Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

15 Passing TD's

Through 6 games, Texans rookie and frequent source of material for this column, Deshaun Watson has thrown 15 passing touchdowns, not to mention the two he's gotten via rushing. This total matches the 2016 Houston Texans entire season. Having the exact same receiving core makes this even more impressive, though you could argue that there are fewer weapons this season, with all their TE's injured. Watson has been beyond impressive and is set to crush all the rookie passing records and turn in the best rookie QB season ever, passing guys like Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Ben Roethlisberger and Dan Marino. This hype train could roll all the way to Canton.

3 Points or Less

The San Francisco 49ers have lost their last 5 games by 3 points or less, a feat that is so rare it makes you think they should play the lottery, or perhaps, whatever is the opposite of the lottery. Yesterday even saw the benching of Brian Hoyer, destroyer of his own teams, for C.J. Beathard. Beathard, of course, is the grandson of Bobby Beathard, former NFL GM. Why the team calling the game had to announce this every 5 minutes is beyond me, but clearly it's important and must be repeated as often as possible. C.J. Beathard will soon be known as the guy who gets benched for whoever the 49ers sign next season (Kirk Cousins, anybody?).

25.40 Fantasy Points

No more old man jokes for the Purple Jesus (just blasphemous ones, please). Adrian Peterson was his old self, racking up 134 yards and two touchdowns against the Bucs on Sunday. Who needs to catch the ball when you have Larry Fitzgerald doing all that for you. Peterson averaged 5.2 yards per carry and was explosive from the very start of the game, putting up more yards on the opening drive than the Cardinals averaged all season. The 160 yards the Cardinals got on the ground yesterday is only 99 short of their season total going into that game. Did Larry Fitzgerald and Adrian Peterson just become best friends?

25+ Fantasy Points

Move over Quarterbacks, the Running Backs are once again dominating the fantasy football scoreboard. Sure, Kirk Cousins led the way with 28.8, but the next 4 highest scoring players were RB's, and some familiar high draft picks as well. Melvin Gordon, Adrian Peterson, Le'Veon Bell and Mark Ingram all scored at least 25 points AND each had at least 25 carries. Maybe the talent available at this position is dictating a return to the bell cow back. I for one, welcome the return of the workhorse RB to fantasy football. There were 11 RB's that saw at least 20 touches in Week 6, led by Jordan Howard's 36 carries and 1 reception. As we head into fall and bad weather football, I expect to see even more work for running backs.

2.77 Inches per Carry

Thursday night was a rough one for the Carolina Panthers, and their running backs in particular. With 13 total carries, Christian McCaffrey, Fozzy Whittaker and Jonathan Stewart netted only 1 yard, good for an average of 2.77 inches per carry. A less classy organization might make lewd jokes about proudly carrying 2.77 inches, or letting the running game grow and not necessarily letting it show, but not us. No sir, I don't care what kind of flaccid running game you bring to Thursday night football, we won't make you the butt of the joke at the end of an article. Not us here at drinkfive, we have way more class than that. Or not. Penis.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve now passed the halfway point of the regular season. Hopefully your teams are doing pretty well, because things are about to get a little dicey in the next 2 weeks. There are 6 teams off each week, the most we’ll see in any weeks this year. It’s going to create some holes in your lineups, and finding the right guys to fill those gaps will be critical. At least a few rookies may be peaking at the right time to help out. OJ Howard was the TE1 last weekend. David Njoku had the longest catch of his career so far. Aaron Jones clearly took over as the lead back in Green Bay, and Marlon Mack out-snapped Frank Gore for the first time this year. There are plenty of other rookies who are poised to play bigger roles as the season wears on like Corey Davis (pick him up this week if you have the roster spot to do it), Kenny Golladay, Austin Ekeler and John Ross among others. Let’s dive in and discuss what to expect for week 8…

Rookies to Start:

RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 8: vs. Den.): Denver has allowed the 2nd-fewest RB points per game (all scoring stats in PPR scoring unless otherwise noted) and ranks 1^st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and Hunt hasn’t finished higher than the RB10 in the past 4 weeks despite a couple of good matchups. You still have to start him. He’s been at least an RB2 every week, and the daunting matchup isn’t enough to make me act crazy and bench him. He’s a contrarian play for DFS tournaments this week.

RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Ind.): The Colts were stingy against the run to start the year, allowing just 67 RB rush yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry in the first 3 weeks. They’ve allowed 136.5 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry since. Mixon voiced some displeasure after last week’s game about getting zero carries in the 2^nd half after piling up 48 yards on 7 first half carries. Head Coach Marvin Lewis called the comments immature, but I think he got the message. Even if he didn’t, with the Bengals a 10-point favorite in this game, they might not have any choice but to run in the 2^nd half. The Colts have coughed up the 2nd-most RB points per game so far, and I expect Mixon to still be the lead back despite the Lewis’s comments. Mixon has RB1 upside this week and should be a staple in DFS lineups at just $4,700 in DraftKings.

RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): While the biggest beneficiary of the Saints’ Adrian Peterson trade has been Mark Ingram, it’s also given a boost to Kamara. He’s played 42% and 49% of the snaps in the two games since Peterson was jettisoned, the highest rates since he cracked 50% in week 1. He’s put up 87 scrimmage yards on 13 touches and 107 scrimmage yards on 14 touches in those two games. Kamara has now scored double-digit points in PPR formats in 4 straight games, and what’s been most impressive is the ability he’s shown as a runner. His receiving upside could be somewhat limited by the Bears, who have allowed the 6^th-fewest RB receiving yards in the league, but I don’t expect that to hold him back. The Bears rank 16^th in run defense DVOA, have been banged up at linebacker (Willie Young and Jerrell Freeman on IR), and the Saints are a 9-point favorite this week. The positive game script and decent matchup should make Kamara a solid RB2 this weekend.

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 8: @TB): Another NFL week, another week where McCaffrey looks to be a solid RB2, but he may have some upside for more this week. The Bucs have really been scuffling against RBs in the past 3 weeks. They’ve allowed 28.9 points per game to running backs in the past 3, which would be 3rd-most in the league if they averaged that for the year. Tampa Bay has been more vulnerable in the red zone to running backs running the ball rather than catching it out of the backfield, allowing 5 rushing TDs to backs compared to just 1 receiving score, but they’ve still allowed 6 catches and 45.5 receiving yards per game to them. Tampa ranks in the bottom half of the league in receiving points allowed to RBs per game. That’s should suit McCaffrey just fine. CMC has established himself as the lead back for the Panthers after playing 74% of the offensive snaps last week compared to 39% for J-Stew, and he may finally hit that ceiling we’ve all been waiting for. It should be a great week to fire up McCaffrey, and he’ll be could be a nice piece in DFS lineups if he makes good on his potential in this plus matchup.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Deshaun Watson, HOU (Wk. 8: @Sea.): Watson has been a tremendous fantasy QB so far, but this week he gets his toughest test to-date. If you are in a 1-QB league, I would certainly be considering other options if decent ones are available. No quarterback has scored 20 points against the Seahawks this year, and only Aaron Rodgers and Marcus Mariota have topped 10. Seattle allows the 4th-fewest QB points per game, ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA, and has allowed the 2^nd-lowest QB rating against. Watson’s rushing ability adds a little bit of a boost to his floor, but this isn’t a great spot to trot him out there. Watson is averaging nearly 23 fantasy points per game, so it isn’t like he’s going to suddenly be held to 5 points. He’s still a fine play in 2-QB formats. I’m just pointing out that he’s far from an automatic start in 1-QB formats thanks to the difficult matchup.

RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 8: @NO): With so many running backs on bye this week, Cohen is worth considering, especially if Benny Cunningham sits again. Cohen only played 18% of the snaps last weekend and handled just 1 touch (a 70-yard reception), but the game script worked against him. The Bears were ahead for much of that game. I’d expect a reversal of fortunes this week against the red-hot Saints. New Orleans has allowed the most RB catches per game and most RB receiving yards per game, and that’s where Cohen’s bread is buttered. The Bears will still likely try and limit Trubisky’s passing volume, but there might not be any way to avoid throwing when they fall behind. Cohen is back in play as a PPR flex option.

RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 8: @Cin.): It was exciting for Mack owners to see him out-snap Frank Gore for the first time last weekend, but much of that had to do with game script. The Colts trailed 14-0 in the first quarter, and never got themselves into the game. The good news for Mack: This week’s game script is likely to set up the same way. The Bengals haven’t played great so far, but even they are a 10-point favorite this week. Gore will still factor in here and the Bengals have allowed the 12^th-fewest RB points per game, so it isn’t all roses for Mack, but Cincy also allows 6.5 receptions per game to running backs. With the limited slate of games, Mack is certainly in play as a flex option, and an enticing DFS tournament play at just $4,000 in DraftKings.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 8: @Det.): I can’t imagine all of the Martavis drama results in more playing time from Bryant, and at least for week 8 it’s got him benched completely. JuJu was already an intriguing option this week before the announcement came about Martavis. There was some worry about JuJu being in the concussion protocol, but he practiced in full Wednesday. With Bryant out, JJSS may get to move to the outside a bit and will likely avoid both Quandre Diggs and Darius Slay, who have been Detroit’s two best corners. The Lions allow the 11th-most WR points per game. Smith-Schuster has a great opportunity to post a WR3 game this week.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Golladay is back at practice this week and should be good to go for Sunday night. Golden Tate is expected to miss this game (monitor the situation, Tate got in a limited practice Wed.), and the Lions are going to need someone to pick up the slack of the 8 targets per game that he averages. The Steelers have allowed the fewest WR points per game, but among the teams they’ve played, only Cleveland throws the ball nearly as much as Detroit does, and the Browns don’t really have a QB or WRs. The Browns throw it on 63.97% of their offensive plays, while the Lions throw on 63.43%. No other Pittsburgh opponent throws even 59% of the time. If Tate does sit, the volume should be there for Golladay to be an upside flex option in a week with so many byes. He’s worth grabbing as a fallback if you’re waiting on the status of another WR who’s questionable to suit up.

TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Kittle was targeted just twice in a 30-point loss to the Cowboys last week in which CJ Beathard threw 38 times. I believed in the Iowa connection, but those results weren’t promising. I still might be willing to go back to the well this week. The Eagles aren’t exactly a great matchup for TEs, or at least they weren’t. With the injury to Jordan Hicks, that may change. Hicks had a 90.0 coverage grade from Pro Football Focus last year and was at 71.5 so far this season. The Eagles were shredded by Jordan Reed after the injury occurred on Monday. Of course Kittle isn’t Reed, but I like his chances at a bounce back in another game where the 49ers should be throwing a ton. He’s a decent streamer option or bye week filler for deeper leagues.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 8: @NO): The Bears have been running the ball on 68.9% of their offensive snaps with Trubisky as starter (per PFF’s Scott Barrett), and he’s attempted 23 passes in the past 2 weeks combined. They’re likely to have to throw a bit more to keep pace with New Orleans, but the Saints have actually been pretty stingy to opposing QBs during their 4-game win streak. They’ve allowed just 10.2 fantasy points per game and 187 passing yards per game to opposing QBs in that 4-game span. Couple that with the fact the Bears will still try to limit his volume, and it’s easy to see Trubisky should be avoided this week.

QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): The Browns have decided to go back to Kizer once again this week, but the in-game benchings can’t be good for this kid’s development. He gets a brutal matchup this week across the pond against a Viking defense that has allowed the 5^th-fewest QB points per game. I’d expect more of the same from Kizer in this one – turnovers. He’s failed to reach 4 fantasy points in each of his last 3 starts, and I wouldn’t be stunned if that happens again Sunday.

RB D’Onta Foreman, HOU (Wk. 8: @Sea.): Foreman has 3 games this season with 12 or more carries, but all 3 were wins, and 2 were blowouts. He has 13 carries combined in the Texans’ 3 losses. Seattle is a 6-point favorite and allows the 4^th-fewest running back points per game. You have to pick your spots with a lower volume player like Foreman, and this isn’t a good spot to use him.

RB Matt Brieda, SF (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Brieda has played just 32 offensive snaps and handled 9 touches total in the past 2 weeks after Kyle Shanahan proclaimed that he is on equal footing with Carlos Hyde. They may be showcasing Hyde for a trade, but as long as Carlos is on the roster it’ll be hard to trust Brieda. His limited role certainly isn’t a recipe for fantasy success against an Eagles team that allows the 8^th-fewest running back points per game.

RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): With Bilal Powell and Matt Forte both healthy last weekend, McGuire played just 7 offensive snaps and saw just 3 touches. He’ll go back into obscurity for now until one of those top 2 backs comes down with another ailment or the Jets nosedive out of playoff contention. We know they aren’t going to the playoffs, but at the moment they are just a game and a half out of the last wild card spot.

RB Samaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Perine played zero offensive snaps last week, yet somehow has a higher price tag in DraftKings than teammate Rob Kelley, who starts. That is absurd to me. Avoid Perine in all formats.

WR Trent Taylor, SF (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Taylor showed a connection with QB CJ Beathard last week with 5 catches, and the Eagles have been torched by slot WRs Sterling Shepard and Keenan Allen (runs about 55% of snaps from slot), but those guys were outliers. Outside of those two weeks, the Eagles have actually defended the slot pretty well, and Taylor is nowhere near as good as Shep or Allen. Taylor probably shouldn’t be a consideration for your lineup.

WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 8: @NE): Williams draws a great matchup with the Pats allowing the 3^rd-most WR points per game, but Williams played just 24% of the snaps last week and was targeted only twice. He’s essentially splitting WR3 reps with Travis Benjamin, which puts a pretty big damper on his upside. Hopefully that will change in the coming weeks, but I can’t make a compelling argument for why you should expect it to change this week. There’s upside here, but also a floor of zero points that seems more likely than him making good on that upside.

WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. Oak.): Zay was targeted a season-high 9 times last Sunday, and he caught just 2 of them for 17 yards. He now had 7 catches for 83 yards on the season on 32 targets. His inefficiency and 22% catch rate are quickly becoming the stuff of legend. I wonder how much longer the Bills can keep forcing that kind of volume his way. There’s no reason to expect a positive change this week.

WR John Ross, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Ind.): It’s really disappointing that Ross didn’t manage to get healthy for last week’s game and get some reps in. You can’t throw him into lineups without seeing what his usage is going to look like first, but this would’ve been a great spot for him. Ross has exceptional deep speed and the Colts have allowed 40 passes of 20 or more yards this season. While it’s a bummer for Ross that he won’t be up to speed for this one, AJ Green may be the premiere WR play of the week.

TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): I would actually like Njoku as a sleeper this week if Cody Kessler had gotten the starting nod. Njoku’s snap rates are still troubling, as he played under 40% of the offensive snaps last week, but Kessler seemed to seek him out. 4 of Kessler’s 19 pass attempts went in Njoku’s direction, and he hauled in 2 of them for 31- and 27-yard gains. They were the two longest catches of his young career. Minnesota is right square in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending tight ends (16^th-most points allowed per game), but they rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the position. There would be a case to be made for Njoku in deep enough leagues if Kessler were back under center.

TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Don’t chase last week’s points with Howard. Hopefully the increased targets are a sign of things to come for him, but Cameron Brate still ran more pass routes and was targeted more often last Sunday. 47% of Howard’s PPR production has come on 2 TDs against broken coverages where the defense let him get wide open. It’s hard to bank on that happening again this week, especially with the Panthers allowing the 7^th-fewest tight end points per game.

Rookies on Byes: RB Leonard Fournette, JAX, RB Aaron Jones, GB, RB Wayne Gallman, NYG, WR Corey Davis, TEN, WR Taywan Taylor, TEN, WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, TE Evan Engram, NYG, TE Jonnu Smith, TEN

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB CJ Beathard, SF (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Beathard didn’t exactly set the world on fire in a favorable matchup last week, but he did manage to tally 14.4 fantasy points thanks to a garbage time rushing TD, and he gets a favorable draw again this week. Philly has been allowing a lot of garbage time passing stats this year. They’ve been ahead entering the 4^th quarter in all 6 games they’ve won, and had a 2-score advantage in 3 of them. I’d expect them to be up double-digits entering the 4^th this week. There should be plenty of time for Beathard to pad stats. Philly allows the 4^th-most passing yards and 9^th-most QB fantasy points per game. CJ is an intriguing streamer in 2-QB formats thanks to the byes.

RB Austin Ekeler, LAC (Wk. 8: @NE): Ekeler found his way to a surprising 11 touches last week and was pretty effective with them, finishing as the PPR RB13 for the week. This may be point chasing, but he might be in play for you if you’re scrambling for a running back in deep PPR leagues. The Patriots have allowed the 5th-most RB points per game and the 2^nd-most receptions and receiving yards to backs. The bulk of that will go to Melvin Gordon, but Ekeler clearly has established a role.

RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Clement may get a chance to pile up garbage time carries in a game where the Iggles are 13-point favorites. The 49ers allow the most running back points per game in the league, and they just let Rod Smith find his way to be the RB35 last week without even finding the end zone. That was with just 2 teams on bye. There are 6 this week. Clement’s usage makes him no more than a DFS tournament punt play this week. He was on the field for just 12 offensive snaps on Monday night.

WR Mack Hollins, PHI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Hollins is a guy worth stashing in dynasty leagues. The Eagles have been raving about him since training camp, and for the season he’s been targeted 6 times, and has a 6-134-1 line to show for it. It’s only a matter of time before he overtakes Torrey Smith and starts to get more playing time. Smith signed a 3-year contract with Philly last offseason, but the last 2 years are both club options. Also worth noting: Alshon Jeffrey signed just a 1-year deal with Philadelphia. Hollins should be a prominent part of the passing game next year, one way or another.

