Taking a look at the player trends over the past few weeks can reveal some surprising things - it's important, though, to temper expectations in some cases and realize that some great (and some awful) performances can be the product of gameflow as much as the talent and/or rising production of a player. But since each player can only be owned by one team at a time in most standard fantasy leagues, you've got to scoop them up before anyone else and make smart decisions as far as when to play a rising (or falling) star. What do you think about these scenarios? Will the players listed below live up to expectations based on recent weeks?
We discuss our thoughts on the below players on this week's podcast:
Quarterbacks
Trevor Siemian (DEN, QB)
Week 1 vs. CAR – 18/26, 178yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 11.12pts
Week 2 vs. IND – 22/33, 266yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 12.34pts
Week 3 @CIN – 23/35, 312yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 28.98pts
Siemian was an underdog from the beginning of the preseason, and had a rough start in 2016, but he lit it up against the Bengals in Week 3 and has constantly improved since the opening game against the Panthers. He is now the 12th highest scoring QB in standard scoring leagues after 3 weeks, can he score 18 points or more this week against the Bucs?
Kirk Cousins (WAS, QB)
Week 1 vs. PIT – 30/43, 329yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 11.96pts
Week 2 vs. DAL – 28/46, 364yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 19.56pts
Week 3 @NYG – 21/35, 296yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 19.34pts
Similar to Siemian, Cousins has increased his effectiveness and gotten better at protecting the football every week so far in 2016. The Redskins go up against the Browns’ lackluster defense in week 4 – can he put up 17 or more points?
Running Backs
Tevin Coleman (ATL, RB)
Week 1 vs. TB – 8/22yds, 0 TD, 5rec, 95yds, 0 TD, 11.70pts
Week 2 @OAK – 12/46yds, 1 TD, 2rec, 25yds, 0 TD, 13.10pts
Week 3 @NO – 12/42yds, 3 TD, 3rec, 47yds, 0 TD, 26.90pts
Coleman has been more involved in the Falcons’ offense this year and it doesn’t look like that will change anytime soon. He does go up against the Panthers’ defense in week 4, however. Will Coleman be able to continue this burst of productivity and put up 17 or more points?
Theo Riddick (DET, RB)
Week 1 @IND – 7/45yds, 1 TD, 5rec, 63yds, 1 TD, 22.80pts
Week 2 vs. TEN – 11/37yds, 0 TD, 4rec, 28yds, 0 TD, 6.50pts
Week 3 @GB – 10/9yds, 0 TD, 7rec, 39yds, 0 TD, 4.80pts
Riddick was a huge waiver wire add after week 1’s performance, and was hyped up in the fantasy football world after it was revealed that lead back Ameer Abdullah may miss the entire 2016 season. The emergence of Dwayne Washington makes us give pause, however, and his sinking production isn’t helping. Can Riddick step it back up in week against the Bears and score at least 11 points to make himself fantasy relevant once again?
Wide Receivers
Quincy Enunwa (NYJ, WR)
Week 1 vs. CIN – 7/8, 54yds, 1 TD, 11.40pts
Week 2 @BUF – 6/6, 92yds, 0 TD, 9.20pts
Week 3 @KC – 4/11, 37yds, 0 TD, 3.70pts
Enunwa has been a hot topic this year and since Marshall has been a little hobbled by his knee injury in week 2, it was assumed that Enunwa may be able to step up and provide some fantasy production. Granted week 3 was a terrible one for the Jets’ offense in general, but with Marshall getting healthier once more and Fitzpatrick looking to get back on track in week 4 against Seattle is it possible that Enunwa gets lost in the mix? Will he be able to score at least 8 points among all of the other mouths to feed in that offense?
Jamison Crowder (WAS, WR)
Week 1 vs. PIT – 6/10, 58yds, 0 TD, 5.80pts
Week 2 vs. DAL – 6/8, 39yds, 1 TD, 9.90pts
Week 3 @NYG – 4/7, 78yds, 1 TD, 13.80pts
Crowder looks to be supplanting Pierre Garcon as the starting WR opposite DeSean Jackson. He has been displaying great elusiveness and doing everything that the team asks him to. Going up against the Browns in week 4 should certainly not prove any more difficult than the other teams that he has played so far this year. Will he continue this positive trend and put up at least 10 points this week?
Tight End
Jimmy Graham (SEA, TE)
Week 1 vs. MIA – 1/1, 11yds, 0 TD, 1.10pts
Week 2 @LA – 3/4, 42yds, 0 TD, 4.20pts
Week 3 vs. SF - 6/9, 100yds, 1 TD, 14.00pts
Graham had a gruesome injury last year (patellar tendon) that many athletes never return from in full-form. Even when he was healthy he was still having some issues gelling with the Seahawks offense and finding his place within it. Amazingly, it looks like he did make a full recovery and was doing Jimmy Graham-like things in week 3 and playing a full complement of snaps. Can Graham keep it up against the Jets in week 4 with a backup QB and score at least 7 points?
