Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Your hosts Jason and Dave are joined this week by regular contributor Tad Bukowski, and we'll be talking about a number of topics including hot takes on the AFC West and NFC North, some Fantasy Fool's Gold players to avoid over the next few weeks, and our weekly cutlist discussion.

We'll also answer any lineup questions you might have in the chatroom or from Twitter and who knows - maybe a bet or two. You can't force these things! 

This video features the songs and artists listed below, available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license: Bridge to Grace - Weapon

Listen to the Fantasy Finish Line, 10/29/2020: Week 8 Preview: Hot Takes!

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Welcome back! We had another solid week in Week 7, but still could have been better.

Time to see what Week 8 has in store for us!

Week 8! HERE WE GO!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

15 – KANSAS CITY over St. Louis – The Rams got a home win against the champs last week, but they needed a lot of trickery to do so. You can’t rely on that every week.

14 – DALLAS over Washington – The Cowboys seem to be the real deal this season. It looks like Colt McCoy will be under center for the ‘Skins Monday Night – that’s a good reason to have a lot of confidence in Dallas this week.

13 – DENVER over San Diego – Peyton and the boys have given us no reason to think that we should have anything but a lot of confidence in them at home. The Chargers may keep this close, but a home loss last week showed that San Diego has some chinks in the armor.

12 – NEW ENGLAND over Chicago – The good news for the Patriots is that they get a home game this week…the good news for the Bears is that they DON’T have a home game this week! Seriously, the Blackhawks have more wins in Soldier Field than the Bears do in 2014! Tom Brady is starting to look like the old Tom Brady which isn’t good news for a depleted Chicago secondary.

11 – Miami over JACKSONVILLE – Miami looked really impressive on the road last week. The Fins may be able to make a strong run at the division this season. The Jags are coming off of their first win of the season last week – hard to see them make it two in a row this week.

10 – CINCINNATI over Baltimore – The Bengals are just confusing this year. A lot of the offensive problems, though, revolve around AJ Green and his toe. If he plays, it will be hard to stop Cincy.

9 – ARIZONA over Philadelphia – Hard to imagine but there is an outside chance that this could very well be your NFC Championship game! With Carson Palmer playing the way he is, the Cardinals offense will be able to outscore the Eagles.

8 – NEW YORK JETS over Buffalo – The Jets were a field goal away from an upset in Foxboro last Thursday and the Bills just barely got by half of the Minnesota Vikings at home. The Jets have been close in most of their losses this season – I think this is the week they cross the line.

7 – Seattle over CAROLINA – If you listen closely, you can hear the Packers score on the Panthers again! That game was brutal! It doesn’t get any better as an upset Seahawks team comes to Charlotte. After losing to the Rams, Seattle will be pumped to show they are still the cream of the crop.

6 – Houston over TENNESSEE – Titans fans have started the “Suck for the Duck” campaign (meaning tank the year in order to draft Oregon star quarterback Marcus Mariota) and it looks like the team is obliging. Arian Foster will run all over the Titans so much so that my BOLD PREDICTION is that Arian Foster will have a 200 yard game.

5 – CLEVELAND over Oakland – After looking drastically improved two weeks ago, the Raiders reminded us last week that they are indeed still the Raiders. Look for a huge game for Ben Tate which will allow the Browns to control the game and get the win.

4 – Indianapolis over PITTSBURGH – The Steelers have been very hit or miss this season. Last week they hit and this week the Colts will make sure they miss.

3 – Green Bay over NEW ORLEANS – Sunday Night Football has a shootout on their hands this week. The only thing scarier than the thought of a Saints offense in the dome is this Packer offense in the dome. Rodgers has the team and city R-E-L-A-X ing to the tune of four straight wins averaging over 36 points in that span. Look for win number five this week.

2 – ATLANTA over Detroit – London game number two comes up this week with the Falcons and Lions. Here’s the kicker – the game will be played in prime LONDON time, which translates to a 9:30 a.m. EST kickoff in the states. I’ll be sleeping to the coin told me the Falcons will win.

1 - Minnesota over TAMPA BAY – This could have been a decent game. Unfortunately half of the Vikings offense is gone and the Bucs just can’t seem to get it going. The Vikings were close on the road last week so we’ll give them our one-point line this week.

