Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully, you survived the injury carnage in week 2 and managed to dodge some underperforming studs to come up with a W. I feel like week 2 is an unpredictable one every year, and this year was no different with several unexpected game outcomes, and several unexpected faces atop the fantasy scoring leaders. Week 2 was definitely a good one for the rookie crop, as the high real-life draft picks really asserted themselves in fantasy.
At running back, first round rookie Ezekiel Elliott managed to top 80 yards and score a TD. If you were disappointed with that week 2 output, keep in mind that in standard leagues he out-produced all but one RB with a top-10 ADP on any of the top fantasy league sites (David Johnson was that one). Not to be outdone by the top running back, the top WRs had a big week as well. Every WR not named Laquon Treadwell that was drafted in the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft outscored each of Allen Robinson, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, TY Hilton, and Sammy Watkins in standard scoring in week 2. That list of rookies is: Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Corey Coleman, Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd. And on to the QB position...although Jared Goff and Paxton Lynch aren't playing yet, number 2 overall pick Carson Wentz lead his Eagles to another victory and outscored top QBs Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Eli Manning along the way this week.
It was a so-so week for the less-heralded rookies. Dak Prescott had another reasonable outing, as did Derrick Henry and Devontae Booker, despite not really putting up starting-caliber stat lines. Tajae Sharpe came back to earth a bit, as did Raiders' back Jalen Richard as DeAndre Washington asserted himself. Kenyan Drake and Dwayne Washington each found the end zone, and Austin Hooper used a 44-yard catch to help himself top 80 yards for the week. That's enough of a look at last week though...let's dig into the week 3 matchups:
Rookies to Start:
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Don't let the fumbles last week scare you. Zeke's workload isn't going anywhere, and he will eventually hit his stride. The Bears have looked improved against the run this year, but they are far from a shutdown run defense and will play without Danny Trevathan, Lamarr Houston and Eddie Goldman this week. Elliott has a great chance to turn in a top-10 RB performance this week, and should be in the lineup.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 3: @NE): Fuller hasn't given us a reason to not play him yet. He topped 100 yards for the 2nd straight game in week 2, and this week gets a defense that has ranked 28th in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA stat through the first 2 games, and have allowed 385 total receiving yards to WR1s & 2s in those games. I'd feel confident firing up Fuller again this week.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 3: vs. Was.): Shepard showed what he's capable of in week 2 with a line of 8-117 on 8 targets. Washington has ranked 20th so far in pass DVOA, and Shepard plays the majority of his snaps in the slot, which means he should avoid both Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland. ESPN beat writers have reported that Norman will follow Odell in this one. Shepard should have every opportunity to follow up last week's gem with another nice day. He should be a decent WR3 option once again.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. Oak.): This should be a great spot for a nice game from Sharpe. The Raiders rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, and have allowed 133 yards per game to the opposing WR1s. The two they faced were Brandin Cooks and Julio Jones, and while Tajae isn't nearly on that level, he should still find success in this one. He should finish as a solid WR3 in PPR leagues and more of a fringe WR3 in standard leagues.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 3: vs. Pit.): This should be Wentz's first loss of the year, but it doesn't mean he can't have a productive day. Pittsburgh has been impressive so far, allowing just 1 passing TD vs. 2 picks in the first two games while playing from comfortably ahead in one of them. They have however given up boatloads of passing yards...347 per game through the first 2 contests. It should be a real test for Carson, but given the poise he's shown, I like his chances of approaching 300 yards and flirting with a top-15 QB day, maybe even exceeding it with a little TD luck. He's a decent QB2 option, but would take a lot of guts to play in most 1-QB leagues.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): The Bears haven't impressed on defense so far, but they haven't given up huge games to QBs. They're just 19th in pass defense DVOA, but they've only allowed 210 yards and 1.5 TDs passing per game to Wentz and Brock Osweiler. It was nice to see Dak forge a connection with Dez Bryant, and I doubt the Bears have anyone who can contain Dez this week, but the conservative gameplan will keep Dak a borderline QB2 for now.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. Oak.): The Raiders are a miserable 28th in run DVOA, and Henry may be closing the gap in playing time with DeMarco Murray. Murray out-snapped Henry 50-21 in week one, but that split was down to 41-31 in week 2. Both backs were effective on the ground against Detroit, and they are likely to continue getting Henry involved. The volume is capped for Henry, so you’re hoping for a TD if you play him, but he should find another 40-50 yards on the ground if he sees a similar snap count this week. With all of the attrition at running back, I’ve heard of worse guys that are actually in some starting lineups.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): I've got a hunch that Thomas will have a strong showing in week 3. New Orleans should get the passing game back on track as they go back home to the Superdome to face a bad Atlanta D, and I like Thomas's chances of finding the end zone. With each failed passing target to Coby Fleener, the Saints become more and more likely to stop targeting him so much and spread those looks to Thomas, Cooks, and Snead. Thomas has shown a nice floor, topping 50 yards in each of the past 2 weeks, and I like his chances of having his best day yet.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 3: @Mia.): Coleman put on a show in week 2 with Josh McCown at the helm, but he’s going to be hard to trust with Cody Kessler under center. The matchup is a good one, with Miami ranking 21st in pass DVOA on throws to the other team’s WR1. His explosive playmaking ability gives him a chance to make something happen, and I wouldn’t fault you for taking a shot on Coleman, but his floor is LOW this week. Proceed with caution. Editor's note: Coleman suffered a broken hand at practice today and, as Rotoworld says, "Coleman needs his hand to catch footballs". Don't expect him in the lineup anytime soon.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Jacoby Brissett, NE (Wk. 3: vs. Hou.): The Texans have allowed the 2nd-fewest QB points through the first 2 weeks (just 7 points per game allowed). They also rank 4th in pass DVOA. While the Pats will do everything they can to come up with a game plan that Brissett can succeed with, I can't imagine it's one that will help him pile up fantasy points in a tough matchup. Playing on a short week, and possibly without Gronk, I'd be hard pressed to predict a top-25 QB performance from Brissett. The Pats should be hoping that Garoppolo manages to give it a go.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 3: @Cin.): Booker worked as the change of pace back to CJ Anderson last week and he did have some success, but the sledding will be tougher in Cincy. The Colts are 31st in run DVOA through two weeks, the game script was positive for Denver, and Booker managed to be just the RB37 in standard scoring. The game script likely won't be as positive this week, and Cincinnati is 18th in run DVOA. It's not great, but it isn't 31st either. Avoid Booker this week.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 3: @GB): With the news that Ameer Abdullah has been placed on IR, Washington’s stock is rising quickly. He and Theo Riddick will split the backfield work going forward, and Washington is likely to field the goal line work. He’s going to have some nice weeks along the way, but I don’t feel confident that this will be one of them. GB has allowed just 81 RB rushing yards on 44 carries in the first two weeks, and they rank first in run DVOA. There’s always a shot at a goal line score, but Washington might need 2 TDs to break double-digit points in this one.