WR Tanner Gentry, CHI (Wk. 8: @NO): The Bears passing volume has been a bit of a joke the past couple weeks, but Gentry has been on the field for 109 out of a possible 118 offensive snaps in the past 2 weeks. He only has one catch to show for all of that playing time, but that’s due to there being just 12 passing completions in those games. I’d expect quite a bit more volume against the high-powered Saints. New Orleans allows the 9th-most WR points per game. Gentry has displayed big play ability (had a 45-yard TD catch in preseason), and the Saints have allowed the 4^th-most pass plays of 20 or more yards. Gentry could surprise this week as a DFS punt option. The Bears did just acquire Dontrelle Inman on Wednesday, so the snap share could be a bit in jeopardy for Tanner, but I don’t expect Dontrelle to be fully up to speed by Sunday.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps with your tough lineup decisions. If you see two players at the same position with the same designation, the one listed first is the one I like better this week. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports throughout the week and always do a final check before kickoff to make sure your guys are active. If you want to yell at me about anything above or have any questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully, the bye weeks didn’t hit you too hard last week. If you’re lucky you had Deshaun Watson or one of his two WRs to help you get through. The Texans may have come up short against Seattle, but Watson shredded one of the league’s better defenses. He just might be matchup-proof going forward. A few other rookies had stellar performances as well. JuJu Smith-Schuster has cemented himself as the #1 rookie WR for 2017 after posting 32.3 PPR points in prime time Sunday night with Martavis Bryant sitting. Josh Malone grabbed his first career catches and scored his first TD on Sunday for Cincinnati. I wouldn’t expect him to have a big role moving forward though. It was a lower scoring week for RBs, but Alvin Kamara, Matt Breida, and Marlon Mack all turned in quality performances. Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon and Kareem Hunt were less impressive this week but still posted respectable days as well. There are another 6 teams on bye in week 9, so this could be another one where your lineup is a patchwork that could be pieced together by a couple rookies. With that in mind, let’s dive in and see what’s in store for the rookie crop this week…

(A couple notes: All point totals or points per game stats are based on PPR scoring, and players within the same position and same header are listed in order that I would play them):

Rookies to Start:

QB Deshaun Watson, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): The matchup is a juicy one for Watson this week. The Colts have allowed 300+ passing yards in 5 of their 8 games (and 295 in one of the other 3), and they’ve allowed at least one passing TD each week as well. Watson has been the QB1 or QB2 overall in each of his past 4 starts. Indy has allowed 10 more passes of 20+ yards than any other team in the league, and the Texans are tied for the 5^th-most 20+ yard pass plays on offense. Watson is an easy top-5 option this week (probably higher). He’s really pricey in DFS this week, checking in at $800 more than any other QB in DraftKings and $1,100 more than any other in FanDuel. At those prices, I might look at other options in GPP tournaments, but if he hits his ceiling once again you’ll regret not having him in there. He should be chalk in cash games.

RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 9: @Dal.): Hunt is a great bet to get back on track this week. The Denver defense was a daunting matchup on Monday night, and it resulted in Hunt’s worst game to-date. The Cowboys aren’t nearly as daunting. Dallas allows the 13^th-most RB points per game and ranked 31^st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat before facing Washington’s hapless rushing attack in week 8. It’ll be hard to trust Hunt at his price tag in DFS tournaments after he failed to return value in plus matchups with Pittsburgh & Oakland, but he should be a great option in cash games and locked in as your RB1 in regular lineups. He’s overdue for a big game.

RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Cin.): He’s had two weeks off with the bye to recover from his ankle injury, so he should be ready to roll this week. The Bengals have allowed 24+ PPR points to opposing RBs in 3 of their last 4 games, and when healthy Fournette handles the vast majority of the backfield touches. He should return to RB1 status this week. He might even have less competition for goal-line work if the Jaguars decide to make TJ Yeldon active instead of Chris Ivory this week. Yeldon flashed in a big way during Fournette’s week 7 absence. Prior to week 7, Fournette had handled 16 red zone carries, and Ivory had handled 4. Regardless of who suits up as LF’s number 2, he should be in your lineup this week.

RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 9: vs. TB): Tampa Bay has allowed the 10^th-most RB points per game this season, and Kamara has been the RB22, RB12, and RB9 in the 3 games since Adrian Peterson was traded to Arizona. He’s been outscored by Mark Ingram each week, but he’s closed the gap in the snap count in each of the last 3 weeks and topped 50% of the snaps in week 8 for the first time since week 1. He actually played the same number of offensive snaps as Ingram against the Bears. We’ve seen there’s clearly enough volume in this offense to support two starting fantasy backs, but Kamara’s role continues to grow. The matchup this week isn’t a scary one, so Kamara should be fired up once again as a solid RB2 with upside for more.

RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 9: @Jax.): Mixon’s game was salvaged by a long screen pass last week but was otherwise a lackluster showing. He put up just 18 yards on 11 carries on the ground. I’d still go back to the well with Mixon this week. The Jaguars rank 32^nd in run defense DVOA, and still allow the most rushing yards per game (138.6) and highest yards per carry average in the league (5.2). Things may get better up front for Jacksonville with the acquisition on Marcell Dareus, but I doubt he has that big of an impact this week. Mixon hasn’t really shown the ceiling yet, but I’m in on him as an RB2 for week 9. He’s still underpriced on DraftKings at $5,100 this week.

