Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve now passed the halfway point of the regular season. Hopefully your teams are doing pretty well, because things are about to get a little dicey in the next 2 weeks. There are 6 teams off each week, the most we’ll see in any weeks this year. It’s going to create some holes in your lineups, and finding the right guys to fill those gaps will be critical. At least a few rookies may be peaking at the right time to help out. OJ Howard was the TE1 last weekend. David Njoku had the longest catch of his career so far. Aaron Jones clearly took over as the lead back in Green Bay, and Marlon Mack out-snapped Frank Gore for the first time this year. There are plenty of other rookies who are poised to play bigger roles as the season wears on like Corey Davis (pick him up this week if you have the roster spot to do it), Kenny Golladay, Austin Ekeler and John Ross among others. Let’s dive in and discuss what to expect for week 8…
Rookies to Start:
RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 8: vs. Den.): Denver has allowed the 2nd-fewest RB points per game (all scoring stats in PPR scoring unless otherwise noted) and ranks 1st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and Hunt hasn’t finished higher than the RB10 in the past 4 weeks despite a couple of good matchups. You still have to start him. He’s been at least an RB2 every week, and the daunting matchup isn’t enough to make me act crazy and bench him. He’s a contrarian play for DFS tournaments this week.
RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Ind.): The Colts were stingy against the run to start the year, allowing just 67 RB rush yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry in the first 3 weeks. They’ve allowed 136.5 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry since. Mixon voiced some displeasure after last week’s game about getting zero carries in the 2nd half after piling up 48 yards on 7 first half carries. Head Coach Marvin Lewis called the comments immature, but I think he got the message. Even if he didn’t, with the Bengals a 10-point favorite in this game, they might not have any choice but to run in the 2nd half. The Colts have coughed up the 2nd-most RB points per game so far, and I expect Mixon to still be the lead back despite the Lewis’s comments. Mixon has RB1 upside this week and should be a staple in DFS lineups at just $4,700 in DraftKings.
RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): While the biggest beneficiary of the Saints’ Adrian Peterson trade has been Mark Ingram, it’s also given a boost to Kamara. He’s played 42% and 49% of the snaps in the two games since Peterson was jettisoned, the highest rates since he cracked 50% in week 1. He’s put up 87 scrimmage yards on 13 touches and 107 scrimmage yards on 14 touches in those two games. Kamara has now scored double-digit points in PPR formats in 4 straight games, and what’s been most impressive is the ability he’s shown as a runner. His receiving upside could be somewhat limited by the Bears, who have allowed the 6th-fewest RB receiving yards in the league, but I don’t expect that to hold him back. The Bears rank 16th in run defense DVOA, have been banged up at linebacker (Willie Young and Jerrell Freeman on IR), and the Saints are a 9-point favorite this week. The positive game script and decent matchup should make Kamara a solid RB2 this weekend.
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 8: @TB): Another NFL week, another week where McCaffrey looks to be a solid RB2, but he may have some upside for more this week. The Bucs have really been scuffling against RBs in the past 3 weeks. They’ve allowed 28.9 points per game to running backs in the past 3, which would be 3rd-most in the league if they averaged that for the year. Tampa Bay has been more vulnerable in the red zone to running backs running the ball rather than catching it out of the backfield, allowing 5 rushing TDs to backs compared to just 1 receiving score, but they’ve still allowed 6 catches and 45.5 receiving yards per game to them. Tampa ranks in the bottom half of the league in receiving points allowed to RBs per game. That’s should suit McCaffrey just fine. CMC has established himself as the lead back for the Panthers after playing 74% of the offensive snaps last week compared to 39% for J-Stew, and he may finally hit that ceiling we’ve all been waiting for. It should be a great week to fire up McCaffrey, and he’ll be could be a nice piece in DFS lineups if he makes good on his potential in this plus matchup.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Deshaun Watson, HOU (Wk. 8: @Sea.): Watson has been a tremendous fantasy QB so far, but this week he gets his toughest test to-date. If you are in a 1-QB league, I would certainly be considering other options if decent ones are available. No quarterback has scored 20 points against the Seahawks this year, and only Aaron Rodgers and Marcus Mariota have topped 10. Seattle allows the 4th-fewest QB points per game, ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA, and has allowed the 2nd-lowest QB rating against. Watson’s rushing ability adds a little bit of a boost to his floor, but this isn’t a great spot to trot him out there. Watson is averaging nearly 23 fantasy points per game, so it isn’t like he’s going to suddenly be held to 5 points. He’s still a fine play in 2-QB formats. I’m just pointing out that he’s far from an automatic start in 1-QB formats thanks to the difficult matchup.
