Week 6 brought us lots of good times. We saw another shut out, we saw a stupid tie, tons of TD's from Joe Flacco and an impressive 4th quarter win by the Packers.
- The Bengals can win or lose with grace, but a tie? Sometimes kissing your sister is really going to piss you off. After a game the featured Vontaze Burfict apparently trying to injure Cam Newton after a tackle, CB Adam Jones (nee Pacman) called out his kicker for missing the game winning field goal at the end of OT. Yes, a 38 yard FG should be a sure thing for an NFL kicker, but mayyyybe you don't want to point fingers after you gave up 37 points to a team with no RB's and no WR's.
- Yes sir, those Cowboys look like they're for real this year. We'll see what the second half of the season has in store for them, but so far their ground game has pounded almost all comers into submission. The latest victim? None other than the reigning champs and their stellar defense. But do not worry, Demarco Murray has no fear. He tied Jim Brown's record of 6 games with 100 yards or more to start a season. Murray leads the league in almost every rushing stat and as we've said before, ride this wave as long as it will go! Keep giving Murray the ball, PLEASE!
- Jordan Reed has returned to the Redskins lineup. It's not always apparent who will succeed at TE in Washington (usually it's Reed), what is certain is that there's tons of production to be had at the tight end position in that offense. As long as one of them can stay healthy, they will be an excellent streaming or low end TE1 option the rest of the season.
- Victor Cruz is done for the season and this opens up the gates for Randle and Beckham Jr. to break out in a big way. The biggest issue with this is trying to figure out when the good Giants will show up. Maybe they just ran into a hot defense last night, but an offense that puts up exactly zero points is one to be wary of, for sure. Randle and Beckham Jr. should be a match-up dependent WR3 for the rest of the year (home games should be good, for example) with very high upside if one of them really develops quickly with Eli Manning.
- Kicking for Detroit has not been easy this season. The Lions are a measly 5 for 15 kicking field goals which includes an astonishing 2 for 12 from 40+ yards. Matt Prater may be the answer for their kicking woes, but he only went 1 for 3 outdoors in Minneapolis. Conditions will be optimum indoors in Detroit, of course, and the Lions are fully behind Prater as their guy. I'd view this game as nothing more than return jitters and he'll be a great fantasy option going forward.
- Joe Flacco went nuts in the first half of the game yesterday, throwing for 5 TD's in the first 16 minutes of the game. After that fifth touchdown pass, the Bucs win probability dropped to 0.0%. Flacco did not even attempt a pass in the 4th quarter. Now the 7th highest scoring QB, he's doing better than the likes of Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo and Cam Newton.
- Running backs continue to be one of the more volatile commodities. Only 19 RB's scored 10 or more points, among them such names as Theo Riddick, Antone Smith, Isaiah Crowell and Fozzy Whittaker. This just goes to show that maybe picking the big time WR's makes more sense, as they are much more likely to perform on a consistent basis. Just 7 of the top 25 RB's this week would have been considered high round picks this year.
- Wide Receivers are much more consistent, with 31 of them scoring in double digits. Only a few more, about 10 or so out of the top 25 are high draft picks. Maybe what all of this is showing is that while WR's might be more consistent, the best bet is to be playing the waiver wire as best you can. For example, a look at the top WR's in the drinkfive league shows that 10 of those WR's out of the top 25 are available on the waiver wire.
- Minnesota seems to be tipping in the favor of Jerick McKinnon already. This week, McKinnon had 17 touches and got 82 yards total. Matt Asiata, on the other hand, had had 2 carries for -5 yards and 1 rec for 18 yards. This is a huge departure from his 20 or so touches per game over the last 4 games. McKinnon is clearly the man going forward and it looks like his coaches are in agreement.
- Finally, a look at the Tight Ends. Only 7 TE's scored in the double digits, three of those being free agents in the drinkfive leage. At least one thing can be said about drafting TE's, 5 of the top 10 drafted TE's were in the top 10 this week (not including Jimmy Graham). Keep an eye out for Jordan Reed and Scott Chandler on the waiver wire going forward.
Each week in the NFL brings new surprises and disappointments to our fantasy teams. Staying ahead of this stuff is one way to forge and maintain a quality team and get them to the all-important playoffs! Here are some important blurbs along with their associated analyses that may clue you in on some important information before your opponents!
