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Over the years, the "third-year breakout" WR has turned into the "second-year breakout". Last season featured a great bunch of rookies that broke out right away. These are 5 guys we know well from their productive rookie seasons - all with WR1 upside, over 150 fpts, and 2+ pts/touch over the last year, along with a couple of guys on the bubble.

Justin Jefferson (ADP WR7)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 125 targets Jefferson had 88 receptions for 1400 yards and 7 TDs. 1 fumble. 230.2 fpts, 2.58 pts/touch. 

Jefferson’s 2020 season was certainly the ceiling of what you can expect from any rookie performance. With his ADP where it is this year, he’s being drafted as though he will repeat last year’s performance. While it’s hard to see Jefferson improving on his points per touch number or his yardage number, there is a little bit of room to increase his targets and TDs. If you are not put off by the vaccine disconnect between the locker room and the head coach in Minnesota, then by all means, Jefferson deserves to be drafted as a top 10 WR.

CeeDee Lamb (ADP WR12)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 111 targets Lamb racked up 74 receptions for 935 yards and 5 TDs. 10 rushes for 82 yards, and 1 TD. 2 fumbles. 180.7 fpts, 2.15 pts/touch.

In 2020, Lamb did not record a 100-yard game once Dak Prescott went down for the season. He did, however, score 3 of his 5 touchdowns, so his knack for finding the end zone really has me encouraged. This season he will be the #1 WR on the Cowboys from week 1, so an increase in his targets should be a given, and his yardage should really get a healthy boost with Dak throwing the ball all season long. Lamb finished as the WR20 last year, so his bump in ADP this season seems to be just right. The only thing that would keep me from drafting him is that he will probably wind up going even earlier due to the Hard Knocks effect giving him an artificial boost.

Brandon Aiyuk (ADP WR23)

2020 Stats: 12 games, on 96 targets Aiyuk totaled 60 receptions for 748 yards and 5 TDs. 6 rushes for 77 yards, and 2 TDs. 154.5 fpts, 2.34 pts/touch.

Aiyuk is a little more volatile week to week compared to the previous two players, and I attribute this to the dominant running game in SF. His points per touch is really stunning but was boosted by his rushing stats. Last season he had 3 receptions or fewer in 5 of his 12 games - only one of those games produced a double-digit performance. This season, with Kittle back in the mix, as well as a top-tier rookie RB in Trey Sermon, I’m not certain that Aiyuk can overcome the volatility he saw last year. I expect some of his games to feature very little usage, however, if he is in line for 80 receptions (instead of last year’s 60) under a full load of games, that should bring him easily into the realm of a top 20 WR (last year’s WR20 scored 180 points, Lamb).

Tee Higgins (ADP WR24)

2020 Stats: 16 games, with 108 targets Higgins had 67 receptions for 908 yards and 6 TDs. 1 fumble. 161.1 fpts, 2.24 pts/touch.

Higgins has another rookie joining his WR group this year, but Ja’Marr Chase has struggled mightily in the preseason and will need time to adjust to the NFL, leaving Higgins and Boyd to carry the load in Cincy. Higgins did not see much of a drop in production once Burrow went down last season, so I would expect to see a similar stat line this season compared to last year, with a modest improvement for being a second-year player and much more familiar with the offense they’re running. Last year, Higgins finished as the WR30, so his ADP of WR24 is about as optimistic as I am willing to go for him this year. If you can get him in that spot or a few lower, then go for but, but I do not recommend reaching above WR24 for Higgins.

Chase Claypool (ADP WR25)

2020 Stats: G16, from 109 targets Claypool put up 62 receptions for 873 yards and 9 TDs. Also had 2 rushing TDs and 3 fumbles. 183.9 fpts, 2.55 pts/touch.

Claypool’s 11 total TDs last year led all rookies in this group, thus boosting his visibility in fantasy and certainly helping out his points per touch. Expecting Claypool to reproduce his touchdown total is wishful thinking at best, so let’s assume there’s a small regression there. Claypool finished as the WR19 in points for last year, so dropping him down to WR25 on the ADP tracks with this regression. Ideally, for him, the Steelers offense will see an improvement - they were 12th in points and 24th in yards, so again, their scoring outpaced their actual offense and some kind of regression is to be expected. Best case scenario, the yardage increases, and the points do not dip by much at all. 

Close but no cigar… guys that aren’t quite there yet.

Jerry Jeudy (ADP WR30)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 113 targets Jeudy brought in 52 receptions for 856 yards and 3 TDs. 2 fumbles. 131.6fpts, 2.53 pts/touch.