RBs Jalen Richard & DeAndre Washington, OAK (Wk. 3: @Ten.): The Raiders' backfield timeshare is hurting the upside for both of the backups so far. After a huge week one from Jalen Richard, it was Washington who flashed in week 2, putting up 52 yards on just 7 touches. Head coach Jack Del Rio said that all of their backs are going to play, so this situation isn't getting clarity anytime soon. Until one of these two emerges as the clear number 2 back, both will hard to trust in your lineup. They'll have a nice game here or there, but good luck guessing when it happens. The worst part is that it's likely only a matter of time before they start hurting Latavius Murray's output.
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA (Wk. 3: vs. Cle.): Despite Arian Foster being a long shot to play this week, Jay Ajayi being perpetually in the doghouse, and the game script setting up to be very positive for the run game, I still would avoid Drake. Drake saw just 4 touches to Ajayi’s 9 in week 2, and I would expect Damien Williams or Isaiah Pead to see some work as well this week. If there is any Dolphins’ back worth playing this week, it’s Ajayi. Drake may push for double-digit touches, but I wouldn’t feel good with him in my starting lineup.
WR Josh Doctson, WAS (Wk. 3: @NYG): There were some promising signs for Doctson in week 2. He was targeted 5 times, including 3 in the red zone, and he did put up 57 yards on the week. He did only make one catch, and the matchup with the Giants is a tough one. No matter which corner he squares off with, it will be a challenge for Doctson to get going, especially considering he still is playing behind Garcon, D-Jax and Crowder.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): Wide receivers not named Kelvin Benjamin have totaled 10-112-0 against the Broncos in the first two weeks. Denver is quickly proving that they are once again an opponent to avoid playing your WRs against, and Boyd's draw of slot corner Chris Harris Jr. should make things tougher on him. He'll be lucky to approach 50 yards.
WR Leonte Carroo, MIA (Wk. 3: vs. Cle.): With DeVante Parker back in action in week 2, Carroo was relegated to the bench again, playing just 3 offensive snaps. No reason to consider him this week.
TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 3: @NO): Be careful here...don't fall in love with Hooper's week 2 output and think he's going to be a breakout star. He's still clearly behind Jacob Tamme on the depth chart, which puts him behind Julio Jones, Mohammed Sanu, Tamme, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the pecking order for targets. He may eventually have a larger role, but for now, he's best left out of lineups, even in plus matchups.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 3: @Mia.): You're probably laughing as you read this name as a 'sleeper,' and you're probably right to...but the situation could be worse for the rookie. He gets a pretty solid matchup against a team that just gave up 326 yards and 3 TDs to the combination of Jimmy Garropolo and Jacoby Brissett, and he does have some weapons to work with. He's nothing more than a shoot-the-moon DFS tournament play, but he could have a better fantasy day than most expect.
RB Josh Ferguson, IND (Wk. 3: vs. SD): Ferguson saw 5 targets in week 2, catching them all, and with Donte Moncrief out 4-6 weeks, the Colts may look to involve Ferguson more in the passing game in the short term. The opponent this week, the Chargers, did allow 153 RB receiving yards in week one. Ferguson has some sneaky upside as a cheap DFS play or as a flex option in really deep PPR leagues.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 3: @Dal.): If Jeremy Langford continues to struggle with his efficiency, it's just a matter of time before the Bears start giving Howard a bigger share of the workload to see what he can do. Howard had almost as many rushing yards on 3 carries on Monday as Langford had on 11 (22 yards to 28). Howard is more of a stash option than a guy to play this week, but if Langford gets off to a slow start against Dallas, who is 27th in run DVOA so far, Howard may see some extended work in this plus matchup.