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 8: @NO): With so many running backs on bye this week, Cohen is worth considering, especially if Benny Cunningham sits again. Cohen only played 18% of the snaps last weekend and handled just 1 touch (a 70-yard reception), but the game script worked against him. The Bears were ahead for much of that game. I’d expect a reversal of fortunes this week against the red-hot Saints. New Orleans has allowed the most RB catches per game and most RB receiving yards per game, and that’s where Cohen’s bread is buttered. The Bears will still likely try and limit Trubisky’s passing volume, but there might not be any way to avoid throwing when they fall behind. Cohen is back in play as a PPR flex option.
RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 8: @Cin.): It was exciting for Mack owners to see him out-snap Frank Gore for the first time last weekend, but much of that had to do with game script. The Colts trailed 14-0 in the first quarter, and never got themselves into the game. The good news for Mack: This week’s game script is likely to set up the same way. The Bengals haven’t played great so far, but even they are a 10-point favorite this week. Gore will still factor in here and the Bengals have allowed the 12th-fewest RB points per game, so it isn’t all roses for Mack, but Cincy also allows 6.5 receptions per game to running backs. With the limited slate of games, Mack is certainly in play as a flex option, and an enticing DFS tournament play at just $4,000 in DraftKings.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 8: @Det.): I can’t imagine all of the Martavis drama results in more playing time from Bryant, and at least for week 8 it’s got him benched completely. JuJu was already an intriguing option this week before the announcement came about Martavis. There was some worry about JuJu being in the concussion protocol, but he practiced in full Wednesday. With Bryant out, JJSS may get to move to the outside a bit and will likely avoid both Quandre Diggs and Darius Slay, who have been Detroit’s two best corners. The Lions allow the 11th-most WR points per game. Smith-Schuster has a great opportunity to post a WR3 game this week.
WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Golladay is back at practice this week and should be good to go for Sunday night. Golden Tate is expected to miss this game (monitor the situation, Tate got in a limited practice Wed.), and the Lions are going to need someone to pick up the slack of the 8 targets per game that he averages. The Steelers have allowed the fewest WR points per game, but among the teams they’ve played, only Cleveland throws the ball nearly as much as Detroit does, and the Browns don’t really have a QB or WRs. The Browns throw it on 63.97% of their offensive plays, while the Lions throw on 63.43%. No other Pittsburgh opponent throws even 59% of the time. If Tate does sit, the volume should be there for Golladay to be an upside flex option in a week with so many byes. He’s worth grabbing as a fallback if you’re waiting on the status of another WR who’s questionable to suit up.
TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Kittle was targeted just twice in a 30-point loss to the Cowboys last week in which CJ Beathard threw 38 times. I believed in the Iowa connection, but those results weren’t promising. I still might be willing to go back to the well this week. The Eagles aren’t exactly a great matchup for TEs, or at least they weren’t. With the injury to Jordan Hicks, that may change. Hicks had a 90.0 coverage grade from Pro Football Focus last year and was at 71.5 so far this season. The Eagles were shredded by Jordan Reed after the injury occurred on Monday. Of course Kittle isn’t Reed, but I like his chances at a bounce back in another game where the 49ers should be throwing a ton. He’s a decent streamer option or bye week filler for deeper leagues.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 8: @NO): The Bears have been running the ball on 68.9% of their offensive snaps with Trubisky as starter (per PFF’s Scott Barrett), and he’s attempted 23 passes in the past 2 weeks combined. They’re likely to have to throw a bit more to keep pace with New Orleans, but the Saints have actually been pretty stingy to opposing QBs during their 4-game win streak. They’ve allowed just 10.2 fantasy points per game and 187 passing yards per game to opposing QBs in that 4-game span. Couple that with the fact the Bears will still try to limit his volume, and it’s easy to see Trubisky should be avoided this week.
QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): The Browns have decided to go back to Kizer once again this week, but the in-game benchings can’t be good for this kid’s development. He gets a brutal matchup this week across the pond against a Viking defense that has allowed the 5th-fewest QB points per game. I’d expect more of the same from Kizer in this one – turnovers. He’s failed to reach 4 fantasy points in each of his last 3 starts, and I wouldn’t be stunned if that happens again Sunday.
RB D’Onta Foreman, HOU (Wk. 8: @Sea.): Foreman has 3 games this season with 12 or more carries, but all 3 were wins, and 2 were blowouts. He has 13 carries combined in the Texans’ 3 losses. Seattle is a 6-point favorite and allows the 4th-fewest running back points per game. You have to pick your spots with a lower volume player like Foreman, and this isn’t a good spot to use him.
RB Matt Brieda, SF (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Brieda has played just 32 offensive snaps and handled 9 touches total in the past 2 weeks after Kyle Shanahan proclaimed that he is on equal footing with Carlos Hyde. They may be showcasing Hyde for a trade, but as long as Carlos is on the roster it’ll be hard to trust Brieda. His limited role certainly isn’t a recipe for fantasy success against an Eagles team that allows the 8th-fewest running back points per game.
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): With Bilal Powell and Matt Forte both healthy last weekend, McGuire played just 7 offensive snaps and saw just 3 touches. He’ll go back into obscurity for now until one of those top 2 backs comes down with another ailment or the Jets nosedive out of playoff contention. We know they aren’t going to the playoffs, but at the moment they are just a game and a half out of the last wild card spot.
RB Samaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Perine played zero offensive snaps last week, yet somehow has a higher price tag in DraftKings than teammate Rob Kelley, who starts. That is absurd to me. Avoid Perine in all formats.
WR Trent Taylor, SF (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Taylor showed a connection with QB CJ Beathard last week with 5 catches, and the Eagles have been torched by slot WRs Sterling Shepard and Keenan Allen (runs about 55% of snaps from slot), but those guys were outliers. Outside of those two weeks, the Eagles have actually defended the slot pretty well, and Taylor is nowhere near as good as Shep or Allen. Taylor probably shouldn’t be a consideration for your lineup.
WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 8: @NE): Williams draws a great matchup with the Pats allowing the 3rd-most WR points per game, but Williams played just 24% of the snaps last week and was targeted only twice. He’s essentially splitting WR3 reps with Travis Benjamin, which puts a pretty big damper on his upside. Hopefully that will change in the coming weeks, but I can’t make a compelling argument for why you should expect it to change this week. There’s upside here, but also a floor of zero points that seems more likely than him making good on that upside.
WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. Oak.): Zay was targeted a season-high 9 times last Sunday, and he caught just 2 of them for 17 yards. He now had 7 catches for 83 yards on the season on 32 targets. His inefficiency and 22% catch rate are quickly becoming the stuff of legend. I wonder how much longer the Bills can keep forcing that kind of volume his way. There’s no reason to expect a positive change this week.
WR John Ross, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Ind.): It’s really disappointing that Ross didn’t manage to get healthy for last week’s game and get some reps in. You can’t throw him into lineups without seeing what his usage is going to look like first, but this would’ve been a great spot for him. Ross has exceptional deep speed and the Colts have allowed 40 passes of 20 or more yards this season. While it’s a bummer for Ross that he won’t be up to speed for this one, AJ Green may be the premiere WR play of the week.
TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): I would actually like Njoku as a sleeper this week if Cody Kessler had gotten the starting nod. Njoku’s snap rates are still troubling, as he played under 40% of the offensive snaps last week, but Kessler seemed to seek him out. 4 of Kessler’s 19 pass attempts went in Njoku’s direction, and he hauled in 2 of them for 31- and 27-yard gains. They were the two longest catches of his young career. Minnesota is right square in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending tight ends (16th-most points allowed per game), but they rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the position. There would be a case to be made for Njoku in deep enough leagues if Kessler were back under center.
TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Don’t chase last week’s points with Howard. Hopefully the increased targets are a sign of things to come for him, but Cameron Brate still ran more pass routes and was targeted more often last Sunday. 47% of Howard’s PPR production has come on 2 TDs against broken coverages where the defense let him get wide open. It’s hard to bank on that happening again this week, especially with the Panthers allowing the 7th-fewest tight end points per game.
Rookies on Byes: RB Leonard Fournette, JAX, RB Aaron Jones, GB, RB Wayne Gallman, NYG, WR Corey Davis, TEN, WR Taywan Taylor, TEN, WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, TE Evan Engram, NYG, TE Jonnu Smith, TEN
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB CJ Beathard, SF (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Beathard didn’t exactly set the world on fire in a favorable matchup last week, but he did manage to tally 14.4 fantasy points thanks to a garbage time rushing TD, and he gets a favorable draw again this week. Philly has been allowing a lot of garbage time passing stats this year. They’ve been ahead entering the 4th quarter in all 6 games they’ve won, and had a 2-score advantage in 3 of them. I’d expect them to be up double-digits entering the 4th this week. There should be plenty of time for Beathard to pad stats. Philly allows the 4th-most passing yards and 9th-most QB fantasy points per game. CJ is an intriguing streamer in 2-QB formats thanks to the byes.
RB Austin Ekeler, LAC (Wk. 8: @NE): Ekeler found his way to a surprising 11 touches last week and was pretty effective with them, finishing as the PPR RB13 for the week. This may be point chasing, but he might be in play for you if you’re scrambling for a running back in deep PPR leagues. The Patriots have allowed the 5th-most RB points per game and the 2nd-most receptions and receiving yards to backs. The bulk of that will go to Melvin Gordon, but Ekeler clearly has established a role.
RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Clement may get a chance to pile up garbage time carries in a game where the Iggles are 13-point favorites. The 49ers allow the most running back points per game in the league, and they just let Rod Smith find his way to be the RB35 last week without even finding the end zone. That was with just 2 teams on bye. There are 6 this week. Clement’s usage makes him no more than a DFS tournament punt play this week. He was on the field for just 12 offensive snaps on Monday night.
WR Mack Hollins, PHI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Hollins is a guy worth stashing in dynasty leagues. The Eagles have been raving about him since training camp, and for the season he’s been targeted 6 times, and has a 6-134-1 line to show for it. It’s only a matter of time before he overtakes Torrey Smith and starts to get more playing time. Smith signed a 3-year contract with Philly last offseason, but the last 2 years are both club options. Also worth noting: Alshon Jeffrey signed just a 1-year deal with Philadelphia. Hollins should be a prominent part of the passing game next year, one way or another.
WR Tanner Gentry, CHI (Wk. 8: @NO): The Bears passing volume has been a bit of a joke the past couple weeks, but Gentry has been on the field for 109 out of a possible 118 offensive snaps in the past 2 weeks. He only has one catch to show for all of that playing time, but that’s due to there being just 12 passing completions in those games. I’d expect quite a bit more volume against the high-powered Saints. New Orleans allows the 9th-most WR points per game. Gentry has displayed big play ability (had a 45-yard TD catch in preseason), and the Saints have allowed the 4th-most pass plays of 20 or more yards. Gentry could surprise this week as a DFS punt option. The Bears did just acquire Dontrelle Inman on Wednesday, so the snap share could be a bit in jeopardy for Tanner, but I don’t expect Dontrelle to be fully up to speed by Sunday.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps with your tough lineup decisions. If you see two players at the same position with the same designation, the one listed first is the one I like better this week. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports throughout the week and always do a final check before kickoff to make sure your guys are active. If you want to yell at me about anything above or have any questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Relatively safe slate of games last week, with only Carolina claiming 4 victims, bringing my big pool down to 58 survivors. The Bears might be up for spoiler of the year award this season by only showing up for games they have no business winning.
Congratulations if you went with my pick last week. Dallas delivered in a big way winning 40-10 against the 49ers.
This week's pick is the Minnesota Vikings in their match-up against the Cleveland Browns. There is so much I love about this game. First, it has been proven through repeated testing that only half the teams scheduled ever show up in London for the game. Next, this is a great spot to use your Vikings pick. They are normally a tough team to be confident in since they are lacking their starting quarterback, Sam Bradford, and have been borderline inept on offense since.
