QB defense a year ago. Lance’s upside is a possible TD again, which isn’t useful in fantasy when 15 quarterbacks topped 20 points in week 1. 

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): Unless there is a drastic change between now and Sunday, it’ll be Andy Dalton under center for the Bears against the Bengals. You may see Fields mix-in for a few plays again like he did in week 1, but even if he duplicates his performance, one TD with very little other production isn’t going to do you much good in fantasy. If by some chance the Bears made the move to Fields as the starter this week, he’d have sneaky upside as a QB2 against a Bengals’ defense that ranked just 27th in pass defense DVOA in 2020. 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 2: @NYJ): Stevenson’s stellar preseason did not carry over into the regular season as his career began with a resounding thud. The rookie back lost a fumble early on and didn’t see the field again as Damien Harris dominated touches. There have been reports that the Patriots could reduce Harris’ role this week after his own late fumble cost the Patriots the game. It remains to be seen whether that could allow Stevenson to work his way back into the mix, or if 2nd-year pro JJ Taylor will get a shot instead. I’d avoid using Stevenson in any lineups until things work themselves out. Even if he does play a bit, he won’t return much value without a TD. 

RB Larry Roundtree, LAC (Wk. 2: vs. Dal.): Roundtree appears to be the primary backup to Austin Ekeler in this offense, but it’s unclear if there’s any value there is in that role after Ekeler handled 60% of all the Chargers running back touches in week 1 despite not seeing a single target. Ekeler handled half of the snaps in short down & distance situations with Roundtree seeing the other half. On passing downs, it was Justin Jackson splitting the work with Ekeler. Roundtree is probably going to see anywhere from 5-8 carries and zero targets most weeks. If he doesn’t score a TD he isn’t going to give you much value in your lineup. 

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Carter did at least see a handful of touches in the opener, but his usage wasn’t encouraging. Carter’s value comes in his ability as a receiver, and Ty Johnson was on the field for 80% of the long down & distance situations for the Jets. Carter did handle the other 20%, but he was only on the field for 25% of the team’s total snaps. Until that number comes up, there’s no reason to consider him in your lineups. 

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Brown may be the guy who is the most negatively affected by the Ryan Fitzpatrick injury. Brown’s skill set is best utilized on downfield throws, and we’re certainly less likely to see downfield throws from Taylor Heinicke than from FitzMagic. Washington leaned heavily on the running game in the opener. They dialed up a run play on 16 of the 34 plays with Heinicke at QB. I’d look for that to be the strategy going forward. One silver lining is that Terry McLaurin is likely to draw James Bradberry in coverage in week 2. Bradberry’s coverage helped make Courtland Sutton a non-factor in week 1, and he was one of the best coverage corners in the league with a 79.9 coverage grade from PFF in 2020 (7th-best among qualified CBs). If Heinicke shies away from throwing into Bradberry’s coverage, it could mean a few extra looks in Brown’s direction. Unfortunately, I don’t expect them to be the downfield looks that could make him a useful fantasy starter. 

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Moore did not make the splash I expected him to in his debut, finishing with 1 catch for negative-3 yards on 4 targets, but he had some opportunities, and his peripheral numbers were encouraging. Moore’s average target depth was 23 yards downfield, and he was in a route on 85% of the Jets’ dropbacks. Corey Davis is going to be the volume receiver in this offense, and they’re clearly going to look to Moore to try and stretch the field. I’m not sure how many opportunities he’ll get to do that this week. The Patriots were in the top-10 at limiting WR fantasy points a year ago and allowed the 5th-fewest in week 1, and with Mekhi Becton sidelined, the Jets’ o-line might not hold up long enough to let downfield plays develop. Unless the Jets do a better job of getting Moore involved on quick hitting routes, he could have a quiet day again. 

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Marshall was involved more than I expected in week 1, playing 53% of the offensive snaps and drawing 6 targets against the Jets. Those targets were less than 9 yards downfield on average, and Marshall only pulled in 3 of them for 26 scoreless yards. Teammate Robby Anderson posted more than double the fantasy points on half as many targets. I don’t expect Marshall to consistently out-target Anderson, but I do expect both guys to be fighting for what’s left over after Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore get their touches. This week the Panthers face a New Orleans defense that stifled the Packers’ high-powered offense in week one. I wouldn’t want to take a chance on Marshall or Anderson having a breakthrough as the Saints add Bradley Roby into the secondary mix. 

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 2: @Cle.): Collins had a quiet debut after getting a bit of camp buzz this summer for the Texans. He did run as the WR2 in terms of playing time but was targeted on just 10% of his routes. Both Brandin Cooks and Chris Conley were targeted at higher rates. There should be more volume for the Texans passing attack in week 2. They won’t be dominating the scoreboard in this game like they did against the Jaguars, but I’m not quite ready to believe that Tyrod Taylor will continue to play at the level he did in week 1. The Browns should make it a long day for a Texans’ team with an implied total of less than 18 points. Brandin Cooks is the only piece of this offense to consider in week 2. 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 2: @GB): In a game where Jared Goff threw the ball 57 times, St. Brown was targeted on just 6% of his routes. This passing game is clearly going to run through the running backs and TJ Hockenson, and there were no signs in week 1 that ARSB is standing out over his teammates at wide receiver. Kalif Raymond, Trinity Benson, and Quintez Cephus were all targeted at a higher rate than Amon-Ra. Week 1 was a strange game for the Lions, with them falling behind by 28 points and rallying back with some back-ups in the game, so things could change in ARSB’s favor. He still shouldn’t be in your week 2 lineup. 

