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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

7,156 Pass Completions

 Yet another all-time passing record has passed on to Tom Brady. He passed Drew Brees for the most completions on Sunday, now with 7,156 and counting. In addition, Brady now holds the NFL record for passing attempts (11,152), passing yards (83,338), and passing TDs (617)…and counting! This year, at age 44, he’s leading the league in completions (378), passing attempts (554), passing yards (4,134), and passing touchdowns (36). Maybe it’s no fun for the rest of us to watch Brady week after week after week do what he does, but occasionally it’s time to reflect on just how far ahead he is of everyone else in the league (currently, and through history). Aaron Rodgers is maybe the only active QB who has a chance at catching Brady in any of these categories – he’s averaging 31.36 touchdowns per year started, vs Brady averaging 30.85 per year started. Rodgers is still 178 TDs behind Brady, which would take over 5 years at his current average – and that’s if Brady (still going strong) doesn’t throw another TD pass in his career.

1.0 Interception Percentage

Speaking of the owner of the Chicago Bears, Aaron Rodgers leads the league in interception percentage yet again. Rodgers has led the league in interception percentage (lower numbers better, of course) in 5 of his previous 13 seasons, including the last 3 in a row. Back in 2018, Rodgers finished the season with a miniscule 0.3% interception rate, throwing just 2 picks on 597 pass attempts. But let’s go back to the present – in last night’s game against the Bears, the Packers trailed by 10 points at two different times, but Vegas never made the Packers positive money on the money line during live betting. They know that Aaron, like MJ, takes that shit personally. The Packers, of course, wound up winning the game by 15, with Rodgers throwing 4+ TDs against he Bears for his 7^th time in his career (54 total starts). The game also featured an incredible 2^nd quarter where the two teams combined for 45 points, scoring 5 touchdowns of 38+ yards.

62.7 Fantasy Points

Over the last two weeks, George Kittle has scored 62.7 fantasy points, just putting up massive numbers for the 49ers with Deebo Samuel out or basically playing RB. In those games, he has 22 receptions on 27 receptions, 332 receiving yards and 3 TDs. Even with his 1.8-point game in Week 12, Kittle has the highest 3-week average among all TEs in the league with 16.1 points. Kittle now has 139.6 points on the season, 45% of those points coming in the last two weeks. Kittle has missed three weeks this year, and had two other games with less than 20 yards receiving. Both players ahead of him in points – Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce, have played a full compliment of games this year. Kittle has the highest average points per game at the TE position with 14 ppg, well ahead of Andrews and Rob Gronkowski, both tied at 13.1 ppg.

300+ Passing Yards and 100+ Rushing Yards

Josh Allen is the top scoring fantasy player in the league, and it’s an easier comparison now that every team has completed their bye week. Allen’s performance on Sunday was so good that it deserves two stats shouted out, considering he’s only the 4^th quarterback to ever throw for over 300 yards and rush for over 100 in a single game. This is the 5^th time that Allen has led the league in fantasy points for the week, putting up a massive 36.22 points against the Buccaneers this week. Allen is only the second 100-yard rusher that the Bucs have allowed all season. Allen actually leads the league in yards per carry this season with 6.1 yards/attempt. He qualifies for the minimum 6.25 attempts per game, just barely, with 6.7 rushes per game this year. He has more rushing yards than starters Miles Gaskin (526) and Josh Jacobs (496), but is only third in QB rushing yards.

205 Rushing Yards

Dalvin Cook has set the high-water mark for rushing yards this season with 205 yards on 27 attempts on Thursday night against the Steelers. His 34.7 fantasy points are also the second highest total for the week. This was a game where it was still up in the air earlier in the day if he would even be active – he wound up touching the ball 28 times, gaining 222 total yards and scoring 2 touchdowns in the Vikings wild win against the Steelers. At one point, the Vikings led 29-0, and had to hold off a furious comeback attempt by the Steelers where they scored three touchdowns in under 5 minutes at the end of the third quarter and beginning of the fourth. Cook now has the highest rushing total of any player on the season (the only player above 200 yards), passing Jonathan Taylor’s 185 yards from week 11. With retirement talk for Ben Roethlisberger surrounding him every game now, it was nice to see him put up another 300+ yard game, his 67^th of his career.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

48 Passing Attempts for Zero Points

Last night, Tom Brady was shut out for only the third time in his entire career. The last time his team did not score any points in a game he started was Week 14 of the 2006 season when the Patriots lost 21-0 in Miami. Fast forward 15 years and Brady had a hell of a streak finally snapped. Last night’s game was the first time in his career that his opponent won while scoring fewer than 10 points. In last week’s column, I gushed about Brady as he broke yet another NFL record, so this week I’m going to have some fun celebrating him having an atrocious game on a national broadcast. Everything is just more fun when Brady isn’t winning every damn thing around. Brady has only lost 73 games that he’s started, so it’s not as if we get to do this every day - but then again, that is over 4.5 seasons of losses, so how great is he really? Brady seems to struggle when New Orleans comes down to south Florida - in those two games with the Bucs, he has 0 touchdowns, 4 INTs, and a fumble. He’s been outscored 47-3 and has a meager 55.8% completion percentage. He is 0-4 against New Orleans in the regular season over the last two years. Brady is currently the QB22 of the week - there’s only 2 starting QBs so far this week that have done worse.

36.1 Fantasy Points

Travis Kelce had his best game in his long career on Thursday night against the Chargers. Kelce’s final stat line was 13 targets, 10 receptions, 191 receiving yards, 2 TDs. This makes him the top fantasy player so far through Week 15 - with 4 games still left to play this week, I feel like anything can happen. This performance is the 2nd best TE game we’ve seen all season, in Week 5, Mark Andrews scored 36.2 fantasy points. George Kittle also had a 35.1 point game a couple weeks ago, so I think we can declare the mid-30’s the Tight End ceiling in fantasy football. Kelce, who has played over 120 games in his career, reached his all-time high in receiving yards with 191 (previous high was 168) and he now has 29 games with 100 or more receiving yards. He also tied his career high with 2 TDs, he now has 8 games with multiple touchdowns. The tight end position was pretty top-heavy this week, with both Kelce and Andrews breaking the 30 point mark, but TEs 7-10 combined did not match Kelce’s point total. 

