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The AFC south had 2 of the top 3 picks in this year’s draft, meaning that half of the division was really, really bad last year. The Colts did manage to make it to the AFC championship game, going through the Bengals and Broncos before a “deflating” loss in New England. This year, everyone looks to improve their team, and the Houston Texans are going to be featured on this season’s Hard Knocks, starting August 11^th.

Check our breakdown of the AFC South

Fantasy Football Podcast, 8/4/15, AFC South Spotlight: 2015 Fantasy Preview

Indianapolis Colts (11-5):

Add/Re-sign –

Frank Gore, RB – Signed as a FA, 8.5mil in guarantees, big things are expected.

Andre Johnson, WR – Signed as a FA, 3 year, 21 mil contract.

Andrew Luck, QB – Club exercised his 5^th year option, no brainer of the century.

Phillip Dorsett, WR – Drafted 1^st round, 29^th overall in a position they already have depth.

Josh Robinson, RB – Drafted in the 6^th round, gets lots of MJD comparisons.

Departures –

Trent Richardson, RB – Good riddance! The ploddingist of the plodders has gone where RB’s go to die.

Reggie Wayne, WR – A former Colts superstar is left on the outside looking in, and still looking for a new team.

Issues:

The Colts are second only to the Packers in recovering from losing the best QB in franchise history. In 2011, they chanted “Suck for Luck”. This year they are Super Bowl contenders, and the favorites in some minds in the AFC. The main reason for this is Andrew Luck, a guy who has improved in each season so far in his young Career. Last season he threw for over 4700 yards and 40 TD’s (league leader), rushed for 3 TD’s and lead his team to their third straight 11-5 regular season.

So, we know that Luck is going to be great, but who’s going to be the beneficiary of his arm? Last year, T.Y. Hilton lead the team in receiving, netting over 1300 yards on 82 receptions. I expect a similar output from him this season, despite the fact that the WR core is now stacked in Indy. The additions of Andre Johnsonand Phillip Dorsett, along with Donte Moncreif, Griff Whalen and Duron Carter means that Luck is going to have plenty of secondary targets to choose from. It’s hard to predict who else will be fantasy relevant, but I suspect that Andre Johnson will rise to the top and Phillip Dorsett will be given a huge chance to contribute.

Running Back has been the weak link of the Colts offense for a while now. They have finally put the worst trade of 2013 behind them and Trent Richardson has moved on to Oakland. In his place, they have given Frank Gore, a 31-year-old RB who has been under 1000 yards only once in the last 10 years, a bunch of guaranteed money. Gore has only Dan Herron and Vick Ballard behind him, so it’s clear that the Colts plan on giving him at least as much work in previous seasons, so expect around 275 carries from a healthy Frank Gore. He has had his role in the passing game in San Fran reduced in the last few seasons, but he’s been a big feature in the years before that. Pay attention during preseason to how much Luck throws to him out of the backfield. Gore has an ADP of 13 (overall 28) and could reasonably live up to that spot. I’m skeptical that rookie Josh Robinson has fantasy value in his first year based on the value that the Colts are placing on Gore.

Tight End might be the most “toss-up” position on the team, though it seems that Dwayne Allen will be taking the primary role, over Coby Fleener. Allen is a more complete player and is entering the season as the #1 TE on the team. I don’t expect anything more than a ceiling of low-top 10 for Allen, as there are just too many fast targets for Luck to hit and not enough work at the TE position. If Allen can put up the same TD’s as last season, he will find his way into the top 10 (12 last year).

Houston Texans (9-7):

Add/Re-sign –

Ryan Mallett, QB – Signed to extension, will compete for starting job.

Brian Hoyer, QB – Signed from Cleveland, will compete for starting Job.

Vince Wilfork, NT – As if they needed more help on their D-line.

Chris Polk, RB – Suddenly in the mix with the Foster injury.

Cecil Shorts, WR – Drink five! He was a FA, signed a 2 year, $6 mil contract.

Jaelen Strong, WR – Third round pick by the Texans.