WR Mike Strachan, IND (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Strachan was involved a bit in the opener, and there has been a lot of buzz about how much the coaching staff loves him, but he still played only 18 snaps, was targeted just twice in week 1, and draws a matchup against a Rams defense that has been among the best in the NFL at limiting WR points since the start of last year. Hard pass. 

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 2: @Was.): After a lot of talk about Toney potentially getting extra opportunity in week one due to the injuries the Giants’ pass catchers were dealing with, he played just 5 offensive snaps and turned 2 targets into 2 catches and negative-2 yards. Steer clear of Toney until his playing time improves. It’s too early to write him off, but there is a chance he turns into Tavon Austin all over again. Jason Garrett just isn’t a creative enough play-caller to maximize Toney’s talents.  

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. LV): Freiermuth had a typical rookie tight end game last week. He played 29 offensive snaps and finished with one catch for 24 yards on one target. Teammate Eric Ebron wasn’t heavily involved either with just 2 targets on 27 snaps. This week’s opponent, the Raiders, were middle of the pack against tight ends last year allowing the 17th most points per game to the position. They limited Mark Andrews to just 3 catches for 20 yards on Monday night. There are better tight end options available than a guy playing half the team snaps in a middling matchup. 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options: 

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. SF): It’s unlikely Gainwell got through your waivers unclaimed this week, but if he did, he’s worth scooping up. While he’s clearly behind Miles Sanders in the Eagles’ backfield, he got nearly half of the short down & distance snaps and 100% of the two-minute offense snaps. Those are the places where RBs can make their fantasy money (at the goal-line and catching passes in a hurry-up offense). The 49ers are coming off a week where they allowed the Lions’ running backs to haul in an absurd 16 receptions, and they’re banged up on the defensive side of the ball. Gainwell excels as a receiver out of the backfield and has a great chance to be a useful flex option in PPR leagues this week. 

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 2: @Phi.): If you read what I wrote about Elijah Mitchell above, you already know why I have Sermon listed here. For season-long leagues, he’s a guy you can probably acquire on the cheap or possibly scoop off the wire if an impatient manager already dropped him. When he doesn’t have a clear-cut standout RB1, Kyle Shanahan likes to ride the hot hand. I expect Mitchell will be the first man up against the Eagles, but Sermon isn’t going to be a healthy scratch again this week and likely gets a chance if Mitchell struggles. As I mentioned with Mitchell, this isn’t a cake matchup. The Eagles ranked 13th in run defense DVOA last season, so it’s possible no one establishes the hot hand. Sermon is still worth going after as a budget alternative to spending all your free agent budget on Mitchell. There’s a reason the 49ers drafted him in the 3rd round and Mitchell in the 6th.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 2: vs. Min.): Moore’s playing time in week one wasn’t quite as extensive as you’d hope for as he played 38% of the team’s offensive snaps, but the ball came his way when he was on the field, and he produced with his opportunities. Moore finished with 4 catches for 68 yards on 5 targets, good for 17 yards per catch despite his average target coming less than 5 yards downfield. Teammate Christian Kirk draws a tough matchup in the slot with Mackensie Alexander this week, and the beauty of the Cardinals’ offense is that they play 4 WRs together with regularity and force the opposing defense into a dime package where their secondary depth is exposed. Moore’s opponent for many of his snaps should be 3rd-year corner Kris Boyd, who allowed a 121.4 passer rating on throws into his coverage last season on 39 targets. DeAndre Hopkins should dominate targets again for the Cardinals, but Moore should have an opportunity to build on what he did in his debut. He’s a sneaky WR3 option in PPR leagues this week, and costs just $4,000 in tournaments on DraftKings. 

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. Hou.): Schwartz was thrust into a big role unexpectedly in week one with Odell Beckham Jr. sidelined, and he made a big impression. Baker Mayfield looked his way downfield on several occasions and he posted a nice day with 69 receiving yards. He finished with an average target depth of just over 25 yards. With Odell already ruled out for week 2, Schwartz could do more of the same. His speed is going to be a matchup nightmare for a Texans secondary that allowed Trevor Lawrence to connect on 5 throws of 20+ yards last week. Not one of Houston’s top-3 corners runs faster than a 4.50 40-yard dash. Schwartz is one of the fastest receivers in the league, running a sub-4.30 at his pro day. The Browns are nearly two-touchdown favorites, so if things go according to plan, they may not be throwing a ton in the second half, but Schwartz has a chance to do damage before things get ugly. There is always a bit of boom-or-bust nature with pure deep threats, but Schwartz has a legit chance to boom and costs just $3,300 on DraftKings. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the part of the season a lot of fantasy managers dread: the bye weeks. The Saints, 49ers, Falcons and Jets all have the week off, so teams may be reaching a little deeper into the player pool for usable options, and there’s a chance that a rookie could help you fill in for a trusted starter like Deebo Samuel or Cordarrelle Patterson. Week 5 was a wild one for the rookie crop. Davis Mills stunned us all by finishing as the QB6 for the week and posting the best fantasy game by a rookie QB against New England of Bill Belichick’s entire run with the Pats. Trevor Lawrence also finished the week as a QB1, while Trey Lance posted a reasonable debut in which he rushed for 89 yards. The rest of the rookie QBs each posted clunkers, none more disappointing than Zach Wilson against the Falcons in London.

