Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

47.6 Fantasy Points

For the second week in a row, we have a new season-high fantasy point scorer. Dalvin Cook defeated the Green Bay Packers, and he did not require a whole lot of help from the rest of his team. Cook touched the ball a whopping 32 times, had 226 yards from scrimmage, and scored 4 TDs. He led his team in both rushing and receiving on Sunday, which is impressive when you have two top WRs on your team. Of course, that’s likely to happen when you have 70% of your team’s total offense. Cook had an absurd 1.5 points per touch during the game. He was so efficient that Kirk Cousins only needed to attempt 14 passes – his second-fewest attempts in a start in his career. On the season, Dalvin Cook, the RB2, is averaging an impressive 1.14 points per touch, second only to Alvin Kamara who is the RB1 and averaging 1.16 per touch. They’re the only RBs in the top 10 who are averaging over 1 point per touch on the season.

5 of the Top 10 RBs

Using our drinkfive.com fantasy league as a metric, we see that this week, 5 of the top 10 RBs are not even rostered. It’s been an interesting week, setting aside the fact that Dalvin Cook outscored the 2^nd and 3^rd highest scoring RBs by 5.5 points. The probably-soon-to-be-rostered list contains DeeJay Dallas, Zack Moss, Jordan Wilkins, Nyheim Hines (awesome TD celebrations buddy!), and Damien Harris. On average, they are only owned in 40% of Fleaflicker leagues but definitely helped you win the week if you were bold enough to insert any of them in your lineup. It was a low scoring week, where the RB2, Giovani Bernard, only topped out at 21.3 points. In fact, our guy Dalvin Cook was only 1.5 points shy of scoring as many as the 8^th-10^th ranked RBs on the week. The waiver wire will be active with RBs this week but remember that Dallas will be replaced by returning starters, Moss is in a split backfield, and Harris is on a team that is notoriously bad at sticking with one RB. Finally, I have no clue what to make of the Indy backfield. Clearly Jonathan Taylor has angered the gods (or just Chuck Pagano) in some hideous manner.

3^rd Time as QB1 in 2020

Patrick Mahomes absolutely lit up the Jets, a minor league football team that plays its games out of New Jersey. For some reason, this game counts as an actual game in all historical statistics and for the official NFL record. Perhaps the most fun item from the game is that Le’Veon Bell, Chiefs running back, was the highest-paid Jets player on the field. He would have finished 2^nd on the team in yards from scrimmage with a whopping 37 too. But I digress - two years ago, I gushed about Mahomes in nearly every weekly column, but he’s been mostly absent this year, so let me make up for that now. On Sunday, he had his best passing performance of the year, completing 31 of 42 passes for 416 yards and 5 TDs, good for a 144.4 passing rating. The latter number, of course, making little sense since his performance was basically perfect, but his rating was not. This is the third time this season that Mahomes finishes as the QB1 for the week. What’s amazing is that Russell Wilson, who has played 1 fewer game, is still the QB1 on the season, leaving Mahomes as the QB2 in fantasy football, but the QB1 in our hearts.

7-0 Steelers

There’s not a ton of fantasy numbers to crunch out of the Pittsburgh Steelers this week. This tends to be the case when your D/ST outscores all of your position players. As a team though, they are very impressive. Their 7-0 start is tied for the best in franchise history with the 1978 team, which won the Super Bowl. This team also has recorded at least 1 sack in 64 straight games (that’s 4 seasons) and is closing in on the all-time record of 69 games which was set by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the early 2000s. The lack of fantasy dominance in a dominant team is frustrating for casual fans, but not for Steelers fans, which the drinkfive staff is lousy with. On Sunday they got the best of Lamar Jackson, forcing his first-ever pick-six very early in the game and sacking him 4 times. The Ravens now fall to 2 games behind the Steelers, who should have a very easy time next week against the Cowboys, where, I can only assume, Ben DiNucci will be musing about what horses want when they are hungry.

7 TDs by Two Players

A few fun random stats that didn’t fit elsewhere. The Vikings-Packers game saw 7 touchdowns scored…by only 2 players. In addition to the aforementioned Dalvin Cook’s 4 TDs, Davante Adams was responsible for all three TDs for the Green Bay Packers. The Chargers lost after giving up a 17-point lead for the third time this season, an NFL record for consecutive losses. Tua Tagovailoa started and won, but it was about as ugly as it could be with just 5.72 fantasy points and none of his receivers reaching 20 yards. Drew Brees again holds the NFL record with 560 passing TDs, but perhaps only for a day. Tom Brady is at 559 and plays tonight against the hapless Giants. Finally, Tuesday is a very important day. The NFL trade deadline is at 4 pm ET. Oh yeah, there’s also a bit of an election going on. GO VOTE!

