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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now 7 weeks into the NFL season, and in some ways, it feels like we know less now that when we started. Every week it feels like there are 2-3 games with stunning outcomes. Just in the last two weeks we’ve seen the Jets beat the Packers, the Falcons beat the 49ers, the Steelers and Panthers both beat the Bucs, the Bears top the Patriots, and the Seahawks beat the Chargers. It truly has been an “Any Given Sunday” kind of season so far, and that keeps things interesting each and every week. Hopefully, you’ve been able to navigate the chaos well enough to keep your fantasy teams afloat.

When it comes to the rookies, Chris Olave and George Pickens had nice games in week 7, but it’s the running backs who continue to dominate the rookie conversation. Breece Hall has ripped off 6 straight top-24 weekly finishes, Dameon Pierce has tallied 4 in a row, and Kenneth Walker III has posted 3 straight. Unfortunately, Breece Hall’s streak will end there as he suffered a torn ACL that will end his season and create a huge void here at the Rookie Report. Week 7 also saw the continued disappearances of rookie receivers Garrett Wilson and Drake London as their coaches continue to lean harder into the run game at the expense of opportunity for their star pass catchers. Alec Pierce could be the next rookie to fall victim to play-calling as Indy’s switch to Sam Ehlinger at QB could also signal a new, run-heavy approach. Finding start-able rookies beyond the obvious names is getting tougher each week. Let’s get into what it all means for week 8.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s dive into 8…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. NYG): Watching Kenneth Walker run for Seattle is enough to make you re-think the mantra that ‘running backs don’t matter.’ He’s been electric for 3 straight weeks now since Rashaad Penny suffered a season-ending injury. Walker isn’t going to provide much production in the passing game, but he’s averaged 118 rushing yards and scored 4 TDs in the last 3 weeks, good enough to rank as the RB6 in PPR points per game in that span despite just 2 catches for 13 yards. On paper, the Giants may look like a tougher matchup, allowing the 11^th-fewest RB points per game, but it’s a perfect matchup for Walker. New York’s success against RBs stems from their ability to limit receiving production from the position, something Walker doesn’t get much of anyway. The Giants have allowed 8 fewer RB receptions than any other team, and the 2^nd-fewest RB receiving yards for the season. They also have allowed the 3^rd-most RB rushing yards and rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA. Walker could be in line for a huge game. He should be treated as a top-10 option this week at the position and feels like a bargain in DFS lineups.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 8: vs. LV): Any concerns you might’ve had about Olave returning from his concussion, or having to deal with Andy Dalton at QB, were put to bed pretty quickly on Thursday night. All this kid does is produce fantasy points. In the last 5 games, he’s been active for, Olave has had a 25% or higher target share, 39% or higher air yardage share, and 13+ PPR points in all of them. He’s averaging 8.8 targets per game and draws a Vegas defense that ranks 30^th in pass defense DVOA. Olave is a locked-in WR2 for fantasy lineups this week. 

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): The Atlanta Falcons team stat line from week 7 is jarring to look at. In a game where they trailed on every single offensive snap, and by multiple scores on all but 5 offensive snaps, the Falcons attempted just 13 passes. The commitment to running the football in the face of that negative game script was mind-boggling, especially as they struggled to have success with it. Atlanta called a run play on 16 of their 19 first down plays in the game and averaged just 2.8 yards per carry on those plays. On the 3 first down pass plays called, they put up 88 total yards and a touchdown. While the playcalling looks insane to us, it’s a good thing for Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier emerged from what had been a near 50/50 split with Caleb Huntley and handled two-thirds of the RB rushing attempts and played 62% of the offensive snaps. This week the Falcons get a matchup where the game script should be much more favorable as 6-point favorites against the Panthers. Carolina allows the 13^th-most RB points per game, and Cordarrelle Patterson is still at least one more week away from returning. If Allgeier continues to see a similar share of the backfield work this week he’s got high-end RB2 upside.

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Robinson’s role remained largely the same with Taylor Heinicke under center in week 7. He handled more than 50% of the team's rushing attempts for the third straight game and saw his first two targets of the season. Antonio Gibson had a nice bounce-back game last weekend as well, but his playing time came at the expense of JD McKissic, not B-Rob. The Colts are favored by 2.5 points in this game, but with their QB switch to Sam Ehlinger, I wouldn’t count on them to live up to that Vegas line. Game script could end up working in Robinson’s favor. The Colts have allowed the 9th-most RB rushing yards per game and have given up 10+ points (half-PPR) to 8 running backs in their past 6 games. There’s room for both Robinson and Gibson to have a nice game again. Robinson is a floor play RB2/3 this week. You can count on reasonable rushing volume and hope for a TD.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 8: @Phi.): In case you haven’t been paying attention in recent weeks, the George Pickens breakout is happening in Pittsburgh. The rookie has at least 6 catches and 60+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games and has outproduced Diontae Johnson in every one of those 3 games. Kenny Pickett seems to favor Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth as his top options in the passing game. The matchup this weekend won’t be easy as Pickens will get to tangle with veteran corners James Bradberry and Darius Slay on the outside, but while the Eagles have shut down QBs, they haven’t been quite as dominant against wide receivers. Philly has allowed the 11^th-fewest WR points per game and has allowed 6 different receivers to score in double figures this season (half-PPR). Pittsburgh should be playing from behind and be forced to throw a lot. I think Pickens sees 7+ targets in this one, and that makes him a solid WR3 option even in a tough matchup.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 8: @Sea.): Robinson has been active for just 3 games this season, and he’s already emerging as the team’s clear lead wide receiver. The rookie is quickly proving to be a PPR maven. He was targeted on 36% of his routes in limited playing time in his return from IR in week 6 and followed that up by leading the team with 8 targets in a more full-time role in week 7. The Seahawks have allowed the 12^th-most PPR points per game to wide receivers lined up in the slot this season per Sports Info Solutions, so Robinson should be in line for another reasonable PPR game. Brian Daboll has run a really creative offense so far through 7 games, so hopefully, we’ll see Wan’Dale do more than just catch short throws as the season goes on. The team traded away Kadarius Toney to Kansas City on Thursday, removing one of the few WRs on the Giants who actually has the talent to threaten Wan’Dale’s new role.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 8: @Phi.): There has been plenty of passing volume for Pickett in his starts – he’s averaged 48 pass attempts per game in his two full contests – but that volume hasn’t added up to big fantasy performances and he gets a brutal matchup this week. The Steelers are 11-point underdogs, so Pickett should be throwing a bunch again, but Philly has allowed just 1 QB all year to throw for more than 225 yards against them, and they’ve allowed the 2^nd-fewest QB points per game. I wouldn’t view Pickett as anything more than a low-end QB2 this week, and I’d avoid him in Superflex leagues that penalize harshly for turnovers. Pickett has a 2-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio on the year, and the Eagles’ defense has 9 interceptions through 6 games.

