Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

We're back to the fantasy football podcast again this week. This time, we take a spin around the NFC North. We start our trip in Green Bay, discussing all the fantasy awesomeness to be had there. Then we look at the Lions and try and figure out if they're better this year or not.

Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast: 6/9/15, NFC North Spotlight

We looked at all of the key additions and departures to all the teams. The Vikings get Adrian Peterson back, which isn't technically an addition, but it will certainly make a difference! Finally, we finish off in our hometown and talk about the Bears. The new regime has tried to put their stamp on this team, but they're still handcuffed with the same old QB. Can they succeed?

Update: Dave and I did manage to decide on a bet. He'll be taking Eddie Lacy and I'll take Adrian Peterson for season long points. We're wagering pizza!

A lot has gone on between the games that sometimes it's all anybody talks about. Let's figure out a few things that we learned ON the field on Sunday.

- Jay Cutler and the Bears have reminded us, once again, of the importance of winning the turnover battle. This week, only 3 teams that won had a turnover, and each of those three forced at least one turnover from the losing team. So no matter how favored you are against a team *coughninerscough*, you aren't going to win when you have 4 turnovers and don't force any of your own.

- J.J. Watt can do it all. He's appearing in commercials everywhere, on the SNF intro and now he's catching touchdowns. He currently has the same number of sacks as he has touchdowns. I think they should get him in there every game!

- No one is safe from injury. We saw a flood of injuries throw a stick in the spokes of fantasy football yesterday. Ryan Mathews, RG3, A.J. Green, Carson Palmer, Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin, DeSean Jackson, Vernon Davis were all guys who were fantasy starters, or almost in Palmer's case, who disappointed owners on Sunday. It's a long season guys, as long as I didn't recite your whole roster, you'll recover.

- Never count Aaron Rodgers out, especially at home. At one point in the second quarter, the Packers were trailing 21-3 and had only a 12.2% chance to win. After a beautifully executed two-minute drill to close the first half, he threw two more touchdowns in the second half on his way to being the leading QB of the week, throwing for 346 yards and 3 TD's. Rogers is the only QB to throw over 300 yards on Sunday.

- The Washington Redskins tied a franchise record with 10 sacks of Chad Henne on Sunday. Despite RG3's injury, Washington was able to put up 41 points and break a losing streak stretching way back into last year. My reason for directing your attention here is simple though. Blake Bortles will be starting in Jacksonville sooner, rather than later. Weel ahead of their week 11 bye.

- Arian Foster has shut up all of his draft doubters. After logging another 28 carries yesterday, he's at a league leading 55 carries, with 241 yards and 1 TD (4 rec for 29 yds as well). The Texans are sitting pretty at 2-0 with everything going their way early in the season. Reminds me of a recent season they've had, maybe 2013? While i don't think that Fitzpatrick is going to go on a crazy pick-six streak, don't think for a moment that people in Houston aren't thinking about last year a whole lot right now.

- There will be lots of good pickups on the waiver wire this week. Knile Davis, Bobby Rainey, Donald Brown and Kirk Cousins all performed very well when called upon this week and all, except maybe Rainey, are expected to get the start in week 3. In fact, rumors in Washington are that Coach Gruden prefers Kirk Cousins anyways. He's certainly looked better than Griffin over Washington's last 6 or so games.

- Marc Trestman seems to have a little Belichick in him. After rumors all week that Jeffery and Marshall would not play, including a very bleak outlook on Sunday morning, both of them were on the field to start the game on Sunday night. While Jeffery may have looked like a decoy, he still made a few important catches. Marshall, on the other hand, reeled in 3 TD catches(!) and is tied for the league lead. This is a game that the 49ers had a 98.7% chance to win at one point, definitely the best comeback of the week.

- Antonio Gates is apparently living like it's 2009. He's been targeted 17 times already, has 13 receptions for 177 yards and 3 TD's. As long as he stays healthy, he will be Philip Rivers' security blanket. He's moved firmly back into the higher end of Tight Ends, currently second among ALL TE's in the league. He's going to be a starter every week for the foreseeable future.

