Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

20 Fantasy Points per Game

Todd Gurley's monster game in Seattle on Sunday brought his season average up to 20 points per game. There are only 3 active players who average more points per game than Gurley, all of them top end QBs. Ezekiel Elliott is the only non-QB even in Gurley's neighborhood, and he finally returns this week (against the Seahawks, to boot). I do, however, expect Gurley to be on a lot more championship teams than Elliott. The torch in the NFC West has been passed, though maybe not passed so much as ripped from Seattle's grasp with Gurley's 4 touchdowns. In a year where the MVP debate seems to have someone drop out every week, Gurley is looking like the best non-Brady pick of the leftovers.

74-14 Over Two Games

The Jaguars exploded on to the 2017 season in Week 1 by laying a 29-7 whooping on the Texans and announcing their arrival. They completed the season sweep of the Texans this week, this time by a score of 45-7 and clinched their first playoff berth since 2007. The Jaguars scored six touchdowns, and not a single one of them were on your fantasy team. A pair of them from Jaydon Mickens and Tommy Bohannon led the way for Blake Bortles to continue his excellent fantasy streak since Week 12. There will be some waiver pickups this week available from the Jaguars - their matchup against the 49ers looks good, so Keelan Cole will be a guy to check out this week.

4 Passing Touchdowns

A pair of NFC QBs threw four passing TDs each on Sunday, both leading their team to wins while overcoming halftime deficits. Cam Newton was unimpressed with Aaron Rodgers' return, outperforming him at nearly every turn. Newton had no picks to Rodgers' three - his first time doing this since 2009. The Panthers strengthened their playoff resume, with Greg Olsen announcing he's returned, and Christian McCaffrey continuing to roll along, just 26 yards shy of 1000 yards from scrimmage for the year. Nick Foles also threw 4 TDs, though he's in a much different situation than Newton. Foles is taking over for Carson Wentz and had quite a good showing on his first start. He keeps the Eagles in as the #1 seed in the NFC and has a great matchup for Week 16 at home against the Raiders.

5-0 As A Starter

Well, it looks like the 49ers definitely are happy with their choice of QB, as the Jimmy Garappolo era has begun. He's now 3-0 as the 49ers starter (he was 2-0 last year for the Patriots) and has spawned memes with 49ers GM John Lynch. Jimmy G threw for a career high 381 yards on Sunday, but still hasn't surpassed 1 TD in a game this season. This week his matchup against Jacksonville keeps him from being on the streaming radar, but the future is bright for the 49ers and their new QB. Perhaps the biggest fantasy impact on the 49ers is Robbie Gould, who's made 15 field goals in the last 3 weeks. He's responsible for 48 of the team's 66 points in their last three wins. An honorable mention also goes to Marquise Goodwin, who had 10 catches for 114 yards this week.

100+ Receptions 5 Years in a Row

This week's MVP candidate to go down is Antonio Brown. He'll be back for the playoffs, but won't return during the regular season. Before going down, Brown was able to go over 100 catches for his fifth straight season, the first player in league history to do this. The rest of the Steelers delivered on your fantasy hopes, despite the outcome of the game. On the other side, Gronk smashed, Brady led a last minute comeback, and the Patriots won again. Ho hum...I'm getting so sick of the Patriots. I figured the Steelers would have a chance to take them down, but if the AFC Championship game is in Foxboro, then it's going to be a tough road. Perhaps the Jaguars and their league leading 51 sacks can get the job done. The Dolphins gave the league a blueprint for beating the Pats, someone please make it happen in the playoffs this year.

The rumor mill kicks into high gear in the NFL off-season, and one of the biggest items on the agenda this year was whether or not Blake Bortles would remain the starting quarterback of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Bortles has only played 4 full seasons in the NFL and enjoyed a very successful 2015 (4,428 yards, 35/18 TD/INT ratio), but his productivity dropped in 2016 and his role as a game manager in 2017 didn't (for the most part) allow for many big offensive opportunities to be channeled through the QB position. 

Jaguars are giving QB Blake Bortles a new three-year, $54 million deal, worth up to $66.5M with incentives, that includes $26.5M guaranteed, tying him to Jacksonville through the 2020 season, per source.

Jacksonville out of QB market.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 25, 2018

What we know: The Jaguars have extended Blake Bortles for a 3-year $54M contract and may look to draft some more developmental talent at the position this year (and who wouldn't, with their current backup being an underwhelming Chad Henne?), but Bortles will be the clear-cut starter.

With Allen Robinson likely being re-signed to a new long-term contract (or franchise tagged if the two camps can't reach a deal by March 6th), and building on the pieces that have already worked well (defense/secondary, Leonard Fournette), Bortles has been given one more chance to prove that he deserves to be under center in Jacksonville and could be their franchise quarterback. 