RB Kenneth Farrow, SD (Wk. 3: @Ind.): Farrow is only a stash option at this point, but he's a name to know in San Diego. The undrafted rookie is the number 2 back behind Melvin Gordon now with Both Danny Woodhead and Branden Oliver out for the season. Farrow isn't much of a pass catcher, so the Dexter McCluster signing won't affect his role much...he'll be the backup to Gordon for early down work. Farrow ran for 2,000 yards and 26 TDs over his final 2 years at Houston and received Pro Football Focus's 4th-highest overall grade of any RB in the 2016 rookie crop. He's worth a flier in really deep leagues for now.
WR Jalin Marshall, NYJ (Wk. 3: @KC): Jalin Marshall is only on the radar for this week, and only because the rest of the Jets' WRs are dealing with injuries. It looks likely that Eric Decker and Quincy Enunwa will be able to play this week, but Brandon Marshall has been playing coy about his status. If B-Marsh is able to go, forget all about Jalin Marshall for now. If Brandon sits, Marshall could be in play. Enunwa and Decker have split time in the slot for the Jets, so Marshall would likely play on the outside, and Kansas City has struggled with perimeter receivers Will Fuller, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyrell Williams through two weeks. Marshall hauled in 3 passes for 45 yards last week filling in as guys went out hurt, and he could see more action this week. He's a DFS tournament punt play and also an option in deep leagues that include return yards. He's got 160 total return yards through 2 games.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully, it helps with the tough lineup decisions and you either continue a strong start or get things back on the rails this week. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions, or just want to yell at me about any of this and tell me I'm wrong (@Shawn_Foss). With all of the injuries this week, make sure to keep an eye on the status updates on players throughout the week so you know who's in and out. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're starting to get deep enough into the season to have a better idea of who most of these rookies are...at least the ones that have been starting the whole year. Zeke Elliott and Sterling Shepard have been weekly fantasy starters. Will Fuller has been good, but a boom-or-bust proposition, and Tajae Sharpe and Michael Thomas have been weekly borderline producers. Thomas is coming off his best game of the season, and Sharpe his worst, but both have been worthy of flex consideration each week. Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz have proven themselves as capable fantasy QB2s, and even streamer QB1s some weeks, but not all of the rookies have been as lucky. Several others have been biding their time and waiting for their opportunity. Will that opportunity come this week? Let's dive into the week 4 matchups and discuss...
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 4: @SF): With the volume Elliott is getting right now, you can't sit him. He got 30 carries in an easy win against the Bears, and while it was frustrating to see him get vultured at the goal line by Dak, Alf, and Dunbar, that won't happen every week. There should be a correction there this week. I would actually fade Zeke in DFS this week though. The 49ers have some drastic home-road splits going back to last season. The Niners allowed 15.4 fantasy points per game at home to RBs in '15 (ESPN standard scoring), which would have been the 18th-most if they did that over the whole season, but they allowed 27.4 per game on the road. That number was 6 points per game worse than the WORST RB defense in the league. They allowed at least 18 in all 8 road games. That split has carried over to 2016. SF gave up just 4 points to the Rams' backs in week one at Levi's Stadium, and 19 per game in weeks 2 and 3 on the road. This game is in San Francisco, so expectations for Zeke should be tempered a little bit. He's still a safe starter in season-long leagues.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Despite the signing of Joique Bell this week, look for Jordan Howard to be the clear lead back for the Bears. The Lions have allowed just 12 points per game to opposing RBs, but that is mainly because they've kept running backs out of the end zone. They've ranked just 27th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA, which measures defensive efficiency. Howard really increased his value by showing what he could do as a receiver. Many people thought he would not be a factor as a pass catcher after recording just 11 catches last year at Indiana, but he has 6 catches in the past 2 games. The volume he should see combined with the plus matchup should make Howard a low-end RB2 this week.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 4: vs. NO): It was reported this week that Antonio Gates wasn't close to playing last week in Indy, which means there is a good chance he'll miss week 4 as well. If he sits, Henry should be a great option. Most people will only remember that he fumbled away the Chargers' last chance to win that game, but he was having a fantastic day before that happened. The Saints have actually limited tight ends so far believe it or not, but the list they've faced is hardly inspiring (Walford, Tye, Donnell, Tamme). I expect the Chargers to get Henry involved, and think he'll have a great shot at 60+ yards and a possible TD as long as Gates is out. He's a great streaming option if you're still waiting on Zach Ertz or Tyler Eifert.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 4: @SF): This looks like a juicy matchup on paper, but the 49ers home-road splits apply to quarterbacks as well. They allowed 12.9 points per game to QBs at home in '15 (would have been 4th-fewest), and 19.4 on the road (would have been 4th-most). They didn't allow more than 17 points to any QB they faced in San Francisco. Again, the splits have carried over to '16. Case Keenum put up just 2 points in week one. I don't expect Dak to be shut down quite that badly, but I'd think of him more as a mid-level QB2 rather than a QB1 streamer. There is still upside against a bad 49ers team.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 4: @Chi.): Dwayne should definitely see more work this week after Theo Riddick fell flat on his face in his chance at lead back duties. Riddick managed just 9 yards on 10 carries. Washington managed 38 yards on the same number of carries. Head coach Jim Caldwell blamed the o-line for Riddick's struggles, but Washington was clearly the better between-the-tackles runner. The Lions would be wise to give him more of an opportunity. Riddick should maintain his passing-back role. The Bears rank 26th in run defense DVOA, and allow 20 RB points per game. The increased workload against that machup should put Washington squarely on the flex radar. He'll be better in standard leagues than PPR, and Riddick will be the opposite, but Washington will be more likely to hit paydirt.