Departures –

Andre Johnson, WR – Released by the team, signed by their toughest division opponents.

Case Keenum, QB – Traded to StL, they’re starting over at QB this year.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB – The smartest man in the NFL never gets to stay somewhere for very long, it seems. Traded to the Jets.

Issues:

The Texans will be featured on HBO’s Hard Knocks series this season, which to me, traditionally means a couple of things. First, any drama on the team will be exaggerated ten-fold. Secondly, these players are likely to be over-valued come draft time. Most people are not exposed to EVERYONE, so the players they are exposed to a lot will have an artificially inflated value. Finally, HBO will stress the biggest positional competition, which is QB this season, so that means more drama, more “at home” scenes and more uncomfortable cut scenes.

QB is definitely a position that is up in the air on this team. Everyone knows that QB is the most important position on the offense, and everyone knows that the Texans don’t have one yet. This puts far too much pressure on their running game and defense to be perfect. This year, it looks like camp will feature a competition between Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer. Hoyer started with the first team reps, but Mallett has also been taking reps with the starters. This battle won’t likely be decided until after the third preseason game has concluded. Even once a QB is chosen, I wouldn’t consider either to be a starter in any 10-12 man leagues.

The RB position, once secured by Arian Foster, is now up for grabs. Foster suffered a groin injury on 8/3 and it will require surgery and he will likely be on the IR/designated to return list to begin the season, meaning he won’t be eligible to return until week 10. This leaves a huge, warrior-poet sized hole in our season of Hard Knocks AND the Texans backfield. Alfred Blue, Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk will battle in camp to get the starter’s role. Blue will be the favorite to get the job, as he’s filled in for Foster in the past already, but it may end up being RBBC once the season starts. I’m just sad that we’re losing the guy who has tweets that warn us of the dangers of bacteria in your gums, confessions of stolen towels from Trump hotels and his disinterest in Seinfeld. Look at the news over the next few days, the Texans will be shopping for a free agent to add to this RB group.

The WR position has changed a bit in Houston, mostly since Andre Johnson will not be there for the first time in 12 years. Filling his shoes will be DeAndre Hopkins, the clear cut #1 WR on the team. Hopkins is known for catching nearly every catchable ball thrown his way. Hopkins has what it takes to be an elite WR in this league, he just needs a QB to get him the ball. Hopkins has an ADP of 13 (WR) and 29 overall. With even adequate QB play, he can live up to those numbers. Meanwhile, Cecil Shorts will be lining up opposite him. His adp is all the way down at 72 (WR) and 186 (overall), basically undraftable. I’m all for taking a flyer on him and making everyone drink five at the end of the draft, but don’t expect a ton of fantasy production out of Jaelen Strong or Cecil Shorts unless the QB gets a big improvement.

At TE, the Texans have Garrett Graham, (not Jimmy’s little brother). Graham has had a few spots of good play, but hasn’t been used enough to really be noticed, especially when he was behind Owen Daniels. It looks like Graham is going to move into the first string spot at TE, but your guess is as good as mine as to whether he will translate into a top 10 fantasy TE. There’s just too many questions at the QB position to answer it at this time.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13):

Add/Re-sign –

Julius Thomas, TE – The new juice got a 5 year contract as a free agent from Jacksonville.

Bernard Pierce, RB – Claimed off waivers from Baltimore.

T.J. Yeldon, RB – 2^nd round pick (36^th overall).

Rashad Greene, WR – 5^th round pick, 139^th overall.

Departures –

Cecil Shorts, WR – Left for Texas.

Ace Sanders, WR – Released in mid-July.

Issues:

As is tradition, the Jaguars lost their first round pick to injury – Dante Fowler tore his ACL just days after being drafted. The Jaguars did have a great draft, despite the injury, picking up T.J. Yeldon in the 2^nd and Guard A.J. Cann in the third, a guy who will probably start in week 1. With some added protection and tools for Blake Bortles, I expect him to begin the process of getting better. Bortles left a lot to be desired, but he was a constant presence on a team that hasn’t had a real QB since David Gerrard. Bortles is basically the same size as Ben Roethlisberger, and big QB’s have been having a lot of success in the league lately. Bortles has the potential to be an impact player for Jacksonville, but he needs a lot of work to get there. Bortles may be a relevant QB2 in leagues that start 2 QB’s, but even that’s a stretch, for now.