Looking forward: Bortles underwent surgery on his right (throwing hand) wrist back in January, hoping to fix an issue that had been affecting him for the whole 2017 season. While true that there were plenty of games in which Bortles was simply managing the team into victories, it's also clear that toward the end of the season the team needed to lean on the passing game more, and he showed up when needed - putting up 9 passing TDs over the all-important weeks 13-16.

He also had an impressive divisional playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a shootout, continuing to stay one step ahead of Roethlisberger and the Steelers' offense throughout the game. The Jaguars made it to the playoffs last season for the first time since 2007 and the combination of a healthy Bortles & Robinson in addition to their existing pieces should lead them right back into the thick of it.

Well, the Vikings twisted the knife that was put in my heart week one by the Saints loss, and ended my dream of survivor riches. Boy am I looking forward to tonight's Thursday Night Football game between the Vikings of Minnesota and the Los Angeles Rams. Clearly, the Vikings have been preparing for this game for two weeks based on their performance last week against the Bills. It has been 23 years since an NFL team has been favored by as much as the Vikings were last week vs the Bills and lost, a truly historic game. I haven't watched much Vikings football this season, but on paper it seems to me that we are all finding out why the Redskins wouldn't pay Kirk Cousins. I got the Rams in this game and if it wasn't for some uncertainty at corner-back caused by injury, I would like the Rams in a runaway.

On to my not-never-wrong survivor lock pick of the week. The three largest favorites this week (as if that means anything) are the Chargers -10.5, Packers -9.5, and the Jaguars -7.5. Out of these three I am going to eliminate the Packers from my options, Josh Allen has two legs and Aaron Rodgers only has one. The Pack still probably get the win here but I'm just not comfortable picking the Packers until Rodgers looks healthier.

I like the Jags at home against Sam Darnold and the Jets. That defense is just too good and I think they will be able to confuse the rookie QB. I was given a little bit of pause by the Jags loss to the Titans last week, but I guess it was “for the boys”.

That brings me to my pick the San Diego - I mean Los Angeles Chargers. If you didn't already use the Chargers in week 2 against the Bills, this is the next best spot for them. They get the 49ers and backup QB C.J. Beathard coming in for a bounce back game. San Francisco's season went down the crapper when Jimmy “G-spot” tore up his knee on a moronic sideline cutback play. Never have I heard so much hate on a guy for an injury. The Chargers looked like a borderline playoff team against the Rams last week and could easily win the division if their defense ever shows up.

Cheers! Drink Five!

Houston Texans

What’s changed since last year? The Texans didn’t sign any offensive players of note in free agency, they fired their GM Brian Gaine, Lamar Miller tore his ACL and MCL in the preseason, and they acquired RB Duke Johnson from the Browns.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? There has been quite a bit of noise about 2^nd year WR Keke Coutee breaking out this year after a good showing in some games last year, but he has had trouble staying healthy and it looks like he won’t play early in the season after an ankle injury in early August. 4^th year WR Will Fuller has also had trouble staying healthy and went down with an ACL last year but appears to be fully recovered now and is my choice for a breakout. He did have 7 TDs in 2017 but has maxed out at only 635 yards so I think this year may be his best yet.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Duke Johnson (ADP79, RB34) is a good example of a sleeper pick right now, although his ADP has risen substantially since Lamar Miller suffered a season-ending knee injury. Especially in PPR leagues, Johnson could end up outperforming his ADP by miles if the Texans don’t end up picking up another RB to start. Either way, he’ll have the opportunity to succeed in this offense.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Although Deshaun Watson (ADP 40, QB2) is routinely taken off draft boards quickly, DeAndre Hopkins (ADP 5, WR1) is an easy decision to make here. Hopkins is an otherworldly talent who will almost certainly catch 100+ passes for 1500+ yards and 10+ TDs. Boom.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? 2^nd year TE Jordan Thomas (ADP 373, TE41) could find his way into being a TE2 on a team that craves some more options in the passing game, and UDFA RB Damarea Crockett (ADP 303, RB78) figures to find a way into the lineup throughout the year barring some major moves from the Texans. Duke Johnson has not missed an NFL game, however, so Crockett’s path to playing time probably doesn’t happen that way.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Of note, the Texans picked TE Kahale Warring (3^rd round, #86 overall) for depth at the position – analysis reveals that Warring needs a lot of help with his blocking but is a skilled route runner. He will likely not provide a fantasy impact in 2019. [Editor's Note: Warring is now a candidate for IR, looks like he certainly won't be making any immediate impact in fantasy]

Indianapolis Colts

What’s changed since last year? #1 with a bullet, Andrew Luck has retired, leaving most NFL analysts, fans, players, and coaches in shock. Yowza. This clearly impacts the Colts’ offense negatively in general and we’ll likely see ripples of this in fantasy for years to come. They added Devin Funchess after losing Dontrelle Inman and Ryan Grant and added Spencer Ware.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? 2^nd year WR Deon Cain (ADP 342, WR114) has been killing it in the preseason, so let’s go with him. He tore his ACL in early August last year which is why his name may have faded from memory, but he’ll be a week 1 starter for the Colts and has been showing great chemistry with Jacoby Brissett (who is now the starting QB there). Roll the dice on this kid in a deep draft, why not?