- Leaders so far - after two weeks, the leaders at rushing, receiving and passing yards are not surprises by any stretch, none of them are studs that were expected to take this role. Passing: Matt Ryan, 679 yds, Rushing: DeMarco Murray, 285 yds, Receiving: Jordy Nelson, 292 yds. The fantasy points leader is, of course, who we all expected it to be. Jay Cutler. WHAT?!?

The last two seasons have brought early exits for me in the survivor pool league. (Hey even Sex Panther only works 60% of the time every time). I hope to turn it around this year by offering kings blood to the football gods. Also I joined a second and theoretically easier elimination pool where I will be able to pick a team multiple times. I will be referring to the leagues from here on out as single entry(for the league I can only use a team once) and unlimited entry for the other. Each week throughout the season I will give my picks and offer up the reasoning for my choices. And if I am wrong I will explain why the NFL is stupid and my team is the real winner.

So week one is a tough one. All I have to go on is the pre-season, which I watch little to none of every year, trends being established at the end of last year, and off-season moves.

For my single entry pick I am going with the Miami Dolphins over the Washington Redskins on the road. Washington is quickly becoming the laughing stock of the league with their terrible Quarterbacks, insane coach Jay Gruden and meddling owner Daniel Snyder. My early money is on Gruden to be the first head coach firing of the season.

The Dolphins bolstered their defense with the biggest free agent signing of the off-season in Ndamukong Suh, who they hope will make a big impact this season. Also they traded for wide-out Kenny Stills to provide a deep threat for blossoming QB Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins could sniff a playoff berth this year, especially with the soft first 6 games of the season vs: Skins, Jags, Bills, Jets, Titans, and Texans. They will be looking to come out of the gate hot by first rolling over the hapless Redskins.

On the unlimited entry pick I have to go with the Green Bay Packers, a team I have a feeling I will be picking a lot this year. Vegas has them as the pre-season favorites to win the Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers has a 12-2 record vs the Chicago Bears and should improve upon that come Sunday in a game they are favored by 7 points. (the 2^nd biggest spread of the week after the 7 ½ pt favorite Patriots) While I think the Bears will seem more like a football team this year with the hire of real life head coach John Fox, it just won't happen on Sunday.

Good Luck this year, and drink five for the start of the NFL season tonight when the Steelers take on the Patriots!!

Taking a look at the player trends over the past few weeks can reveal some surprising things - it's important, though, to temper expectations in some cases and realize that some great (and some awful) performances can be the product of gameflow as much as the talent and/or rising production of a player. But since each player can only be owned by one team at a time in most standard fantasy leagues, you've got to scoop them up before anyone else and make smart decisions as far as when to play a rising (or falling) star. What do you think about these scenarios? Will the players listed below live up to expectations based on recent weeks? Make sure to check out the podcast to find out which side we take on each player.

Quarterbacks:

Marcus Mariota (TEN)

Week 4 @ HOU – 13/29, 202 yds, 1 INT, 9.08 pts

Week 5 @ MIA – 20/29, 163 yds, 3 TD, 1 rush TD, 30.52 pts

Week 6 vs CLE – 17/24, 284 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 28.76 pts

Mariota has exploded the last two weeks, throwing for 6 touchdowns against just one interception. Mariota is still only owned in 61% of yahoo leagues, but he’s the #8 overall QB so far this season. Mariota has a very favorable schedule ahead of him, with 5 of his next 6 games against bad teams before going into his week 13 bye. Mariota has finally found some receiving targets and could easily finish the season as a top 10 QB. We’ll start the line on him at 22 points this week, at home vs IND.

Aaron Rodgers (GB)

Week 3 vs DET – 15/24, 205 yds, 4 TD, 26.40 pts

Week 5 vs NYG – 23/45, 259 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 17.86 pts

Week 6 vs DAL – 31/42, 294 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 13.46 pts

Anyone who follows us tracking trends knows that this one was coming. Rodgers is traditionally the gold standard for fantasy football consistency, but this year, especially the last few weeks, he has looked like fool’s gold. So far this season, Rodgers looks much like he did last year in completion percentage and yards per passing attempt, two categories that he used to excel in. Now Rodgers has a short week at home vs the Bears, but he’s likely to be without both Eddie Lacy and James Starks. Will the Bears be just what he needs to get his mechanics corrected, or do his struggles continue? We’ll start the line at 19 points.