At WR, the situation is rather muddy. I hate to say it, but the departure of Cecil Shorts is likely to go unnoticed in Jacksonville. They have lots of young guys, but nobody who seems to want to step up into the main role. Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Rashad Greene & company are all going to see some of their targets go to Julius Thomas, easily the most talented pass catcher on the team (even if his greatest talent is having played with Peyton Manning). There isn’t much here other than bench depth. If someone goes down, it’s possible that another player gets a big enough role that he’s worth starting in a WR3 role, but I just don’t see the garbage time points that Jacksonville has been known for in the past. They are a team that is slowly improving, and as a result, is less likely to be getting blown out week after week.

The only place where the Jags are relatively loaded would be at RB. Rookie T.J. Yeldon is sitting on top of the depth chart and should get a decent amount of carries. Toby Gerhart will resume his backup role, one that he did well with in Minnesota (though it means zero fantasy production). Denard Robinson should continue to be a wild card and third down back and have limited PPR production value, though that increases if Yeldon can’t get on the field. This rbbc will irritate fantasy owners for sure, but there may be just enough value here for people to keep coming back.

As for the TE position, I feel that Julius Thomas is still a guy who can be in the top 10 TE’s at the end of the year easily. His ADP is 10 for TE’s and 99 overall, so I see some good value here. Be patient and scoop up Thomas late, or let someone else reach for him.

Tennessee Titans (2-14):

Add/Re-sign -

Marcus Mariota (QB, Rookie)

Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, Rookie)

Brian Orakpo (OL, from WAS)

Dick LeBeau (Assistant Head Coach, from PIT)

Hakeem Nicks (WR, from IND)

Harry Douglas (WR, from ATL)

David Cobb (RB, Rookie)

Departures:

Jake Locker (QB, FA)

Shonn Greene (RB, FA)

Nate Washington (WR, to HOU)

Outlook:

The Titans needed a reboot pretty badly after a terrible 2-14 season in 2014. So that’s what they did. And their offseason moves have been heralded by many as being among the best in the league. Starting from under center, The Titans drafted mobile QB Marcus Mariota at #2 overall to be the new franchise QB in Tennessee. Good riddance Jake Locker! Move over, Zach Mettenberger. Mariota will take the helm of this team in 2015 and with a huge amount of rope as well. As far as how he’ll perform from a fantasy perspective, comparisons to the athleticism and rushing ability of Colin Kaepernick have been made, but Mariota is a more skilled passer out of the box. We expect there to be some stumbling out of the gate, but Mariota should be a serviceable QB2 with a high ceiling going forward. He’ll be very interesting to watch, but unfortunately the rest of the team around him is not good enough to warrant drafting him yet in standard leagues.

Kendall Wright fell off the map last year (not entirely his fault, mostly due to inconsistent QB play) after putting up some impressive stats in his 2^nd year (94 receptions for 1079 yards and 2 TDs). Maybe he doesn’t gel very well with Ken Whisenhunt’s offensive scheme? Regardless, Wright is the #1 option for the Titans and will likely finish with an improved, but still mediocre stat line this year. His ADP is in the 15^th round and he’s likely off the radar in redraft leagues, though there is value there still in PPR and dynasty leagues as a WR4/5. After Justin Hunter’s arrest for felony assault, it looks like the #2 spot in Tennessee comes down to a battle between newcomer Dorial Green-Beckham and former Falcon Harry Douglas. Although Green-Beckham is the better raw talent, I’m betting that the veteran Douglas gets the start from day 1. The 6’5”, 237 lb (reported to camp at a stunning 246 lbs) rookie could be an outstanding receiver in the NFL eventually – but for now he is still a project. Lest I forget, Hakeem Nicks is now on the Titans. Eh, his production has declined for four years straight and Tennessee is not exactly the place where you go to revive a dying career. Not expecting much relevance from Nicks.

