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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The NFL world continued to be upside down in week 10. The Dolphins stunned the Ravens on Thursday night, the 49ers throttled the Rams on Monday night, and the Lions managed to wrestle a tie from the jaws of victory. Mac Jones threw for 3 touchdowns and Rhamondre Stevenson and DeVonta Smith each scored two, but other than that it was a mostly quiet week for the rookies. The usual suspects had reasonable games (Najee, Waddle, Pitts, Carter), and some backups found the end zone, but not a lot to re-hash. I have a feeling week 11 is going to be a little spicier for the rookies, and I’m excited to take a look at what the upcoming weekend holds in store for them.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game Let’s dive into week 11…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 11: @LAC): You were already going to play Najee Harris in all formats this week, but I really want to drive home the point that this is a smash spot for the rookie. The Chargers rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed the 4^th-most RB points per game. Harris was in a similar smash spot a week ago against the Lions, but the Steelers’ entire offense sputtered with Mason Rudolph under center. Najee didn’t have a bad game by any means. He topped 130 scrimmage yards and finished as the RB15 for the week, but he didn’t quite live up to his lofty expectations. If Rudolph is at QB again this week, I’d expect a similar borderline RB1 performance from him. If Big Ben returns, the sky is the limit.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): The Jets are switching to Joe Flacco at QB this week, but that shouldn’t change things much for Carter. Flacco may not be quite as conservative as Mike White and will take some shots downfield, but he’ll have no issues checking down to Carter and Ty Johnson. Carter has handled at least 13 times in each of the past 6 games, and 19+ times in 3 of the last 4. He should be in line for another solid workload, and the Dolphins aren’t a defense to be afraid of. Miami is a middling RB defense, allowing the 14^th-fewest points per game to the position. Carter is a much more trustworthy option this week than fringe options like Rhamondre Stevenson, D’Ernest Johnson, or D’Onta Foreman. Carter has finished as a top-15 running back in 3 of the last 4 weeks.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 11: @LV): Chase was trending in the wrong direction headed into the bye week after posting 2 of his 3 worst fantasy games of the season in weeks 8 & 9. The Raiders’ defense should fix what’s ailed him. The Raiders haven’t given up a ton of WR points, but they rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA and are coming off their worst defensive game of the season. Don’t get cute and consider sitting Chase this week. He should be a locked in WR2.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 11: @NYJ): In PPR formats, Waddle is now locked in as a weekly upside WR3. He’s going to get plenty of volume in this offense, especially while DeVante Parker and Will Fuller remain sidelined. The Jets are a middling matchup on paper, allowing the 14^th-most WR points per game, but they rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. Jets’ slot corner Michael Carter has allowed a 77% completion percentage and nearly 8 yards per target on throws into his coverage. Waddle should have no problem posting another solid, volume-drive top-30 performance in PPR formats.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 11: vs. NE): Pitts has been a frustrating player to have rostered this season. The underlying usage (route participation, target share, etc.) has been worthy of an elite TE, but the production hasn’t matched that. Defenses have been able to key on Pitts with Calvin Ridley missing games, and the Falcons’ overall offense has been a mess at times. Pitts still finished as the TE12 and TE15 the last two weeks in two abysmal games. Yes, the Patriots are going to try to take him away Thursday night, but he only needs a handful of catches to return top-10 value at the position and the Falcons don’t have a lot of other options to throw the ball to. I wouldn’t fault you for sitting him if you had another stud tight end to start over him, but if you’re looking at guys like Dan Arnold, Freiermuth, or Zach Ertz to start over him, you shouldn’t be.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 11: @Atl.): Jones is coming off the first 3-touchdown performance of his career and gets to face a hapless Atlanta defense that allows the 3^rd-most QB points per game. This is the perfect opportunity to fire up Mac Jones, right? As Lee Corso would say, “not so fast, my friends.” Jones has played the best football of any rookie QB this season, but it’s resulted in just 1 game with 20+ fantasy points. There are 9 QBs that have averaged 21 fantasy points per game or more. In fact, the point total that earned Jones a QB4 finish last week wouldn’t have been better than QB9 in any other week this season, and would only have been a top-12 performance in two other weeks. He does not have the ceiling you want in a starting QB in 1-QB formats, even in a great matchup like this. The Pats don’t throw enough, and they don’t push the ball downfield enough when they do to make Mac a viable top-10 QB option. In superflex leagues, Mac is a great, safe QB2 play this week, but he’s nothing more than a fringe play if you’re looking for a QB1. I expect the Patriots to lean on their run game unless they’re somehow playing from behind and have to throw.

