Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

The time for drafting and sleepers and value picks and auctions have all past, it's now time for real football to be played! Week 1 starts on Thursday night with the matchup between the Panthers and Broncos in the mile-high city. Make sure you also check out our podcast where Dave and Jason break down all the Week 1 matchups.

Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 9/6/16: Week 1 Preview

As far as this week's rankings go, it's Week 1, so it's probably going to be the biggest crapshoot of the year. You are likely going to have very few decisions to make on Sunday - this is a good thing. Go with the guys you drafted high and be patient. If you are interested in a few guys we're high on, look for Kirk Cousins to do well against Pittsburg, Danny Woodhead to get some nice garbage points in KC and Larry Fitzgerald to shine on a team that is 3-deep at wideout.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

106 Yards

Lamar Miller, Houston's new featured back, ran for 106 yards on Sunday and is, thus far, the only back in week 1 to even break 100 yards. This is the lowest total in Week 1 going back at least 20 years (I suspect of all time). The only year with a total close to being this low was 1999, but in that season, 4 people had between 109 and 112 yards. To be fair, there are several backs that can pass this tonight, but overall this is still a historically low rushing total to start the season. The NFL is truly shifting into a passing league. (Editor's note: DeAngelo Williams ran for 144 yards, however only 2 players over 100 rushing yards is still remarkable for any week.)

11 Kickers

So far in Week 1, 11 kickers have reached the double-digit promised land. Four of them are owned in less than 10% of Yahoo leagues, so it just goes to show that streaming kickers is always an option, and drafting them before the last round is (almost) always a waste.

0-2

Thus far the two highest scoring QB's of Week 1 both lost their game. Both Luck and Brees found themselves on the losing sides of a shoot out, which usually produces the best fantasy games. It lends credence to the old saying, "the best fantasy offense is a weak real-life defense".

26 Targets

Dak Prescott's debut showed that he's Mr. Checkdown, sending 14 targets to Jason Witten and 12 to Cole Beasley. While it didn't translate into a ton of production for either player, they will serve as a temporary replacement for Keenan Allen, at least until Tony Romo comes back. As efficient as Prescott looks, if he can't throw it deep, he won't play one week longer than necessary.

77 Years

Carson Wentz was the first rookie to start in Week 1 for the Eagles since 1939, and it's something they might want to considering trying more often. Wentz looked good, throwing for 278 yards, 2 TD (including the very first of the day Sunday) and had zero turnovers.

Christine Michael has had a wild ride in his NFL career so far, and I do not expect that wild ride to end anytime soon. You may recall the hype last year as some folks thought Michael would run away with the Dallas job when given the chance. After being cut by the Cowboys, spending time on the Redskins practice squad, then being re-signed by the Seahawks, Michael is back to wreak havoc on Fantasy owners.

Expectations for week 1 were an even split but giving Michael the nod to start. The good news here is that Michael made the most of his carries vs Miami. He had 15 carries for 66 years (4.4 YPC) and added 2 catches for 5 more yards. Not a great game by any means but nice to note he had a better game in a near even split with Rawls. (Rawls stat line – 12 carries 32 yards (2.7 YPC) and 3 receptions for 26 yards)

I expect Rawls' usage to increase in the weeks to come but if he continues to disappoint then our favorite hype train should pick up more steam.

We also want to keep an eye on Russell Wilson and his ankle injury. Pete Carroll says it is nothing serious, but if for some reason Wilson misses time, the whole Seahawks offense will take a major hit.

All in all, I am usually the first one to hop on a hype train but I would temper expectations this year. I expect this backfield to be a time-share the whole season with both backs earning carries and having RB2/flex appeal depending on matchups. I can not see a scenario where Michael is the workhorse unless Rawls suffers another injury. In which case, CHOO CHOO!

2016 Prediction

654 rushing yards and 5 TD’s

Keenan Allen – Torn ACL- Out for Season

Fantasy football aside, you just have to feel bad for Keenan Allen. This is a big blow for fantasy owners who may have drafted him in the second or third round. This will open up more targets for Travis Benjamin, Dontrelle Inman, and my favorite of the three Tyrell Williams. Also going to give a bump to Antonio Gates and Woodhead. Hoping for a speedy recovery for Allen and looking forward to seeing him back out next year.

Robert Griffin III – Broken bone in non-throwing shoulder- Placed on IR

Two things we can count on: the sun coming up in the morning and RG3 suffering injuries. Joking aside, it's tough to see even as a Steelers fan. RG3 just can’t stay healthy and I am hopeful you were not starting or planning on starting RG3. Good news is McCown is back and Gary Barnidge owners can breath easier.

Sammy Watkins – Sore foot- Day to Day

News broke this morning that Watkins may be shut down for the year and thankfully that is not the case. It seems there aren't any structural issues with his cyborg foot, but he is sore and feeling a lot of discomfort. If you own Watkins, buckle up for a bumpy ride. We can expect to see a Q next to his name for the remainder of the season.

Zach Ertz – Rib Displacement- Week to Week

Good news is Ertz did not break or crack a rib. Bad news, coach Pederson said this is not the kind of injury Ertz can play through. Something to monitor, but owners should be looking for a replacement for the next few weeks.

Russell Wilson – Sprained Ankle- Day to Day

Russell avoided the dreaded high ankle sprain and is expected to start Sunday. He will be limited at practice this week but should see the field vs the Rams. If you drafted Wilson, chances are you are going to play him. However, I would temper expectations and see how he is moving on that ankle come Sunday.

Demaryius Thomas – Hip- Day to Day

Thomas suffered a hip injury during the Panthers game Thursday and had an MRI done on Friday. Thankfully it's all good news and he was even on the practice field Monday morning. No real concerns here.

Julius Thomas – Sprained Ankle- Day to Day 

Julius suffered an ankle sprain Sunday vs the Jaguars. This is worth watching because Thomas has a history of ankle issues. We should know more in the next few days but all signs are pointing to Thomas playing on Sunday against the Chargers.