After the wheels fell off of Shonn Greene, the Titans parted ways with him and look to use a committee at RB in 2015, made up of Bishop Sankey, David Cobb and Dexter McCluster. In his 2^nd year, Sankey has been getting the first team reps at Titans’ camp but is looking as mediocre as he did last year (152 rushes for 569 yards and 2 TDs). The magic 8-ball says that all of these running backs will be involved in the offense, making it a frustrating experience for fantasy footballers everywhere. I do think that RB David Cobb may have a bright future in the league, but that is more of a far-off glimmer at this point. Stats from this rag tag group of backs will be disappointing, at best.

Tight end Delanie Walker has enjoyed two fairly productive years in 2013 and 2014 (most recently putting up 63 receptions for 890 yards and 4 TDs) and his ADP is somewhere between the 11^th and 12^th rounds in standard drafts. With a new QB and only scattered receiving talent on the field otherwise, Walker’s role should only improve in 2015. Many experts have him ranked at the tail end of the top 10 TEs for the upcoming season and I have to agree. He’ll be receiving a lot of dump-off passes from Mariota. Anthony Fasano seems like a great guy, but he’s not fantasy relevant.

Well it's here, folks. The 2015 fantasy football season is upon us. Here at drinkfive we're happy to bring you our preseason rankings, freshly baked from the oven. We'll continue to update these rankings over the coming weeks leading up to the start of the 2015 regular NFL season.

Some quick notes: Jamaal Charles grades out as our #1 overall draft pick in standard leagues - he is still very much the focal point of the Chiefs' offense, and the recent injury to backup Knile Davis can only play to Charles' advantage. Regardless, expect the world from a guy that has consistently put up the kind of points on a weekly basis that wins leagues. Newcomer C.J. Anderson on the Broncos is projected to be the bellcow back in Denver and has crept up to #3 overall in standard leagues. We're betting that Anderson builds on his excellent performances in 2014 to be a fantasy standout this season. Wide receiver Odell Beckham is out of control. Based on our ranking algorithm, he should be the #1 WR selected in standard leagues and should be all types of fun to watch play in 2015. Rob Gronkowski is leaps and bounds better than any other tight end in the league and will likely go toward the end of the first round in most fantasy leagues. Most other tight ends below Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are not valuable enough in our opinion to reach for early, so we would recommend waiting on that position to grab one or two of the lesser known guys like Travis Kelce or Jordan Cameron instead. Quarterbacks are a crap-shoot after Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, but if one of them falls to you early it's going to be hard not to pull the trigger!

Best of luck drafting in 2015, check back here often to see our updated preseason rankings for the 2015 season or catch up with us and other fantasy football experts at FantasyPros. To the 'ship!

Over the years, many different kinds of draft strategies have come about for fantasy football leagues - I've tried to lay out the basics below for a few of the draft strategies that I see more frequently, and posed some questions that we try to answer on the podcast. Do you have any comments or insights to add? Feel free to leave them in the comments section!

(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 8/11/15: 5 Draft Strategies to Consider) 

Best Available

It may seem perfectly obvious to some, but one very serviceable strategy during drafts is simply to take the best available player at any position that is available to you at that time. The main issue people run across when using this strategy is taking too many players at the same position. Say, for example, that the best player available on the draft board for 5 rounds in a row is a wide receiver. Should you simply continue to draft the best available player and hope to make trades later to make up any discrepancies at other positions? Should you compromise or bend your initial strategy to reach for another position that you have a bigger need at?