Week 8 Sleeper Starts

With so many options to choose from, sometimes fielding a fantasy lineup can be quite the headache. Obvious are the starts akin to Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck and the games other bigger names. However, it’s the tougher choices – namely the less obvious starts – that will end up winning your league.

Here are a few names you might want to consider:

Alex Smith QB Kansas City – Alex Smith has been just ok so far this year. Like so often when he played in San Francisco, Smith is more of a game manager than a passer. In leagues that play two quarterbacks, this week could be the opportune time to take a chance on Smith as he gets the hapless St. Louis Rams at home – a team whose defense is highly disappointing this season, especially against the pass. Top target Dwayne Bowe hasn’t been exactly lighting it up, but did show his presence in Week 7 against San Diego grabbing 5 catches for 84 yards – a good sign for Smith owners. Let’s not forget that RB Jamaal Charles always has the capability to turn a short catch into a long play. Too many indicators point to Smith being a decent play and solid WR2 for Week 8.

Bryce Brown RB Buffalo – We all know what Bryce Brown is capable of doing in a game. With 564 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in limited game time while filling in for an injured LeSean McCoy in 2012, we got a good taste of the kind of talent Brown has. Brown hasn’t since done very much waiting in the wings behind McCoy before getting moved to Buffalo this season where he has been sitting behind two very serviceable backs in Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Now Spiller is out until at least Week 16 with a collarbone injury and a less effective than past Jackson could be out up to four weeks with a groin issue. That leaves Buffalo to rely on Brown. Brown has the opportunity to really show what he can do in the next few weeks and though this week’s matchup at NY Jets isn’t the greatest, he should still put up numbers to qualify him as a decent RB2, especially if he can gain QB Kyle Orton’s confidence early and get targets in the short passing game. Brown has big play ability.   

Darren McFadden RB Oakland – McFadden only has 14 carries in each of his last two games but has tallied an above pedestrian 128 rushing yards with a touchdown. This week I suspect will McFadden get more carries and he has a juicy match-up at Cleveland who rank 25 against running backs this season. There is all kinds of potential for McFadden to put up fair numbers this week as neither team is known for slinging the ball around setting the table for a big run game on both ends. McFadden is a fill in option only as a RB3, but don’t be surprised if he exceeds expectations this week.

Mike Wallace WR Miami – Anytime a player goes up against Jacksonville this year, you have to take a close look. This week Wallace gets his chance and he should deliver big numbers. Scoring a touchdown in his last three games, Wallace has gotten fantasy owners double digits in points during that stretch and there is no reason to think he won’t do it again this week. This week would probably also be a good bet for Wallace to finally reach the 100-yard-plus receiving mark, as he has failed to do so far this season. Wallace is a nice WR2 with big WR1 potential.

Eric Decker WR NY Jets – Keep an eye on Decker’s status. He has played with a bum hamstring the past two games but has still managed 10 catches on 17 targets. Now that all purpose wide receiver Percy Harvin enters the fold, Decker could find himself open for QB Geno Smith far more often. Decker should certainly benefit from the surprising acquisition of Harvin and this week’s matchup against Buffalo would have been quite enticing anyway since their defense is ranked 24 against the wide receiver position. Despite a struggling Smith at the helm, Decker could be a decent WR2 in Week 8.

Gavin Escobar TE Dallas – Tightend Jason Witten’s numbers are dwindling while counterpart Gavin Escobar has snagged 3 touchdowns in the past two games. Witten will certainly get more targets moving up and down the field but Escobar has clearly shown his ability to get open in the endzone where a battle-weary Witten may have finally lost a step. There are plenty of decent tightend plays out there for Week 8, but if you are having injury or bye week issues, Escobar could be worth a shot for a touchdown grab or more. Escobar could be a nice fill in option – keep him on your radar.  

Every week there are certain surprises and disappointments that can really throw us off guard as fantasy owners and strategists. But I am a firm believer that keeping on top of these with good analysis and projecting what results will be down the line can be the difference for your fantasy team and propel you to the playoffs. Each week we'll find a couple such instances during the games and point out the important things that you may have missed along the way.

