Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

42 Pass Completions

If I told you that the franchise record for passing completions for the Colts was 42, you would immediately think of Peyton Manning. Nope, he only has 40. Maybe you would remember Andrew Luck – also topped out at 40, also against Houston, just like Peyton. It turns out, that record now belongs to Matt Ryan, who completed 42 of his 58 pass attempts on Sunday. I guess that’s really called for when Jonathan Taylor has to sit for his second straight game. Ryan threw 13 more passes than the next closest QB (Jacoby Brissett with 45), and had 13 more completions than the next highest total (Garoppolo with 29). Ryan may not be scoring a ton of points in Indy this year, but he’s led the team to a winning record and he has thrown the ball at least 37 times in all but one game this season. There may not be a lot of fantasy production from Ryan, though he is definitely a starting superflex QB every week, there’s value to be found at the WR position. 4 of their WRs are averaging at least 3 catches per game, and 8 players have at least double-digit receptions (Jonathan Taylor not among them).

28.6 Fantasy Points

Ja’Marr Chase led all WRs in fantasy points this week, putting up 7 catches for 132 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns. His 28.6-point total was the second-highest of the week, behind his QB, Joe Burrow. Both players seemed to relish in their return to Louisiana, where they won a national championship with LSU. It’s the 4^th time in 23 regular season games that the pair have connected on multiple touchdown passes in one game. Chase has 7 games with 100+ receiving yards in his career, and now 6 games with over 20 fantasy points. He’s the WR5 on this season after this performance, despite half his games being under 9 fantasy points. His forever-teammate, Joe Burrow, is also 5^th at his position in fantasy points. He’s been a bit more consistent, accumulating a respectable total with only two top-5 finishes this season.

19 Total Points

Thursday night football has really been stinking it up lately. It’s best to go ahead and make dinner reservations on Thursdays if the last two games are any indicator. Week 6’s matchup between the Bears and the Commanders was just 3-0 at halftime. Chicago, despite rushing for a ridiculous 238 yards, generated only 7 points. This just goes to show that imbalance I have spoken of over the last few weeks is still a big problem, and not resulting in any good outcomes for the Bears. The previous Thursday resulted in only 2 more points, a 12-9 game that excruciatingly went into overtime – extra football that nobody asked for. Tonight, we’re being given our 4^th primetime look at the Broncos in 6 weeks. Someone at the scheduling office is clearly a fan of bad football. The Saints @ Cardinals this coming Thursday does nothing to dispel that notion. The only advice I can give is to bet on bad football and not start anyone on Thursdays if you can help it.

116 Rushing Yards

Breece Hall is really getting going now in his rookie season. This week, he posted his first game with 100+ rushing yards. He’s now scored a rushing TD in 3 straight weeks – all of them victories for the Jets. He’s averaging 5.6 yards per carry over the last 2 games, and though he’s had only 2 targets per game in the last 3 games, he’s still 3^rd in the league in receiving yards among running backs. Hall is the RB6 on the season and is putting up very consistent fantasy points. He has at least 12 points in every game other than week 1. He has increased his carries every single week, and is averaging just over 5 yards per carry on the season. Hall is really having the season you hoped for if you drafted him first overall in dynasty leagues, and the Jets are surprisingly good, though apparently, it’s not very surprising to them.

616 Rushing Yards

The Jets, however, aren’t even the best team from NYC. The Giants are 5-1, showing that their win last week was not a fluke with this week’s comeback against the Ravens. The Giants now have more wins this season than they did all last year when they went 4-13. Led by Saquon Barkley, the RB2 in fantasy, he has the 2^nd most rushing yards in the league, the 7^th most receiving yards among RBs, and leads the league in rushing attempts. Barkley looks like the player he was in his first two seasons. He has at least 17 points in all but 1 game this year. His next 4 matchups are very favorable, including one against the Texans, who are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs. All 4 of those opponents are giving up top 10 points to opposing RBs. Barkley could definitely be a player to target if you need that one more piece on your squad to put you over the top.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! With Taylor Swift not at the Chiefs-Vikings game last weekend, it freed all of us up to focus on the dominant storyline that actually matters to the fantasy football season: injuries. The first five weeks of the season have been an absolute meat grinder for fantasy lineups. If you haven’t lost a star player to injury yet, count yourself lucky. Week 5 added some more prominent names to the list – Justin Jefferson, James Conner, Anthony Richardson, and De’Von Achane all hit injured reserve this week. All you can do when you lose key players is keep plugging away and find suitable replacements.

