Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

The weeks in the middle of the season that include the bye weeks are always crucial in a confidence pool. There aren’t as many points to get during the week so every game and every point are crucial.

Lucky for you, you are following my picks! After a week that saw 12 of 14 games picked correctly you should be close to if not on top of your league.

Let’s keep it going!

WEEK 9 – HERE WE GO!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

13 – NEW ENGLAND over Washington – Ho-hum, what do you know? The Patriots are at the top of our list again. Probably something you should just get used to.

12 – CINCINNATI over Cleveland – The Bengals are undefeated…and are playing at home…against the Browns…who will have Johnny Manziel starting…need anything else?

11 – NEW ORLEANS over Tennessee – Drew Brees tied the NFL record last week with seven touchdown passes. His reward? A game against the Titans.

10 – NEW YORK JETS over Jacksonville – The Jets were completely shut down last week in Oakland. They need a game against the Jaguars to get some confidence back.

9 – MINNESOTA over St. Louis – Minnesota is really solidifying their spot as a playoff contender in the NFC. They may have what it takes to slow down the unstoppable tank known as Todd Gurley.

8 – Atlanta over SAN FRANCISCO – Blaine Gabbert is under center for the Niners and Pierre Thomas is now in the backfield after spending the first eight weeks of the season without a team…best of luck with all that.

7 – BUFFALO over Miami – A healthier Bills’ team gets a home game against a team that they blew out on the road just a few weeks ago.

6 – SAN DIEGO over Chicago – After this game, ESPN will be working feverishly on a logistical way to move the flexing ability from Sunday night games to Monday night.

5 – Denver over INDIANAPOLIS – Peyton Manning came as close to the old Peyton as he has this season last week against the Packers. I expect more of the same as he heads back to his old stomping grounds.

4 – Green Bay over CAROLINA – Speaking of the Packers, after reaching their low point of the season last week (by far!) they have a lot of aggression to take out on the unbeaten Panthers. No more unbeatens in the NFC.

3 – Philadelphia over DALLAS – Dez Bryant should have more balls thrown his way this week – unfortunately those balls will still be thrown by not Tony Romo.

2 – Oakland over PITTSBURGH – Another HUGE game for the Raiders after a big win last week. My BOLD PREDICTION this week is NOT ONLY WILL THE RAIDERS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS, BUT THEY WILL WIN A PLAYOFF GAME.

1 – New York Giants over TAMPA BAY – Tampa seems to play their best only when they’re on the road against the division…this game is neither of those.

Well, it's time we all moved on from super injury Sunday and get down to the business of setting up your week 9 lineups. This week, Arizona, Baltimore, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City and Seattle are all on bye. This is the only week of the year with 6 teams on bye, so this is as bad as it gets.

Tyrod Taylor should return to the lineup this week, and he deserves to return to yours as well, with a decent matchup against Miami, whom they beat up on earlier this season. This time they're playing at home and the Bills should rebound nicely after a bye week. Andrew Luck who is also at home this week, ought to take a seat for this week. After seeing what the Broncos did last week to Aaron Rodgers, you don't want to start Luck.

If you're in need of a flex play, Ryan Mathews should find some running room against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night (if he’s healthy). He's looked like a better fit for the Philly offense (and has the most rushing yards on the team), it's only a matter of time before Chip Kelly admits it. Melvin Gordon, despite lots of touches, continues to do nothing with them. Leave him on your bench this week in favor of Mathews or Matt Jones.

Don't worry about last week's disappearing act by James Jones - that Denver defense is just special. Even against the Panthers, I expect the Pack to return to form, including Jones. Brandon LaFell is starting to return to form, but he needs another week to work the kinks out, so keep him out of your lineup until next week.

Julius Thomas is a guy who has worked out most of his kinks, and after a bye week, should be a fine TE1 option. This is despite their matchup with the Jets. Start him over this week's hot pickup, Heath Miller. Even though Ben is back, I expect him to spread the ball out to his receivers more than having to dump it off to Miller.

We have hit double digits in weeks now – week 10!

Playoff contenders are starting to take shape and where you stand in your pool should be taking shape as well. Let’s make sure we continue strengthening our lock on that top spot.

Week 10 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

14 – CINCINNATI over Houston – The week ends with what will probably be a Monday Night yawner. Bengals easily remain undefeated.

13 – GREEN BAY over Detroit – The Packers are on a bit of a slide…but that “slide” was against two undefeated teams. They’re playing pretty much the opposite this week hosting the Lions.

12 – Carolina over TENNESSEE – We saw some signs of life last week from the Titans under their new coaching regime – but that wasn’t against the Panthers.

11 – PITTSBURGH over Cleveland – Ben Roethlisberger is on the shelf once again. As long as Landry Jones realizes that Antonio Brown is also on the field, the Steelers should be just fine against the Browns.

10 – PHILADELPHIA over Miami – Once again the Dolphins are not playing a team destined for the top 10 of the draft. Pretty easy to pick against them.