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 8: vs. Ten.): I know most of you will disagree with this one, but I don’t feel good about Pierce this week. I know he’s been great over the last month, putting up over 100 scrimmage yards in each of his last 4 games and finding the end zone in 3 of them, but the Titans are a tough matchup for him. The Titans rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed just 3 running backs to score in double-digits against them this year – Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Jonathan Taylor. All 3 of them caught at least 5 passes in those games, a mark that Pierce has only hit once this season. Dameon still isn’t getting on the field in obvious passing situations. Since ascending to the lead back role in week 2, Pierce has yet to face a defense that ranks higher than 15^th in run defense DVOA. The rookie gets enough usage that he could make me look stupid this week, but I’d be fading him in DFS lineups, and I think you should temper expectations in season-long leagues and take a hard look at some of your bench options. Guys you normally wouldn’t play ahead of Pierce like Tony Pollard, Raheem Mostert, and Michael Carter are all players I like more than Pierce this week.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): White is playing just enough over the last month to give you hope that he’s going to develop some standalone value, but not quite enough that you’d feel comfortable starting him in any lineups. The rookie has played 38% or more of the offensive snaps in 3 of the last 4 games and had at least 8 opportunities (carries + targets) in all 4, but he’s averaged just 8.3 PPR points per game in that span. The Ravens have been just a middling RB defense, allowing the 16^th-most RB points per game and ranking 23^rd in run defense DVOA, but I’m not willing to count on a breakout game from White in this matchup. I think the Bucs would be better served by leaning on their proven stars – Fournette, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin – to try and right the ship for this struggling offense.

RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 8: @Min.): Ingram is only worth any consideration if James Conner remains sidelined this week. Conner is practicing in a limited capacity this week but is still listed as questionable. Ingram found the end zone last week (and had a second TD overturned on replay review) and finished the week as the RB25, but he was on the field for less than 30% of the offensive snaps and was very inefficient as a runner. Ingram totaled just 14 rushing yards on 9 carries and gets a similar matchup this week (New Orleans ranks 19^th in run defense DVOA, and Minnesota ranks 21^st). If you start Ingram, you’re mostly just hoping he gets in the end zone again. Eno Benjamin is the Cardinals' back to start if Conner is out another week.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Doubs continued to play a full-time role in week 7, but he was targeted just 4 times and didn’t catch any of them in a game where he and Aaron Rodgers just weren’t connecting, and some comments by Rodgers on Pat McAfee’s show on Tuesday seemed to put most of the blame on the rookie. Rodgers didn’t call out Doubs by name, but he said, “Guys who are making too many mistakes, shouldn’t be playing. Gotta start cutting some reps. Maybe guys who aren’t playing, maybe give them a chance.” Doubs was credited with two drops in the game and had another target fall incomplete when he and his QB were clearly not on the same page about where he should be. The Packers will probably have no choice but to throw a bunch this week as double-digit underdogs in Buffalo, and the team’s WR1 Allen Lazard may miss this game, but that may not be enough to protect Doubs against losing reps. Christian Watson appears to be on track to return this week, and his skill set makes him a natural replacement for Lazard. Don’t be surprised if Doubs starts losing reps this week to Amari Rodgers and/or Samori Toure. I’d be very hesitant to trust Doubs this week.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): The Falcons’ die-hard commitment to running the ball that is so positive for Tyler Allgeier in week 8 is also killing the value of their number 1 receiver. The Falcons have thrown the ball more than 20 times just once in the last 5 weeks. London has a 27.5% target share in that span, but it’s amounted to just 2.6 receptions and 31 yards per game. The Panthers have allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game, but if you start London against them, you do so at your own risk. He should be viewed as a WR4 bye week fill-in player for now.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Pierce’s playing time continued to climb in week 7, as he reached a season-high 96% route participation rate against the Titans, but the targets haven’t increased along with it. Instead, Parris Campbell has seen a jump in targets, with at least 11 passes coming his way in each of the last two weeks. Pierce’s targets have consistently been deeper downfield (12.0 aDOT for the season compared to 5.1 for Campbell), so he can do damage on fewer targets, but the Colts’ changing of the guard at QB could derail Pierce’s season. Matt Ryan was averaging 42 pass attempts per game for the year. With the switch to Sam Ehlinger, I’d expect that team number to be closer to 25-30 attempts per game going forward. That lower volume should be a downgrade for all the Colts’ pass-catchers. Pierce is too risky to start in Ehlinger’s first game under center, even in a good matchup against the Commanders (29^th in pass defense DVOA).

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Dotson is only borderline if he’s actually able to play this week, but I’d lean against playing him if that happens. He seems to be on the wrong side of questionable right now, but even if he plays, I’d expect him to be eased back into action after missing the last 3 games, and the Colts have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game. The switch to Taylor Heinicke at QB seemed to breathe new life into the passing game last Sunday, but Dotson likely won’t see the benefits of that this week.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 8: @Jax.): The tight end position has been ugly beyond the top few guys this year (as it is every year), so Dulcich is worth at least some consideration if you’re hard up for a starter at the position this week, but I’d look at other options. The Jaguars have allowed just 2 tight ends to reach double-digit PPR points this year, and none to reach that mark in half-PPR. Only two tight ends have hauled in more than 3 receptions in a game against Jacksonville this season. If you get 8-10 PPR points out of Dulcich in this one you should take that with a smile on your face.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 8: @NYJ): It appeared for a brief moment that Mac Jones may have been Wally Pipp-ed on Monday night. Mac Jones was pulled from the game after struggling to move the ball and throwing a costly interception early on against the Bears, and Bailey Zappe calmly entered and led the Pats on back-to-back TD drives to give them the lead. If he kept up that strong play, he’d likely be getting the nod again this week. Instead, the rookie turned the ball over 3 times and didn’t lead the team to another point after those first two drives as the Bears throttled New England. The Pats announced on Wednesday that Mac Jones will start this weekend against the Jets. There’s always the possibility that Zappe gets inserted mid-game again if Jones struggles, but you can’t put him in a lineup in hopes that happens.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Warren still has just one game of more than 5 touches behind Najee Harris. That shouldn’t change this week in a tough matchup with the Eagles. He remains just an upside handcuff.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Cook has totaled fewer than 3 touches and 10 scrimmage yards in half of Buffalo’s games this season and has yet to reach 10 PPR points in a game. He’s gotten some extra rushing opportunities late in blowout wins against the Titans and Steelers this year, and the Bills are 10.5-point favorites, but I think Green Bay will keep this game closer than Vegas predicts. I don’t expect more than a few touches for Cook.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Kyren will be ready to return from IR soon, possibly even this week, but I’d take a wait-and-see approach with the rookie until we get a sense of what his role behind Darrell Henderson will look like. Malcolm Brown will likely serve as the RB2 this week even if Kyren is active, and the 49ers allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game.