13% Owned in Fleaflicker Leagues

This week’s top RB (so far, yeah) is a player that none of us started last week. The only people claiming to have him in their lineups are Duke Johnson’s mother, and liars. That being said, I want to congratulate Duke’s mom on her fantasy football playoff victory, because Duke had a hell of a game. Posting a career high 107 rushing yards (his only game over 100 yards rushing), and only his second game with two touchdowns, Johnson propelled the Dolphins back to .500 with their sixth win a row (yes, they started 1-7, if you’re counting). Duke has played in 93 NFL games, a rather respectable number for a guy who has never been a regular starter. His 107 rushing yards yesterday are 5.2% of his career total, and he scored 20% of his career rushing TDs! Duke saw 23 touches while only being on the field for 58% of Miami’s offensive snaps, so he could easily supplant the disappointing Miles Gaskin as the RB1 on the Dolphins. Unfortunately for Duke, his next two opponents will be the teams giving up the fewest (Saints) and second fewest (Titans) points to opposing RBs.

14% Owned in Fleaflicker Leagues

For an encore, let’s have a look at the QB1 of the week, who maybe a few of us started since he would have been a smart superflex fill-in. That being said, we’re going to need some proof if you want credit for starting him! Tyler Huntley told the Ravens, “No Lamar, no problem!” and proceeded to do his best Lamar Jackson impression with 28 completions on 40 attempts for 213 yards, 2 TDs through the air, another 13 rushes for 73 yards on the ground and 2 more TDs, good for 35.9 fantasy points. Huntley now has started or played significant time in 3 games this season and is on a definite upward trend, scoring 11.76 (Wk 11 @ CHI), 15.30 (Wk 14 @ CLE), and 35.90 (Wk 15 vs GB). Each of those three games, he has a completion percentage over 70% and has won, or had a chance to win at the end, each of those games. This year is Huntley’s first chance to get real playing time in a game, and he’s shown that he’s definitely more than just a backup level quarterback. If another team wants to design an offense around him, like the Ravens did for Lamar Jackson, I could see him getting snatched up as a starting QB as early as next year.

170 Rushing Yards

Jonathan Taylor had yet another massive game this season, this time against one of the best defensive minds ever in football, Bill Belichick. Taylor posted the highest rushing total and most fantasy points given up by the New England Patriots all season, with 170 yards on 29 carries and 1 TD, good for 23 points. Saturday night for Taylor was punctuated by a 67 yard rushing TD to close out the game when there was just about 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter. This season, Taylor owns the longest rush in the NFL at 83 yards, and the longest rushing TD in the NFL with 76 yards. He leads the league in rushing attempts (270), rushing yards (1,518), rushing TDs (17), yards from scrimmage (1,854), and total TDs (19). It’s all the more impressive when you consider his slow start to the season. In the first 5 games, he was not on the field for more than 55% of the snaps in any of those games, averaged 65.4 yards per game in that stretch, and scored only 2 TDs. Taylor, the 4th-highest scoring fantasy player in 2021, is in the MVP discussion, and is inching ever close to the lead there with Brady’s performance on Sunday night.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! If you thought surviving last week’s Covid nightmare week was fun, how about we do it all over again? Week 16’s news updates have included an onslaught of positive Covid tests and have left a lot of playoff fantasy rosters scrambling. We already saw last week how rookies like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Fields can be useful fill-ins, and there are certainly going to be more rookies that can help fill gaps in week 16. I’m here to walk you through what to expect from the rookie crop in this crucial fantasy week.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 16…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 16: @KC): Harris has posted a couple duds in recent weeks, including an awful game last week against the Titans, but he should be in line for a bounce back game against the Chiefs. Kansas City has allowed the 12th-most running back points per game and has given up the 5th-most RB receptions and 3rd-most RB receiving yards. Najee is tied with Austin Ekeler for the 2nd-most RB receptions this season. His workload isn’t going anywhere. Najee is still a top-12 RB play this week despite some recent down games. You have to keep starting him. 

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 16: @NO): Waddle has hauled in 8 or more receptions in 4 of his last 5 games played, and the Saints have allowed the 7th-most WR points per game. Marshon Lattimore isn’t going to cover Waddle in the slot. Don’t overthink this one. Waddle is a WR2 this weekend. 

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 16: vs. Bal.): You might not be still in the fantasy playoffs if you were relying on Chase last week, but you have to go back to the well again this week if you’re still alive. Chase has too high of a ceiling to leave him on your bench. The Ravens lost Marlon Humphrey to a season-ending pec injury a couple weeks ago, and this week will be without Jimmy Smith on the Covid list. The Bengals are going to try to take some deep shots to take advantage, and Chase topped 200 receiving yards against the Ravens when their corners were healthy. You’ll be kicking yourself if he scores 20+ points from your bench. 

Borderline Rookies I Would Lean Toward Starting: 

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 16: @Sea.): Fields has finished as a top-10 QB in each of his last 4 full games played, and there’s no reason he can’t make it 5-for-5 this week. The Seahawks have allowed the 10th-fewest QB points per game, but they rank just 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. They’ve allowed the 5th-fewest QB rushing yards, but most of the QBs they’ve faced have been statues. They’ve faced only 6 QBs all season with more than 100 rushing yards on the year, and 4 of them ran for more than 20 yards against the Seahawks. Fields will have his usual rushing upside, and he’ll have a chance to throw a bunch as well with the Bears a touchdown underdog. If you’re looking for a streaming QB this week, Fields would be a good option again. 

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 16: @LV): Williams continues to split the backfield with Melvin Gordon, but it hasn’t stopped him from coming on strong late in the season. Williams has topped 80 scrimmage yards in 4 of his last 5 games, 4 of which Melvin Gordon was active for. The Raiders allow the 3rd-most RB points per game, and the running back pool is a little depleted this week with Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook and Elijah Mitchell all likely sidelined. The Broncos are likely to lean on the ground game even more than usual with Drew Lock under center. I’d look at Javonte as a mid-range RB2 with the upside for a lot more. 