Running Backs:

James White (NE)

Week 4 vs BUF – 4/12 yds, 5 rec/50 yds, 6.20 pts

Week 5 @ CLE – 5/26 yds, 4 rec/63 yds, 8.90 pts

Week 6 vs CIN – 7/19 yds, 8 rec/47 yds, 2 TD, 18.60 pts

James White is trending up in both points and touches, mostly thanks to the return of Tom Brady. Everyone knew that the focus of the offense would be much more towards passing once Brady returned, so White’s uptick is to be expected. The biggest question with the Patriots backs has always been – How long will this last? Dion Lewis is waiting in the wings to return, though it may not happen until after the Week 9 bye. With White playing better, do you keep starting him, or offer him up as trade bait? This week, the Patriots go to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers without Big Ben. We’ll start his line at 11.

Isaiah Crowell (CLE)

Week 4 @ WAS – 16/120 yds, 1 TD, 20.20 pts

Week 5 vs NE – 13/22 yds, 4.00 pts

Week 6 @ TEN – 9/16 yds, 3.60 pts

Isaiah Crowell started out the season like he was fired from a cannon. He put up just shy of 400 yards and 3 TDs in his first four games and looked like he was headed towards top-10 RB status for the season. Then it’s like he suddenly remembered what team he plays for, and promptly saw his production drop like a rock. This is partly due to the uptick in touches for Duke Johnson Jr, but when your yards per carry goes from 6.45 (Wk 1-4), to 1.72 (Wk 5 & 6), it’s hard to keep giving him the ball. Crowell is still 90% owned, and started in 51% of Yahoo leagues last week. This week he faces the Bengals in Cincy, and we’ll set his line at 9 points, and ask, would you start him this week?

Wide Receivers:

Jamison Crowder (WAS)

Week 4 vs CLE – 3/2 rec, 21 yds, 2.10 pts

Week 5 @ BAL – 3/3 rec, 35 yds, 1 Return TD, 9.50 pts

Week 6 vs PHI – 4/3 rec, 52 yds, 1 TD, 10.30 pts

Jamison Crowder has a larger role on the Redskins offense with Jordan Reed out with a concussion. It’s not settled if he’s coming back this week, but Reed is often out multiple weeks when he has a concussion. Crowder has made some big plays helping the team win each of the last two weeks. With the decline of DeSean Jackson, can Crowder step up to start filling some of that role? We’ll start the line for Crowder at 7 points for his matchup against the Lions, giving up the 5^th most points to opposing WRs.

Antonio Brown (PIT)

Week 4 vs KC – 5/4 rec, 64 yds, 2 TD, 18.40 pts

Week 5 vs NYJ – 11/9 rec, 78 yds, 1 TD, 13.80 pts

Week 6 @ MIA – 8/4 rec, 39 yds, 4.50 pts, 4.50 pts

Antonio Brown was the consensus #1 pick going into the 2016 season, and he already has 2 games where he’s scored under 5 points. It’s not time to panic with Brown, but this week looks like it’s about as tough as matchups get. His starting QB will be Landry Jones and the opposing team will be the New England Patriots. It seems like this so-called juggernaut of an offense can never get going because of injuries and/or suspensions. Brown is the only consistent part, but even this week you may consider benching him. We’ll start our line for Brown at 12 points.

Tight End:

Hunter Henry (SD)

Week 4 vs NO – 7/4 rec, 61 yds, 1 TD, 12.10 pts

Week 5 @ OAK – 4/3 rec, 74 yds, 1 TD, 13.40 pts

Week 6 vs DEN – 8/6 rec, 83 yds, 1 TD, 14.30 pts

Now those are some numbers that are just screaming consistency. Hunter Henry is easily the most impressive rookie TE this season (there were only 3 drafted, after all). Having scored a TD in each of the last 3 games, he’s also drawn 19 targets and is 2^nd in scoring over the last 4 games at the TE position. With Antonio Gates hobbled and on the way out anyways, Henry is in a perfect position to continue his breakout rookie season on a team that is always starving for pass catchers. This week, Henry faces the Falcons, who have given up the 5^th most points to opposing tight ends. Can he continue his impressive streak? We’ll start his line at 13 points.