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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to the final week bye week of the season. Hopefully you’re in good playoff position heading into this week. Week 11 had some exciting new developments, including the continued breakout of Deebo Samuel and the debut of N’Keal Harry, but let’s not live in the past. Let’s look at what to expect from week 12…

Rookies to Start:

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 12: @NYJ): As usual, Jacobs is an obvious start this week. He’s not quite a chalk DFS play, but he should be a fine fantasy starter in this one. The Jets have been tough on running backs for a team with just 3 wins. They’ve allowed the 13^th fewest RB PPR points per game and rank 2^nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but the Raiders should feed Jacobs once again. They’re a 3-point road favorite and should have no problem keeping the game script at least neutral. Jacobs has run for 110 or more yards in 4 of his past 6 games and has multiple receptions in 6 of his last 7.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Sanders didn’t exactly have the breakout game we all hoped for last weekend with Jordan Howard out, but I like his chances to have that big day this week if Howard sits again. New England is one of the toughest RB matchups in the league because they allow the 2^nd lowest RB receiving production in the league. The Seahawks aren’t a complete pushover, allowing the 11^th-fewest RB points per game, but they rank just 16^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 11^th-highest yards per rush attempt. They’ve also allowed 3 backs this year to reach 8+ catches and 60+ receiving yards in a game. If Sanders gets a full workload he should be a safe RB2 with so many backs out of commission this week. If Howard plays, he falls to more of an RB3 or flex option.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 12: @Phi.): On the other side of the Philly-Seattle game, DK Metcalf looks poised to have a strong week facing a secondary that allows the 7^th-most WR PPR points per game. Metcalf has been playing at a high level lately, and the Seahawks will have Tyler Lockett playing at less than 100%. In his last 4 games, Metcalf has turned 33 targets into 19-259-3. DK is a little pricey to be a sneaky DFS play this week, but he should be a strong WR3 and passable WR3 in a smash spot this week.

Borderline Rookies: 

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Singletary has become the clear lead back in Buffalo, and in a week with numerous injuries and byes at the top of the position, he has to be in RB2 consideration, but the matchup is a bit dicey this week. The Broncos allow the 12^th-fewest RB points per game and haven’t allowed more than 76 rushing yards to an opposing back since week 4 (Marlon Mack hit 76 against them in week 8). They also rank 6^th in run defense DVOA. Singletary remains a solid option and a decent bet to reach double-digit PPR points, but his ceiling isn’t exciting this week. 

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): You know the drill with Montgomery. The usage has been there, but the rushing efficiency hasn’t. He’s averaged 4 yards per carry or more in a game just twice this season. Monty has had at least 14 carries and 15 touches in each of the last 4 games, and with Chicago favored by almost a touchdown this week I’d expect that streak to be safe, but he’ll likely finish as a low-end RB2 if he doesn’t get into the end zone. The Giants have given up just 8 RB scores on the year (rushing or receiving). The volume will make Montgomery a passable floor play with the hope for more.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 12: vs. GB): There is a lot up in the air this week for the 49ers offense with regard to injuries. Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders, Matt Breida, and George Kittle are all not taking contact yet as of Thursday. The 49ers seem to have found something in Samuel, so he should be a solid WR3 option even in a tough matchup with Green Bay if he plays, but if you have safe options that play earlier in the day it would probably make sense to get them in the lineup rather than wait on Deebo. The Packers allow the 8^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 12: @LAR): Brown is more of a ceiling play than anything this week. The Rams have been ok against opposing wide receivers, limiting them to the 13^th-fewest PPR points per game, but Brown is likely to have to tangle with Jalen Ramsey for much of this game. Julio Jones is the only team WR1 to reach 70 yards against the Rams since week 4. Brown’s deep threat skills make him an intriguing upside option, but this week could be a tough one for him if he doesn’t get a deep ball.

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): McLaurin got back on track to some degree last week, totaling 69 yards on just 4 targets against the Jets. He also had a 67-yard catch nixed by a penalty. All in all, it was a good sign for McLaurin moving forward. He gets another plus matchup this week against a Lions’ secondary that has been cooked lately, allowing five 80+ yard receiving days and 7 WR touchdowns in their last 5 games. McLaurin is in play as a WR3 in a favorable matchup, but beware there is still a low floor given the shaky QB play he’s getting.

WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Renfrow has fully emerged as a weekly PPR WR3 streamer over the last few weeks. The Raiders have actively looked to involve him in the passing game, and he gets a great matchup this week. In his last 4 games he’s gone 19-250-2 on 22 targets. He gets to face the Jets this week, who allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game. I’d expect a double-digit PPR output from Renfrow this week, putting him back in that WR3 range.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 12: @Buf.): Fant will be an interesting option at the tail end of the TE1 range this week. With Hunter Henry and Travis Kelce on byes this week, the TE position is a little uglier than usual. The Bills have been as tough a matchup as there is for tight ends this year. They’ve given up just 1 touchdown to the position, allowed only 1 TE to catch more than 4 passes, and only 1 to top 50 receiving yards, and they weren’t the same tight end. Fant has been on a bit of a tear since the Broncos traded Emmanuel Sanders and Jeff Heuerman has been hurt. In the last 3 weeks, Fant has been targeted 23 times and totaled 12-201-1. The usage should be there even in the tough matchup. Fant’s ceiling won’t be great, but he has a reasonable shot at being the second tight end to reach 50 yards against Buffalo.

Rookies to Sit: 

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 12: @Chi.): Jones has been a road warrior this season, averaging 24.5 fantasy points per road start compared with 11.25 points per home start, but that largely is a result of who his opponents were. His 3 blowup performances came against the defenses that allow the 2^nd, 4^th and 11^th-most points per game to opposing QBs. This week’s opponent allows the 5^th-fewest and have allowed just 9 passing scores in 10 games. Jones has turned the ball over 11 times in his last 5 starts. He’ll need rushing production to make him even a worthwhile QB2 play this week in a brutal matchup. If you’re considering Jones in a 1 QB format you’re doing yourself a disservice this week.

QB Ryan Finley, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Finley had a prime opportunity to have a decent game last week and he fell horribly flat, completing just 42% of his passes for 115 yards, zero TDs and a pick. This week he’ll face a Steelers’ defense that has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to fewer than 200 passing yards and forced 16 QB turnovers in those games. If Finley were your last option in a superflex league, I’d consider starting a non-QB instead.

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 12: @Was.): Johnson returned from his injury last weekend, but he didn’t return to his normal role. I think Bo Scarbrough’s early down role might become the new normal in Detroit rather than a one-game fluke. Both Ty Johnson and JD McKissic are more built to be third down backs rather than early down grinders. Washington has given up the 5^th-most rushing yards per game to opposing backs, and I’d look more to the new guy Scarbrough to be the best fantasy option in the Lions’ backfield this week. 

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 12: @NE): It was nice to see Pollard get into the end zone last week and make the most of his opportunities, but the Cowboys enter week 12 as a touchdown underdog and Pollard doesn’t get opportunities when the Cowboys are behind. 37 of his 51 carries this season have come with Dallas in the lead (27 of them with a multiple score lead) and 8 of his 11 targets came with the team ahead as well. This week’s opponent, the Patriots, allow the fewest RB points per game and allow fewer than 30 running back receiving yards per game. There isn’t much upside for Pollard here even if he gets a boost in playing time.

RB Qadree Ollison, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. TB): Ollison found the end zone last week, but it would be tough to roll the dice on a repeat performance. He was the 3^rd option in the run game behind Brian Hill and Kenjon Barner, so you’re just hoping for a goal line carry or 2 if you play him. The Bucs allow the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game and rank 1^st in run defense DVOA. I’d look elsewhere if desperate for a running back this week.

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ten.): It was nice to see Armstead get a couple targets again in the passing game, but he’s still only seeing a handful of snaps and a few touches per game. There isn’t enough production to consider him unless Fournette misses time.

RB Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 12: @Cle.): Gaskin is fighting for scraps in one of the worst offenses in the league. No running back on the team saw more than one carry other than Kalen Ballage despite Ballage being his usual inefficient self. Gaskin has played just 12 snaps in the two weeks he’s been active. Even with Mark Walton being cut from the team, there isn’t a reason to take a flyer on Gaskin.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 12: @Chi.): The last time we saw Slayton he was roasting the Jets for 10-121-2 on 15 targets. It was an impressive performance to be sure, but it’ll be tough for him to produce anywhere close to that this week. Sterling Shepard is practicing in full and is expected to clear the concussion protocol in time to play this week, and Evan Engram has an outside shot at suiting up as well. Shepard was targeted 9 times in each of the 3 games he played with Daniel Jones, including one that Golden Tate was active for. I still think Slayton is in line for a decent workload (5-7 targets), but the Bears allow the 2^nd-fewest WR PPR points per game and Slayton is a bit overpriced to be a cheap DFS option ($5,300 on DraftKings). You could play Slayton if you’re desperate, but with Shepard back and the tough matchup I’d look for a safer option.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): I’d love to tell you that Brown is a sneaky option this week, but the Titans’ passing game just hasn’t been trustworthy all year and Jacksonville has allowed just one wide receiver to reach 70 yards in their last 4 games. The return of Corey Davis should also take away some of Brown’s target share. If Brown manages to top 50 yards this week it would be a bit of an upset.

WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): With N’Keal Harry active for the first time last Sunday, Meyers was relegated to the 5^th WR role for the Pats. He did still play 19 snaps but managed just 1 catch for 7 yards on 2 targets. As Harry gets more integrated into the offense, Meyers is going to find it harder to make a fantasy impact. Meyers would slide into the sleeper category for this week if Dorsett doesn’t play, but it’s still a low upside spot with the Cowboys allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game.

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 12: @Hou.): It sounds like Campbell may return from his abdominal injury this week, and he would’ve been an interesting sleeper this week if TY Hilton were still out, but Hilton’s return renders Campbell an afterthought for fantasy purposes this week. Monitor his production this week, but he’ll be hard to actually use in any lineups.

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 12: @Was.): You might be able to get away with Hockenson as a fill-in tight end this week, but he’s been a disappointment more often than not. Washington was eviscerated by the tight ends of the Jets last week, but prior to last week hadn’t allowed any tight end to reach 60 yards and had only allowed 2 TE scores. Hockenson hasn’t topped 4 catches in any game since week one, and has only reached 50 yards once and has just 1 score since then. There are other tight ends you can find that would be a better option this week.

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Moreau continues to get in the end zone every other week, but his usage continues to render him almost unplayable. His snap share has been solid, playing about 40% of the offensive snaps or higher every week, but in the last 4 games he’s totaled just 4-21-2 on 6 targets. If he doesn’t get in the end zone, he’ll give you close to a goose egg, and the Jets have allowed just 2 tight end scores all year.

Rookies on Byes: QB Kyler Murray, ARI, RB Alexander Mattison, MIN, RB Darwin Thompson, KC, WR Andy Isabella, ARI, WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI, WR Bisi Johnson, MIN, WR Mecole Hardman, KC, TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options: 

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): I know…I feel dirty even considering recommending Haskins in a fantasy lineup, but if there was ever a week for him to come through, this is it. The Lions have given up multiple passing TDs in 6 straight games, and 3+ passing scores in 4 of the last 5. They’ve also given up 280+ passing yards in 5 of them and haven’t picked off a pass since week 6. This could be a get right spot for their defense, or it could be Dwayne Haskins’ first useful fantasy week. Haskins has sneaky upside in 2QB leagues as a desperation streamer.

RB Patrick Laird, MIA (Wk. 12: @Cle): You know you’re grasping at straws a bit if you’re considering the backup running back for the Dolphins for your lineup, but you have to figure the Dolphins are only going to put up with Kalen Ballage running for 2 yards per carry for so long before they decide to see what someone else can do. The player with the best chance to be that ‘someone else’ right now is Laird. Myles Gaskin was a more prolific runner in college and was the only one of the pair that was drafted, but the usage on Sunday made it clear that Laird is more likely to benefit than Gaskin if the Dolphins shift some of the work away from Ballage. He out-snapped Gaskin 16-7, and more importantly was the guy on the field during the hurry-up garbage time offense. He totaled 6 catches for 51, and although 4 of them came on the team’s final drive he showed enough that he should get some extended run this week. He was a prolific pass catcher in college with 96 receptions and 5 receiving TDs in his last 2 seasons at Cal, and he should get a chance to showcase that skill more going forward. With the numerous unavailable running backs this week, Laird is an interesting dart throw if you’re desperate for a fill-in RB in PPR leagues.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 12: @Cin.): I feel like Diontae should be held out of this week’s game just on principle after he suffered a concussion that left him BLEEDING FROM HIS EAR on Thursday, but it sounds like there is a real chance he clears the protocol in time for the game. If he plays, he has to at least be in consideration for a WR3/flex spot with JuJu Smith-Schuster likely out. The Bengals rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and Johnson would be the default number 1 or 2 receiver along with James Washington. Keep a close eye on the injury report, but Johnson is a sneaky streamer if he plays.

WR Scotty Miller, TB (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Miller jumped onto the fantasy radar with 7 targets in a game back in week 6 with Breshad Perriman sidelined, but he fell back into obscurity for a few weeks once Perriman returned (just 6 total targets in weeks 8, 9 and 10). In week 11 he resurfaced. Miller was on the field for 51% of the offensive snaps without a Perriman injury and managed to post 4-71 on 6 targets. It may feel like chasing points to consider Miller this week, but he gets to face an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 6^th-most WR PPR points per game and costs just $100 more than the minimum on DraftKings. The Falcons have struggled to defend the slot this year. 3 of the 4 100-yard receiving days they allowed were to players that play significant snaps in the slot (Michael Thomas, Tyler Lockett and Nelson Agholor). They also gave up 3-72 to Keke Coutee, 6-69 to Larry Fitzgerald and 8-65-1 to TY Hilton.