Kadarius Toney, Kyle Pitts and Ja’Marr Chase were the stories of the week among the skill position rookies. Toney and Pitts each posted breakout games that landed them at the WR7 and TE3 spots for the week respectively, while Chase kept doing what he’s been doing all season. Ja’Marr has been doing things that only he and Randy Moss have done to start their careers at such a young age. Can these guys keep it up? What other rookies can step up in week 6? You’ve come to the right place to find out.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 6…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Sea.): Harris finally had the kind of breakout rushing game that we’ve been waiting for in week 5, torching what had been a good Denver run defense for 122 yards and a score. The usage continues to be elite (89% of the team RB touches to date), and he gets a tasty matchup in week 6. The Seahawks have allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game so far this season, and Harris has finished as a top-10 back in 4 straight weeks. There’s no need to overthink this one. Harris deserves consideration for the captain spot in showdown lineups for this game.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 6: @Det.): Speaking of not overthinking things, Chase has topped a dozen fantasy points every single week and posted 3 top-15 performances in his first 5 games, and this week he gets to face a Detroit defense that ranks 27^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. Chase’s specialty thus far has been pulling in the deep throws, and it’s an area where Detroit has struggled defensively. He has a league leading four receptions of 40+ yards and his average reception comes 14.2 yards downfield, the 4^th highest mark in the league among qualified receivers. The average air yards per completion against the Lions is 9.15 yards. Every other defense in the league has an average below 8. My only concerns for Chase this week are that the Bengals might not have to throw the ball a lot, and that Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd may get some squeaky wheel treatment after both failed to reach 40 yards last week, but those are minor concerns. This week’s matchup really is perfect for Chase. He’s a top-15 option in Detroit.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Tampa Bay’s defense this year has been the definition of the phrase ‘pass funnel.’ Opposing offenses have abandoned trying to run against the Bucs stout front early in games, dropping back to pass on nearly 71% of their plays (for context, the Bucs have the most pass-heavy offense in the league and drop back to throw on 69.7% of their plays). All of that passing by their opponents has led to some big fantasy days for wide receivers against the Bucs. Tampa has allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game this season and has coughed up at least 275 passing yards to every team they’ve faced so far. For the season, Smith has commanded 23% of the Eagles’ passing targets and 41% of the air yards. One major area the Bucs have struggled is in allowing yards after the catch, and that isn’t an area where DeVonta has shined, but this game still has blow-up potential for the rookie. He should be treated as a WR2 this week and may be worth paying up for in showdown slates for Thursday night.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Jones posted another efficient performance in week 5 that doesn’t light up fantasy box scores. He did throw one interception but completed over 76% of his passes and posted his highest yards per attempt mark of the season at 7.7. He’s now completed over 73% of his passes in 4 of his 5 games and thrown for 270+ yards in 3 of them. This week he faces a Dallas defense that has spent a lot of time playing with the lead and has coughed up a lot of passing yards as a result. The Giants were the first team all season to not throw for 300 yards against them…finishing with 294. They’ve given up crooked yardage totals each and every week, but also have 2 interceptions each and every week. It’s created an odd situation where they rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA but have allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game. Jones, like most QBs the Cowboys have faced, will likely have to throw a lot to keep pace. If he can avoid the turnovers that have plagued other QBs to face Dallas, he should finish as a strong QB2 this week.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. GB): With news breaking that Damien Williams was added to the Covid reserve list on Thursday, Herbert suddenly finds himself positioned for a strong opportunity against Green Bay this week. Tarik Cohen isn’t walking through that door any time soon for Chicago, so Herbert likely will play a workhorse role with Ryan Nall mixing in on occasion. Green Bay is a burnable run defense, ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA. They’ve been able to mask that issue with positive game scripts that keep their opponents throwing, but with Bill Lazor calling plays the Bears have had at least 16 RB rush attempts in 8 of 9 games, and 25+ attempts in 6 of 9 since the start of last season. I don’t expect them to put this game on Justin Fields’ shoulders. Herbert’s not much of a pass catcher, but he’s a virtual lock for 15+ carries in a solid matchup. He’s a low-end RB2 this week.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LV): Melvin Gordon had a new ailment pop up on the injury report this week, now dealing with a hip injury in addition to a leg contusion he was dealing with last week, but there’s no reason to think he’s going to miss this game. That likely means he and Williams will continue to split the backfield work evenly, making both uninspiring flex options that you hope get into the end zone. The Raiders do allow the 9^th-most RB points per game, and Williams has been the more impressive Denver back over the past couple weeks, so Williams is at least in play. He could be a very strong option if Denver is able to play from ahead, but it’s worth noting that since 2010 interim head coaches who take over in-season are 13-9 in their first game at the helm. That may not sound like a great winning percentage, but keep in mind that most of those teams were far below .500 for the season. There is a noticeable boost in that first game. Treat Javonte as an RB3 who has a reasonable floor in any case, and RB2 upside this week if the game script is in Denver’s favor.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 6: @Jax.): The expected return of Tua Tagovailoa should be a positive development for Waddle this week. Waddle’s season-high receiving mark of 61 yards was set in his only full game with Tua at QB, and that was the only game where he found the end zone as well. With Brissett under center, Waddle’s aDOT was around 4 yards, limiting the damage he could do without big volume. That mark was at 9.8 yards in week 1. It’s a small sample, but Tua showed a willingness to throw down the field that week that we just haven’t seen from Brissett. The matchup is a good one this week. Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and DeVante Parker may be sidelined again. That could add up to a lot of volume for Waddle. If Tua doesn’t return this week, treat the rookie as a dicey PPR flex option. If he does, I really like Waddle’s chances to top 60 yards for the second time this year and finish as a WR3 or better.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): Toney broke out in a big way in week 5, piling up 10 catches and 189 yards on 13 targets with most of New York’s other pass catchers sidelined. It was the kind of performance where you can’t put the genie back in the bottle. Toney, long mocked as a terrible 1^st-round pick by GM Dave Gettleman & the Giants, showed that he’s too good to be sent back to the bench. It remains to be seen how the Giants will divvy up the WR opportunities as the rest of the WRs return, but Toney is going to be involved. This week, the Giants may get Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton back, so I wouldn’t look for Toney to be targeted 13 times again. He also may have to tangle with Jalen Ramsey a bunch in this one, and his starting QB is likely to be Mike Glennon. With the bye weeks hitting, Toney could be considered for a WR3 spot in lineups despite those things working against him, but you should come away happy if he gives you a repeat of what he did two weeks ago (6 catches for 78 yards).