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. SF): Lawrence is coming off two terrible fantasy performances in the last two weeks but has a chance to bounce back against the 49ers. San Francisco looked great on Monday night slowing down Matt Stafford and the Rams, but for the season they’ve allowed the 7^th-most QB points per game and have been especially vulnerable to running quarterbacks. The 49ers have allowed 5 different QBs to run for more than 20 yards against them (including Carson Wentz) and allowed 4 of them to run for a touchdown. Lawrence has run for 20+ yards five times this season, and that rushing upside this week could provide a boost. He’s only in play in superflex leagues, but Trevor is a better play this week than you might think.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 11: @Atl.): It’s hard to not be excited by the game Rhamondre put up last Sunday, rolling to 114 scrimmage yards, a pair of touchdowns, and an RB2 overall finish with Damien Harris sidelined by a concussion. We all want to see more Rhamondre, and the hope is that Bill Belichick rides Stevenson’s hot hand rather than give the job back to Damien Harris. I’m not confident that’s going to happen. Stevenson has played more snaps than Harris just twice all season. One of those games was in week 5 against the Texans, where Harris battled through an injury suffered early in the game and the Patriots battled a negative game script. The other was last week when Harris was inactive. Outside of those two games Harris has functioned as the clear lead back, and I expect that to happen again Thursday night. The good news for Rhamondre is that the Patriots are a touchdown favorite and will probably have ample opportunity to run the ball. He’s also more involved in the passing game than Harris. If you’re considering Stevenson, I expect him to have around a dozen touches operating as the RB2 behind Harris, maybe a bit more if the Pats pull away. He’s an upside flex option.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 11: @Jax.): Mitchell came away from last week’s win over the Rams with a broken finger that has kept him out of practice this week. Kyle Shanahan still expects him to play this week, but you need to make sure he’s active before plugging him in. It’s worth mentioning that the return of Jeff Wilson Jr. looks like it’s going to be a problem for Mitchell. Elijah played his lowest snap share since week 4, and even gave way to Deebo Samuel for some RB snaps. You could argue the 49ers were resting him due to being way ahead for much of the night, but Mitchell was in the game getting carries on the 49ers final drive. The injury this week just makes it even more likely that he plays less than his usual workload. The Jaguars are not as inviting a matchup as you’d think. Jacksonville ranks 7^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 13^th-fewest RB rushing yards per game despite the fact they’re usually playing from behind. I think Mitchell is a dicey flex option this week, especially if your league gives points for receptions. Mitchell should be able to carry the ball with a pin in his broken finger, but catching it? I’m not so sure. He could see even less receiving work than usual.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 11: @Chi.): Bateman was frustratingly rotated with Sammy Watkins for much of last Thursday’s game, but down the stretch when the Ravens needed to throw, Bateman was heavily involved. Marquise Brown isn’t practicing as of Thursday, and that means Bateman could function as the team’s WR1 this week. He’s averaged 7 targets per game since his return from IR, and the Bears are allowing the 4^th-most WR points per game and rank 19^th in pass defense DVOA. If Brown plays, Bateman is an upside WR3 option again this week, but if Brown sits, it pushes Shoddy B closer to the WR2 range.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 11: vs. NO): Smith has posted back-to-back 20-point games, but I’d give it some thought before firing him up in lineups this week. The Eagles have shifted their offense drastically toward the running game in recent weeks, averaging just 19 pass attempts per game in their last 3 contests. At some point, negative game script is going to force them back into throwing, but I’m not sure it’ll be this week against the Trevor Siemian-led Saints. If the Eagles don’t throw more, you’re counting on Smith making a big splash on limited volume if you play him, and he gets a tough individual matchup with week with shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore. Smith is only getting open against man coverage about 32% of the time per PFF’s Arjun Menon. That ranks 122^nd out of 154 qualified pass catchers. Lattimore hasn’t been quite himself this year, allowing nearly 10 yards per target and a 103 passer rating into his coverage, but he’s limited other top options he’s shadowed like Davante Adams (5-56 on 7 targets), Terry McLaurin (4-46 on 11 targets), and Mike Evans (2-48-1 on 4 targets). Smith still has plenty of upside to be started as a WR3, but there is considerable risk that he puts up a clunker. Be aware of it if you’re considering him for lineups.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): Week 10 had some positive signs for Moore, and some negative ones. The positive is that he got in the end zone again and he reached double-digit fantasy points for the 3^rd week in a row. He also showed a quick rapport with week 11 starter Joe Flacco, catching two of the three completions Flacco threw, including the TD. The negative is that he played only 56% of the offensive snaps and was ceding playing time to Keelan Cole, Braxton Berrios and Jeff Smith. The return of Corey Davis showed that Davis is still clearly the WR1 in this offense. If the rapport with Flacco carries over, Moore should have no problem overcoming the limited playing time and being a solid WR4 option this week, but that remains to be seen. It is a good matchup. The Dolphins allow the 3^rd-most WR points per game. You just have to ask yourself if you trust Joe Flacco.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 11: @LAC): The Steelers are building their game plan for this week as though Mason Rudolph is going to be under center again. That’s not good news for Freiermuth or any other Steelers’ pass-catcher. Freiermuth saw a season-high 9 targets with Rudolph under center but posted his worst fantasy game since prior to JuJu Smith-Schuster’s season ending injury. He’s going to be heavily involved in the offense even with Rudolph at QB, but the volume from Rudolph just doesn’t go as far as volume from Big Ben. The Chargers allow the 4^th-most TE points per game, so the matchup is a good one. I’d treat Freiermuth as a top-15 option with Rudolph at QB, and a top-10 option if Big Ben is able to play.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): Fields has made strides in recent performances and has had an extra week to prepare for the Ravens, but I don’t like his chances of posting a big fantasy day in this one. Fields was the QB12 from week 6 through week 9, the span of his last 4 games, but 45% of his fantasy output came from his rushing production. He rushed for at least 38 yards in each game. No starting QB facing the Ravens this season has run for more than 12 yards. The Ravens allow the 11^th-most QB points per game, but I’m not counting on Fields to take advantage of this matchup. I view him as a low-end QB2 in week 11.