Jeudy actually saw a consistent amount of targets last season, with only 1 game being below 4 targets. His 16+ yards per reception are what help keep his points per touch in the elite group, but a catch rate of only 46% severely limited his ceiling in 2020. I expect this to go up with Teddy Bridgewater (66.5% completion rate) as his starting QB. You may look at Bridgewater over Lock as a bad thing for a downfield receiver like Jeudy, but don’t be fooled. In 2020, Bridgewater averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, while Lock was a full yard worse, 6.6 Y/A for his 2020 season. Jeudy will be just fine with Bridgewater (ignore what I said about this on earlier podcasts). Jeudy finished last year as the WR44, so him being drafted all the way up at WR30 shows optimism on the public’s behalf that Jeudy will get the ball in his hands more reliably than last year, and will probably score more touchdowns to boot. He’s a good value at WR30, though I wouldn’t reach past maybe WR28 for him.

Laviska Shenault (ADP WR42)

2020 Stats: G14, on 79 targets Shenault notched 58 receptions for 600 yards and 5 TDs. Also 18 rushes for 91 yards. 128.1 fpts, 1.69 pts/touch.

Shenault definitely trails this group of rookies statistically, coming in way behind the rest in terms of points per touch. He’s also going to be in a new offense with new HC Urban Meyer, and he has Marvin Jones, the Jags FA acquisition, as someone to soak up targets as well. Shenault has yet to fully break out - his career-high is just 86 yards, so it’s certainly possible that we see him take the next step this season. Since he’s got a new QB, a new coach, and a new WR presumably ahead of him in the pecking order, I don’t expect that step forward to be very large. Shenault finished as the WR47 last year, so going at 42 this year looks like good value to me. I wouldn’t mind taking him as high as WR40, though honestly, it’s still anyone’s guess as to what the Jaguars offense will look like after the super vanilla looks they showed us in the preseason.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now less than one week away from the regular season kickoff, and I’m sure you’re all like me and getting antsy for some real NFL action that counts. Today, I’m continuing my preseason look at the rookie class and turning my focus to the wide receivers. If you missed my previous fact sheets, you can find them here (QB), here (RB) and here (TE), but today we’re looking at the rookie wide receiver class. The premise is simple. I’m going to give you some cold hard facts that apply to the rookie receiver class based on things like draft capital, college production, and coaching tendencies, and then give you my interpretation of what those things mean for the 2021 season and beyond. Since most dynasty rookie drafts are over, the info is going to slant towards redraft leagues, but there will be some dynasty tidbits thrown in as well. Let’s dive in…

FACT:

In half-PPR scoring, there were 3 rookie wide receivers who finished in the top-20 scorers at the position in 2020. In the five years prior to that, there were a total of 3 top-20 WR performances by rookies.

What it means:

We were spoiled last season when it came to rookie receivers. Justin Jefferson set the rookie receiving yardage record, Chase Claypool and CeeDee Lamb posted top-20 seasons, Tee Higgins posted a top-30 season, and Brandon Aiyuk clocked in as the WR33. No other season in the past 6 years had more than one rookie finish in the top-20 or more than 2 finish in the top-30. The 2021 class comes with a lot of expectations, with three top-10 draft picks among 10 receivers drafted in the first two rounds…but the answer to the question of who this year’s Justin Jefferson will be is probably no one. That doesn’t mean you should fade the entire class of receivers, but I’d avoid selecting any of this year’s rookie wide receivers among the top-24 taken in your drafts.

FACT:

Since 2000, there have been 27 wide receivers selected in the top-10 overall NFL picks. Not one of them had a catch rate higher than 58.0% as a rookie.

The lowest league-average completion percentage in any season in that span was 58.2% in 2000.

What it means:

Team’s drafting in the top-10 picks of the NFL draft typically have a bad QB, or at least a young developing QB at the helm, and it can take time for a bad or inexperienced quarterback to get on the same page with an inexperienced receiver. The receivers picked in this range typically fit the same ‘alpha’ WR archetype. Nearly all of them are big, physical wide receivers who are threats down the field rather than possession receivers who thrive on short-yardage throws that are completed at a higher rate. Only 3 of the 27 receivers were shorter than 6’1”. Interestingly enough, two of this year’s three top-10 WR picks - Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith – are shorter than that.

A lower catch rate isn’t a death knell for a receiver, but it’s not great in PPR formats, as they’ll need to put up more yards per catch and/or more touchdowns to make up for the lack of receptions. There are reasons to be excited about each member of the trio, but if you see projections putting any of them above 1,000 receiving yards or finishing as a top-12 WR, take them with a very big grain of salt. I would wait until outside the top-30 WRs to draft any of the three.

FACT:

Elijah Moore’s 10.75 receptions per game in 2020 are the most by any power conference-wide receiver in a season since 1990 (minimum 8 games played).