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 6: @Cle.): The Cardinals flashed some creativity with Moore last week, getting him 3 rushing attempts to go along with his 6 targets, and Rondale posted his best game since week 2. He still hasn’t played more than 50% of the offensive snaps in any game though, and that additional usage last week could’ve been to help lighten the load on banged up running back Chase Edmonds. Moore may see his snaps increase if the Cards opt to play more 4-WR sets with TE Maxx Williams now out for the year, and speed has burned the Browns secondary this season. Two of the top-3 WR performances against them this year were by Tyreek Hill and Brandin Cooks, and Moore fits a similar size/speed mold. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 this week in Cleveland.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Mia.): Lawrence has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks after piling up turnovers in his first 3 starts, but he’s not seeing enough volume to be trusted as an auto-start in 2-QB leagues. He threw the ball 51 times in the opener as Jacksonville chased points against the Texans, but he’s attempted fewer than 35 passes in every game since and averaged just 204 passing yards per game in those contests. He’s padded his fantasy production with rushing scores in each of the past two weeks, but those are hard to rely on. Miami isn’t the type of team that I’d expect to blow the Jaguars out, so I’d expect Lawrence’s volume to be modest again. The Dolphins haven’t been a good defense against QBs, allowing the 6^th-most points per game to the position, but only Tom Brady (QB3) and Derek Carr (QB11) have finished higher than the QB20 against Miami in any individual game. I’d treat Lawrence as a low-end QB2 for fantasy this week.

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Through his first 3 NFL starts, Justin Fields has averaged just 19 passing attempts and 144 passing yards per game. He’s thrown just 1 total touchdown and run for 25 total yards. Those aren’t the kind of numbers you can trust in a fantasy lineup, even though there are things working in his favor this week. The Bears are a 4.5-point underdog, so it’s likely that Fields will have to throw more than we’ve seen in the last 3 weeks, and the Packers are still without top cover man Jaire Alexander. They allowed 20 fantasy points to Joe Burrow last week in their first game without Alexander. It wouldn’t shock me if Fields posts his best fantasy day of the year, but if he’s not going to use his legs and give you a rushing floor, you can’t count on getting enough points from his arm to warrant starting him.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Christian McCaffrey’s absence seems almost certain to end this week, which means Hubbard goes back to handcuff status. There’s a chance the Panthers don’t give CMC a full workload the first game back out there, but I wouldn’t want to start Chuba in a part time role, even against a suspect Vikings defense. Minnesota has allowed the 12^th-most RB points per game and rank 20^th in run defense DVOA. They’re a good matchup for running backs, but not a great one. If CMC is held out another week, treat Hubbard like a borderline RB2/RB3.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): I only mention Felton at all because Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb aren’t practicing as of Thursday. If by some chance both players sit, I’d expect D’Ernest Johnson to handle the bulk of the backfield work, with Felton mixing in on passing downs. The Cardinals have allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game, and fewer than 5 receptions per game to the position. I’d have a hard time convincing myself to get Felton into lineups anywhere unless I were desperate, even if both starters are out.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Stevenson went from being a healthy scratch 3 weeks in a row to handling 11 carries in week 5. He didn’t do much with them, logging just 23 yards. One positive to take away for Stevenson is that he, unlike his teammate Damien Harris, did not fumble the ball away at the 1-yard line last week. It was the second fumble of the year at a critical moment by Harris, and there is no way Belichick allows him to continue to get those kinds of carries if that continues to happen. Harris was dealing with chest & rib injuries in that game that may have contributed to Rhamondre’s playing time, but he seems unlikely to miss week 6 despite not practicing Wednesday. It was reported by Ian Rapoport after the game that Harris “checked out ok.” If Harris is active, Stevenson is a bad option against a Dallas defense that has allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA. Devontae Booker is the only running back all year to get into the end zone against them. If Harris is inactive, I would view Rhamondre as more of a desperation flex play in non-PPR leagues. The Patriots should be chasing points against an explosive Dallas offense, so this shapes up to be a Brandon Bolden week.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 6: @Bal.): After logging 11 carries in week 4, Rountree didn’t play a single offensive snap in week 5. There were no reports of any injury or disciplinary reasons he was sidelined, so it appears that he’s simply lost the backup job to Joshua Kelley for the time being. There’s no reason to hold him as a handcuff in deeper leagues right now.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 6: @Det.): Evans did see a season-high number of snaps in week 5 with Joe Mixon on a snap count due to injury, but that amounted to just 7 snaps for the rookie. You can’t start him in any weeks where Mixon is active, no matter how deep the league.