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve now made it halfway through the fantasy regular season, and you should have a pretty good idea of whether your team is in good position for the playoffs, or if you have some work to do to get back in the hunt. Keep grinding even if you don’t feel great about where you’re at right now. A big second half can still get you back into your league playoff picture.

By this point in the season, we’ve seen 3 rookies truly establish themselves as every-week must starts: Najee Harris, Ja’Marr Chase, and Kyle Pitts. I know that you already know to start them every week, but they’re still going to show up in the report as ‘Rookies to Start’ each week unless something drastic happens, and I’ll still include some tidbits about what to expect from them each week. This is the point in the year when we start to see some late-blooming rookies asserting themselves a bit more, and being able to pinpoint which rookies will step up can give you an edge if you’re trying to get back into contention. I’m here to help you do just that as we head into week 8.

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. There are a LOT of running backs listed as ‘Borderline’ this week, so please keep this in mind and read what’s written about each. Let’s dive into week 8…

Rookies to Start:

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 8: @Cle.): This probably isn’t a ceiling week for Najee against what’s been a strong Cleveland run defense, but the rookie has scored at least 16 fantasy points in 5 straight games and should be locked into starting lineups. The Browns rank 3^rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed the 6^th-fewest running back points per game. Harris shouldn’t be a chalky DFS play this week, but he’s still a safe starter in season-long leagues.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 8: @NYJ): This week feels like a bit of a trap game for Chase. The Jets have played from behind a lot this season, and as a result they’ve been bleeding a ton of points to running backs, but not so many to wide receivers. They’ve given up 6 and half more RB points per game than any other team in the league, and the 3^rd-fewest per game to wide receivers. There may be plenty of Joe Mixon in this game, but Chase is still going to get his. He’s been targeted 9+ times in 3 of the last 4 games, and against the Jets’ undermanned defense, he should have no problem making it 8 games in a row of 10+ fantasy points even if his volume dips a bit. The Jets rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA.

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 8: @Det.): I won’t fault you if you’re a little gun-shy about getting Smith into your lineup since the Eagles’ inconsistent passing game seems to have capped his ceiling, but this is as good a spot as you’ll find to fire him up. Smith has seen 38% of the Eagles’ air yards this season, and no team has been burned down the field as consistently as the Lions. Detroit allows the highest average yards before catch per completion in the league, and Smith and QB Jalen Hurts will likely connect on a few balls of 15+ yards in this one. DeVonta has WR2 upside against a Detroit defense that ranks 27^th in pass defense DVOA.

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 8: @KC): Toney and teammate Kenny Golladay are both practicing as of Thursday, so both players seem to be on track to play Monday night, but Toney is the one I would want to play in lineups. Toney was dominating the looks and production in this offense the last couple games he played in, and the Chiefs rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. There should be plenty of passing volume for the Giants in this one, and if Toney is close to 100%, I like his chances at 7+ targets against a porous pass defense. If you plan to play Kadarius, keep an eye on the injury report and make sure he’s good to go, or make sure you have a backup plan in case he winds up inactive, but he’s going to reward fantasy managers who take the risk if he plays. He doesn’t have the safe floor that Smith or Chase do, but he’s got a WR1 ceiling.

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): A lot of people treated Kyle Pitts’ huge day in London as his true breakout game, but it was nothing compared to what he did in week 7. Yes, he scored more fantasy points in London than he did this past week by virtue of finding the end zone, but the way he piled up his stats against the Dolphins was more impressive. He beat man coverage and made circus downfield catches repeatedly on his way to over 160 yards receiving, and he did so with Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage back on the field after both missed the London trip. Yes, there will be more games where Pitts’ usage is puzzlingly low, but you’ve now seen the ceiling and why you can’t sit him if you have him. The Panthers have been above average against tight ends this year, but they’ve also allowed three tight end scores in the last 4 games.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 8: @Sea.): After a truly awful start to the season, Trevor Lawrence has looked more like the number 1 pick in recent weeks, limiting turnovers and keeping his team in games. The Jaguars have limited his passing volume with a heavy dose of James Robinson, but that hasn’t stopped the rookie from averaging 265 passing yards per game in his last 3. The Seahawks have been a very burnable secondary, ranking 25^th in pass defense DVOA. I expect Seattle will want to slow the game down with Geno Smith at QB, so a 300-yard day probably isn’t in the offing for Trevor, but he should be a solid mid-range QB2 in this one.