What it means:

If you’re looking for the rookie receiver who is best positioned to be a valuable fantasy player in year one, look no further than Elijah Moore, especially in PPR leagues. Moore is being drafted 4-5 full rounds after Jaylen Waddle (who is being drafted 3-4 rounds after Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith), but he has as clear a path to 100 targets as any other rookie. With Jamison Crowder on the Covid reserve list, Moore should be in line for a big role in week 1 opposite Corey Davis, and I don’t expect him to look back. Jaylen Waddle will have Devante Parker and Will Fuller in front of him. DeVonta Smith is in an offense that should lean heavily on the run game and will target their two tight ends a bunch. Ja’Marr Chase has struggled to stand out in camp and has two proven receivers in front of him in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Rashod Bateman will open the season on injured reserve with a groin injury. Even if he returns by week 4, it’ll take time to build up to a full workload. Moore could push Corey Davis for the Jets’ team lead in targets this season if he performs well early in the season. He has a ton of upside and can be had with one of your last picks in the draft. I’d much rather draft Moore late than take one of Smith/Waddle/Chase at their current ADPs.

FACT:

Since 2000, 5 wide receivers have tallied 100 or more receptions as a freshman in college. One of them is Rondale Moore. Three of the other 4 have finished an NFL season as a top-12 PPR wide receiver. Two of them have finished a season as the overall WR1.

What it means:

The players to accomplish the feat were Rondale, Michael Crabtree, Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, and Richie James. Obviously, James hasn’t done much at the NFL level, but the other 3 are pretty lofty company. Rondale isn’t a guy I would be targeting in redraft formats outside of a late dart throw, but he’s got a ton of upside in dynasty leagues. He’s going to have to fight for playing time in year one with veterans DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, and Christian Kirk around, but that could give you an opportunity to get him for a bargain later this season if the manager who drafted him gets impatient or frustrated. He’s a perfect fit for the Cardinals’ spread attack and has a legitimate 100-catch upside at the NFL level once he ascends the depth chart. Monitor his performance early in the season, and make an offer for him if he isn’t playing a bunch in the first month or two of the season.

FACT:

Since 1980, there have been 53 NFL wide receivers to catch a pass that weighed less than 170 pounds (per pro-football-reference.com). Only 4 of them have caught for 800 or more yards in a season.

Tutu Atwell weighed in at 149 pounds at his last NFL medical check before the NFL Draft.

What it means:

Atwell’s diminutive size may limit him to being a gadget player or return man in the NFL. The 149-pound number is a little bit for shock value here – Atwell reportedly weighed in around 160 pounds not long after the draft, but even at 160 his historical outlook isn’t great. The last time a player under 170 pounds caught for 800+ yards in a season was James Jett in 1997. As the league evolves into a more pass-heavy game with more spread offenses, smaller players like Atwell should have a better chance to succeed, but Atwell is on the extreme end of that scale. There are other small-ish receivers in this class that were drafted early this year – 7 of the 10 WRs drafted in the first two rounds don’t have the prototypical ‘alpha WR’ size – but the lightest any of the other 6 were clocked was DeVonta Smith at 166 pounds at the same medical combine where Atwell was at 149.

Tutu does have several things working in his favor. Sean McVay’s offenses have consistently been among the best in the league, Matt Stafford is an upgrade at QB with a strong deep ball, and Atwell has wheels and 2^nd-round draft capital. He has a fighting chance, but I’d like to see him show something at the NFL level before buying in. I’d be avoiding him entirely in redraft leagues and treating him as a late flyer in dynasty.

FACT:

Since 2000, there have been 37 wide receivers drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft that reached 24 years old prior to or during their rookie season. Only 10 of them reached 500 or more receiving yards, and 11 failed to catch for even 100 yards as a rookie.

What it Means:

D’Wayne Eskridge probably isn’t worth even a late dart throw in redraft leagues. I love Eskridge as a player, and as someone that went to Western Michigan, Eskridge is a guy that I want to root for, but he’s facing long odds to be a useful piece of fantasy teams early in his career. We’ve seen some recent successes from older rookie receivers – Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, and Cooper Kupp all cleared 800 receiving yards in year one – but none of that trio joined a team that had a pair of 125+ target receivers returning. The Seahawks already ranked just 17^th in passing attempts last season, and head coach Pete Carroll has expressed a desire to run the ball more in 2021. There just isn’t enough room for Eskridge to carve out a meaningful role in this offense in year one unless there’s an injury to DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett ahead of him.

FACT:

The New York Giants returning players accounted for 72.2% of the team’s passing targets in 2020, including their 3 most-targeted players, who each had at least an 18% target share.

The Giants get Saquon Barkley back from injury this season and added Kenny Golladay and Kyle Rudolph in free agency.

What it means:

Kadarius Toney wasn’t drafted to be a major part of the offense in his rookie year. Using a first-round pick on a player who isn’t going to play a major role in year one certainly doesn’t feel like a wise use of that pick, but it appears to be exactly what the Giants did here. They’ll find ways to get him on the field and get the ball into his hands – he’s a dynamic playmaker after the catch – but he’s not going to give you consistent production for fantasy leagues without some injuries in front of him. He would likely need to get himself ahead of both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton on the depth chart to play a meaningful rookie role, and I don’t think that’s likely. It would be a positive rookie year if he were even able to match Henry Ruggs' output from last season (26 receptions, 452 yards, 2 TD). There’s no need to consider him in anything but the deepest of redraft leagues, and he should be viewed as more of a stash for the future in dynasty.