Being a Pittsburgh Steelers fan, of course I'm going to bring up what was quite an amazing performance by the Steelers on Sunday against the Colts. Despite the medicore showings that the Steelers have had in the first several weeks of the 2014 NFL season, Week 7 and 8's match-ups have shown that their offense is clicking and the defense is starting to figure out who they are. First, Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed what was easily his best regular season performance of all time.. putting up 522 yards and 6 TD's. That's just a few yards shy of the best statistical performance from an NFL quarterback in the history of the league. We know that Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are every week plays for fantasy owners, but does this mean that Roethlisberger should be looked at as a top 10 QB going forward? He's currently the #7 QB overall in standard scoring leagues after this Sunday and I think he'll end the year at the bottom of the top 10. The only QB to have thrown for more yards than him this year is Andrew Luck. Markus Wheaton was a popular pick as a WR sleeper before the season started and is still a part of the offense, but the chemistry between him and Big Ben has yet to impress. With 6'4" rookie Martavis Bryant finally healthy and involved in games it looks like he'll move into the WR2 role in Pittsburgh which comes along with plenty of redzone targets and loose coverage opposite Antonion Brown. Bryant is immediately in the waiver wire discussion (owned in 10% of leagues but finishing as the #9 WR in Week 8 with 20.30 fantasy points in a standard league).

Tom Brady has quickly eliminated any doubt that we had about his 2014 season. True, he started out the year underwhelming fantasy owners even to the point of dropping him before his breakout game against Buffalo, but has since improved dramatically along with other key components of the offense. It has long been known that Brady's recent successes can be tied to good games by Gronkowski - and that certainly was the case against Chicago on Sunday when The Gronk scored 3 touchdowns on 9 receptions for 149 yards. The running back situation in New England has always been up-in-the-air, and especially this year with Stevan Ridley out and Bolden not being used. It looks to me like we can safely say that Vereen and newcomer Jonas Gray will be the primary options from here on out (until injury or ball-control issues, at least), with Gray taking on Ridley's responsibilities including goal-line carries. Keep in mind that Gray nearly scored a touchdown on Sunday, and if he had (along with his 17 rushes for 86 yards) he would certainly be in the discussion for the #1 waiver wire pickup this week. The real enigma as of late has been Julian Edelman: trending down over the past few weeks, we have to wonder if his role (so crucial last year to the Patriot's success) has been cannibalized by a healthy Gronkowski and the emergence of Brandon LaFell (at least 4 receptions over the past 3 games including 3 TD's, last game was 11 for 124 and 1 TD). LaFell is also definitely in the waiver wire discussion this week (only owned in 35% of leagues, #11 WR in Week 8 with 18.40 fantasy points in a standard league).

Admittedly I was down on Mark Ingram a bit for several reasons.. first, I don't like playing players when just coming back from injury and second, the two defenses that Ingram performed well against at the beginning of the season (Atlanta and Cleveland) have graded out to be absolutely terrible against running backs over the course of the year so far (giving up over 1000 rushing yards each and a combined 20 TD's on the ground). Ingram turned out to be a terrific fantasy asset on Sunday night, rushing 24 times for 172 yards and 1 TD and adding 1 reception for 3 yards. So, should we be slotting him into lineups each week from here on out? First of all, he should be owned in all leagues.. he is currently owned in only 69% of Yahoo fantasy leagues and if he is available he should be your first pickup this week without question. Let's temper ourselves a bit, though, and look deeper into the situation: Ingram is currently without any competition in the backfield because Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas are both out with injuries. According to the most recent news, both should also miss Friday's contest against the Panthers leaving Ingram with the unquestioned primary role once more and making him a RB1 for the match-up against a soft Carolina rushing defense. Travaris Cadet is an intriguing player who is also getting more time on the field now as the passing down specialist (4 receptions for 40 yards on Sunday night) but is no threat to Ingram's job and should fade back into the background when Pierre Thomas is able to resume play. The one thing that I want to caution about after all of this good news, is that the Packers were also bad against the rush.. which means that although I think Ingram will be great against the Panthers on Thursday, he still has yet to play a team of any real skill against running backs. In weeks 10-13 the Saints will face up against the 49ers, Bengals, Ravens and Steelers.. all teams that are much better equipped to stifle his production. When Thomas and Robinson return (as early as week 10), we'll also see a return to the Saints' 3-headed RB committee. What does all of this mean? Well.. play Ingram this week, but try as hard as you can to push him in a trade before his fantasy production falters in the coming weeks.