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Carter split the backfield with Tevin Coleman in his return from IR last week, but I’d expect him to take more of a lead role as he’s another week removed from his injury, and the Jaguars allow the 13th-most RB points per game. The Jets are actually favored for once, so I’d expect them to be able to run the ball a bit more than usual, so a lead back role for Carter probably means 15+ touches against a middling run defense. He’s not an auto-start this week, but he’s a top-24 option at the position this week. 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 16: @Atl.): This is contingent on Jared Goff getting cleared from the Covid list in time for this game, but ARSB should be a solid WR3 this week if that happens. He may not see another dozen targets if D’Andre Swift is able to get cleared to play, but he’ll still be the top target among the wide receivers against a defense that allows the 3rd-most wide receiver points per game. He’s a safe bet for 8+ targets in a plus matchup no matter who is at QB for the Lions, but if it’s Tim Boyle, I’d view him more as a WR4 than WR3. The Falcons slot corner Richie Grant has allowed a passer rating of 111.6 and 8.2 yards per target on throws into his coverage. Editor's note: As of Friday morning, Goff is unlikely to start.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 16: vs. Det.): Pitts hasn’t set the world on fire in recent weeks, but he’s earned 6+ targets in all but 2 games this season, and the Lions defense ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA and is just a middling defense against tight ends, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position. If you don’t have a top-8 tight end, you’re going to have a hard time finding an option who has a higher yardage floor than Pitts. Pitts is one of the few tight ends once you get past the studs who could give you a strong performance without finding the end zone. 

Borderline Rookies I Would Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): It’s safe to assume that Jones is going to throw the ball more than 3 times in this go-round with the Bills, but he still is unlikely to be a good fantasy option. Big Ben Roethlisberger scored 12.04 fantasy points against the Bills in week 1. That is still the most fantasy points any QB has scored against the Bills without scoring a rushing touchdown, and Mac hasn’t scored a rushing TD since early last season at Alabama. He also may be playing without Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne this week. Jones should be considered a low-end QB2 for this week. 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Damien Harris is practicing in a limited capacity this week, and Stevenson is sitting out of practice with an illness (not Covid-19 as far as we know). I’d expect both to be active this week, but I don’t expect Stevenson to provide a useful fantasy day without finding his way into the end zone. In New England’s first meeting with Buffalo, the Patriots asserted their will in the ground game and Stevenson handled 24 rushing attempts. Rhamondre finished that week as the RB28. I wouldn’t expect much more than that this week in a game where the Patriots are sure to throw the ball more often than the first meeting. 

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. TB): The potential return of Sam Darnold makes Hubbard a better play this week than he was last week, but Matt Rhule announced this week that Cam Newton and Darnold will both play in this game, making it too muddy of a situation to trust Hubbard in the fantasy playoffs. Ameer Abdullah has fully taken over the passing down role in the offense since Christian McCaffrey went down with injury, and Hubbard splits the rushing work with Newton whenever Cam is on the field. Chuba handled 19 touches in the last 2 weeks while Cam rushed the ball 25 times himself. Even if we knew Hubbard was getting all of the rushing work to himself, the Panthers are 11-point underdogs and will be throwing a bunch, and the Bucs allow the 3rd-fewest rushing yards per game. Hubbard would be a dicey RB3 option if Darnold was going to be under center all game. With Cam and Darnold splitting the QB job, Hubbard is an even worse play than that. 

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Smith hasn’t seen more than 6 targets come his way in the last 7 games, and this week is shaping up as a week where the Eagles probably won’t have to throw much. The Giants rank just 28th in run defense DVOA and will be playing with a backup QB. Philly should have no problem running it down their throats. Smith will also likely be shadowed by James Bradberry, who held him to 2 catches and 22 yards on 4 targets in the last meeting between these teams. Smith’s ceiling has been lowered in recent weeks due to Dallas Goedert’s increased receiving usage and the team’s run-heavy approach, and this game has all the makings of being a floor week for Smith. 

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 16: @Cin.): Bateman was on the field for almost every offensive snap in week 15 with Sammy Watkins sidelined, but Tyler Huntley only had eyes for Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown in the passing game, as that duo combined for a nearly 70% target share. I’d expect those targets to be a little more spread out in this one, but Bateman has been held under 40 yards in 4 of his last 5 games. There is upside for Bateman this week - the Ravens are a 3-point underdog, Sammy Watkins is on the Covid reserve list this week, and the Bengals fielding just a middling pass defense, but the floor is low as well. I’d look for a safer option than Bateman in the fantasy playoffs. 

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Collins has been much more involved for the Texans in recent weeks, with 20 targets in the last 4 weeks, but this week he faces a Chargers’ defense that allows the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and he’s topped 30 receiving yards just once in his last 6 games. Collins may see 6+ targets in this game with the Chargers heavily favored, but it’s hard to count on him returning more than WR4 production in this crucial week. 

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 16: @Hou.): The Chargers placed Jalen Guyton on the Covid list this week, which should open up playing time for Palmer if Guyton can’t get cleared before this game. I still wouldn’t expect a big week for Palmer. The Chargers are nearly double-digit favorites in this game, so they should lean on the run game, even if Austin Ekeler is out, and the Texans are much more susceptible to the run than the pass. They rank 10th in pass defense DVOA. Palmer will still be no better than 3rd in the target pecking order in this game. It would be a pleasant surprise if Palmer tops 50 yards in this game. 

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 16: @KC): Freiermuth suffered a concussion in week 15 and might not clear the protocol in time to face the Chiefs. If he does get cleared, this isn’t a slam-dunk start for him. Muth has gotten by on touchdowns. He’s failed to top 50 yards in any game since week 6, but he’s found the end zone 6 times in the last 8 games. Kansas City hasn’t allowed a tight end touchdown since week 8. The Steelers could be forced to throw a bunch as a 10-point underdog, but I’d still view Freiermuth as a fringe TE1 play if he’s able to go. I’d be looking for a higher upside option in the fantasy playoffs. Zach Gentry would have a little deep league appeal if Pat is out. 