Who is a sleeper you can draft? At this point almost all the Colts are still being drafted above their ADP when you factor in the effects of Luck’s retirement. Perhaps Nyheim Hines (ADP 185, RB58) could help out as a safety valve for the new QB and improve on the yardage (425) and TD (2) numbers he had last year...

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Although Marlon Mack (ADP 38, RB21) is being drafted earlier than T.Y. Hilton (ADP 41, WR15), Hilton has more value and a higher upside (5 1000+ yard receiving seasons while Mack has not yet reached 1000 yards rushing). I’m calling Hilton the stud on this team, and the Colts may be playing from behind more than they have the lead this season. Chuck it, Jacoby!

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? While everyone is drafting Eric Ebron (ADP 90, TE8) as a top 10 TE, they may be forgetting about Jack Doyle (ADP 203, TE21) a little too soon. Doyle finished the 2017 season as the TE8, with 80 receptions, without Andrew Luck. He didn’t participate in the offseason program at all, due to hip/kidney surgeries, but is now recovered and chomping at the bit to provide some fantasy production to your team. Could he cause Ebron to bust in 2019? Maybe.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Parris Campbell (ADP 205, WR70) has missed the last 15 team practices in training camp and preseason due to a lingering hamstring injury. He may play against the Bengals this week, but it looks like he’ll start out the year as the WR4 on the Colts, behind Hilton, Funchess, and Cain. He’s still very much a weapon that the Colts will use but is not likely to be relevant this year without a top QB at the helm.

Tennessee Titans

What’s changed since last year? Congrats on the new gig as backup QB in Nashville, Ryan Tannehill! The Titans also added WR Adam Humphries and drafted rookie WR A.J. Brown.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? So, the narrative says that 3^rd year WR Corey Davis (ADP 94, WR37) should be the breakout player on the Titans this year. And I agree, he should. 2018 basically doubled his stats from the previous year, and at 65 receptions for 891 yards, he doesn’t have far to go to eclipse that 1000 mark. The trouble is really the offense in general but he is currently on a trajectory to be an every week fantasy starter.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Without hesitation, Delanie Walker (ADP 114, TE11). True, he’s getting older (35 as of August 12^th, happy birthday Delanie!), but he strung together 4 straight seasons of 100+ targets and 800+ yards before he was injured in game 1 of 2018. He’s still the starting TE of the Titans and still Mariota’s favorite redzone target. His ADP has been rising recently but he has been no worse than the TE 5 over the past three years. This guy could help you win your league at his current valuation. Former Patriots’ RB Dion Lewis (ADP 129, RB46) is also a possible sleeper, if incumbent starter Derrick Henry is unable to live up to expectations.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Derrick Henry (ADP 36, RB19) is as close as we get to a stud on the Titans now (not counting Walker since consensus is lower on him after coming back from injury), but he’s not quite there. Last year, Henry rushed for 1000+ yards and 12 TDs though – so if he can match those numbers this season, he’ll be drafted as a stud RB in 2020. What are the odds?

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Adam Humphries (ADP 224, WR74) is not currently being drafted in most leagues, and has been getting some buzz in the preseason, even receiving more targets than Davis in the preseason. Last year he had 76 receptions for 816 yards and 5 TDs playing slot receivers for the Bucs. That said – there may not be enough targets to spread around in Tennessee - maybe he just signed with the Titans for the $36 million and a cool place to Netflix and chill.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The only rookie that the Titans took on the offensive side of the ball during the 2019 draft was WR A.J. Brown (ADP 207, WR71). He was drafted #51 overall in the 2^nd round and has all the pieces to be a #1 WR on any NFL team. Unfortunately, he was drafted by the Titans. In Tennessee, Brown has to deal with unpredictable QB play, a struggling offensive line, a middling number of targets available for the playmakers, and a depth chart that currently has both Davis and Walker in front of him as primary options in the passing game. From all the tape I’ve seen of him, it’s likely that Brown will be great – but it’s not likely that it’s in 2019.

Jacksonville Jaguars

[Editor's Note: Jaguars information will be available shortly]