WR N’Keal Harry, NE (Wk. 12: vs. Dal.): Harry is worth looking at this week if you’re desperate for a WR in deeper leagues, and he’s worth a stash after seeing his usage in his NFL debut. Harry played almost an even split with Mohamed Sanu & Phillip Dorsett behind Julian Edelman and was tied for 3^rd on the team with 4 targets. It’s a really encouraging sign to see him so involved right away, and now Sanu is expected to miss multiple weeks with injury and Dorsett is questionable for week 12 with a concussion. The Cowboys are a tough matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but there should be plenty of opportunity for Harry if Dorsett is out. At just $3,300 on DraftKings, he’ll be a fun & inexpensive upside option in DFS tournaments. There will be more favorable matchups ahead to use Harry in later this season if he shows out in his extended opportunity this week (Houston, Kansas City, Cincinnati).

WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Det.): Keep an eye on Paul Richardson’s status for week 12. With Richardson out last week, Harmon was a near every-down player and found a nice rhythm with Dwayne Haskins. Harmon totaled 5-53 on 6 targets and gets to face a Detroit defense this week that allows the 10^th-most PPR points per game to WRs. At just $3,300 on DraftKings, he offers plenty of upside for DFS tournaments if Richardson is out again.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): Knox found the end zone for the first time since week 3 last Sunday and played his second highest snap share of the season. The targets left something to be desired, but Knox gets another favorable matchup this week. The tight end position is the best way to attack the Broncos. They’re a top-5 defense against QBs and WRs, and a top-12 defense against RBs. Tight end is the only position they are in the bottom half of the league at defending. Knox makes for a reasonable fill-in this week if you’re struggling for a tight end.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most folks, the fantasy season ended last week, but I know there are leagues out there that still hold their title games in week 17. Week 17 is a tough one to navigate for fantasy lineups. There are typically only a handful teams with anything to gain by winning. The keys to success are to identify those teams and identify the stud players who play for teams that have nothing to gain. If you can avoid those landmines you’ll have a much better shot of winning. I count 12 teams that potentially could improve their playoff position, and only half of those don’t need any help from other teams to do so. I’ll give you a quick rundown of which rookies have something to play for in case you have a championship this week, but most of the advice this week will have a decidedly DFS slant.  Let’s dive in…

Rookies to Start:

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 17: @NYG): The Eagles are expecting Jordan Howard to return this week, but Sanders is likely to continue as the lead back. As the Eagles’ pass catching corps has become the walking wounded, Sanders has seen his receiving usage increase. In the past 4 weeks, he’s had at least 4 catches and 5 targets in each game, and he’s found the end zone through the air in 2 of them. Even if Howard manages to siphon off a decent chunk of Sanders’ rushing attempts, the passing game usage will keep Miles as a solid RB2 with RB1 upside. The Giants surprisingly rank 8^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and Sanders is no worse than 3^rd in the Eagles’ current pass game pecking order. You’re banking on the upside if you use him in DFS lineups (I like him better for cash games than tournaments), but he should be fired up in season-long leagues.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 17: @Hou.): Brown’s lack of usage last week was a little alarming, but he still managed to put up 15.3 PPR points despite just one catch and one carry. He absolutely torched the Texans the last time he faced them (8-114-1 on 13 targets), and this week the Texans might not have anything to gain by winning. The Titans have everything to gain. A victory clinches them a spot in the playoffs. Brown should be heavily involved and can’t be left on your bench in season long leagues. The Texans rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t be as keen to pay the $7,000 DraftKings price tag, but he should be a fine WR2 this week.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 17: vs. SF): Metcalf managed to post a goose egg on just 1 target last week despite playing 98% of the offensive snaps in a game where Seattle threw 31 times. Don’t expect a repeat this week. Prior to week 16, DK had managed to post 11+ PPR points in 6 of the previous 7 games, and I like his odds to get back on track this week. Since the start of week 9, the 49ers have allowed 22.4 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs (only the Dolphins and Cardinals have allowed more than that per game on the year), and they’ve given up 15+ points in half PPR scoring to 4 wide receivers in the past 5 weeks (they allowed just 3 to reach 15 before that). Their elite defense has shown cracks, and I think Metcalf exploits them this weekend. He posted 6 catches for 70 yards on 10 targets in the first meeting with San Francisco, and he should be a solid WR3 in the rematch. Metcalf is a sneaky option in DFS showdown slates for the Sunday night game.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): This will be a must win game for the Eagles, but their pass defense has been an issue for much of the year. Philly has coughed up multiple passing scores in 3 of their last 4 games, and Jones flourished in his return to the lineup last Sunday as the overall QB1 for the week. Jones has thrown for multiple TDs in 3 of his last 4 starts, and 4+ in three of his last 6. Jones has been a solid starting option when his weapons are healthy and he has a real chance to be a QB1 again this week, although repeating as the QB1 seems highly unlikely.