It's tough to have faith in a team that is usually in close games, but this week they get the Cleveland Shit Browns and will roll to a double digit victory. Fortunately for west coast fans this game will be on at 6:30 am and can be completely ignored.
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
19 Touchdowns in 7 Games
Rookie sensation and new favorite in this column, Deshaun Watson, continued to flash greatness in Seattle on Sunday. He now has 19 passing TD's in the first 7 games of his career, which breaks Kurt Warner's record of 18. Watson is now the front-runner for offensive rookie of the year. In the fantasy world, he has the most points among all players, 176.86 in standard leagues. He's topped 34 points 3 times now, all coming over his last 4 games. He's averaging an astounding 28.36 points per game when he starts and has thrown for at least 3 TD's each of the last 4 games. Watson is even leading all QB's in rushing yards, with 269 and has 2 rushing TD's as well. In short, Deshaun Watson has taken the fantasy football world by storm, and is making everyone on his team much, much better.
3 of the Top 5 WR's
Waiver wire alert! This week, three of the top 5 wide receivers are owned in LESS than 50% of Yahoo leagues. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Paul Richardson, and Robby Anderson may be out there looking to be picked up in your league. They are all solid spot starters to fill in for bye weeks or injuries. All 3 guys are seeing decent volume in terms of their workload, all getting at least 6 targets and 100 yards receiving on Sunday. This week they all found paydirt as well, though you can't count on that every week of course. The two guys in the top 5 who ARE owned in a lot of leagues? Why, Deshaun Watson's teammates, of course. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Filler V combined for a cool 52.9 fantasy points.
4 WR's, 4 RB's
Each week, I've been tracking the relative performance of wide receivers vs. running backs. Over the last couple of years, we've noticed that WR's dominated early, but this year that's been backwards. This week, however, it's starting to even out. Out of the top 10 fantasy players so far this week, there is an even split of 4 WR's and 4 RB's represented in that group. This is easily the most favorable position that WR's have had all year. Last week, the top 10 RB's outscored the WR's by over 3 points, but this week the WR's were on top by over 1 point. My colleague Dave Biggs suggested that quarterbacks get much better as the season goes on, and I think I agree and we're seeing that - this week all QB's combined for 30 TD's and only 20 INT's.
482 of 485 Total Offensive Yards
There was only one player who scored more points than Deshaun Watson on Sunday, and that's the winner of the craziest game of the year, Russell Wilson. Wilson was responsible for 99.4% of his team's total offense, between his 452 passing yards and 30 rushing yards. The rest of the team had a net of 3 rushing yards, or about a half foot per attempt. Of course, stuff like this only happens in a crazy game like we saw on Sunday. According to pro-football-reference.com's win probability, the chances each team could win changed an amazing 24 times. The only thing that was missing from this game was Tony Romo doing the color commentary. Why did you let us down, CBS?
13 Runs Scored
On Sunday afternoon, as with most Sunday afternoons, I was texting my father and brother about the Bears game. I jokingly told my dad that it would be nice to see the Bears offense outscore a baseball team. If only I could harvest my premonitions, my gambling life would be a lot more fun. The Bears, along with 4 other teams, failed to outscore the Houston Astros, who put up 13 runs en route to a win in game 5 of the World Series. The Lions and Raiders would just sneak by with 15 and 14 points respectively, but neither team has cause to be happy with their performances in week 8. Hell, the Lions offense managed just shy of 500 yards from scrimmage, but were unable to score any touchdowns despite 5 trips to the red zone (and two drives that ended just outside).