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): Wilson was a full participant in practice last Friday before being ultimately being inactive on Sunday. He seemed to be trending toward a week 11 return, but the Jets announced Wednesday that Joe Flacco will get the start instead. It would’ve been a favorable matchup for the rookie against a defense that ranks 30^th in pass defense DVOA, but his only hope to make an impact would be a mid-game substitution like Tua had against the Ravens last week. Hopefully Wilson can return in week 12.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 11: vs. NO): In the absence of Miles Sanders, it’s become obvious that Kenneth Gainwell is going to be limited to being just a receiving down back for the Eagles used mostly in obvious passing situations, and they just haven’t had many obvious passing situations in recent weeks. The Eagles have committed to running the football, and the result has been much better game scripts, which limit Gainwell’s opportunity. He’s touched the ball just 5 times in the last 2 weeks, and I don’t expect the return of Sanders to change the team’s game plan.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Was.): Hubbard handled 9 rushing attempts and got into the end zone in week 10, but he did so on just 16 snaps in a blowout win over the Cardinals. 8 of Chuba’s 9 carries came with the Panthers up by at least 3 scores. It’s not impossible that they get way up again this week, but that’s not usage you want to bet on. Chuba remains just a CMC handcuff.

 RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): In David Montgomery’s return to action in week 9, Herbert played just 10 snaps and handled 4 rushing attempts. This is David Montgomery’s backfield.

RB Larry Rountree II, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): Like Chuba, Rountree got into the end zone last weekend on limited opportunities. He hasn’t played 10+ snaps since week 4. There’s no need to consider him.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 11: @Sea.): Rondale has now gone 5 consecutive weeks with fewer than 30 scrimmage yards and fewer than 8 PPR points. He’s getting nothing but short targets, no matter who is at QB. With AJ Green’s return last week, Moore’s snap share dropped from 81% in week 9 to 33% in week 10. There is a silver lining for Moore in that the Seahawks allow the 5^th-most yards after catch in the league, but he’s no more than a low-priced dart throw in DFS tournaments.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 11: @TB): The upside with Toney is tantalizing, but we can’t let ourselves be tricked into chasing fool’s gold. We saw the ceiling in weeks 4 & 5 as Toney totaled 16 catches and 267 yards, but outside of those two games he’s totaled 12 catches for 85 yards the rest of the season. The Giants have consistently proven that they don’t know how to effectively get Toney involved, and I wouldn’t chase the upside with Toney this week. Yes the Giants will have to throw a lot, and yes the Bucs allow the 12^th-most WR points per game, but Toney is still going to end up with something like 4-25 on 5 targets.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Was): With Cam Newton under center, look for the Panthers’ offense to transition to using significantly more 2-tight end sets to sell the threat of the power run game with Cam. This is going to mean less playing time for Marshall, who functions as the team’s WR3.Thanks to a very positive game script last week, we already got a preview of what that might look like moving forward with Terrace playing just 24% of the offensive snaps. This is a plus matchup for a WR, with Washington allowing the 2^nd-most points per game to the position, but you can’t count on Marshall given the amount of playing time he’s been getting lately. Keep him parked on the bench unless we see a drastic change in his usage in the next couple weeks as Cam gets settled in.

WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 11: @Car.): Brown returned from injury last week, but basically functioned as the team’s WR5, even with Curtis Samuel still sidelined. It looks as though DeAndre Carter has earned that WR2 role opposite Terry McLaurin, and Adam Humphries has manned the slot. Fellow rookie Dax Milne is even playing ahead of Brown at this point. Milne isn’t playing enough to warrant fantasy consideration – he’s tallied just 5 catches for 60 yards in the last 3 weeks, but he’s got more value than Brown at this point.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): Eskridge finally got back on the field last week but played a very limited role. Freddie Swain and Penny Hart were each on the field significantly more than Eskridge, but the team did make an effort to get the ball to Eskridge when he was on the field. He was targeted twice on just 5 offensive snaps last week. He’s worth continuing to monitor, but he should be on the waiver wire in most redraft formats.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 11: @Car.): Don’t fall into the trap here. Ricky Seals-Jones isn’t practicing as of Thursday, and Logan Thomas is no sure thing to return either. That leaves Bates as the starting TE if both are out. There isn’t much upside to chase here though. In his last two college seasons, Bates averaged just 2.4 catches and 28 receiving yards per game, and the Panthers have allowed the 13^th-fewest TE points per game. You’d have to be very desperate to use Bates in fantasy lineups this week. The only place I’d look at him is in a Showdown DFS contest for this game.

Rookies on Bye in week 11: RB Javonte Williams, DEN, RB Jake Funk, LAR, WR Tutu Atwell, LAR