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 8: @Atl.): Chuba is coming off his worst game since stepping in for the injured Christian McCaffrey, but Atlanta seems like the perfect opponent to bounce back against. The Falcons have coughed up the 9^th-most RB points per game and rank 28^th in run defense DVOA, and have allowed double-digit fantasy points to an opposing back in every game but the one against Tampa. The Bucs have the 2^nd-lowest run rate in the league. Chuba has been losing some passing down work to Royce Freeman most weeks, but he’s still handled at least 15 touches in each of the last 4 games. As long as the Panthers are in this game, Hubbard is going to be heavily involved. He’s a solid RB2 option despite the letdown game last week.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 8: @Det.): With the injury to Miles Sanders, Gainwell is in line for a much bigger workload in week 8. He’ll share backfield duties with Boston Scott, and both could be start-able facing off with a Detroit defense that allows the 4^th-most RB points per game. Detroit ranks just 21^st in run defense DVOA, so both backs should have some success on the ground. Boston Scott saw 3 rushing attempts inside the 10 yard-line last week while Gainwell saw just 1, but Detroit is just as likely to give up a receiving score to a running back as a rushing one (6 of each allowed so far). The plus matchup, the Eagles implied point total of 25.75 this week, and Gainwell’s extensive usage as a receiver give him the edge over the backs listed after him in this section.

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Herbert has handled at least 18 rushing attempts in each of the Bears last 3 games and should continue to operate as the lead back until David Montgomery returns. I do think Damien Williams will be more involved on passing downs this week than he was last week (he missed the entire practice week on the Covid list last week), and the Bears aren’t likely to be in as deep a hole on the scoreboard as they were last week, so Herbert probably won’t repeat his 5 receptions from last week. That shouldn’t be a huge concern as rushing volume is going to carry the day for Herbert again. The 49ers are a solid run defense, but nowhere near as stout as the Bucs defense Herbert shredded in week 7. He should be on the cusp of another RB2 week.

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 8: @Chi.): On the other side of the Bears-49ers tilt, Elijah Mitchell will continue to lead the 49ers’ backfield this week. JaMycal Hasty did play a bigger role than I anticipated in his first game off the IR, playing about a third of the offensive snaps, but Mitchell was the ballcarrier on 18 of the team’s 21 RB rushing attempts. There is some risk that Hasty’s involvement grows as he gets further out from his injury, but I would expect Mitchell’s stranglehold on the early down work to continue for now. Mitchell hasn’t been as consistently efficient as Khalil Herbert, and Mitchell has had virtually zero passing game usage. That’s why I’d give Herbert a slight edge over Mitchell this week in spite of the 49ers being a better run defense than the Bears have been. Both are reasonable options if you need a fill-in RB2 or high-end flex running back.

RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): Carter has clearly established himself as the lead back for the Jets right now, as his share of backfield touches has gone from 56% to 59% to 63% in the last 3 games, and the switch to Mike White at QB could benefit him in the receiving game this week. 14 of White’s 32 attempts after replacing Zach Wilson last week were intended for Carter or Ty Johnson, with 9 of them going to Carter. The Bengals have allowed the 2^nd-most receptions per game to running backs. The concern for Carter is that there just isn’t going to be much production on the ground, and there is minimal TD upside. The Jets have an implied total of just 16.5 points, and the Bengals rank 5^th in run defense DVOA. Carter is a deeper flex option in PPR leagues.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Williams turned in a strong performance Thursday night against the Browns despite rushing for just 20 yards. It was his receiving usage that paved the way as he set a season-high with 6 receptions and scored a receiving touchdown. He’s now caught at least 3 passes in 5 consecutive games, but the return of Jerry Jeudy is going to pull targets from somewhere. This is another week where Williams could struggle to be productive on the ground. Washington ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA and give up the bulk of the damage they allow through the air. Javonte is likely going to need another ceiling receiving week to be a useful fantasy starter, and I don’t think that’s very likely with Jeudy back. Javonte’s full-on timeshare with Melvin Gordon caps him enough that I wouldn’t play him over any of the other rookie backs listed above.