RB Gary Brightwell, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): I mention Brightwell because Saquon Barkley is expected to be sidelined for at least 1 week, possibly longer. That doesn’t mean Brightwell is worth stashing. He’s arguably still 3^rd on the backfield depth chart behind Devontae Booker and Elijhaa Penny. Leave him on the waiver wire.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): I’ve mentioned Bateman as a stash each of the last two weeks, so hopefully you’ve already gone ahead and stashed him. If he’s still available in your league, he’s still worth picking up, but this is not a great week to expect a strong debut. The Chargers have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game and rank 11^th in pass defense DVOA. Bateman still costs the minimum on DraftKings, so if you want to live dangerously in a limited slate DFS tournament, feel free to roll the dice. It’s not something I would do though. I expect he’ll be eased back and faces a tough defense in his first game back.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Even if he’s active this week, Nico’s unlikely to be useful for fantasy purposes. I’d expect Houston to ease him back in after he missed the last 3 weeks with injury, and he only played 55% of the offensive snaps and was targeted just 3 times in the 1 full game he did play. Chris Moore played well enough last week that he deserves to continue seeing snaps, and those snaps aren’t coming from Brandin Cooks. The Colts are a plus matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 8^th-most points per game to the position, but Collins shouldn’t be put into lineups against them this week.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Marshall has reached 30 receiving yards just once all season despite playing more than half the offensive snaps each week. Minnesota is ranked an impressive 6^th in pass defense DVOA. This isn’t the week to expect Marshall to get on track.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 6: @Bal.): Palmer saw a season-high 3 targets in week 5, but he’s yet to play more than 25% of the offensive snaps in a game. He’s not on the fantasy radar right now.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Sea.): Freiermuth and Eric Ebron continue to split the tight work in the Steelers’ offense, minimizing the chance for either player to be useful for fantasy right now. Big Ben is targeting the position on less than 15% of his attempts, and the Freiermuth/Ebron duo has combined for just 4 red zone targets in 5 games. The Seahawks are hardly a formidable defensive matchup, but Freiermuth isn’t seeing consistent enough usage to be trusted as a TE streamer right now. He’s been targeted 3 times in the last 2 weeks.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Tremble has found the end zone in 2 of the last 3 weeks, but he’s yet to play 40% of the offensive snaps in any game this season and has seen more than 1 target in a game just once. The Vikings have allowed the 10^th-fewest TE points per game and allowed zero touchdowns to the position. Steer clear of Tremble.

Rookies on bye in week 6: QB Trey Lance, SF, QB Zach Wilson, NYJ, RB Elijah Mitchell, SF, RB Trey Sermon, SF, RB Michael Carter, NYJ, WR Elijah Moore, NYJ, TE Kyle Pitts, ATL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 6: @Ind.): You’re probably playing with fire if you play Mills in fantasy lineups the week after he put up what may end up being his best performance of the season, but he’s in a sneaky spot to have another strong game in week 6. The Colts have allowed the 3^rd-most QB points per game and rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed multiple TD passes to every quarterback they’ve faced so far. No team has allowed a higher passer rating than the Colts, and they may be without standout corner Xavier Rhodes in this game as he’s in the concussion protocol. The Texans may have Nico Collins back as well, giving Mills another weapon to work with. It’ll take some cojones to start Mills; he’s a risky play, but one that could pay off. I wouldn’t start him in 1-QB leagues, but he’s an upside QB2 option this week. I’d be ringing the bell for him a lot harder if there were more prominent QBs on bye this week.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. TB): It’s been hard to rely on anything when it comes to the Philadelphia Eagles’ backfield usage so far this season, but this is a nice spot for Gainwell. The Bucs have stifled opposing rushers, allowing fewer than 40 yards on the ground per game, but have allowed the most RB receptions per game and 4^th most RB receiving yards in the league. Gainwell has shared the receiving work with Miles Sanders, but if Philly falls in a hole expect to see a lot of Gainwell. He’s played 93% of the 2-minute offense snaps and has been targeted on more than a quarter of his routes run. If he’s on the field as much as I expect, 5+ receptions seem likely.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): St. Brown has emerged over the last two weeks as the most-targeted option in the Lions’ WR room, and the injury to Quintez Cephus last week should strengthen his hold on that role going forward. This week he faces off with the Bengals, who allow the 15^th-most WR points per game. He spends the vast majority of his time in the slot, where he’ll face off with Bengals’ slot corner Mike Hilton. Hilton has allowed a 76% completion percentage and 103.5 passer rating on throws into his coverage. No wide receiver is truly trustworthy in this offense, but St. Brown is in play in PPR leagues as a WR3/Flex option in this one.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 6: vs. KC): If there was ever a time for Brown to get on track, this is it. His early season usage before getting hurt in week 4 left a lot to be desired, but this offense is missing Logan Thomas, Curtis Samuel, and Cam Sims this week, and Brown seems to be on track to return to the lineup. Brown’s targets have been of the downfield variety (14.2-yard aDOT for the season), but those downfield throws haven’t connected. This week he faces off with a Kansas City defense that has allowed a league-high eight 40-yard completions and is coming off a week where they coughed up several deep balls to the Bills. Washington is a touchdown underdog, so passing volume should be plentiful. Brown’s deep ball skills in this matchup make him a quality dart throw in DFS tournaments at just $3,300 on DraftKings. He’s probably not trustworthy enough to use in season-long leagues unless you’re desperate.

TE Kylen Granson, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Hou.): Granson isn’t someone you should be running out to add in season-long leagues. He played just 8 snaps on Monday Night Football against the Ravens in week 6 after seeing 30 snaps the week before. The notable thing here is that he out-targeted Jack Doyle in both games despite playing many fewer snaps this past week. The Colts looked to get the ball into Granson’s hands when he was on the field, and Frank Reich isn’t afraid to use a lot of 2-tight end sets. Houston allows more tight end points per game than any other team in the league and has allowed scores to backups Tommy Tremble & Chris Manhertz, and 40+ receiving yards to James O’Shaughnessy & Harrison Bryant. Granson costs just $800 for the showdown slate on DraftKings, and I have a hunch he surprises in this one.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report and Happy Turkey Day! Hopefully your teams are well positioned for the final playoff push with just 3 weeks remaining before the fantasy playoffs. Week 11 felt like a return to fantasy normalcy after a tumultuous and unpredictable few weeks before it. We still saw a couple big upsets (Texans over the Titans, Colts over the Bills), but for the most part the good fantasy players performed well in week 11, and the rookies were no exception. Ja’Marr Chase and Najee Harris each got back into the end zone after failing to do so in their previous games. DeVonta Smith topped 60 yards for the 3^rd straight game, Elijah Moore topped 10 PPR points for the 5^th straight, and the trio of Kadarius Toney, Jaylen Waddle, and Rondale Moore each had a reception bonanza despite minimal yardage. The rookies should have plenty more in store for us in week 12.

