Week six in the NFL is full with a tough docket of games. Expect to see low scores in confidence pools and teams struggling to find production with big name players on the injury report. When looking over the betting lines there is not much that I like this week, so I will be sitting this week out. If I were to pick some games to wager on this weekend though, I think the following offer the most promise.
Denver's high powered offense is going up against a weak Jets' secondary favored by 10 points. Since the Jets can't put up a lot of points this number is probably realistic, however I don't like such a high number for a road team with their starting running back out.
The New England Patriots are -3 at Buffalo against the Bills. After looking impressive last week against the Bengals, logic would say they should have an easy time with Kyle Orton and the Bills. If the Bills get the running game going though, they might be able to keep this one a little too close for comfort. I feel a little bit better about betting the over in this game at 45 points. New England put up 43 on a tough Bengals defense last week and might have finally put some things together on offense.
The Ravens and Packers are both favored by 3.5 on the road. The Packers seam to be gaining momentum, so i would feel ok about taking them against the Dolphins. The Ravens however are facing a Tampa Bay Bucs team that is playing hard for coach Lovie Smith. Lovie coached teams always seem to play tight games and spoil bettor's weekends.
The Game I like the most this week would be for the Pittsburgh Steelers to bounce back on the road against the Cleveland Browns. The Steelers are 1 point dogs and I like them to outright win. A home team should automatically get 3 points if they are indeed the favorite. So the Browns only getting one point is a sign that I want to jump on the Steelers.
Good luck this week betters! I will be sitting on my money this week but maybe I will regret it.
Each week in the NFL brings new surprises and disappointments to our fantasy teams. Staying ahead of this stuff is one way to forge and maintain a quality team and get them to the all-important playoffs! Here are some important blurbs along with their associated analyses that may clue you in on some important information before your opponents!
Joe Flacco secured a spot in the record books when he passed for 5 touchdowns faster than any other QB in NFL history. He may have thrown some more later in the game if it hadn't devolved to a blowout against the Bucs, finishing with a score of 48-17. Including this week's stats (21 for 29, 306 yards, 5 passing TD's), Flacco is now the #8 fantasy QB overall in standard scoring leagues. Looking ahead to his Week 7 match-up with the Atlanta Falcons, Flacco provides a tantalizing value for a QB that is still only owned in 51% of Yahoo leagues. The Falcons have consistently had one of the worst passing defenses in the league so far this season, allowing an average of 278 yards per game so far. Interestingly enough, they've only allowed 6 TD's through the air this year though.. I believe this can be explained by the 12 TD's that they have given up on the ground - seems it's no problem for teams to pass the football down to the redzone against the Falcons, and then most of them tend to run it in. So, will Flacco finish the year as a top 10 QB? With Torrey Smith's breakout game last week will the Smith & Smith combo stay productive on a weekly basis? Is Flacco a good play in Week 7 against the Falcons, or will most of the TD's stay on the ground?
Andre Holmes had a standout performance against the San Diego Chargers (who had previously had one of the league's best passing defenses and been one of the more consistent fantasy defenses) with 4 receptions for 121 yards and 2 TD's. With that game, he leads the Raiders with 20 targets over the last two games. New interim head coach Tony Sparano seems to have put a spark into the Raiders' offense and Derek Carr has been playing fairly well by limiting turnovers (though he could have a better completion percentage - last week he was only 18-of-34). The other relevant receiver from the Raiders is James Jones, who caught 5-of-7 targets for 56 yards and 1 TD in Week 6. He has quietly put up consistently good numbers all year, cementing him as the #24 WR overall in standard scoring leagues while only being owned in 38% of Yahoo leagues. The only receiver who has performed better overall while being owned by less teams is Malcolm Floyd at #20 overall and owned by only 24% of teams. Pretty impressive performances by each of them so far this season and they don't look to slow down anytime soon. Both are solid grabs on the waiver wire this week before people realize what's going on!
Knowshon Moreno just went on the IR, after apparently tearing his ACL during the game against the Packers in Week 6. We knew that he was a dicey start, but didn't catch anything about this while watching the game until it popped up on Twitter. Ouch, Knowshon.. Well, moving on - right? With Moreno out for the year (and maybe moving on to a new uniform next season), Lamar Miller will keep his spot as the Dolphin's lead back. He's been no slouch in that role, either, grading out as the #14 RB overall in standard scoring leagues with 400+ all-purpose yards and 4 TD's so far. Owned in 88% of Yahoo leagues, you probably can't scoop him up of the wire at this point but he should be an every-week RB2 start now - especially going up against the Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively. Both teams are giving up over 100 yards rushing per game.