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it past the halfway point of the regular season. By now you should have a pretty good idea of where your team stands. Are you a contender? Or are you just hoping to squeak into the playoffs and hope for the best? This is the time of year when unlikely players start to make waves due to injuries and attrition, and a lot of the time those unlikely fantasy heroes are rookies. The Carlos Hyde trade has put another rookie on the map as Nick Chubb becomes the every-week starter in Cleveland. Peyton Barber’s injury may have opened up more playing time for Ronald Jones II. Ted Ginn’s trip to IR could pave the way for Tre’Quan Smith to be a stud down the stretch. I’m sure there will be others as well. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookie crop in week 8…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Of course you’re going to start Barkley in all season-long formats this week. He’s been the number 2 fantasy RB this season (all scoring and rankings referenced are in PPR format), but this may not be the best week to fire him up in DFS tournaments. Saquon did finish as the RB5 in his first game without 100 scrimmage yards, but Washington has allowed the 10th fewest RB points per game this year and ranks 4th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat on throws to opposing backs. While Saquon is capable of overcoming a less than tempting matchup, he’s not the chalk DFS play this week.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Sea.): Kerryon put on a show last Sunday in Miami, but until Matt Patricia and the Lions realize that LeGarrette Blount shouldn’t be getting 10 carries per game, Johnson will remain a boom-or-bust RB2 option each week. After the monster rushing game Kerryon posted in week 7, I’m optimistic Detroit will start to unleash him a bit more. He does get a decent matchup against a middling Seattle run defense. The Seahawks rank 15th at limiting opposing RB points on a per game basis, and rank 12th in run defense DVOA. It would be hard to sit him after what he did last weekend even if it is a bit of point chasing.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 8: @KC): Lindsay could be poised for a big game if teammate and fellow rookie Royce Freeman is unable to suit up this week, which seems a likely scenario. The Chiefs allow the 2nd-most RB points per game and rank dead last in run defense DVOA. Even if Freeman plays, the game script will likely be to Lindsay’s advantage with Kansas City a 10-point favorite. I like Lindsay as a solid RB2 this week, and he has legit RB1 upside if Freeman’s high-ankle sprain keeps him sidelined.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 8: @Pit.): The Steelers have been playing better pass defense of late, but they still rank just 20th in pass defense DVOA on the season. Mayfield has been a bit turnover prone since taking the starting gig, but he’s still finished as the QB15, QB21 and QB6 in the past 3 weeks. He’ll be a borderline QB2 in super-flex and 2 quarterback leagues once again in this one.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 8: @Pit.): Chubb’s increased role should make him a sure-fire starter in most formats, but the matchup this week is a tough one. The Steelers allow the 2nd-fewest RB fantasy points per game, and the Steelers are a touchdown favorite. If game-script keeps the Browns throwing, it’ll be Duke Johnson who benefits most in the Cleveland backfield. The Steelers are the only team in the league that hasn’t allowed an opposing backfield to get to 20 PPR points in a game all year.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 8: @KC): As mentioned above with Phillip Lindsay, Freeman is nursing an ankle injury that may sideline him in a prime matchup. If he’s able to play, he’ll be an intriguing flex option against the team that ranks 32nd in run defense DVOA, but game script won’t play in his favor with Denver a heavy underdog. Keep a close eye on the injury updates Sunday to confirm he’s active if you’re considering starting Royce.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Kirk remains a decent flex option for deeper leagues this week. He’s averaging 4.6 catches and 66.4 receiving yards per game in his past 5, and he posted 3-85-1 in the first meeting with San Francisco. He’s clearly Josh Rosen’s favorite target in the passing game, and the 49ers rank 23rd in pass defense DVOA.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Rosen is one of just 2 quarterbacks all year to finish lower than QB13 when facing the 49ers. The matchup is good, and I’m confident Rosen will eventually get things together, but you just can’t bank on a productive game from Rosen in any matchup. He’s no more than a QB2 in a league where you have no other options.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Chi.): Darnold hasn’t shown enough upside consistently to be trusted in any format this week. You could roll the dice in a 2-QB league, but Darnold and the Jets average the 6th-fewest passing yards and the 4th-lowest QB rating in the league. The Bears’ defense has been one of the league’s best. Chicago ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA and have are in the top-10 in the league at limiting QB rating.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 8: @Buf.): This would be a great spot to use Michel if he were fully healthy. The Patriots are a 2-touchdown favorite and the Bills are allowing the 9th-most RB points per game. Sony seems to have avoided any sort of serious damage despite his injury looking bad when it happened, but I’d still be surprised if he were able to play this week. Even if he does, I’d expect his work to be limited since the Pats probably won’t need him to get a win this week. Michel will play a big role down the stretch, and I don’t think New England wants to risk his health in a game they should win easily.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 8: @Oak.): With Marlon Mack storming onto the scene over the last two weeks, Hines and Wilkins have taken a back seat. They did see some work late in a blowout win over Jacksonville last week, but Mack appears to be the clear lead back for now. Hines does have some upside in deep PPR leagues, but his pass-catching role has been diminished lately. He averaged nearly 6 catches per game in the first 5 weeks, and has just 3 total receptions in the past 2.