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit: 

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): This is a favorable matchup for Wilson against a defense that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA, but he’s still playing without his top 2 wide receivers and hasn’t been a trustworthy fantasy option. Wilson has averaged just 186 passing yards per game since returning from IR and has accounted for more than 1 score in just 3 games all season. The Jets are actually favored to win this game, which may mean even lower passing volume than usual. He’s only worth consideration if you’re desperate for a QB2. 

QB Ian Book, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Mia.): Book is likely to make his first start this week with Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian both on the Covid reserve list, but he shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineups. The Dolphins have given up an average of fewer than 12 QB fantasy points per game during their 6-game winning streak, and the Saints will likely be conservative with the game plan and try to win behind their defense and Alvin Kamara. There is a little bit of Konami code rushing upside to Book’s game. He ran for over 1,000 total rushing yards in his last two seasons at Notre Dame, so he’ll be interesting in showdown contests if the price is right, but there are currently no showdown prices posted on DraftKings for this game. Book is a bottom-of-the-barrel play in season-long leagues. 

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Gainwell was an afterthought in the Philly offense last week in a comfortable win against a shorthanded Washington team, with Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard handling the backfield work, and I’d expect similar usage this week unless the Eagles pull away and blow the Giants out. Philly is a 10-point favorite, so that’s entirely possible, but it’s not something I’d want to rely on in the playoffs. 

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 16: @Sea.): Herbert did get some extended run in hurry-up mode late on Monday night, catching 3 passes for 34 yards, and the Bears may try to get him more involved with their season essentially over. He’s still averaged just 3 touches per game since David Montgomery returned from IR (no more than 5 touches in any single game). I wouldn’t be seriously considering him anywhere unless we get word that the Bears are going to cut back on Monty’s usage down the stretch. 

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Patterson scored his first NFL touchdown on Tuesday night, but he’s still not seeing a ton of playing time as Antonio Gibson has taken over a bigger share of the backfield workload with JD McKissic sidelined. Gibson has played more than two-thirds of the offensive snaps in each of the last 4 games, and Patterson has totaled just 10 touches in the 3 games that McKissic has missed. The Cowboys allow the 3rd-fewest RB points per game, so Patterson is unlikely to do much damage on only a handful of touches. 

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 16: @GB): Felton was on the field for more than 50% of the Browns’ offensive snaps last week with the team drastically shorthanded at wide receiver and tight end due to a Covid outbreak, but it led to just 4 targets, 3 catches and 16 yards. Keep an eye on the injury updates, but I’d expect Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper to each return this week, which would push Felton back to the bench. He’s a low-upside dart throw if both remain sidelined again. 

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Jefferson already isn’t getting onto the field behind Craig Reynolds and Godwin Igwebuike (9 total snaps in the last two weeks). Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift may both be back this week. A healthy scratch is very possible for Jermar.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 16: vs. Bal.): Evans returned from his ankle injury last week but logged just 6 snaps and zero touches. He’s got some work to do to get back into the mix in the Bengals’ backfield. 

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 16: @Ten.): If you missed the news, Mitchell has been ruled out for Thursday night’s tilt with the Titans. It’ll be Jeff Wilson, JaMycal Hasty and Deebo Samuel manning the 49ers’ backfield again on Thursday. 

WR Ben Skowronek, LAR (Wk. 16: @Min.): Skowronek played his best game of the season on Tuesday night, but it was likely just a blip on the radar for him. He hauled in 4 passes for 42 yards on 5 targets but was on the field for just 21 snaps. You can’t rely on that kind of production repeating itself on that kind of playing time, even against a Minnesota defense that allows the most wide receiver points per game. A repeat of last week’s performance would be a pleasant surprise. 

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Rondale has one game of 50+ scrimmage yards in his last 9 contests, and now is battling through an ankle injury that held him out of practice early in the week. There’s no reason to expect a breakout game this week against a Colts’ defense that’s in the top half of the league at limiting WR fantasy points. 

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 16: @Phi.): Toney has a chance to finally return to action this week, but he’s had a 5-week layoff and will be facing a defense that allows the 3rd-fewest wide receiver points per game. He also may have Jake Fromm at quarterback. I wouldn’t count on him this week. 

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Tyler Lockett has been cleared to return from the Covid reserve list, so Eskridge moves back into a timeshare for the WR3 role with Freddie Swain this week. The rookie had a chance at a big game last week – he was targeted deep downfield 4 times but failed to convert any of them into catches. I wouldn’t expect him to see that kind of opportunity this week with Lockett back, even in a plus matchup against the Bears. 

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Marshall hasn’t caught a pass since week 6 and hasn’t been targeted more than twice in a game since week 5. Even if the Panthers’ passing game improves with the return of Sam Darnold, you can’t trust Marshall in any lineups. 

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 16: @GB): Schwartz returned last Monday after missing 3 games with a concussion, but he played just 13 snaps and wasn’t targeted despite the Browns being short-handed at wide receiver. It’s possible that his playing time gets ramped up as he gets further away from the injury, but I’d expect Jarvis Landry back this week as well. Steer clear until we see more from Schwartz. 

WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Over Washington’s last 5 games, Milne and Brown have combined for 4 targets, 3 receptions, and 9 receiving yards. Don’t even consider it. 

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. SF): Fitzpatrick missed week 15 on the Covid list, but even if he returns this week, I wouldn’t expect a substantial role in the offense. AJ Brown could return this week, and Julio Jones came back last weekend. Even if Fitzpatrick gets cleared and AJ Brown can’t play Thursday night, Fitzpatrick will have missed practice all week and likely won’t be part of the game plan. 

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Smith-Marsette managed to score his first touchdown last week, but he did so with both Adam Thielen and Dede Westbrook sidelined. Westbrook was cleared to return from the Covid list Tuesday and Thielen is expected back as well. Ihmir would be lucky to play any offensive snaps this week. 

