Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re back after a 1-week hiatus, and it looks like we missed a pretty explosive week for some rookie receivers, not to mention the scintillating first start of Lamar Jackson’s career. Jackson won’t hold up for long if he keeps carrying the ball 27 times per game, but it worked at least in this one. Not to be outdone, DJ Moore and Tre’Quan Smith each put on a show in week 11. Christian Kirk finished the week as a top-20 option, Keke Coutee was in the top-30 for the week, and Courtland Sutton and Anthony Miller ended up in the top-40. Marcell Ateman and Trey Quinn were also each productive in their first real action of the season. Saquon kept being Saquon, Lindsay kept being Lindsay, but the rest of the rookie RB crop was quiet in week 11 outside of a breakout performance by unknown Gus Edwards. Will any of these trends continue this week? Let’s dive in and take a look…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 12: @Phi.): You obviously know what to do with Saquon, but I wanted to give a little background on the matchup this week. The Eagles’ injury-riddled defense has allowed 31 RB points per game in their last 5 contests (all scoring and rankings are in PPR format). There are only 3 teams in the league that allow more than that per game for the year. The return of Timmy Jernigan this week might help Philly, but the Saquon show doesn’t take weeks off.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Like Philly’s, the Cincinnati defense has been crumbling of late. Over their past 8 games, the Bungles have coughed up more than 135 rushing yards per game and 9 rushing scores to RBs. Chubb should be a strong RB2 play in this one.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Michel should’ve had a chance to get healthier over New England’s bye last weekend, and he gets a great situation this week. The Pats are 9.5-point favorites on the road at the Meadowlands this week. The game script should be run-heavy and the Jets have a middling run defense that ranks 17th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Only 6 teams have allowed more rushing scores to backs than the Jets.
RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): Edwards should be a great option this week, especially in non-PPR formats. I did list Phillip Lindsay in the borderline category this week, but I’d be hard-pressed to start Edwards over him in a PPR league. With that said, I love Edwards this week. I can’t imagine the Ravens would go back to Alex Collins this week after the performance Edwards put together against the Bengals, and the Raiders have been shredded on the ground this year. Baltimore is a double-digit favorite, and Oakland has given up more than 100 running back rush yards in 8 of their last 10 games, and more than 150 in 4 of them. Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability from the QB position only serves to open up more lanes for Edwards. If you managed to get Gus on the wire this week, find a way to get him into your lineup.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Mayfield is nearly a must-start in 2-QB leagues this week, but he’s a borderline option in leagues where you start just one. Baker’s been really consistent over the past month-plus, and has seemed to turn a corner since Hue and Haley were fired. He’s thrown for multiple TDs in 4 straight starts, and has only turned the ball over twice in those games. Cincinnati has allowed the 2nd-most QB points per game. Keep rolling with Baker in 2-QB formats until he gives you a reason not to.
QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): Jackson was phenomenal in his first NFL start, and he gets rewarded with one of the easiest matchups imaginable. We already know what Jackson can do with his legs and his running ability, and this week he faces a Raiders team that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA and has allowed multiple passing scores in 9 of the 10 games they’ve played. Jackson is a high-upside QB2 this week with some borderline QB1 appeal in deeper leagues.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): I’d still lean toward starting Lindsay even though I listed him as a borderline option. I just want to emphasize that this is one of the tougher matchups he’ll face. The Steelers have allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, and the Broncos have really failed to feature Lindsay as much as they should. He’s been hyper-efficient, averaging better than 5.5 yards per carry, but he’s received more than 15 carries in a game just twice all year, and has more than 3 receptions just twice as well.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. NO): It’s been a while since Calvin teased us with his string of blowup games in the season’s first few weeks. He’s shown a floor right around 7 points, but we’ve kind of lost the ceiling a bit. This week is as good as any to take a chance on him finding it again. The Saints have allowed more WR points per game than any other team, and the Falcons are likely to be throwing as 2-score underdogs. The risk of another floor game is still there, but Ridley is a reasonable upside WR3 this week.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Moore’s coming-out party last weekend was a blast, but Carolina’s passing volume is never a given. Cam Newton has thrown fewer than 30 times in 4 of Carolina’s 6 wins this year, and the Panthers are favored this week. He could see a bigger target share with Devin Funchess listed as questionable, and we’ve seen him flash the skills to be a big-time player in this league. If the volume is there, he should be a solid WR3 this week.
WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Smith had a huge breakout game last weekend against Philadelphia, but he looks iffy to play on Thursday night after missing Tuesday’s practice and getting in a limited session Wednesday. He revealed last Sunday that Drew Brees pulled him aside to tell him the reason he threw him the ball on his 2nd TD catch was because he trusts him. That could just be a motivational tactic from Brees, or it could be a positive sign for Smith going forward. The Saints have so many mouths to feed in this offense that it leads to some low-floor performances. We’ve seen those with Tre’Quan a couple times in recent weeks. The Falcons do allow the 7th-most WR points per game, so the matchup is ripe for another strong performance if Smith is able to play. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): The Lions corners outside of Darius Slay have struggled mightily in coverage this year. Several secondary receivers have torn this defense apart this season: Danny Amendola (6-84-1), David Moore (4-97-1), DJ Moore (7-157-1), Equanimeous St. Brown (3-89), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (7-68-1), Quincy Enunwa (6-63-1) and notably Miller himself (5-122-1) have all had strong days against this defense. I’d expect the Lions to be a little more aware of Miller this time around, and he’ll likely be catching passes from Chase Daniel rather than Mitch Trubisky, but he’s still a decent flex option in deeper leagues and has a ton of DFS tourney upside.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 12: @LAC): Rosen has made some strides in his rookie year. He’s made some big plays to Christian Kirk and had his first 3-TD game last week, but he’s still throwing for minimal yardage (just 2 games over 210 yards and peak of 252), and the Chargers have been stingy against the pass of late. They’ve allowed just 5 passing scores in their past 6 contests, and have allowed just 1 QB to top 250 yards passing and one to top 16 fantasy points in that span. Rosen isn’t the type to overcome that for a solid day.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. NE): It’s looking more and more like Darnold is going to miss this game. He’s not practicing as of Wednesday, but I’d still steer clear if he does play. It’s possible the bye week got him straightened out (both physically and mentally), but I wouldn’t count on it. Darnold turned the ball over 4 times twice in his last 3 starts. There could be some garbage time upside for Darnold in this one with the Pats heavily favored, but you know better than to chase garbage time points.
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Allen looks set to return just in time to face one of the most fearsome pass defenses in the league, Jalen Ramsey and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars rank 7th in pass defense DVOA, and the Bills’ offense remains a dumpster fire. A rusty Josh Allen could get roughed up a bit in his return.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned with Phillip Lindsay above, the Steelers are a tough matchup for RBs, and Freeman is getting by on touchdowns alone. He hasn’t reached 40 rushing yards in a game or more than 10 fantasy points since week 4.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. NO): Smith has just 10 carries for 21 yards in the last two weeks, and the Saints allow the 4th-fewest RB points per game. Ito continues to see some goal line work, but not enough that you can bank on it. He also isn’t seeing enough action in the passing game to offset his poor rushing performances. This game should be pass-heavy for Atlanta with the Saints favored by 12. It looks like more of a Tevin Coleman night for the Falcons backfield.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 12: @Car.): Penny should continue to work as the number 2 back behind Chris Carson this week. He’s been pretty efficient with his touches over the last 2 games, but the Panthers have allowed the 8th-fewest RB points per game and rank a respectable 12th in run defense DVOA. Penny has managed to top 6 PPR points just 3 times all year, and reached double-digits just once. The upside isn’t there for you to trust Penny unless something happens to Carson.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): Jordan Wilkins pleasantly surprised in week 11 by scoring a TD, but he and Hines still combined for just 9 carries and 3 targets in a game that the Colts won by 4(!) scores. This backfield is Marlon Mack’s show until further notice.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 12: @LAC): This isn’t the best week to roll our Christian Kirk. The Chargers allow the 8th-fewest WR points per game, and just one wide receiver has found the end zone against them in the past 5 games. Kirk’s role in this offense is secure, but his upside is severely limited this week.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Sutton has played pretty well over the past 3 games, averaging 3-71, but the QB play of Case Keenum holds this entire offense back, and the Steelers have been playing much improved pass defense of late. They’ve allowed fewer than 30 WR fantasy points in each of the last 4 contests. Only 2 teams in the league have allowed fewer than 30 per game on the year.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): Gallup is dealing with the suicide death of his brother from last weekend, and also has to get ready on a short week for a Thursday game. I’m surprised he’s going to play. Some people feel like it’s a welcome distraction from the grief to go play a game and not think about it. Brett Favre played one of the greatest games of his career after the death of his father, but I can’t imagine taking the field so soon after the death of an immediate family member and being able to focus on football. I wish Gallup all the best both on and off the field this week.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): The new coaching regime has opened up the game plan and gotten other weapons more involved in Cleveland (most notably Duke Johnson Jr.), and that’s made Callaway’s already low floor even lower. His stats haven’t dropped off much, but his targets have. In the 7 games prior to the coaching change, Callaway averaged 6.3 targets per game. He’s had just 7 total in the 2 games since the change. There may be some upside in DFS tournaments this week, but I would take my chances elsewhere.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): If you’re looking for spots to use Goedert in any format, you’re searching for the opportunities where he has the best chances of finding the end zone. In each game this year he’s either scored a TD and finished with double-digit fantasy points or failed to score 4 points. This week isn’t a prime opportunity for a touchdown. The Giants have allowed just one TE to hit paydirt all year.