Joe Flacco secured a spot in the record books when he passed for 5 touchdowns faster than any other QB in NFL history. He may have thrown some more later in the game if it hadn't devolved to a blowout against the Bucs, finishing with a score of 48-17. Including this week's stats (21 for 29, 306 yards, 5 passing TD's), Flacco is now the #8 fantasy QB overall in standard scoring leagues. Looking ahead to his Week 7 match-up with the Atlanta Falcons, Flacco provides a tantalizing value for a QB that is still only owned in 51% of Yahoo leagues. The Falcons have consistently had one of the worst passing defenses in the league so far this season, allowing an average of 278 yards per game so far. Interestingly enough, they've only allowed 6 TD's through the air this year though.. I believe this can be explained by the 12 TD's that they have given up on the ground - seems it's no problem for teams to pass the football down to the redzone against the Falcons, and then most of them tend to run it in. So, will Flacco finish the year as a top 10 QB? With Torrey Smith's breakout game last week will the Smith & Smith combo stay productive on a weekly basis? Is Flacco a good play in Week 7 against the Falcons, or will most of the TD's stay on the ground?
Andre Holmes had a standout performance against the San Diego Chargers (who had previously had one of the league's best passing defenses and been one of the more consistent fantasy defenses) with 4 receptions for 121 yards and 2 TD's. With that game, he leads the Raiders with 20 targets over the last two games. New interim head coach Tony Sparano seems to have put a spark into the Raiders' offense and Derek Carr has been playing fairly well by limiting turnovers (though he could have a better completion percentage - last week he was only 18-of-34). The other relevant receiver from the Raiders is James Jones, who caught 5-of-7 targets for 56 yards and 1 TD in Week 6. He has quietly put up consistently good numbers all year, cementing him as the #24 WR overall in standard scoring leagues while only being owned in 38% of Yahoo leagues. The only receiver who has performed better overall while being owned by less teams is Malcolm Floyd at #20 overall and owned by only 24% of teams. Pretty impressive performances by each of them so far this season and they don't look to slow down anytime soon. Both are solid grabs on the waiver wire this week before people realize what's going on!
Knowshon Moreno just went on the IR, after apparently tearing his ACL during the game against the Packers in Week 6. We knew that he was a dicey start, but didn't catch anything about this while watching the game until it popped up on Twitter. Ouch, Knowshon.. Well, moving on - right? With Moreno out for the year (and maybe moving on to a new uniform next season), Lamar Miller will keep his spot as the Dolphin's lead back. He's been no slouch in that role, either, grading out as the #14 RB overall in standard scoring leagues with 400+ all-purpose yards and 4 TD's so far. Owned in 88% of Yahoo leagues, you probably can't scoop him up of the wire at this point but he should be an every-week RB2 start now - especially going up against the Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively. Both teams are giving up over 100 yards rushing per game.
Injuries are one of the biggest pitfalls to your fantasy football team. Unpredictable and quick to rear it's ugly head, the injury bug is most prevalent during this middle stretch of the season when everyone is tired and physically drained. If you stay on top of the injuries, though, you can make good decisions with fill-ins and replacements. Take a look at our Week 12 Waiver Wire Picks for more helpful advice.
Quarterback Injuries
Joe Flacco (QB, BAL) – Flacco is officially out for the season with a torn ACL and MCL. In what can only be described as a disaster of a season so far in 2015, the Ravens are losing weapons by the second. Matt Schaub will start immediately but is without fantasy value, and the Ravens picked up Jimmy Clausen – ex Chicago backup who was just waived – to hold the clipboard on the sideline.
Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF) – Anyone who watched Monday Night Football (NE vs. BUF) could see that Taylor was obviously in pain at least during the last quarter of the game. Continually clutching at his shoulder/collarbone area after passing the football is never a good sign. Coach Rex Ryan said that he would be ok, but it’s something to keep an eye on if your intention is to start Taylor against the Chiefs.
Running Back Injuries
Justin Forsett (RB, BAL) – Forsett was not on track to match his impressive 2014 performance this year, but he was obviously the lead back on the Ravens. After breaking both bones in his forearm against the Rams in week 11, it looks like rookie Buck Allen will be filling in as the uncontested starter for now. He had 22 carries for 67 yards and caught 5 passes for 48. The Ravens did just recently acquire Terrance West, but it’s not likely that he gets meaningful playing time at this point.