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (WK. 16: vs. TB): Tremble gets a decent matchup this week against a bottom-10 tight end defense, but he’s reached 25 receiving yards just twice all year and the Panthers’ revolving door at QB this week is going to make it tough for Tremble to have a breakout game. 

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 16: @Dal.): Bates has played more than 60% of the Washington’s offensive snaps in each of the 2 games since Ricky Seals-Jones returned from IR and came up a yard short of a touchdown on Tuesday night, but RSJ is the tight end to consider in this offense. Seals-Jones has been targeted 11 times in the last two games. Bates has been targeted 3 times. You’d have to be pretty desperate to be considering Bates this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options: 

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Mills was the 8th QB selected in this year’s NFL draft, but he’s outperformed most of the QBs selected ahead of him and gets a better matchup this week than you think. The Chargers have allowed 16+ fantasy points to each QB they’ve faced in the last 7 games, a stretch that included matchups with Mike Glennon and Teddy Bridgewater. Davis has averaged 18 fantasy points per game in his last 3 starts. There’s downside, but Mills is a sneaky QB2 option this week for an improving Texans’ offense. 

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 16: @NYJ): I know, there’s no way to trust T-Law in your fantasy playoffs after he’s accounted for just 1 touchdown in his last 7 games, but if a breakthrough is ever going to happen this season, it’s probably going to happen this week. The Jets have allowed multiple touchdowns (passing or rushing) to each of the last 10 QBs they’ve faced, and this week they’re likely to be without 6 defensive starters due to Covid-19, including 3 defensive backs. The Jaguars are undoubtedly going to lean on James Robinson in this game, but Lawrence has a real chance to finish as a top-15 QB this week. Of course, there’s risk given Lawrence’s recent performances, but there’s upside as well. 

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): Nwangwu looked impressive on limited touches on Monday night, and he could be in line for expanded touches this week after Dalvin Cook tested positive for Covid this week. Alexander Mattison was activated from the Covid reserve list this week, and he’ll undoubtedly be the lead back, but Nwangwu only needs a few touches to have a chance to make an impact with his speed. He’s a sneaky option for DFS contests this week. With Cook being unvaccinated, there is a chance that he doesn’t get cleared for week 17 either, this could be a multi-week role for Kene. 

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 16: @Hou.): Disregard this if Austin Ekeler gets himself cleared from the Covid list, but there could be an opening for Rountree to have a role this week if Ekeler’s out. Rountree has been a healthy scratch in 3 of the last 4 weeks, but Joshua Kelley’s goal line fumble against the Chiefs may have opened the door for him. I’d expect Justin Jackson to function as the lead back (Austin Ekeler himself even said you should pick up Jackson on his weekly Yahoo! Fantasy football show this week), but Rountree could take over short-yardage and goal line situations. Houston ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and has allowed 6 running back rushing scores in the last 3 weeks. You can’t use Rountree in the fantasy playoffs, but he costs just $200 in showdown contests on DraftKings. 

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Jordan was active last week after battling through a hand injury during the week but didn’t play a single offensive snap. He’s practicing in full ahead of this week’s game with the Chargers. Jordan was targeted 11 times in weeks 13 & 14, and no team allows more points per target to tight ends than the Chargers. Los Angeles has also allowed a league-high 12 tight end scores. Jordan has more upside than usual this week, and has a great chance to finish as a top-15 TE for the week. 

TE Noah Gray, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Travis Kelce and Blake Bell are both currently on the Covid reserve list, which means Gray steps in as the starting tight end this week if neither can get cleared to return, and we know the tight end is an integral part of this offense. Gray obviously wouldn’t be the same focal point that Kelce is, but he’s likely to see a handful of targets come his way. The Steelers are a tough matchup, allowing the 8th-fewest tight end points per game, but Gray could make a great bargain basement DFS option this week. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend and helps you advance in the fantasy playoffs. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally arrived at the week we’ve been waiting for – Championship Week! Hopefully your squads have survived the rigors of the season, and the multitude of injury and Covid-19 absences in recent weeks to make it this far. Hopefully you didn’t get Tee Higgins’d, or Justin Jackson’d or Rex Burkhead-ed last weekend. Week 16 served as a valuable reminder that it doesn’t matter what your team did for the first 15 weeks of the season. What matters is what they do this week. Don’t completely throw caution to the wind and bench your best players, but don’t be afraid to think a little outside the box this week.

I want to emphasize, this week of all weeks, not to take the headers below as gospel. Please consider your league rules and what your roster looks like when applying any of the advice below. Don’t start Rhamondre Stevenson over a back like Ronald Jones or Chase Edmonds, or Amon Ra-St. Brown over receivers like Michael Pittman or Brandin Cooks just because I said I’d lean towards starting them. Put it in the context of your team and make the decision that makes the most sense for your roster.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 17…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): The Browns aren’t a great matchup for running backs, allowing the 10^th-fewest running back points per game, but Najee has scored a dozen or more fantasy points in 12 of his 15 games this season, including 19.5 points in his first meeting with the Browns. He has to be in your lineup this week if you have him.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 17: vs. KC): Chase got back on track in week 16 with his first 100-yard game since October, and that should give you the confidence you need to fire him up Sunday. The Chiefs aren’t a pushover on defense, allowing the 11^th-fewest WR points per game and ranking 13^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, but they’re hardly a matchup to run away from. The Bengals have been more pass-heavy in recent weeks (Joe Burrow has averaged 35.5 attempts in the last 4 weeks after averaging 30.8 prior to that), and they’ll likely have to throw in this one as 5-point underdogs. We’ve seen that the floor isn’t as rock solid as we’d like with Chase, but few WRs can match his ceiling.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 17: @Ten.): Since Tua returned from IR in week 6, Waddle is the PPR WR7. He’s tallied 7+ receptions in 7 of 9 games in that stretch, and 60+ receiving yards in 8 of 9. He hasn’t flashed week-winning upside often, but he should be as safe as it gets facing a Titans’ defense that allows the 2^nd-most WR points per game.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 17: vs. Hou.): Lance is in line to make his second start of the season with Jimmy Garoppolo battling a thumb ailment, and he gets a reasonable matchup in the Houston Texans. The Texans have been playing better defense in recent weeks, holding 4 of the last 7 QBs they’ve faced below a dozen points, but for the season they’ve allowed the 15^th-most QB points per game and rank a middling 15^th in pass defense DVOA. Lance’s rushing ability also gives him a built-in floor that those other QBs the Texans limited didn’t have. The Texans have allowed the 2^nd-fewest QB rushing yards per game, which sounds daunting for Lance...but in the two games where Lance has seen extended playing time, he ran for 41 yards in one half against the defense that allows the 4^th-fewest QB rushing yards (Seattle), and for 89 yards against the defense that allows the 12^th-fewest QB rushing yards (Arizona). Designed runs will be a part of the game plan, and I expect Lance to put up the highest QB rushing total the Texans have allowed this season (their current high is 41). I’d view Lance as a low-end QB1 this week, and he could finish as a high-end QB1 if he has an efficient passing day.

