Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
10,363 Consecutive Snaps
We'll step aside from fantasy for just a moment to mention the incredible streak that was broken on Sunday. Cleveland Browns tackle Joe Thomas has been playing for 11 years and never missed a snap. That's 10,363 in a row, eat your heart out, Brett Favre. Most of us have a hard time getting through a month without checking out of work, so big props go to Joe and his true Ironman streak. This is one that should go down in the books right next to Favre and Cal Ripken, as his streak is probably the toughest one to achieve. Get well soon, Joe, and I hope you can start a new streak next season.
33-0
So far this year, London has been treated to two shutouts over three games after the Rams shellacking of the Cardinals yesterday. If the NFL isn't careful (and if we're lucky), they might not be invited back anymore if we just keep sending them our garbage. Of course, this is the crux of the problem with London games. These games have to be scheduled far in advance, so they can't flex to a better schedule, and the break in routine messes with teams, especially ones that are struggling. If the NFL wants to fix their ratings problems, they need to focus on delivering a better quality product… I'm looking at you, Thursday Night Football.
2 Return TD's
Bears rookie Eddie Jackson provided all the offense needed on Sunday when he returned a Cam Newton fumble 75 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter. He added more just for fun in the second when he returned a deflected pass 76 yards for another touchdown. Jackson single-handedly scored more points than the Panthers, Browns, Colts, Falcons, Giants, Cardinals, Broncos and 49ers. This allowed fellow rookie Mitch Trubisky to win with only 4 completions, which I feel must be some sort of achievement you can try for in Madden. 40% of the Bears total offense came on one play, a 70-yard completion to yet another rookie, Tarik Cohen.
8 RB's over 17 Points
The running back position continues to be top-heavy and even more productive than their receiving counterparts. Led by Ezekiel Elliott, there were 8 RB's that put up 17 points or more - 7 of them going for 100 yards or more on the ground. By comparison, the top 8 WR's only had 2 guys go over 100 yards and scored 3.3 points less per player. The WR's were helped out by the reappearance of Amari Cooper, more on him below. The RB's are propping up some weaker QB performances, the TD:INT ratio this week was only 37:19, reminiscent of weeks 1 and 2 when the NFL saw a rather flat offensive start.
33 Fantasy Points
Amari Cooper put up a huge 33 points on Thursday Night Football, showing me that not all football on Thursday night is automatically bad. Cooper had only 8.4 points total over his last 5 games - 3 of those games he had less than 1 point. A player who was drafted to be a WR1, he was only started by 69% of Yahoo teams last week, so if you're kicking yourself for not starting him, at least you aren't the only one. His 19 targets are tied with Antonio Brown for the most on the season for all players. Derek Carr is also back, putting up by far his best game of the season - he scored 31.5% of his total points this season by putting up 417 yards and tossing 3 TD's, including the little touchdown that could at the end of the game.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
7 QBs over 30 Points
No tricks, no BS – there’s even an 8th guy who may reach this level tonight. So far this week, there are 7 QBs that put up at least 30 points in standard scoring, led by usual suspect Mitchell Trubisky. OK, maybe he’s never even come close to these heights. Heck, his 43.46 points this season is more than he put up in the first three weeks combined. Now, I’m not sure that everyone should rush out to place claims on Trubes, but he did finally show what the Bears offensive ceiling is, and it’s actually impressive. He even broke the modern Bears QB record with 6 TD passes – nobody even had 5 of them since Sid Luckman threw for 7 back in 1943. On the other side of the ball Sunday, we saw the end of the 2018 installment of Fitzmagic – this guy’s fun, but I suspect we might have seen the last Ryan Fitzpatrick playing well as a starting QB (barring injury). Jameis Winston is ready to lick his fingers and eat some W’s (just….gross) when they return to action in Week 6. Farewell, Bucs – we hardly knew ye.