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 4: @Min.): Shepard has been fantastic through the first 3 games, with a TD or 100 yards in each contest, but the Vikings are the best defense the Giants have faced yet...especially with Xavier Rhodes back in action. Expectations for this week should be a little lower with Shepard. On the plus side, Vikings' slot corner Captain Munnerlyn did struggle to contain Ted Ginn and Corey Brown in week 3, allowing 6 catches for 87 yards on 7 targets thrown his way. Shepard is a borderline WR3 this week.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 4: @SD): I would expect Willie Snead to return this week, and while this offense can support 3 pass catchers, the emergence of Coby Fleener in week 3 could hurt Thomas's upside. If Snead is back, Thomas is more of a flex option than a locked in starter. If Snead sits again, Thomas should be a solid WR3 play.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): The Titans' defense has been better than expected, and Fuller had a shaky week 3 performance against New England. Tennessee has allowed just 41 yards per game to WR2s despite 9.4 targets per game in their direction. There is still upside here, but this is just a reminder that there is some boom-or-bust to Fuller's weekly outlook.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 4: @Hou.): The reason that I have Sharpe listed as a borderline option this week is because you can't entirely write off any team's WR1, but I would lean towards sitting Sharpe this week. The Texans have allowed the 4th-fewest WR fantasy points through the first 3 weeks, and Sharpe has been inconsistent in his own right. He could go for 80 yards and a TD, or he could go for less than 40 yards. I'd feel better if I had a safer option.
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 4: @ Was.): Kessler was surprisingly sharp last week, and this week he'll face a Washington team that is likely to be without their number 2 corner Bashaud Breeland and slot corner DeAngelo Hall. They will still have Josh Norman, however, and he will likely follow around Terrelle Pryor. If Pryor is taken away, it will severely limit what Kessler is able to do through the air. It would be really hard to trust Kessler as a QB2 unless you were desperate.
QB Jacoby Brissett, NE (Wk. 4: vs. Buf.): Jimmy Garoppolo should be back this week and would undoubtedly start if he is. If Brissett did get the nod, he would be a bottom-barrel QB2 option.
RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 4: @Bal.): Washington has been more effective than Richard in each of the past 2 weeks, but they're part of a full blown 3-way timeshare with Latavius Murray, and facing a tough matchup this week. The Ravens rank 3rd in run defense DVOA, and they've allowed just under 30 receiving yards per game to running backs. This is not the week to bet on either of these backs turning their limited touches into a productive day.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 4: @Hou.): The Texans have been just a middle of the road defense against running backs, but DeMarco Murray has cemented himself as the RB1 in Tennessee for the time being. Henry was out-touched 21-10 by Murray in week 3, and if that holds this week, I'd expect the Heisman winner to put up the typical 40 yards or so he's been putting up. It doesn't help that Murray is dominating the passing game work.
RB Josh Ferguson, IND (Wk. 4: @SD): Ferguson came up empty in a decent spot last week as Robert Turbin was a bigger part of the mix than expected. Turbin punched in a short TD, while Ferguson tallied just 4 touches and 31 yards. He's not involved enough to play at this point.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Mia.): Boyd is still playing behind Brandon LaFell, and he faces a defense this week that has allowed 104 receiving yards per game to WR1s, and just 87 receiving yards per game to all other wide receivers. AJ Green should be a great option this week. Tyler Boyd...not so much.
WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 4: vs. Buf.): Mitchell seemed to have a pretty decent rapport with Jimmy Garoppolo the first two weeks, but still put up just 3 catches for 48 yards in those games...and Gronk didn't play in either game. With Gronk back (and presumably not a decoy this time), there just won't be enough volume for Mitchell to be a fantasy factor this week.
TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Car.): The Panthers have given up 28 fantasy points to TEs over the past 2 weeks, but 13 of them came on one long TD pass to Vance McDonald. Also, it'll be Tamme and not Hooper who would have the best shot at producing. Hooper followed his 3-84 line from week 2 with a zero target game in week 3.
Rookies on Byes: QB Carson Wentz, PHI, RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI - Just a quick aside on Smallwood...although he's on a bye this week, he makes for an interesting waiver wire pickup in deeper leagues. He played great last week after Ryan Mathews left with an injury, and the team will continue to keep Smallwood involved even when Mathews is healthy. The committee will obviously make him tough to predict most weeks, but we've already seen the upside.
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA (Wk. 4: @Cin.): Arian Foster will be out again in week 4, and while the Dolphins insist they will stick with a 4-man rotation at RB, I like Drake's chances of the being the best performer of the group. He saw the most touches of the group in week 3 with 11 (the rest of the group totaled 16 touches), and he produced 48 yards with them. He's known as a passing game specialist, and the Bengals are 27th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. There is an opportunity for Drake to make an impact despite the crowded backfield mix.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 4: @Min.): Perkins is mostly a stash for now. Rashad Jennings is still uncertain for this week, but so is the rest of the Giants' backfield. Orleans Darkwa is likely the guy who will get the early down work if Jennings sits, but the injury to Shane Vereen opens up the receiving back role. The only two realistic options to fill it are Bobby Rainey and Perkins. Most experts are expecting Rainey to take over in the short term, but Perkins was an effective receiver out of the backfield at UCLA, and head coach Bob McAdoo spoke this week about the rookie being 'ready to step up.' I expect him to get a shot to make an impact this week, and if he produces he'll earn a bigger role moving forward.