TEs Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): These two might be a decent DFS dart throw if they were one guy, but individually there just isn’t enough upside to roll the dice, especially in tougher matchups. Only one team has scored double-digit points against Tennessee from the tight end position, and that was Zach Ertz and the Eagles.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): It’s pretty hard to trust much of the Philly offense after their putrid performance in week 11, but Adams was a bright spot. He continued to produce with limited touches, and now has averaged 7.6 carries and 53.6 yards per game in the last 3 (7 ypc). This week’s opponent, the Giants, have allowed the 8th-most RB points per game and rank 20th in run defense DVOA. The game script also should be much better for Adams with the Eagles favored by a touchdown. Adams should be a good option in deeper leagues and a bargain in DFS tournaments.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Bringing in Demaryius Thomas hasn’t affected Coutee the way I feared it would. Coutee posted a 5-77 line in his return from a hamstring injury, and the Titans are a good matchup for him this week. Tennessee ranks 24th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4th-most WR points per game.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 12: @Min.): MVS could be in line for a bounce-back week after he burned a lot of fantasy owners in week 11. The Vikings rank 1st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing number 1 receiver, but just 25th on throws to the number 2 guy. Xavier Rhodes probably has a lot to do with that. It might not be a great week to go for Davante Adams in DFS lineups, but Valdes-Scantling has some appeal in DFS tourneys in deeper fantasy formats.
WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 12: @Dal.): ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ from the 2018 draft made some noise in his first regular season action. It may be point chasing to point him out as a sleeper now, but this is a team that has really missed Chris Thompson, Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson this year. This team loves to throw to their slot receivers, as evidenced by the 15-176 that Maurice Harris tallied in weeks 9 & 10. Those numbers didn’t stop Quinn from supplanting him in week 11. Jamison Crowder could return this week, but Quinn should be a decent floor PPR option going forward in the same vein as Bruce Ellington or Cole Beasley.
WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Ateman is an intriguing stash in deeper leagues and in dynasty formats. Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant have shown time and again this year that they can’t be relied upon to produce or stay healthy, and Ateman’s 4-catch, 50-yard debut is already the 4th-best receiving yardage total any Raider WR has posted in a game this season. He’s a big, raw, physical player who could make a splash down the stretch. The reason why I call Ateman a stash is because this week’s matchup is a tough one. Baltimore allows just the 6th-fewest WR points per game, but the coast gets a little clearer after. The Chiefs, Steelers and Bengals are the opponents that follow, and the Raiders should be throwing a bunch in each game.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Herndon has turned into the clear top TE on this team over the course of the season, and the Pats are quietly struggling to defend the position this year. New England has allowed 6 tight end scores in the past 6 games, and at least 50 receiving yards to them in each contest as well. Herndon hasn’t caught for a ton of yards, but he’s reached 10 points or more 3 times in the past 5 games. He’s a back-end TE1 this week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps with your toughest decisions involving rookies. This week is a critical one with only two weeks left before the fantasy playoffs begin. Make sure to double-check your lineups for any players with games on Thursday, and this especially goes for players with injury designations that play on the holiday. Kerryon Johnson, Chris Thompson and Marvin Jones have already been ruled out and Tre’Quan Smith, Mitch Trubisky and a host of others are questionable as well. Make sure you aren’t starting inactive players before going into your turkey comas on Thursday. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
36 Fantasy Points, Week 10's Leader
This year's fantasy football juggernaut is perhaps as unexpected as anything in the NFL. Mitchell Trubisky (yes, he gets to be called by his full name) tops the Week 10 leader board with 36 points. For the sake of argument, let's assume that future HoF'er Nick Mullens keeps his total under 36 tonight. This is the second time this season that Trubisky is the highest points scorer in a week. He also achieved this back in week 4, when he set the high water mark for any player this season at 43.46 points. Trubisky is the only QB to lead the league in points in a given week twice this season. The QB group that led the league just once is Patrick Mahomes (Wk 7), Drew Brees (Wk 3), Ben Roethlisberger (Wk 2) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (Wk 1). That's pretty impressive company to beat, considering that a Bears quarterback and high fantasy ceiling have never been discussed together, ever. The only other player to lead the league in two different weeks in fantasy is James Conner, who did so in weeks 5 and 8.
