Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

 

37 Pass Completions

 

Jets QB Mike White set an NFL record with 37 pass completions in his very first start, but the fun numbers from the game did not stop there. White set the second-highest yardage total in a first start with 406, which was good for the most yardage so far in Week 8. White posted the highest yardage total for a Jets QB since Vinny Testaverde in 2000. White finished the Week as the QB2 in fantasy, the best of the QBs who are not owned in many leagues in a week dominated by guys like that. 5 of the top 10 QBs this week, so far, are not rostered on any team in the drinkfive.com league and have an average ownership rate of just under 30% in Fleaflicker leagues. White has certainly earned himself a chance to start another week or two, and may even find himself as the permanent starter if he continues to play at a high level like this. It’s really a tough break for all of us who said “Mike White? Who the hell is that?” and proceeded to pick the Bengals in our survivor pools.

 

331 Yards Per Game

 

Tom Brady, at age 44, is currently dominating in many statistical passing categories. He currently leads the league in completions, pass attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. He is the QB1 on the season with 206.9 total fantasy points in just 8 games. Only Josh Allen has a higher PPG average than Brady, but sits as the QB2 due to bye weeks. Allen isn’t really putting up the passing numbers that Brady is either, with Allen’s fantasy points bolstered by 269 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs. But, back to Brady, who put up another ho-hum performance yesterday of 375 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. Heck, he even threw a touchdown to the wrong team yesterday, which is the only thing that keeps him from passing the aforementioned Mike White as the QB2 for the week. Brady’s huge offensive output has kept 3 of his WRs as regular starts, when healthy. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown are all in the top 22 WRs by total fantasy points. If you look at them on a points per game basis, they are all ranked in the top 19.

 

137 Rush Yards

 

Elijah Mitchell is the only running back so far in Week 8 to have surpassed the 100 rushing yard mark. In an era where the traditional running back role seems to be disappearing week by week – and we lost our #1 boy this week, perhaps for the season – it’s increasingly rare to find someone top 100 yards rushing. This doesn’t mean that RBs are necessarily going away, they just get their points in a variety of ways. This week, 23 RBs had at least 10 points or more, so there’s plenty of good players out there still, but it’s so clear that this is a passing league now. 8 wide receivers passed the century mark on Sunday (no RBs or TEs joined them with 100+ receiving yards). Speaking of passers – the only other player with 100+ rushing yards this week is Justin Fields, who had 103 yards in a losing effort against Mitchell’s 49ers. Perhaps it’s fitting that the last bastion of 100-yard rushers is Soldier Field, for this week anyway.

 

4 WRs with 10+ Receptions

 

Illustrating my point about this being a passing-dominated league, which I suppose I seem to make at least a couple of times per year, is the fact that this week had the most players with 10+ catches of any this year. This week, we saw Tyler Lockett, Cole Beasley, A.J. Brown, and Michael Pittman all catch at least 4 passes. All but Pittman went over 100 yards as well, but Pittman managed to find the end zone twice, so we’ll still give him an A+ for his fantasy day. There were 3 weeks with 3 WRs at 10+ receptions, and 3 weeks with just 1 WR with 10+ receptions. Even with the 17^th game added this season, the season-long receptions record, set by Michael Thomas in 2019, seems perfectly safe. Currently, Cooper Kupp leads the league in receptions and is only on pace for about 133 receptions on the year, good for just 5^th on the all-time list. Also, an honorable mention must go to T.J. Hockenson, the only non-WR to crack the 10 receptions mark this week. In fact, kudos to Hockenson, who has currently the TE1 on the week without even finding the end zone.

 

38.7 Receiving Yards Per Game

 

Odell Beckham Jr. has really fallen from the heights of the top WRs in the league. With just 38.7 yards per game, he is a long way from his 80.3 career average (it was 83.3 going into this season). In Odell’s rookie year, he led the league with 108.8 yards per game, and he posted double-digit TDs in each of his first 3 seasons. He now has just a 50% catch rate on the year (61% going into the season). He posted a season-low 1.1 fantasy points this week, his 4^th game of the year where he is below just 5 points. Odell is not alone, however. Allen Robinson has had an equally disappointing fantasy season. Since week 1, he has not topped 4 receptions in a game, and in 2021, he has not broken into double-digit fantasy points once. He is at less than half his yards per game, 33.9, than he had in his first 3 seasons in Chicago, 70.0. Robinson is the WR63 for the season, a truly terrible mark for someone who has not missed a game this year.

 

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

7 of the Top 12 QBs

 

Quarterback continues to be a volatile position in fantasy football. This certainly has not been the case in years past, but this week alone, 7 of the top 12 QBs by fantasy points are not owned in the Drinkfive league. Part of the issue is that many top guys were out with injury, bye weeks, or...other issues. Another problem is that many top guys under performed - Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes combined for fewer points than Josh Johnson. Of course, credit must go to Josh Johnson, who put up big numbers in the (garbage) time he had vs the Colts on Thursday night. Colt McCoy and Trevor Siemian also get big kudos for turning in good performances in their first starts of the season, finishing as the QB11 and QB12 respectively. Overall, the 7 QBs that are unowned in the top 12 represent just 38% average ownership (in Fleaflicker leagues) - that number also is heavily weighted by Matt Ryan’s 81% ownership rate - he’s a free agent in our league right now. So, the lesson here is that volatility can happen in any fantasy football market, including at the traditionally stable quarterback position. If you planned on streaming QBs this year and didn’t invest draft capital in a QB, you’re definitely benefiting from that decision now.