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Jax.): I’d only lean towards playing Jones in 2-QB and Superflex formats, but the Jaguars have proven easier to attack through the air than on the ground this season. Blowout losses have limited how much passing volume the Jaguars have faced, but QBs have still done some damage with that limited volume. 6 of the last 9 QBs they faced threw for fewer than 200 yards, but 4 of those 6 QBs still put up 15+ fantasy points. The Jaguars rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and a middling 16^th in run defense DVOA. The Patriots are favored by 16.5 points, so this one very well could get out of hand and have the Pats running for much of the 2^nd half, but I like Jones’ chances to make an impact before it’s too lopsided. A 200-yard, 3-score kind of game is what you’re hoping for here.

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): It feels like only yesterday that twitter was cracking jokes about Mills’ weirdly long giraffe neck, but his play on the field over the last couple months should have them talking about him for a different reason. In his last 4 starts, Mills has averaged 276 passing yards per game, and racked up a 7 to 2 TD:INT ratio, and he’s finished as a top-15 fantasy QB in every one of those weeks. All 4 of the defenses he faced in those games have allowed fewer QB points per game this season than the 49ers. Mills isn’t going to go out and drop 25+ fantasy points in championship week. He doesn’t have that kind of big ceiling, but he’s a much safer QB2 option than you might realize.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 17: vs. Hou.): Mitchell seems to be trending in the right direction to play this week, and coach Kyle Shanahan is quoted as saying “We’ll play Elijah as much as he can handle.” The 49ers are likely to run the ball as much as they can against a Houston defense that ranks 26^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 4^th-most running back points per game, and the threat of QB Trey Lance running the ball could make it even easier for Mitchell to find space to run. There’s obvious baked-in risk here since Mitchell has missed the last 3 games and could be eased in, but the upside in this matchup is big if he sees 15+ touches. I’d treat him as an upside RB2 in championship week.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Jax.): If you read about Mac Jones above, you know that the Patriots are more than a 2-touchdown favorite in this game, and that should mean a lot of Rhamondre and Damien Harris. The Jaguars have been an average run defense, ranking 16^th in run defense DVOA, but Stevenson should see plenty of volume in a one-sided game. Stevenson has handled 10+ carries in 5 of the last 6 games he’s played. He topped 60 rushing yards in 4 of them and seems a sure bet for 10+ carries again this week. I wouldn’t treat him as a surefire top-20 play this week, but if you’re searching for a flex play, Stevenson is a player I like this week. If you do plan to start him, keep an eye on reports from the Pats to make sure he isn’t suffering any ill effects from his bout with Covid. If he’s good to go, he’s a strong flex play/RB3.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 17: @Sea.): ARSB has already shown us that he can produce without Jared Goff under center, posting a 9-91-1 receiving line with Tim Boyle under center last week. I’m not going to be the one to bet against him keeping it up just because D’Andre Swift is back. St. Brown has seen 11+ targets in 4 straight games and faces a defense this week that ranks 28^th in pass defense DVOA. Swift will likely cut into his target share a little bit, but he’s likely going to be in the range of 7-9 targets against this defense, which is enough to make the Sun God an upside PPR WR3 again this week.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 17: @Was.): Smith has shown us the peaks and valleys that come with being the WR1 in a run-heavy offense over the last two months. Devonta’s played 8 games since the Eagles’ philosophical shift to running the ball happened. He scored over 17 fantasy points in 3 of them, and fewer than 6 points in 4 of them, including in the first meeting with Washington. That same boom-or-bust element applies in week 17, but I like Smith’s chances at greatly improving on the 3-40 line he posted against Washington two weeks ago. In that game, Washington was missing key pieces of their front 7 due to Covid, and the Eagles were able to have their way with them on the ground, running for over 6 yards per carry with their running backs. Most of those Washington defenders are now back, and the Eagles will be playing without Miles Sanders and possibly without Jordan Howard (the two backs who piled up those yards). I don’t expect Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell to have the same success running the ball this time around against a defense that ranks 15^th in run defense DVOA. That means increased passing volume against a defense that allows the 3^rd-most WR points per game. I think Smith posts a double-digit point performance Sunday.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 17: vs. TB): You probably aren’t considering Wilson anyway, but Tampa has allowed the 9^th-most QB points per game and have already ruled out two of their top pass rushers for this week (Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett). Wilson also flashed some running ability last week against the Jaguars. There are reasons to think he’s a sneaky QB2 play this week despite being a 2-touchdown underdog. I just want to remind you that it’s not worth the risk in championship week. Wilson has thrown for 230+ yards just twice all year, run for 20+ just twice all year, and accounted for multiple TDs just 4 times in 11 starts, and the Bucs rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA. It would be a huge roll of the dice to trust Wilson in championship week.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 17: @LAC): With Drew Lock under center, the Broncos’ run game cratered last week as the Raiders were able to focus on stopping Williams and Melvin Gordon. Williams posted 12 yards and a score on 7 rushes while Gordon ran 7 times for negative-4 yards. The matchup is better this week against a Chargers’ defense that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA, but the Denver passing game will offer even less of a threat this week with Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick sidelined by Covid, and Williams is battling through a knee injury that may have contributed to his poor performance last week. There’s plenty of upside here as the Chargers allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game, but I’d rather rely on a more trustworthy option with my season on the line this week.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 17: vs. TB): Carter returned from IR last week and handled a 74% snap share and 19 touches in a strong performance against the Jaguars. The sledding gets much tougher this week against Tampa Bay. Carter should again handle most of the backfield work, which puts him very much in play as an RB2 or RB3 this week, but Tampa has allowed the 3^rd-fewest rushing yards this season and ranks 11^th in run defense DVOA. They’ve been vulnerable to backs in the passing game, allowing nearly 7 receptions per game to backs, but Carter hasn’t been targeted by Zach Wilson more than 3 times in any game this season. All of his best receiving efforts happened while Wilson was sidelined. Counting on garbage time receiving work for Carter seems like an ill-advised strategy in championship week.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): Hubbard has averaged just 8 carries and fewer than 1 target per game in the last 3 weeks, and this week faces a defense that ranks 1^st in run defense DVOA and allows the fewest running back points per game. He’ll continue to operate as the lead back on early downs, but even if the Panthers are more competitive this week and Hubbard gets more carries, there’s no guarantee he’s more successful with those carries or that he won’t get vultured by Cam at the goal line. I wouldn’t count on double-digit points for Chuba.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. LAR): Bateman has been playing an every down role the last two weeks, and the Ravens are underdogs and should be throwing against a middling Rams’ WR defense (they allow the 15^th-fewest points per game to the position). Despite that, I’d steer clear of him in your championship matchups. There’s a possibility Sammy Watkins sees more work this week in his second game back from the Covid list, and Bateman has really only had one productive quarter in his last 5 games. He tallied 5 receptions for 79 yards in the 4^th quarter of a furious comeback attempt against the Browns in week 14. Outside of that quarter, he’s totaled 11 catches, 115 yards, and 1 touchdown in the last 5 games. Of course, there’s upside for him here if the Ravens fall behind and have to throw, but a 4-30 kind of game is just as likely (if not more likely) than an 80+ yard day.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): Collins has come on a bit in recent weeks, with double-digit PPR points in two of his last 3 games, but his production hasn’t been consistent enough to trust him this week with your season on the line. The 49ers do allow the 9^th-most WR points per game, but Brandin Cooks is easily the WR1 in this offense that has thrown the ball 30 or fewer times in 5 of their last 6 games. It’s possible the Texans fall in a hole and have to throw a bit more in this one (they’re 12.5-point underdogs), but I like their chances to stay within striking distance as Trey Lance makes just his 2^nd NFL start. Despite Collins’ recent increased workload, he’s reached 35+ receiving yards just once in the last 7 games.

