Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

176 Pass Attempts

Dak Prescott's interception-free pass attempt streak ended on his 177th attempt on Sunday in Green Bay. Earlier in the game, he broke the previous record of 162, which was held by Tom Brady. The streak was impressive, but the 30-16 victory on the road could be the thing that keeps Tony Romo off the field, once he's back to 100% health. Prescott has 10 TDs total this season, and had only 1 turnover going into Week 6. As long as he and Zeke keep winning, I don't see why you change things.

16-2

Andy Reid's teams are now 16-2 when coming off of a bye week. This is a remarkable stat, and one that leaves me regretful that I didn't change my picks after being reminded of it on Sunday morning. The Chiefs thoroughly dominated the Raiders, particularly in the 2nd half when they gave up zero points. The return of Jamaal Charles was marked by an early touchdown, but then gave way again to Spencer Ware. Ware is averaging 129 yards from scrimmage per game and was given 24 carries in the game where Charles was supposed to have the training wheels taken off. It'll be interesting to see what happens going forward.

200+ Yards

Up until Week 6, only guys named Jones were putting up games over 200 yards. This week, we add two more to that list. Jay Ajayi and Odell Beckham Jr. both went over 200 yards, putting up over 30 points each while helping their teams to big wins. Ajayi is a surprise, but a welcome one - it's nice to see some fantasy life in Miami after all. Look for him to be the hottest waiver pickup this week. Odell, on the other hand, is having fun again. Hopefully things stay fun for him, and the future Mrs. Kicking Net Beckham.

130+ Rush Yards

Ezekiel Elliott has 130+ yards in 4 straight weeks, the first rookie to ever reach that mark. Elliott is living up to the high expectations he had in Dallas, behind a very strong offensive line and fellow rookie Dak Prescott (see above). Elliott leads the league in rushing yards with 703, a wide margin over second place. At 5.13 yards per carry, he's incredibly efficient. He's got the second-most fantasy points in standard leagues - it's nice to see something live up to the hype.

61 Games

Including playoffs, the Colts went 61 straight games between having a 100-yard rusher. On Sunday night in Houston, Frank Gore broke that streak...then lost his 100 yards. Then, the Colts gave up the lead, assuring that the game would go to OT and give Gore a chance to go back over 100 yards. A seven-yard run took care of this, but the Colts punted on that drive and the Texans kicked a field goal to steal the game from the Colts, who had led since the first quarter. This morning, I suspect that Chuck Pagano will find himself on the hot seat.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The long slog through the regular season is finally almost over. For most fantasy leagues, week 13 is the finale. You should know where you stand in your playoff pecking order. If your playoff spot or a bye week is on the line, there is some extra weight on the lineup decisions you make this week. Do you play it safe, or swing for the fences with a boom-or-bust option? At the end of the day, you have to make the final call on that, but I can at least offer a little help figuring out what to do with your rookies. A lot of rookies have been playing larger roles as the season has gone on, and it's likely that a rookie will play a part in determining the outcome of your week 13 matchup. Let's dive in and talk about what to expect this week...

Rookies to Start:

RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 13: @Min.): Zeke is just too good to sit regardless of matchup, and this matchup isn't all that daunting. The Vikings have allowed 95+ rushing yards to opposing backs in 5 of their past 6 games, allowing 4.7 yards per carry to RBs over that stretch. They also rank a middling 16th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat, which measures efficiency. Elliott remains a locked-in RB1 this week.

RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Howard demonstrated last weekend that he's still able to produce despite having Matt Barkley under center. The 49ers appeared to show improvement vs. the run on Sunday as they were able to slow down Jay Ajayi a bit, but they've still allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs and rank 30th in run defense DVOA. Howard has RB1 upside this week.

WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 13: vs. Det.): Thomas got back on track in a big way in week 12 with over 100 yards and 2 scores, and the Saints are at home again this week. The Lions secondary is hardly a group to be afraid of, and no defense has been able to slow down Brees and company in Nola. The squeaky wheel should get the grease this week, so Brandin Cooks is likely to see some extra targets after his goose egg last weekend, but Thomas is a safe WR3. He's shown a very respectable floor with at least 4 catches and 40 yards in all 11 games this season, and he leads the team in targets, catches, receiving yards and TD grabs.

WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 13: @Pit.): As I just mentioned above, the squeaky wheel gets the grease. Shep wasn't targeted once last weekend after seeing at least 6 targets in each of the previous 9 games. Eli Manning apologized to Shepard this week, and I'd expect an overcorrection this weekend. The Steelers are nothing to sneeze at as a defense, allowing the 4th-fewest WR points per game on the year. Still, I expect Shep to see at least 8 targets this week and see him as a solid WR3, especially in PPR formats.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 13: @Min.): Prescott has been rock solid all year, but this week should be a real test. The Vikings rank 4th in pass defense DVOA, and have allowed fewer than 17 fantasy points to the opposing QB in all but one game (all point totals are in ESPN standard scoring). Dak, meanwhile, has scored at least 17 in 10 straight games. There is a chance for a decent day since Minnesota has allowed 2 passing TDs 3 times in the past 4 games, but I think this is the first time since week 1 that Prescott comes up short of the 17-point threshold. He's a borderline QB1 in 12-team leagues.

RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 13: @Jax.): I'd lean toward starting Booker this week, but his recent track record has been less than stellar. He has seen 24 carries in each of the past 2 games, the Jaguars rank 23rd in run defense DVOA, and Denver is a 5-point road favorite. The matchup and game script should work in Booker's favor, which gives him a great chance to finish as at least a low-end RB2.

RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Mia.): Dixon continues to see his share of the snaps and touches rise each week, and he's scored 7 fantasy points in 2 of the past 3 games. Miami ranks 19th in run defense DVOA and has allowed between 10 and 20 fantasy points to opposing RBs each week. Terrance West is more likely to get the goal line opportunities, but Dixon should get enough volume to finish right around where he did last week. He's a flex option with a decent floor, but a low ceiling.

RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Smallwood wound up being a huge let down last week with Ryan Mathews out, but it wasn't entirely his fault. The Packers dominated time of possession, and the Eagles didn't have a single offensive snap when they were tied or leading. Smallwood and Sproles combined for just 12 carries with the negative game script (9 for Smallwood). The Bengals without AJ Green and Gio Bernard are much less likely to be playing from ahead, and Cincy allows the 12th-most RB points per game. Mathews should be out again, so I would expect Smallwood to lead the backfield in touches and to have more success than he did last week.

WR Tyreek Hill, KC (Wk. 13: @Atl.): Hill put on a show on Sunday night, doing something not seen since Gale Sayers (rushing, receiving, and punt return TD all in one game). He's still a touchdown-dependent player in standard leagues since he averages under 10 yards per catch and is used extensively in the short passing game. Luckily for Hill, the Falcons rank 26th in pass defense DVOA on short throws, and he should see plenty of targets once again with Maclin's status still up in the air. He's a solid WR3 in PPR leagues, and closer to the WR3/4 borderline in standard formats.

WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Boyd has shown a safe PPR floor over the past two weeks with AJ Green and Gio Bernard being out, as he was targeted 8 & 9 times in weeks 11 & 12. The offense as a whole is less effective without AJ and Gio, so there isn't as much TD upside for Boyd, but he's still an intriguing WR3 option in PPR and standard leagues. The Eagles rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA, but their worst 4 games of the season in terms of WR points allowed have all been in the past 5 games.

WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 13: @GB): Well, it looks like Fuller is finally recovered from the leg injury that has plagued him as he put up a 4-60 line last week and is slated to return punts in place of the injured Tyler Ervin this week. The Packers' secondary had been getting shredded weekly before looking better on Monday night. I'm not convinced that their struggles are behind them...they've allowed the 3rd-most WR fantasy points per game. Fuller is back to being an upside WR3 option this week. He's still a bit of a boom-or-bust play, but the possibility of a boom is back.

TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 13: vs. TB): Henry played more snaps that Antonio Gates in week 12, and this week he faces a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed over 65 receiving yards to opposing TEs in 4 of the past 5 games. Henry is always a TD threat, and the yardage upside this week makes him a passable streamer in 12-team leagues if you're missing Gronk or Delanie.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Wentz has been pretty consistently bad over the past 7 games, and the Bengals have allowed just 12 points per game to the opposing QBs in their 3 games since the bye. Wentz is just the QB23 on the year, and the Bengals are hardly an enticing matchup. Carson is a low-end QB2 at best this week.

