Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 1 is upon us. By now you should have your team drafted and it's all about picking the right guys to fill out the lineup and get off to that all-important 1-0 start. Before the bye weeks hit, the strategy should be pretty simple: Start your studs. Unfortunately, injuries may already be derailing that if you own(ed) Jordy Nelson, Kelvin Benjamin, C.J. Spiller, Arian Foster, Mike Evans, Tre Mason, or any other player who is out or questionable for week one. Perhaps there is a rookie who could fill that void and help you get in the win column. Each week I'll break down the rookie matchups, listing which guys you should start, which ones are borderline options, and which ones you should keep planted on the pine. I'll also include a couple of sleepers each week for deep leagues who could also be cheap options for those who play daily or weekly fantasy games. So, without further ado...

(Note: Both quarterback projections are for 2 QB leagues. Both should be sitting in 1 QB format)

Rookies to Start:

QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): Famous Jameis gets one of his easiest matchups of the year in week one. The Titans have been a mess for a couple of years now, and most of their offseason additions will help on the offensive side of the ball, not defense. The Titans did bring in long time Steelers D coordinator Dick LeBeau, and he's traditionally made life hell on rookie signal-callers with his aggressive blitz schemes, but I doubt he has the personnel to wreak the havoc he's used to. I'd project Winston for about 225 yards and 2 TDs, which should make him a solid start in 2QB leagues (don't start him if you only get one). This projection takes a minor hit if Mike Evans is a no-go.

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): Things have been kind of quiet on the Amari front through training camp. There was one great highlight of him burning Patrick Peterson in a preseason game on a comeback route, but otherwise there hasn't been much buzz. He's been flying a little under the radar. That changes on Sunday when the Raiders get to break out their new toy. Derek Carr will funnel Oakland's new #1 WR with targets, and I expect at least 7 catches in a stellar debut. He should be especially solid in PPR formats.

WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 1: @Atl.): The Falcons' defense wasn't very good against WRs a year ago, and there haven't been any substantial improvements made. J-Matt is number one in the pecking order, but he'll see a lot of Atlanta's top CB Desmond Trufant, and Zach Ertz's status is still up in the air. I'd expect a lot of volume to come Nelson's way. He has potential to be a solid WR2 in PPR leagues this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 1: @TB): Tampa Bay is back to running Lovie Smith's Tampa 2 defense, which is a bend-but-don't-break scheme featuring a lot of zone pass defense. If there's one thing Mariota showed in college, it's that he knows how to get the ball to guys in space, and there will be some soft spots in that zone. Unfortunately for Mariota, I'd expect a pretty conservative gameplan from Whisenhunt in the first start of his career. His running ability gives him top-15 QB potential this week, but I'd have to be pretty underwhelmed by my QB2 to roll the dice on Mariota. The Bucs allowed an NFL-low 78 rushing yards to opposing QBs last season.

RB T.J. Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 1: vs. Car.): The Panthers have an imposing front 7 on paper, but they were just a middling defense vs. RBs a year ago. The Jaguars' offense is ascending, but the o-line still has a little work to do. Yeldon makes an intriguing flex option this week, but I'd be happy with 75 yards and a TD from him in his debut. If you think you have better options than that, play them. I will say, I do like Yeldon better this week than...

RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 1: vs. Det.): Let's not kid ourselves, you likely drafted Melvin Gordon to play him. He's probably your RB2, but he's only a 2-down back. He will continue to give way to Danny Woodhead in passing situations, and there might be a lot of those this week. The Lions allowed the 3rd fewest RB points last year, and yes they lost Ndamukong Suh, but they did replace him with Haloti Ngata, who was an integral part of the Ravens' defense last year. The Ravens allowed the fewest RB fantasy points. I'm not saying Ngata isn't a dropoff from Suh, just that he isn't as much of one as you might think. Temper your expectations for Gordon this week. Anything over 50 total yards would be a promising debut.

RB Tevin Coleman, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. Phi.): The Eagles did give up 20 TDs to opposing RBs last season, but the front 7 was still stout, allowing just 3.5 ypc and just the 11th most fantasy points to RBs despite allowing them the 4th most TDs. Kyle Shanahan should improve the Falcons' running game, but week one could be a dicey one. I'd expect 12-15 touches for Coleman, and he has big play speed, but you'd basically be hoping he breaks a long one or finds pay dirt if you start him.

RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 1: @SD): After Joique Bell missed the entire preseason, I'd expect a decent sized role for Abdullah in week one. He should be solid flex option in PPR leagues, and I'd expect him to pull in 5+ receptions. The Lions know what a special playmaker AA can be, and they should look to get him involved. Don't go crazy here, we're still likely only talking about 10-12 touches, but there is upside in PPR formats.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Johnson was just cleared to resume practice Wednesday after suffering a concussion in the only game that he played in the preseason. Yes the Browns only have 2 running backs on the roster after trading away Terrance West, but I'd expect the bulk of the work to go to Isaiah Crowell. Johnson looks to be the 3rd down and receiving back for the Browns, but only 3 teams allowed fewer catches by RBs last season than the Jets, and new head coach Todd Bowles's Arizona team allowed just 3 more RB receptions than those Jets.

RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. NO): The Saints were among the worst in the NFL against RBs a season ago, and things didn't get better when they released Junior Galette and lost Curtis Lofton in the offseason. Unfortunately for Johnson, there's no real telling what his role in the offense will be. He looked to be the clear number 2 to Ellington early on in preseason, but the addition of Chris Johnson has muddled the picture somewhat, especially after CJ looked good in the final preseason game. This is a situation best left avoided for week 1.

WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 1: @Jax.): The Panthers still won't commit to Funchess as a starter despite the Kelvin Benjamin injury. They have him listed with the second team, and will likely employ a conservative gameplan against a Jags team that was sieve-like against the run last year. With that said, I think the Jacksonville defense quietly came together late last year and will bump up to the middle of the pack of NFL defenses this season. I expect Funchess to disappoint in week one. Unless you're in a pretty deep league, you should have better options this week.

WR Breshad Perriman, BAL (Wk. 1: @Den.): He seems unlikely to play this week, so that should make the decision easier on you, but after limited practice time in camp, he's a poor bet to produce even if he's in the lineup. It's not a good week for him to be hurt. This should be a pass-happy week for the Ravens as they try to keep pace with Denver.

WR Devante Parker, MIA (Wk. 1: @Was.): I love Parker's upside this year, and it's very encouraging from a health standpoint that DeVante played at all in the final preseason game, but I expect him to be eased into regular season action with Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings playing more snaps early on. I could regret this recommendation given who the 'Phins are playing, but I don't think Miami will need much help from Parker to vanquish the Redskins.

WR Phillip Dorsett, IND (Wk. 1: @Buf.): At this point, the Colts' wide receiver depth and gameplan are way too uncertain to play Dorsett. All indications are that he beat out Donte Moncrief for the 3rd WR spot (Moncrief is listed as the starting return man), but we still don't know for sure if the offseason talk of the Colts running more 3 & 4 WR sets and less 2 TE sets was just talk or not. There's a very real chance Dorsett puts up a goose egg.

TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 1: @Den.): I know, the Ravens have to throw to somebody, why not Williams? While I think he's easily the best rookie TE in this class, at 21-years old, the sheer physicality of playing tight end in the NFL will take him some getting used to. There's a reason rookie tight ends typically don't produce in year one. Look for Crockett Gillmore to open the season at the number one TE, and for Williams to work his way into that role as the season progresses.

Deep League & DFS Sleepers:

RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Mia.): Things could get really ugly this year for the Redskins. They'll be playing from behind a lot. Alf Morris is essentially a zero in the passing game, and his yards per carry average is 1.25 yards lower with anyone other than RG3 under center. Add in that the coaching staff has been singing Jones's praises, and Morris is in the final year of his contract, and it adds up to the torch being passed to Jones before the end of the year. I think he'll have a big role before that happens, and it starts week one. Look for close to a 50-50 split of touches between Alf and Jones, and look for Jones to be more impressive with them.

WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 1: @TB): DGB has impressed thus far in camp and the preseason, and the Titans are carrying just 4 wide receivers on the roster into the opener (Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas, Justin Hunter & DGB). Green-Beckham is easily the toughest cover of the group with his freakish size and athleticism, and I don't think anyone on the Bucs is big enough to cover him. He's the best bet of any Titans' pass catcher to score a TD in the opener.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps. Week one is always an unpredictable one for the rookies, so play it safe where you can, and go get a week one win. Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun...It's just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one was full of surprises...the Bills topped the Colts, Peyton Manning's poor finish to 2014 seemed to carry over to 2015 despite the Broncos' win, and Dez Bryant suffered a broken foot. The surprises weren't limited to the veterans, however. Marcus Mariota and Ameer Abdullah both put up epic debuts, Jameis Winston had a premeire to forget, Nelson Agholor was almost invisible, and Rashad Greene was targeted a whopping 13 times. What does it mean for week 2? Let's take a look at what to expect...