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 11: @Cle.): Amon-Ra hasn’t put up many fantasy performances to be excited about, but he’s averaged nearly 6 targets per game over the last 6 games and gets easily the best individual matchup of any Detroit wide receiver this week. The Lions are double-digit underdogs in Cleveland, so they should be throwing a bunch. Cleveland’s slot corner, Troy Hill, has allowed a whopping 134.4 passer rating on throws into his coverage, and that’s who ARSB will match up with. Detroit may be missing Jared Goff, but I don’t believe Tim Boyle or David Blough will be a notable downgrade at the position given how bad Goff has been. Keep an eye on team updates if considering Amon-Ra. Josh Reynolds may get more involved this week now that he should be up to speed. I don’t expect increased Reynolds snaps to come from St. Brown though. I’d view ARSB as a PPR WR4 consideration, and as a guy to target in DFS Showdown contests for this game.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 11: @Ten.): Collins shouldn’t be in consideration in most fantasy formats, but he could be in prime position to post his best game of the season. The Titans are a double-digit favorite, so that should keep the Texans throwing the ball, and Tennessee has allowed more WR catches and receiving yards than any other team in the league. Brandin Cooks is the obvious beneficiary of this matchup, but Collins has functioned as the clear WR2 since his return from IR. He’s no more than a bargain dart throw in DFS tournaments ($3,300 on DraftKings), but he’s got a higher ceiling this week than usual.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Was.): If you read what I wrote above about Terrace Marshall Jr., you know I think the Panthers utilize the tight end position more going forward. That means more playing time for Tremble. So far, his production has been lackluster with just 39 total receiving yards in the last 4 weeks, but he’s seen nearly double the targets that Ian Thomas has in that span, and Cam Newton likes to utilize the tight end position. Tremble played a season-high 68% of the offensive snaps last week. A spike in production is likely coming soon. Now is the time to stash Tremble in deeper leagues, especially in dynasty formats.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

14 Fantasy Points in 12 Minutes

Thursday night, we were treated to another marvelous fantasy performance from the New England Patriots D/ST. They put up a total of 28 points, good for the 7^th highest fantasy score on a week with some gigantic point totals.  The Patriots accounted for 15 of their points in just the 4^th quarter alone, starting it off with a sack of Matt Ryan on the first play of the quarter. They followed that up with 4 interceptions of three different passers, one of them being returned for a touchdown. They are now averaging 16.8 points per game over the last 5 weeks and are the top D/ST on the season, beating out the Buffalo Bills D/ST by 17 points. The Bills, the previous leaders in the position, did themselves no favors last week with a shocking -4-point performance, the worst score that can be put up by a D/ST.

1.48 Points Per Touch

Jonathan Taylor had a massive 35 total touches in his incredible game this weekend. Taylor had a career high 32 rushing attempts, scored 5 TDs (his previous career high was 2), and had 204 yards from scrimmage. His career high there is 254, so he has some work to do on that front, I suppose. Taylor scored 51.9 points on the day and managed to average 1.48 points per touch – anything north of 1 point per touch is generally considered very good from an RB. Taylor is now up to 1.10 points per touch on the season, which is incredible for a workhorse back who has 225 touches on the season now. Not to be outdone in efficiency, Austin Ekeler had a massive 2.26 points per touch on Sunday night. Ekeler might not have found the end zone 5 times, but 4 wasn’t bad, on his way to 38.5 total fantasy points and a distant second place finish for total fantasy points on the week. Ekeler is the first player in 10 years to have 2 rushing and 2 receiving TDs in the same game. The last time it happened was Maurice Jones-Drew on December 11, 2011.

253.04 Fantasy Points

The number one player in all of fantasy player this season is now Jalen Hurts, just as we all suspected. Hurts has managed this with a 61.6% completion rate, good for 34^th among qualifying QBs, and a 90.4 QB rating, good for 26^th among qualifying QBs. Hurts is making a mockery of what we once considered to be a good QB in the league, but it’s hard to argue with his 618 rushing yards (9^th among all players) and 8 touchdowns on the ground (5^th among all players). He does have a TD to INT ratio of 13:5 which, admittedly, is not atrocious, but is certainly nothing to brag about either. If Hurts only ran the ball, he would be the RB23 on the season, but when you add in his passing stats and consider the fact that there are no particularly dominant QBs this season among the traditional talents, you get the top play in all of fantasy football. Hurts was drafted as the QB12 this year, 95^th overall on average. With a big game tonight, at least 31.14 points, Tom Brady could restore some order to all of this chaos. But then again, it’s not like me to root for Brady, so let chaos reign!

23 Fantasy Points Per Game

The RB3 on the season is still Derrick Henry, with 184.3 fantasy points in just 8 weeks, he was averaging 23 points per game when he was put on the IR. That’s still the best non-QB average points per game this season. There are only 5 QBs who have a better per-game average, by the way. Henry was on a pace to have a career year, and he still is likely to finish in the top 20 of total scrimmage yards by RBs this year, and probably will be a top-10 finisher among RBs with 11 total touchdowns. I don’t normally write these blurbs about players who are done for the season (the fantasy season, anyways), but last week we were missing 6 of the top 20 scoring RBs who were out with either injuries or bye weeks, so I thought it was appropriate to make one more toast to King Henry the Titan.

4.64 Yards Per Catch

Rondale Moore has the distinction this week of leading the league in receptions with 11. No other player had more than 9 catches, so congrats to the man who had 11 catches….and 10.6 total points in half PPR. 51 yards is all he could manage on 11 catches. Moore had 2 catches netting him negative yards. His longest catch on the day was 11 yards. Moore sits as the WR27 on the week, a feat that is absurdly hard to do when you have 11 receptions. At least he was a perfect 11 for 11 on the day, catching every single one of his targets, even if maybe he should have just gone ahead and dropped his -5-yard reception. There were 8 wide receivers who had fewer yards than he did, but still managed to score more points. All of those players found the end zone. This game rivals the stat line that Cole Beasley put up in week 9, 8 receptions for 33 yards totaling 7.3 points.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report and Happy Turkey Day! Hopefully your teams are well positioned for the final playoff push with just 3 weeks remaining before the fantasy playoffs. Week 11 felt like a return to fantasy normalcy after a tumultuous and unpredictable few weeks before it. We still saw a couple big upsets (Texans over the Titans, Colts over the Bills), but for the most part the good fantasy players performed well in week 11, and the rookies were no exception. Ja’Marr Chase and Najee Harris each got back into the end zone after failing to do so in their previous games. DeVonta Smith topped 60 yards for the 3^rd straight game, Elijah Moore topped 10 PPR points for the 5^th straight, and the trio of Kadarius Toney, Jaylen Waddle, and Rondale Moore each had a reception bonanza despite minimal yardage. The rookies should have plenty more in store for us in week 12.