The rookie crop continued to impress in week 5, as Puka Nacua wasn’t phased at all by the return of Cooper Kupp, Bijan Robinson scored one of the coolest highlight-reel touchdowns of the season to-date, and Bryce Young posted his first 3-TD game of his career. Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice and Josh Downs turned in solid fantasy games as well, and there are some new rookies who could make an impact in week 6 and beyond as a result of last weekend’s injuries. There’s a lot to sort out with the rookies this week, and luckily, I’m here to walk you through it as always.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 6:

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 6: vs. Was.): Bijan hasn’t quite been the top-5 back that we drafted him to be thus far in his rookie campaign, but with so many top backs banged up or underperforming, Robinson is still a locked-in top-10 RB option every week. He’s scored 10+ PPR points and handled 14+ touches in every game this season, and that workload should be plenty against a middling Commanders run defense. Washington has allowed the 13^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 16^th in Aaron Schatz’s run defense DVOA. Keep Bijan in the lineup this week.

WR Puka Nacua, ARI (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): Nacua’s first week with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup went as swimmingly as we could’ve hoped. He tallied 7-71-1 on 11 targets against the Eagles last Sunday. It’s true last weekend’s game script was largely neutral, and this week’s could be more positive with the Rams favored by 6.5 points, but Nacua should be able to do damage before the game gets out of hand against an Arizona team that ranks 30^th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 7^th-most WR points per game. Keep starting Puka with confidence. 

TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 6: @TB): LaPorta set season-low marks in targets and receptions in week 5, but he found the end zone twice en route to a TE5 finish for the week. He gets his toughest test of the season this week against a Bucs defense that ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 10^th-fewest TE points per game, but Sammy Ballgame has finished as a top-8 TE in 4 out of 5 games this season. I wouldn’t lump him in with the elite TEs this week given the tougher matchup, but he’s still a top-10 option at the position for me. LaPorta popped up on the injury report as a DNP on Thursday, so keep an eye on this situation and have a backup plan ready to go if for some reason LaPorta doesn’t play.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Keep an eye on the injury report here as Johnson is still trying to get cleared from a concussion suffered last Thursday, but with Khalil Herbert sidelined by a multi-week injury, Johnson should be in line for the lead back role this week if he can get cleared in time. D’Onta Foreman would undoubtedly mix in as well, but Johnson could be in line for 15 or so touches against a Minnesota team that ranks 14^th in run defense DVOA. I’d treat Johnson as a high-end RB3 or better if he’s able to play this week.

WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 6: @Chi.): Addison realistically could be placed in the category above this one this week with Justin Jefferson on IR. Reports from the team have indicated that KJ Osborn will step into the Vikings “X” WR role that Jefferson usually plays, but Addison is averaging 6 targets per game and should see an uptick in targets while JJ is out. There’s a chance that the Vikings will lean on the run game more this week with Jefferson out, but the Bears’ defense ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA and the Vikings lead the NFL in passing attempts. There’s no guarantee that the game script will be positive this week with how resurgent the Bears’ offense has been in the last two games. I’d feel confident starting Addison as a WR3 this week.

WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 6: @Ten.): Flowers finished as the PPR WR25 last week while leaving at least a dozen more points on the field due to drops and stumbles, and this week he faces a Tennessee defense that allows the 8^th-most WR points per game and ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing team’s WR1. Flowers should be locked into lineups as a solid WR3 in a plus matchup. The usage should continue to be strong as Flowers has earned a 30% target share for the season.

WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 6: @Jax.): The injury to Anthony Richardson might prove to be a good thing for Downs. The Colts should be an inherently more pass-heavy team with Gardner Minshew at QB, and although Downs won’t see more downfield targets with Minshew, he’s likely to see more targets overall. Minshew has averaged 38 pass attempts per game in his last 3 starts in a Shane Steichen offense, and Downs earned 12 targets in Minshew’s one start this year (no more than 7 in any other game this season). Look for Minshew to continue to pepper Downs with short targets this week, and he should again be able to compile his way to a PPR WR3 performance against a middling Jacksonville WR defense (15^th-most WR points allowed per game).

WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 6: vs. Den.): Rice has continued to earn targets at a high rate when he’s on the field, and he posted a top-24 finish last week after finding the end zone for the 2^nd time this season. The concern is that Rice’s playing time has been inconsistent. He was in a route on just 23% of the team’s passing dropbacks in week 5, but every Kansas City skill player is in play this week against a barely-there Broncos defense. Denver ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and the Chiefs have the 2^nd-highest implied Vegas point total for the week. Rice is targeted on more than a third of his routes run, and against this defense, he’s got a chance at another WR2 finish if things break his way this week. There’s a lower floor here than you might be comfortable with, but enough upside to give him strong consideration.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 6: @LAR): Wilson dropped a disappointing dud on us in week 5 with just 1 catch for 18 yards, but I think a bounce-back could be in the offing this week. 15 of Wilson’s 18 targets this season have come vs. zone coverage, and the Rams play zone at one of the highest rates in the league. LA has allowed the 5^th fewest WR points per game, but they also rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA and are nearly a touchdown favorite in this game, so the Cardinals should be throwing. Wilson topped 50 yards in 3 straight games prior to last week’s dud, and I like his chances to get back there this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. NO): Stroud has been easily the most consistent of the rookie QBs so far this season, putting up at least 240 yards in every start and multiple TDs in 3 out of 5. But perhaps the craziest stat about Stroud is that he hasn’t taken a single sack in the last 3 games despite playing behind a beleaguered offensive line. The Saints present a new challenge this week. They’ve allowed the 7^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA. Baker Mayfield was able to throw 3 TDs against these Saints a couple weeks ago, so there is hope, but Stroud has finished higher than QB12 just once. This week, in a tough matchup, doesn’t feel like a good spot to bet on him to finish higher than that again. He’s a QB2 option for week 6.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 6: @TB): Gibbs managers got some cold water dumped on them this week as Detroit head coach Dan Campbell talked up David Montgomery’s role as the team’s workhorse back and referred to Gibbs as a “change of pace” guy. It’s what we’ve already seen play out on the field so far this season, but it still feels like pouring salt in an open wound to hear Campbell say it out loud. Gibbs’ workload in that change of pace role will keep him in the range of flex options for fantasy leagues, but the matchup this week is one that I don’t feel great about for him. The Bucs allow the 12^th-fewest RB points per game, and they rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing running backs. That dicey matchup puts Gibbs on the wrong side of the borderline for me…and that’s if he’s even able to play. He’s still questionable after suffering a hamstring injury late last week that kept him out in week 5.

RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 6: @LAR): James Conner has been placed on IR after suffering a knee injury against the Bengals in week 5, opening a void in the Cardinals’ backfield. Demercado has emerged as the popular waiver wire choice to replace him after tallying 53 yards and a score against Cincy, but things get messier with the return of Keaontay Ingram this week. Ingram was the backup to Conner to open the season, and opened the door to playing time for Demercado with a neck injury he suffered in week 3. Ingram is expected to return this week, and the Cardinals have officially listed him as the starter on the depth chart. The likeliest outcome here is that both backs split the backfield work, with early downs leaning more toward Ingram and passing downs more toward Demercado. Emari ran double the passing routes that Ingram did in the games where both were active, and his 3 receptions last week are just two short of Ingram’s career total of 5. The Cardinals are likely to be significant underdogs in each of their next 4 games, so I’d prioritize Demercado over Ingram as a pickup, especially in PPR leagues, but both will make for dicey start options outside of deep leagues.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 6: @KC): McLaughlin looked explosive in the last two weeks, piling up over 80 scrimmage yards with a TD in each game, but the return of Javonte Williams this week likely causes this to devolve into a messy 3-way committee. With Williams out last week, McLaughlin played only half as many snaps as Samaje Perine, but he made the most of those opportunities with 12 touches on 19 snaps. Williams is off the injury report and will play on Thursday, so I’d expect Jaleel to see closer to 5-8 touches against the Chiefs. That’s just not enough work to trust him in lineups unless you’re desperate.

RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 6: @Hou.): Miller had his best game of the season in week 5, tallying 90 scrimmage yards on 16 touches, but he was out-touched by Alvin Kamara 11-to-2 prior to the Saints going ahead by 3 touchdowns. The bulk of his work came in garbage time. Of course, there’s a chance that there’s more garbage time this week against the Texans, but Houston has been better than expected so far and enters the week as just a 1.5-point underdog. Miller likely doesn’t see the same workload this week and should be kept on the bench.

RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): The Titans have struggled to control games early on this season, and Spears has benefited from those struggles. As the primary receiving back, he inevitably gets more playing time when the Titans are behind on the scoreboard, and that’s resulted in him playing more than 50% of the team snaps in 4 out of 5 games this year. He’s also earned 4+ targets in 4 out of 5 games this year. I don’t like his chances of turning in a strong game against the Ravens even if he hits those marks for a 5^th time. Baltimore allows the 11^th-fewest RB points per game this year, and only two backs have topped 12 PPR points against them on the season (Joe Mixon and Zack Moss). The Titans are 4-point underdogs, so they should be playing from behind and afford Spears his usual workload, but I’d expect that to lead to high single-digit points against the Ravens.

RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 6: @Cin.): Charbonnet still isn’t seeing quite enough work to get real consideration for lineups. He played his lowest snap share of the season in week 4 against the Giants, but he did put up 40 scrimmage yards in that game. He’s done his best work in Seattle’s multi-score wins over the Panthers and Giants, and this week’s game seems unlikely to be a lopsided win as the Bengals got their mojo back last Sunday. Cincy is favored by 3 points in this game. The Bengals do rank 30^th in run defense DVOA, so Charbonnet should have a chance to have success with his opportunities. I’m just not confident that he’ll get enough of them to help your fantasy lineup this week.

WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. NO): Dell isn’t practicing as of Thursday as he tries to clear the concussion protocol. As of now, it seems that he’ll miss this game with the Saints. Normally, I would be bullish on his outlook against the Saints as Dell averages nearly 5 yards per route run against man coverage, and the Saints play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. But with no practice time this week, and the Saints ranking 7^th in pass defense DVOA, I’d be inclined to sit Tank even if he gets cleared in time.

WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Mingo is coming off his best game of the season, putting up 5 catches for 48 yards on 7 targets in Detroit, but it was the first time all season that a healthy Mingo played behind DJ Chark in the WR pecking order. He was down to an 82% route participation rate after being above 90% in each of the first two games of the season. Mingo may have an extra chip on his shoulder this week due to rumors that the team will try to trade for Jerry Jeudy, but Mingo’s best game of the season didn’t earn him a top-36 finish last week. If you believe that the Panthers are better this week with a simplified offense, you could consider Mingo as a WR4 option, but I think the best course of action would be to leave him benched.

WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Johnston was up near a 70% route participation rate in week 4 ahead the Chargers’ bye with Mike Williams sidelined, but he still hasn’t topped 3 targets or 20 yards in a game, and Dallas allows the 4^th-fewest WR points per game. It doesn’t help Johnston that Dallas plays more man coverage than any other defense in the league. Per Roto Underworld, Johnston wins vs. man coverage just 11.1% of the time (121^st-best rate in the league). His breakout probably won’t happen this week.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 6: @Cin.): You probably don’t need me to tell you to sit JSN at this point. He’s reached 5 or more PPR points just once in the first 4 games, and the team refuses to use him down the field. His aDOT for the season is under 4 yards, and the Bengals rank 9^th in the league in pass defense DVOA on short throws. You shouldn’t be counting on a breakout game for Smith-Njigba this week.

TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. NYG): Keep an eye on the injury report here. Both Kincaid and Dawson Knox are listed as questionable and logging limited practices this week. If both play, Kincaid shouldn’t be trusted as anything more than an uninspiring TE2 option, but if Knox sits and Kincaid plays, there’s a little bit more upside for the rookie than usual. The Giants have allowed just the 12^th-fewest TE points per game, but that’s mostly because they haven’t allowed a tight end to score a TD. They’ve given up 8+ PPR points to a tight end in each of the last 3 games. Kincaid might be a fringe TE1 option if Knox sits.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Wk. 6: vs. SF): Deshaun Watson’s status still remains up in the air for this week’s tilt with the 49ers, but the Browns have said that if Watson can’t play, it’ll be PJ Walker who gets the start this time rather than DTR. Thompson-Robinson looked to be in over his head in his first start against Baltimore, and I’d imagine he’d suffer similar struggles if he got a chance against the 49ers.

RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Ind.): Bigsby has handled exactly 3 opportunities in each of the last 3 games, and even if he scores a TD, that kind of workload isn’t going to be helpful in your lineups. He did see 7 carries and 1 target and found the end zone against the Colts in week 1, but nothing about his workload since that game suggests a repeat is likely here.

RB Eric Gray, NYG (Wk. 6: @Buf.): Gray got some extended opportunity last weekend with Saquon Barkley still sidelined, but he turned 13 touches into just 26 scoreless yards, and the Bills rank 13^th in run defense DVOA. Buffalo has struggled with top end backs like De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne all reaching 100 rush yards against them, but I expect they’ll have considerably less trouble with Gray if Barkley is out again. Even if Saquon sits, Gray will continue to split the backfield work with Matt Breida. Barkley has gotten in limited practices to start the week.

RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Tucker has totaled 23 rushing yards on 15 carries in his last 3 games combined, and this week faces a Detroit defense that ranks 4^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game. We can hope that Tucker got himself right over the bye week, but there’s no reason to expect a breakout game here.

RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. Ten.): Mitchell spent the first 5 weeks of the season on IR but looks likely to be activated this week. He beat out Melvin Gordon for a roster spot in training camp, so it’s possible that he immediately supplants Gordon as their RB3, but it’s a role that likely means only a few touches per game when both Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are active, as they should be this week.

RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL (Wk. 6: @LAC): Vaughn is averaging 5 touches per game this season, and while he hasn’t done much with those touches (9.9 total PPR points), the Chargers do allow the 8^th-most RB points per game. The problem for Vaughn is that just 7 of his 25 touches for the year have come in situations where the Cowboys were closer than 28 points apart from their opponents on the scoreboard. His usage has been almost entirely in garbage time, and the point spread in this game is just 2 points, so there shouldn’t be much of that.

WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Palmer has played close to a full-time role in the Bucs last two games, logging route participation rates of 86% and 79% in weeks 3 & 4, but he’s yet to top 3 targets in a game this season. He’s scored 2 TDs already this year, but he’s only reached 10 yards in a game once. The targets in the offense continue to funnel to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and that won’t change this week. If for some reason the hamstring injury Evans suffered in week 4 keeps him out this week, Palmer would bump up to a WR4/5 option, but all reports have suggested that Evans should be back for week 6. 

WR Jaylin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 6: @Buf.): Hyatt’s playing time has been headed in the right direction, and he’s been 2^nd among the Giants’ WRs behind Darius Slayton in routes run in each of the last two games, but he’s been targeted just 5 times on 98 routes run for the season. The problem is that Hyatt is mostly used on clear-out deep routes, and even when he’s able to get open on those routes, the Giants’ o-line isn’t holding up long enough to let Daniel Jones hit Hyatt on those plays. That shouldn’t change this week. No team has allowed more sacks this season than the Giants, and no defense has recorded more sacks than the Bills. Buffalo has racked up 18 sacks in the last 3 weeks, and they should make life miserable for Jones in week 6. Hyatt only needs 1 deep ball to turn in a respectable performance, but I don’t like the chances of Daniel Jones having enough time in the pocket to make that happen. If Jones misses this game and Tyrod Taylor starts instead I don’t think it will change a whole lot for Hyatt.

WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 6: vs. Sea.): Iosivas finally saw his first real opportunities with Tee Higgins sidelined in week 6, and while he made the most of his chances, his role isn’t big enough for fantasy consideration. Iosivas ran just 15 routes and was targeted twice, though he did make a dazzling toe-tap catch (that didn’t count when he was incorrectly ruled out of bounds and Zac Taylor opted not to challenge). He may continue to play an ancillary role until Higgins returns, but it won’t be a big enough role to use him in any lineups.

WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 6: @LV): Douglas is still fighting to clear the concussion protocol ahead of this week’s game, but even if he gets cleared, his limited role could get even smaller this week with the return of Tyquan Thornton from IR.

TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 6: vs. NE): After totaling just 1 catch for 2 yards in the first 4 weeks of the season, Mayer finally broke through with 2 grabs for 39 yards on Monday night against Green Bay. It was a promising performance for the rookie, but his route participation rate (46% in week 5) still leaves something to be desired. Mayer could be an intriguing speculative add for the back half of the season, but you can’t thrust him into lineups just yet.

 Rookies on Byes in Week 6: WRs Jayden Reed & Dontayvion Wicks, GB, TE Luke Musgrave, GB, TE Darnell Washington, PIT

Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Anthony Richardson, IND, QB Will Levis, TEN, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB De’Von Achane, MIA, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Young posted his best game as a pro in week 5, piling up 247 yards and 3 TDs against the Lions, mostly in garbage time. He should be in line for more garbage time with the Dolphins favored by nearly 2 TDs this week. Garbage time passing opportunities don’t automatically mean another good game is coming for Bryce, but the Dolphins rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA on short throws, and Young has the 3^rd-shortest average target depth out of 33 qualified QBs. The Panthers have also talked about simplifying the offense going forward, and if that change delivers positive results Bryce should be able to finish as a mid-range QB2 this week.

RB Christopher Brooks, MIA (Wk. 6: vs. Car.): The Dolphins got devastating news this week when they learned that De’Von Achane’s injury suffered late in week 5 will require a stint on injured reserve for the dynamic runner. Raheem Mostert seems sure to see lots of action going forward, but it remains to be seen how the rest of the backfield will shake out while Achane is sidelined. The Dolphins may get both Salvon Ahmed and Jeff Wilson Jr. back from injury this week, but don’t discount the chances that Christopher Brooks carves out a role for himself. Brooks is a physical downhill runner who usually gets more than what’s blocked for him, and the Dolphins are going to like that even if he doesn’t have the type of speed of the other weapons in this offense. Don’t be surprised when Brooks is used as the closer in any blowout wins, like he was against the Broncos in week 3. Miami is a 2-TD favorite against the Panthers this week, so Brooks could have a prime opportunity for that kind of work this weekend against a Carolina defense that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA. He’s in play as a dart throw in deep leagues and DFS tournaments for week 6, but he’s also worth a waiver claim if you don’t need him this week in case he earns more than just that closer role.

RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): Evans isn’t a guy you can use anywhere right now, but he should be on your radar in deeper leagues, especially dynasty formats. Thus far, the Rams have been content to run Kyren Williams out at RB on more than 80% of their offensive snaps, but he’s been terribly inefficient with his opportunities. He ranks 37^th out of 41 qualified running backs in rushing yards over expectation. If that continues, the Rams may eventually look to improve their output at the position, and Evans could be the guy to get that opportunity. You don’t have to pick him up right this moment, but you should be aware of the situation.

WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 6: @KC): Mims isn’t likely to haul in a deep ball this week against a Kansas City defense that ranks 6^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, but he’s worth a speculative add if he’s still on your waiver wire as the Broncos released Lil’Jordan Humphrey this week and rumors are running rampant that Jerry Jeudy will be traded in short order. If Jeudy is moved, the team may finally have no choice but to give more playing time to the rookie wide receiver who ranks 1^st in the league with nearly 5 yards per route run. You’d be wise to beat the rush to the waiver wire when the Jeudy trade does happen and pick Mims up before it does.

WR Derius Davis, LAC (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Davis is worth keeping an eye on in leagues that give bonus points for return yards. With Mike Williams gone for the season, Davis was used as the WR4, and the team made a point to get him a few gadget touches in the run game with some success. Davis totaled 67 scrimmage yards on 5 touches in week 4. He also serves as the Chargers primary return man, so while he’s merely a deep league stash for now, it wouldn’t take a full role in the offense for him to have value in return yardage leagues. Think of him as the Chargers’ version of KaVontae Turpin.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

If you haven’t noticed by now, we are in the thick of a time that plays a role in the confidence pool, especially season-long pools – bye weeks!