249 Passing Yards
With just 249 passing yards on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes came one game short of tying Drew Brees' record for consecutive 300-yard passing games. Mahomes' streak ended at 8 games, but don't worry, he's still the league leader for passing yards and touchdowns and has a 9.0 touchdown percentage. His numbers were down this week against the Cardinals, but it didn't take a lot to beat them. His best stat from this game is that he did not throw an interception, which he had done in each of the last 5 weeks. Mahomes is still on track to throw over 5000 yards and could still get to 50 touchdowns at his current pace. This is perhaps the most impressive resume for MVP in a season with a few really top notch contenders. Mahomes will have a chance to separate himself if the Chiefs can beat the Rams this Monday in Mexico City - apparently the only good MNF matchup that we're allowed to have this season. I wonder how the crowd will react to the monstrosity that is the Booger-mobile. This is the last streak I was tracking in 2018, so let me know if there's something else out there I should be watching for.
501 Yards on Offense
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers accumulated a whopping 501 offensive yards against the Redskins on Sunday - a team that normally gives up just 324 yards per game. Given those stats, one would assume that Fitzmagic is back in full force - Ryan Fitzpatrick did have over 400 passing yards for the fourth time this year. Of course, we don't bring up stats like this because things went according to plan. The Bucs managed just 3 points, helped along the way by 4 turnovers (three of them to end long drives) and two missed field goals. Give credit, I guess, to the Washington Redskins, who are now 6-3 and are probably going to be hosting a playoff game. I don't even need to guess - just look at the remaining schedule for the Redskins, which features just two teams that have winning records. A final, weird note about the Redskins is that this team has not experienced a single lead change this year. They have either led all game or trailed after the first score, showing that this team is literally devoid of excitement.
21 TD in 6 Games
I'm willing to bet you haven't heard much about Andrew Luck's health since he attempted 121 passes in just 5 days back at the end of in weeks 4 and 5. There's a good reason, and it's that everything finally seems OK with @CaptAndrewLuck (that twitter feed is a must-follow). Andrew Luck has at least 3 TDs in the last 6 games and 21 total over that period of time. He's the 5th best QB over the last 4 weeks in fantasy and has the Colts on a 3-game winning streak. The Colts are just 4-5, but they have a good ground game, haven't given up a sack in the last 4 games and Luck is on track to throw for the most TDs in his career - all of them apparently going to tight ends. Also, nice game, Eric Ebron and your three TDs. Not a nice game, all of us who switched over to Jack Doyle once he returned from injury. The Colts could sneak into the AFC wildcard picture, or even the division picture, with two games against the Titans left to go.
50% More Offensive Touchdowns
The Bills can use this tag line when advertising their team for the rest of the season. They went into Sunday with just 8 offensive touchdowns in 9 games, and increased that total by 50% with an additional 4 against the Jets. Heck, they even added a bonus defensive TD to make it a lucky 13 on the season. This was just the second game this season that the Bills did not have a turnover - the other was their Week 3 shellacking of the Vikings. The Bills also put up 451 yards of offense - their previous high water mark was just 333 - a 35% improvement! The new and improved Matt Barkley led Buffalo Bills (please, please do not give us any more Nathan Peterman) will have a bye this week before playing the Jags in week 12 and oh who cares, it's the Bills and they still stink. This is more of an indictment on the Jets, who have multiple turnovers in 8 of 10 games this year and somehow managed to lose the two games where they did not turn the ball over.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
14 Fantasy Points
Through Sunday, week 11's top TE scored just 14 points, and it's courtesy of old man Antonio Gates - owned in a whopping 3% of leagues. This season's volatility at the tight end position continues week after week. In the top 10 alone, we had Robert Tonyan (0% owned) at TE3, Ed Dickson (4% Owned) at TE7 and Matt Lengel (0% Owned) at TE10. Even top guys aren't guaranteed a respectable floor, as we saw Zach Ertz turn in a 1.5 point performance as the 30th best TE this week. Ertz wasn't alone - Trey Burton, Kyle Rudolph and Jimmy Graham all turned in scores either tied with Ertz or lower than him. I wish I knew how to see stuff like this coming - but the TE position has been so damn chaotic, it's impossible to predict what random guys will do well one week, and which ones will lay an egg. It's a position with a floor of basically nothing, and no players seem to be exempt from this. Perhaps the notion of eliminating the TE as an exclusive position isn't as crazy as it first sounded.