It is no wonder the NFL is the most popular sport in America. Week 1 is fresh in the books and the drama and excitement is still a buzz around the water cooler. Seattle goes down in St. Louis where we are never surprised to see a shootout, Indianapolis was the first casualty of the stout Rex Ryan coached Bills Defense and Peyton Manning has to be wondering “why he came back one more year” (read to the jingle of his Nationwide commercials). Fantasy owners are already feeling the pain too after injuries brought down players like T.Y. Hilton, Dez Bryant, Andre Ellington and Ladarius Green. Fear not fellow fantasy family! The early weeks of the football season bring with them a wealth of waiver wire potential.

Tyrod Taylor, BUF – The Bills shocked the heartland with a week 1 win over the visiting Colts. At the helm was first year starter Tyrod Taylor. He went 14-19 for 195 yards and a touchdown while adding 41 yards on the ground. The Bills were obviously cautious with Taylor only having 19 passing attempts; however he showed confidence with a 51 yard bomb to Percy Harvin. Taylor is only owned in 10% of leagues. Next week he has a favorable match-up against a questionable New England secondary. His dual threat talents reduce the risk associated with his lack of passing attempts.

Alex Smith, KC – Alex Smith is only owned in 20% of leagues right now. He completed 22 of 33 passes for 243 yards with 3 touchdowns in week 1. Alex Smith’s value is increased this year with an upgrade in weapons like Jeremy Maclin and the return of Travis Kelce. Kelce was on full display in week 1 with huge yards and 2 of the 3 Smith touchdown passes. Smith has a good week 2 match-up hosting Denver on Thursday night. Thursday games tend to be sloppy; however Alex Smith excels at protecting the football so he offers limited risk.

Other players to consider are Andy Dalton (owned in 26%) who, like Alex Smith, has a big Tight End target in Tyler Eifert. Nick Foles (owned in 13%) with an average of 11 yards per pass in week 1 and favorable match-ups against Washington, Pittsburgh and Green Bay in 3 of his next 4 games.

Running Backs

DeAngelo Williams, PIT – The Pittsburgh at New England season opener feels like it was a long time ago after the excitement of Sunday. One of the standouts I remember from that game was DeAngelo Williams. He gained 127 yards on 21 attempts and looked very fresh with surprising bursts of speed. Andre Ellington owners should look to Williams for a week 2 start against San Francisco. It’ll be his last game with any value as LeVeon Bell is due back in week 3, but featured backs are limited in the NFL these days. Williams is only owned in 37% of leagues.

Chris Johnson, ARI – Andre Ellington didn’t even make it through one game before making his fantasy owners pay the price. While it appears to be good news that he isn’t lost for the season his owners will be looking for a replacement for a few weeks. Owners don’t have to look far as Chris Johnson will be the guy stepping in. Bruce Arians is likely to lean on the veteran over the rookie David Johnson. Chris Johnson is long removed from his CJ2K season but he does have a favorable match-up against Chicago in week 2.

Other players to consider Bishop Sankey (owned in 47%) because of his ownership percentage he wasn’t a featured waiver pick up but if he is available in your league you should jump on that immediately. Danny Woodhead (owned in 50%) is another guy who doesn’t make the cut as a waiver feature but should be owned, proving to be the touchdown vulture in week 1.

Wide Receivers

Donte Moncrief, IND – The Colts got some positive news today regarding T.Y. Hilton however he is still likely to miss at least week 2. Moncrief proved to be a highly targeted option for Andrew Luck in the week 1 disappointment. He had 6 receptions on 11 targets for 46 yards with a touchdown. The week 2 match-up is tough against the Jets secondary but the Colts offense is designed to be high flying. The fact that Moncrief had so many targets points to a trust between him and Luck. In week 2 Moncrief will have more opportunities to make an impact. He is only owned in 11% of leagues.