WR Josh Doctson, WAS (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): Doctson sat out last week with an Achilles injury, but it sounded like it was up in the air whether or not he would play until the last minute. The Browns have given up 2 TDs to wide receivers each week this season, and Doctson was targeted in the end zone 3 times in week 2. If that happens again, I'd expect him to cash in at least one of them. He'll have a solid shot at his first career TD if he plays.
WR Ricardo Louis, CLE (Wk. 4: @Was.): Louis is a DFS punt play option this week. His speed makes him a big play waiting to happen, and Washington's banged up secondary will be focused on Terrelle Pryor. As I mentioned in the Cody Kessler breakdown, I'd expect Josh Norman to shadow Pryor whenever possible. Louis appears to have earned a role in 3-wide sets while Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon are out, and he caught 3 passes for 40 yards last week. Washington has allowed 14 pass plays of 20 or more yards this season, tied for 3rd-most in the league. With his big play ability, there will be an opportunity for Louis to have a big day out of nowhere.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some tough calls with your lineups. Keep a close eye on the injury report and make sure you don't end up starting a guy who doesn't suit up, or benching a guy who starts because of an injury to a teammate. If you have any questions, praise, or complaints, hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and it's pretty clear that this season will be a wild one...like every NFL season. The Falcons managed to drop 500 passing yards on the defending NFC champs, the Rams (?!) topped the Cardinals to go to 3-1, and the Patriots finally proved to be beatable, much to the dismay of Ben Affleck. They get Tom Brady back this week, so their vulnerability may be short-lived. The Cowboys' rookies had a field day against the 49ers, Will Fuller found the end zone twice, and Jordan Howard showed that he was ready for a full workload. The rest of the rookies weren't quite as successful, but there were still some noteworthy performances like the debuts of Paxton Lynch and Paul Perkins. Week 4 is in the books, and the decisions don't get much easier this week with 4 teams and several productive fantasy players on byes. Let's take a look at which rookies could help get you through...
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 5: @Det.): I've been hesitant to buy into Wentz as a QB1, but it's hard not to consider him a top-10 play this week with Brees and Russ Wilson on byes. Wentz gets to square off with the Lions hapless pass defense. Through 4 weeks, the Lions have allowed a 12:1 TD:INT ratio, and a league-worst 120.2 QB rating to opposing signal-callers. The Lions also rank dead last in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA stat, which measures defensive efficiency. I think the Lions will play a little better at home than they have on the road, but it's hard to not see Wentz as at least a lower-end QB1 this week.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): I don't think you need me to tell you that you should be playing Zeke, but let me give you some numbers to support it. The Bengals have been decent against the run and are likely to stack the box against Elliott (especially if Dez is out), but for the season Elliott has put up a 28-128-2 line on carries against an 8-man box. He also likely put to bed the worries that he'd keep getting vultured at the goal line after scoring a short TD last week. He's got 12 carries in the red zone on the year, and the rest of the team has 7. His volume gives him a safe floor, and those stats I listed should make you feel comfortable starting him in a slightly tougher matchup.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 5: @Ind.): Howard is clearly established as the Bears' lead back after a strong performance against a weak Lions defense. The competition doesn't get that much tougher this week. The Colts rank 26th in run defense DVOA, and have allowed the 4th most RB fantasy points on the season. He should easily return RB2 value this week, and likely more if he's able to get in the end zone.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 5: @Oak.): Make sure that Antonio Gates is officially inactive before pulling the trigger here, but Henry has shown that he has a great connection with Philip Rivers thus far and has made good on most of his chances. The Raiders have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. Henry is a solid streaming option again this week, and a great pickup if your starter is on a bye this week.
QB Paxton Lynch, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): Lynch acquitted himself well in his first regular season action, and there is a chance that Trevor Siemian could miss a game or 2 with a shoulder injury in his non-throwing shoulder. If Lynch does get the call, he's got a great chance at a top-15 week, which would make him a solid QB2 option and even a low-end QB1 play in really deep leagues. The Falcons allow the most QB points in the league and have allowed at least 3 passing TDs in each of their first 4 games. Lynch has shown that he can pick apart a bad defense last week against Tampa, and I'd like his chances to do it again if he gets the nod.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have allowed 10 passing TDs in 4 games, but they've been better versus the pass than that number would imply. They've ranked 10th in pass defense DVOA thus far, and the Cowboys may be without Dez Bryant again. WIth that said, Prescott has been a top-16 QB in each of the past 3 weeks. He's still a viable option as a low-end QB2, but I don't see a lot of upside for a top-10 performance.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 5: @Mia.): Sharpe has been inconsistent so far, but this is a plum matchup for him. The Dolphins have allowed at least 22 fantasy points to WRs each week, and have been absolutely shredded by WR1s to the tune of 117 yards per game. You're probably a little gun-shy with Sharpe after the way he's played over the past couple weeks, but he actually makes for a nice fill-in option if you have some byes to get through.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 5: @GB): Green Bay has been torched by opposing WRs, allowing the 2nd-most points to the position, but the Giants' offense hasn't exactly been on track and the Packers' secondary is getting healthier and had an extra week to prepare. Shepard has been fairly consistent despite a less than stellar outing against the stingy Vikings. He's in play as a WR3/Flex option again this week. I'd be surprised if he totaled less than 50 yards, but I wouldn't bank on this being a big game even though the Packers have been giving up so much to WRs.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 5: @Min.): Fuller's blazing speed has helped him to be a difference-maker for the Texans so far, and likely frustrated some DeAndre Hopkins owners. The Vikings have been excellent against WRs though. They've allowed the 2nd-fewest points to wide receivers so far and just one WR touchdown. Only 3 different teams have allowed fewer completions of 20+ yards than the 9 allowed by Minnesota. This week is more likely to be a bust than a boom for Fuller, but he's still a borderline option with several top wideouts on byes.