QB Jared Goff, LA (Wk. 13: @NE): Goff has some upside this week against a Patriots defense that ranks just 28th in pass defense DVOA, but he's best left on the pine in most leagues. He's played just one good half of football in his first 2 starts, and Bill Belichick will be licking his chops to game plan for the rookie. I don't like his chances of making good on his upside.

RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 13: @Ari.): Kelley proved on Thanksgiving that he isn't going to overcome bad matchups unless he scores touchdowns, and he has another bad matchup this week. The Cardinals haven't been great against running backs overall this year, but they have been shutting them down at home. No opposing team's RBs have tallied more than 7 fantasy points in Arizona since the Patriots in week 1. You can do better than Kelley this week.

RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Perkins has seen an increase in playing time over the past few weeks, but he's still totaled just 12 fantasy points in the past 4 games. The Steelers have allowed 7 fantasy points or fewer to the opposing RBs in 3 of their 4 games since the bye with the exception being the week they got shredded by Ezekiel Elliott. If the Giants get anything going with their backs this week, it'll likely be from Rashad Jennings.

RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 13: @NO): There is some touchdown upside for Dwayne this week against the Saints, but the Lions have proven there is no matchup too soft for the Lions' run game to fail against. The Saints are actually playing improved defense of late, allowing 10 fantasy points or fewer to opposing RBs in each of the past 3 games. Washington is no more than a TD dart throw.

WR Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): The re-emergence of Quincy Enunwa last weekend limited Robby to just 2 targets against New England. There's no way to know if that number will go back up this week. You can't trust Anderson this week despite a plus matchup with the Colts.

TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. KC): The Chiefs aren't quite as brutal a TE matchup as the Cardinals were for Hooper last week, but they're pretty close. KC has allowed just 2 TE scores, and have only allowed 60+ yards to the opposing tight ends 3 times. They've only allowed 60 yards AND a touchdown once. There are better streaming options available.

Rookies on Bye: QB Cody Kessler, CLE, RB Derrick Henry, TEN, WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN, WR Corey Coleman, CLE, WR Ricardo Louis, CLE, TE Seth DeValve, CLE

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): Richard has finally emerged as the clear RB2 in Oakland as DeAndre Washington was a healthy scratch against the Panthers, and the Buffalo Bills rank just 25th in run defense DVOA. It seems as though Latavius Murray has established himself as the workhorse for Oakland again, but Richard has averaged 7.5 touches per game over the past 4 games. While that type of volume doesn't lend itself to fantasy starter status, Richard has shown the big-play ability to be an interesting DFS tournament punt play. He's also a guy you should consider stashing as a handcuff if you own Murray.

WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 13: vs. LA): People might be expecting Mitchell to come back to earth a bit this week after scoring 3 TDs in the past two games with Chris Hogan and then Rob Gronkowski out. I think he extends the success another week. While it sounds like Gronk has a good shot of playing this week, I think it will be at far less than 100 percent and mostly as a decoy, and it's clear that Mitchell has earned Tom Brady's trust. Mitchell seems a natural fit for the role the Brandon LaFell played the last two years, and LaFell left a ton of big plays on the field last year because of drops. Mitchell isn't doing that so far. It helps Mitchell's outlook that the Rams have really struggled to defend WRs away from home, allowing 30+ fantasy points to the position in 4 of their 6 road games. I'm in on Mitchell this week as a boom-or-bust WR3.

WR Leonte Carroo, MIA (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Carroo's outlook really depends on the status of DeVante Parker this week. Parker left with a back injury on Sunday, and Carroo scored a touchdown on his only target as the fill-in. If Parker is out this week, I'd expect Carroo to assume his role in the offense, and that role has been bigger of late. DeVante has led the Dolphins in targets over the past 3 weeks, and averaged 82 receiving yards per game in that span. If he sits, Carroo becomes a really intriguing cheap option for DFS tournaments and a streaming possibility for the deepest of leagues.