James Jones, GB – When Jordy Nelson went down for the season there were question marks regarding who would step up. The late James Jones signing only added intrigue but week 1 answered any questions as to who would complete the Packers receiving core. Jones caught 2 touchdowns against the Bears in week one and caught all of his four targets for 51 yards. I expect to see Cobb and Adams seeing a bulk of the targets, but Jones proved his worth in the red zone and that simply cannot be ignored in fantasy formats. Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay are also known to spread the ball around so Jones solidifying that WR3 role on the team makes him a legit WR3 in fantasy too. He is only owned in 31% of leagues.

Terrance Williams, DAL – Dez Bryant is lost for 4-6 weeks and Terrance Williams will step up as the #1 in Dallas. In week 1 Williams saw 8 targets coming down with 5 of them for 60 yards. He had a chance at a TD too but dropped it. Williams is my favorite WR pick up this week simply because of the role he is moving into. He is owned in 57% of leagues so if he is available you need to act fast prioritize him high. Terrance Williams and Dallas has a very friendly next four weeks as they face Philadelphia, Atlanta, New Orleans and New England; All with suspect pass defenses.

Other players to keep an eye on are Percy Harvin (owned in 41%) who caught all 5 of his targets in week 1. Tyler Lockett (owned in 30%) has more to prove before being used regularly but his special teams play this week makes him a good pick up for teams looking to add depth early in the season.

Tight Ends

Heath Miller, PIT – Play-making tight ends are very limited but week 1 proved just how valuable they can be in fantasy football. See Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert or Rob Gronkowski for proof. If you are finding yourself in a disappointing jam heading into week 2 look at Heath Miller. He caught 8 of his 11 targets in week 1 for 84 yards. Miller was a chain mover for Roethlisberger and will see an increased roll while Martavis Bryant finishes his suspension. Miller is only owned in 49% of leagues.

Other players to look for are Ladarius Green (owned in 20%). If you have the room on your roster you might want to make this move as he looked great in week 1 with 5 receptions for 74 yards and touchdown.

Kickers

Brandon McManus, DEN – It is tough to go wrong with a Denver kicker in the thin air. McManus nailed two 50+ yarders in week 1 on top of a 40+ and 30+. A good start for a guy with accuracy concerns. Next week Denver leaves the thin air for KC on Thursday night. I expect to see the Denver offense bounce back and move the ball, but Thursday night games are interesting as shorter prep time can often lead to stalled drives. Good for kickers. At the very least you’re picking up a guy who has 7 more games in Denver. He is only owned in 19% of leagues.

Josh Brown, NYG – Fantasy strategy allows for the kicker position to often time be shifted by match up. If you follow such strategy than Josh Brown is your guy to pick up this week. He was perfect in week 1 that included 40+ and 50+ field goals. His upcoming schedule is favorable against the weak defenses of Atlanta and Washington. He is owned in 14% of leagues.

Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens defense kept Peyton Manning and the Bronco’s out of the end zone all day. They pressured Manning all day sacking him 4 times and disrupting 6 more pass attempts. Losing Suggs is going to hurt a little bit but as a unit the Ravens looked good and should manage to overcome the loss. They have a very favorable week 2 against Oakland with favorable match-ups in weeks 3 and 4 against Cincinnati and Cleveland too.

Week 2 was full of successes and missteps, as it always is. It was also a week that included tons of unexpected wins or losses for teams with different expectations (here's looking at you, Eagles). It's important to remember that the first few weeks of every NFL season are filled with turmoil, and should be treated as such. Don't make any rash moves by dropping under-performing players just yet, but absolutely scoop up and stash a few of our weekly waiver picks while they are still available. The trick is to get these guys while the getting is good. Good luck!

Tyrod Taylor, BUF – (owned in 15% of leagues) Taylor impressed in week 1 and was included in our initial waiver wire picks. Week 2 only brought more production from the rookie QB as he ended the day with 3 passing TDs and ran one in himself as well. There are downsides still, though, and Taylor did have 3 INTs in week 2. As he gains experience those mistakes should be tempered but the upside is what we're looking for here. Taylor likely won't be available in most leagues after this week.

Andy Dalton, CIN – (owned in 30% of leagues) Dalton is the line by which we generally measure all of the other QBs in the NFL. The 'Andy Dalton Line' determines whether a QB is above or below average. This year may change that, though, as Dalton has thrown 5 TD passes and no INTs over 2 games and the Bengals' passing offense looks to be running on all cylinders in 2015. Barring injuries to guys like Green, Kelce, Jones and Bernard, Dalton could make a case to be started on a week-to-week basis going forward.