I’m going to try something a little different with the Rookie Report this week. Every week I try to touch on every fantasy relevant rookie, but realistically you don’t need several sentences to tell you not to start Larry Rountree III in your lineups. With that in mind, I’m going to have two brief sections on rookies you already know to start, and rookies you already know to sit, with just a brief stat about each. I’m going to split the ‘Borderline Rookies’ section into guys that I’d lean toward starting, and guys that I’d lean toward sitting, and will finish as always with the ‘Deep League Sleepers.’ Hopefully you find this format a little more useful going forward.

The same usual notes still apply – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all mentions of points per game and points allowed are in half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 12…

Rookies you Already Know you Should Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Harris’ lightest workload since week 2 still resulted in 17 touches and an RB12 finish last weekend. The Bengals have allowed the 9^th-most points per game to opposing backs.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Chase earned his second-lowest target total of the season in the first go-round with the Steelers but finished that game with a 20-point fantasy day. Chase’s overall production has been a little lower in his last 3 games, but he’s still cleared 10 fantasy points in all but one game this season.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): Since Tua’s return from injury in week 6, Waddle has garnered 8+ targets in 5 of 6 games, 7+ receptions in 4 of 6, and 60+ yards in 5 of 6. He’s been the PPR WR17 in points per game in that span. The Panthers have allowed the 4^th-fewest WR points per game this season, so I could see being hesitant to get him in the lineup in non-PPR formats, but don’t let the Panthers scare you off in full PPR (and probably not in half-PPR either).

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Please note that I only suggest starting Jones in superflex formats or leagues deeper than 12 teams, but this is a week where he has more upside than usual. The Colts and Texans are the only teams all year to fall short of 270 passing yards against the Titans this season, and this game should have the least favorable game script the Patriots have faced in the last few weeks after 3 straight easy wins. Jones has averaged just 22 pass attempts per game in the last 3 weeks after throwing 30+ times in 7 of his first 8 games. I expect Jones to get back to 30+ attempts in this game, and assuming he’s his usual, efficient self with those attempts, he’s going to likely finish as a high-end QB2.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): Ahead of Denver’s week 11 bye, Javonte played more snaps in a game than teammate Melvin Gordon for just the 2^nd time all season. While I doubt it’s a true changing of the guard, it would be wise for Denver to give Williams more playing time down the stretch as they take their last swings at staying in the playoff chase. Williams has consistently looked like the better back. Week 12 brings one of the best matchups of the season for this backfield. The Chargers have allowed the 4^th-most running back points per game, and rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Even with a split workload, this is a great opportunity for Javonte to post a top-20 performance. If his edge in playing time over Gordon continues, he could push even higher. You may have more trustworthy options than Williams on your roster, but this is a week where Javonte should have one of his best performances of the season.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 12: @NYG): Smith has continued to produce at a high level over the last 3 weeks even though the Eagles have transitioned to being a run-heavy football team, but his margin for error is smaller in the current version of the offense. Jalen Hurts has attempted just 21 passes per game in the last 3 weeks, but each week 6 of those attempts have gone in Smith’s direction, and he’s been efficient with those targets. Smith has scored 3 TDs in that span and posted 3 of his 4 best single-game yards per target marks of the season. Can he continue to turn limited volume into fantasy gold this week? I wouldn’t consider it automatic, but the matchup isn’t one to be afraid of. The Giants have allowed the 12^th-most WR points per game, and shadow corner James Bradberry hasn’t been the same player in 2021 that he was in 2020. Bradberry is allowing the highest marks he’s allowed on throws into his coverage in passer rating, yards per target, and yards per completion since his rookie year in 2018, and he’s seen his PFF coverage grade drop from 79.9 in 2020 to 64.8 in 2021. He still isn’t a complete pushover, so I wouldn’t pencil in a 5-60-1 line for the rookie just yet, but there aren’t many receivers you’d be considering around Smith’s range that have the kind of ceiling he does.

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): The return of Lamar Jackson should mean good things for Bateman. The rookie had averaged 70 receiving yards on nearly 5 catches per game in the last 3 games he played with Lamar before putting up a dud with Tyler Huntley under center in week 11. The Browns have allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game and have allowed 10+ fantasy points to 10 different receivers in the last 6 games. If Marquise Brown is out again, Bateman will likely tangle mostly with Browns’ top corner Denzel Ward, but I’d expect the bump in volume that would come along with Brown’s absence to offset the tougher individual matchup. Bateman is a reasonable WR3 option in all formats.