Marshawn Lynch (RB, SEA) – Lynch has been battling injury all year, and it looks like that injury may end up being diagnosed as a sports hernia.. which will either continue to cause Lynch pain and missed games, or require possible [regular] season-ending surgery. In either case, Thomas Rawls is the man in Seattle until Lynch suits up again and that may not be for quite a while.
Charcandrick West (RB, KC) – Obviously Kansas City has a pretty killer offensive line and whoever their ‘RB of choice’ is will have some nice production. West was showcasing a lot of talent since he was called upon to fill in for Jamaal Charles at the position, but is having an issue with his hamstring. However long West is sidelined, Spencer Ware should be able to provide a big portion of that production. West may go ahead and play this week, though, which would make Ware’s week 11 performance nothing more than a blip on the fantasy radar.
Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI) – A concussion leading up to this short week for the Eagles will likely keep Mathews sidelined.
Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL) – Another concussion knocked Freeman out of the game, but it looks like he is on track to play.
Wide Receiver Injuries
Michael Floyd (WR, ARI) – Floyd put up some big numbers in his last two games, but has been nursing a hamstring injury recently and it doesn’t look like he’ll be hurried back. If that’s the case, we could see rookie J.J. Nelson who put up 142 yards and 1 TD on 4 receptions this past week continue to be a go-to target in the offense.
Danny Amendola (WR, NE) – Amendola went down on Monday night with a non-contact injury (the kind that doesn’t look bad but can turn out to be way more serious than initially thought). Thankfully it looks like the extent of the injury is just a sprain but we won’t know any more about his availability going forward until injury reports come out on Wednesday.
Aaron Dobson (WR, NE) – On a tough day for the Patriots, more wide receivers went down including Dobson. Looks like this injury is fairly serious, and so we may see more of Chris Harper and Scott Chandler. At this moment, the only healthy and experienced receivers that the Patriots have are Brandon LaFell and Rob Gronkowski.
Tight End Injuries
Zach Ertz (TE, PHI) – A concussion will probably keep Ertz from playing this Thursday, allowing Brent Celek to step into his role as a primary pass-catcher. Celek is no Greg Olsen, but he has brought down 11 receptions for over 200 yards in the past two weeks and a questionable passing offense will likely continue to look to Celek to produce.
Jordan Reed (TE, WAS) – MCL sprains can sideline players for weeks, but it looks like this injury may heal rather quickly and the team doctors and management are currently expecting Reed to play this weekend.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 6 clearly demonstrated just how fickle the fortunes of fantasy rookies can be. Teddy Bridgewater and Sammy Watkins hit huge speed bumps, Bishop Sankey continued to struggle to breakout, Storm Johnson ran like every other Jacksonville running back, and Eric Ebron continued to under-perform with Calvin Johnson on the shelf. It wasn't all bad for the rooks though. Derek Carr had his biggest game of the season, Jeremy Hill, Isaiah Crowell and Jarvis Landry each found the end zone, Jace Amaro pulled in double-digit receptions and a score as well, Branden Oliver had another big game, and Jerick McKinnon finally looks like the starter in Minnesota. There should be plenty more rookie fun in store this week, so let’s dive in and talk about what to expect in week 7.
Rookies to start:
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 7: vs. KC): His match-up isn't quite as sweet this week, but the Chargers have been committed to the run game and Oliver has been far more effective than Donald Brown. He should be a very safe RB2 option this week, and maybe even a low-end RB1 in PPR leagues. Start him
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 7: @Dal.): If the Giants want to beat Dallas, they’ll have to get the run game going, and Rashad Jennings is out again this week. Williams is a punishing runner who will surprise Dallas with his physicality. I like his chances of being a decent RB2 this week and an excellent flex option. If he doesn't at least come close to 20 touches, I’d be very surprised.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 7: @GB): Kelvin has earned must-start status every week. Green Bay’s offense should keep Carolina throwing, and Benjamin should be trotted out there as a very safe WR2 in fantasy again this week.
WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 7: @Det.): The Saints might be without Jimmy Graham this week, and the Lions have a ferocious pass rush that dropped Teddy Bridgewater 8 times last week. Look for the Saints to get Cooks involved early in the short passing game to counter Detroit’s pressure. He might even see a couple rushing attempts. He’s a solid WR2 option in PPR leagues and WR3 in standard ones.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 7: vs. Min.): Don’t be scared away by last week’s rough game from Sammy. He was matched up against Darrelle Revis all day. He won’t face anyone that imposing against the Vikings, and he saw at least 8 targets in each of the previous 4 games before last week. I’d expect close to double-digit targets again, and I like his chances to turn in a strong fantasy day. Orton certainly makes him a better fantasy play than E.J. ever did.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): Carr finally escapes the “Rookies to Sit” category. With Tony Sparano in charge as the interim head coach, the playbook was opened up and Carr was unleashed a bit against SD. The Arizona matchup is an interesting one. The Cards bring pressure a high percentage of the time and trust their corners to win one-on-one matchups. Carr struggled against pressure in college, but he’s responded well to it at this level. There will be a chance for Carr to have a nice day with crafty James Jones and physical freak Andre Holmes finding ways to get open. I like Carr as a low-end QB2 with upside for more.
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Like Carr, Bortles is fodder for 2 QB leagues. I like Carr better this week. Bortles has the better match-up, and he’s built a great rapport with Cecil Shorts and Allen Robinson, but the Jags’ lack of a running game will keep Bortles no more than a low-end QB2.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 7: @Was.): Sankey has been absolutely maddening to anyone who owns him. Coach Ken Whisenhunt claims that “nerves” factored into Sankey’s slow start last week against Jacksonville, but Whiz still sprinkled in too much Dexter McCluster and Leon Washington for Sankey’s owners to feel good starting him against the #5 defense vs. fantasy RBs. There’s plenty of upside for Bishop, but plenty of risk too.
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Crowell was very impressive as a runner last week against Pittsburgh, putting up 77 yards and a TD on just 11 carries. He would be breathing down Ben Tate’s neck for the starting gig right now if not for 2 fumbles, but he’s still going to get his work and could torch the Jaguars’ terrible defense. He could end up with just 20-30 yards, or he could blow up. The talent is real.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 7: @Ind.): The Colts allow the 7th most fantasy points to opposing RBs, and the Bengals should continue to lean on their running backs with A.J. Green likely out another week. There is a risk of Cincy falling behind in this one and having to throw more than they’d like, but Hill should see 10-15 touches, which normally makes him a decent bet for a TD.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 7: @Buf.): McKinnon finally has leaped over Matt Asiata on the depth chart, out-touching the plodding Asiata 18-3 against Detroit. This week, he faces off against the best defense in the league against opposing RBs. The volume should be there for him to be an OK flex option though. The Vikes should look to run as much as possible to keep Bridgewater upright after he was sacked 8 times last week.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): Adams role continued to increase last week. He remains a boom or bust WR3 option, but he’s good a decent chance to boom this week against the lackluster Panthers’ secondary. Carolina has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 7: @Dal.): The stats would say that this isn't a good match-up for Beckham, but we can just throw out the stats when the Cowboys and Giants get together. I feel like this game will be a bit tougher for the Cowboys, and I actually really like Beckham as a decent flex option this week.
WR Allen Robinson, JAX (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): I like Robinson this week in PPR leagues. He’s been surprisingly steady since week 2, averaging 5.8 catches and 62.2 yards per game over his past 5 with at least 4 catches and 6 targets in each game. I like his chances to at least get to his averages in a game that will likely have the Jaguars throwing.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 7: @Chi.): Landry is seemingly gaining more and more trust from Ryan Tannehill each week, and he found the end zone for the first time last week. His efficiency has been impressive, with 18 catches on 25 targets in the past 4 games. This game has shootout potential, so Landry could approach the 6-75-1 line he registered last week and should be a reasonable WR3 option in PPR leagues.