Zero RB
The prevailing strategy for a long time in Fantasy Football was to load up on RBs early. This was for a few reasons: RBs tended to be used as the focal point of the offense for a lot of teams (at least up until recently), RBs seemed to be more consistent than their WR counterparts on a week-to-week basis (at least up until recently) and there was a more severe drop off of talent at the position (since most teams had one particular RB that they fed the football. More recently, a lot of teams are favoring throwing the ball more consistently and using a RB-by-committee approach.
What does that information tell us? RBs are still an extremely valuable position for a fantasy football team, but recent changes to the game and to how the position is being used in the NFL have forced a shift toward WR value being closer to the top, or in some cases eclipsing the value of their more grounded counterparts. There are exceptions, and most of those involve either running backs that are also heavily involved in the passing game (Jamaal Charles & LeVeon Bell) or guys that still hold roles similar to those of the old days of smash mouth football (Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson).

Going with the Zero RB strategy asks you to forego the conventional fantasy wisdom that RBs are the most important assets to a team, and instead draft top-tier WRs, a TE and possibly a QB before dipping into the RB pool and selecting a variety of low to middle end situational guys with upside. Proponents of this draft strategy tell us that the top few tiers of RBs in the draft have the highest variance and therefore should be avoided. In other words, instead of high-risk picks at the beginning of the draft, you should be selecting guys that can offer a consistently good performance on the field while leaving some of that associated risk behind. Does this kind of strategy make sense even when you have the 1st or 2nd pick? Does the idea of Zero RB drafting get more enticing in a PPR league when WRs receive a rankings boost?

Value Based
Value Based Drafting (VBD) is a term that has been around since the 90’s. It refers to a particular strategy: by analyzing player’s past performances and calculating projections for them, and determining what the baseline player at each position is, you can determine the value of a player (which, using this strategy, is not simply how many points a player can score but rather how many more points he scores at his position than other players at the same position.

For example, although QBs score a large amount of points in most leagues, they are not usually among the most valued picks during the draft because in general they have low relative value compared to other positions at the same draft pick. That’s not to say that a player such as Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck will not score more fantasy points at the end of the year than other QBs, but the difference between their points and the QB baseline will be smaller than players like Marshawn Lynch relative to the RB baseline or Antonio Brown relative to the WR baseline. The problem is that these determinations rely on projected statistics, which are only estimations even if they are based on factual data.

Taking a look at the VBD data from 2014, for example, we can see that Rob Gronkowski was 40 points higher than the next best tight end in 2014 (Jimmy Graham). This tells us that if you can’t get Gronkowski in a draft, you should wait longer to select a tight end because their relative value decreases after Gronk. The same goes with Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck. If unable to land one of these two QBs last year, you were better off waiting until later rounds and instead taking players at RB and WR that would be the difference needed to win games.

Guided Tour
A strategy that I see all too often but will always encourage people to avoid. Far too many times, people walk into a draft with a set strategy in their head – not a strategy based on player value or lack thereof, but with a strict plan of what positions to target and in what order. I used to do this too, when I first started playing fantasy football. I would look at the previous year’s performance, or what positions seemed to have the best players available at the top rounds and create a roadmap in my head for the rest of the draft. RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, QB.. or WR, RB, RB, WR, RB, RB, WR, etc.

It makes sense in a very shallow sense. This also applies to people that draft a starting lineup and then begin to select players for their bench. Regardless of which strategy you choose to adopt, you should never, ever have a preconceived idea of which rounds that you want to draft specific positions in. The draft itself should dictate that. Besides that, you’re more likely to succumb to picking a positional player at the end of a run if you are thinking in this way. Don’t do it!

Late-Round QB

The Late-Round, or “Zero QB” strategy has become a popular one recently as well. There are so many quarterbacks in this league that produce at a consistent level, that the drop-off after the first few is not very large. In this case, doesn’t it make sense to wait until later rounds when you get take someone like a Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning or Philip Rivers? Those guys all have top 10 potential but at a 9th or 10th round price in a standard league.