31.4 Fantasy Point Average for the Top 4 RBs

 

I’ve been pointing out the lack of production from the top of the running back position over the last few weeks, and especially how there’s tons of production from wide receivers. This week was the opposite of that - maybe they got my message? Anyways, we saw huge performances from James Conner (37.8), Jonathan Taylor (33), Nick Chubb (29.3), and Joe Mixon (25.5). This was better than any wide receiver for the week so far. In fact, the best wide receiver owned in 90% or more of Fleaflicker leagues is Keenan Allen, who finished as the 15th best flex player this week (RB/WR/TE). The top 4 RBs on the week combined for 9 touchdowns, 646 total yards, and averaged nearly 8 yards per touch. Quite the week from all 4 guys, all of whom put up their best fantasy game of the year. Final note - even after that huge week, Jonathan Taylor remains the RB2. Derrick Henry still has both more points and more rushing yards than Taylor.

3 WRs with 2 TDs

 

It was a down week for wide receivers for sure. Only 3 of them managed to find the end zone twice, and stop me if you’ve heard these names on this column before (you haven’t). Elijah Moore, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Malik Turner all found the end zone twice this week, and none of them managed to go over 100 yards receiving. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance from any of those three - they are owned in an average of 16% of Fleaflicker leagues. Most of that ownership is probably Elijah Moore in dynasty leagues. Only 4 wide receivers did reach the century mark for receiving yards - the same number of RBs who reached that number of rushing yards. This is the first week where the RBs were able to pace the WRs when it came to games over 100 yards - usually it’s close to a 2:1 ratio in favor of the wideouts. 

17.1 Fantasy Points

 

George Kittle returned to the lineup on Sunday, giving the TE position a much needed boost. In fact, we saw the top 3 drafted tight ends finish 1-2-3 so far on the week. George Kittle was the top finisher, scoring a touchdown and gaining over 100 yards, leading all tight ends in week 9. Travis Kelce was right behind him, and Darren Waller made the most out of his 11 targets, which led all tight ends this week. This is the first time since week 1 of this season that all 3 guys have finished in the top 10 scorers. Of course, after them, 4 of the next 5 TEs were owned in an average of less than 4% of Fleaflicker leagues. This just goes to show that all it takes to be a decent fantasy tight end is that you find the end zone. In fact, 8 of the top 10 TEs did find the end zone, and the #10 guy who didn’t, Jared Cook,  at least was able to get a few points from a 2-point conversion

10 D/STs over 10 points

 

10 points is a great benchmark for your defense/special teams slot. If you can get 10 or more points, you should definitely be happy. This week, there were plenty of opportunities for you to land a D/ST that could do that for you, but only if you chose wisely. The top team this week were the New England Patriots, the team that consistently just drinks Sam Darnold’s milkshake. The Pats put up 20 points with 3 picks (one of them a pick-six), a sack, and only 6 points allowed. Then it gets interesting. If you had the guts to pick against some of the top offenses in the league, then you stood a great chance of doing well. The Browns (vs CIN), Jaguars (vs BUF), and the Titans (@ LAR) all were able to score at least 16 fantasy points for you. Those three D/STs combined for 6 interceptions, 14 sacks, 2 defensive TDs, 2 fumble recoveries, and an average of just 13 points allowed. One other crazy thing about this week’s D/ST stats - the Texans and Dolphins played against each other and both teams scored at least 15 points against the opposing offense. Truly, that was a game that should have been played on Thursday night.

 

Here at drinkfive, we love trends, paradigms, fads, all sorts. Of course, you're here for some player info, and we're here to deliver! We like to look at players who are trending up or down for three straight weeks and break down why they're in the spot they are and if we think that will continue. Without further ado:

 

Carson Wentz (QB-IND) - Wk 7 @ SF 20.3, Wk 8 vs TEN 20.34, Wk 9 vs NYJ 24.18: Before this stretch, Wentz had only one game above 20 points. Now he’s strung together three straight good games. He’s the QB7 over the last 3 games. The Jets pass defense is doing well this year, and he had the best fantasy game against them this year. The Colts offense is really rolling - 30+ points in the last 4 straight games. Wentz is also connecting with Pittman, he has 4 touchdowns over the last 3 games. The Colts are not on bye till week 14. They have good matchups coming up with 3 of their next 4 opponents giving up top 12 fantasy points to opposing QBs.