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): The Raiders still have a shot at the playoffs with a win and a lot of help this weekend, but the Broncos have some positive momentum of their own and aren’t likely to roll over for Oakland. The Raiders have been abysmal defending the pass, allowing the 4^th-most QB points per game and allowing the 2^nd-highest passer rating to opposing QBs. Lock has played well through 4 starts outside of one poor performance against the Chiefs, and he is in a great spot for a strong game to close his rookie year. Lamar Jackson won’t play this week, and several other fantasy QBs like Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Kirk Cousins will be unplayable due to the chance they won’t play for long. Lock will be a high-end QB2 option with the upside for more and is reasonably priced on DraftKings at $5,800.

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 17: vs. Ind.): Leonard Fournette has been downgraded to doubtful for this week, and Armstead has been his handcuff all year. The Colts rank 21^st in run defense DVOA and Jacksonville is one of the few teams that doesn’t employ a committee. It’s a rare occurrence that you can get a locked-in starting running back for $4,400 on DraftKings. Armstead has shown an ability to catch the ball, so he won’t be limited to just rushing output. The Jaguars have been bad as a team of late, but Armstead has plenty of appeal in DFS lineups at that price tag.

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): With the Ravens locked into the AFC’s top seed, they have nothing to gain with a win in week 17. Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram will be sitting out entirely, and I would expect several other starters to not play the full game. The Steelers will be without James Conner again, so Snell will be thrust back into the early down grinder role once more. Baltimore has been stingy against the pass but ranks a middling 17^th in run defense DVOA. Snell’s lack of pass catching prowess hurts his fantasy upside, but he should be viewed as a reasonable RB3/flex play this week. He also costs just $4,500 on DraftKings.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Slayton was targeted just 3 times in week 15 against the Dolphins, then was sidelined by injury last week before recording his first catch in a game where Daniel Jones threw 5 touchdown passes. Slayton is on track to return this week and the Giants don’t really have reason to hold him back as they try to play spoiler to the Eagles. Philly has allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game, and Slayton may be the squeaky wheel that gets the grease this week. Keep an eye on the injury report to make sure that he plays and that he won’t be limited by the knee injury, but Slayton remains in play as a WR3 option this week. His price tag of $4,900 on DraftKings is really tempting in both cash games and DFS tournaments.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 17: @Sea.): The 49ers will be pulling out all of the stops to try and win this game. A victory means a week off, and a loss means a trip to Dallas or Philadelphia next weekend. The Seahawks are better attacked on the ground than through the air, ranking 26^th in run defense DVOA and 14^th in pass defense DVOA. Samuel has been productive with 6 games of 12 or more PPR points in his last 7, but his volume has been inconsistent. He’s averaged just 4.6 targets per game in the last 5 weeks. He’s managed to be productive with sporadic rushing attempts (7-89-1 in the past 4 weeks), but he’ll have to continue making good on limited opportunities to have a big day this week. He’s in play as a borderline WR3 option.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Johnson has managed to produce despite the game of musical quarterbacks being played between Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges, He’s put up at least 60 yards and been targeted 7+ times in each of the last 3 games, and the Ravens are likely to play their starters less than a full complement of snaps. Even JuJu’s return hasn’t slowed Johnson down. He’ll have Hodges throwing him the ball this week, but that shouldn’t keep him from posting a 4-60 type of line in this one, and possibly more.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): The Raiders allow the 8^th-most TE points per game. Fant’s snap count has dropped quite a bit with Jeff Heuerman back at full strength, but Fant has been the one getting the more useful fantasy targets. He’s still risky for regular lineups, but he’s an interesting in DFS lineups at just $3,600 on DraftKings and in a plus matchup.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 17: @LAR): It’s looking more and more likely that Murray is going to be sidelined this week with a hamstring injury and it will be Brett Hundley getting the nod instead. Even if Murray plays, the first meeting with the Rams was one of his worst games of the season and they rank 9^th in pass defense DVOA. Only a late rushing TD got him to double-digit fantasy points in that first meeting. Hundley wouldn’t be a great option this week either.