This is a bit of an offshoot of both VBD and Zero RB strategies, as the value in picking a quarterback not named Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck is not deemed high enough and it makes more sense to fill those slots with players that provide more of an advantage in a match-up. Just for example, say that you’re playing against someone that took a QB in the 4th round (Drew Brees, for example). Well, instead of Brees there you could have had someone like Brandin Cooks or DeAndre Hopkins. Signing on to this particular theory is as easy as saying that you would rather have DeAndre Hopkins and Ryan Tannehill than Drew Brees and Kevin White. I would. Would you?

Tips from 'Beer4TheBeerGod' – big contributor to the /r/fantasyfootball subreddit:

1. Know thy league. If your league uses PPR and your cheat sheet is for standard scoring you're putting yourself at a disadvantage. Know your roster requirements, number of teams, starting lineups, and all of your scoring rules. Things like 2QB, keepers, superflex (which is a nice way of saying 2QB with the option to fail), big play scoring, and six point passing touchdowns can dramatically alter how you draft. You should also know your opponents and their tendencies. Is one player a massive homer? Consider how that will affect his draft strategy. Does your league tend to draft QBs super early? Exploit that by picking up valuable skill positions and going with a streaming QB approach. This also applies to whatever sources your opponents use to draft, such as the default rankings.

2. The level of risk you are willing to take should correlate with the round of the draft. Your early picks are not for flyers, they're for reliable sources of points that can form the core of your team. I've come to be very risk averse in my early picks, mostly because of the damage done by drafting guys like Darren McFadden or Toby Gerhart. Look at the history of your player and any disruptive factors (age, usage, coaching change, team change) that could increase the uncertainty of the prediction. I'm also not a fan of taking rookies in early rounds for this reason.

3. Know the opportunity cost of your draft choices. Opportunity cost is the essentially the price you pay for the road not travelled. In fantasy terms it's the value of the players you won't draft because of your choice, either because your positional need is decreased or because someone else will draft them. This is one of the core philosophies behind value based drafting, but it's more than just points. It requires you to not only know how you will draft, but ideally also your opponents. Will you drafting player X force your opponent to draft player Y, or will that guy still be around on your next turn? The greatest feeling in the world is when you make your pick and someone after you cries out in anguish.

4. Develop your own tools for draft day and practice with them. I started making BeerSheets because I wanted something I could print out, bring with me wherever I went, and know that I could follow it to create my team. It needed to be fast, easy to read, and provide enough information to make the right decision without overwhelming you with data. Some drafts let you bring computers, others are just yourself and your mind. Whatever the rules, make sure you have the tools available so that you can stay on top of the draft order and always get the most value.

5. Tiers are superior to rankings. There is no way to predict that player X will do better than player Y with enough fidelity to rank them before the season starts. This is why I'm such a fan of using tiers to determine the relative projections of players. Realistically if two players are ranked right next to each other then there probably isn't enough of a difference to matter and you should be considering other qualities such as historic performance, opportunity, injury risk, competition, and upside.

6. Don't be a homer, but it's okay to have multiple guys on the same team. Aside from bye weeks it's not that big of a deal. What you don't want to do is be predictable enough for someone else to exploit your tendencies. The other side of this is drafting players from your team's rival. Can you stomach having someone you hate on your team? If the value is there consider swallowing your pride. Moral victories are for losers.

7. Don't be afraid to reach. The best experts in Fantasy Football average a 60% accuracy. Remember that the numbers are just guesses, and if you have a gut feeling there's nothing wrong with going with it. In the end it's your team and you should be happy with it.

8. The less predictable a position, the later that position should be drafted. This means drafting kickers and DSTs very late unless your scoring rules are weird enough to require a special strategy. Unless your draft rules require that you fill out your roster then don't bother getting a kicker. Use that last pick on a total flyer and see if anything changes leading up to Week 1. Just don't forget to pick up a kicker off the WW before your first game.

9. The maximum value you will get for your trade bait is the draft pick you just wasted, so don't even bother. Some people exercise a strategy of picking someone up with the express purpose of trading them immediately. Remember, the four QBs you cleverly picked up even though you didn't need them were passed over by everyone else. You just sacrificed a team need for a lottery ticket that isn't likely to pay off. This is a particularly egregious mistake in the top half of the draft. This is different from drafting a late round flyer and hoping they turn out to be a sleeper, which is sound draft strategy.