WR Daniel Braverman, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. SF): I only list Braverman here as a gut call for DFS tournaments, or as a stash in deep PPR leagues. The Bears are desperate to find anyone who can catch the ball after suffering through a miserable 10 drops last Sunday, including 2 on the final series that each could have led to a Bears' win. Braverman caught 108 balls at Western Michigan last season, and showed sure hands in the preseason when given opportunities. He could play a prominent role as a slot receiver immediately, and Matt Barkley showed last weekend that he can actually throw it a bit. The weather conditions will be sloppy in Chicago (about 40 degrees and rainy), so the short passing game will be key, and that's an area where Braverman excels. I like his chances of recording 5+ catches.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps with your all-important lineup decisions and helps you extend your season into the playoffs. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports throughout the week to make sure you don't start anyone who's out or winds up benched because the starter is back. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.

Week 14 was the start of the fantasy football playoffs and some big things went down before, during and after all the games. In case you haven’t yet, make sure you check out all the crazy stats that Le’Veon Bell racked up on Sunday.

• -          Two NFC South receivers sat out. Sitting out isn’t usually the end of the world because you have a chance to get someone else in the lineup, but missing Julio Jones (turf toe) and Michael Thomas (foot) definitely had an effect on some team’s fantasy playoff outcome. Both guys are questionable to start in Week 15, so keep your eyes peeled to those injury reports.

• -          Two top flight RB’s went down very early in their game. Matt Forte exited the game early with a knee injury, paving the way for Bilal Powell to have a monster game that by all rights should have gone to Forte owners, but hey, “them’s the breaks”! Melvin Gordon was carted off the field with a hip injury and is currently anywhere between being just fine and inches from his deathbed. I suspect he’s more week-to-week and will not be a good bet for Week 15’s lineups. Forte plays on Saturday night, so at least you have plenty of time to plan for alternates if he does not play.

• -          Jeff Fisher was fired as the Rams head coach, just a few games shy of breaking the all-time loss record for head coaches. The Rams were abysmal this season, handing the 49ers their only victory, they left their #1 overall pick on the bench far longer than anyone thought reasonable and they just can’t seem to figure out this thing called “offense”.

• -          Ryan Tannehill exited Sunday’s game with a suspected ACL tear. While he seems to have escaped a full tear, he will not be playing any more games in the regular season. He’s out of the mix as a QB2 and this is a downgrade for Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker, who now have to catch passes from career-backup Matt Moore. I don’t see much of a change for Jay Ajayi who should have success against the Jets and Bills, provided that Moore is not awful.

• -          Aaron Rodgers hurt his calf on the third play of the game, apparently. He didn’t seem too affected by his injury, if so, because he ripped the Seahawks apart much like in the playoffs two years ago. Unlike two years ago, his team held the lead. Rodgers should be just fine going forward, but I suppose it always something you need to keep an eye on.

• -          Matt Stafford made it 8-4^th quarter comebacks on Sunday, but at the expense of his middle finger on his throwing hand. This is an injury he’s expected to play through, but just take note that this is similar to Derek Carr’s injury, and he hasn’t been the same since.

• -          Darren Sproles and fellow backfield mate Wendell Smallwood both exited the game on Sunday due to injury. Smallwood wound up going to the IR for the remainder of the season, but is a hold in dynasty formats. Sproles is in the concussion protocol and needs to get cleared. If he sits on Sunday, then Ryan Mathews is worth a look.

• -          Teams need to start focusing on their extra points more, particularly not getting them returned for 2. Arizona arguably lost the game on Sunday due to not making a single extra point in two attempts, one of them being returned the other way for 2 points. That’s a 4 point swing in a game where they lost by 3. In overtime. Yep, it’s been that kind of season for the Cardinals.

• -          Bryce Petty started and won a game! Granted it was against the hapless 49ers, but this is yet another young QB getting starts and wins before #1 overall pick Jared Goff can get his first. Goff has to go to Seattle this Thursday night, so I really think that RG3 has a better chance at a win this week.