Other players to consider are Blake Bortles (owned in 9%) who has developed great chemistry with Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas's impending return to the field will also add value. Derek Carr (owned in 14%) will likely be throwing passes from behind for most of the season and that generally bodes well for some garbage time touchdowns. Amari Cooper is also coming into his own on the Raiders.

Running Backs

Matt Jones, WAS – (owned in 23% of leagues) Jones was drafted to be the passing down complement to Alfred Morris's early down role, but his current trajectory has him on course to eclipse Morris's touches eventually. In week 2, Jones was just a few touches shy of Morris and he continues to impress not only in 3rd down situations but also in early down use, spelling Morris. A pickup on the waiver wire now may be the only time that Jones is available for the rest of the season.

David Johnson, ARI – (owned in 34% of leagues) Johnson was billed as the bigger, faster version of Andre Ellington and he has certainly proved to be a valuable commodity on the Cardinals so far this season. Johnson has the highest points per touch in the NFL so far this year and the only issue is how much production Bruce Arians will allow him to have on a weekly basis. If there is any time to play him, though, it's now - when Johnson needs to prove his worth while Ellington is out.

Other players to consider are James Starks (owned in 11%) because Eddie Lacy exited the game in week 2 with an ankle injury and is not a lock to play in week 3. If Lacy should be inactive this week, Starks is immediately a RB2. Ronnie Hillman (owned in 36%) could take over the lead back role in Denver if C.J. Anderson continues to struggle after his week 1 injury. He's worth a pickup because whoever ends up with that job will get enough work to be an every week starter.

Wide Receivers

Travis Benjamin, CLE – (owned in 14% of leagues) Benjamin has scored 3 TDs on only 6 receptions over the past two weeks. His stats are gaudy and he is worthy of a pickup in every league, but you must be wary with this sort of situation: not only does Benjamin seem like a boom or bust player, but the Cleveland offense is very much not locked in to any kind of rhythm. Still, even if you're not starting Benjamin you need to put in a claim for him if you are needy at wide receiver.

Michael Crabtree, OAK – (owned in 23% of leagues) As I mentioned earlier, Derek Carr is definitely an up and coming QB in the league and his main weapons (Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree) will enjoy a high amount of targets in most games this season. Crabtree is a talented receiver with a good pedigree who only really broke out in 2012 while playing for the 49ers. He has the opportunity in 2015 to become fantasy relevant once more, now that he is playing across from the newly drafted Amari Cooper, who should draw the coverage away.

Marvin Jones, CIN – Jones had more snaps than Mohamed Sanu this past week, and things look good for Jones to finally make an impact. Remember, Jones was playing out of his mind in 2013 and scored 10 TDs before being lost for the entire 2014 season due to the same kind of injury that Dez Bryant suffered in week 1. With all of the weapons that Dalton has, Jones should have the opportunity to get free downfield on a regular basis and turn that into fantasy points.

Other players to keep an eye on are Dorial Green-Beckham (owned in 19%) who has monster size, speed and potential, and Rishard Matthews (owned in 2%) who is becoming a favorite of Ryan Tannehill's when he can't find Landry downfield.

Tight Ends

Crockett Gillmore, BAL – (owned in 4% of leagues) Gillmore is a big target that didn't get much of an opportunity to produce last year, but is being leaned on big time in 2015 with Breshad Perriman sidelined until next month. Here is a guy that could solve your TE woes, at least until the Ravens get Perriman back from injury. I'm betting that Gillmore will still have a fantasy impact as a high end TE2 even afterwards, though.

Other players to look for are Richard Rodgers (owned in 8%). The appeal of "Rodgers to Rodgers" is just too seductive. But seriously, Rodgers impressed me with his physicality in his week 2 start against Seattle.

Kickers

Josh Brown, NYG – (owned in 25% of leagues) Brown performed well last week, and the Giants will be facing the Redskins in week 3 who have a fairly formidable rushing and passing defense so far in 2015. This translates to more field goal opportunities for a Giants team that can move the football downfield but may have trouble getting it into the end zone this week.

Josh Lambo, SD – (owned in 3% of leagues)

Defense/Special Teams

Cincinnati Bengals – (owned in 13% of leagues) The Bengals are among the top 10 defensive units in fantasy right now but are only owned by 13% of teams. This week, they play the Baltimore Ravens, who have provided a ton of fantasy points to defenses so far in 2015.