FACT:

Since 2000, 238 wide receivers that were drafted after the 3^rd round of the NFL draft caught a pass as a rookie. Only 4 of them (1.7%) reached 700 or more receiving yards in their rookie season.

In that same span, there were 279 undrafted wide receivers who caught at least one pass in their rookie season. Again, only 4 of them (1.4%) reached 700 or more receiving yards in their rookie season.

What it means:

In redraft leagues, you should avoid drafting rookie receivers who were not drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft. Receivers in this group are such a longshot to produce at a high level that you should cross them off your draft list ahead of time. There have been successes to come from this group, but you should wait until you see something from them and pick them up on the waiver wire rather than draft them. There has been a lot of buzz this offseason for Amon-Ra St. Brown, both because he has a cool name and because the Lions have a dearth of WR talent, and there has been a little bit of noise more recently for Tylan Wallace as the Ravens have been depleted by injuries at the receiver position. Let other teams in your league take the chance on those guys. I’m not a scout, so I’d rather not assume I’m capable of identifying which player from this range is going to be the outlier who does produce as a rookie.

That’s all I’ve got for the receivers. Hopefully, it helps you if you have a draft coming up this weekend. Sorry if it seems like I’m a downer on your favorite rookie wide receivers this season. I do think there is going to be quality that comes from this wide receiver class, but I also think the 2020 class has thrown our expectations for them in year one out of whack.

Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions about the rookie WR crop or want to yell at me about anything written above, and make sure to come back to check out the weekly Rookie Report articles in-season as well. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally made it back to the NFL regular season, and I’m excited to be back to look at which rookies can lead your teams to the win column each week. If you’re new to the Rookie Report, welcome! Every week I’ll look at the matchups of all the fantasy-relevant rookies and give you my take on what you should do with them for your lineups. I’ll group the players into 4 categories – Rookies to Start, Borderline Rookies, Rookies to Sit, and Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options. While those category names are pretty straightforward, don’t take them too literally. You should always read the explanation of why I have a player listed in the category he is and apply it to your league rules and roster. If I list Javonte Williams as a rookie to start, and you drafted him as your 4^th running back, you might still have better options and should leave him sidelined. I also may call a QB borderline specifically in 2-QB formats…that doesn’t mean you should consider him over a top-12 option. I just want to supply some useful info so you can make the best decisions for your own starting lineup each week. Before we get into the Week 1 report, I wanted to share my redraft rookie top-12 for the 2021 season:

1. RB Najee Harris, PIT
2. RB Javonte Williams, DEN
3. TE Kyle Pitts, ATL
4. WR DeVonta Smith, PHI
5. WR Elijah Moore, NYJ
6. WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN
7. RB Trey Sermon, SF
8. WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA
9. WR Terrace Marshall Jr, CAR
10. QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX
11. QB Zach Wilson, NYJ
12. QB Justin Fields, CHI

Week 1 is always a difficult one to predict for the rookies. Coaches often don’t want to tip their hand as to how they’d like to use their rookies in the preseason, and we wind up trying to read the tea leaves and deciphering the true meaning behind coachspeak to sort things out. Those tea leaves got even harder to read this year with just 3 preseason games instead of 4. That will throw off the normal preseason routines and usage patterns that we’re used to. Even if you think you’ve got a good handle on how a player will be used, you’ll still have to figure out how difficult of a matchup they’re facing. The most objective measure we have for this is how the team fared against the position last year. The only problem with that is these defenses aren’t the same as they were last year. Case in point, the Atlanta Falcons allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers last season than any other defense…but in 2019 they allowed just the 15^th most. Things can change a lot in a year. With all of that in mind, bear with me as I try to sift through what to do with your rookies in week 1.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 1…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 1: @Buf.): If you have Najee on your team, you likely had to select him by the early second round, and you can’t sit him week 1. The Steelers’ offensive line woes have been a hot topic throughout the offseason, but the Bills were just a middling run defense last year and the volume will be there for Najee in week 1. Buffalo ranked 17^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat in 2020 and allowed the 12^th-most points per game to the position. This probably isn’t going to be a ceiling week for Najee, so he probably isn’t the best DFS target, but he should be a solid RB2 in the opener.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. Phi.): You didn’t draft Kyle Pitts to sit him. If you have him on your team, he should probably be in the starting lineup this week. The Eagles allowed the 11^th-most TE points per game last season, and while they have upgraded the secondary with the addition of Steven Nelson from the Steelers, this is far from an elite unit. The Falcons are likely to use Pitts all over the formation. He’ll face stiff competition when he lines up outside against Darius Slay and Nelson, but he should have a much bigger advantage when he’s lined up in-line against a safety, or in the slot against 5’9” Avonte Maddox. If Pitts is who we think he is, this is a spot where he should smash.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Car.): The Jets’ rookie signal-caller gets a soft landing in his NFL debut facing off with the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers played a conservative defense last season that attempts to limit big plays, but they were picked apart underneath. The Jets' new OC Mike LaFleur brings an efficient system with him from San Francisco that could have a field day against that sort of defense. Carolina allowed the 8^th-highest passer rating to opposing QBs and ranked 23^rd in pass defense DVOA despite allowing just 6 pass plays of 40+ yards all season. Phil Snow returns as defensive coordinator, so the scheme should be similar in 2021. Carolina’s defense crumbled down the stretch last season, allowing 3+ passing TDs in 5 of their final 8 games, and they’ll need a big impact from first-round rookie Jaycee Horn if they want to shore that up. The Panthers are favored by 4.5 points in this game, so the game script should keep Wilson throwing. He has a very real chance to make a big splash in week 1. He should be considered a solid QB2 option in the opening week.

