Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

The last two weeks have gone just how I like it. My picks have won in blowout fashion and given me supreme confidence in my picking abilities. After the first quarter Houston was ahead 2-0 and I had to double take that I wasn't seeing the MLB playoff scores, but then Arizona scored 17 in the 2nd and never looked back.

This week's pick should be another slam dunk. I was considering a few different teams I like this week but when I heard the Jets were trading for Joe Flacco, I knew my choice was made. The Cincinnati Bengals will wipe the floor with Jets starting QB Mike White. Maybe there could be a slight let down after the beating Cincinnati put on the Ravens last week, but the talent gap is too large to lose to a guy getting his first start. Burrow and Chase have been probably the most exciting WR/QB duo going this season. I expect an easy Bengals win and cover of the 10.5 point spread and seeing that I am writing this from fabulous Las Vegas, I will be putting my money where my mouth is.

Cheers! Drink Five!

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

37 Pass Completions

Jets QB Mike White set an NFL record with 37 pass completions in his very first start, but the fun numbers from the game did not stop there. White set the second-highest yardage total in a first start with 406, which was good for the most yardage so far in Week 8. White posted the highest yardage total for a Jets QB since Vinny Testaverde in 2000. White finished the Week as the QB2 in fantasy, the best of the QBs who are not owned in many leagues in a week dominated by guys like that. 5 of the top 10 QBs this week, so far, are not rostered on any team in the drinkfive.com league and have an average ownership rate of just under 30% in Fleaflicker leagues. White has certainly earned himself a chance to start another week or two, and may even find himself as the permanent starter if he continues to play at a high level like this. It’s really a tough break for all of us who said “Mike White? Who the hell is that?” and proceeded to pick the Bengals in our survivor pools.

331 Yards Per Game

Tom Brady, at age 44, is currently dominating in many statistical passing categories. He currently leads the league in completions, pass attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. He is the QB1 on the season with 206.9 total fantasy points in just 8 games. Only Josh Allen has a higher PPG average than Brady, but sits as the QB2 due to bye weeks. Allen isn’t really putting up the passing numbers that Brady is either, with Allen’s fantasy points bolstered by 269 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs. But, back to Brady, who put up another ho-hum performance yesterday of 375 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. Heck, he even threw a touchdown to the wrong team yesterday, which is the only thing that keeps him from passing the aforementioned Mike White as the QB2 for the week. Brady’s huge offensive output has kept 3 of his WRs as regular starts, when healthy. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown are all in the top 22 WRs by total fantasy points. If you look at them on a points per game basis, they are all ranked in the top 19.

137 Rush Yards

Elijah Mitchell is the only running back so far in Week 8 to have surpassed the 100 rushing yard mark. In an era where the traditional running back role seems to be disappearing week by week – and we lost our #1 boy this week, perhaps for the season – it’s increasingly rare to find someone top 100 yards rushing. This doesn’t mean that RBs are necessarily going away, they just get their points in a variety of ways. This week, 23 RBs had at least 10 points or more, so there’s plenty of good players out there still, but it’s so clear that this is a passing league now. 8 wide receivers passed the century mark on Sunday (no RBs or TEs joined them with 100+ receiving yards). Speaking of passers – the only other player with 100+ rushing yards this week is Justin Fields, who had 103 yards in a losing effort against Mitchell’s 49ers. Perhaps it’s fitting that the last bastion of 100-yard rushers is Soldier Field, for this week anyway.

4 WRs with 10+ Receptions

Illustrating my point about this being a passing-dominated league, which I suppose I seem to make at least a couple of times per year, is the fact that this week had the most players with 10+ catches of any this year. This week, we saw Tyler Lockett, Cole Beasley, A.J. Brown, and Michael Pittman all catch at least 4 passes. All but Pittman went over 100 yards as well, but Pittman managed to find the end zone twice, so we’ll still give him an A+ for his fantasy day. There were 3 weeks with 3 WRs at 10+ receptions, and 3 weeks with just 1 WR with 10+ receptions. Even with the 17^th game added this season, the season-long receptions record, set by Michael Thomas in 2019, seems perfectly safe. Currently, Cooper Kupp leads the league in receptions and is only on pace for about 133 receptions on the year, good for just 5^th on the all-time list. Also, an honorable mention must go to T.J. Hockenson, the only non-WR to crack the 10 receptions mark this week. In fact, kudos to Hockenson, who has currently the TE1 on the week without even finding the end zone.

38.7 Receiving Yards Per Game

Odell Beckham Jr. has really fallen from the heights of the top WRs in the league. With just 38.7 yards per game, he is a long way from his 80.3 career average (it was 83.3 going into this season). In Odell’s rookie year, he led the league with 108.8 yards per game, and he posted double-digit TDs in each of his first 3 seasons. He now has just a 50% catch rate on the year (61% going into the season). He posted a season-low 1.1 fantasy points this week, his 4^th game of the year where he is below just 5 points. Odell is not alone, however. Allen Robinson has had an equally disappointing fantasy season. Since week 1, he has not topped 4 receptions in a game, and in 2021, he has not broken into double-digit fantasy points once. He is at less than half his yards per game, 33.9, than he had in his first 3 seasons in Chicago, 70.0. Robinson is the WR63 for the season, a truly terrible mark for someone who has not missed a game this year.

Let me just clear something up really quick –

I recently talked about how much mediocrity there seems to be in the league this season. Don’t get me wrong, I still feel that way – doesn’t really seem like to many teams want to grab that proverbial brass ring.

But in no way does that mean that the quality of the games have taken a hit (well, with the exception of Thursday Night games…and maybe that will change this week). For those like me who are watching the RedZone channel, the period between 2:30 and 3:00 (CST) has been the most exhilarating half-hour stretch of the week.

We may not have many juggernauts, but my goodness we are still getting great football to watch!

Hooray for football!

Week 8 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

15 – BUFFALO over Green Bay – It’s…it’s just fun seeing the Packers on the wrong side of the top line, isn’t it?

14 – DALLAS over Chicago – Back-to back games against the NFC North is a solid additional rehab program for a returning Dak Prescott.

13 – PHILADELPHIA over Pittsburgh – The Eagles defense would have been a lot for Kenny Pickett to deal with BEFORE the addition of Robert Quinn.

12 – JACKSONVILLE over Denver (in London) – Nathaniel Hackett should double check his ticket to London…might very well be a one-way ticket.

11 – MINNESOTA over Arizona – Justin Jefferson…DeAndre Hopkins…take the over.

10 – NEW YORK JETS over New England – Jets fans have been waiting decades for this game.

9 – ATLANTA over Carolina – PJ Walker can’t play Tom Brady EVERY week (…checks notes…is that right?)

8 – Miami over DETROIT – Safe to say that the Hard Knocks hysteria is over.

7 – HOUSTON over Tennessee – This just seems like a game the Texans can squeak out.

6 – Baltimore over TAMPA BAY – Originally a potential Super Bowl preview, now its just a way for the whole country to see Tome Brady’s demise!

5 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over San Francisco – NFC Championship rematch – same place, different feel…but same result.

4 – SEATTLE over New York Giants – Now here is a potential NFC Championship matchup for this year…as we all predicted back in August.

3 – Cincinnati over CLEVELAND – The Bengals seem like they might be getting things together. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that JOE BURROW WILL THROW FOR OVER 450 yards.

2 – Las Vegas over NEW ORLEANS – Road wins against the mediocre are a necessity for the Raiders to get back on track.

1 – Washington over INDIANAPOLIS – Took us eight weeks to get to a Bryce Young Bowl.