10. You can lose your league in the draft, but you win it in the waiver wire. No matter how well or poorly you draft, that's only a part of the game. Once the draft is done the real game begins. Follow the waiver wire religiously, and don't be afraid to drop your late round scrubs for something more promising if you get more information. I'm less enthusiastic about preseason trades unless you have access to new information or you're fleecing a homer.

11. Mock until you can draft in your sleep. Mock drafting is a fantastic resource. Not only is it fairly fun, but it also helps you see how players will be taken and understand trends. If you can get to the point where you can instantly see a reach or a steal then when the real draft happens you'll be far more prepared.

The fantasy season is almost upon us, and every year we like to take the preseason to break down each position individually. We’ll be starting this year with the Quarterbacks. This article will focus on QB’s that have good draft value, and others that do not. Remember, this isn’t exactly who’s going to land in or out of the top 10 this year, but it’s who you can target, or avoid, in a draft to get yourself the best roster.

For a more in-depth discussion, check out our podcast from 8/18/15, The QB Show!

QB’s that have good value:

Can Palmer start all 16 games this season?

Carson Palmer - #11 on our rankings, Palmer is an excellent QB, when healthy. The Cardinals have a decent offense which was able to move the ball when Palmer was out last year. Their defense will make sure the offense gets plenty of possessions. Palmer has an ECR of 19, giving him the largest gap of any QB on our list. His ADP of 22 (153 overall) means that you can take him at the end of nearly every draft, and have a guy that we think should finish just outside the top 10.

Palmer Targets: Fitz!, Michael Floyd, Jaron & John Brown, Andre Ellington, CJ?K, Whoever starts at TE.

Relevant stats: Arizona threw the ball 35.1 times per game in 2014, right in the middle of the pack for the NFL. Palmer is on a 3-year trend upward (extrapolating last year's stats over 16 games). The Cardinals' window is closing fast, look for them to pull out all the stops to make a Super Bowl run this year.

Tom Brady - #8 on our rankings, he has an ECR of 14, mostly, I suspect, due to his looming suspension. If he plays all 16, I think he’ll go up a bit. Overall, I think we underestimate Tom every year, and every year he’s playing in January, so he must be doing something right. What we do know about Brady is that he has Gronk, and it doesn’t really matter who else is there.

Brady Targets: Edelman, Gronk!, Tyms, Amendola, Bolden/White/Blount/Gray, Reggie Wayne (New!), LaFell

Relevant stats: The Pats threw the ball 38.6 times per game last year, 7th most in the league. Brady has thrown over 30 TD's in 4 of the last 5 seasons, and usually keeps the INT's low. Don't be fooled by the lack of targets, it's never bothered Brady.

Tony Romo - #5 on our rankings, he has an ECR of 9 and an ADP of 8. Romo’s value is going up, he’s currently being drafted about 1 round higher than his overall ranking would put him, however we rank him even higher, so there is still value to be had here. Romo is a tough QB leading what is likely to be a top 5 offense in the NFL this season. Romo is the highest tier QB with a good value rating.

Romo Targets: Dez Bryant (over 135 targets each of the last 3 years), Witten, Williams, Beasley, Randle/Dunbar/McFadden

Relevant stats: Last year, Dallas threw the ball only 29.2 times per game, the second fewest in the league. Romo made the most of the times he did throw the ball, leading the league in completion % (69.9), TD % (7.8) and yards per pass attempt (8.5). He has been trending up in TD's and down in INT's over the last 3 years. Romo is playing better than he ever has and will need to pick up the slack after Demarco Murray's departure. Don't worry about his age either, he may be over 35, but he's only started 20 more games than Rodgers, so he has plenty of football left in him.

This guy got $65 million...