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 1: @Hou.): I mentioned that Zach Wilson gets a soft landing in his debut, but the number 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence gets an even softer one. The Texans ranked 29^th in the league in pass defense DVOA in 2020 and traded away their top cornerback Bradley Roby this week. Roby was going to be out due to suspension anyway this weekend, but the Texans were absolutely shredded through the air without him last season, giving up an average of 278 passing yards per game and multiple total TDs to the opposing QB in all 6 games. They even allowed Jake Luton to throw for 304 yards and Brandon Allen to throw for 371 with Roby sidelined. The Texans have revamped their roster over the offseason, but it now looks like one of the worst rosters in the NFL, and the defense should be a rag-tag bunch. My biggest concern for Lawrence is that we may see a lot of handoffs to James Robinson and Carlos Hyde. In addition to being awful against the pass last year, the Texans also allowed the most rushing yards, the highest yards per carry average, and the 2nd-most rushing TDs. Those volume concerns are why I view Lawrence as a lower-end QB2 in his NFL debut.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Smith is in line to be the Eagles WR1 in the season opener, and on paper, the matchup looks good. The Falcons allowed more fantasy points per game to receivers than any other team last season. They did revamp much of the back end of their defense over the offseason but none of the new additions seem likely to be big difference makers. Fabian Moreau was solid for Washington last season, allowing a passer rating below 80 on passes into his coverage, but that wouldn’t scare me off Smith this week. My bigger concerns are that the two tight ends may be the top two targets in what shapes up as a lower volume passing attack. Smith has a sky-high ceiling in this matchup, but probably shouldn’t be started ahead of any top-24 WRs.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): Chase’s training camp struggles have been discussed ad nauseam throughout the last month, and while I think they’re being overblown it’s enough to worry me for week 1. I don’t think Chase actually thinks the NFL ball is harder to catch because it’s a little bigger and doesn’t have stripes. I do think there is a little rust still from him not playing football last year, but that will shake off quickly once the games start counting. Chase is still slated to start in an offense that had enough passing volume to get 3 different receivers to 100 targets last season even with QB Joe Burrow missing 6 games. He’s going to see volume, and he opens the season against a Vikings team that allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game in 2020. The Vikings did bring in Patrick Peterson to help shore up that pass defense, but it remains to be seen how much the 31-year-old corner has left in the tank. He allowed a passer rating of 98.2 on throws into his coverage last season. I’d fade Chase to a small degree early in the season while he works out those training camp kinks, but he has WR2 upside this week.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 1: @NE): Waddle enters week 1 with some sneaky upside as Will Fuller finishes serving the last game of his PED suspension. Waddle is listed as a starting receiver for the Dolphins, he plays with a QB that he caught passes from in college, and he faces a Patriots’ defense this week that is missing their #1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore. New England was stingy against receivers in 2020, allowing the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, but they were just 18^th in pass defense DVOA. Waddle wasn’t a big volume receiver in college. He never topped 45 receptions in a season, but he’s a big-play threat and the Dolphins have emphasized pushing the ball downfield in camp this season. Waddle isn’t an especially safe play this week, but his ceiling looks something like what Marquise Brown did in his NFL debut 2 years ago (4-147-2). A more realistic hope is probably 4-5 catches with one big play sprinkled in. I’d consider him in the WR4 range this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Jones has earned the starting job in New England to open the season, but I wouldn’t be eager to get him into lineups in week 1. I expect the Patriots to play conservatively and lean on the run game, and the Dolphins return 9 out of 11 starters from a defense that allowed the 2^nd-fewest passing touchdowns in the league last year. I don’t expect Mac to have enough passing volume to put up big yardage, and this defense isn’t one that’s likely to give up a lot of TDs. I’d wait on getting Mac into starting lineups.