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Waddle has now played 3 full games with starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and he’s scored at least 15 PPR points in all 3. This week’s matchup is a tough one though. The Bills are allowing the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, and rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA. Slot corner Taron Johnson is allowing just 4.6 yards per target and a 65.6 passer rating on throws into his coverage. Waddle is still likely to be peppered with targets in this game, so volume should get him into the PPR WR3 range. Just know there is more risk in this matchup than we’ve seen in the last couple weeks with Waddle.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 8: @LAC): Week 7 illustrated exactly why fantasy football managers are more excited about Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson this year despite Mac clearly playing the best ball of that group. Jones put on a clinic in week 7, throwing for more than 400 yards against the hapless Jets in a game where the Patriots piled up more than 50 points…and he barely cracked the top-10 QBs for the week. New England has the 6^th-highest run rate in the red zone (they were the highest in 2020), and Mac isn’t the guy running the ball. He isn’t adding points with his legs, and the team’s penchant for running in the red zone caps Mac’s ceiling. He gets a much tougher matchup this week against the Chargers. LA has allowed the 5^th-fewest QB points per game and ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA. This isn’t a spot to trot Jones out there even in 2-QB lineups.

QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Even with 81 rushing yards in the last two weeks, Fields hasn’t managed to post a 15-point fantasy day yet. There’s no way to reasonably recommend starting Fields given how bad this offense has looked in recent weeks, even in 2 QB formats. It’s promising that Fields is running the ball more, and at some point, the Bears will probably get things on track and get the rookie to a solid fantasy game. Unfortunately, no one will have him in their lineups when it finally happens. 

QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 8: vs. LAR): Another week, another matchup against one of the best defenses in the NFL for Mills. Mills will be making his 6^th start of the season this week (assuming Tyrod Taylor isn’t ready to return), and he’ll be facing a team ranked in the top-10 in pass defense DVOA for the 4^th time, and a team in the top-5 for the 3^rd time. In those first 3 meetings with top-10 defenses, Mills totaled 390 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 5 turnovers. There is no format where you should feel good about starting Davis Mills this week.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 8: @LAC): Stevenson flashed some surprising receiving skills in week 6, and then was back to being a healthy scratch in week 7. Bill Belichick loves to toy with us fantasy managers. Stevenson may be active again this week, but you certainly can’t count on it. The Chargers rank dead last in run defense DVOA, so there is upside for Stevenson if he sees any opportunity in this game, but I don’t expect him to see much of that.

RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Nick Chubb is expected to return this week, but even with Chubb sidelined, Felton was on the field for just 22 snaps and handled 5 touches last Thursday against the Broncos. Chubb’s return means we’ll likely only see Felton for a handful of snaps again. Even if Chubb isn’t back, Felton will be mostly the passing down back against a Steelers defense that allows the 7^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 8: @Chi): Sermon is now behind both Elijah Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty on the depth chart (and possibly Kyle Juszczyk too). Just don’t.

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 8: vs. NE): Austin Ekeler spoke this week about wanting to see one of his fellow running backs take charge of the complementary back role in this backfield, but there’s no reason to believe it will be Rountree who steps up after he was limited to just special teams work in week 5 and was a healthy scratch in week 6 ahead of the Chargers’ bye. Ekeler did pop up on the injury report on Thursday with a hip injury, so it’s worth monitoring his status, but Rountree probably isn’t the guy seeing a big boost if Ekeler sits.

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Moore’s two biggest yardage days this season have come at home in Glendale, but his playing time just isn’t consistent enough to trust. The Arizona debut of Zach Ertz pushed Rondale to the lowest route participation rate he’s seen in the last few weeks, and his aDOT last week was negative. With the way he’s being used, he’s going to need some big yards after catch numbers to prove useful, and Green Bay has allowed the 7^th-fewest yards after catch per game. Moore is nothing more than an upside dart throw on Thursday.

WR Amon-Ra St.Brown, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): From week 4 through week 6, Amon-Ra was targeted at least 7 times each game. In week 7, he shockingly went without a target despite being on the field for more than 60% of the Lions’ offensive snaps. I’d expect him to get more opportunities this week, but with only 2 teams on byes you can’t be desperate enough to bet on an ARSB bounce-back. The opportunities he does get will come mostly against Philly slot corner Avonte Maddox, who has allowed just 4.1 yards per target and a 65.4 passer rating on throws into his coverage. Stay away from Amon-Ra this week.