I’m going to try something a little different with the Rookie Report this week. Every week I try to touch on every fantasy relevant rookie, but realistically you don’t need several sentences to tell you not to start Larry Rountree III in your lineups. With that in mind, I’m going to have two brief sections on rookies you already know to start, and rookies you already know to sit, with just a brief stat about each. I’m going to split the ‘Borderline Rookies’ section into guys that I’d lean toward starting, and guys that I’d lean toward sitting, and will finish as always with the ‘Deep League Sleepers.’ Hopefully you find this format a little more useful going forward.

The same usual notes still apply – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all mentions of points per game and points allowed are in half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 12…

Rookies you Already Know you Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Harris’ lightest workload since week 2 still resulted in 17 touches and an RB12 finish last weekend. The Bengals have allowed the 9^th-most points per game to opposing backs.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Chase earned his second-lowest target total of the season in the first go-round with the Steelers but finished that game with a 20-point fantasy day. Chase’s overall production has been a little lower in his last 3 games, but he’s still cleared 10 fantasy points in all but one game this season.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): Since Tua’s return from injury in week 6, Waddle has garnered 8+ targets in 5 of 6 games, 7+ receptions in 4 of 6, and 60+ yards in 5 of 6. He’s been the PPR WR17 in points per game in that span. The Panthers have allowed the 4^th-fewest WR points per game this season, so I could see being hesitant to get him in the lineup in non-PPR formats, but don’t let the Panthers scare you off in full PPR (and probably not in half-PPR either).

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Please note that I only suggest starting Jones in superflex formats or leagues deeper than 12 teams, but this is a week where he has more upside than usual. The Colts and Texans are the only teams all year to fall short of 270 passing yards against the Titans this season, and this game should have the least favorable game script the Patriots have faced in the last few weeks after 3 straight easy wins. Jones has averaged just 22 pass attempts per game in the last 3 weeks after throwing 30+ times in 7 of his first 8 games. I expect Jones to get back to 30+ attempts in this game, and assuming he’s his usual, efficient self with those attempts, he’s going to likely finish as a high-end QB2.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): Ahead of Denver’s week 11 bye, Javonte played more snaps in a game than teammate Melvin Gordon for just the 2^nd time all season. While I doubt it’s a true changing of the guard, it would be wise for Denver to give Williams more playing time down the stretch as they take their last swings at staying in the playoff chase. Williams has consistently looked like the better back. Week 12 brings one of the best matchups of the season for this backfield. The Chargers have allowed the 4^th-most running back points per game, and rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Even with a split workload, this is a great opportunity for Javonte to post a top-20 performance. If his edge in playing time over Gordon continues, he could push even higher. You may have more trustworthy options than Williams on your roster, but this is a week where Javonte should have one of his best performances of the season.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 12: @NYG): Smith has continued to produce at a high level over the last 3 weeks even though the Eagles have transitioned to being a run-heavy football team, but his margin for error is smaller in the current version of the offense. Jalen Hurts has attempted just 21 passes per game in the last 3 weeks, but each week 6 of those attempts have gone in Smith’s direction, and he’s been efficient with those targets. Smith has scored 3 TDs in that span and posted 3 of his 4 best single-game yards per target marks of the season. Can he continue to turn limited volume into fantasy gold this week? I wouldn’t consider it automatic, but the matchup isn’t one to be afraid of. The Giants have allowed the 12^th-most WR points per game, and shadow corner James Bradberry hasn’t been the same player in 2021 that he was in 2020. Bradberry is allowing the highest marks he’s allowed on throws into his coverage in passer rating, yards per target, and yards per completion since his rookie year in 2018, and he’s seen his PFF coverage grade drop from 79.9 in 2020 to 64.8 in 2021. He still isn’t a complete pushover, so I wouldn’t pencil in a 5-60-1 line for the rookie just yet, but there aren’t many receivers you’d be considering around Smith’s range that have the kind of ceiling he does.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): The return of Lamar Jackson should mean good things for Bateman. The rookie had averaged 70 receiving yards on nearly 5 catches per game in the last 3 games he played with Lamar before putting up a dud with Tyler Huntley under center in week 11. The Browns have allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game and have allowed 10+ fantasy points to 10 different receivers in the last 6 games. If Marquise Brown is out again, Bateman will likely tangle mostly with Browns’ top corner Denzel Ward, but I’d expect the bump in volume that would come along with Brown’s absence to offset the tougher individual matchup. Bateman is a reasonable WR3 option in all formats.