9 – New England over NEW YORK GIANTS – The Giants are pretty familiar with handing the Patriots their first loss. This, however, is not a Super Bowl Giants team.

8 – DENVER over Kansas City – After literally handing the Broncos a win earlier in the season, the Chiefs will be out for a sense of retribution. Unfortunately for them they have a much worse team than they did in the first game.

7 – ST LOUIS over Chicago – The Bears have been showing some signs of life as of late. The Rams have the defense to slow that role down though.

6 – OAKLAND over Minnesota – I actually read a story giving Derek Carr a bit of MVP credibility. How he bounces back against close loses like last week will test that hypothesis.

5 – NEW YORK JETS over Buffalo – Rex Ryan returns to MetLife Stadium and does so with a captain that knocked out the Jets quarterback. The Jets will be amped for this one.

4 – SEATTLE over Arizona – Seattle will be holding on to whatever chance of winning the division they have this week and should be able to squeak out the win against division-leading Arizona.

3 – TAMPA BAY over Dallas – Does anybody else feel as odd as I do saying that the Cowboys need Tony Romo as much as they do?

2 – WASHINGTON over New Orleans – Drew Brees has brought spark back to the Saints offense to make them exciting to watch again. I don’t expect that to happen here, so this game just won’t be exciting.

1 - Jacksonville over BALTIMORE – Normally I would just say that if you pick the Jags to win a road game, they should be on the one point line. But along with that, with how wide open the Colts have left the division door open, my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE JAGUARS WILL WIN THE AFC SOUTH.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! As the fantasy regular season winds down, hopefully you've got yourself well positioned for a playoff spot. It was a big week for some rookies, with Devin Funchess tallying his first TD and Dorial Green-Beckham finally getting a starter's share of the snaps (even if it took an injury to Kendall Wright to get them). Amari Cooper and Todd Gurley continued their usual excellence, and Karlos Williams returned to action in a big way. Let's talk about what week 10 should have in store...

Rookies to Start:

RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 10: vs. Chi.): If you own him, you know you're starting him, but he should be worth his price tag in daily fantasy games as well. The Bears allow 121 rushing yards a game and 4.6 yards per carry. They do a good job limiting TDs (just 2 rushing scores allowed all year), but Gurley is a good bet to top the century mark this week and I think he finds the end zone as well despite how few the Bears have allowed.

WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 10: @Oak.): Diggs didn't do a lot last week against the Rams, but he should be much better this week. The matchup is much softer. The Raiders don't allow a ton of WR touchdowns (just 4 on the year), but they do allow 16.7 catches and 221 yards per game to them. Diggs gets easily the most volume of the Vikings WRs, and he likely will get around 10 targets and should be safe to fire up as a WR2 this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): The Cowboys have been pretty solid against quarterbacks all year, allowing just 9 passing scores in 8 games and about 240 yards per game, but Jameis has shown a really safe floor. With at least 12 points scored each week, he should be a safe QB2 this week in 2 quarterback leagues, albeit one with limited upside.

RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 10: @StL.): If Matt Forte is out again, volume should keep Langford on the RB2 radar despite a tough matchup. If you have strong options to play over Langford, go for it. The Rams have allowed just 2 offensive TDs in 4 home games this year. While Langford should get a bunch of work, he'll be a long shot to find the end zone. If Forte is a go, Langford shouldn't be near your lineup.

RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 10: @Bal.): Yeldon was having a rough game in week 9, but broke a long 4th quarter run that bailed his day out. With that said, his volume remains consistent. The Ravens have been tough on opposing rushers, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry and just 4 RB touchdowns on the season, but that volume keeps Yeldon in the RB2 discussion. I'd expect him to tally somewhere around 8 points in standard leagues this week.

RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Jones hasn't produced much lately, but he's definitely running ahead of Alfred Morris right now. Jones had 11 carries in week 9, Alf has 10 total in the last 2 games, and he's turned them into just 15 yards. This is a plus matchup for RBs. The Saints allow 105 rush yards per game to opposing backs, and even with Chris Thompson back this week, Jones should get 12-15 carries. That makes him a realistic flex option this week with byes and all of the RB injuries around the league right now.

RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Duke has a similar outlook this week to what he has every other week. He remains firmly on the PPR flex radar. He's a better option if Josh McCown starts at QB. The Steelers allow the 3rd fewest RB fantasy points, but they also allow almost 5 catches and 42 receiving yards per game to RBs.

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Cooper is pretty close to a must-start at this point based on volume and upside, but there are some red flags this week. He's a little dinged up with a quad injury. He's alternated games with a TD and without, and he's due for no TD this week. The matchup isn't ideal, as the Vikings are in the top 10 teams in the league at limiting WR fantasy points. Also, Cooper and Crabtree almost never go off in the same week, and Cooper is the one who usually gets the defense's focus. Week 9 was the second time all year that both receivers finished in the top-24 at the position in fantasy points. It all adds up to Cooper being a little dicier this week than most, and certainly not someone to target in DFS.

WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. NO): I was worried Crowder's role would be reduced with the return of DeSean Jackson, but he caught 6 passes for 50 yards in week 9. Hopefully it's a sign that things won't change with D-Jax back. He's got 8+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games, and at least 4 catches in each of the last 6 (6 rec./gm on average). He's got a plus matchup this week and should be a WR3 option in PPR leagues. His floor this week should be 5 catches and 50 yards.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): Mariota is coming off one of his best days as a pro in week 9 against the Saints, but the Saints are the worst QB defense in the league and he gets a much stiffer test this week. Don't read much into Aaron Rodgers fantasy bonanza in week 9 against these Panthers. That was an outlier game. If you throw out week 9, Carolina is allowing just 12.3 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, which would be good for 3rd lowest in the league behind Denver and St. Louis. Don't chase last week's points here. He's nothing more than a desperation 2QB league play.

RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 10: @NYJ): Earlier in the week I was planning on listing Karlos as a guy to start, but as the week has gone on it's become clear that Shady McCoy will play Thursday night. Karlos was tremendous in his return to action last week (9 carries for 110 yards and 2 TDs), and he now has a TD in every game he's played in and is the overall RB21 for the season despite missing 3 games, but I think the TD streak ends this week. The Jets allow just 10.6 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, and most of the work should go to McCoy. Keep Karlos under wraps this week.

RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 10: @GB): The Packers have been good against RBs, and Abdullah's role shrunk in the first game with Jim Bob Cooter in as offensive coordinator. Joique Bell is getting the early down work and Theo Riddick the passing down work. The game script doesn't set up well in this game either. The Packers are an 11-point favorite and haven't lost to the Lions at home in the last 20 meetings. Keep Abdullah benched.

RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 10: @Sea.): Nothing new to report on Johnson. He remains the 3rd banana in this run game behind CJ2K and Ellington. Even though he's seeing some red zone work, the Seahawks allow the fewest RB fantasy points in the league. This isn't the spot to pick to use a guy with very limited volume.

RB David Cobb, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): Cobb will be activated from the short-term IR this week and should see at least a couple carries, but the bulk of th work this week should go to Antonio Andrews. Andrews has been good in the past 2 games and earned more work. Cobb will eventually factor in, and could be worth a stash in deeper leagues, but you aren't considering him this week.

WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): Big surprise here...another Titan rookie I'm telling you to sit. This is the worst possible week for DGB to draw Josh Norman. The Panthers should deploy their top cover man on Green-Beckham. Dorial had a breakthrough in week 9 with Kendall Wright sidelined, seeing double-digit targets and pulling in 5 of them for 77 yards (both career highs). Wright is likely to be out again, but I don't like the chances of DGB continuing his breakout this week. He has the talent to start producing in tough matchups, but for now I'm giving Norman the benefit of the doubt.

WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Mia.): Agholor should finally return from a high ankle sprain, and the matchup is a good one, but Nelson hasn't done anything yet this year. It would be a pretty big leap of faith to think that this is the week he starts producing, even though the Eagles' offense is playing much better than it was when he got hurt. There is a chance that things click for Agholor at some point in the second half and the fantasy points start coming, but it hasn't happened yet. At most he's a deep league flyer right now.

WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 10: vs. Ari.): Lockett is still in play for leagues that count return yardage. His passing game involvement was increasing before the bye last week (8 catches for 115 yards and a TD in the last 2 games), but the Cardinals are a tough matchup. I hope his role continues to grow, but this isn's a good spot to fire him up.

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 10: @Phi.): I wouldn't get Ajayi into the lineup this week, but I wanted to mention him as a deep league flyer to scoop off the waiver wire. He debuted last week and was impressive, gaining 41 yards on just 5 carries. Lamar Miller isn't going away, but the coaching staff admitted that Ajayi earned more work with his performance. If anything were to happen to Miller, Ajayi would get a huge boost in value. He's definitely surpassed Damien Williams and Jonas Gray on the depth chart, and will see change of pace work for now.

WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Funchess finally broke through last week with a 3-71-1 line, and he gets a favorable matchup again this week. Don't go too crazy here. He's still running behind Ginn, Cotchery and Corey Brown in terms of snap count, so the floor is really low, but he could be a decent punt play in DFS tournaments.

WR Adam Humphries, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Humpries is taking advantage of the absence of Vincent Jackson. He posted a 5-55 line in week 9, and it seems likely that Jackson is out again in week 10. The matchup isn't great, but Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (if he returns) would draw a lot of the defensive attention. There is some upside for a nice PPR day out of Humphries.

TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Walford is a TD dart throw in this game, with the upside for a little bit more. His quarterback likes him, he has 2 scores in the past 3 games, and the Vikings have given up at least 30 TE receiving yards in all but one game this year. If you're desperate for a TE streamer, you could do worse than Walford this week.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps with some of your lineup decisions. If you have any questions or complaints, you can reach out and let me know on twitter (@shawn_foss). As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.