• -          It might have been NBC trying to stir the pot, but the image of Ezekiel Elliott standing next to Tony Romo on the sidelines in the 4^th quarter of the Cowboys game really sticks with me. You know those guys were thinking “Why the hell am I not out there?” I have to say, I agree with them. Despite an 11-2 record, the Cowboys have no business thinking they will win games in December and January when they can only complete 1 out of 9 passes to Dez Bryant and are relying on Cole Beasley and Lance Dunbar for late game heroics. I’m all for keeping Dak Prescott in at QB, but you must keep his weapons around him (and keep them finely honed, not rusty). Of course, now it also seems like he can’t beat the Giants.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully, your fantasy teams still have a pulse after the carnage that week 14 brought…Melvin Gordon, Donte Moncrief, Matt Forte and Jordan Reed were slowed by injuries and likely killed you if you played them. There was also a massive list of horrible fantasy performances from key players. QBs Dak Prescott, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Big Ben and Derek Carr all put up less than 5 fantasy points (all scores in ESPN standard scoring). RBs Spencer Ware, Thomas Rawls, Jay Ajayi, Mark Ingram, Devontae Booker and Devonta Freeman all scored 5 or less. At WR, the list under 5 points included Dez Bryant, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon Marshall, Amari Cooper and Larry Fitzgerald. Not even TEs were immune to the disappointment with Delanie Walker, Jimmy Graham and Ladarius Green all scoring 3 points or less. Sorry for the painful walk down memory lane if you had any of those players, but hopefully you were able to survive and advance. The decisions this week are just as important if you’re still kicking, so let’s take a look at which rookies are safe to trot out there in week 15….

Rookies to Start:

RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): At this point, is there any defense that would scare you away from using Zeke? He’s still got 10+ fantasy points in all 13 games this year and at least 20 carries in 11 of them. The Bucs’ defense has been playing better over the past few weeks but still ranks just 21^st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, which measures efficiency. Fire him up in season-long leagues, and there is no reason to be afraid to use him in DFS either.

RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 15: vs. GB): I’m a little bit nervous about Howard this week after how the first meeting with the Packers went. He had just 7 carries for 22 yards in that game and inexplicably ceded carries to Ka’Deem Carey. Since that game, Howard has put up at least 99 scrimmage yards in each of the 6 that have followed with a minimum of 15 touches in each. With that track record, it’s hard to argue that he isn’t at least an RB2 this week despite a tough matchup. The Packers have rebounded since an awful 4-week stretch (weeks 9-12), allowing just over 11 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs in the past 3. Howard’s high volume makes him a high-floor option, but I wouldn’t expect him to hit his ceiling if the Packers win this one big.

WR Tyreek Hill, KC (Wk. 15: vs. Ten.): The Titans have struggled vs. WRs for much of the year, allowing 29+ points to opposing WRs in 6 of their past 8 games and 13 WR touchdowns in those 8 contests. They’ve also allowed 22+ points in 10 of their 13 games on the year. Hill still received 6 targets last week with Jeremy Maclin back in a game where the Chiefs only threw it 26 times. He’s bound to have a down game at some point, but I don’t think this will be it.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Tampa Bay has held 3 of the past 5 quarterbacks they’ve faced to 10 fantasy points or less and the team is on a 5-game winning streak. Luckily for Dak, all 3 of those games where they limited the QB were played in Tampa. This game will be in Dallas. Prescott is still a little riskier than he was a few weeks ago, but the upside is still there. I have a feeling that Dez Bryant will want to make a statement after embarrassing himself on national TV Sunday night. I like Dak’s chances as posting a bounce-back game and winding up a borderline QB1.

RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. Phi.): The Marc Trestman influence is finally showing in the Ravens’ offense now that they actually have a receiving back playing lots of snaps. Running backs under Trestman have a history of getting a lot of passing targets, and over the past 6 weeks, only the Arizona Cardinals have targeted the RBs more than Baltimore. Almost all of those targets are going to Dixon. Terrance West isn’t going to completely go away, especially at the goal line, but Dixon should be a solid flex option this week in PPR leagues. Philly ranks 12^th in run defense DVOA and 21^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. 5+ catches are likely for Dixon this week.