Marching right along to Week 6, aren't we? Here are some starts and sits to keep in mind for this week's games. Do you have any specific questions? Feel free to leave a comment or email me directly at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and I'll be sure to respond quickly. Good luck to all of you this week and remember: consistency is generally the name of the game in fantasy unless you're down on your luck with injuries, etc. In that case, it's okay to throw caution to the wind a bit and play someone with more of a risk/reward situation.
Josh McCown (CLE) vs. DEN - McCown has been throwing the ball a crazy amount of times each game and that looks to continue this week. Can we trust newcomers to fantasy football relevancy like Travis Benjamin and Gary Barnidge? For as long as they are putting up points, of course we can! Denver has a great defense this year, but McCown will still need to sling the football around in order to give Cleveland a chance in this game. At the time this column was written, McCown was our #11 QB for Week 5. That makes him a great bye-week fill in or even a low end starter.
Andrew Luck (IND) vs. NE - Yes, we know that he is Andrew Luck. Lots of experts are very high on him this week. Our advice is to let him sit for one more week and throw in whatever replacement that you were previously using, if possible. The Colts offensive line still looks as bad as it did early on in the season and Luck will be under pressure from a good New England defense during this match-up. Classic recipe for a disappointing performance.
Danny Woodhead (SD) vs. GB - Woodhead lost a few snaps to Melvin Gordon last week against the Steelers, but continues to show that he is productive every time he touches the football. Gordon looked better, but still not as good as Woodhead when catching the ball in the backfield and operating on 3rd downs in general. Expect Woodhead to have more opportunities in a game against the Packers where they are likely to be playing from behind.
Ryan Mathews (PHI) vs. NYG - Mathews had 73 yards and 1 TD on just 8 carries in last week's game against the Saints. He also added on a few receptions to that total. Chip Kelly is starting to realize that using Mathews and Murray as more of a tandem (and ceding goal-line carries to Mathews) may end up being a better offensive strategy. Look for more of the same for Mathews this week from a Giants defense giving up 17+ points per game to Running Backs.
Ronnie Hillman (DEN) vs. CLE - For some reason, Hillman keeps popping up on RB rankings in the top 25. He simply does not get enough opportunities to be treated as an every week RB2 or flex start. Add to that a hamstring tweak from last week and the Broncos' offensive woes in general. Nope.
Alfred Morris (WAS) vs. NYJ - Morris used to dominate all short yardage and goal-line work for the Redskins. The only way he was fantasy relevant was by compiling the majority of carries in any given match-up. Now that he has been joined by two other touch-hungry running backs (Matt Jones and Chris Thompson) in the backfield, this is a full-blown RBBC and it will be difficult to every play Alfred Morris again in a starting role.
Torrey Smith (SF) vs. BAL - Here's a bold one.. I've seen Torrey Smith out on some waiver wires already this year - and while I don't entirely disagree with that move based on Smith's boom or bust way of playing lately, I'm looking at Smith to perform at a high level this week against the dismal Ravens' secondary. WR2 numbers, maybe? At least 80 yards and a TD will be on Smith's stat sheet after week 6.
Mike Wallace (MIN) vs. KC - Wallace is developing some chemistry with Teddy Bridgewater in a time that really calls for some passing plays downfield. The Vikings are starting to realize that they need to throw more in order to balance their offense, and Wallace is becoming the go-to guy in Minnesota. Originally we thought it would be Charles Johnson after some great performances down the stretch in 2014, but injuries have put a damper on his production so far this year. The Titans are giving up almost 20 points a game to opposing WRs - expect Wallace to get most of that.
Donte Moncrief (IND) vs. NE - Assuming that T.Y. Hilton plays, he should continue to sop up the most targets from Andrew Luck, but I'm looking at the mid-season resurgence of Andre Johnson as the Colts' WR2. After gaining more self confidence in last week's 'grudge match' against his former team, Johnson should continue to perform at a high level. Also, the addition of Ahmad Bradshaw in passing downs should give Luck a great target to dish the football off to when being pressures. Don't get me wrong, I like Moncrief - but he'll have less opportunities than he previously found himself with.
Ladarius Green (SD) vs. GB - Even though Antonio Gates is back on the warpath, the Chargers are using Ladarius Green fairly heavily throughout the game. Makes sense, considering their other passing options have not been performing up to their expected potential. We should see Green out there by himself as well as in two tight end sets along with Gates. I expect high-end TE2 production for the foreseeable future.
Zach Ertz (PHI) vs. NYG - Ertz stepped up last week against the Saints, but still has no touchdowns and has been generally disappointing so far in 2015. Some of that can be blamed on the performance of the offense in general, but remember that the Eagles are still splitting snaps between Ertz and Celek. In what could be a tight game between the Eagles and Giants, I think we'll see a lot of Celek because of his skill at blocking. It's all about opportunities, people!