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 17: vs. Den.): Palmer was a great streamer play in two of the last 3 weeks while the Chargers battled Covid issues in their wide receiver room. He posted 15+ PPR points in week 14 and week 16, but both Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton have been cleared to return this week. We’ve seen a trend of players coming off the Covid list getting their workload dialed back a bit, so Palmer could still see extended playing time, but the Broncos allow the 8^th-fewest WR points per game. The matchup isn’t good, and Palmer’s floor is basically non-existent if Williams and Guyton get their usual workloads.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): Freiermuth is expected back this week, and you know what to expect from him if he plays. He’s going to probably have 3-4 receptions for 30-40 yards, and he may or may not find the end zone. It’s that last part that will determine if he was a good play or not. Freiermuth has found the end zone in 6 of the last 9 games he’s played, including in the first meeting with these Browns, but many of the TDs the Browns have allowed to tight ends have been to elite players at the position. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have accounted for half of the 8 TDs the Browns have allowed to tight ends. Ultimately, if you’re projected to win your matchup this week and just need floor production from the position, Freiermuth is probably fine, but he doesn’t provide much upside beyond 15 or so PPR points. He’s a low-end TE1 this week.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 17: @Buf.): You might not have a better option on your roster but be warned that this is a dangerous matchup for Pitts. The Bills allow the 3^rd-fewest tight end points per game and have only allowed 2 tight ends all season to score as many as 9 fantasy points (Logan Thomas and Travis Kelce). Pitts’ volume should be there. He’s been targeted 6+ times in all but two games this season, but tight ends with 6+ targets against Buffalo have averaged just 7.7 fantasy points against them. Pitts is still a low-end TE1 play based on his volume and role in the offense, but the floor here is lower than usual.  

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): Jordan has carved out a nice chunk of the Texans passing game for himself in recent weeks despite serving as the team’s TE2 behind Pharaoh Brown. Over his last 4 games, he’s totaled 18 targets, 13 receptions, 112 yards and 2 TDs and been the TE14 over that span. I don’t see this as a week where he exceeds that rank. The 49ers have allowed the 6^th-fewest TE points per game. They’ve allowed just 3 tight ends to exceed 40 receiving yards against them all year and haven’t allowed a tight end touchdown since week 10. Jordan is a TD dart throw that I’d bet against scoring a TD this week.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Bates has functioned as Washington’s starting tight end for about a month now, and he faces off with the worst TE defense in the NFL this week, so he’s worth at least some consideration as a desperation streamer. I’d still look elsewhere this week if you’re digging this deep. Last week was the first time in the 3 games since Ricky Seals-Jones returned from IR that Bates out-targeted RSJ, and neither player had a target until the second half of that game when Washington trailed by 5+ touchdowns. There’s a risk that RSJ plays more this week if there’s less garbage time, and that pushes an already shaky streamer to an unusable range for me. Bates is also too rich for my blood in DFS showdown contests ($4,600 on DraftKings).

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 17: @NE): The Pats remain a nightmare matchup for most rookie QBs. Since Bill Belichick took over as New England’s head coach in 2000, the Pats have held 49% of the rookie QBs they’ve faced below 10 fantasy points (17 out of 35). Lawrence has accounted for just 1 total touchdown in his last 8 games, and the Jaguars have an implied point total of just 12.5 points this week. You could take a chance on T-Law as a QB2 on the sole basis that he’s due for a good game, but nothing about this matchup or Lawrence’s recent performance points to a solid game for the rookie.