WR Kadarius Toney, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Phi.): Toney finally looked to be fully healthy on Monday night against the Bucs, and the Giants made an aggressive effort to get him the football, targeting him on more than a third of his offensive snaps. All of those targets resulted in just 40 yards on 7 catches, but he gets a matchup favorable to his skill set this week. The Eagles play a lot of Cover 2 zone defense, which should leave a lot of holes for Toney to settle into underneath the deep safeties. Philly also allows the 14^th-most yards after catch, which means Toney could have some success piling up extra yards with the ball in his hands. If Toney is used the same way he was last week, I think a dozen or more fantasy points are in the offing for him. The biggest wild card here is what kind of offensive changes Freddie Kitchens will implement in his first week as interim OC. Kitchens’ one full season in charge of Cleveland’s play-calling included more than 8 targets per game for Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., so he knows to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Toney is the best playmaker the Giants have at wide receiver.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 12: @Jax.): It’s getting harder each week to trust Pitts in your lineups with each dud he posts, but I urge you to ride with the rookie for another week. It’s been more than 4 weeks since the last time Pitts scored more than 10 PPR points, but I’m confident he’s going to get there this week. The Jaguars have allowed just the 12^th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, but that number is worse than it looks. They’ve only faced 4 tight ends all season that rank in the top-20 in PPR points per game, and all 4 of them scored at least 13 points against Jacksonville. I fully expect Pitts to make it 5 out of 5.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Freiermuth played his lowest snap share since week 5 on Sunday night, but he still saw 7 targets come his way and scored a touchdown again. He now has at least 6 targets and 4 catches in 5 straight games and has gotten into the end zone 4 times in that span. The player who was taking his snaps in week 11, Eric Ebron, is expected to need knee surgery and is out for the foreseeable future. That means the rookie should go back up to a 70%+ snap share going forward. Freiermuth’s week 12 opponents, the Bengals, have given up a tight end touchdown in each of the last 3 games, and Muth himself got in the end zone against them in week 3. Freiermuth looks like a low-end top-10 play this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 12: vs. Atl.): A matchup against the defense allowing the 3^rd-most QB points per game is enough to get any QB consideration in 2-QB leagues, but this Jacksonville offense hasn’t shown enough life to trust Lawrence even in this prime spot. The Jaguars as a team have scored just 36 total points in the last 3 weeks. Trevor has accounted for more than 1 touchdown in just one of his last 9 games and has accounted for zero total touchdowns in the last 3 games combined. His best hope for fantasy production may be his legs. The Falcons have allowed 5 different QBs to run for over 25 yards, and two of them to run for over 60. Lawrence has rushed for 20+ yards 6 times this year. At the end of the day, starting Lawrence as your QB2 means you’re betting on him to post his best game in over a month. An inviting matchup isn’t enough to get me to make that bet.

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): You might look at the opponent next to Wilson’s name and be tempted to consider him as a streamer in 2-QB leagues this week, but I’d caution against that. It’s true the Texans allowed 17+ QB points in 7 of their first 8 games and 20+ in 5 of them, but Wilson hasn’t shown that he can take advantage of a matchup like this yet and his floor is very low. Wilson failed to record a touchdown in 3 of the 5 full games he’s played, and you’re playing with fire if you’re counting on a big performance after a 5-week layoff. He’ll be shaking off the rust in this one, and while he may be able to lead his team to a win against the Texans, he’s less likely to lead your fantasy team to the same.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): If Mitchell can play this week, this isn’t a terrible spot to fire him up as a flex play, but it’s not a great one either. The 49ers offense has looked the best it’s looked all season in the last few weeks, and they face a Minnesota defense that ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 11^th-most running back points per game. On paper, it looks like a great spot to play a starting running back in a run-first offense. The question is whether Mitchell will see a full starting running back workload. Mitchell played his lowest snap share of the season week 10 in Jeff Wilson Jr.’s first game back from IR, and the 49ers have utilized Deebo Samuel out of the backfield frequently in the last two weeks. Add in that Mitchell is still nursing that finger injury, and it’s easy to see him playing a smaller role than usual. When you also consider that he isn’t used as a pass-catcher, the potential path to a dud performance in this smash spot gets clearer. You could do worse than Mitchell in your lineups, but there’s more risk here than you’d think. Keep on eye on the injury updates from the 49ers if you’re considering using Mitchell.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): I love what we’ve seen out of Stevenson in recent weeks, but he’s in a full-fledged committee with Damien Harris and Brandon Bolden right now, and the Titans have allowed the 4^th-fewest running back points per game. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the rookie post another impressive game, but he’s likely going to be doing so from my bench unless I have limited options. Stevenson has handled at least a dozen touches and posted 70+ scrimmage yards in 3 straight games, but Damien Harris missed most of 2 of those games, and the other was a blowout win over the Falcons. I’m not counting on another 70-yard day on a dozen touches.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): It will certainly feel counterintuitive to sit Moore given the production he’s put up in recent weeks, but it might be the right play with Zach Wilson getting the start for the Jets. Moore has been targeted at least 6 times in each of the last 5 games. He found the end zone in 4 of them, and topped 60 receiving yards in the other, but Zach Wilson started only one of those games, and he was injured and replaced by Mike White in the first half of it. Moore has totaled just 98 scrimmage yards and 1 TD in the 5 games he’s played that Wilson started. That could turn around going forward. Wilson was drafted 2^nd overall for a reason, and Moore has clearly carved out a big role in this offense, but their shaky connection has me worried for week 12. Houston isn’t an imposing matchup. The Texans allow the 9^th-most WR points per game. Moore is very much in play as a WR3 again this week, but I wouldn’t be plugging him in over other strong options this week.

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Bates isn’t a guy I would usually give much consideration to, but he played an eye-popping 99% of Washington’s offensive snaps in week 11. He turned all of that playing time into just 3 catches for 23 yards. Logan Thomas did have his practice window opened to return from IR, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be active in week 12. If Thomas sits, Bates is no more than a desperation plug-in this week.