RB Kenneth Farrow, SD (Wk. 15: vs. Oak.): Melvin Gordon appears to be out this week, and it was Farrow who stepped in after his injury last Sunday with 78 scrimmage yards on 22 touches. It looks like he’ll be used similarly to Gordon as long as Melvin is out. Ronnie Hillman is on the roster and should be active this week, but I wouldn’t expect him to take too big of a chunk from Farrow’s workload. The Raiders have allowed 14+ fantasy points to opposing RBs in 10 of their 13 games, and they have allowed the 3rd-most scrimmage yards to the position as well. Farrow should be flex-worthy in a plus matchup.

RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Car.): Kelley has proven that volume will keep him on the RB2 radar with at least 14 carries in every game since becoming the starter, but the TDs are where he’s finding his value. If he doesn’t score, you typically don’t end up with a great outing. Carolina is a tough matchup for Kelley. They’ve allowed just 7 running back scores on the year, and the 7^th-fewest RB fantasy points per game, but that defense has shown cracks of late. 3 of their worst 4 games of the year against running backs were in the past 4 weeks. There is some hope for Kelley.

WR Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): Anderson has been surprisingly consistent this year for a guy who came into the year fighting for the WR4 spot on his own team. He hasn’t put up a goose egg since week 2, and he’s shown to have an OK floor with over 30 receiving yards in 7 straight games. Now that Bryce Petty has become the starter, he’s taken a huge step forward into being a legitimate WR3 option. He’s seen 23 targets in the past 2 weeks and turned in double-digit points in each game. The volume should be solid again this week, and that puts Robby right on the WR3/WR4 borderline. The Dolphins do allow the 13^th-most WR points per game.

WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 15: @Ari.): Thomas isn’t an auto-start this week after being a surprise scratch last weekend. He’s been limited in practice but does look likely to play. The Cardinals have been vulnerable lately with 27 fantasy points per game allowed to WRs in their past 4, but there is a chance that Patrick Peterson follows Thomas around a bit. You may have to read the tea leaves a bit on this one, but if it looks like Thomas is a full go, he should be an upside WR3 option.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 15: @Bal.): Since their bye 6 weeks ago, the Ravens have only struggled with 2 QBs: Tom Brady and Dak Prescott. They allowed just 1 TD pass each to the other 4 signal callers they faced in that stretch. Wentz has topped 12 fantasy points just twice in the past 9 games since Lane Johnson was suspended. He’s thrown for over 300 yards in his past two games, but he also has multiple turnovers in 3 of the past 4. He should be able to reach double-digits again in this game, but I would be surprised if he gets beyond the 10-13-point range.

QB Jared Goff, LA (Wk. 15: @Sea.): The Seahawks pass defense has been vulnerable of late, with 8 TD passes allowed in their past 4 games, but nothing we’ve seen from Goff and the Rams gives me a reason to believe they’ll continue the Seahawks’ struggles. The Rams will have a short week with a new interim head coach. I’m not sure how much of the game plan he can really mix up in a 4-day week. Goff would be lucky to score 10+ points.

RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Det.): Perkins’s production has improved lately, mostly due to an increased workload, but he still averaged only 3 yards per carry last week and saw just one target in the passing game. The Lions have allowed just 68 RB rush yards per game over the past 5 games, and just 2 TDs in that stretch. Perkins has yet to rush for 50 yards in a game, and there just isn’t enough upside to run him out there this week.

RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. NE): The Patriots have struggled at times vs. the pass, but have been strong against the run, and Booker lost significant snaps to a guy signed off the street last week. He’s been inefficient for weeks now and got just 5 touches against the Titans compared to 9 for Justin Forsett. That’s not a promising split. The Patriots do give up a ton of catches to RBs, but I would expect it to be Forsett taking advantage, not Booker. He’s too risky to roll with this week.

RB Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 15: @SD): There is some upside for Richard as there has been since he took number 2 duties from DeAndre Washington, and he does get a plus matchup. The Chargers have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points per game to RBs and are tied for 2^nd in RB touchdowns allowed with 17, but Richard is just too much of a roll of the dice to try out in the playoffs.

WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Det.): If you trot Shepard out there, he’s no more than a risky TD-dependent WR3 this week. He hasn’t cleared 50 receiving yards in a game since week 3, so it’ll take a touchdown for him to be worth your while, and the Lions have allowed just 3 WR scores in the past 7 games. I don’t like Shepard’s chances of finding paydirt this week.

WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 15: @Den.): You have to steer clear of any WRs facing the Broncos. Denver has allowed fewer than 10 WR receptions total in 8 of their 13 games, and fewer than 100 receiving yards to WRs in 7 of 13. Julian Edelman alone has at least 7 catches in 5 straight games. There just isn’t going to be enough volume to go around for Mitchell to be viable without a TD, and the Broncos have allowed just 3 scores to wide receivers aside from their game with the Saints. You can’t give Mitchell the benefit of the doubt in the toughest possible matchup.

WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 15: vs. Jax.): The Jaguars have allowed 12 WR fantasy points per game in their past 6 games, and the Texans’ offense has been abysmal through the air. Fuller’s volatile production isn’t something I want to count on this week.

WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 15: @KC): I expected Sharpe to have a down game vs. the Broncos, but zero catches on one target?! He’s got just 3 games all year with over 60 receiving yards, and just 11 yards in his last 2 games combined. There’s no way you can trust Tajae this week.

TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 15: vs. Oak.): The Chargers TE group had a strong showing against the Raiders the last time they faced them, combining for a 7-104-2 line, but the Raiders have been fantastic against the position since. They’ve given up just 4 TDs to tight ends all year, and zero in the past 5 games. As Antonio Gates has gotten healthy again, Henry has become a TD dart throw each week, and the odds of finding the end zone are not in his favor against Oakland.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 15: @NYG): Most of this week’s sleepers are going to be DFS punt options for GPP tournaments. Most of these guys are just too risky to trust for season long leagues. Washington might be the exception to that on this list. He had his best outing of the year last week with 16 carries for 64 yards and 1 catch for 10. He did that with Theo Riddick sidelined. Riddick isn’t practicing yet as of Wednesday, so there is a chance he misses again. If he does, that pushes Washington up to ‘Borderline’ status since 3^rd-stringer Zach Zenner is still in the concussion protocol. The matchup is a tough one with the G-Men ranking 5^th in run-defense DVOA, but Washington could be in for a big workload. If Riddick is out, he’ll be a fantastic DFS play at his current $3,500 salary on Draft Kings.

RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 15: @KC): The Chiefs have faced the 6th-most rushing attempts in the league including 29 per game in the past 4 contests, and DeMarco Murray is averaging 18 carries per game in his past 5. Some quick math tells me that I like Derrick Henry’s chances at seeing 10+ carries, and the Chiefs rank 19^th in run defense DVOA. Henry is priced a little higher than you’d like for a punt play at $5,100 in Draft Kings, but the upside is there for a nice day.

WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 15: @Buf.): Coleman has failed to gain more than 41 yards in any of the 5 games he’s played since returning from a broken hand, but he’s had 30 targets in the past 3. The lack of production makes him impossible to trust in the fantasy playoffs this week, but he could certainly prove to be worth his $4,100 price in Draft Kings with that kind of volume. Buffalo ranks 19^th in pass defense DVOA, and RG3 is always looking for the deep ball.

WR Leonte Carroo, MIA (Wk. 15: @NYJ): Carroo had played just 24 offensive snaps in the past 4 weeks, so it is a bit of a stretch to consider him, but he should see some targets on the snaps he does play this week with Matt Moore at quarterback. The two have been practicing together on the 2^nd team all season, and we’ve seen what that kind of connection has done for Robby Anderson with Bryce Petty at the helm. All Carroo needs is to get on the field and he should have one of his best days of the season. The Jets rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, and Carroo costs the minimum in Draft Kings.

TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 15: vs. SF): This is mostly a hunch. San Francisco has actually been surprisingly decent vs. tight ends, but I feel like Hooper is due in a game that Atlanta should dominate. He’s been a solid deep threat with 4 catches of 25 yards or more among his 18 grabs on the year, and he’s a decent TD dart throw this week that costs the minimum in Draft Kings.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you advance to your league title game (or semifinal if your title game is week 17). Watch the injury reports closely this week and make sure you don’t start an injury replacement if the starter is playing, or play the starter if he’s not. Feel free to hit me up on twitter with any specific questions or to yell at me about what’s written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.