RB Snoop Conner, JAX (Wk. 8: vs. Den.): Conner takes a step up the depth chart with James Robinson traded to the Jets, but that just means he’ll be active on Sundays instead of a healthy scratch. Travis Etienne remains the clear #1 back with JaMycal Hasty likely serving as the primary backup. Conner’s playing time is worth monitoring this week to see if he can leapfrog Hasty into the RB2 role. More than 70% of Hasty’s snaps this season have been on special teams, so it’s possible that’s the reason he’s been active ahead of Conner. Neither backup has standalone value right now, but it’s good to know who holds that role going forward.

WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. GB): With Isaiah McKenzie back in week 6, Shakir’s route participation rate dropped from 70% (week 5) down to 20% and he was targeted just twice in the team’s win over Kansas City. His only path to a useful fantasy day this week would be a splash play or two, which the Bills are very capable of, but you can’t count on it in such limited playing time.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): Bell has seen his route participation rate reach above 60% in back-to-back games now, but he has just 3 total targets in those contests to show for it. There’s a small chance he sees an uptick in opportunities with safety valve David Njoku sidelined for a couple of weeks, but the Bengals allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 8: vs. LV): You probably weren’t considering Shaheed in fantasy lineups anyway, but his NFL career has gotten off to a fun start in the last couple of weeks. He’s only been active for 2 games, and he’s played just 19 snaps and handled 2 offensive touches in those games, but those touches went for a 44-yard rushing TD and a 53-yard receiving TD. You can’t count on that kind of big play in weekly lineups, but it’s reminiscent of former Atlanta Falcons’ RB Antone Smith. Smith had a 10-game stretch in 2013 and 2014 where he handled a total of 24 offensive touches, and 8 of them went for more than 35 yards (7 of those for TDs). It would be really fun if Shaheed keeps this up.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Jones has yet to play 20% of the offensive snaps in a game for Chicago, so his only hope for fantasy relevance would be to score a TD or break off a long play. The Cowboys have allowed just 6 plays of 25+ yards in their first 7 games.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Okonkwo played a season-high 46% of the Titans’ offensive snaps in week 7, but he was targeted just once. He’s been targeted more than once just one time in 6 games. There’s no benefit to playing Okonkwo, unless it’s as a $200 dart throw in a Showdown contest.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): As I said with Alec Pierce above, I expect the switch to Sam Ehlinger at QB to be a downgrade for all Indy pass-catchers, and that includes Woods. I expect the Colts to go to a run-heavy approach, and that means even less volume to split between their 3-headed TE rotation. Woods is a bad bet this week even as a TD dart throw as the Commanders have allowed just 1 tight end score and allow the 4^th-fewest TE points per game.

TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): Hendershot got into the end zone in week 7, but he and Jake Ferguson combined for just 3 targets, 3 catches, and 12 yards, and neither rookie tight end was on the field for even 40% of the offensive snaps with Dalton Schultz back at close to full strength. Starting either of these guys is a hail mary no matter how good or bad of a tight end matchup they face.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 8: @Min.): The Vikings allow the 6^th-most TE points per game, but McBride hasn’t been targeted since week 3. That’s all you need to know here.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 8: @Sea.): Bellinger picked a bad time to suffer a major injury. The Seahawks have been giving up big points to tight ends this year, but the Bellinger suffered a fractured eye socket last Sunday that will keep him sidelined indefinitely (possibly for the rest of the season).

Rookies on byes this week: RB Isiah Pacheco, KC, RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, WR Skyy Moore, KC

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Chuba Hubbard is nursing a sprained ankle and isn’t practicing as of Thursday. Blackshear would likely step into a primary passing down role if Hubbard were to sit. The running backs had a 24% target share from PJ Walker last week, and the Falcons allow the 9^th-most RB receptions per game. Game script should be negative this week with Atlanta favored by 6 points, so there’s some nice upside for Blackshear at a price tag of just $200 in DraftKings showdown contests.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 8: @NYJ): You might not have realized it if you only looked at his 1-catch, 19-yard stat line from Monday night, but Tyquan Thornton is now a full-time player for the Patriots. The rookie played 85% of the team’s offensive snaps against the Bears despite Nelson Agholor being active, and his 5 targets were tied for 2^nd on the team. The Jets' secondary has been playing at a high level in the last few weeks as Sauce Gardner has emerged as a great young corner, but they haven’t seen a player with Thornton’s 4.2-speed. I like his chances to make a splash play in this game and think his price is right for GPP contests on DraftKings at just $3,800. He’s no more than an upside dart throw in deeper season-long leagues this week, but one that I think will pay off on Sunday.

WRs Christian Watson & Samori Toure, GB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): If you saw what I wrote about Romeo Doubs above, you know I think there’s an opportunity for some other WR on the Packers to step up this week. I mention Toure here only as a deep dart throw for Showdown contests (Priced at just $600 on DraftKings). I think Toure and Amari Rodgers have a chance to take some of Doubs’ reps this week, and Toure played a few more snaps than Rodgers last Sunday. Watson is practicing early in the week and seems to be in line to return from injury this week, and he could step into a big role if Allen Lazard is sidelined (Lazard is listed as ‘doubtful’). The Bills aren’t an easy matchup, allowing the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, but Green Bay will have to throw, and Watson costs close to the minimum on DraftKings this week ($3,200). He’s got a low floor, but a blowup game wouldn’t be shocking here. Since the start of last season in prime-time games, Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 with 16 TDs, 0 INTs, and 260 passing yards per game. I know the Bills are a daunting defense and the Packers are in a shambles in recent weeks, but I wouldn’t count out Rodgers and the Packers for the season just yet.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Thursday players are usually not a great idea for fantasy lineups, but Otton has scored 10+ PPR points in both games where he’s played 80% or more of the offensive snaps, and Cam Brate will be sidelined again on Thursday night. Otton should be in line for 5-7 targets against a middling TE defense. The Ravens have allowed the 14^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t count on much more than 10 PPR points, but he should be right around that number again.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 8: @TB): Keep a close eye on the status of Mark Andrews for Thursday night if you’re considering using Likely anywhere, but Andrews didn’t practice all week with a knee injury and his status is very up in the air for this game. Both Likely and Josh Oliver would see significant boosts in playing time if Andrews sits, and Likely is the one of that pair who has drawn the targets this season despite playing fewer snaps. Likely has played 40 fewer snaps than Oliver this season, but drawn 10 more targets, so he’s the guy I’d expect to get the biggest boost. The Bucs have allowed the 10^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t feel great about either backup tight end in a season-long format, but in DFS I’d much prefer to roll out Likely at $1,600 in a Showdown contest than his Bucs counterpart Cade Otton at $5,000. Otton is the better play in season-long leagues though.