7 Wins in a Row
The Houston Texans started the season 0-3 and have followed it up with 7 wins in a row, becoming the first team since 1970 to go on a roll like that after such a bad start. During that streak, they've only faced two teams that were over .500 going in to the game - Miami in week 8 and Washington yesterday. Needless to say, the Texans have had it easy, and will continue to have an easy time with 4 of their last 6 games at home. Their toughest game remaining will be the Colts in week 14. The Texans are currently giving up the 6th fewest points and 7th fewest yards to opposing offenses, while keeping their offense in the top half of the league in both categories (despite the offense scoring over 23 points just twice this season). Aside from J.J. Watt on defense, there are no real stand-outs on the Texans. Deshaun Watson, who was very impressive in 6 starts last year, has come back down to earth. He does have a few things going for him, however. First, his completion percentage is up, his yards per attempt is the same as last year, and he's throwing interceptions at a much lower rate than he was last year. His touchdown numbers have merely come back to earth - it's hard to keep throwing a TD in 9.3% of your passes, like he did last year.
27 Carries
A player getting 27 carries is usually the sign of a running back dominating the carries on their team, but this time it's a lot different. The Baltimore Ravens went into the bye week and announced that Joe Flacco was hurt - and they emerged with what seems like a completely different offense. Lamar Jackson (27 carries) and UDFA Gus Edwards (17 carries) combined for 232 yards on 44 rushes in a grand display of helping absolutely no one in fantasy football. Jackson's 27 carries broke the old QB record of 22, held by famously "awesome" QB Tim Tebow. Running the ball this many times by a QB is not a recipe for long term success, but it does go a long way to silence the talk about John Harbaugh being on the hot seat in Baltimore. The QB situation is very muddy for the Ravens now, as it seems like Flacco will start if he's healthy, but there's no real indication what his timetable might be. I suppose it's time to abandon all hope, ye owners of Ravens wide receivers. Also, can someone please explain where the hell did Gus Edwards came from?
1-4 When Gaining 500+ Yards
The 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers deserve strong consideration for this year's dumpster fire of a team. Since their Fitzmagical start, they've just won one game - an OT game against the Browns in Week 7. Throughout the course of the season, the Bucs have racked up the most yards on offense in the league and they are on pace to throw for 5993 yards, which would be a record if just one person threw all those passes. Instead, they've had a QB shuffle all season, with Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combining for 23 picks through 10 games. With all those turnovers, it's no wonder that the Bucs are giving up the most points in the league, averaging nearly 33 points per game. The turnovers are also the reason that they've only won 1 of their 5 games where they gained over 500 yards. The defense is also contributing fuel to the fire, giving up a touchdown on 88.9% of their opponent's red zone trips. This team just has some of the most extreme stats in the league, and clearly can't get their shit together - however it's great fun for those of us who have a Bucs WR on our fantasy team.