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. Atl.): With the surprising trade of Kelvin Benjamin to the Bills there are more passing targets to go around for Carolina. Atlanta has allowed the most RB receptions per game through the first 8 weeks, and McCaffrey has 6 more catches than any other RB thus far. Even without much rushing production, McCaffrey should be a safe RB2 in PPR formats, and a dicey flex in standard leagues. The Falcons don’t give up a ton of yards on all of those RB catches, so I’d probably shy away in DFS lineups.

RB Aaron Jones, GB (Wk. 9: vs. Det.): The matchup doesn’t really qualify as good or bad this week for Jones. The Lions have allowed the 7^th-fewest rushing yards per game, but also the 12^th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Jones seems to have a firm grasp on the lead back role after playing 80% of the snaps against the Saints before the week 8 bye, and the game plan figures to be run-heavy with Brett Hundley at the helm. Volume alone should get Jones into RB2 range, but you always worry about Ty Montgomery lurking over his shoulder.

TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): The Rams have been tough on tight ends so far this season, allowing the 4th-fewest TE points per game, but Engram has been the focal point of the Giants’ passing attack since the receiver group was decimated by injuries. He’s seen at least 7 targets in 5 of 7 games, and has seen 19 total in the past 2 games since Beckham, Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard were all injured against the Chargers. He’s made good on that volume, finishing as the TE3 and TE4 in those contests. He’s a top-5 option again this week despite a tougher draw and the likely return of Shepard.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 9: @Hou.): Mack out-snapped and outscored Frank Gore for the 2^nd time in as many weeks last Sunday. The Colts are huge underdogs again this weekend, and Mack has been targeted 11 times in the past 2 games. I’d expect more of the same usage this week. The Texans have been stingy to opposing backs, allowing the 2^nd fewest fantasy points per game to the position, but they have given up 3 receiving TDs to RBs. Mack is a sneaky flex play in PPR and half-PPR leagues, and a better option than Gore again this week.

WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 9: @NYG): The suspension of Janoris Jenkins could be a good thing for Kupp this week. While on the surface, it seems to be a plus for Sammy Watkins, who Jenkins would likely be covering all day, the suspension also gets Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie out of the slot where Kupp lines up most often. DRC has allowed an average of just 2.5 catches and 29.5 yards per game into his coverage, and has coughed up just one TD. It will benefit Kupp to not have to face him. I wouldn’t expect a huge bump in targets for Kupp, but he should be fairly efficient with them, and he’s the best bet to score a TD among the Rams WRs. Goff trusts him in the red zone. That keeps him in play as a PPR flex or WR3 option.

TE Jonnu Smith, TEN (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Obviously, Jonnu shouldn’t be in your lineup if Delanie Walker plays, but it sounds like Walker’s status is in doubt as he deals with a bone bruise on his ankle. He may very well play, but he was spotted in a walking boot just last week and isn’t practicing as of Wednesday. The Ravens have allowed 6 TDs to opposing tight ends in 8 games, and Walker is averaging 7 targets per game. If Delanie is held out, Jonnu is a fine streaming option for deeper leagues. He wouldn’t automatically see the same target share Delanie has been seeing, but 4-6 targets would be a reasonable expectation.

Rookies to Sit:

QB CJ Beathard, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Despite the Cardinals allowing the 3^rd-most QB points per game, Beathard has shown that you shouldn’t really trust him even in great matchups. It’s a messy week in 2-QB leagues this week with the 6 byes, so you might be forced to go with Beathard. There is some solace to be had in the fact that he’s topped 10 points each week, but not much. He’s no more than a desperation QB2 if you have just about no other options. I wouldn’t go near him in DFS lineups.

RB Matt Breida, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): The Cardinals are allowing the 10^th-fewest RB points per game, and despite his TD last week, Breida has still averaged just 6 touches per game in the past 3 weeks. The 32% of the snaps he played last week was the highest he saw in those 3 games, but the matchup this week is too tough to expect Breida to make hay on that limited of a snap count.

RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. Den.): Although the Eagles are again a comfortable favorite, I don’t see Clement piling up 10 garbage time carries again this week. Even if he does, I’d be stunned if he manages to top 50 yards again. He goes from facing the defense that allows the most RB points per game last week to the one that allows the fewest this week. It’s not a recipe for success for a part-time player like Clement.

WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Davis should return this week from the ankle injury that’s sidelined him since week 2, but I’m not quite ready to throw him into the fire in fantasy lineups. He may be eased back in, and he gets a gauntlet the first few weeks back. The Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers all rank in the top-5 in the league at limiting WR fantasy points. If you have the space to stash him, his schedule opens up a ton after that. The following 4 opponents after the AFC North stretch all rank in the bottom 13, including the dumpster fires that are the Colts and 49ers. There are better days ahead for Davis, but you should exercise caution with him for now.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 9: @GB): Golladay does return to a good matchup if he’s able to get back on the field this week, but he’ll be little more than a TD dart throw. He may struggle to keep up with the Joneses (Marvin and TJ), who have both played well while Kenny was sidelined. TJ has likely earned a split of the WR3 reps with Golladay, so it would be best to take a wait-and-see approach before putting Babytron back into lineups.

WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 9: @NYJ): Zay finally had a reasonably efficient game last weekend with 3 catches on 5 targets for 32 yards. It’s not a week you can use for fantasy purposes, as he was just the WR46 for the week in PPR scoring, but it’s something for him to build on. At least, it would have been if the Bills didn’t go out and trade for Kelvin Benjamin. He may get one more chance to showcase what he can do this week since KB was acquired 2 days before this week’s tilt with the Jets, but there’s no reason to try him in your lineup. He’s droppable even in deep redraft leagues since his targets will likely be cut in half the rest of the way.

WR Dede Westbrook, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Cin.): Dede might be worth stashing in deeper leagues, and should certainly be owned in dynasty formats, but this is probably not the best week to use him. The Bengals allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and the Jaguars attempt the 3rd-fewest passes per game. Since Jacksonville is a 4-point favorite this week, I don’t see them having to deviate much from their run-heavy game plan in this one. Keep an eye on Westbrook’s usage, but keep him out of the lineup.

TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Kittle has shown pretty clearly in the past 2 weeks that the Iowa connection hasn’t carried over to the NFL level. Arizona is a tougher matchup on tight ends than the Eagles were, and Philly held Kittle to 2-22 on 4 targets. Kittle has seen just 6 targets in 2 games with Beathard as the starter after getting 7 targets from him in week 6 when CJ relieved Hoyer. I don’t expect a spike in targets this week. There are likely better streaming options available.

TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 9: @NO): After posting a career game in week 7, Howard came back down to Earth last Sunday with 2-16 on 2 targets. He remains behind Cameron Brate as a pass-catching TE for Tampa. Howard’s athleticism will allow him to post a big game here or there if the defense doesn’t account for him, but it’s hard to predict when those games will come. You could use Howard in DFS tournaments as a shoot-the-moon option, but he’s a volatile play.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): The Rams allow the 2nd-most RB points per game, and Gallman hasn’t totally disappeared from the offense despite Orleans Darkwa’s breakout 100-yard game. Gallman actually played 1 more snap than Darkwa the week after that game. His production has been minimal, but if he manages to play 35% or more of the snaps again in this plus matchup, he could be in play as a DFS tournament punt option, or as a desperation flex in the deepest of leagues with so many byes on tap.

RB D’Onta Foreman, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Foreman’s usage pattern has been pretty easy to get a read on in hindsight, and this week, it may be pretty easy to guess how he’ll be used beforehand. In the Texans’ 4 losses, Foreman has averaged 4 touches and 33 scrimmage yards per game. He’s averaged 12 touches and 48 yards in their wins. The Texans are 13-point favorites this week. I’d expect there to be ample garbage time against a Colts’ team that has allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game. If he gets his typical usage for wins and manages to find the end zone, he likely winds up a top-30 RB for the week. You could do worse if looking for a fill in for deeper leagues. He’s a better option in standard formats rather than PPR.

WR Trent Taylor, SF (Wk. 9: vs. Ari.): Pierre Garcon is likely to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson once again this week, and the last time the 49ers faced the Cardinals that resulted in 10 targets for Trent. He posted 5 catches and 47 yards in that game, out-producing Garcon in the process. The Cardinals have proven to be vulnerable to all wide receivers that Peterson doesn’t shadow, They’ve allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game despite Pat Pete allowing just 5 catches and 60 yards on balls thrown into his coverage all year according to RotoWorld’s Targets & Touches. Even with Beathard at QB, Taylor is an intriguing punt option for GPP tournaments and costs the minimum on DraftKings.

WR Ryan Switzer, DAL (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Cole Beasley suffered a concussion and is likely to miss this game. It appears it’ll be Switzer who gets the nod in the slot in a nice matchup against the Chiefs. KC allows the 2^nd-most WR points per game. Beasley hasn’t been a consistent option with just under 4.5 targets per game, but the looming Ezekiel Elliott suspension could change the calculus of the Cowboys’ short passing game. Dallas is likely to be less effective running the ball without him, and they also lose the best receiver they have out of the backfield. Switzer may soak up several more targets than expected this week. With a minimum DFS price tag, he could surprise as a DFS punt play. I would disregard this if Zeke manages to avoid a suspension this week.