RB Ronald Jones II, TB (Wk. 8: @Cin.): Even if Barber does sit the week out, the Buccaneers have struggled mightily to run the ball, and RoJo likely will have to contend with Jacquizz Rodgers for 3rd-down work. Jones has averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry for the season, and Barber wasn’t much better with less than 3.5 per carry.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Moore is still just a secondary option for the Panthers’ offense, and Baltimore has allowed the 3rd-fewest WR points per game. DJ has been more involved lately, but this isn’t the best week to roll the dice on a spike in production.
WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 8: @LAR): With Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison both on track to play this week, the pair of rookie receivers should be relegated to backup duty once again. Valdes-Scantling does have WR3 upside this week if either Cobb or Allison sits again.
WR DJ Chark, JAX (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): Chark got a bit more run last Sunday than we’ve seen from him this year, but that came in a blowout loss to the Colts. It also likely helped Chark that the team turned to fellow second-stringer Cody Kessler at QB during the game. The Eagles are a vulnerable pass defense, but I’d still expect Chark to go back to his normal bench role. DJ is a shoot the moon DFS tournament play at best.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 8: @Jax.): Goedert had a strong showing in week 6 with a 4-43-1 line, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance with the Jaguars allowing the 2nd-fewest TE points per game. With Ertz at the top of the target pecking order, there won’t be enough to go around for Goedert in this one.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Gesicki had a reasonable performance in week 6 with a 3-44 line. He out-produced Nick O’Leary in the game, but played just 16 offensive snaps compared to 39 for O’Leary. Until that changes Gesicki remains an un-startable option.
TEs Hayden Hurst & Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 8: @Car.): The Ravens’ tight end group has proven to be a muddled mess all season. No TE played even 50% of the week 7 snaps for Baltimore. Andrews played just 38%, and Hurst played an even more paltry 26%. Those aren’t useful snap counts.
Rookies on Byes: RB Ito Smith, ATL, WR Calvin Ridley, ATL, WR Michael Gallup, DAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 8: @Min.): I’d have a lot more faith in Smith this week if he had a better matchup. The Vikings have allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game, which is incredible considering they gave up an astounding 83.9 to the Rams’ receivers. Smith has established himself as the Saints’ WR2 with Ted Ginn on IR, and that’s a fantasy role with lots of upside as long as Drew Brees is under center. He didn’t post a huge game last weekend, but his 6 targets were 6 more than Cam Meredith saw. At the very least, Tre’Quan should be rostered in all formats.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Miller was targeted 7 times in his 2nd game back from a shoulder injury, and the Jets allow the 5th-most WR points per game. I don’t expect Trubisky to throw 50 times again this week, so Miller is more of a DFS dart throw than a season-long option, but the fact that he got more opportunity than Taylor Gabriel last Sunday is a promising sign.
WRs Antonio Callaway & Damion Ratley, CLE (Wk. 8: @Pit.): The Steelers are a touchdown favorite, and are allowing the 6th-most WR points per game. Jarvis Landry isn’t going to score all the fantasy points from this group, which means one of this duo should have a better than expected day. Callaway has been playing more snaps and getting more opportunity, but Ratley has been more efficient with his opportunities. Callaway’s blazing speed gives him the higher level of upside.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 8: @KC): This is a decent opportunity for Sutton to be an intriguing DFS dart throw. Denver will be throwing, and Sutton has been playing nearly as much as Demaryius Thomas lately. The Chiefs are allowing the 13th-most WR points per game. Sutton is hard to trust in season-long leagues, but you can pick your spots to try him in DFS, and this is one of those spots where he’s worth considering.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions that involve rookies as we get deeper into these pivotal weeks. Keep an eye on the injury report to see what happens with Peyton Barber, Sony Michel and Royce Freeman, and anyone else on your teams that is nicked up right now. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to harass me about any of the info above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.