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 17: vs. Ind.): Minshew has had a number of plus matchups since getting back under center, but he’s failed to produce meaningful fantasy games. In the last 4 weeks he’s averaged 173 yards passing and 15.5 rushing yards per game and totaled just 5 touchdowns. The Jags are basically phoning it in to close out the year, and you can’t bank on them getting out of that funk in the season’s final week. This game is likely to feature a lot of Ryquell Armstead and Marlon Mack.

QB Will Grier, CAR (Wk. 17: vs. NO): Grier’s first NFL start was an unmitigated disaster against a below average pass defense. The offense managed to score just 6 points as Grier threw 3 interceptions and took 5 sacks. More than 50% of his passing yards went to Christian McCaffrey and he’s not going to have DJ Moore on the field this week. The Saints rank 13^th in pass defense DVOA. It’s all shaping up to be another rough week for Grier.

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Don’t get cute with Hodges. In his last 2 appearances he’s thrown 1 touchdown against 6 interceptions. The Ravens’ secondary might not be playing at full strength, but that’s not a reason to get crazy and consider Hodges in any format.

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 17: vs. GB): It’s likely you weren’t considering Blough in any format, and that is the correct approach. Blough has thrown just 2 touchdowns in the last 3 and a half games, and Green Bay ranks 11^th in pass defense DVOA. There is no reason to consider Blough in week 17. It may wind up as his final career start.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 17: @Min.): We’ve seen Monty come up small in big opportunities, and this week he faces a tough matchup. The Vikings rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. Montgomery has just been too consistently mediocre from a fantasy perspective to use him this week unless you’re desperate. Monty’s best hope is that Minnesota goes to their backup defense early on and he gets in the end zone. I’m not willing to count on that even at a price tag of just $5,100 on DraftKings.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): The Bills have absolutely nothing to gain from winning this weekend. They’re locked into the 5^th seed in the AFC playoffs. They have no incentive to put a critical player like Singletary in harm’s way. If he does get the start, I would be stunned if he plays into the second half. Josh Allen is also likely to have a short day if he plays at all. TJ Yeldon is the running back I’d expect to have the best fantasy day for Buffalo. His ability as a pass catcher gives him the edge over Frank Gore, especially with the Jets being stout against the run. New York ranks second in run defense DVOA.

RBs Patrick Laird & Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 17: @NE): The Patriots actually care about winning this game, and they’ve allowed the fewest RB PPR points per game. Laird and Gaskin have played a much more even split of the backfield snaps in the last two weeks, making both untrustworthy for fantasy purposes. If I had to pick one it would be Laird, but both are bad fantasy plays this week.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): With the 6^th seed already etched in stone for Minnesota, I’d expect Mike Boone and CJ Ham to handle most of the running back duties against Chicago. Mattison and Dalvin Cook might both end up inactive again. Even if they don’t, I wouldn’t expect either one to see a carry in the 2^nd half. The Bears will be playing for pride and for a .500 season, and despite their struggles still have one of the better defenses in the league. Boone is the option I’d look at if considering a cheap DFS play in this backfield.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): Brown has a questionable tag this week, and I can’t imagine he plays more than a few series even if he is active. The Ravens have nothing to gain by winning, so there shouldn’t be a lot of Brown, Mark Andrews or Willie Snead. There certainly won’t be enough of Brown to trust in fantasy lineups. Keep him sidelined.

WR N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Mia.): I’d like Meyers quite a bit this week if the Pats had already clinched a bye in the first round, but they haven’t. The Patriots need to win this week to secure the bye, and it’s been a guessing game in recent weeks as to which receivers will get the playing time. Julian Edelman is the only receiver on the team who has played 60% of the snaps or more 3 times in the last 4 games. Sanu seems to be back to a full-time role, but it always feels like that could change at a moment’s notice. The Dolphins are a great matchup for any offense to face, but there isn’t a lot of evidence pointing to Harry or Meyers being a good option this week.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 17: @NYG): I put my faith in JJ last week, and after posting 2-39 on the game’s opening drive he wasn’t targeted again. You’d think at some point the Eagles will have to start utilizing him more as the depth chart thins out, especially in a must-win game like this one. Zach Ertz has been ruled out for this game, so it’ll be Greg Ward, Dallas Goedert and the running backs aside from JJAW. The Giants are one of the worst pass defenses in the league, so there is upside in JJ at his meager $3,700 price tag on DraftKings, but I’ve been intrigued by him before and been burned. He’s not a player I’ll be taking a flyer on this week.

WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 17: @Dal.): Terry McLaurin may have been ruled out for this week already, but that won’t change the fact that Harmon is mainly a low-upside PPR option who just posted his best career game at 10.8 PPR points. Don’t buy in to upside for Harmon that just isn’t there for him right now. Dallas allows the 6^th-fewest WR PPR points per game. You should probably avoid Harmon this week.

WR Bisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): Johnson is likely to play a lot this week, but we’ve seen him do that with Thielen out and he only mustered sporadic production. The Bears allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and Johnson hasn’t reached 50 yards in any game all season. Don’t think of him as an upside DFS option just because he’s cheap and Diggs & Thielen are unlikely to play much.

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Smith bounced back in a big way last weekend with 2 touchdowns against Washington, but he is unlikely to have a strong follow up. The Eagles have allowed just 3 tight ends to reach 9 PPR points all season long, and just one since week 4. Philly has struggled to contain wide receivers but has been one of the best teams in the league at stopping the tight end position. I’d look elsewhere for upside DFS tight ends this week.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): Knox could get a boost from any extended Matt Barkley playing time. He caught 2 passes for 37 yards among Barkley’s 16 pass attempts in week 4. He costs just $2,700 on DraftKings, but the Jets allow the 4^th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. There are higher upside options to chase.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): With Mark Ingram sitting out, it’ll be Gus Edwards and Hill handling most of the rushing attempts. This should be the first real extended look we get at Hill all year. Hill posted 51 yards and a touchdown on 6 touches last week and should see his way to double-digit touches in this one. The Steelers boast a solid defense, but Hill’s speed makes him a home run threat at just about any time. He’s an inexpensive $4,600 on DraftKings. I’d only be thinking of him as an upside DFS tournament play.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 17: vs. Was.): Pollard has been a non-factor in most games where the Cowboys are trailing or playing close, but they’re a 12-point favorite this week against a Washington defense that allows the 3^rd-most RB PPR points per game. This is a prime spot for Pollard to have a big game and he costs just $4,000 on DraftKings. There’s a low floor, as evidenced by his negative point performance last week, but he’s a very interesting DFS Tournament play.

WR Steven Sims, WAS (Wk. 17: @Dal.): The matchup isn’t ideal, as I laid out with Kelvin Harmon above, but Sims has been heavily involved with 21 targets and 3 touchdowns in the last 2 weeks, and his DFS price hasn’t caught up with his production yet. With McLaurin out he should see close to double-digit targets again, and he’s a small, speedy receiver who should see a couple deep targets from Case Keenum. He’s not exactly a safe play, but he has a great chance to outproduce his $4,700 price tag on DraftKings.

WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. Pit.): Like Justice Hill, Boykin should get a chance to shine as the guys ahead of him on the depth chart get a light week to keep them healthy for the playoffs. Boykin has turned 3 of his 13 catches on the year into touchdowns, and he costs just the minimum on DraftKings. He’s a TD dart throw for DFS tournaments with the upside to be more. With the Steelers favored by a couple points, the Ravens may throw a little more than they typically do.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 17: vs. Chi.): The majority of the practice snaps this week for Minnesota tight ends have gone to backups Smith and Tyler Conklin. I’d be surprised if Kyle Rudolph doesn’t play a diminished role with nothing at stake for the Vikings, and the Bears allow the 6^th-most TE points per game. Smith costs just $2,800 on DraftKings and may very well lead the Vikings in receiving this week. He’s a worthwhile option in DFS tournaments.

That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

1,250 Receiving Yards

The leader in receiving yards this season currently sits at 1,250 yards and it’s not even a wide receiver. Travis Kelce is your league leader in receiving yards, and he’s currently sitting 70 yards above the next closest player, DK Metcalf, who leads all wide receivers with 1,180 yards. Kelce’s dominance is incredible at the TE position, where he truly has no equal this season. He has finished the week as the top TE 5 times this year. He has nearly 60 more points than the second highest scoring TE this year, Darren Waller, and could probably not play another snap this year and still easily finish as the TE1 for 2020. You can combine the TE6 and TE7’s points on the year and still not reach Kelce’s 222.16 total points. Kelce is the 6^th highest scoring non-QB on the season, ahead of all but 3 RBs and 2 WRs – all of whom have at least 5 more touchdowns than he does. Kelce has 6 games this year where he’s scored 20+ points, and another 5 of them where he has at least double digit points. This is shaping up to be a top 3 all-time fantasy season for a TE, with 3 full games left to play, he’s got a real shot at beating the 3^rd best season, his own 2018 season where he scored 245.1 points, and he’s on pace to pass Jimmy Graham’s 2^nd place season in 2013 where he scored 260.5. Rob Gronkowski’s top spot could fall if Kelce has a few good games, he has the all-time record of 285.9 points from the 2011 season.