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 1: @Det.): This may be a moot point to mention with Jimmy Garoppolo officially named as the week 1 starter on Wednesday, but the 49ers tinkered with a 2-QB approach in the preseason and may utilize that to some degree during the regular season. Don’t be surprised if Lance plays a few series while this game is competitive, and since this game has one of the biggest point spreads of the week at 7.5 there may be some garbage time late. It won’t amount to enough opportunity to make Lance a useful week 1 option, and he may even put a dent into Jimmy G’s upside in this inviting matchup.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Stevenson was one of the league’s breakout performers in the preseason as he piled up 216 yards and 5 touchdowns across 3 games, but he’ll almost certainly open the season playing second fiddle to Damien Harris in this run game. The Dolphins are more vulnerable on the ground than they are through the air, but if you play Stevenson, you’re hoping he steals the goal-line work from Harris and gets into the end zone.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Gainwell enters week 1 of the season without his role clearly defined. The expectation is that he’ll mix in on passing downs as that’s an area he’s specialized in and Miles Sanders has had issues catching the football in practice, but it’s possible we see Boston Scott taking some of that work as well. The Falcons did allow the 9^th-most receptions per game to opposing running backs in 2020, but also the 6^th-fewest RB fantasy points per game. I’d wait a week or two to see how this backfield shakes out before trusting Gainwell in lineups.

RB Larry Rountree, LAC (Wk. 1: @Was.): Don’t be fooled by the news that Austin Ekeler is suddenly questionable for Sunday’s game and think that Rountree has some sneaky upside. If Ekeler sits, the Chargers will likely handle the backfield with a committee approach with Justin Jackson leading the way. Washington allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game a season ago and still boasts one of the best front 7’s in the NFL. Don’t fall for the trap here.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): There’s no reason to consider Evans for your lineups or go scoop him off the waiver wire just yet but keep an eye on how the Bengals use him in week 1. The team’s offensive coordinator Brian Callahan said that Evans has “the most natural hands for a running back that I’ve ever been around.” Callahan has been around Gio Bernard, Joe Mixon, Jalen Richard, Doug Martin, and Theo Riddick, among others. Joe Mixon is expected to have a workhorse role, but there is still a chance that Evans is able to carve out a receiving role, so it’s a situation worth monitoring.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 1: @Ten.): Moore draws a good matchup for his NFL debut, but it remains to be seen how much playing time he’ll get. The Titans allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game last season but reports throughout camp have made it clear that DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green will be the top 2 targets in this offense, and there’s no guarantee Moore is playing ahead of Christian Kirk in Week 1. No team played more 4-wide receiver sets than the Cardinals, and only the Bills even came close, but that still accounted for just 21% of their offensive snaps. If Moore is behind Kirk, he won’t be on the field nearly enough to help you. Monitor his usage in this one, but I wouldn’t put him in the Week 1 lineup.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): If you drafted Marshall in your fantasy leagues, you may have circled his week 1 matchup with the Jets as a great opportunity to get him in the lineup. The Jets were the worst team in the NFL last season and ranked 28^th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t be so quick to trust the rookie. He still enters the season 4^th in the target pecking order behind Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Robby Anderson, and this may be a game where they don’t need to throw it a ton. Despite their defensive woes against the pass, the Jets still only allowed the 14^th-most WR points per game. I’m not sure there will be enough passing volume to go around to make Marshall a useful piece in season-long leagues. He does cost the minimum on DraftKings, however, and may be worth a shot in DFS tournaments.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Generally speaking, the Texans are an offense that should be avoided for fantasy purposes, and that’s especially true when you’re talking about players who aren’t even slated to start. Collins has seemingly been leapfrogged on the depth chart by Chris Conley in recent weeks, and the Texans are expected to lean heavily on the running game when they can since they have a plethora of experienced running backs and start Tyrod Taylor at QB. Game script is going to make that hard to do some weeks, but this week against Jacksonville is a game where the Texans may manage to be competitive. The Jaguars are favored by just 3 points. Collins looks like he’ll be the WR3 in a low-volume passing attack in this one. Steer clear.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk.1: vs. SF): ARSB has been a popular name as a fantasy sleeper this year since the Lions appear to be devoid of much WR talent on the roster, but he’s listed as a 3^rd-stringer on the Lions’ most recent unofficial depth chart. There is an opportunity for a Lions’ WR to step up in the opener – the 49ers were just a middling defense against wide receivers last year and may be missing starting CB Emmanuel Mosley on Sunday, and game script is likely to keep the Lions throwing. I just don’t have any confidence that St. Brown is the guy who steps up in this one. I’d take a wait-and-see approach with the rookie.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 1: @Ind.): Eskridge was a fun player to watch during his time at Western Michigan, but he’s probably got work to do to carve out a role with the Seahawks. In 2020, Seattle wide receivers not named DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett combined for 69 targets all year (nice). That works out to a 4.3 per game split between all the other wide receivers. That’s going to have to be significantly different in the new offense under Shane Waldron for Eskridge to find his way to a meaningful rookie role. Waldron spent the past 3 years as the LA Rams passing game coordinator, and in the past two years, the Rams’ WR3 has averaged just over 75 targets. That would at least be a start for Eskridge, but I’d like to see that play out on the field before I insert the rookie into lineups. The Colts were a middling WR defense last year, not a bad one, so this isn’t the week to take a swing on an unknown.