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. NE): The return of Tom Brady could lead to the Patriots running up the score on Cleveland as they get out some frustration from last weekend's loss to Buffalo. As a result, there could be some garbage time stats for Kessler, but I wouldn't count on much here. The Patriots have allowed the 15th-fewest points per game to opposing QBs, and Kessler's previous two opponents had allowed the 14th- and 16th-fewest (Miami and Washington), and Kessler tallied just 9 and 10 points in those games. Expecting much more here would likely be a mistake.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): Washington's breakout was put on hold when he suffered an ankle injury early on against the Bears. He had put up 14 yards on 3 touches before the injury, but now he's questionable for week 5 at best and faces a much tougher defense. The Eagles allow the 2nd-fewest points to opposing RBs, and I'd expect Zach Zenner to see some work even if Washington is able to play. The Lions also continue to force a square peg into a round hole with Theo Riddick mixing in on early down work as well.
RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 5: vs. SD): The Raiders' backfield has quickly become a situation to avoid. Even Latavius Murray isn't a safe play at this point as things devolve into a full-blown 3-way split. Jack Del Rio talked up DeAndre Washington last week and mentioned that he would see more action, but he received just 8 touches on Sunday. He's averaged 7.25 per game. In the past 2 weeks, Latavius has handled 21 touches, Washington has had 15, and Richard 10. While San Diego is a great matchup, none of these guys are safe options. Even if you play Latavius, you're hoping he finds the end zone.
RB Josh Ferguson, IND (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): Ferguson had his best opportunity yet in week 4, but failed to take full advantage of it as the Colts tried to battle back from behind in London. The rookie did pull in 7 receptions, which is nice in PPR leagues, but he totaled just 31 yards from scrimmage on 10 touches. Chicago is hardly an imposing matchup, but I would have to be really desperate in a really deep PPR league to even consider playing Ferguson this week.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): Booker remains just a handcuff for CJ Anderson. He's a really talented handcuff, but the volume just isn't there for him to have stand-alone value. He's seen just 25 touches for 114 yards through 4 games (6.25 for 28.5 per game).
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 5: @Mia.): You probably aren't playing Henry this week anyway, but if you were considering him as a bye week fill-in, just be aware that he played only 9 snaps in week 4 and the Dolphins have allowed just one rushing TD. His snap share has been steadily declining as DeMarco Murray's strong play has continued. The volume won't be there for Henry to be a viable option this week.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 5: @GB): Perkins may still be worth a stash, but for now he's best left on the bench. He managed to put up 80 yards in week 4, but he did so on just 4 touches. Bobby Rainey saw 11 touches and seems to have the receiving back role for now. Rashad Jennings should also be back before long.
WR Ricardo Louis, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. NE): Louis has been playing a lot of snaps over the past 2 weeks with Corey Coleman out, but he hasn't turned it into much production with just 6 catches. He's a burner and is capable of beating the defense for a deep ball, but Cody Kessler has the shortest average target depth in the league thus far, and the Patriots are one of just 2 teams that haven't allowed a pass play of 40 or more yards. There isn't much upside here. Louis likely winds up with 30-40 yards on 2-3 catches.
WRs Charone Peake & Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Eric Decker is very likely out for this week (and potentially quite a bit longer), and the matchup is decent for the Jets, with the Steelers ranking 17th in pass defense DVOA. There's a decent chance that Peake or Anderson will make an impact this week, but good luck guessing which one. Anderson got the start last week, but Peake out-produced him on half as many targets, and also scored a TD on a fumble return. Because of that, I think I'd lean towards Peake if I were picking one of these two, but neither is more than a DFS tournament punt play.
TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 5: @Den.): Hooper did crack double-digit fantasy points last weekend, and the Broncos stout defense has been vulnerable to tight ends (Cameron Brate just went for 5-67 against them), but he produced those double-digit points on just one target. Jacob Tamme is the tight end you'd want in this matchup, not Hooper.
Rookies on byes in Week 5: RB CJ Prosise,SEA, WR Michael Thomas, NO, WR Tyreek Hill, KC
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 5: @Det.): The Lions still haven't allowed a running back TD this season, but they've allowed over 140 scrimmage yards per game to them and they rank 31st in run DVOA. It's only a matter of time before the TDs follow. Ryan Mathews should be back in this game, but head coach Doug Pederson has already said that they will use more of a committee approach, and Smallwood is coming off a very impressive game in week 2. He'll still have to contend with Mathews and Darren Sproles for touches, but I think he gets more work than Mathews this week and has some legitimate flex appeal in leagues with 12+ teams.