Damien Harris (RB-NE) - Wk 7 @ NYJ 24.3, Wk 8 @ LAC 14.0, Wk 9 @ CAR 9.8: Harris may have peaked against the Jets this year. Now he’s not practicing with a concussion. Last week, Rhamondre Stevenson had over 100 yards, got 12 touches and was in on only 27% of offensive snaps. Harris is not being used in the passing game much at all, he only has 3 targets once this year. Avoid the curse of the Belichick RBs. Two of the next three matchups for Harris are against teams giving up top 10 fewest points to opposing RBs. His bye in week 14 is still upcoming. Harris’s value is fading fast.

Elijah Moore (WR-NYJ) - Wk 7 @ NE 9.7, Wk 8 vs CIN 10.1, Wk 9 @ IND 23.9: Moore has had his share of targets in the games that he’s played so far this year, but he was really able to turn it on the last couple of weeks since Zach Wilson exited the picture. He has 7 touches in each of the last two games, and has 3 touchdowns in the last 3 weeks. Moore is still only owned in 50% of Fleaflicker leagues, so he’s definitely worth a speculative add for the rest of the season. After this weeks’ game against Buffalo, he has two great matchups against Miami and Houston.

Pat Freiermuth (TE-PIT) - Wk 6 vs SEA 9.3, Wk 8 @ CLE 12.4, Wk 9 vs CHI 18.8: Muuuuuuth! He’s had 20 targets in his last 3 games - he only had 13 targets in the 5 games before that. He was the TE1 last week, TE1 over the last 3 weeks, only owned in 55% of Fleaflicker leagues. His catch % on the year is an amazing 81.8% - he was north of 90% before his targets increased, so it’s really quite impressive he’s been able to keep it up this high.

Every week, Dave posts his player rankings on our website. He’s also a FantasyPros expert, so you can find him there compared to other experts across fantasy football. Drinkfive.com is the only place you can find Dave’s rankings all by themselves, so make sure to keep an eye on it as they change throughout the week, leading into Sunday. We’re going to look at where we deviate from the expert consensus ranking to clue us in to where Dave disagrees with the masses.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE-RB), ECR 21, Ranked 17 (+4) - Stevenson had a huge fantasy day, finishing as the RB2 on the week. With a quick turnaround, even though Damien Harris looks like he’ll return, you can expect Stevenson to get the majority of the work on Thursday night. Of course, as with all Belichick led backfields, this one is subject to game script, so there’s some volatility keeping him from being a lock as an RB1

Saquon Barkley (NYG-RB), ECR 16, Ranked 20 (-4) - Barkley is scheduled to return to the Giants on Sunday, but it’s going to be a tough one for him. The Giants go to Tampa on Monday night. The Bucs are on a 2 game losing streak and are still one of the best teams against the run, giving up the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs. So, even though Barkley is back, you need to temper expectations and know that he’s a low RB2 or flex play at best.

Darrel Williams (RB-KC), ECR 23, Ranked 18 (+5) - Williams had a fantastic game on Sunday night in Las Vegas, along with most of the rest of the Chiefs offense. Catching 9 passes on 9 targets is going to keep him in the mix for sure, even when Clyde Edwards-Helaire does finally return. CEH has been designated to return, but apparently there’s still a chance he’s held out through the team’s Week 12 bye, so you can feel confident in firing up Williams at least one more week as a solid RB2 with a big upside.

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN-WR), ECR 11, Rank 5 (+6) - You were already starting Chase, but I just had to point out that the WR4 on the year being ranked 11th is just too damn low. Dave has had his eyes open this year, but what’s wrong with everyone else?

DeVonta Smith (PHI-WR), ECR 23, Rank 18 (+5) - Smith had his best game of his rookie season last week, and now has two 20+ point performances in a row. He has 3 TDs in those two games, has 6 targets in each game, and has started to really bring up his catch %, now over 61% on the season. Smith gets New Orleans this week, giving up the 6th most points to opposing WRs.

Cole Beasley (BUF-WR), ECR 32, Rank 47 (-15) - Beasley has been trending way down the last 3 weeks. One of those games, the Bills scored only 6 points, but Beasley had 11 targets and could only turn that into 33 yards. Last week, he was only targeted twice and had 15 yards receiving. With Diggs also getting back on track, Beasley is going to fall way down the options list for the Bills.

Darnell Mooney (CHI-WR), ECR 41, Rank 33 (+8) - The Bears go on bye, and the rest of the league (appropriately) forgets them. In Week 9, Mooney had his best fantasy game as a pro, scoring twice. Justin Fields also had his best game as a pro. The Ravens pass defense the last two weeks has not been what it was to start the season, leaving Mooney as a WR3/Flex option for Week 11.

Kendrick Bourne (NE-WR), ECR 45, Rank 38 (+7) - Bourne led the Patriots in receiving yards and found the end zone for the 4th time this year. He now has at least 68 yards AND a TD in 4 of his last 8 games. This week’s matchup against Atlanta is a nice one, as the Falcons are giving up the 8th most points to opposing WRs. Bourne is only owned in 38% of Fleaflicker leagues.