WR Tutu Atwell, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. Chi.): Atwell was heavily targeted in the preseason, but he managed to turn 29 targets into 18 catches for just 129 yards. His usage made Diontae Johnson look like a downfield threat. I don’t expect Atwell to see a lot of snaps in week one as he’s listed behind both DeSean Jackson and Van Jefferson on the Rams’ depth chart. Even if he does see some time on the field, his preseason usage hints at him only having value in the deepest PPR leagues for now. Keep him parked on the bench this week.

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, MIN (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Smith-Marsette could open the season as the Vikings WR3, but that role on this team isn’t one that’s going to result in useful fantasy production, even with Irv Smith out. Last season the Vikings top two tight ends and their WR3 combined for just 110 targets, with only 30 of them going to WR3 Chad Beebe. Even if all that target share was divvied up evenly between Tyler Conklin and Smith-Marsette, we’re still only talking about less than 3.5 targets per game for each guy. Leave Ihmir on the waiver wire unless he starts to produce.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 1: @Buf.): Freiermuth is likely going to open the season as the TE2 in Pittsburgh behind Eric Ebron, so he should be avoided in fantasy lineups for week 1. If you play DFS and thought Freiermuth had sneaky upside facing a Bills defense that allowed the 6^th-most TE points per game last season, keep in mind that they were missing Matt Milano for 6 games last season, and they were shredded by tight ends in those 6 games. With Milano on the field, only 1 tight end all year reached 10 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring against the Bills.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 1: @NYG): Williams enters week one as part of what appears to be a 1-2 running back punch to start the season for the Broncos. The expectation is that Melvin Gordon will be the 1, and Javonte the 2, but don’t be surprised if that turns out to be reversed. Gordon played in the final preseason game while Javonte was held out despite not being injured. This usually means the team has big plans for a player and wants to make sure they don’t get hurt in a meaningless game. Gordon did miss time earlier in camp with a groin injury, so there’s a chance he was only playing because he hadn’t gotten any live game reps in the first two preseason contests, but Javonte being held out is certainly a good sign for the rookie. The Broncos want to lean on the run game when they can with game-manager Teddy Bridgewater at QB. They ranked 13^th in the league in rushing attempts last season. They face the Giants in week 1. New York allowed the 14^th-most RB points per game last season – not good, not terrible, but they also lost their run-stopping nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency. If Javonte is the leader of this committee, I like his chances to see 15+ touches in week 1 and return RB2 value. He costs the minimum on DraftKings and could be a difference-maker if you have the fortitude to get him in the lineup in season-long leagues this week.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 1: @Det.): Sermon may not have taken the starting job right away like some were predicting, but he still has an opportunity for a nice debut. Raheem Mostert will be the starter, but there may be enough to go around for both players to be productive in this game. The 49ers are one of the heaviest favorites of the week, and the Lions ranked 27^th in run defense DVOA en route to allowing the most RB fantasy points per game in the league. San Francisco hasn’t been shy about their desire to run the ball a lot this season, and the Lions aren’t likely to be the team to prevent them from doing that. Sermon should mix in a fair amount as a change of pace back to Mostert and may see some extra work down the stretch if the 49ers get out in front. A finish in the RB3 range would be a successful debut for the rookie.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Car.): With Jamison Crowder still struggling to get himself back from the Covid reserve list, Elijah Moore is in line to start in the slot in week 1, and a big debut could be in the offing. Corey Davis got a lot of attention after he was targeted 10 times in just 13 routes run during the preseason, but Moore is likely to remind us that there’s another pretty good receiver on the Jets on Sunday. The rookie averaged nearly 11 catches per game at Ole Miss last year and will have the most favorable CB matchup in the opener. Davis should have success against heralded rookie Jaycee Horn, but there should be plenty of room for Moore to thrive against a defense that allows a lot of short and intermediate completions. I like Moore to top 75 receiving yards in his debut, and a touchdown would be a nice cherry on top.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): Look, I don’t like writing Toney’s name here any more than you like reading it here. The Giants reached for him in the first round of the NFL Draft, and he missed time early in camp and didn’t really stand out until recently. Despite that, the Giants pass-catcher situation for week one is still very much in flux. Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram, and Kyle Rudolph all missed time with injury recently, and the Giants don’t want to let Saquon fully loose in the opener either. Engram has been ruled out for week one, and while Golladay and Rudolph are both set to play it remains to be seen how the targets will shake out. This isn’t an easy matchup. The Broncos ranked 11^th in pass defense DVOA last season, and then went out this offseason and added standout cornerbacks Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller, and rookie Patrick Surtain II. Toney is still a threat to take any touch to the house. If he gets a handful of catches and breaks one for a long TD, he’s going to be a big value at his minimum price tag on DraftKings. Pay attention to any news about how the Giants intend to use their pass catchers in Week 1 if you’re considering using Toney.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. LAC): Brown gets a big opportunity in week 1 after Curtis Samuel pulled up lame with a hamstring issue at practice Wednesday. Brown should slide into a starting spot opposite Terry McLaurin against the Chargers in the opener. The matchup isn’t an ideal one for him. Brown excelled down the field in his college career at North Carolina, averaging 20+ yards per catch in each of his last two college seasons. While that pairs well with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, it doesn’t pair well with the matchup against Los Angeles. Only 5 teams allowed fewer 20+ yard receptions than the Chargers last season. The Chargers did lose starting corner Casey Hayward in free agency, but they also get Derwin James back for 2021 after the standout safety missed all of last season. There are also plenty of mouths to feed in this offense with McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic and Adam Humphries all around as well. It’s still difficult to completely fade Dyami at his minimum price tag on DraftKings given his big-play potential and his gunslinger QB. If you have the roster space he’s worth a stash in season-long leagues on the chance that he breaks out in week 1. Curtis Samuel was moved to the injured reserve on Friday.