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Was.): John Harbaugh declined to endorse Terrance West as the lead back despite his impressive week 4 performance, and Dixon seems to be on track to play in week 5. There isn't necessarily a ton of upside this week for Dixon, but with Justin Forsett gone, Dixon should absolutely be owned. West has never shown much ability as a receiver, and Marc Trestman's offense has averaged 9 passing targets per game to RBs after averaging 10.5 last year. Dixon should be the receiving back going forward, and he'll have a chance to earn a bigger role if West struggles. He's a better PPR add right now, but there is upside for him to become a viable standard league option as well.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 5: @Dal.): Boyd hasn't made the splash that many predicted he would, still struggling to beat out Brandon LaFell in the pecking order, but this week's matchup may work in his favor. The Cowboys rank 24th in pass DVOA, and 3 of the 4 passing TDs they've allowed to WRs have been to slot WRs (Sterling Shepard, Jamison Crowder, and Jeremy Kerley). Boyd runs most of his routes in the slot. If Eifert returns this week, it'll hurt Boyd's outlook, but he's got a real shot to find the end zone this week.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you make some of the tougher lineup decisions this week to deal with your bye weeks. Keep an eye on the injury report throughout the week to not be caught off-guard on Sunday if someone winds up sitting at the last minute. The lack of the 'Probable' injury designation has made it tougher than ever to stay on top of who's in and out, so stay vigilant. If you want to tell me how wrong I am or have any specific questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's been a brutal season thus far for injuries, so hopefully your team is surviving alright through 5 weeks. Now that we're a handful of weeks in, things are starting to get clearer with this year's rookie crop...unfortunately not many of them among high picks have been able to carve out a big role, so the list of plug-and-play rookie starters is a short one, but there is still plenty to sift through. Let's take a look at what to expect in week 6...
Rookies to Start:
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): Howard has been phenomenal over the past two weeks, and it's safe to say at this point he's ahead of Jeremy Langford even when he returns from injury. Jordan should be a strong play again this week against Jacksonville. The Jaguars haven't given up a ton of RB points, but they rank just 29th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA, and have allowed over 4 yards per carry to each starting RB they've faced. The Bears' offense has shown some life and balance with Hoyer and Howard leading the way. I like Howard's chances to get 20 carries in this one, and I expect him to find 80+ yards and a great chance at a TD. He's played like an RB1 the past 2 weeks, and he should be a safe RB2 this week with upside for more again.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 6: @GB): Despite a brutal matchup this week, Zeke is a locked-in every-week starter at this point. I would probably fade him in DFS, but I wouldn't be able to sit him in season-long leagues. The Packers have allowed under 50 rushing yards to opposing RBs in each of their 4 games, rank 2nd in run defense DVOA, and allow the fewest RB fantasy points in the league. With that said, Zeke has been steamrolling teams lately and will get enough volume to be a passable RB2 even if the Packers are able to slow him down.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 6: @GB): Dak has been eerily consistent so far. He’s put up exactly 17 points (ESPN standard scoring) in 3 of his past 4 games, and 22 in the other. He should be in that ballpark again vs. a Packers’ secondary that is still trying to get healthy. The Packers rank 19th in pass defense DVOA, and they allow opposing QBs an average of…17 points per game. Look for Dak to be a mid-range QB2.
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 6: @Was.): Last week, Baltimore fell to Washington mainly because they got away from running the football despite having a ton of success when they did run. I don’t expect the Eagles to make the same mistake this week, so you should see a bunch of Ryan Mathews in this one. Washington ranks a middle-of-the-pack 16th in pass defense DVOA, but dead last in that metric for their run defense. They’ve also allowed just 3 passing TDs in their past 4 contests. Wentz is a borderline option in 2 QB leagues this week.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. Ind.): We saw the ‘bust’ side of the boom-or-bust proposition that is Fuller last week, but the matchup gets much lighter this week. Indy ranks just 30th in pass defense DVOA, and I would expect their top cover corner Vontae Davis to be assigned to cover Hopkins for most of this one. Davis has allowed 12 catches for 118 yards and zero TDs on 20 targets in the three games he’s played in, or 4-39-0 on 6.3 targets per week. The Texans’ offense has been ugly the past few weeks, so there is some downside here, but with the Colts giving up 307 passing yards per game…they have to go to someone. I expect this week to be more of a boom than a bust. Fuller is an upside WR3 this week.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): I wouldn’t blame you if you can’t bring yourself to start Shep this week. He’s had a rough couple of games and the Giants’ offense just seems broken. The Ravens have struggled more with perimeter receivers than slot guys like Shepard, but they have given up 9 WR touchdowns in the past 4 games. For TD upside alone Shepard is back on the WR3 radar this week. I still trust his talent, and it’s just a matter of time until this offense gets on track.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 6: vs. Car.): Drew Brees at home is always a good situation for New Orleans pass catchers, and the Panthers have showed some vulnerability over the past couple weeks. They are still a tough defense, and are tied for the 10th-fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs despite giving up 52(!) to the Falcons. I would still rather start Cooks or Willie Snead this week, but Thomas is definitely in play as a WR3 or Flex option. Over his past 7 home games, Brees has thrown 26 touchdown passes with at least 3 in each game.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 6: vs. Den.): Antonio Gates should be getting healthier, and the matchup isn’t ideal with Denver allowing zero TE scores thus far, but you could do worse than Henry this week. I would expect him to still play about as many snaps as Gates if not more, and with the Broncos’ corners being so good against WRs, TE has been a good place to attack their defense. Denver hasn’t exactly faced any top end TEs after week 1, but they did allow lines of 7-73 to Greg Olsen and 5-67 to Cameron Brate this season. Henry is only in play as a low-end streamer, but unlike most TE streamers he should provide at least a handful of points even if he doesn’t find the end zone.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Paxton Lynch, DEN (Wk. 6: @SD): It's unlikely that Lynch starts again this week, but if Siemian isn't able to make the start, Lynch is a consideration as a QB2 streamer for 2-QB leagues. He wasn't impressive in his first start, but he had looked good the week before after Siemian was hurt. There is a decent floor in this matchup, with the Chargers allowing 300+ passing yards in 4 of their first 5 games, and 2 passing TDs in 4 of them as well, but counting on a rookie in his second career start to hit those numbers is a risky proposition.