604 Points
The Saints are on pace to score over 600 points this season and could approach or even break the 2013 Denver Broncos record of 606. This is all led by Drew Brees having one of his best seasons ever. He currently leads the league in completion percentage at 76.9%, as well as interceptions with just 1. The completion percentage is set to smash his previous record (and NFL record) of 72.0%, which he set just last year. In fact, Brees has 9 of the top 40 NFL passing seasons by completion percentage, including 2018. It's absurd that this man hasn't won an MVP award, but that just goes to show the talent across the rest of the league. As of Monday, before the epic MNF matchup, Patrick Mahomes led the MVP odds at -125, with Brees trailing him closely at +150. That's good money for Brees, if you ask me. I think the voters will give Brees a lifetime achievement award this season, especially if his team can lock up the #1 seed in the NFC, which is a real possibility given their remaining schedule.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
4 of the top 8 QBs - Owned in 34% of Leagues or Less
Week 13 was a rough one for fantasy footballers. The end of the fantasy regular season brought a ton of chaos at the QB position. Only half of the top 8 QBs are likely to be owned in your league. Josh Allen (2nd - 5% owned), Derek Carr (4th - 18% owned), Nick Mullens (6th - 7% owned) and Marcus Mariota (8th - 34% owned) all put up at least 22.5 points in standard leagues. We also saw three regular starters finish outside of the top 25 QBs. Drew Brees and Matt Ryan both had terrible statistical games and were led by Jared Goff who at least won his game on the way to his 9.08 points. With all of this inconsistency at the position, we must give props to Patrick Mahomes, who once again led the way with 33 points and threw for 4 TDs for the 7th time this year (now up to 41 on the season). If the Chiefs can avoid off-field distractions and hold off the red-hot Chargers, then Mahomes is definitely in line to win the league MVP in his first year as a starter.
3 of the top 5 WRs - Owned in 3% of Leagues or Less
Whaaaaaaa? Who are these mystery men that dominated week 13's stat sheets? Well, Dante Pettis led the way with 24.70 points and is owned in just 3% of leagues. Pettis is actually a decent waiver pickup this week, with 20 targets in the last 3 weeks he is definitely trending up. Outside of the Sunday night game, where Keenan Allen and Antonio Brown put on a show, finishing 2nd and 3rd in points this week, we're right back to the guys that are not on any teams. Zay Jones (20.70 pts - 1% owned) and Jaron Brown (18.70 pts - 0% owned) both had 67 receiving yards and 2 TDs, with Jones adding a 2pt conversion. Ultimately, 13 of the top 30 WRs this week are owned in 30% of leagues or less. In a week where points were at a premium, there were sure a lot of touchdowns that made you say "That helps nobody!".
23% More Fantasy Points Than 2nd Place
Saquon Barkley is having a hell of a season. He's nearly to 1000 rushing yards, he's got over 600 receiving yards and has found the end zone a dozen times, but he's in a distant second this year behind Todd Gurley's 282.90 points at the RB position. Gurley is dominating his position in a very Mahomes-esque fashion. He has nearly doubled up the RB10 and has more than doubled up the RB12. Gurley has paid off as the consensus #1 draft pick before the season started, something that usually does not wind up happening. So far, he's racked up 1649 yards from scrimmage along with 19 touchdowns. He's still got 3 weeks to go for fantasy players, so good luck if you've in the playoffs with him. Gurley has topped 20 points in 9 out of 12 games this season. He's got a couple of tough matchups in weeks 14 and 15, but his week 16 matchup is a juicy one in Arizona, so once again he will be delivering some fantasy championships for Christmas.
3+ TDs in 8 Straight Games
Andrew Luck had a great streak of games going, throwing 27 TDs in 8 games, but that was broken on Sunday by the confusing and sometimes-decent Jacksonville Jaguars defense. The Jags blanked the Colts, 6-0 in Cody Kessler's first start for the Jaguars since the official benching of Blake Bortles. Kessler is clearly not the answer at QB, based on the 6 whole points that the Jags were able to muster. But back to the Colts for a moment - their last shutout was in week 7 of last year - also to the Jaguars. Before that, the Colts hadn't been shutout in the regular season since week 13 of the 1993 season - that's right, I had to go all the way back to the Jeff George era. The Jaguars, on the other hand, have a lot of rebuilding to do - with 4 weak opponents on the remaining schedule, they will still struggle to get another win.
135 Rush Yards
Josh Allen has been cut loose and is running free over his last two opponents. Week 13, he put up 135 rushing yards on only 9 attempts, giving him 234 yards on 22 attempts over two games, good for 10.6 yards per attempt. Allen is now third in rushing yards for QBs and has only played 8 games, compared to 12 games for the two guys above him. Extrapolated for a full season, he would have over 580 yards by now, on pace for 778 in 16 games. That's 75% of what Tom Brady has on his entire career, and yes, fine, congrats on getting to 1000 rushing yards, the most meaningless stat of your life. To wrap up on Josh Allen, his 30.74 points in week 13 were second best among all players. He's got 57 points in the last two weeks and has cupcake matchups against the Jets and Lions the next two weeks, so he could wind up as the best streaming option for the first couple of weeks of the playoffs.