Philip Rivers - #10 on our rankings, his ECR is 13, so we’re not too far off there, but it’s a game of inches, isn’t it? Rivers just got a huge new contract, with something like $65 mil GUARANTEED. That means it’s his job to now go out and prove to the team that he deserves it. The Chargers’ ground game got a big upgrade this season, drafting Melvin Gordon #14 overall. This should take a bit of pressure off Rivers. Rivers had 31 TD’s, but also 18 INT’s. He’s generally not that errant of a passer, so if he can cut down on the picks, he will finish in the top 10 yet again.

Rivers Targets: Allen, Malcom Floyd, Jacoby Jones, Stevie Johnson (dave’s guy!), Gates/Green, Gordon/Woodhead/Oliver

Relevant stats: San Diego threw the ball 35.9 times per game last season, 14th in the league, but threw it 43 times per game in the last 3 games, two of which were against division opponents. Rivers has gone over 4000 yards in 6 of the last 7 seasons and over 30 TD's in 5 of them. He's wonderfully consistent and can be counted on to be in the top 12 every years. Pick him up when he's available late. Oh yea, the new contract doesn't hurt his outlook any.

QB’s that are overvalued:

Colin Kaepernick – Kaepernick is ranked 22 on our sheets and has an ECR of 15. He won’t be drafted as a starter in standard leagues anyways, but I wanted to just reiterate how much we do not like the 49ers offense this year. The rankings, thankfully, agree with us. His overall stats for the last 3 years have been underwhelming, so let someone else reach for him as their backup QB.

Kaepernick Targets: Boldin, Smith, Davis, Hyde/Bush – See why we aren’t hyped?

Relevant stats: the 49ers threw the ball only 30.4 times per game last year, good for 29th in the league. Kaepernick already only completes 60.1% of his passes through his career, so you need to rely on his feet to get you big points. The problem there is that his rushing TD's have gone from 5 to 4 to 1. Are you ready to bet it's going back up to 5? His Int's are the other alarming trend, going up each year that he's been in the league.

Cam's job got a lot harder with Benjamin going down.

Cam Newton – Newton has a rank of 13 on our sheet, but an ECR of 7. He’s clearly favored by pundits and fans alike, but our rankings sheet is not so high on him. Newton has slightly regressed in his stat line every year since he broke into the league back in 2011. Even though it may “feel” like Newton is due to rebound back to what he had his rookie year, his risk is not worth the price you have to pay. His ceiling is actually rather low, especially considering he will run less and less as he gets older. It’s not worth it, in my opinion, to draft a guy as the 7^th best QB when he really only has a shot at being #5 at the very highest.

Newton Targets: Benjamin, Ginn, Funchess, Cotchery, Corey Brown, Olsen, Stewart/Tolbert/Whittaker

Relevant stats: Carolina threw the ball 34.1 times per game last season, but Newton only has a career 59.5 completion %. Newton has also only thrown the ball about 31 times per game in his career, so I expect his pass attempts to stay flat, at best. Newton was only the 16th best fantasy QB last year, right above our buddy Kaepernick. At least he's above the Andy Dalton line.

Ryan Tannehill - #14 in our rankings, Tannehill is a guy who we have been pumping up all year, and it looks like we’re not the only ones. His ECR is 10, so the experts like him, and his ADP of 13 indicates that he hasn’t quite caught up to his ECR in the rest of the fantasy world. Here’s the thing though, Tannehill is the QB who is being hyped as the best value or biggest jump from last year. News like this spreads like wildfire and the draft season is now in full swing. Just this past weekend, I was in a draft where he was the 7th overall QB taken, late in the 6th round.

Tannehill Targets: Landry, Cameron, Jennings, Parker, Miller, Stills

Relevant stats: Miami was in the top half of the league, throwing the ball 37.2 times per game in 2014. Tannehill's stats have generally been trending up over his first three years in the league. They just got Jordan Cameron and drafted Devante Parker. Yes, things are looking up for Ryan Tannehill, but the secret's out. He's got a good shot at going too early in your draft. Give a silent nod and just move on. If he's available closer to his ADP of 13, then go for it.