6.3% Difference in Points

The top tier of quarterbacks is as crowded as it’s ever been. There are 5 quarterbacks at the top of the heap with only a 6.3% difference between the QB1, Kyler Murray (336.44) and QB5, Josh Allen (315.34). The other QBs filling out tier 1 are Patrick Mahomes (334.32), Russell Wilson (321.7) and Aaron Rodgers (317.3). This top play has made the season very enjoyable to watch and also means that the MVP race is wide open. Early in the season, it was Wilson’s to lose. Then Kyler took over, but has had a poor 4 game stretch recently where his team went only 1-3. Recently, the talk has been all about Mahomes, but he just threw 3 picks yesterday, leading us to bring Aaron Rodgers into the conversation. Both of those two, by the way, have won the award before. So, what will the rest of the season bring us? Will Josh Allen be able to lead his team to 3 more victories to close the season and enter the conversation? All I know is that it’s very likely to be one of these top QBs, because this is real life, not fantasy football, where a non-QB like Dalvin Cook (averaging 23 points per game) or Derrick Henry (who has just one game finishing in the 20’s and 3 games with 35+ points) is the real MVP.

1,035 Rushing Yards

While we’re talking about end of season awards, let me bring up a name I have not heard mentioned yet. James Robinson for offensive rookie of the year. This is probably a very hard award to win when you are on a 1-win team, but let’s look at the rest of the field. Traditionally a QB would win, but Joe Burrow was injured too soon and Tua Tagovailoa started too late in the year. Justin Herbert was leading the way for a while, but he is only 3-9 this season and has put together his last 3 games with only 3 TDs, 5 INTs and 7 sacks, including that ugly shutout to the Patriots in week 13. Chase Claypool has slowed his torrid TD pace after scoring 8 times between weeks 2 and 11. Jonathan Taylor is getting going too late, Antonio Gibson’s injury eliminated him before he could even reach 1,000 yards from scrimmage and Justin Jefferson is on a sub .500 team and is arguably not even the best WR on his own team. This leaves us with James Robinson, who is not the one left over, but truly the one leading the pack, he’s just been hiding away in Jacksonville. Robinson reached the 1,000 rush yards mark in only 13 games, the fastest that an undrafted free agent rookie has ever gotten there. He’s only the 4^th UDFA rookie to rush for 1,000 yards. He also has 46 receptions for 326 yards and has 9 total touchdowns. He is 4^th in the league in yards from scrimmage and a serious candidate to be the first ever UDFA to win offensive rookie of the year honors.

7 Rookie QBs with Starts in 2020

Continuing the rookie discussion, this season is the fifth in a row where at least 6 rookie QBs have found themselves starting a game. Jalen Hurts’ start, and win, in Philly over the Saints marks him as the 7^th rookie this year to start a game. Hurts’ win against New Orleans was very impressive for a few reasons, mainly because the lowly Eagles took down the top seed in the NFC, but also because both Hurts and Miles Sanders rushed for over 100 yards, something that nobody has done all season against the Saints (or even in their last 50 games). Overall, the 2020 QB class has been a mixed bag at best. With Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa only playing about half a season each, Jalen Hurts getting a start very late in the year and Justin Herbert standing out among the group, only to go 3-9, it’s no wonder we’ve forgotten some of the other rookie QBs. Want to guess? I’ll give you a moment…

0 Offensive Points from the 1^st Place Football Team

What some might describe as “truly 2020” I might just chalk up as being purely NFL Least this season. The Washington “Not Sure If We’re A” Football Team scored exactly zero points with their offense on the field on Sunday while assuming sole possession of first place in their division. Washington managed to kick 3 field goals and scored two defensive touchdowns in their 25-15 victory over the reigning NFC champs, the San Francisco 49ers. The Football Team (must I capitalize them both?) managed a pitiful 108 yards passing between Alex Smith and Dwayne Haskins combined, and only 98 rushing yards, thanks in part to Haskins’ 4 carries for -12 yards which brought them back below the century mark. In a game that set NFL football back 10 years, the fantasy scoring for Washington was led first by their D/ST, then by their kicker, Nick Mullens. At least the 49ers had a QB and WR in double digits to avoid further embarrassment in this column.