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 7: @NE): Despite his breakout last week, Amaro is more of a 2TE league option. The Patriots do a good job of taking away a team’s best options. I still think Geno peppers him with targets again, making him a guy you could roll the dice on in 12-team PPR leagues, but he’s a risky play this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 7: @Buf.): I believe in Teddy’s talent, but this matchup is daunting. The Vikings haven’t thrown a passing TD in the past 4 weeks and the Bills haven’t allowed a rushing TD all season. I’d like to believe that Bridgewater will find a way to throw his first career TD pass this week, but I can’t say with certainty he will. He’s coming off a 3 interception, 8 sack game against Detroit and gets another good pass rush this week.
RB Storm Johnson, JAX (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Storm may very well have a decent game with a good matchup against the Browns, but I’m giving up on the Jags’ running game until they show me more. The problem is the offensive line, and I don’t trust anyone running behind it. I’d sit Storm.
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 7: @Jax.): He’s now 3rd in the pecking order in the Browns’ backfield and Crowell is separating himself. He needs an injury ahead of him to even be rostered in redraft leagues right now. He just won’t get enough work to play.
RB Darrin Reaves, CAR (Wk. 7: @GB): Even with the other Panthers’ runners out, Reaves hasn't been much of a factor. The Panthers have found something with Cam running the ball again, and Jonathan Stewart might be back this week. I wouldn't consider Reaves this week.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 7: @Den.): The way to beat Denver is to pound the ball on the ground and keep it away from Peyton Manning, but Gore will continue to see the lion’s share of the work. The Broncos don’t often play from behind, so it’s hard to bank on the game flow getting Hyde involved. Keep him on the pine this week.
RB Juwan Thompson, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. SF): Hillman did plenty last week to earn the top spot in the Denver backfield while Montee Ball is out and possibly beyond. Against a plus defense like San Francisco’s, there just won’t be enough fantasy points to go around for Juwan Thompson.
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 7: vs. Sea.): Mason had a couple of nice plays in his NFL debut on Monday night, but you know better than to play a running back who faces the Seahawks when they’re coming off a loss. The Seahawks will be playing focused and angry football, and Mason isn’t even the starter.
WRs Allen Hurns & Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Hurns’s targets are falling off with Cecil Shorts back, and Lee is still working to crack into the rotation at wide receiver. Both guys should be out of your fantasy lineup this week.
TE Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 7: vs. NO): Ebron’s comparison coming into the draft was Jimmy Graham. Who knows better how to defend that type of player than the Saints? They've allowed a league-low 4 points per game to opposing tight ends, and Ebron has already been under-performing with Calvin out. Don’t start Ebron this week.
Deep League Sleepers:
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN (Wk. 7: @Was.): Jake Locker’s status is in doubt yet again this week, and “Checkdown” Charlie Whitehurst hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire in his stead. If Mettenberger gets the start, he’s a sneaky good QB2 option going against the worst QB defense in the league. Keep an eye on the situation if you have an issue at QB2.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Zo has become a forgotten man in Baltimore as Bernard Pierce has returned to the mix, but I think he gets more involved this week and is a sneaky flex play against the awful Falcons’ defense. Forsett is still the top option, but I certainly like Taliaferro over Pierce this week. The Falcons allow 27.5 RB fantasy points per game.
RB James White, NE (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): The Jets run defense has had some issues the past two weeks after being dominant prior to that, and the Pats’ backfield is in flux with Stevan Ridley done for the year. Brandon Bolden is the favorite to take over Ridley’s role, but White and preseason standout Jonas Gray could factor in as well. White was active for the first time last week, and was always a good pass blocker at Wisconsin, which is important at this level. It’s hard to trust White this week, but he’s a nice stash option in deeper leagues.
RB Damian Williams, MIA (Wk. 7: @Chi.): It’s still not clear who the number 2 runner is in Miami with Knowshon done for the year. Williams beat out Daniel Thomas for a roster spot in the preseason, but Thomas ran ahead of him in week 4 against Oakland. Williams could be worth a stash in deep leagues if he runs ahead of Thomas this week.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 7: @Oak.): Brown has been forgotten by most since his 2 TD game against the 49ers, but with Carson Palmer back, Brown should be a sneaky flex play against the Raiders in deeper leagues. Palmer re-established Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald last week, taking the focus off Brown again (even he had 4 catches for 43 in week 6), and I like his chances of finding the end zone this week. There’s a lot of bust risk, but Brown has shown himself to be a play-maker.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you find fantasy victory in week 7. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.