That’s all I’ve got for Week 1. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure to do a final check before kickoff to be sure you don’t start any inactive players. I’ll be back each week to give you a rookie rundown throughout the season, but in the meantime feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions about the rookies or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

8-0

It’s good to be a team out west. Following Monday night’s victory by the Raiders, both the NFC and AFC West divisions are a perfect 8-0. They stand in stark contrast to the NFC North, which started 0-4. The Raiders certainly had the most exciting victory of the bunch, but honorable mentions go to Kansas City, where Patrick Mahomes kept his perfect September streak alive while moving to 35 TDs and 0 INTs during September. Kudos also go to the Chargers, who sit in last place after a very tough victory over the Washington Football Team. The Seahawks share their last-place standing, after having a ho-hum victory over a non-conference team in Indianapolis. 

3 Rookie WR Touchdowns

The three wide receivers who were taken in the first round of the 2021 draft all had an immediate impact on their respective teams. Devonta Smith started off the scoring for the Eagles, finding the end zone on an 18-yard pass from Jalen Hurts halfway through the first quarter. It would up being all the scoring the Eagles would need against an anemic Falcons team. Not to be outdone, Ja’Marr Chase caught a 50 yard TD from his former (and current) teammate Joe Burrow as time was running down in the first half of their game against Minnesota. Chase caught 5 of 7 targets for 101 yards and a TD, so clearly, the “lines on the ball” thing was a bit overblown. We should all cut rookies some slack when they’re accidentally candid with a reporter. Based on the public’s reaction, we don’t have to worry about him being candid any time in the near future. In the afternoon slate of games, Jaylen Waddle got in on the fun, scoring from 3 yards out early in the second half. All of these rookies’ teams won on Sunday.

0 TDs

Week 1’s top scoring fantasy RB managed to score the most points of the week and didn’t even find the end zone. Of course, it’s a familiar name - Christian McCaffrey put up 23.2 fantasy points, a low total for the top scorer of the week. He had 187 yards from scrimmage, or 49% of his team’s total offense. Add 9 receptions to that, and he had enough points to lead a week where only 4 other players managed to top the 20 point mark. Most notable in that group are Jamaal Williams and De’Andre Swift, who were avoided like the plague in most drafts and seemed to fall pretty far until being picked late. Both Williams and Swift had 8 receptions, over 100 yards from scrimmage, and scored a touchdown in the Lions’ opening day loss to the 49ers.

12-100 Yard Receiving Games

The NFL truly is a passing league in 2021. There were 12 wide receivers who hit the 100-yard mark, versus only 5 running backs who hit 100 rushing yards. Leading the way was one of the top WRs picked in the draft, Tyreek Hill, who put up a massive 197 yards on 11 receptions and 15 targets. He also found the end zone in the Chiefs' comeback victory, and thus assuring the Chiefs multiple mentions in this column, as is tradition. One rookie joined the group over 100 yards, the aforementioned Ja’Marr Chase, squeaking by at 101 yards. An old favorite also found himself in the group - Antonio Brown, who put up 5 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown in his best opening day performance since 2017. Finally, an honorable mention must go to Darren Waller, who cracked the 100-yard mark on his game-tying TD in the 4th quarter of last night’s game and managed to be the only tight end to hit the century mark in week 1 of this season.

5 Passing TDs

...And 148 passing yards. What? The Jameis Winston era in New Orleans (via Jacksonville) has begun with a stat line that the NFL has never seen. Never before has someone thrown for 5 TDs on less than 150 passing yards. Along with zero INTs, I suppose that Lasik surgery worked wonders. Winston had 14 completions on 20 attempts, totaling 29.62 fantasy points, good for the QB4 on the week. He is currently owned in only 56% of Fleaflicker leagues. The QB3 on the week, Jared Goff, is only owned in 40% of leagues! The wire is going to be hot this week. But I digress. The story of this game was the Packers scoring only 3 points. I don’t think that there’s much to worry about on the offensive side for Green Bay, but I do think their defense can be exploited in fantasy matchups all season long.