Rookies you Already Know you Should Sit:

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): Andy Dalton is getting the start on Turkey Day.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Sermon handled 10 carries and 1 target last Sunday while splitting the backfield with Jeff Wilson Jr. in Elijah Mitchell’s absence. The 49ers opened up a 21-3 lead before Sermon got his 2^nd touch of the game. His work was mostly in garbage time, and Mitchell is expected back this week.

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): There is a little upside for Patterson this week against a Seattle defense that has allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game and ranks 25^th in run defense DVOA, but this feels like a JD McKissic week where the Football Team may be chasing points in a get-right game for Seattle’s offense. Patterson has carried the ball 22 times in the last 3 games, but he’s played just 34 offensive snaps. If you think Washington wins this week, Patterson has more upside than I’m giving him credit for.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 12: @Den.): The Chargers have played musical chairs with their RB2 spot this season, but Rountree hasn’t rushed for more than 11 yards since week 4.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): In Cam Newton’s first start this season, Hubbard went from change-of-pace back to complete afterthought, playing just one offensive snap. I don’t know if CMC played a higher snap share because he’s a week healthier, or if it was because there were fewer total plays as they played a slower tempo with Cam under center (Panthers ran 51 offensive plays in week 11 after running 75 in week 10). Either way, Hubbard isn’t going to play much this week unless it’s a blowout win.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): Since the return of David Montgomery two weeks ago, Herbert has played just 17 offensive snaps and touched the ball 5 times.

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): In the two games where Jefferson found the end zone, he played a total of just 14 snaps, and Jamaal Williams missed both games. He’s yet to play an offensive snap in a game that Jamaal Williams was active for.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Samaje Perine has stolen Evans’ pass-catching role behind Joe Mixon, and it was already a small role to begin with.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Felton has handled more than 3 touches in just one game, and both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were inactive for it. Both should be active this week.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 12: @Hou.): If you missed the news, Carter is out a couple weeks with injury.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. NYJ): Over the last 5 games since his return from IR, Collins has seen the following target totals: 6, 5, 4, 3, and 2. He’s still been on the field for over 50% of the offensive snaps each week, but that’s not a trend you want to chase this week, even against a Jets’ defense that is vulnerable pretty much everywhere.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): Much as I expected, the change to Cam Newton didn’t turn things around for Marshall. WR Brandon Zylstra has played nearly double the snaps that Marshall has in the last 2 weeks, and Terrace has just 3 catch-less targets in those games.

WRs Dax Milne & Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): This duo has played fewer combined snaps than Adam Humphries has seen in each of the last two weeks.

WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Schwartz missed last week’s game with a concussion suffered against the Patriots in week 10 and looks likely to miss this week as well. He’s posted fewer scrimmage yards in the last 10 weeks combined than he did in week 1.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 12: @Mia.): I think there are some spike weeks coming for Tremble, but I’m not ready to bank on this being one of them. It took just 2 targets from Cam Newton for Tremble to post his best yardage day of the season last week, but 2 or 3 targets aren’t likely to get it done against a Miami defense that has only allowed Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and Mo-Alie Cox to reach 10 fantasy points against them at tight end.

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. NYJ): Jordan is starting to get more regular playing time, but not enough that he’s a realistic lineup consideration. He’s totaled 6 catches for 57 yards and a score in the 3 games he’s been active for.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 12: @NYG): Gainwell has kind of been the forgotten man in Philly’s backfield in the last couple weeks. He was a healthy scratch in week 11, but he’s going to be active this week after an injury to Jordan Howard, and I like his chances to be a factor. Gainwell is the most skilled receiving back of the Eagles’ trio, and the Giants allow the 6^th-most running back receiving yards per game. Two of Gainwell’s 3 biggest fantasy days came against the defenses allowing the 5^th and 7^th-most RB receiving yards per game. He hasn’t faced any other teams in the top 8. Gainwell is obviously a risky play given how little he’s been involved in recent weeks, but he costs less than half what Boston Scott does on DraftKings for showdown contests, and I like his odds to outproduce his teammate in this one.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): I didn’t think it was possible to believe this, but Detroit’s pass catchers have to be relieved to see Jared Goff is slated to return this week after the performance from Tim Boyle last Sunday. ARSB pulled in all 4 of his targets for just 18 yards. That represented 23.3% of Boyle’s total passing yardage. This week St. Brown gets to face a Bears’ defense that allowed him to post 6 catches for 70 yards in their first meeting, and the Chicago secondary has gone downhill since then. ARSB’s most frequent matchup will be with Chicago slot corner Duke Shelley. Shelley has allowed 9 yards per target and a completion percentage of over 77% on throws into his coverage. I wouldn’t be eager to get any Lion WRs into my season-long lineups, but if you’re looking for a Detroit receiver to target in Thanksgiving DFS contests, Amon-Ra is my favorite option this week.

WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 12: @NE): Fitzpatrick has been quite the redemption story in recent weeks. He was a 4^th-round pick last spring but failed to make the Titans’ roster out of training camp, and instead was relegated to the practice squad. He’s worked his way back up to the active roster, and now finds himself in a prominent role in the offense as we head into week 12. Julio Jones and Marcus Johnson are both on injured reserve, and AJ Brown is battling a couple injuries suffered last Sunday. Fitzpatrick stepped in admirably, earning 6 targets and scoring his first career touchdown against the Texans. He’s likely to avoid New England’s top cover corner JC Jackson whether AJ Brown plays or not, and he could be in line for another 6+ targets. He’s an intriguing cheap DFS play and should be rostered in most dynasty formats.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 12: @Was.): This one is a pure hunch, and one that shouldn’t be tried in any high-stakes contests, but I really like Seattle’s chances to get the offense back on track this week against a Washington defense that ranks 31^st in defense DVOA, ahead of only the Jets. Of course, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Alex Collins are the most likely beneficiaries if that happens, but this feels like the right week to dial up a couple shot plays for Eskridge on a big stage Monday night. He’ll likely cost close to the minimum for Monday Night showdown slate contests.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Be aware of which of your players have a game on Thursday, and make sure you don’t miss out on getting them into your lineup because you were in a turkey coma. Also keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

16 Total TDs

Jonathan Taylor is the RB1 on the season, and the second highest scoring player among all fantasy football players. He and Josh Allen have supplanted Jalen Hurts at the top of the overall list, and now I can stop trash talking Jalen Hurts and let him just be bad in Philadelphia. Oops, maybe I’ll stop now. Anyways, Taylor has a league leading 16 total TDs on the season. He also leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 1,541. He has 35 more fantasy points than the next highest non-QB, Cooper Kupp – though Kupp has had a bye, and Taylor’s is coming up in Week 14. Taylor has an average of 22.2 points per game, still shy of Derrick Henry (still the 7^th highest point total among non-QBs) – who would just be the biggest story in the NFL if he had remained healthy and continued the pace that he was on. Back to Taylor, who nearly had a remarkable record. Last week he tied LaDanian Tomlinson with 8 straight games of 100+ scrimmage yards and 1 TD. In week 12, he came just 3 yards short of extending that streak to a record breaking 9 games.

2 Receptions for the WR1

This week’s stupid technicality stat comes to us courtesy of the most impressive hybrid player in the league, Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson has had RB and WR eligibility the entire season, and it makes sense, because he’s both! He is the WR7 on the season and the RB8, yet he only has one game over 100 receiving yards, and 1 game – this week – over 100 rushing yards. He does have 6 games over 100 total yards (including return yards, he really does do it all) and has 9 total touchdowns. He’s achieved at quite a high level all year and has huge season long totals, despite having missed one week on bye, and another week with an injury. It’s very rare for a player to finally break out in his 9^th season, on his 5^th team. Patterson is someone that offensive coordinators have tried to unlock all over the league, and it’s one of the least likely storylines this season that the Falcons offense, of all teams, have managed to figure out how to make him one of the top 10 offensive weapons in the entire league. Perhaps the credit should fall to Patterson himself, considering the Falcons offense is 27^th in total points and 26^th in total yards.

10 TEs over 10 Points

Most weeks you can find 8-10 TEs scoring at least double-digit points, so that’s perhaps not the most impressive stat I can provide you here. What I am proud of is that 6 of those 10 tight ends are owned in the drinkfive fantasy league. Unfortunately, none of the next 10 are rostered, giving us a 30% hit rate among the top 20 tight ends for week 12. In a cruel twist of ownership, 8 of the top 11 TEs that are the most owned TEs in all of Fleaflicker scored just 4.3 points or fewer (Darren Waller gets the ominous distinction of being the tallest…er…bad tight end this week). Jack Doyle led the way this week, in the second lowest TE1 score that we’ve seen all season long (T.J. Hockenson’s 13.9 points in week 8 get that award). Tonight’s game should see the return of Logan Thomas, who averaged 9 points per game, so at least there’s a bit of quality returning to the TE pool.

2 Losing Teams Over 200 Rushing Yards

Back when the NFL was a run-heavy league, a team that got to 200+ rushing yards was almost guaranteed a win. This week, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tennessee Titans both dominated their opponents on the ground, but were unable to turn that into control of the game. They both lacked a clear lead in the time of possession, and ultimately, on the scoreboard. The only other team that rushed for at least 200 yards was the San Fransisco 49ers, who did dominate the time of possession, still needed to cash in on two quick turnovers by the Vikings in the 3^rd quarter to take control of the game in order to use the rushing attack to their advantage. In both the Eagles’ and Titans’ case, their problem was terrible QB play that prevented them from scoring points. Neither team could top 130 yards passing, both of them threw the ball to the other team, and both had an abysmal completion percentage to boot. The NFL is a game of passing attacks with the run game complimenting it, just ask the Raiders with Derek Carr’s 6-0 record when he throws for at least 300 yards. They are 0-5 when he does not reach the 300-yard mark.

2 TDs in 4 Straight Games

Joe Mixon is quietly keeping his team firmly in the playoff chase with a feat that has not been seen for 15 years in the NFL. Mixon has 2 touchdowns in 4 consecutive games now, with 13 total on the season. Mixon has scored every single week since week 4, and only has 2 games this season where he did not find the end zone. He has at least 23 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games and is now sitting as the RB3 on the season. He is just one of 5 non-QBs that have eclipsed the 200-point mark for the season. He has picked up where his rookie teammate Ja’Marr Chase has left off. Chase started out the season on a tear, but has not gone over 50 yards in each of his last 4 games (since he blew up for 201 yards) and those are his 4 lowest totals on the season. Joe Burrow, likewise, has struggled lately, throwing only 2 TDs in the last 3 games, with 3 INT over that same time period (one of those going back to the house the other way). Mixon IS the Bengals offense at this point, and has a matchup coming up against the Chargers, giving up the 5^th most points to opposing RBs.