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 6: @Ten.): Don’t get cute here in 2 QB leagues. It’s likely that Kessler gets the start this week and has handled himself fairly well, but the Titans’ defense has been better than you probably think it has. They’ve allowed the 4th-fewest points per game to opposing QBs, and rank 8th in pass defense DVOA. This is not a great spot to take a chance on Kessler, even if you’re desperate in a 2 QB league.
RBs Jalen Richard & DeAndre Washington, OAK (Wk. 6: vs. KC): With Latavius Murray due back this week, the running back split will be too unpredictable to feel comfortable starting any Raiders' back if he actually plays. As of Wednesday, Murray still isn’t practicing, so both Richard and Washington would be bumped up to the Borderline section if Latavius indeed sits again. They would both be on the Flex radar. It’s a juicy matchup, with the Chiefs allowing the 6th-most RB fantasy points, and allowing at least 95 RB rush yards in each game. Richard was more productive than Washington last week, but both men had the exact same number of touches. I would expect a similar split this week if Latavius is a no-go. I still have no feel for which will be better on a weekly basis, so proceed with caution here.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 6: vs. Phi.): Head coach Jay Gruden mentioned that he thinks Kelley has earned more carries, but there’s no telling how many more that means. He had just 3 carries last week, and just 8 on the season for a paltry 29 yards. His role may increase a bit this week, but third downs still belong to Chris Thompson and the Eagles have been stout against the run, allowing the 5th-fewest RB fantasy points per game and ranking 7th in run defense DVOA. I would need to actually see the workload increase play out on the field before I’d consider him in my lineups.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 6: vs. LA): There’s a chance that Washington will be able to play this week, but things aren’t started on the right foot after he missed practice Wednesday. Even if he’s able to play, this is Theo Riddick’s backfield, and the addition of Justin Forsett only clouds Washington’s outlook further. You’d be best served waiting to see how this backfield split shakes out this week. The only Lions’ back I’d feel okay playing is Riddick.
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 6: @NYG): There's no reason to fire up Dixon just yet. He's still an interesting stash, but he didn't have a great debut, splitting passing down work with Buck Allen and not making a big impact with his opportunities. He'll likely continue to work in as a receiving back, but with the Jim Trestman firing, the Ravens likely won’t target their RBs in the passing game as often. Meanwhile, the Giants are 4th in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing RBs. Take a wait-and-see approach with Dixon.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): Perkins is already fighting with Bobby Rainey, Orleans Darkwa, and possibly Rashad Jennings for snaps and touches, and this week the Giants face a Ravens defense that has allowed the 2nd-fewest running back points in the league. No thanks.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Sharpe had been seeing at least 7 targets per week in the first 4 weeks, but his efficiency with those targets hasn't been where it needs to be (11-113-0 on 25 targets over the past 4 weeks). Last week, with Tennessee playing from ahead for much of the game Sharpe saw just 4 targets. The Titans are a 7-point favorite, so I'd expect more of the same this week. If you start Sharpe, you're just hoping for a TD.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 6: @NE): The Patriots are allowing just 26 yards per game to WRs who aren't their team's number 1 or 2 WR, and Boyd has been averaging just 15 yards and 4 targets per game over the past 3 games. He wouldn't be near my lineup.
Rookie on Bye: WR Laquon Treadwell, MIN
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 6: @SD): Booker is still more of a high-end injury handcuff than anything, but his matchup this week makes him an intriguing flex option in deeper leagues. He’s flashed when given the opportunity, and he’s been slowly getting more opportunity. In week 5, Booker handled 10 touches to CJ Anderson’s 14. It’s unknown if he’ll continue to take that big a chunk of the work going forward, however. Booker was targeted in the passing game 6 times in week 5 after receiving just 3 targets total in the first 4 weeks. I question if any of that is a product of Paxton Lynch being the QB. At any rate, the Chargers have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing RBs and Booker is likely to see close to 10 touches again. There is upside there for a solid performance.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Henry is still clearly second-fiddle to DeMarco Murray, but it was nice to see him get involved again last week with 7 carries and a robust 7.7 yards per carry. The Titans are a touchdown favorite this week against a Browns team that has allowed 18+ running back points in 4 of their 5 games. There could be an opportunity for some garbage time carries for Henry, and possibly his second game with double-digit carries on the year. He’s no more than a desperation Flex for deeper leagues or a DFS tournament punt play, but the matchup could work in his favor this week.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your lineup decisions. I'm quickly learning that this new injury designation setup is a nightmare, so make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report and not play an inactive player. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about stuff you think I'm way off on, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.