We're a quarter of the way through the season and on the eve of Week 4, we're coming up on a Thursday night matchup that looks like it can be competitive (for a change). This week also features the return of London football. While I'm not a huge fan of making teams break up their routine with the shock of a trip across five time zones, I do like the fourth game slot on Sundays. So this week, don't forget that the Eagles and Packers are on bye (ouch!) and to check your lineup on Thursday night and early Sunday morning. For more advice for this week, check out this week's podcast, airing live every Tuesday night!
Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 9/27/16: Week 4 Trends & Truths
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
300 Yards
Julio Jones became the 6th player ever to hit the 300-yard mark in a single game, putting up the monster stat line of 12 rec, 300 rec yds, and 1 TD. Everyone who panicked after week three's 16-yard performance can direct their fears elsewhere (Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick come to mind). Jones will be fine going forward, namely because his QB is the best so far in 2016. Matt Ryan currently leads the league in passing yards (1473), passing TD's (11), has only 2 INT's and even has 2-2 pt conversions. His 109.62 fantasy points are 20% higher than the second highest scoring QB, Drew Brees.
0 Points
The Patriots were shut out for the first time at home since 1993, which predates the Belichick era. The last time the team was shut out was in Miami in 2006. Of course, most people would agree that the lack of points comes from a distinct lack of Tom Brady. Brady's suspension is over now and he'll be eager to get going after leading the league in touchdowns last season. It's time for the Tom Brady Middle Finger tour, you almost feel bad for the Cleveland Browns.
152.5 QB Rating
Ben Roethlisberger put up a 152.5 QB rating against the Kansas City Chiefs, who had been giving up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing QB's. Ben's 300 yards, 5 TD performance will certainly put a dent in those numbers. This is the 8th game of his career where he finished with a QB rating over 150 - he has 3 games with a perfect score of 158.3. The Steelers struggled last week, but with the return of Le'Veon Bell, expect full steam ahead with the best QB-RB-WR punch in the league.
19 Points
No kicker has put up 20 points yet this season. Mike Nugent and Dustin Hopkins both share the top spot with 19 points. Why bring this up, you ask? Throwing darts at a wall is as good an option as any when it comes to picking a kicker week to week. Nobody is that consistent - AHEM, Stephen Gostkowski and your zero points. Well, this column is called Statistically Insignificant, after all. This stat is pretty useless. The third best kicker this season is only owned in 11% of leagues - there's a stat you can use. Now go pick him up, or throw a dart at the wall, I don't care - it's a kicker!
77.60 Points
DeMarco Murray has 77.60 points already this season, helped along by his 5 touchdowns. He's first among non-QB's, and 8th overall among all players. He's got the number 2 guy, Melvin Gordon, beat by 10 points. Stand up if you had these two guys leading the league after 4 weeks, even above the stud WR's. Of course, one person did have them - my opponent this week, damn you ReDraft!
The start of week 5 means we are nearly a third of the way through the fantasy regular season for most leagues. Hopefully, your team is sitting in a good position, but if it's not that just means you have higher priority on the waiver wire to use my advice try and turn things around! Four teams are on bye this week; Saints, Seahawks, Jaguars and Chiefs.
Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo leagues at the time of publication.
Carson Wentz (PHI) - 38% owned - Coming off a bye-week Wentz gets an amazing matchup against a Detroit defense giving up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. He's a great fill-in if your QB is on bye and even if your QB isn't you should still consider him as a plus streaming option.
Honorable mention: Joe Flacco (BAL) - 34% owned
Terrance West (BAL) - 29% owned - West ended up being named the starting running back for the Ravens in week 4 after they surprisingly announced Justin Forsett as a healthy scratch. He made the most of the opportunity by putting up 113 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. He will have some competition for the starting position coming with Kenneth Dixon returning from injury, but has the first opportunity to separate himself in week 5 against a Redskins defense giving up an awful 133 rushing yards per game.
James White (NE) - 28% owned - White has thus far underwhelmed after taking over for the injured Dion Lewis but he's definitely worth a speculative add this week to see if the return of Tom Brady impacts his fantasy value.
Honorable mention: Kenneth Dixon (BAL) - 25% owned
Robert Woods (BUF) - 23% owned - With Sammy Watkins being placed on injured reserve Woods is now the number 1 receiver in Buffalo. While I don't see him as a great talent, I do consider him to be great depth and for your team as an every-week WR3 strictly based on the volume of targets.
Eddie Royal (CHI) - 13% owned - Royal has a long time history of being fantasy fool's gold, but it did look as though he and Hoyer had a connection last week against the Lions after he caught 7 of 7 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. There are talks of Hoyer keeping the starting QB position in Chicago long term if he continues to play well which might mean more upside for the speedy Royal.
Honorable mention: Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) - 37% owned
Cameron Brate (MIN) - 10% owned - Brate has looked to take on a big role in the Bucs offense since Austin Seferian-Jenkins was cut, catching 10 of 18 targets for 113 yards and two touchdowns. The volume of targets should make him a high floor play if you need a TE fill in.
Honorable mention: Jacob Tamme (ATL) - 45% owned
Defense/Special Teams
Buffalo Bills (BUF) - 44% owned - The Buffalo defense is quietly is tied for the second most fantasy points through four weeks and they have a plus matchup against the LA Rams this week. They are my streaming defense of the week.