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. NYG): If you missed the update, the Bears announced Friday that Andy Dalton will start in week 17 with Fields still battling through an injury. I’d be surprised if Fields is active.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. NYG): The Giants are bad enough that the Bears could actually pull off a convincing win this week and allow Herbert to get some extended run late in the game, but you can’t count on that in championship week. Khalil has handled 5 or fewer touches in all 7 games since David Montgomery returned from IR.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Felton filled in a lot at slot WR in week 15 with Jarvis Landry out with Covid, but he was back down to just 4 snaps on Sunday with Landry back. He’s not start-able.

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 17: @GB): The new NFL Covid protocols announced this week made it easier for Dalvin Cook to return for this game, so Cook and Alexander Mattison should handle the bulk of the backfield work in this one. Nwangwu will be back to handling just special teams.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 17: @Dal.): Moore missed last week with an ankle injury, but the same things I wrote about him last week still apply. He hasn’t topped 50 scrimmage yards in his last 9 games, and Dallas ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA. If there’s one glimmer of hope for Moore this week, it’s that the Cowboys allow the 3^rd-most yards after catch, but you can’t count on a useful game from Rondale if he’s active given what we’ve gotten from him this year.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 17: vs. Det.): With Tyler Lockett back in action last week, Eskridge was back down to playing just 20 offensive snaps. He still saw 3 targets and one rushing attempt on those limited snaps, but I wouldn’t bet on a breakout game here against a defense that allows the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. The Seahawks have a great chance to play from ahead for once and lean on the run game as 7-point favorites.

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Mia.): The Titans are battling some Covid issues this week with Julio Jones and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine expected to miss this game on the reserve list, but don’t count on that resulting in a significant opportunity for Dez. AJ Brown saw a 55% target share in his first game back from IR. I don’t expect that share to be quite as high this week, but AJB should dominate targets again in what is already a low volume passing attack. The WR scraps will be split between Fitzpatrick, Racey McMath, and Chester Rodgers. Even against a Miami defense allowing the 8^th-most WR points per game, none of that trio are worth anything more than a low-cost dart throw in DFS showdown contests. Dez, at $200 on DraftKings, is probably the most cost-effective option, but none are particularly good plays.

WRs Terrace Marshall Jr. & Shi Smith, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): The Panthers’ passing game got even harder to predict last week with Sam Darnold and Cam Newton splitting playing time at QB. Marshall is playing a lot of snaps as the WR3, but he isn’t getting targeted. He has just 2 targets across nearly 80 offensive snaps played in the last 3 games. Smith, on the other hand, was productive last week (3 catches for 86 yards on 4 targets) but played just 15 snaps. Neither is trustworthy in championship week.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Schwartz got in the end zone last week but handled just 3 touches on 11 offensive snaps in the process. He’s the distant WR4 in this offense right now.

WR Tylan Wallace, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. LAR): Wallace saw his first extended action of the season last week with Devin Duvernay sidelined and Sammy Watkins playing just 3 snaps in his return from the Covid list. He was targeted just twice. Duvernay could be out again, but I’d expect Watkins to see his playing time ramped up. Another 2-target game would be a reasonable expectation for Wallace this week.

WR Ben Skowronek, LAR (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Skowronek followed his best game of the season by playing just 4 offensive snaps last weekend. The return of Tyler Higbee seems to have drastically cut into his playing time. He’s off the fantasy radar this week.  

WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Don’t let a few targets and big play by Dyami last week fool you. These guys aren’t worth consideration. They played a combined 20 snaps last week, and the Eagles allow the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game. Elijah Moore is the only receiver to score 10+ points against Philly in their last 6 games.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 17: @Chi.): Toney returned last week to NINE targets against the Eagles, but he’s suffered another injury and been ruled out for week 17. He just can’t stay on the field.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): Tremble hasn’t topped 4 targets or 35 receiving yards in any game this season, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 5. The Saints allow the 9^th-fewest TE points per game. Tremble isn’t a streaming option. (Update: Tremble was added to the Covid list on Friday.)

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): You could make a case that Patterson belongs in the borderline options this week with Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic both sidelined and Philly allowing the 14^th-most RB points per game, but he won’t have the job entirely to himself. Jonathan Williams and Wendell Smallwood will both mix-in a bit, and Patterson hasn’t been utilized much in the passing game, which is where Philly is most vulnerable to backs. The Eagles have allowed the 2^nd-most RB receptions per game. Patterson should still handle 10-15 touches in this one, which puts him on the flex radar in deeper leagues and makes him a value in DFS contests at his current price, but I wouldn’t view him as one of the top RB streamers of the week.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 17: @Was.): Miles Sanders’ injury alone doesn’t make Gainwell a usable player this week, but that changes if Jordan Howard is out as well. Howard is going to be a game-time call. If he’s out, that leaves just Boston Scott and Gainwell to handle the backfield work against a middling run defense. The Eagles have had at least two backs handle 10+ touches in every game since week 8, and I don’t expect that to change here. If Howard sits, Gainwell becomes an intriguing DFS tournament option and an upside flex play in deeper leagues.

TE Tre’ McKitty, LAC (Wk. 17: vs. Den.): You’d have to be digging pretty deep in a DFS contest to be looking at McKitty, but the Chargers are down their top 2 tight ends this week with Jared Cook added to the Covid list late in the week. Stephen Anderson will likely function as the starting tight end, but the TE2 in this offense typically sees a 35%+ snap share. Denver doesn’t give up a ton of production to tight ends (allow the 4th-fewest points per game to the position), but you could do worse than McKitty if you’re looking for a bargain basement option in a showdown contest this week. He costs just $400 in the showdown slate on DraftKings.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to championship victory in your leagues. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. I know this is championship week, but I’ll be back next week with a quick look at week 18 as well for you DFS players and those with week 18 championships. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.