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): I was halfway tempted to list Moore as a sleeper this week after the Jets traded for Joe Flacco. Flacco has had success throughout his career throwing the deep ball, and the Jets have frequently had Moore running downfield routes, but Mike White is going to get the start this week and Moore’s usage just isn’t consistent enough to trust him with such a dicey QB situation. Moore did score his first NFL touchdown last week on a 19-yard run, but it’s not a sign you should be getting him into your lineups.

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 8: vs. LAR): If you read what I wrote about Davis Mills above, you know it’s a bad idea to roll the dice on Collins this week. Collins has totaled 11 targets in his two games since returning from injured reserve, but against defenses that rank in the top-10 in pass defense DVOA, Davis Mills averages just 130 passing yards per start. The Rams rank 4^th. Yes, there could be a lot of passing volume for the Texans if they fall into a hole as two touchdown underdogs, but the only place Nico is worth consideration is as a cheap option in a DFS showdown tournament. His outlook wouldn’t get much of a boost if Tyrod Taylor is able to return this week.

WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 8: @Den.): Brown is expected to miss this week’s game in Denver and hasn’t been productive enough to be an option even if he was going to play.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 8: @Atl.): Marshall still isn’t practicing as of Wednesday after sustaining a week 6 concussion. I’d expect him to be out again, and don’t expect him to be very useful even if active.

TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 8: @Atl.): The Falcons allow the 12^th-most tight end points per game, but Tremble hasn’t put up more than 12 receiving yards in any of the past 4 games. He isn’t a fantasy option right now.

Rookies on bye in week 8: WR Rashod Bateman, BAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 8: @Chi.): Jimmy Garoppolo has been named the starter for the 49ers week 8 game against the Bears, but the changing of the guard at QB is coming sooner rather than later if the 49ers don’t start putting up some wins. Lance is a guy you should be stashing for the stretch run. We’ve already seen the kinds of fantasy points he can produce when given the opportunity. Lance put up 20 points in a single half in his first extended action of the season and managed to put up nearly 14 points in his first full game despite not producing a single touchdown. His rushing production gives him a very high floor, a ceiling few other QBs can match.

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 8: @NYJ): Keep an eye on the injury report here as Evans didn’t practice Wednesday and is listed as questionable for this game, but if he’s good to go, there is a ton of upside for him in what could be a lopsided game. His usage is too questionable to trust in season-long leagues after last week was the Mixon & Perine show in this backfield, but this is a perfect matchup for Evans to make an impact. We’ve seen Evans post a 2-TD game against the Detroit Lions, and he has a similar ceiling in this one. The Jets allow the most running back receptions and receiving yards per game, and they’ve allowed 3 different receiving backs to clear 12 fantasy points against them (James White, Jeremy McNichols, and Brandon Bolden). Evans costs a measly $200 for Showdown contests on DraftKings this week.

WR Amari Rodgers, GB (Wk. 8: @Ari.): Green Bay is in a desperate situation at wide receiver this week with both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard placed on the Covid reserve list this week. Both players are expected to miss this game, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been ruled out for another week as well. That leaves Randall Cobb as the WR1, with some combo of Equanimeous St. Brown, Malik Taylor and Rodgers rounding out the WR group. Since the Covid updates came during the week, the DraftKings showdown prices for ESB and Rodgers remain extremely low ($600 and $400, respectively), but one or both will play a sizable role in this game. I do think we’ll see Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan handle larger target shares than usual, but Green Bay is likely going to have to throw to keep pace with Arizona’s high-powered offense. The Cardinals allow the 16^th-most WR points per game, so not a brutal matchup by any means. Rodgers is in play as a dart throw in those showdown contests, but should still be avoided in season-long formats.

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 8: @Cle.): The Browns aren’t an easy matchup for tight ends, allowing the 11^th-fewest points per game to the position, but Freiermuth seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the season-ending injury to Juju Smith-Schuster, and the Browns are much better against the run than the pass. It’s only been one game since the Juju injury, but Freiermuth saw his largest snap and highest target totals of the season, and I’d expect that increased usage to continue going forward. Freiermuth should be treated as a fringe TE1 this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.