WR Kadarius Toney, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Phi.): Toney finally looked to be fully healthy on Monday night against the Bucs, and the Giants made an aggressive effort to get him the football, targeting him on more than a third of his offensive snaps. All of those targets resulted in just 40 yards on 7 catches, but he gets a matchup favorable to his skill set this week. The Eagles play a lot of Cover 2 zone defense, which should leave a lot of holes for Toney to settle into underneath the deep safeties. Philly also allows the 14^th-most yards after catch, which means Toney could have some success piling up extra yards with the ball in his hands. If Toney is used the same way he was last week, I think a dozen or more fantasy points are in the offing for him. The biggest wild card here is what kind of offensive changes Freddie Kitchens will implement in his first week as interim OC. Kitchens’ one full season in charge of Cleveland’s play-calling included more than 8 targets per game for Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., so he knows to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Toney is the best playmaker the Giants have at wide receiver.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 12: @Jax.): It’s getting harder each week to trust Pitts in your lineups with each dud he posts, but I urge you to ride with the rookie for another week. It’s been more than 4 weeks since the last time Pitts scored more than 10 PPR points, but I’m confident he’s going to get there this week. The Jaguars have allowed just the 12^th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, but that number is worse than it looks. They’ve only faced 4 tight ends all season that rank in the top-20 in PPR points per game, and all 4 of them scored at least 13 points against Jacksonville. I fully expect Pitts to make it 5 out of 5.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Freiermuth played his lowest snap share since week 5 on Sunday night, but he still saw 7 targets come his way and scored a touchdown again. He now has at least 6 targets and 4 catches in 5 straight games and has gotten into the end zone 4 times in that span. The player who was taking his snaps in week 11, Eric Ebron, is expected to need knee surgery and is out for the foreseeable future. That means the rookie should go back up to a 70%+ snap share going forward. Freiermuth’s week 12 opponents, the Bengals, have given up a tight end touchdown in each of the last 3 games, and Muth himself got in the end zone against them in week 3. Freiermuth looks like a low-end top-10 play this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 12: vs. Atl.): A matchup against the defense allowing the 3^rd-most QB points per game is enough to get any QB consideration in 2-QB leagues, but this Jacksonville offense hasn’t shown enough life to trust Lawrence even in this prime spot. The Jaguars as a team have scored just 36 total points in the last 3 weeks. Trevor has accounted for more than 1 touchdown in just one of his last 9 games and has accounted for zero total touchdowns in the last 3 games combined. His best hope for fantasy production may be his legs. The Falcons have allowed 5 different QBs to run for over 25 yards, and two of them to run for over 60. Lawrence has rushed for 20+ yards 6 times this year. At the end of the day, starting Lawrence as your QB2 means you’re betting on him to post his best game in over a month. An inviting matchup isn’t enough to get me to make that bet.

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): You might look at the opponent next to Wilson’s name and be tempted to consider him as a streamer in 2-QB leagues this week, but I’d caution against that. It’s true the Texans allowed 17+ QB points in 7 of their first 8 games and 20+ in 5 of them, but Wilson hasn’t shown that he can take advantage of a matchup like this yet and his floor is very low. Wilson failed to record a touchdown in 3 of the 5 full games he’s played, and you’re playing with fire if you’re counting on a big performance after a 5-week layoff. He’ll be shaking off the rust in this one, and while he may be able to lead his team to a win against the Texans, he’s less likely to lead your fantasy team to the same.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): If Mitchell can play this week, this isn’t a terrible spot to fire him up as a flex play, but it’s not a great one either. The 49ers offense has looked the best it’s looked all season in the last few weeks, and they face a Minnesota defense that ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 11^th-most running back points per game. On paper, it looks like a great spot to play a starting running back in a run-first offense. The question is whether Mitchell will see a full starting running back workload. Mitchell played his lowest snap share of the season week 10 in Jeff Wilson Jr.’s first game back from IR, and the 49ers have utilized Deebo Samuel out of the backfield frequently in the last two weeks. Add in that Mitchell is still nursing that finger injury, and it’s easy to see him playing a smaller role than usual. When you also consider that he isn’t used as a pass-catcher, the potential path to a dud performance in this smash spot gets clearer. You could do worse than Mitchell in your lineups, but there’s more risk here than you’d think. Keep on eye on the injury updates from the 49ers if you’re considering using Mitchell.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): I love what we’ve seen out of Stevenson in recent weeks, but he’s in a full-fledged committee with Damien Harris and Brandon Bolden right now, and the Titans have allowed the 4^th-fewest running back points per game. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the rookie post another impressive game, but he’s likely going to be doing so from my bench unless I have limited options. Stevenson has handled at least a dozen touches and posted 70+ scrimmage yards in 3 straight games, but Damien Harris missed most of 2 of those games, and the other was a blowout win over the Falcons. I’m not counting on another 70-yard day on a dozen touches.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): It will certainly feel counterintuitive to sit Moore given the production he’s put up in recent weeks, but it might be the right play with Zach Wilson getting the start for the Jets. Moore has been targeted at least 6 times in each of the last 5 games. He found the end zone in 4 of them, and topped 60 receiving yards in the other, but Zach Wilson started only one of those games, and he was injured and replaced by Mike White in the first half of it. Moore has totaled just 98 scrimmage yards and 1 TD in the 5 games he’s played that Wilson started. That could turn around going forward. Wilson was drafted 2^nd overall for a reason, and Moore has clearly carved out a big role in this offense, but their shaky connection has me worried for week 12. Houston isn’t an imposing matchup. The Texans allow the 9^th-most WR points per game. Moore is very much in play as a WR3 again this week, but I wouldn’t be plugging him in over other strong options this week.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Bates isn’t a guy I would usually give much consideration to, but he played an eye-popping 99% of Washington’s offensive snaps in week 11. He turned all of that playing time into just 3 catches for 23 yards. Logan Thomas did have his practice window opened to return from IR, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be active in week 12. If Thomas sits, Bates is no more than a desperation plug-in this week.