158.3 Passer Rating
Last Thursday, we were treated to real football. Part of that real football game was the most perfect passing performance, statistically speaking, we’ve ever seen. Jared Goff’s performance was the 70th time that a QB posted a perfect passer rating. It was perhaps the best perfect game ever, featuring both the most passing attempts (33) and passing yards (465) of any perfect passer rating game in history. Goff added 5 TDs to finish with a cool 39.3 fantasy points. Goff is definitely trending up and is now a top-4 QB in fantasy through one quarter of the season. The Rams WRs were the big winners here – each of their top 3 guys, Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods all put up over 16 points – 100+ yards and 1+ TDs each. The fantasy value on the Rams is overflowing and you should get in on it now before getting priced out of the market for trade value.
567 Made Field Goals
As promised last week, Adam Vinatieri has earned his way back into the discussion with his record breaking performance on Sunday. Vinatieri was 2/2 on FG kicks and has now passed Morten Anderson for sole possession of the all-time record for FGs made. A deeper dive into his stats (a list of all his made FGs is available here) shows that he also has 56 more made FGs in the playoffs, including a whopping 14 in 2006 alone. He’s made 40 FGs of 50+ yards. He’s made 12 FGs in overtime, including his one on Sunday. 160 of those FGs were kicks that gave his team the lead. He even has one passing TD to his name. Vinatieri deserves to be a first ballot hall of famer, and it’s been fun watching his career – heck, him playing even pre-dates my interest in the NFL. In tribute, 13 other kickers also put up 10 or more points in a week filled with offense.
240 Yards from Scrimmage
The anemic Cowboys offense got a shot of 50cc’s of pure Zeke on Sunday against the Lions. Ezekiel Elliot set a career high mark with 240 yards from scrimmage. He added 1 receiving TD, bringing his fantasy total up to an even 30 points. Those 30 are good for only 9th most points this week – offense is increasing everywhere. Sunday, Zeke touched the ball a whopping 29 times, a trend that has to continue if Dallas wishes to win any more games this year. Their offense has looked so bad in the first 3 games of the season, that pushing more than 50% of the offense (Sunday was 29 touches for Zeke, 23 for the rest of the team) is the only path to victory. This is unsustainable over the course of 16 games, but it will result in tons of fantasy production for Zeke. He has 51% of the team’s touches and is the 4th best fantasy RB so far this season. I expect him to continue with his 100 yards and/or 1 TD M.O. most of the season, but he is vulnerable to a dud game because of the team that’s around him.
1st Regular Season Td
Titans WR Corey Davis finally recorded his first regular season touchdown. After finding the end zone twice in the postseason last year, Davis finally got one that counts on the regular stat sheet. Davis had a hell of a game, grabbing 9 receptions on 15 targets for 161 yards and the game winning TD in overtime. Davis had a whopping 15 points on the season going into the week, and put up 22.1. With the sudden departure (not a Leftovers reference) of Rishard Matthews last week, Davis is in line to continue getting a heavy workload. It helps that his QB Marcus Mariota seems healthy, so this connection should continue to grow. Next up is the Bills, so the 3-1 Titans should keep rolling.
It's hard to believe that we're approaching the end of the first month of the NFL season already. We finally have enough games completed to start to pick up on player trends around the league. For now, I'm focused on Quarterbacks and Running Backs, but we will go over all the positions on tonight's podcast. Trending players will have a three-week fantasy performance that is either going up or going down, and we'll examine why that's the case and what we expect out of that player going forward.
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold (Week 1: 19.06, Week 2: 20.50, Week 3: 25.26) - Darnold has the Panthers rolling with a 3-0 start. He’s only thrown 1 INT so far, and found the end zone three times on the ground, which is always something that you like to see from your fantasy QB. He’s also throwing the ball a decent amount, averaging just over 35 attempts per game with 24 completions per game. Darnold has not played the toughest competition so far, but has plenty of easy matchups coming up with games against PHI, NYG, and ATL all coming up well before his bye week. If you’re streaming QBs, you should love the floor that the QB12 on the season can give you. If you’re in a super flex league, then Darnold is easily an every week starter. Carolina’s strong rushing attack has helped him tremendously. His advanced passing stats are far better this year than they have been in his career.