This can play big in your season long pools. If you have had a solid start and are sitting comfortably towards the top of the standings, you are loving bye weeks as the top numbers aren’t in play! You can’t have 15 and 16 point games where there are only 14 games played in a week!

On the flip side, if you need to make up ground, you need to make sure you hit as many picks as you can in a week.

Lucky for you, you’re reading my picks, so you’re good to go ?

Week 6 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

15 – KANSAS CITY over Denver – A week of dramatic, close, competitive NFL games … … … will begin on Sunday, not Thursday.

14 – MIAMI over Carolina – Welcome to the league, Bryce! We need 64 points from you this week.

13 – BUFFALO over New York Giants – An easy way for the Bills to transition into a season without Matt Milano is to play the Giants

12 – Philadelphia over NEW YORK JETS – Another nationally televised game based on a quarterback who won’t be playing.

11 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Arizona – The Rams offense seemed pretty tough BEFORE Cooper Kupp came back.

10 – JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis – The Colts don’t win in Jacksonville, and that’s even when they have the better team!

9 – Baltimore over TENNESSEE – I feel that the London crowd will be offended by player nicknamed King Henry crowd so the refs will lean towards the Ravens.

8 – San Francisco over CLEVELAND – Hard to see picking against the 9ers in any situation at this point.

7 – LAS VEGAS over New England – Hopefully the Raiders will keep the ball out of Jakobi Meyeres if the game is close late.

6 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Dallas – How quickly has the allure of the Cowboys disappeared?

5 – New Orleans over HOUSTON – The Saints just seem to find a way to win

4 – ATLANTA over Washington – It’s a home game so obviously you can’t go against Desmond Ridder!

3 – CINCINNATI over Seattle – OK, I’m back with the Bengals. My BOLD PREDICTION of the week is that even with the slow start, THE BENGALS WILL WIN THE AFC NORTH.

2 – TAMPA BAY over Detroit – This could be a surprisingly fun game

1 – CHICAGO over Minnesota – If you think the Bears will win at all this season, keep it on the one-point linen

If you haven’t noticed by now, we are in the thick of a time that plays a role in the confidence pool, especially season-long pools – bye weeks!

This can play big in your season long pools. If you have had a solid start and are sitting comfortably towards the top of the standings, you are loving bye weeks as the top numbers aren’t in play! You can’t have 15 and 16 point games when there are only 14 games played in a week!

On the flip side, if you need to make up ground, you need to make sure you hit as many picks as you can in a week.

Lucky for you, you’re reading my picks, so you’re good to go ?

Week 6 – HERE WE GO!!!!

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14 – CHICAGO over Jacksonville – This is more about how close all the games are this week than how confident we should be about the Bears.

13 – Houston over NEW ENGLAND – Drake Maye will be a solid quarterback but won’t have the tools to put up enough points against Houston this week.

12 – PHILADELPHIA over Cleveland – Arguably a battle of the two most frustrating teams for their fan bases this season.

11 – BALTIMORE over Washington – The beltway battle is going to be fun to watch for a long time with Lamar vs Jayden

10 – GREEN BAY over Arizona – The Cardinals don’t have enough to win two big road games in a row.

9 – LAS VEGAS over Pittsburgh – FINALLY Aidan O’Connell is back under center where he belongs! My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE RAIDERS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.

8 – Buffalo over NEW YORK JETS – Obviously there are a lot of internal issues with the Jets that will overshadow much needed preparations for this week.

7 – SEATTLE over San Francisco – The Seahawks need this big win after last week’s big loss.

6 – DENVER over Los Angeles Chargers – The Broncos are winning games … … … I don’t know why.

5 – Tampa Bay over NEW ORLEANS – Our best to everyone in Florida.

4 – Detroit over DALLAS – The Lions have had this one circled on their calendars for a long time!

3 – TENNESSEE over Indianapolis – This is based on Anthony Richardson not playing. If he plays, switch to the Colts on this line.

2 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Cincinnati – As we know, the Giants should be on the one-point line if we think they’ll win … unless …

1 – CAROLINA over Atlanta – … we also think the Panthers will win in the same week as well.