UPDATE: Mark Andrews is ACTIVE for Thursday Night Football

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Random observation here …

We have a bit of an anomaly this week. Throughout most of the season we have to deal with bye weeks. Whether it is our fantasy teams or not being able to get more points in a week of a confidence pool, we have to deal with a stretch of the season where someone won’t be playing.

This week though, in the heart of it all, guess who has a bye week … … … bye weeks!

Yes, all 32 teams will be taking the field this weekend. It’s a good thing, too – after the last couple of weeks, we need more points!

Week 8 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – MIAMI over New England – The Patriots won a game they shouldn’t have last week – won’t happen two weeks in a row.

15 – BUFFALO over Tampa Bay – Buffalo will happily use the national stage for a “get right” game

14 – DETROIT over Las Vegas – Fire Josh McDaniels

13 – SEATTLE over Cleveland – The Brows just aren’t allowed to be on a roll for this long – it ends in Seattle

12 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – Khalil Mack had six sacks against the Raiders, a former team, a few weeks ago…just gonna leave that there

11 – Kansas City over DENVER – The only reason this is not the 16 point game is that its in Denver

10 – SAN FRANCISCO over Cincinnati – Keep an eye on the Brock Purdy situation – if he can’t go, drop the 9ers way down…maybe even take the Bengals.

9 – Baltimore over ARIZONA – The Cardinals have made it a little harder to say this – My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE CARDINALS WILL HAVE THE FIRST PICK IN THE 2024 NFL DRAFT.

8 – DALLAS over Los Angeles Rams – Micah Parsons vs Aaron Donald … enjoy!

7 – New Orleans over INDIANAPOLIS – I see a big game from Derek Carr here – at least 300 yards.

6 – Minnesota over GREEN BAY – To quote the great Dennis Green – Jordan Love is indeed who we thought he was.

5 – CAROLINA over Houston – Bryce Young was just waiting to play #2 pick CJ Stroud for the first time to get his first win … … … is the denial that he is going with.

4 – Atlanta over TENNESSEE – I can’t really figure the Falcons out this season…but in a good way,

3 – WASHINGTON over Philadelphia – Hunch…and hunches stay low on our list.

2 – PITTSBURGH over Jacksonville – This just seems like a game the Steelers can pull out.

1 – NEW YORK JETS over New York Giants – I’d give the standard “New York Bragging Rights” comment here, but is anyone in New York bragging over either team?

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! You’ve survived the week 7 bye-mageddon, and the scheduling gods have given you a reprieve for week 8 with no byes on the schedule. There will be more challenging bye weeks ahead, but all options are on the table this weekend. Unfortunately, that means there may be fewer rookies that are worth rolling the dice on with fewer lineup holes to be filled.

There are fewer rookies I’d lean toward starting this week than in a typical bye week, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t reasons to be excited for the rookie crop this weekend. We do get a couple of fun rookie matchups in week 8. We were deprived of Tyson Bagent vs Aidan O’Connell last week when the Raiders opted to start Brian Hoyer, but we get the rookie QB main event this week with CJ Stroud vs. Bryce Young in Carolina. Stroud has undoubtedly been the more impressive of the two so far this season, but this should be a fun game to watch with two QBs who should lead their franchises for the next few seasons or longer. We also get a fun tight end duel between Sam LaPorta and Michael Mayer, who were drafted with back-to-back picks in the early 2^nd round. LaPorta has been a stud tight end all season, but Mayer has been emerging in recent weeks.

We also get the chance to see if some highly touted rookies can build on the breakout games they had in week 7. Dalton Kincaid, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jahmyr Gibbs all posted their best days of the season and will be looking to keep it rolling in week 8. Hopefully, we’ll also get to see a bounce-back game out of Bijan Robinson after the Falcons skirted the injury-reporting rules last week and didn’t indicate that Robinson might be limited until well after their game had started. Robinson was limited to just 1 carry for the day on a handful of snaps due to headaches or some sort of illness that started Saturday night. Hopefully, he’s back to his usual self this week.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 8:

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 8: @Ten.): Last week was brutal for anyone who started Robinson in fantasy lineups. There was no warning that anything was off with the star rookie until the game started and he wasn’t getting touches. He finished the day with just 1 carry for 3 yards. All I can tell you is to flush that game from your memory. Forget that it happened. Keep tabs on the injury report and make sure Bijan is ok this week, but if he’s good to go, he should be in your lineup, even in a tough matchup with the Titans. Tennessee ranks 4^th in FTN’s run defense DVOA stat and has allowed fewer than 12 running back points per game if you throw out an uncharacteristically bad performance against the Colts’ backs, but if Bijan is back to his usual 15+ touch role, he should be treated as no worse than a high-end RB2.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 8: vs. LV): Last Sunday’s tilt with the Ravens was an ugly one for Detroit, but we finally got to see Jahmyr Gibbs in a true lead back role where he was actually used in both the run game and as a receiver (although he didn’t really produce much until garbage time). Gibbs touched the ball just 4 times in the first half as the Ravens dominated possession, but he finished with 68 yards and a score on the ground and 9-58 on 10 targets as a receiver. I wouldn’t count on 9 catches from Gibbs again this week – game script should be much more positive as an 8-point favorite – but he should continue to function as the lead back in a plus matchup while David Montgomery continues to recover from his rib injury. He could lose some goal line and short-yardage work to Craig Reynolds, but Gibbs should still see plenty of work against a Raiders’ defense that has allowed the 5^th-most RB points per game and ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA. He’s a locked and loaded RB2 this week (assuming Monty doesn’t make a miracle return).

WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Nacua faces a tough matchup against a Dallas defense that allows the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but he’s earned the benefit of the doubt by now. You don’t worry about the matchups with Puka, you just plug him into the lineup. He’s averaged 10 targets and 84 yards per game in 3 contests since Cooper Kupp returned from IR.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 8: @GB): Addison had his coming out party on Monday night against the 49ers. He wasn’t used as the obvious WR1 in Minnesota’s first game without Justin Jefferson, but that changed in week 7. Addison set season highs in targets and air yards and led the team with 4 targets on 3^rd or 4^th down. Kirk Cousins looked for him when he needed someone to make a big play, and Addison obliged, making arguably the play of the game when he ripped an interception out of the hands of Charvarius Ward and sprinted for a long TD just before halftime. Addison should continue to function as the Vikings’ lead wide receiver until Justin Jefferson is able to return. This week that means a healthy number of targets against a defense that ranks 29^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing #1 receiver, and 30^th on deep throws. Addison is a solid WR2/3 this week. I’d give him a slight downgrade if Jaire Alexander returns for the Packers this week, but not enough of one that I’d sit him without great options in front of him.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 8: @Ari.): Flowers has scored double-digit PPR points in 6 of 7 games so far this season, and the Cardinals have allowed 15+ PPR points to an opposing receiver in 5 straight games. The Cardinals rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and the Ravens have the 4^th-highest implied point total of the week. Everything shapes up for Flowers to be an easy call to start as a WR3. He’s got a safe floor and a high ceiling in this matchup. He may be a good option for DFS tournaments this week as the Cards have coughed up 148+ yards to 3 of the last 4 WR1s they faced (Aiyuk, Chase, Kupp).

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 8: vs. LV): LaPorta faced one of the toughest tight end matchups in the league last weekend (Baltimore allows fewer than 30 tight end receiving yards per game), and he finished the week as the PPR TE10 with 6 catches and 52 yards on 7 targets. LaPorta has yet to finish below the PPR TE16 in any week this season, and his matchup this week is a little more forgiving than last week’s. There may be less passing volume for Detroit this week as 8-point favorites, but LaPorta is 2^nd on the team in targets, and the Raiders have allowed the 18^th-most TE points per game and rank just 22^nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing tight ends. LaPorta remains a top-10 tight end option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 8: @Car.): Stroud hasn’t had to throw a ton in recent weeks, averaging just 30.5 pass attempts per game in his last 4 contests, but he’s still managed to average 258 passing yards per game in that stretch, and he’s thrown for multiple TDs in 4 of his last 5 games. His opponents this week, the Panthers, have allowed multiple passing TDs to each of the last 3 QBs they’ve faced, and 3 passing scores to each of the last 2. Carolina ranks just 18^th in pass defense DVOA and will likely struggle to contain the very efficient Stroud, who should have his receiving unit back at full strength with the return of Tank Dell. Stroud’s ceiling could be limited by his lower passing volume, but his recent performance trends and this matchup tell me he should be a fringe QB1 for week 8.

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Hou.): I list Young under the same header as CJ Stroud, but I don’t view them as comparable options this week. Stroud is in play for 1-QB leagues, while Young is a borderline option in 2-QB and superflex leagues. The Panthers have dropped each of their last 2 games by 3 scores, But Bryce recorded his two best fantasy games of the season in those contests and showed signs of improvement. The Panthers simplified their offense in week 6, and Young seemed to be more comfortable, at least early on in that game. He’s now had a bye week to make more strides and this week he faces a Houston team that has allowed the 9^th-most QB points per game and ranks 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. The reasonable ceiling here is probably 250 yards and 2 scores, and the floor is still low, but I like Young’s chances of cracking the top-20 QBs for the week.

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Johnson has missed 2 weeks now in the concussion protocol, so I’d be surprised if he wasn’t able to return this week. The matchup is a decent one against a Chargers’ defense that ranks 23^rd in run defense DVOA and has allowed an opposing back to reach 12+ fantasy points in each game this season, but Johnson will likely be splitting the workload with D’Onta Foreman this week after Foreman showed out against the Raiders last Sunday to the tune of 120 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. Johnson’s biggest advantage over Foreman this week will likely come in the passing game. Game script should keep the Bears throwing as 8.5-point underdogs, and while Foreman did draw 5 targets last weekend, the Bears showed a preference early in the year to use Johnson in passing situations. He was the primary option in long down & distance situations and in the 2-minute offense early in the season, and he should resume that role if he returns this week. The Chargers have allowed 4 different backs to catch at least 4 passes in their last 4 games, and the Bears’ RBs earned a 32% target share in Tyson Bagent’s first career start. Johnson has a great chance to finish as a PPR RB3 or better assuming he’s able to suit up this week.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 8: vs. NO): The injury to Anthony Richardson may not be great for the Colts’ franchise, but it’s been good for Josh Downs’ fantasy output. The Colts throw more with Gardner Minshew under center, and Downs is one of his favorite targets. In his last 5 starts in a Shane Steichen offense, Minshew has averaged 39 passing attempts and 298 yards per game. Downs has earned a 22.2% target share from Minshew this year, and he’s averaged 6 catches for 68 yards on 8.7 targets per game in Minshew’s 3 starts. He’s also found the end zone in two of them. The Saints do rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA, so this isn’t an easy matchup, but they’ve allowed the 4^th-most receiving yards and 5^th-most yards after catch to opposing slot receivers. Downs is 4^th in the NFL in WR slot snaps. For the season the Saints have allowed 12+ fantasy points to 5 different wide receivers. 3 of them play primarily in the slot. They’ve given up slot receiving lines of 7-54-1 to Adam Thielen, 3-63 to Jayden Reed, 4-45-1 to Deven Thompkins, and 6-90-1 to Christian Kirk. I wouldn’t count on another 20-point game from Downs, but there’s reason to like him as a WR3 in this matchup, even if Michael Pittman Jr. gets a bit of squeaky wheel treatment this week after complaining about his role.

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 8: @Den.): Rice has tallied 10+ PPR points in 4 of his last 5 games, logged his highest route participation rate of the season last weekend, and faces a defense this weekend that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA. Rice has seen fluctuations in his weekly route participation rate, but his targets have been consistent. He’s been targeted 5+ times in 4 of the last 5 games (and targeted 4 times in the other). He’s had a solid PPR floor as a WR3/4 option, and this week he might have a little extra ceiling against an awful Broncos’ secondary. Rice’s 53.1% slot rate means he’ll likely avoid Patrick Surtain’s coverage.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. TB): Kincaid finally had the breakout game that we’ve been waiting for all season last week. I mentioned last week that Kincaid has struggled this season because defenses haven’t treated him as a tight end when both he and Dawson Knox were on the field. They’ve lined up in nickel and dime and covered Kincaid with a cornerback. Last weekend with Knox battling a wrist injury and playing limited snaps, Kincaid finally was able to be used more as a traditional tight end, and the result was 8 catches for 75 yards on 8 targets. It’s been reported that Knox will now have wrist surgery and likely be placed on IR. That means Kincaid gets the TE role all to himself for a bit. The matchup this week isn’t great against a Tampa defense that allows the 10^th-fewest TE points per game, but a player with Kincaid’s skills playing a full-time role with Josh Allen as his QB is a sure-fire top-12 option at the position.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Demercado is right on the borderline for me this week. He was a big disappointment in week 6 after being the hot waiver pickup of the week and then totaling just 3 touches against the Rams, but his underlying usage gave reasons for hope. He still led the Cardinals backs in snaps and routes run in that game, and in week 7, he was given the lead back role we expected in week 6. The TCU product handled 13 carries and 5 targets last weekend en route to a PPR RB22 finish against what has been a stingy Seahawks run defense. He should have a similar role this week but gets a similarly tough matchup with the Ravens. Baltimore ranks 7^th in run defense DVOA and is favored by 8.5 points in this game, so I wouldn’t count on Demercado getting much going on the ground. If he’s going to produce, he’s going to have to do it through the air, where he hasn’t been particularly efficient. The Ravens have been vulnerable to receiving backs, allowing 30+ receiving yards to 4 different running backs this season, but Demercado has averaged just 4.2 yards per target on the season. He’ll have to improve on that number or find the end zone this week if he wants to repeat or improve on that RB22 finish. He’s in play as an RB3 this week, but I don’t see a ton of ceiling in a matchup where points may be at a premium for the Cardinals.