Rookies you Already Know you Should Sit:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): Andy Dalton is getting the start on Turkey Day.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Sermon handled 10 carries and 1 target last Sunday while splitting the backfield with Jeff Wilson Jr. in Elijah Mitchell’s absence. The 49ers opened up a 21-3 lead before Sermon got his 2^nd touch of the game. His work was mostly in garbage time, and Mitchell is expected back this week.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): There is a little upside for Patterson this week against a Seattle defense that has allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game and ranks 25^th in run defense DVOA, but this feels like a JD McKissic week where the Football Team may be chasing points in a get-right game for Seattle’s offense. Patterson has carried the ball 22 times in the last 3 games, but he’s played just 34 offensive snaps. If you think Washington wins this week, Patterson has more upside than I’m giving him credit for.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 12: @Den.): The Chargers have played musical chairs with their RB2 spot this season, but Rountree hasn’t rushed for more than 11 yards since week 4.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): In Cam Newton’s first start this season, Hubbard went from change-of-pace back to complete afterthought, playing just one offensive snap. I don’t know if CMC played a higher snap share because he’s a week healthier, or if it was because there were fewer total plays as they played a slower tempo with Cam under center (Panthers ran 51 offensive plays in week 11 after running 75 in week 10). Either way, Hubbard isn’t going to play much this week unless it’s a blowout win.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): Since the return of David Montgomery two weeks ago, Herbert has played just 17 offensive snaps and touched the ball 5 times.

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): In the two games where Jefferson found the end zone, he played a total of just 14 snaps, and Jamaal Williams missed both games. He’s yet to play an offensive snap in a game that Jamaal Williams was active for.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Samaje Perine has stolen Evans’ pass-catching role behind Joe Mixon, and it was already a small role to begin with.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Felton has handled more than 3 touches in just one game, and both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were inactive for it. Both should be active this week.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): If you missed the news, Carter is out a couple weeks with injury.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. NYJ): Over the last 5 games since his return from IR, Collins has seen the following target totals: 6, 5, 4, 3, and 2. He’s still been on the field for over 50% of the offensive snaps each week, but that’s not a trend you want to chase this week, even against a Jets’ defense that is vulnerable pretty much everywhere.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): Much as I expected, the change to Cam Newton didn’t turn things around for Marshall. WR Brandon Zylstra has played nearly double the snaps that Marshall has in the last 2 weeks, and Terrace has just 3 catch-less targets in those games.

WRs Dax Milne & Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): This duo has played fewer combined snaps than Adam Humphries has seen in each of the last two weeks.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Schwartz missed last week’s game with a concussion suffered against the Patriots in week 10 and looks likely to miss this week as well. He’s posted fewer scrimmage yards in the last 10 weeks combined than he did in week 1.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): I think there are some spike weeks coming for Tremble, but I’m not ready to bank on this being one of them. It took just 2 targets from Cam Newton for Tremble to post his best yardage day of the season last week, but 2 or 3 targets aren’t likely to get it done against a Miami defense that has only allowed Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and Mo-Alie Cox to reach 10 fantasy points against them at tight end.

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. NYJ): Jordan is starting to get more regular playing time, but not enough that he’s a realistic lineup consideration. He’s totaled 6 catches for 57 yards and a score in the 3 games he’s been active for.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 12: @NYG): Gainwell has kind of been the forgotten man in Philly’s backfield in the last couple weeks. He was a healthy scratch in week 11, but he’s going to be active this week after an injury to Jordan Howard, and I like his chances to be a factor. Gainwell is the most skilled receiving back of the Eagles’ trio, and the Giants allow the 6^th-most running back receiving yards per game. Two of Gainwell’s 3 biggest fantasy days came against the defenses allowing the 5^th and 7^th-most RB receiving yards per game. He hasn’t faced any other teams in the top 8. Gainwell is obviously a risky play given how little he’s been involved in recent weeks, but he costs less than half what Boston Scott does on DraftKings for showdown contests, and I like his odds to outproduce his teammate in this one.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): I didn’t think it was possible to believe this, but Detroit’s pass catchers have to be relieved to see Jared Goff is slated to return this week after the performance from Tim Boyle last Sunday. ARSB pulled in all 4 of his targets for just 18 yards. That represented 23.3% of Boyle’s total passing yardage. This week St. Brown gets to face a Bears’ defense that allowed him to post 6 catches for 70 yards in their first meeting, and the Chicago secondary has gone downhill since then. ARSB’s most frequent matchup will be with Chicago slot corner Duke Shelley. Shelley has allowed 9 yards per target and a completion percentage of over 77% on throws into his coverage. I wouldn’t be eager to get any Lion WRs into my season-long lineups, but if you’re looking for a Detroit receiver to target in Thanksgiving DFS contests, Amon-Ra is my favorite option this week.

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 12: @NE): Fitzpatrick has been quite the redemption story in recent weeks. He was a 4^th-round pick last spring but failed to make the Titans’ roster out of training camp, and instead was relegated to the practice squad. He’s worked his way back up to the active roster, and now finds himself in a prominent role in the offense as we head into week 12. Julio Jones and Marcus Johnson are both on injured reserve, and AJ Brown is battling a couple injuries suffered last Sunday. Fitzpatrick stepped in admirably, earning 6 targets and scoring his first career touchdown against the Texans. He’s likely to avoid New England’s top cover corner JC Jackson whether AJ Brown plays or not, and he could be in line for another 6+ targets. He’s an intriguing cheap DFS play and should be rostered in most dynasty formats.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 12: @Was.): This one is a pure hunch, and one that shouldn’t be tried in any high-stakes contests, but I really like Seattle’s chances to get the offense back on track this week against a Washington defense that ranks 31^st in defense DVOA, ahead of only the Jets. Of course, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Alex Collins are the most likely beneficiaries if that happens, but this feels like the right week to dial up a couple shot plays for Eskridge on a big stage Monday night. He’ll likely cost close to the minimum for Monday Night showdown slate contests.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Be aware of which of your players have a game on Thursday, and make sure you don’t miss out on getting them into your lineup because you were in a turkey coma. Also keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.