Justin Herbert (Week 1: 14.38, Week 2: 16.72, Week 3: 30.84) - Herbert had a very slow start to the season after finishing last year as the ROY. He seemed unable to get the Chargers offense going in the first two weeks, scoring only 37 points on offense total. Last week he redeemed himself with 4 touchdowns through the air, one of which was on a game winning 4th quarter drive in their victory over the Chiefs. Herbert is owned in 90% of Fleaflicker leagues, meaning he’s not going to be on the streaming radar. If you drafted him, the urge to push the panic button should be subsiding. Herbert currently sits as the QB13 through three games, but you can safely expect him to finish well inside the top 10 by the end of the season with more performances like he turned in against the Chiefs.
Jared Goff (Week 1: 29.92, Week 2: 19.44, Week 3: 9.08) - Goff has displayed a classic downward trend for the first three weeks of the season. He started off very hot statistically in his first game, getting lots of garbage time points, finishing as the QB3 in Week 1 and providing some hope for Lions fans. But as all good Lions fans know, their hopes were dashed very quickly as the Lions lost the next two games as well. Goff has trended down in completions, attempts, and yardage in each subsequent game, even with plenty of garbage time opportunities in Week 2. While he hasn’t played particularly badly, it’s clear that there just isn’t much talent around him to support big games outside of some fluky garbage time stuff. Goff remains on the streaming radar, but only in great matchups. His floor is probably too low to rely on him and you certainly cannot rely on garbage time points.
Running Backs
Najee Harris (Week 1: 5.40, Week 2: 16.60, Week 3: 21.20) - This one’s for Dave. OK, not really, but I think he likes it when we talk about Steelers players. So, Harris is a rookie, so a slow start was probably to be expected. What I did not expect to see what a stat line like he had last week when he had 14 carries and 19 targets (14 receptions). Harris is lined up to be a PPR monster with action like that. He ramped up from 1 to 5 to 14 receptions, so while you can’t expect numbers like 14 receptions every week, you can assume that he is going to have a relatively high receiving floor. Harris is being used on every down, and with lots of injuries to the receiving corps, it looks like the offense will run through him. There are very few every-down backs in the NFL, and Harris was taken in fantasy drafts with the potential he could be one of those in mind. It looks like everything is going as planned for the Steelers rookie.
David Montgomery (Week 1: 18.30, Week 2: 9.40, Week 3: 6.50) - Montgomery started out the season strong, gaining 108 yards on just 16 carries against the Rams defense, but has really fallen off a cliff along with the rest of the Bears offense since then. On the season, Montgomery is now averaging just 2.0 receptions per game, down from 3.6 last season. His rushing attempts and yards per game are also down from last year. What worries me most is that the Bears appear to have an anemic offense at best and might struggle to move the ball early in games, thus turning them one-dimensional late in games.Until the Bears figure out what they want to do at QB, whether it’s running out a game manager, or developing Justin Fields, Montgomery will be a touchdown dependent RB2/3 with a relatively low floor for a guy that is going to still see a high percentage of snaps.
Ezekiel Elliott (Week 1: 4.90, Week 2: 16.70, Week 3: 25.10) - Zeke has trended up in many stat categories, so he’s the perfect example for this segment. His carries have gone 11, 16, 17. His yardage is 33, 71, 95 and his TDs have gone 0, 1, 2. Zeke was obviously a first round pick and is being started regardless of his slow start, but it’s nice to see that he’s ramped his production up nicely and while Tony Pollard is going to get his share of touches, Zeke is still the primary back and will be in line for 15-20 touches on average every game. The only thing that worries me about Zeke is that the Cowboys have a tendency to go pass-heavy in some games, as evidenced in week 1, thus leaving Zeke with a very low floor for a premier RB. If he was more involved in the passing offense, I would be fine with any game script that the Cowboys are presented with. Unfortunately so far this year, he has 2.3 receptions per game, down from 3.5 just a year ago, and way down from his career high of 5.1 in 2018 when he led the league in touches. 51 touches through 3 games is not what you drafted Zeke for, so you’re going to have to hope he does a lot with the touches he does get.