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Spears has been surprisingly productive this year for a back playing alongside Derrick Henry. He’s played over 50% of the offensive snaps in 5 out of 6 games, including 4 in a row, and he’s finished as a top-30 PPR back 4 times this season. With that in mind, he’s definitely in play this week as a flex/RB3 option in PPR leagues, but I’d take a cautious approach here with the Titans’ QB situation in flux. The expectation is that Ryan Tannehill will miss this game, and that Will Levis will get the start with Malik Willis mixing in as well. Willis in his short career has targeted running backs in the passing game at a lower rate than Tannehill, and no running back caught 20+ passes from Will Levis in his two seasons at Kentucky. I’m not sure we can expect Spears’ usual 4-5 targets in this game, and Atlanta is a tough matchup in the run game. The Falcons have allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game and rank 5^th in run defense DVOA. Only Rachaad White has caught for 30+ yards against them out of the backfield. There’s still upside for Spears if he can break off a long run or reception, but there’s more risk of a down week than usual for the rookie.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. KC): McLaughlin played just 10 snaps in week 7 as Javonte Williams got a week closer to full strength, but that may have been a result of some rare positive game script for the Broncos. There should be less of that this week against the Chiefs, who are 8-point favorites, and McLaughlin did still manage 46 scrimmage yards on the limited snaps last week. Still, even in a pass-heavy game script McLaughlin will be splitting receiving opportunities with Williams and Samaje Perine, and KC has allowed just one running back to catch more than 2 passes against them, and none to catch for more than 20 receiving yards.  With Mclaughlin’s limited role, you’ll need him to be extremely efficient to produce a fantasy-worthy performance.

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 8: @Car.): Dell finds himself in his usual landing spot this week, squarely on the start/sit borderline, but I’d place him on the wrong side of the cut line with no teams on byes. The Texans have averaged just 30.5 passing attempts per game in their last 4 games, and they’re 3-point favorites this week and shouldn’t be forced to throw much more than that average. They also have quite a few pass catchers to divvy those targets up between. The Panthers aren’t a difficult matchup, ranking just a middling 18^th in pass defense DVOA. For the season, Dell has been targeted on 22.9% of his routes against zone coverage, and the Panthers play zone at the 3^rd-highest rate in the league. This feels like the kind of game where Dell will post something like 5 catches for 60 yards, but there’s so much weekly volatility in how the Texans’ receivers are used that it’s tough to rely on him as a WR3.

WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. Cle.): DK Metcalf missed week 7’s meeting with the Cardinals, and JSN and Bobo each benefitted by seeing 5+ targets and finding the end zone. Metcalf is practicing this week and should return, but Tyler Lockett popped up on the injury report as well and missed practice Wednesday with a hamstring issue. It’s likely just precautionary, and I’d expect Lockett to play, but it’s worth monitoring. If Lockett misses this week’s game, both JSN and Bobo would get a boost again. If both Metcalf and Lockett play, Bobo would be the receiver most negatively impacted. He was putting up route participation rates in the 25-30% range prior to last week before spiking to 86% with Metcalf out. No matter what receivers are healthy, Seattle is facing arguably the toughest pass defense in the league. The Browns rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game. If both starters are healthy, Bobo is off the fantasy radar. He just won’t see enough playing time to produce against this defense. If someone is out, he becomes more of a TD dart throw. I’d lean away from using JSN as well this week, but he’s more viable. The problem for him is that the Browns play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and JSN just isn’t as effective at getting open vs. man coverage. Roto Underworld credits him with a 37% route win rate vs. man coverage compared to 54% vs. zone. I’d expect most of the WR production this week to go to Metcalf and Lockett. Even if Lockett sits, I’d treat JSN as a WR4 option in the tough matchup.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Hou.): Mingo was in a route on nearly every Carolina passing dropback in week 6 ahead of their bye, but he earned just 3 targets on 38 Bryce Young pass attempts in that game. We still haven’t seen Mingo reach double-digit PPR points despite playing a full-time role and averaging 6 targets per game. He’s mostly running routes to create space for Adam Thielen. I wouldn’t count on this week being the one where Mingo has a breakout game. The Texans have allowed the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and week 6 was the first game of the Panthers new ‘simplified’ offense for Bryce Young, and Mingo saw his lowest target total of the year in that game. I’m not sure a bounce-back is coming this week. I’d take it as a pleasant surprise if Mingo topped 50 yards for the first time this season.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Wilson disappointed last weekend with just 3 catches for 26 yards in a matchup vs. the zone-heavy Seahawks. This week he faces off with the Ravens, who rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA and are in the top-6 in the league in man coverage rate. Wilson has drawn a target on just 5.7% of his matchups vs. man coverage compared with an 18.8% target rate vs. zone. Wilson has caught for 50+ yards in 4 of 7 games this year, and there’s still upside here in a game where Arizona is almost certain to be playing from behind and throwing, but this doesn’t look like the type of matchup where Wilson has thrived this year. With no byes on the schedule, there are likely better options on your roster than Wilson this week.

WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Hyatt’s increased playing time finally resulted in a big performance last week as he pulled in receptions of 42 and 33 yards and set a season-high with 5 targets. He’s going to continue to operate as the Giants’ WR2 going forward, and he should keep seeing a few deep targets per game as long as Tyrod Taylor is under center, but this week he gets a tough matchup to cash in those opportunities. The Jets are on track to get both starting cornerbacks - Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed - back from injury this week, and for the season they allow the fewest WR points per game and rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. They’ve given up just 5 completions of 25+ yards to opposing wide receivers this year. Hyatt’s deep targets mean he has a chance to put up a solid game on just a few opportunities, but I wouldn’t count on him doing so in this matchup.

WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 8: vs. KC): Mims ran more routes than Brandon Johnson for just the 2^nd time all season in week 7. That only amounted to 14 routes and 1 uncatchable target in a game where the Broncos played from ahead for once, but they should be back to their usual trailing game script and throwing a bunch against the Chiefs this weekend. Mims still isn’t playing enough to be counted on for fantasy lineups, especially against a defense that allows the 8^th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 6^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. He’ll need to make a splash play or two to return value this week, and while deep targets have been there for Mims, he’s recorded negative 7 scrimmage yards in the past 3 weeks combined. There’s more upside here than meets the eye if his increased playing time continues in trailing game script, but he’s still not really worth consideration outside of leagues that give points for return yards.

TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Musgrave’s season got off to a promising start, but his usage since suffering a week 4 concussion has been less than inspiring. Prior to the concussion, he had run a route on over 80% of the Packers’ dropbacks in each of the first 3 games of the year and tallied over 70 air yards in two of them. In the two full games he’s played since, that route participation rate has been around 70%, and he’s been under 20 air yards in each game. He’s still seeing a healthy number of targets (6 per game in the last two contests), but his 10 catches in those games turned into just 64 yards. The Vikings have been just a middling tight end defense, allowing the 15^th-most points per game to the position, but George Kittle is the only starting tight end to average more than 6 yards per target against them. Musgrave will probably be hard pressed to get to 50 yards this week, which means you’re counting on a TD for him to post a useful fantasy week. He’s probably still a top 15-18 option at the position, but there are safer choices you can use at tight end this week with no teams on byes.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): It looks like Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be able to return this week barring a setback, but even if O’Connell gets the nod, I’d probably look elsewhere in 2-QB formats. The rookie has shown an ability to move the ball in the two games where he’s seen action, but he’s also turned the ball over 4 times in just a game and a quarter. The Lions have been vulnerable to QBs, coughing up the 8^th-most fantasy points per game to the position largely because opposing teams have been chasing them on the scoreboard, but they still rank 9^th in pass defense DVOA and should be playing with an edge after getting trounced by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week. This isn’t the week you want to catch the Lions’ defense if you’re a rookie QB. I would treat O’Connell as a bottom-5 starting option this week if by some chance he gets the start.

QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Ryan Tannehill has been battling an ankle injury that could keep him out this week, and head coach Mike Vrabel said that if Tannehill misses this game, Levis will start, but Malik Willis will mix in as well. You don’t need me to tell you that you shouldn’t start either QB of a Titans’ team that ranks 32^nd in pass attempts and 30^th in passing yards if 2 QBs are splitting the job. The Falcons rank just 29^th in pass defense DVOA, but that’s not enough for me to consider using Levis in his first NFL action. He’s worth monitoring in case he shows out, but he shouldn’t be doing it from in your lineup.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. Cle.): Charbonnet’s ancillary role in this offense behind Kenneth Walker III has value in weeks where Seattle can play from ahead against bad run defenses. This isn’t one of those weeks. Seattle is favored by a field goal against Cleveland this weekend, but the Browns rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA and have allowed just one running back to reach double-digit fantasy points against them on fewer than 14 touches. Charbs hasn’t logged more than 10 touches in any game this season. With no teams on byes, he’s in the RB4/RB5 range this week. This changes if Kenneth Walker is unable to play on Sunday. Walker, like teammate Tyler Lockett, popped up on the injury report as a DNP (did not practice) on Wednesday. If Walker sits, Charbonnet catapults up to the range of a low-end RB2 even in a tough matchup.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Miller logged just 3 offensive snaps and didn’t record a single touch last week with Jamaal Williams back from injury against the Jaguars. Williams didn’t play a ton either as Alvin Kamara dominated the backfield work. Head Coach Dennis Allen said that the plan going forward is to get Miller and Williams more involved and balance out those touches more, but I don’t know how you can rely on a running back who has touched the ball more than 3 times just once in the last 4 games, even when he’s facing a defense that allows the 6^th-most RB points per game. The one game in that span with extended work for Kendre was a 34-0 drubbing of the Patriots. I don’t expect that kind of lopsided game this week, where the Saints are 1-point underdogs to the Colts.

RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Evans seemed to be in line for a significant workload last weekend after both Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers were placed on IR, but instead the Rams promoted Royce Freeman from the practice squad and signed Darrell Henderson off the street and let that duo handle all of the running back reps. Evans wasn’t on the field for a single offensive snap, and I don’t see that changing much this week.

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 8: @Pit.): Bigsby has totaled just 13 carries and 2 targets in the last 5 games combined. He continues to be off the fantasy radar unless something happens to Travis Etienne.

RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 8: @Ari.): The Ravens were up 28-0 by the middle of the 2^nd quarter last weekend, and Mitchell still only managed to play two snaps and touched the ball just once. If he’s not going to be involved even in garbage time, there’s no reason to roster him.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Tucker hasn’t played an offensive snap since week 3. He’s limited to just special teams now.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Palmer set a new season-high with 32 routes run last week against Atlanta, but he was targeted just twice, making his 6-target game in week 6 look more like an aberration than a sign of an increasing role. The Bucs’ targets will continue to be funneled to Evans & Godwin, and Palmer will continue to battle with Cade Otton, Deven Tompkins, and Rachaad White for what’s left over. I wouldn’t expect a big target total this week against a Buffalo defense that ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR3.

WRs Quentin Johnston & Derius Davis, LAC (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): Johnston set a season-high last week for receiving yards with just 20. He’s running a sizeable number of routes, but he hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times in any game this season. He was outproduced in fantasy points last week by rookie teammate Derius Davis, who ran all of 5 routes against the Chiefs. At some point, the Chargers are going to actually get Johnston more involved, and maybe it happens this week against a bad Bears’ defense, but I’d be much more willing to live with it if he had a blow-up game from my bench than if he had another 2–3-point game from in my lineup. Davis just isn’t playing enough snaps to be worth consideration.

WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Scott was in a route on nearly 70% of the Bears’ dropbacks in week 7 (a season-high), but that turned into just 2 catches for 19 yards on 3 targets. He also added 14 rushing yards as a bonus, but with Bagent at QB, the Bears’ passing game likely won’t be explosive enough for an ancillary receiver like Scott to be fantasy-relevant. I liked his upside last week as a deep threat against a bad Raiders’ defense but won’t go back to that well against a bad Chargers’ defense given Bagent’s 2-yard aDOT last weekend. If Bagent isn’t going to push the ball down the field, Scott isn’t going to provide fantasy value.

WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): Tucker was over a 50% route participation rate for the 2^nd game in a row last week, but he didn’t see the same deep targets he did in week 6. Tucker will always be fighting for the scraps left over by Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs, so if those few targets he sees are short ones, there’s not a lot of fantasy value there. His aDOT prior to week 7 was 27 yards. His aDOT in week 7 was just 7.3 yards. Maybe the long targets return with Jimmy Garoppolo likely back under center, but both of Tucker’s multi-target games have occurred while Jimmy G was sidelined with injury.  

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Anthony Richardson, IND, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RBs De’Von Achane & Christopher Brooks, MIA, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 8: @LAC): Bagent acquitted himself well in his first NFL start, executing a conservative game plan well in an impressive victory over the Raiders. He completed over 70% of his passes, but his average throw traveled just 2 yards downfield, and he averaged a meager 5.6 yards per attempt. I’d expect a similar gameplan this week, but this is a great matchup for any QB. The Bears are 8.5-point underdogs this week, so Bagent likely won’t get away with throwing fewer than 30 passes again, and the Chargers have allowed the most QB fantasy points per game and rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA. The ceiling here isn’t high even in this great matchup, but don’t be shocked if Bagent dinks and dunks his way to a low-end QB2 finish for the week. 5 out of the 6 QBs to face the Chargers this year have topped 20 fantasy points.

WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Reed’s usage hasn’t quite been what we’d hope for since Christian Watson’s return to the lineup. Reed averaged 6.3 targets and 50 yards per game in the first 4 games of the year (including week 4 when Watson played limited snaps in his first game back), but he’s averaged just 3 targets and 14 yards in the two games since, and logged route participation rates below 60% in both games. That kind of workload means he’s probably not a starting option in most leagues, but he does get a decent matchup this week. The Vikings have allowed the 7^th-most receiver points per game, and they’ve allowed the 8^th-most receiving yards and 2^nd-most yards after the catch to opposing slot receivers. When you pair that with Reed’s usage in scoring range (he’s got 6 of the team’s 14 targets within 10 yards of the end zone), there’s some sneaky upside here in deep leagues or in DFS lineups.

WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 8: @Mia.): The return of JuJu Smith-Schuster from the concussion protocol is enough to prevent me from giving a full-throated endorsement of Douglas for this week, but at some point, the Patriots have got to realize what they have here. Douglas is consistently earning targets when he’s on the field (25% target per route run rate), and he leads the receiver group in yards per target and yards per route run. The Patriots just have to keep giving him routes. If he plays the same role he did last week (71% route participation rate) against a Miami defense that allows the 9^th-most WR points per game, he’s a viable WR4/5 option. I don’t trust that will happen with JuJu back, but Douglas shouldn’t be sitting on the waiver wire in deeper leagues. He’s just 5% rostered on Sleeper.

WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 8: @SF): Iosivas isn’t an option for this week, but now would be a good time to scoop him off your league waiver wire in dynasty leagues if he’s still available. The Bengals are coming off a bye week, so most folks aren’t rushing to add the Bengals’ depth guys this week, but Iosivas has sneakily started to see his playing time increase, and he’s impressed in his limited opportunities. He was an un-thrown coach’s challenge flag away from a dazzling toe-tap catch in week 5 and followed that up with his first career TD in week 6 ahead of the bye week. He’s still only run 21 routes in the last two games, but it seems the Bengals may be grooming him to be the Tee Higgins replacement in 2024. He’s a much better perimeter option than Trenton Irwin, Tyler Boyd, or Charlie Jones, and he may have a few spike game opportunities this season given Higgins’ issues with staying on the field in recent seasons. Higgins has left games early with an injury 4 times since the start of last season and was inactive for another, and he’s currently battling a rib injury that he said may bother him all season. With that said, anything you get from Iosivas this year should be seen as a bonus. This is a dynasty stash with 2024 in mind.

TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 8: @Det.): Mayer’s usage took a step backward last weekend after his breakout game in week 6. He’s still playing ahead of Austin Hooper as the Raiders’ lead tight end, but a 52% route participation rate isn’t what you’re looking for from a TE1. That doesn’t mean he can’t have a useful fantasy day in week 8. The Lions have allowed the 2^nd-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and have allowed 5 different tight ends to pull in at least 4 receptions against them. That overall points per game number is skewed a bit by the big game from Mark Andrews last weekend, but I’d still expect a handful of targets to go Mayer’s way. He’s a passable fill-in this week if you’re in a pinch at the position, and he could be a fun play in showdown DFS contests for Monday Night Football.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Random observation here …

We have a bit of an anomaly this week. Throughout most of the season we have to deal with bye weeks. Whether it is our fantasy teams or not being able to get more points in a week of a confidence pool, we have to deal with a stretch of the season where someone won’t be playing.

This week though, in the heart of it all, guess who has a bye week … … … bye weeks!

Yes, all 32 teams will be taking the field this weekend. It’s a good thing, too – after the last couple of weeks, we need more points!

Week 8 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – DETROIT over Tennessee – No Hutchinson, no Jameson … not a problem this week.

15 – Baltimore over CLEVELAND – Would you stand in front of Derrick Henry? My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE RAVENS WILL WIN THE SUPER BOWL.

14 – Kansas City over LAS VEGAS – Well thank goodness the Chiefs made a trade to FINALLY get an offensive weapon!

13 – DENVER over Carolina – The Broncos being this high at any point in the season can’t have been on anyone’s Bingo card.

12 – PITTSBURGH over New York Giants – Seems like the clock is officially ticking on the Danie Jones era.

11 – HOUSTON over Indianapolis – The Texans lost that week … don’t see that happening too often this season.

10 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over New Orleans – Hopefully you all see why Derek Carr should get more appreciation now.

9 – SAN FRANCISCO over Dallas – Oh boy do the 9ers need this one.

8 – Minnesota over LOS ANGELES RAMS – Receivers are all either being traded or are injured … ask the Rams about the latter.

7 – Buffalo over SEATTLE – Pretty sure this win might clinch the AFC East for the Bills.

6 – New York Jets over NEW ENGLAND – I think Davante Adams is just glad he doesn’t have to play the Steelers for a third straight week.

5 – CINCINNATI over Philadelphia – This was supposed to be Game of the Week material … yet here we are.

4 – Green Bay over JACKSONVILLE – No bye week after two weeks in London? Not ideal for the Jags.

3 – WASHINGTON over Chicago – This will be fun to watch this week…and for years to come.

2 – Atlanta over TAMPA BAY – Hard to win a game when you have basically no one to throw the ball to.

1 – MIAMI over Arizona – This should go up several lines if Tua ends up playing.