WR Curtis Samuel, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. Atl.): After the Kelvin Benjamin trade, Samuel is likely to be elevated to the WR2 in Carolina behind Devin Funchess. He offers a much different skill set than Funch & KB, and should be a better complement to Funchess. Russell Shepard will likely man the slot in the new-look passing attack. I don’t think this is the best opportunity to use Samuel, but I do believe he’s worth a stash in deeper leagues. Atlanta doesn’t allow many big plays in the passing game (just 1 completion against them for 40+ yards), and Samuel’s speed is his best asset. He’s only been targeted 14 times on the season, but KB’s departure frees up 6.5 targets per game and the Panthers have found ways to use Samuel in the running game as well. Keep an eye on what the rookie does this week.

TE Gerald Everett, LAR (Wk. 9: @NYG): If you’re really desperate at tight end, the Giants have allowed at least 45 receiving yards and a touchdown to the tight end position in every game this year. Tyler Higbee is the starter and probably seems like the better play, but Everett has the only TD between the two and averages more than 5 more yards per target than Higbee. Of course, Higbee has more targets, but Everett has been the better downfield threat.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with some of those more difficult lineup decisions and helps you get through another week that’s heavy with byes. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week. A lot can change as the week goes on with guys like Delanie Walker, Jordan Reed, Sterling Shepard, Emmanuel Sanders and anyone else that might affect your lineups. Make sure to check before kickoff on Sunday (or Thursday) to see who’s active. Feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything included above. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

19 Touchdowns in 7 Games

Rookie sensation and new favorite in this column, Deshaun Watson, continued to flash greatness in Seattle on Sunday. He now has 19 passing TD's in the first 7 games of his career, which breaks Kurt Warner's record of 18. Watson is now the front-runner for offensive rookie of the year. In the fantasy world, he has the most points among all players, 176.86 in standard leagues. He's topped 34 points 3 times now, all coming over his last 4 games. He's averaging an astounding 28.36 points per game when he starts and has thrown for at least 3 TD's each of the last 4 games. Watson is even leading all QB's in rushing yards, with 269 and has 2 rushing TD's as well. In short, Deshaun Watson has taken the fantasy football world by storm, and is making everyone on his team much, much better.

3 of the Top 5 WR's

Waiver wire alert! This week, three of the top 5 wide receivers are owned in LESS than 50% of Yahoo leagues. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Paul Richardson, and Robby Anderson may be out there looking to be picked up in your league. They are all solid spot starters to fill in for bye weeks or injuries. All 3 guys are seeing decent volume in terms of their workload, all getting at least 6 targets and 100 yards receiving on Sunday. This week they all found paydirt as well, though you can't count on that every week of course. The two guys in the top 5 who ARE owned in a lot of leagues? Why, Deshaun Watson's teammates, of course. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Filler V combined for a cool 52.9 fantasy points.

4 WR's, 4 RB's

Each week, I've been tracking the relative performance of wide receivers vs. running backs. Over the last couple of years, we've noticed that WR's dominated early, but this year that's been backwards. This week, however, it's starting to even out. Out of the top 10 fantasy players so far this week, there is an even split of 4 WR's and 4 RB's represented in that group. This is easily the most favorable position that WR's have had all year. Last week, the top 10 RB's outscored the WR's by over 3 points, but this week the WR's were on top by over 1 point. My colleague Dave Biggs suggested that quarterbacks get much better as the season goes on, and I think I agree and we're seeing that - this week all QB's combined for 30 TD's and only 20 INT's.

482 of 485 Total Offensive Yards

There was only one player who scored more points than Deshaun Watson on Sunday, and that's the winner of the craziest game of the year, Russell Wilson. Wilson was responsible for 99.4% of his team's total offense, between his 452 passing yards and 30 rushing yards. The rest of the team had a net of 3 rushing yards, or about a half foot per attempt. Of course, stuff like this only happens in a crazy game like we saw on Sunday. According to pro-football-reference.com's win probability, the chances each team could win changed an amazing 24 times. The only thing that was missing from this game was Tony Romo doing the color commentary. Why did you let us down, CBS?

13 Runs Scored

On Sunday afternoon, as with most Sunday afternoons, I was texting my father and brother about the Bears game. I jokingly told my dad that it would be nice to see the Bears offense outscore a baseball team. If only I could harvest my premonitions, my gambling life would be a lot more fun. The Bears, along with 4 other teams, failed to outscore the Houston Astros, who put up 13 runs en route to a win in game 5 of the World Series. The Lions and Raiders would just sneak by with 15 and 14 points respectively, but neither team has cause to be happy with their performances in week 8. Hell, the Lions offense managed just shy of 500 yards from scrimmage, but were unable to score any touchdowns despite 5 trips to the red zone (and two drives that ended just outside).